Jump to content

Allen 3000 yards. + 1000 yards


Tatonka68

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

I think their is a chance Allen could pass for over 3000 yards and rush for 1000 yards and score a combined 38 TDS. What do you think?

 

Thats too low.  If you look at the games Allen played after coming back from injury and project that out to a full season he would already have a similar stat line for passing and rushing yards.  And that was with a weak group of receivers and a bad OL as a Rookie QB.  

 

I think Allen will eclipse 4000 yards passing this year.  With his passing numbers up, I am not sure he will average the 62.5 yards rushing per game it will take tot get to 1000 yards rushing, so I know he can easily get to 1000 yards, but I don't expect him to have quite that many.

 

My prediction is 4000 yards passing, 700 yards rushing and I do think he can and will get into the near 38 combined TD range.  Im expecting 10 or so just from rushing and then can easily see him put up another 25-30 passing TD's.  

 

That may seem like unlikely to some, but I feel pretty strongly he will get to or at least flirt with these numbers this next season.  

Edited by Alphadawg7
  • Like (+1) 3
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't see 1,000 rushing yards but I do think this is a break out season for Allen.  Look at what Allen did in the second half of the year with no supporting cast.  This will be his second year in the offense,  he should have a decent O-line in front of him so he's not running for his life every snap,  a running game to keep the defense honest,  give him a couple receivers who can get separation and catch the ball, and I think Allen is going to surprise a lot of the "experts" with what he can do. 

 

I think we are on the verge of being a good football team again for the first time in two decades.

  • Like (+1) 2
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Thats too low.  If you look at the games Allen played after coming back from injury and project that out to a full season he would already have a similar stat line for passing and rushing yards.  And that was with a weak group of receivers and a bad OL as a Rookie QB.  

 

I think Allen will eclipse 4000 yards passing this year.  With his passing numbers up, I am not sure he will average the 62.5 yards rushing per game it will take tot get to 1000 yards rushing, so I know he can easily get to 1000 yards, but I don't expect him to have quite that many.

 

My prediction is 4000 yards passing, 700 yards rushing and I do think he can and will get into the near 38 combined TD range.  Im expecting 10 or so just from rushing and then can easily see him put up another 25-30 passing TD's.  

 

That may seem like unlikely to some, but I feel pretty strongly he will get to or at least flirt with these numbers this next season.  

 

I like more passing....and less running. Only at key moments, and get down or OB. 

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm also optimistic that this will be Allen's breakout year.  I'm thinking 3600 yards passing and 800 yards rushing.  Figure on 25 - 30 passing TD's & 10 - 15 rushing TD's.

 

I suspect that Allen & Jackson are the start of an NFL trend where a QB's run game is a bigger part of the offense.  And it won't all be read option plays - there will be a lot of diversity in HOW teams utilize their running QB.  In the case of Jackson the Ravens will employ designed runs as the focus of their offense.  The Bills will rely more on classic QB scrambles to generate chunk rushing yards by Allen.   

 

Either way a running QB will increasingly be a significant part of a teams offense.  In the case of the Bills I look for Allen's rushing TD's to be as high as 15 as he is probably the best at the QB sneak for those short yardage TD's and his running ability will be deadly in the Bills red zone offense next year.  As for injury's, who knows.  That's the big bugaboo in all this.  But I think Allen can rush for 50 yards a game, most of which will be critical yardage, AND stay healthy over the course of a season.  Only time will tell if my optimism is warranted.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I don't see 1,000 rushing yards but I do think this is a break out season for Allen.  Look at what Allen did in the second half of the year with no supporting cast.  This will be his second year in the offense,  he should have a decent O-line in front of him so he's not running for his life every snap,  a running game to keep the defense honest,  give him a couple receivers who can get separation and catch the ball, and I think Allen is going to surprise a lot of the "experts" with what he can do. 

 

I think we are on the verge of being a good football team again for the first time in two decades.

 

Inigo, I tend to agree and one of my absolute favorite avatars.  Most top running QB’s go for somewhere in the 500’s.  He may beat it, but with a good line and better WR/TE’s, he can definitely get 3000 yards passing and maybe 600-700 yards rushing.  We’ll know a bit more after FA and the Draft.

