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Cap Management and Filling Needs


jwhit34

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Per Spotrac, the Bills projected cap situation in '19:

 

Committed Salaries (39 players)            $104.3 million

Dead Money                                                      3.0 million

Total Cap Used                                             107.3 million

 

Projected Cap including rollover              $196.0 million

 

If the Bills release McCoy, Clay and Ducasse, this is how it would change:

 

Committed Salaries (36 players)            $ 84.3 million

Dead Money                                                   10.0 million

Total Cap Used                                           $ 94.3 million

 

Cap space to spend                                   $101.7 million

 

They have 10 draft picks and using 2018 as a guide and building in about 10% inflation they will need about $10 million reserved to sign them. If you figure the 5 picks in rounds 1-4 will count against the cap (top 50 salaries count through training camp) and estimating that those salaries will be about $7.5 million, that gives the team 41 of the 53 players, about $102 of the cap used leaving $94 million to spend to fill the 12 roster spots. 

 

What might that look like? They have a lot of flexibility, here's one scenario:

  • 3 offensive linemen for an average cap hit of $9 million - $27 million spent (thinking 2 @ $11M & 1 @ $5M)
  • 2 WRs for an average of $9 million - $18 million spent (1 at $12-13M & 1 @ $5-6M)
  • 1 TE for $7 million 
  • 1 backup QB for $3 million
  • 1 defensive player at $6 million 
  • 4 depth players for an average of $1.5 million - $6 million spent

 

That's $67 million spent leaving $27 million in cap space. In the draft, add 1-2 WRs, at least 1 OL, 1 RB, 2 defensive players, rest best player available. 

 

What this illustrates is that they can go after some big name free agents if they want and leave themselves in an enviable position at the draft to truly go with the best player available and/or be able to trade down and amass more picks for now or the future. 

 

If they want K. Williams and Alexander back, they have plenty of room to do that, they made a combined $8 million this year, they would probably cost a little less in '19 since they're a year older, plus they would be 1 year deals so it wouldn't impact roster/cap management beyond 2019. 

 

We are probably looking at about 20 new players on the team for 2019 which would be remarkable given the roster churn already in the first 2 years of McDermott/Beane. 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

Per Spotrac, the Bills projected cap situation in '19: 

 

Committed Salaries (39 players)            $104.3 million

Dead Money                                                      3.0 million

Total Cap Used                                             107.3 million

 

Projected Cap including rollover              $196.0 million

 

If the Bills release McCoy, Clay and Ducasse, this is how it would change:

  

Committed Salaries (36 players)            $ 84.3 million

Dead Money                                                   10.0 million

Total Cap Used                                           $ 94.3 million

 

Cap space to spend                                   $101.7 million 

 

They have 10 draft picks and using 2018 as a guide and building in about 10% inflation they will need about $10 million reserved to sign them. If you figure the 5 picks in rounds 1-4 will count against the cap (top 50 salaries count through training camp) and estimating that those salaries will be about $7.5 million, that gives the team 41 of the 53 players, about $102 of the cap used leaving $94 million to spend to fill the 12 roster spots.  

  

What might that look like? They have a lot of flexibility, here's one scenario:

  • 3 offensive linemen for an average cap hit of $9 million - $27 million spent (thinking 2 @ $11M & 1 @ $5M)  
  • 2 WRs for an average of $9 million - $18 million spent (1 at $12-13M & 1 @ $5-6M)  
  • 1 TE for $7 million   
  • 1 backup QB for $3 million 
  • 1 defensive player at $6 million  
  • 4 depth players for an average of $1.5 million - $6 million spent  

  

That's $67 million spent leaving $27 million in cap space. In the draft, add 1-2 WRs, at least 1 OL, 1 RB, 2 defensive players, rest best player available

  

What this illustrates is that they can go after some big name free agents if they want and leave themselves in an enviable position at the draft to truly go with the best player available and/or be able to trade down and amass more picks for now or the future. 



