SI - Josh Allen, Thrown to the Wolves

[billsfan1959]

2 hours ago, starrymessenger said:

 

Analysts were divided in their opinions as to whether his problems could be coached out of him. Quite a few were of the view that some issues I.e. accuracy were not correctable. Others felt that with proper coaching and grooming they could improve. As far as I am aware all of the credible analysts were universally and unequivocally of the opinion that Josh was a very raw prospect, maybe a diamond in the rough to be sure, but  very much in need of work on his basic fundamentals re throwing mechanics, footwork etc...in addition to the many things that all rookie QBs need to absorb before transitioning to the pro game. All of this was moreover plainly evident from his WYO tape.

So I would ask you again, what rookie QB as unrefined as Josh Allen starting for a team as bad as the Bills has succeeded. Don't say Peyton. Don't say Aikman. Maybe there is one, but off the top I don't see it. 

Now, you say that every athlete is unique. But some stand out more than others that way. IMO Allen is pretty much in a class by himself. My personal opinion is that he looks to be a bona fide prodigy as far as his basic physical and mental skillset is concerned. He is a much better prospect than other strong armed and physically gifted QBs like Locker or Boller. That is why I continue to see him as a good prospect with a chance to succeed. But if he does get there all the credit will be his, not the Bills, who have done nothing to help him. And he will indeed prove that he was unique and probably without any obvious comparables.

I guess I don't see Allen as unrefined as you do, and I do not believe there was a universal and unequivocal agreement among all credible analysts - and certainly that is not what the Bills thought (or they wouldn't have traded all those picks, selected him 7th, and not bother to even find/keep a veteran on the roster). It doesn't matter anyway, as I said, what happened with any other QB is of no consequence regarding how Allen turns out. However, if you need some sort of reference point, then I would say Brett Favre comes to mind. There are numerous QBs who started on bad teams that became very good to HOF caliber QBs. However, I will choose Favre because he was looked at in much the same way as Allen. 

 

But, again, Allen is his own person. He will be successful if he possesses the physical and mental attributes necessary - and if he does not possess them, then he won't. 

[billsredneck1]

sorry i didn't read every post but the ones that argue about aikmen and manning are stupid arguments . 1989 and 1998 are far different than today's game and can in no way be compared to how a rookie today has a chance or not.  i personally think josh will make it , however i would admit it possible, his growth could be stunted by not having that vet in the room.

 

i can't believe they traded aj.  he may have been an" i'm starting or this is bs "guy.....and it very well may have been so, but it is what it is. josh will be fine or pummeled into submission.

it's all on the coaches now.

 

if mcd lets his...i mean leslie"s defense start out like last week again, i may just lose an other ounce of respect for him.

[Cripple Creek]

Truth be told, there are no definitives here. Some great QBs started from day one. Some of those great QBs were successful early, some were not. Some great QBs sat a bit. Some of those great QBs were successful early some were not.

 

Some craptastic QBs started at once, some sat for a bit. They were in the end craptastic.

 

Starting early doesn’t mean a QB will be successful or not. Surrounding talent, coaching, division opponents, injury,  karma...all play a part. Not all QBs with all the tools succeed. The reasons vary, but IMO have nothing to do with starting from day one.

[Phils n Bills]

[starrymessenger]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

I guess I don't see Allen as unrefined as you do, and I do not believe there was a universal and unequivocal agreement among all credible analysts - and certainly that is not what the Bills thought (or they wouldn't have traded all those picks, selected him 7th, and not bother to even find/keep a veteran on the roster). It doesn't matter anyway, as I said, what happened with any other QB is of no consequence regarding how Allen turns out. However, if you need some sort of reference point, then I would say Brett Favre comes to mind. There are numerous QBs who started on bad teams that became very good to HOF caliber QBs. However, I will choose Favre because he was looked at in much the same way as Allen. 

 

But, again, Allen is his own person. He will be successful if he possesses the physical and mental attributes necessary - and if he does not possess them, then he won't. 