  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Very possible. He is likely the best overall running QB. Power, Speed, agility , but his secret weapon is he can hit any spot on the field from anywhere on the field so he really puts certain defenders in a bind, they'll freeze up and that half second causes a Defensive Breakdown.

 

I expect a big time jump in year 2 , his first full NFL offseason , it was a big jump from his  Wyoming training , now he's getting top of the line coaching and mentiorship and this will be his first full NFL offseason and I think he can benefit more than other QBs and his upside is just ridiculously high in so many areas. He checks alot of the boxes for Legit Franchise QB material. His moxie, swag, confidence and natural leadership are almost as important as his on field ability

  • Like (+1) 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I'm also optimistic that this will be Allen's breakout year.  I'm thinking 3600 yards passing and 800 yards rushing.  Figure on 25 - 30 passing TD's & 10 - 15 rushing TD's.

 

I suspect that Allen & Jackson are the start of an NFL trend where a QB's run game is a bigger part of the offense.  And it won't all be read option plays - there will be a lot of diversity in HOW teams utilize their running QB.  In the case of Jackson the Ravens will employ designed runs as the focus of their offense.  The Bills will rely more on classic QB scrambles to generate chunk rushing yards by Allen.   

 

Either way a running QB will increasingly be a significant part of a teams offense.  In the case of the Bills I look for Allen's rushing TD's to be as high as 15 as he is probably the best at the QB sneak for those short yardage TD's and his running ability will be deadly in the Bills red zone offense next year.  As for injury's, who knows.  That's the big bugaboo in all this.  But I think Allen can rush for 50 yards a game, most of which will be critical yardage, AND stay healthy over the course of a season.  Only time will tell if my optimism is warranted.  

For comparison fun:

 

Lamar Jackson:  

Ceiling:  Michael Vick.  

 

Josh Allen:

Ceiling:  Steve Young.

 

I keep saying that the QB Allen most compares to IMO is Steve Young.  I think he is going to be a feared passer and a feared scrambler just like Young was.  

  • Like (+1) 2
  • Awesome! (+1) 1
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 he should have a decent O-line in front of him 

 

 

Based on what? I'm expecting them to attempt to address it, but we have no reason at all at this point to believe it will be better.

 

Everyone was talking about WR for a year now, and what did they do to address that last year?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

For comparison fun:

 

Lamar Jackson:  

Ceiling:  Michael Vick.  

 

Josh Allen:

Ceiling:  Steve Young.

 

I keep saying that the QB Allen most compares to IMO is Steve Young.  I think he is going to be a feared passer and a feared scrambler just like Young was.  

 

Allen reminds me much more of Elway.  Young had a pretty weak arm.  Elway could elude you and then throw a laser beam down field to demoralize you.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

Based on what? I'm expecting them to attempt to address it, but we have no reason at all at this point to believe it will be better.

 

Everyone was talking about WR for a year now, and what did they do to address that last year?

 

Fair point ODB.

 

I think its likely with the cap space and draft picks we will add to the roster in those areas and not subtract.  I can't imagine the O-line or WR groups being worse than they were last year.  I am so glad Benjamin is gone.  In all my years of being a Bills fan, I have never hated a Bills player until Kelvin Benjamin.

 

Edited by Inigo Montoya
  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

For comparison fun:

 

Lamar Jackson:  

Ceiling:  Michael Vick.  

 

Josh Allen:

Ceiling:  Steve Young.

 

I keep saying that the QB Allen most compares to IMO is Steve Young.  I think he is going to be a feared passer and a feared scrambler just like Young was.  

I hate being Debbie downer but you realize Steve Young is considered one of the most accurate qbs ever right?  He completely 71% of his passes his last year in college when teams were actually allowed to play physical.  

 

Also, how many qbs in history have done this?  I love the enthusiasm but I’m not sure how realistic it is.

  • Like (+1) 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Fair point ODB.

 

I think its likely with the cap space and draft picks we will add to the roster in those areas and not subtract.  I can't imagine the O-line or WR groups being worse than they were last year.  I am so happy Benjamin is gone.  In all my years of being a Bills fan, I have never hated a Bills player before Benjamin...