  

If they want K. Williams and Alexander back, they have plenty of room to do that, they made a combined $8 million this year, they would probably cost a little less in '19 since they're a year older, plus they would be 1 year deals so it wouldn't impact roster/cap management beyond 2019. 



 

We are probably looking at about 20 new players on the team for 2019 which would be remarkable given the roster churn already in the first 2 years of McDermott/Beane. 

 

 

 

Wow, this is fantastic stuff. 

 

I'm hoping that TE is Jessie James.  Could give him 3 years, 7 mill a year.  likely beat out any other offer. 

 

A WR at 12-13 mill is about right for this group of WR's for a top target.  Could also sign a bunch of "fits" for less.    I'd target Golden Tate, currently making 6.2 million.  Cole Beasley could be a Zay Jones upgrade, currently at 3.2 million; and John Brown (Ravens) could be a great fit here.  Currently at about 5 mill.  Geronimo Allison could be another nice grab.  Looks like he is finishing his rookie contract, and only 25 years old.   

 

Backup QB could be even cheaper.  Will Barkley need 3 mill a year?

 

2 OL at 11M per would be nice.  Allow us to hopefully grab Paradise at C and another OT or G. 

 

I'd also try to add Coleman at RB. 

 

Fun link here to play with:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/wide-receiver/

 

 

Edited by RyanC883
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20 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

Per Spotrac, the Bills projected cap situation in '19:

 

Committed Salaries (39 players)            $104.3 million

Dead Money                                                      3.0 million

Total Cap Used                                             107.3 million

 

Projected Cap including rollover              $196.0 million

 

If the Bills release McCoy, Clay and Ducasse, this is how it would change:

 

Committed Salaries (36 players)            $ 84.3 million

Dead Money                                                   10.0 million

Total Cap Used                                           $ 94.3 million

 

Cap space to spend                                   $101.7 million

 

They have 10 draft picks and using 2018 as a guide and building in about 10% inflation they will need about $10 million reserved to sign them. If you figure the 5 picks in rounds 1-4 will count against the cap (top 50 salaries count through training camp) and estimating that those salaries will be about $7.5 million, that gives the team 41 of the 53 players, about $102 of the cap used leaving $94 million to spend to fill the 12 roster spots. 

 

What might that look like? They have a lot of flexibility, here's one scenario:

  • 3 offensive linemen for an average cap hit of $9 million - $27 million spent (thinking 2 @ $11M & 1 @ $5M)
  • 2 WRs for an average of $9 million - $18 million spent (1 at $12-13M & 1 @ $5-6M)
  • 1 TE for $7 million 
  • 1 backup QB for $3 million
  • 1 defensive player at $6 million 
  • 4 depth players for an average of $1.5 million - $6 million spent

 

That's $67 million spent leaving $27 million in cap space. In the draft, add 1-2 WRs, at least 1 OL, 1 RB, 2 defensive players, rest best player available. 

 

What this illustrates is that they can go after some big name free agents if they want and leave themselves in an enviable position at the draft to truly go with the best player available and/or be able to trade down and amass more picks for now or the future. 

 

If they want K. Williams and Alexander back, they have plenty of room to do that, they made a combined $8 million this year, they would probably cost a little less in '19 since they're a year older, plus they would be 1 year deals so it wouldn't impact roster/cap management beyond 2019. 

 

We are probably looking at about 20 new players on the team for 2019 which would be remarkable given the roster churn already in the first 2 years of McDermott/Beane. 

 

 

 

It doesn't always work like this...You can structure the contracts to give cap relief up front and take it more in later years when you will be getting rid of some other contracts, etc...

They have a ton of flexibility and they don't need to spend all of it this year either...

 

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It’s not likely that the Bills will let Shady go. I also think they will be cautious about putting themselves in cap jail with a splashy high dollar free agent(s).  The league is full of high priced FA’s who have not played up to the money. 

 

I would not be shocked if they underspend what they have available. 