 

Again I don't know of any reputable commentator who doubted that JA was very raw and unpolished as a prospect. And it's hardly surprising given the path he had to follow to the NFL. And I'd be surprised frankly if the Bills didn't know this. And their decision to move forward without a veteran on the roster is obviously one that has attracted a lot of criticism. And if they thought he was ready to start why didn't they start him ahead of a clearly lesser talent.

In spite of his technical issues Josh Allen was going to be drafted high in the first round. Had the Bills not taken him at 7, the Cards would have at 8. The reason for that is his extraordinary natural/physical aptitudes for playing the all important position. But had he been drafted by Arizona he would be sitting behind a vet and learning, like Rosen, who right now is much more proficient as a passer than JA is. 

Favre didn't start until he was into his second year and on a team that was good enuf to go 9-7 and place second in the NFC Central. But I think you're right about Favre being an interesting comparable (even if you don't believe in comparables) and one that I hadn't thought of. I don't know how serious BFs issues were but for sure his accuracy was questioned and he was not considered a finished product. 

[Fadingpain]

9 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said:

This is not about growing or stepping up. This is about become a top tier franchise QB and if the Bills have created the right environment for that goal. 

He's a top 10 pick. Isn't it assumed that he is resilient, driven and tough as nails? 

I believe Allen is all of those things, but those will not be the primary reason he succeeds or fails.  

Actually, he's a 3rd round pick, taken in the top 10 by the Bills.

 

Those are 2 different things.

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

Does it seem to anyone else like alot of posts are just about creating excuses in the event Allen doesn't play well?

[oldmanfan]

21 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Actually, he's a 3rd round pick, taken in the top 10 by the Bills.

 

Those are 2 different things.

 

 

This is old and tired

[BillsVet]

3 hours ago, Tenhigh said:

I feel like I am in the upside down....

 

You didn't know? 

[Doc Brown]

I haven't seen any weaknesses in the kid's mental makeup that would make me think you could "ruin" him with a weak o-line and WR core so I'm not that concerned.  You can't beat on the field experience and learning from your mistakes.  I don't care how much film you study.  My concern with him is more of a physical one as he hasn't perfected the slide yet and he takes a lot of hits with this line.

[TheElectricCompany]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Allen's already demonstrated Hall of Fame potential.   

 

Geez Shaw. First the "Allen will be better than Mahomes in Year 2" comment, now this one? 

I didn't know they put Kool Aid in kegs! 

 

[Billznut]

9 hours ago, Pre1236 said:

Allen is in a terrible situation - to say otherwise is disingenuous. Doesn't mean he won't be successful but, if you are honest, can you imagine a worse situation for a prospect? Especially a prospect who is largely considered "raw".  How this organization thought it made sense to enter the season with Allen and Peterman as the only two QBs is downright alarming. 

You are exactly right. But be careful, here it’s heavily frowned upon to doubt McBeane or question the process. 

[Augie]

Well, this is good to know!

 

SI is still around....who knew? 

[billsfan89]

9 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

Tim Couch, for one.

 

It's a pretty tough argument to support either way.  Guys who were never given a chance could just as easily be labeled as "not talented enough".

 

 

But Goff is a pretty good recent example.  His rookie year he was labeled a bust and pretty much written off.  Gurley was also labeled a one year wonder.  The Rams hired an innovative coach, completely overhauled their WR core and brought in a vet LT and Center, suddenly they are the best offense in football.  

 

Simply put, very few if any current "franchise QBs" around the league were put into a worse situation than Allen currently faces.  However, many "never was / draft busts" faced similar circumstances.  To pretend a guy should be so talented you can just roll the ball out there with anyone from day 1 and he'll make it work is one of the dumber things I've seen said on this forum.

 

My concerns with playing Allen behind a bad supporting cast is that his footwork development could be negatively impacted. But the Bills simply do not have a choice now and playing will help Allen improve in processing and decision making. 