 

You were leaning toward the positive, not the dark side. Nothing wrong with that! I love it! We have plenty of resources to address our needs on offense. Will they get it all right? Probably not, but hopefully we get more right than wrong. 

 

Some people will complain if we win the next five Super Bowls, but only cover the spread four times. 

  • Like (+1) 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

He's always reminded me more of Favre tbh. The passing, obviously, not the running. I loved watching Favre play which is probably why I love watching Allen.

 

It's funny, I was watching his combine trials the other day and he has the weirdest running style during his sprints, looks really awkward and unnatural. Lots of the comments mention it as well. Yet when he's out there running on the field he looks so natural.

 

I've been watching quite a few Allen vids lately, there's some great ones on YouTube. He's easily my fav player now and I really hope he ends up being a great one for us. He has just the right kind of cockiness that a QB needs, the kind that's confident but never makes him a bad teammate to have. 

 

Oh, and that TD pass against the Jags was something to behold. 70+ yards with defenders all around him with almost a flick of the wrist. If he starts doing that sort of ***** regularly this season he'll become a favourite of many neutrals around the country. People love entertaining players and he's certainly one of those

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, White Linen said:

 

Allen reminds me much more of Elway.  Young had a pretty weak arm.  Elway could elude you and then throw a laser beam down field to demoralize you.  

 

Wasnt so much comparing arm strength as I was style of play.  Downfield threat, very dangerous runner.  But yes, Elway is also a good comparison, but Young was a better runner than Elway.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I hate being Debbie downer but you realize Steve Young is considered one of the most accurate qbs ever right?  He completely 71% of his passes his last year in college when teams were actually allowed to play physical.  

 

Also, how many qbs in history have done this?  I love the enthusiasm but I’m not sure how realistic it is.

Young completed 52% his rookie year in the NFL.  Same as Allen.  

  • Awesome! (+1) 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I hate being Debbie downer but you realize Steve Young is considered one of the most accurate qbs ever right?  He completely 71% of his passes his last year in college when teams were actually allowed to play physical.  

 

Also, how many qbs in history have done this?  I love the enthusiasm but I’m not sure how realistic it is.

 

Hence the use of the word "Ceiling" :nana: 

 

And honestly, the whole inaccuracy thing is repeated without context so much and its not really a fair thing to say without knowing the whole story.  

  1. He never committed to football in HS, hence why he wasnt recruited.
  2. He played at a JC first.
  3. He then played at Wyoming.  

So let's not overlook he has never at any point had really good coaching and has spent most of his development time as a Raw prospect under mediocre or worse coaching at every level of football he has played before the NFL.  This kid really responds to better coaching too, just look at the huge strides he made during draft process with Jordan last year and how much he elevated his game in the 4 weeks sitting while hurt.  

 

Additionally, he has never played with any real talent in college or the NFL.  HIs WR's in college were awful and let him down all the time. His OL was awful too.  Every time that team was on the field against a decent school they were grossly out matched talent wise.  Steve Young looked terrible for the Bucs until he got to the 49ers and became a top 10 (IMO top 5) all time great QB.  It can not be overlooked the lack of personnel around him.  QB is important, but football is a team sport and pretty hard for a QB to overcome no weapons and no pass protection.  

 

The inaccuracy thing is a media narrative that is strictly rooted in stat sheet checking that no one can get away from now.  Yet, on the field, this kids accuracy this year was no where near as bad as it was made out to be.  His final comp % is misleading and is loaded with drops, great passes overturned by penalty, and receiver miscommunications.  And it was clear just how much KB starting was holding Allen back as he really found his groove even more once they cut him.

 

So for me, I don't see an accuracy issue outside of the typical things that come with any rookie QB.  This kid is no longer going to have the accuracy knock on him after the 2019 season once people see how well he plays with actual talent around him.  Better pass protection, better targets and improved run game around him is going to be night and day.  Thats my opinion at least, but I am supremely confident in that opinion.   

 

 

Edited by Alphadawg7
  • Like (+1) 2
  • Thank you (+1) 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Wasnt so much comparing arm strength as I was style of play.  Downfield threat, very dangerous runner.  But yes, Elway is also a good comparison, but Young was a better runner than Elway.  