 

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Barkley will not need $3M and he'll be fine as Allen's backup.  I'm not thrilled with keeping Shady & Clay next year but if it's less of a cap hit than so be it,  just reduce their touches. We have to be aggressive in FA with O-line and WR's. And the same positions in the draft plus TE & RB. Sean will have to be very selective in choosing defensive players as 75% of this off season should be focused on offense. 

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17 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

It’s not likely that the Bills will let Shady go. I also think they will be cautious about putting themselves in cap jail with a splashy high dollar free agent(s).  The league is full of high priced FA’s who have not played up to the money. 

 

I would not be shocked if they underspend what they have available. 

 

I think they have some guys targeted and a price point already in mind......

 

 

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My guess is they will target some O linemen we haven't heard all that much about, sort of like Hyde and Poyer when they got them.  Same with WRs or TEs. Draft I expect a pass rushing DE or OLB in round 1 as that is where the real talent lies in the draft, then focus on the lines and WRs and a CB and RB somewhere I there. 

 

Beane is not the type to spend wildly, and he also has to know they need to spend resources on the offensive side of the ball to protect their young QB.

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28 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

A WR at 12-13 mill is about right for this group of WR's for a top target.  Could also sign a bunch of "fits" for less.    I'd target Golden Tate, currently making 6.2 million.  Cole Beasley could be a Zay Jones upgrade, currently at 3.2 million; and John Brown (Ravens) could be a great fit here.  Currently at about 5 mill.  Geronimo Allison could be another nice grab.  Looks like he is finishing his rookie contract, and only 25 years old.   

 

Not sure I'd agree with this in all honesty - Tate has already been overpaid and has fallen flat in Philly, he wouldn't be worth the salary we'd end up paying him to under-perform in a role we expect him to fulfill. I wouldn't call Beasley an upgrade necessarily - keep Zay while he's on his rookie contract as he at least still has room to grow - Beasley isn't going to get any better, and will only get more expensive and older. John Brown snubbed us last year, and given the Ravens success this year it's highly unlikely he leaves Baltimore for anything. 

 

Honestly, our best WR options in the offseason (outside of Funchess and T. Williams - who also won't become true WR1s imo) will either come via a trade or the draft. Don't look too far into the FA pool where we would over-commit cap to a WR that would be better spent for talent along the OL via FA. Nutshell: there is no WR1 in the current FA pool this year worth the money we'd spend for the result we'd get.

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48 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Ok so

 

Clay really only costs 4 million dollars next year......after years of overpaying this guy he actually is dirt cheap going into this next season......just get a BETTER TE to be the number 1 and he can be the number 2

 

I would keep Shady but draft a RB

Sure he’s dirt cheap but he’s also dirt useless in the passing game.  I’m really hoping we can add a very good tight end in FA or the draft. We’ve never had a great tight end.  I feel josh allens attributes would give a stud TE the huge advantage in getting open in mismatches 

 

hes is a solid blocking TE

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What the OP and this board is forgetting is there are multiple teams with tons of cap space. Beane overspent on Star, Ivory, and Murphy.  Just like any other team they will have to overspend to lure free agents from other teams. There is simply too much cap space available.  

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9 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

What the OP and this board is forgetting is there are multiple teams with tons of cap space. Beane overspent on Star, Ivory, and Murphy.  Just like any other team they will have to overspend to lure free agents from other teams. There is simply too much cap space available.  

 

 

Bingo

 

It's the biggest thing left out when the cap space discussion pops up.  The Colts have $30 mil more cap space than we do.

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9 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

What the OP and this board is forgetting is there are multiple teams with tons of cap space. Beane overspent on Star, Ivory, and Murphy.  Just like any other team they will have to overspend to lure free agents from other teams. There is simply too much cap space available.  

 

Maybe, maybe not. The OP was still way under with his 'spend', so there's plenty of 'wriggle room', especially for an O-Line guy or two.

