Hypothetical : Trade down in 1st with Raiders?

[Bill Murray]

Would i do this?  Yes.  Would the Raiders do this?  I think unlikely.  

[BuffaloHokie13]

I went with in a heartbeat, though if a premium player fell to 9 for some reason I definitely wouldn't.

 

Based on the empirical trade value chart trading 9 for 24 & 27 is the Raiders paying a 16% premium, which is slightly high for a pick outside the top 5, historically.

 

I guess what I mean to say is if we were on the clock and a premium player for us wasn't there I'd do it in a heartbeat. Well ahead of draft time I think I'd be looking for more though.

Edited January 17, 2019 by BuffaloHokie13

[mikemac2001]

I’d want there first next year in any trade down deal 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

I would expect either very few trades this year or extremely low value trades.  The draft chart doesn't mean much this year.  

 

Very few teams need QBs, and there are very few QBs worth drafting high up.  That drives the trade market.  With the decreased emphasis on needing to get to the top, there will be fewer trades and the value will go down.  

[nucci]

that point chart means nothing. just numbers someone made up

[BuffaloRebound]

Would not be surprised if Gruden makes a play for Murray or Haskins.  Haskins at 4 at best pass rusher at 9.  Or if Haskins goes before 4, best pass rusher at 4 and Murray at 9.  Gruden is basically the owner of the Raiders and can do whatever he wants.  And the fan base doesn’t matter because they don’t even have a home.  

[JMF2006]

24 and 27 plus this years third round or next years second round.

 

I doubt they(Raiders) trade up but I see Beane trading down unless he really feels the 9th pick will be a future superstar

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, nucci said:

that point chart means nothing. just numbers someone made up

 

It's probably a good baseline but it changes year to year. This year there are no consensus top 10 QBs so we wouldn't get more than #24 and #27 in this scenario. I personally would do it without hesitation but I don't know who the Raiders would trade up for. If anything they would do it for a defensive player over a QB. They have the draft capital to afford a move like that.

[BillsMafia13]

If theres no blue chippers definitely but work for a 1st next year.  Since the first round is so top heavy with them, sign a premier DE/DT to give us some flexibility.  Raiders will stink next year too so

[Mojo44]

 For me it all boils down to who is available at nine when the bills pick. The only way this works is that they make the trade literally at the last moment when the number nine pick is up or the player(s) they targeted at 9 are already gone. It does not always make sense to go all in on quantity versus quality in these situations.

[Chuck Wagon]

I see the Redskins as potentially the most likely trade partner.  If the Raiders want a QB, the sensible thing to do is just pick him at #4, unless Jags / Giants move in front of them.

 

The rumor today was the Redskins have begun talking to teams about moving in front of Denver to get a QB.  Moving to 15, with Haskins / Murray / Lock / Jones all off the board by the time we hit the clock would be best case scenario IMO.

[BillsFan1988]

16 hours ago, bigfootindy said:

Very early, just hypothetical trade.  Maybe the Raiders want a QB before the Broncos/Dolphins have a shot.  Trade chart shows:

 

Bills 9th: 1350

Raiders picks: 740 + 680 = 1420 (About a 5% premium)

 

Thoughts?

I say they kick in there 2nd (35) for our  3rd (75). So we get 24, 27 & 35 for 9, 75.  

 

24- Christian Wilkins DT Clem

27- Marquise Brown Wr OKLA

35- TJ Hockenson TE Iowa

40- Hakeem Butler WR Iowa ST.

 

Man this kind of draft can do wonders for our Future.

[Alphadawg7]

You need more poll options.  I mean it depends whose on the board at 9 IMO.  

 

But at first glance, I don’t like it.  I would rather have a blue chip prospect than 2 riskier ones.  We need talent, not more bodies.  We have 10 picks already and tons of cap space to fill holes in FA.  

 

So give me talent and a more likely impact player.  

[LABILLBACKER]

Gruden has made some dumb moves so far. Why not, but sweeten it with a 4th....

[BillsFan1988]

15 hours ago, TPS said:

 

They did this for their QB of the future (boy, did theirs come early!).  I really don't think there's anyone at 9 the Raiders will want.  If anything, I could see Gruden trading the Cards for the #1 pick to get Bosa.

If MLB Devin White still available at #9 i can see the Raiders moving up for him. There's a 50/50 chance of DW being there.

[freddyjj]

If Quinnen Williams, Josh Allen or Clelin Ferrell are there at 9, I pass on pre-determined trade (like the Broncos last year did to us at #5 when they took Bradley Chubb who dropped).