 

I was also comparing style of play and Elway was just a tick behind Young as a runner.  I think when you add in the fact Allen can turn that head around and sling it - for that reason he reminds me more of an Elway type of QB.  Young was a more touch and accuracy passer that made him effect.  Elway seemed to throw everything hard and the receivers had to get used to that.  

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Fair point ODB.

 

I think its likely with the cap space and draft picks we will add to the roster in those areas and not subtract.  I can't imagine the O-line or WR groups being worse than they were last year.  I am so glad Benjamin is gone.  In all my years of being a Bills fan, I have never hated a Bills player until Kelvin Benjamin.

 

 

I agree, KB was one of the most frustrating players to ever watch. I hope you're right, and I hope they've learned from past mistakes in not really addressing concerns at position groups. 

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

For comparison fun:

 

Lamar Jackson:  

Ceiling:  Michael Vick.  

 

Josh Allen:

Ceiling:  Steve Young.

 

I keep saying that the QB Allen most compares to IMO is Steve Young.  I think he is going to be a feared passer and a feared scrambler just like Young was.  

 

Steve Young was always pretty accurate though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

For comparison fun:

 

Lamar Jackson:  

Ceiling:  Michael Vick.  

 

Josh Allen:

Ceiling:  Steve Young.

 

I keep saying that the QB Allen most compares to IMO is Steve Young.  I think he is going to be a feared passer and a feared scrambler just like Young was.  

And for the non racist comparison....

 

Allen at this point is most comparable to Roethlisberger, Steve McNair, Randall Cunningham, and Daunte Culpepper.  All big strong armed guys that ran early in thier careers.

 

Jackson’s ceiling might be as high as Tarkenton or Staubach both of which had 57% career completion percentages(in a far different era I will give you). Jackson is a far better thrower than Vick but without the cannon Vick had. And at this point in his career is more like Elway with less of an arm.  

 

  • Haha (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Those stats sound like 5-11 for the bills. That’s not what we want. If Allen is rushing for 1000 yards it means we have no run game, and the o line still sucks bad and he’s running for his life. 

We want 4,000 passing and like 300-350 rushing. 

Also as others mentioned he’s not going to stay very healthy running for 1,000 

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I'm also optimistic that this will be Allen's breakout year.  I'm thinking 3600 yards passing and 800 yards rushing.  Figure on 25 - 30 passing TD's & 10 - 15 rushing TD's.

 

I suspect that Allen & Jackson are the start of an NFL trend where a QB's run game is a bigger part of the offense.  And it won't all be read option plays - there will be a lot of diversity in HOW teams utilize their running QB.  In the case of Jackson the Ravens will employ designed runs as the focus of their offense.  The Bills will rely more on classic QB scrambles to generate chunk rushing yards by Allen.   

 

Either way a running QB will increasingly be a significant part of a teams offense.  In the case of the Bills I look for Allen's rushing TD's to be as high as 15 as he is probably the best at the QB sneak for those short yardage TD's and his running ability will be deadly in the Bills red zone offense next year.  As for injury's, who knows.  That's the big bugaboo in all this.  But I think Allen can rush for 50 yards a game, most of which will be critical yardage, AND stay healthy over the course of a season.  Only time will tell if my optimism is warranted.  

Those are MVP stats.  10-15 rushing TD's is a lot for a top flight RB, let alone a QB. I'm excited to see him play this coming season, but that's seems a little out there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, klos63 said:

Those are MVP stats.  10-15 rushing TD's is a lot for a top flight RB, let alone a QB. I'm excited to see him play this coming season, but that's seems a little out there.

 

Not really.  Looking just at my guess for his passing stats:  25 - 30 TD's would have placed Allen somewhere between #9 - #13 among 2018 QB's and 3600 yards would have placed him at #18 among 2018 QB's.  Solid, but hardly MVP passing stats.