 

While performance wise it can be argued Beane overpaid for your named trio, we don't really know if he did, as we don't know what (if any) other offers they may have had.

 

If there's so much money going around, it probably isn't 'overspend,' as much as market rates that are being pushed higher, due to teams having plenty of spare cash.

 

Fwiw, in general terms, I like what the OP has outlined. What remains to be seen, is if Beane etc. can identify the right guys to both go after, and to get. ;)

 

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38 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

I would not be shocked if they underspend what they have available. 

 

Concur. The Bills will still have cap room left over after they've done their wheeling and dealing.

 

The FA market has slim pickings and there is going to be bidding wars for quality FA. There are several teams with fat wallets (Jets for example)..there will be high rollers at the FA table. I don't see McBean overbidding like the previous regime had, so the Bills may lose out on some good FA.

 

I hope they can sign some quality OL and WR, but I think it will hard to draw some in at a reasonable price.

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23 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

What the OP and this board is forgetting is there are multiple teams with tons of cap space. Beane overspent on Star, Ivory, and Murphy.  Just like any other team they will have to overspend to lure free agents from other teams. There is simply too much cap space available.  

Fortunately, it’s not OUR money!

 

 

 

 

WAIT, if it were my money........... 

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Hats off to the OP for the dutiful math homework.  

 

What intrigues me is whether the FO will change its approach with any new developments in New England.  I'd think optimally if you are the Bills, you want to be the heir apparent in the AFC East if the Patriots signal the start of a rebuilding phase. 

 

You don't want to be the loser of that arms race because your process says "five year plan" but your window is telling you it's now.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, whatdrought said:

Didn’t Sammy Watkins get like 18 million alone last year?

 

i don’t know what WR will be worth 9million.

 

Also, starting Olinemen that are worth anything will clear at least 10million. 

 

Sammy shouldn’t be any sort of benchmark when considering how to spread your cap around. 

 

Zay Jones is having a similarly prolific year in a much less productive offense. 

Edited by Over 29 years of fanhood
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If you think about the salary cap in terms of just one year, you are doing it wrong.  

 

That cap space isn't just for next year.  

 

Its also for the year after and the year after, and its there to help resign guys coming up through the system.  

 

The bills wont, and shouldn't, just sign a bunch of free agents next year because they have some extra money for the first time. 

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46 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

What the OP and this board is forgetting is there are multiple teams with tons of cap space. Beane overspent on Star, Ivory, and Murphy.  Just like any other team they will have to overspend to lure free agents from other teams. There is simply too much cap space available.  

They will need to be selective and aggressive in free agency.

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1 hour ago, jwhit34 said:

Per Spotrac, the Bills projected cap situation in '19:

 

Committed Salaries (39 players)            $104.3 million

Dead Money                                                      3.0 million

Total Cap Used                                             107.3 million

 

Projected Cap including rollover              $196.0 million

 

If the Bills release McCoy, Clay and Ducasse, this is how it would change:

 

Committed Salaries (36 players)            $ 84.3 million

Dead Money                                                   10.0 million

Total Cap Used                                           $ 94.3 million

 

Cap space to spend                                   $101.7 million

 

They have 10 draft picks and using 2018 as a guide and building in about 10% inflation they will need about $10 million reserved to sign them. If you figure the 5 picks in rounds 1-4 will count against the cap (top 50 salaries count through training camp) and estimating that those salaries will be about $7.5 million, that gives the team 41 of the 53 players, about $102 of the cap used leaving $94 million to spend to fill the 12 roster spots. 

 

What might that look like? They have a lot of flexibility, here's one scenario:

  • 3 offensive linemen for an average cap hit of $9 million - $27 million spent (thinking 2 @ $11M & 1 @ $5M)
  • 2 WRs for an average of $9 million - $18 million spent (1 at $12-13M & 1 @ $5-6M)
  • 1 TE for $7 million 
  • 1 backup QB for $3 million
  • 1 defensive player at $6 million 
  • 4 depth players for an average of $1.5 million - $6 million spent

 

That's $67 million spent leaving $27 million in cap space. In the draft, add 1-2 WRs, at least 1 OL, 1 RB, 2 defensive players, rest best player available. 