 

With Shaq and Jerry being potential FAs at end of 2019, adding an edge pass rusher is a much bigger priority than most think.  And Q Williams will be a very disruptive 3T immediately and help on both run and pass downs.  

Edited January 17, 2019 by freddyjj

[Augie]

I think Gruden knows has has holes all over and needs as many picks as he can get. But you never know.....maybe if he fell in love with a QB who dropped?  Any chance that could ever happen? Gruden is to QB’s what Rex is to feet! 

[Mark Vader]

16 hours ago, bigfootindy said:

Very early, just hypothetical trade.  Maybe the Raiders want a QB before the Broncos/Dolphins have a shot.  Trade chart shows:

 

Bills 9th: 1350

Raiders picks: 740 + 680 = 1420 (About a 5% premium)

 

Thoughts?

Thank you!

 

I've brought this up a few times before in previous threads.

 

If the Bills decide to use the 9th pick on a player they feel is the best for the team, fine. However, if they were to trade down with the Raiders, I would love it.

 

I think the Bills could use all of the picks they can get.

[HappyDays]

42 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

I see the Redskins as potentially the most likely trade partner.  If the Raiders want a QB, the sensible thing to do is just pick him at #4, unless Jags / Giants move in front of them.

 

The rumor today was the Redskins have begun talking to teams about moving in front of Denver to get a QB.  Moving to 15, with Haskins / Murray / Lock / Jones all off the board by the time we hit the clock would be best case scenario IMO.

 

Yep this would be my target as well. Even better if they are competing with Denver. We could probably get a 2nd in this trade if we give back one of our 4ths. High 2nd round has a lot of value in this draft IMO.

[Mark Vader]

14 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

The Raiders don't want a QB at 4 but need one desperately at 9?

Doesn't have to be a QB, could be a player that fills an important need.

 

You know how Gruden "loves" every player he sees. He's crazy enough to do something like this.

[LSHMEAB]

18 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

If Quinnen Williams, Josh Allen or Clelin Ferrell are there at 9, I pass on pre-determined trade (like the Broncos last year did to us at #5 when they took Bradley Chubb who dropped).

 

With Shaq and Jerry being potential FAs at end of 2019, adding and edge pass rusher is a much bigger priority than most think.  And Q Williams will be a very disruptive 3T immediately and help on both run and pass downs.  

I would say our edge pass rush wasn't particularly good in 2018 and it's only going to get worse unless we address the issue. Hughes is getting up there and is an impending FA(as you said). Shaq is not a great pass rusher. Lorax is just about done. I'd like to double down on the sentiment that pass rush is likely a much greater priority than fans would think.

 

It also happens to be most important aspect of a defense in this football era. The only way to contain the top QB's is by getting in their mug all day. Ferrell please!

[freddyjj]

12 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I would say our edge pass rush wasn't particularly good in 2018 and it's only going to get worse unless we address the issue. Hughes is getting up there and is an impending FA(as you said). Shaq is not a great pass rusher. Lorax is just about done. I'd like to double down on the sentiment that pass rush is likely a much greater priority than fans would think.

 

It also happens to be most important aspect of a defense in this football era. The only way to contain the top QB's is by getting in their mug all day. Ferrell please!

Agreed my friend.  Not to mention, by drafting one here, that we get a 5th year option on an impact player at a very expensive position.  

 

Because of that I would sign FA C, RT, RB or OG as these are not very expensive positions.  And draft LT, DE, 3T, WR and CB as these are premium costs to cap.  We are set at QB for now.

[Mark Vader]

15 hours ago, rodneykm said:

I get that the chart says we get a premium, but I'm not feeling it. Maybe a 1st this year, 3rd and their 1st next year. 

 

If the Raiders were to trade their first round pick in 2020, the NFL executives would howl.

 

After scheduling the 2020 NFL Draft to be held in Las Vegas, the last thing they want to see is the host team's fans not getting a chance to cheer their team when they make their first round selection.

 

It's all about the optics.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Would’ve traded that pick for Mack or Cooper...

 

hmm two late firsts, depends on who is there at 9 and if someone has a better deal

[ctk232]

17 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

Nope.. I want a extra 2 this year or a 1 next year on top of both those 1’s 

Gruden can afford it 

The Raiders context would lead me to also want a 2 this year, or 1 next year - we'd essentially be giving them the chance to have two top 10 picks, and they certainly have the capital to ante up another pick for it. 

[Albany,n.y.]

Let's trade pick 9 for picks 4, 24 & 27.  Considering how ridiculous it is that we're up to 3 pages answering an illogical question, we might as well dream that it's like Draft Day the movie and make the trade as absurd as possible.

Edited January 17, 2019 by Albany,n.y.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

I'd like to double down on the sentiment that pass rush is likely a much greater priority than fans would think.