 

And I agree that scoring 10 - 15 TD's on the ground would be special but he scored 8 this year in about 11 full games so 10 seems very doable.  Sure 15 would be a reach but given how effectively Allen ran the QB sneak he'll be called on to convert most of the TD's when the Bills are inside the 1 yard line.  I just think that on passing plays the Bills 3rd check down will be Allen running with the ball.  This will make the offense very dangerous, especially in the red zone.  So while my guess at Allen's production in 2019 is optimistic it's also very doable. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Tatonka68 said:

I think their is a chance Allen could pass for over 3000 yards and rush for 1000 yards and score a combined 38 TDS. What do you think?

!,000 yds rushing LOL, In no way do I want my QB running that dam much. He will have a much larger percentage to get hurt and I would not think he would last many years with that much rushing. I'm fine with him escaping pressure and taking off when he has to and I get it, he has wheels and is exciting, but for that many yards I'd have to assume that would put his season and career in jeopardy.

 

Put that arm to good use and do what you can to sure up the Oline and hope for anywhere between 3000-5000 yds passing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Like someone else pointed out, if Allen is running that much then the o-line will be a mess, his supporting cast not much improved and his progression as a QB will have failed. 

300-350 yards would be the sweet spot. Enough of a running threat to earn some first downs when the plays break down.

The most important thing is not yards it is turnovers and then TDs.  I don't care if he ever breaks 300 yards passing if he has 30 TD and 10 picks.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Not really.  Looking just at my guess for his passing stats:  25 - 30 TD's would have placed Allen somewhere between #9 - #13 among 2018 QB's and 3600 yards would have placed him at #18 among 2018 QB's.  Solid, but hardly MVP passing stats.

 

And I agree that scoring 10 - 15 TD's on the ground would be special but he scored 8 this year in about 11 full games so 10 seems very doable.  Sure 15 would be a reach but given how effectively Allen ran the QB sneak he'll be called on to convert most of the TD's when the Bills are inside the 1 yard line.  I just think that on passing plays the Bills 3rd check down will be Allen running with the ball.  This will make the offense very dangerous, especially in the red zone.  So while my guess at Allen's production in 2019 is optimistic it's also very doable. 

combine that with 800 yards rushing and 15 more TD's and he's in the MVP discussion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I completely agree with White Linen; out of all the QB's I've ever seen, Allen most closely resembles John Elway. Except that so far, Allen is the more accurate of the two, and I believe will prove to be the more accurate of the two going forward. Don't  believe me? Elway's completion percentage his rookie year was 47.5%. Look it up. In fact, Elway didn't get over the 60% mark until his eleventh year in the league, and he only surpassed it two other times! But like Allen he was very mobile in his younger years and really dangerous out of the pocket extending plays. I remember seeing Elway in his rookie year and thinking he looked extremely raw as a passer, much more so than Allen.

Edited by EricScott
  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, EricScott said:

I completely agree with White Linen; out of all the QB's I've ever seen, Allen most closely resembles John Elway. Except that so far, Allen is the more accurate of the two, and I believe will prove to be the more accurate of the two going forward. Don't  believe me? Elway's completion percentage his rookie year was 47.5%. Look it up. In fact, Elway didn't get over the 60% mark until his eleventh year in the league, and he only surpassed it two other times! But like Allen he was very mobile in his younger years and really dangerous out of the pocket extending plays. I remember seeing Elway in his rookie year and thinking he looked extremely raw as a passer, much more so than Allen.

Good post. Different eras so the comp percentage comparison is hard to truly evaluate. 1983 college QB play was not what it is today. But the Elway comparison is valid. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

 

And I agree that scoring 10 - 15 TD's on the ground would be special but he scored 8 this year in about 11 full games so 10 seems very doable.  Sure 15 would be a reach but given how effectively Allen ran the QB sneak he'll be called on to convert most of the TD's when the Bills are inside the 1 yard line.  

As well he should from the 1 or closer. One of the dumbest, most frustrating plays for me to watch is handing the ball off 5 or 6 yds deep from the 1 and getting stuffed in the backfield. I would put 2 huge backup linemen in the backfield right behind the qb and push him in.?

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

Based on what? I'm expecting them to attempt to address it, but we have no reason at all at this point to believe it will be better.

 

Everyone was talking about WR for a year now, and what did they do to address that last year?

It wont be too difficult to get better on the Oline.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...