 

What this illustrates is that they can go after some big name free agents if they want and leave themselves in an enviable position at the draft to truly go with the best player available and/or be able to trade down and amass more picks for now or the future. 

 

If they want K. Williams and Alexander back, they have plenty of room to do that, they made a combined $8 million this year, they would probably cost a little less in '19 since they're a year older, plus they would be 1 year deals so it wouldn't impact roster/cap management beyond 2019. 

 

We are probably looking at about 20 new players on the team for 2019 which would be remarkable given the roster churn already in the first 2 years of McDermott/Beane. 

 

 

 

Good job with the numbers.

One thing to consider is the 53 roster is the final roster.  Bills will be signing for next years 90 to bring to camp.

They will be resigning some of their own FAs and a lot more FAs than you indicated.

Always got to hope to find some cheaper guys who out perform.

 

I'm thinking they keep 20-25 million to roll into next year.

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2 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Didn’t Sammy Watkins get like 18 million alone last year?

 

i don’t know what WR will be worth 9million.

 

Also, starting Olinemen that are worth anything will clear at least 10million. 

 

As for o-linemen I think the OP agreed with you that any o-linemen worth his salt will be at least 10 mil - he added at the end of his O-Line spend tally -

(thinking 2 @ $11M & 1 @ $5M)

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..cap spending requirements to go along with OP's great work and analysis..............:thumbsup:

 

By Nick Manchester@NickManchester9 Sep 6, 2018, 7:44pm EDT      

 

Spending requirements

There is a minimum amount of money that a team can put towards their caps. All 32 teams are required to spend at least 89 percent of their caps (which this year is $177.2 M). This is called the minimum cash spend requirement, also known as the 89 percent rule.

 

Teams don’t have to spend their 89 percent every year, however. This requirement must be the average amount spent over the four year spending period. The current spending period started in 2017 and will continue through 2020.

 

In other words, the Bengals could have to spend 88 percent of their cap last year and this year, but would have to spend at least 90 percent over the next two years.

The second requirement is that the league as a whole must spend 95 percent of its total cap space. So the average percent of cap spending must come out to 95 percent every year, or the remaining money will be given to the players. This rule also applies over the course of the spending period.

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1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Sammy shouldn’t be any sort of benchmark when considering how to spread your cap around. 

 

Zay Jones is having a similarly prolific year in a much less productive offense. 

 

Definitely agree- but his cotract (and other obscene ones) is indicitive of the market. Any receiver who even smells like a starter will be looking at above 10. Especially considering escalation.

 

Albert Wilson got 8 a year, with a ton up front. 

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2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Ok so

 

Clay really only costs 4 million dollars next year......after years of overpaying this guy he actually is dirt cheap going into this next season......just get a BETTER TE to be the number 1 and he can be the number 2

 

I would keep Shady but draft a RB

I would cut Clay period.  He is not a productive player, a liability in the passing game, and regardless of how much cap you have I'm always looking to maximize value.  $4.5 Million is 4.5 Million.  You never know what player may become available that you want to sign.

 

As for Shady, I'm on the fence.  One the one hand, he isn't a fit for our running game (perhaps due to our faulty OL which maybe fixed this offseason), on the other hand he is a team leader and can be dynamic in the right situation.

 

If our cap space was a problem Id say cut him.  But with over $100 million after cutting Clay, and there isn't any reason not to keep him for his final year (which he'll be playing in a contract year) and see what he can do with improved Offensive weapons around him.  

7 minutes ago, offyourocker said:

I think they will go get an OLB also to replace Lorenzo.  There are a lot of free agents at that position.  He might be back for a year to play a limited role but I  think this is the right time to get a long time starter.

Lo has another year left, maybe too.  I see his replacement coming in the 2019 draft. 