 

I'm sure the Bills agree. A couple inside sources on this board that I trust said they tried to trade for Mack. Obviously the asking price ended up too high but that leads me to believe they are trying to improve the pass rush. That is the priority on defense.

[Bill from NYC]

I think I might settle for a swap of 9 for 24, along with a 2nd round pick and a 3rd round pick this year and a #1 next year.

Edited January 17, 2019 by Bill from NYC

[mannc]

4 hours ago, BillsMafia13 said:

If theres no blue chippers definitely but work for a 1st next year.  Since the first round is so top heavy with them, sign a premier DE/DT to give us some flexibility.  Raiders will stink next year too so

If there’s no blue chipper available at 9, then teams aren’t going to want to give up much to move up.  See how that works?

 

And the Raiders aren’t trading next year’s first rounder.  They are going to suck again this year and it’s going to be a QB-heavy draft.

[TPS]

3 hours ago, BillsFan1988 said:

If MLB Devin White still available at #9 i can see the Raiders moving up for him. There's a 50/50 chance of DW being there.

If they liked someone that much, then why not take at 4?

Also, I don't think they would pay a premium for anyone but a QB.

[BillsfaninSB]

3 hours ago, BillsFan1988 said:

I say they kick in there 2nd (35) for our  3rd (75). So we get 24, 27 & 35 for 9, 75.  

 

24- Christian Wilkins DT Clem

27- Marquise Brown Wr OKLA

35- TJ Hockenson TE Iowa

40- Hakeem Butler WR Iowa ST.

 

Man this kind of draft can do wonders for our Future.

 

I would sign-off on this. 

Edited January 17, 2019 by BillsfaninSB

[BillsMafia13]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

If there’s no blue chipper available at 9, then teams aren’t going to want to give up much to move up.  See how that works?

 

And the Raiders aren’t trading next year’s first rounder.  They are going to suck again this year and it’s going to be a QB-heavy draft.

So teams only trade up for blue chip players?  Didnt the saints trade up to 14 for marcus davenport? Didnt the bills trade up for Josh Allen? Talented but not a blue chip, blue chip is subjective and some teams might want to move up.  See how that works?

  Also the Raiders have at least two 1st rounders next year.  

[mannc]

8 minutes ago, BillsMafia13 said:

So teams only trade up for blue chip players?  Didnt the saints trade up to 14 for marcus davenport? Didnt the bills trade up for Josh Allen? Talented but not a blue chip, blue chip is subjective and some teams might want to move up.  See how that works?

  Also the Raiders have at least two 1st rounders next year.  

Both valid points.  Forgot about the Raiders other first next year, although it’s likely to be in the 20’s.

[BillsMafia13]

15 minutes ago, mannc said:

Both valid points.  Forgot about the Raiders other first next year, although it’s likely to be in the 20’s.

I must be getting old because all I want is a monster oline now.  If anyone with knowledge of college ball sees oline talent being there around 25ish im all about it.  Just not another Cyrus K

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

On 1/16/2019 at 6:55 PM, bigfootindy said:

Very early, just hypothetical trade.  Maybe the Raiders want a QB before the Broncos/Dolphins have a shot.  Trade chart shows:

 

Bills 9th: 1350

Raiders picks: 740 + 680 = 1420 (About a 5% premium)

 

Thoughts?

 

Who were the 8 selected in front of Buffalo? Who would the Raiders want to trade up for?

[rodneykm]

20 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

If the Raiders were to trade their first round pick in 2020, the NFL executives would howl.

 

After scheduling the 2020 NFL Draft to be held in Las Vegas, the last thing they want to see is the host team's fans not getting a chance to cheer their team when they make their first round selection.

 

It's all about the optics.

 

Extremely good point there for sure. 

[LSHMEAB]

On 1/17/2019 at 10:17 AM, HappyDays said:

 

I'm sure the Bills agree. A couple inside sources on this board that I trust said they tried to trade for Mack. Obviously the asking price ended up too high but that leads me to believe they are trying to improve the pass rush. That is the priority on defense.

I became a big time DE/pass rush guy after watching Chris Kelsay and Brian Dennehy playing a prominent role. They both seemed to occasionally get pressure but never get the sack. I want killers(football) playing defensive end. Play angry. Kyle Williams played angry.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

On 1/16/2019 at 7:07 PM, Rc2catch said:

Nope.. I want a extra 2 this year or a 1 next year on top of both those 1’s 

Gruden can afford it 

 

...he couldn't afford YOU though............

[Pete]

trading down with the Raiders is a no brainer IMO.  But Raiders want to hold onto those picks IMO