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4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Ok so

 

Clay really only costs 4 million dollars next year......after years of overpaying this guy he actually is dirt cheap going into this next season......just get a BETTER TE to be the number 1 and he can be the number 2

 

I would keep Shady but draft a RB

They have to account for the amortized bonus money so isnt it more like 9?

1 hour ago, Epstein's Mother said:

The Bills have so much cap room for next year that I don't believe they will be able to spend it all.  I think it will take through 2020 to get near the cap.  There will only be so many free agents available next year and other teams have needs as well.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Beane roll some over, but ,why? 

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The Bills will sign Tyrell Williams.

 

Chargers already have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams (if they pick up his 5th year option) until 2021.  Travis Benjamin is signed through next year.  No way they pay this guy what he's worth.

 

26 years old.  He is 6'4 and can win jump balls (what we thought we were getting with Benjamin).  He is a hands catcher and can take it out of the defenders grasp.  Can stretch the field and go deep (caught a number of long ball TDs).  Has great speed to get past defenders and gain valuable YAC.  His 63.3 catch % is tops among FA WR's. 

 

He's on the books for $2.9 this year. 

 

He will be in a Bills uniform next year.  

Edited by dezertbill
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1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

I read it was 4

 

If its 4.....still serv as a number 2 TE

If its 9 CUT HIS ASS

His salary will be 4.5, with a couple bonuses totaling another 4.5 If you keep him yes, his SALARY is 4.5, but you have to account for the bonuses against the cap ( 9 million cap hit). The DEAD money (the bonus money) is 4.5 next year next year, I assume his salary is not guaranteed which makes it easier to cut him,m and save 4.5

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2 hours ago, dezertbill said:

I would cut Clay period.  He is not a productive player, a liability in the passing game, and regardless of how much cap you have I'm always looking to maximize value.  $4.5 Million is 4.5 Million.  You never know what player may become available that you want to sign.

 

As for Shady, I'm on the fence.  One the one hand, he isn't a fit for our running game (perhaps due to our faulty OL which maybe fixed this offseason), on the other hand he is a team leader and can be dynamic in the right situation.

 

If our cap space was a problem Id say cut him.  But with over $100 million after cutting Clay, and there isn't any reason not to keep him for his final year (which he'll be playing in a contract year) and see what he can do with improved Offensive weapons around him.  

Lo has another year left, maybe too.  I see his replacement coming in the 2019 draft. 

 

I'd cut clay.  Shady isn't irreplaceable at this point in his career, but on an offense completely without playmakers it doesn't make sense to cut the only player resembling a playmaker.  I'm all for upgrading the position, but we don't need the cap space and his salary isn't guaranteed.  Why not figure out if you've upgraded it before you decide to cut someone.  

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4 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Didn’t Sammy Watkins get like 18 million alone last year?

 

i don’t know what WR will be worth 9million.

 

Also, starting Olinemen that are worth anything will clear at least 10million. 

 

The number signed for does not necessarily equal the cap hit. It's all about contract structure.

2 hours ago, Epstein's Mother said:

The Bills have so much cap room for next year that I don't believe they will be able to spend it all.  I think it will take through 2020 to get near the cap.  There will only be so many free agents available next year and other teams have needs as well.

 

It has taken the Jags like 5 seasons to use all that cap space. Only this offseason are they finally going to have to shed a guy like Dareus ironically

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3 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

The number signed for does not necessarily equal the cap hit. It's all about contract structure.

 

That's true- and I admit to not knowing how that works. 

 

I apologize to the OP if it seemed like i was attacking his work- just trying to figure it out. :P

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1 minute ago, whatdrought said:

 

That's true- and I admit to not knowing how that works. 

 

I apologize to the OP if it seemed like i was attacking his work- just trying to figure it out. :P

 

Naw u good homie I figured it was more of a question. Just for fun Watkins cap per spotrac is 7 mil this year then 19 mil next and 21 in 2020 which is hilarious

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