 

I don't think you need to put every QB in a Mahomes like situation (Sits for a year and inherits a lot of offensive talent) but with a rookie QB you do need to have a plan to improve the talent around him? With Couch and Carr who were brutalized in their rookie years those franchises were expansion teams who were in need of 2-3 off-seasons worth of talent upgrades to get competitive. By the time those teams started to accrue talent those QB's went through 3 brutal seasons. 

 

With Goff his team was pretty bad his rookie year but they had a windfall of cap space to try and build a team around him, the signed a lot of offensive talent and traded for Sammy, they also had a good core defense. Within a year they had Goff with the tools he needed. 

 

The Bills will have the cap space to go out and make the big moves necessary, the Bills might even have a top pick to trade down and accrue more picks which could be a windfall of talent. So long term having a rough rookie year isn't a death sentence.  

[leonbus23]

10 hours ago, matter2003 said:

It's irrelevant.  People who succeed will do it regardless of the circumstances they are given.  If they have the talent, it won't matter. People who say this type of stuff are much more like Vontae Davis than Kyle Williams.  When the going gets tough they just cry and whine and pack up their things and go home.  PRetty sure Mark Sheppard is not very successful, people who are don't think like that.

First of all, Shep is an attorney in Chicago and doing fine. Second, tell your nonsense to David Carr. 

Edited September 20, 2018 by leonbus23

[DuckyBoys]

The Mahomes comparisons are ridiculous.  On guy has a established offensive line, Andy Reid who has developed several very good qbs and maybe the best set of skill position players in the NFL  The other has a offensive line with new starters at almost every spot,  a defensive mind basically rookie head coach and likely the worst receiving core in pro football.  Anyone think Mahomes would be thriving if the situations were reversed?

[The_Dude]

11 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Fire away!

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/09/18/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-rookie-starting-quarterback

 

 

 

That quote seems right to me. 

[Shaw66]

57 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Geez Shaw. First the "Allen will be better than Mahomes in Year 2" comment, now this one? 

I didn't know they put Kool Aid in kegs! 

 

First, it's standard operating procedure on message boards to misinterpret clear statements.   

 

Anyway, I will say here and now that anyone who doesn't see Hall of Fame potential in Allen is an idiot.  An idiot.

 

He has Peyton Manning size.   He runs and throws like Elway.  He stays upright in the pocket like Roethlisberger.   

 

Now before anyone says Shaw is nuts -  I didn't say he's going to the Hall of Fame, I didn't say he's as good as those guys.   BUT - if you're going to start a rookie QB and try to develop him into a quality starter in the NFL, why wouldn't you want to start with 6'5", 240, with speed, brains and a cannon?

 

I don't get all the whining.   I'll say it again:  I'm excited.   Bills have the best prospect at QB in the past 30 years, maybe ever.

[TheElectricCompany]

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Bills have the best prospect at QB in the past 30 years, maybe ever.

 

Another doozy. 

Keep 'em coming. 

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Another doozy. 

Keep 'em coming. 

Yeah, that one was just for you.  

[Big Turk]

10 hours ago, leonbus23 said:

First of all, Shep is an attorney in Chicago and doing fine. Second, tell your nonsense to David Carr. 

David Carr just wasnt any good.

[metzelaars_lives]

14 hours ago, leonbus23 said:

First of all, Shep is an attorney in Chicago and doing fine. Second, tell your nonsense to David Carr. 

Haha what?  No he's not?

[BrooklynBills]

Skill position players for Carson Wentz his rookie year:

 

RB: Darren Sproles, Ryan Matthew, Wendell Smallwood, Byron Marshall

 

WR/TE: Zach Ertz, Trey Burton (had not produced anything yet), Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor(disappointing up to this point), Dorial Green Bekham, Bryce Treggs, Josh Huff, Aaron Grymes

 

OL: better than ours

 

If Allen is good, he'll show it this year regardless of who he's playing with.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, BrooklynBills said:

 

 

If Allen is good, he'll show it this year regardless of who he's playing with.

Exactly.  I think we've seen it already.  How much better he gets remains to be seen. 

[oldmanfan]

Some folks seem to think NFL players, and QBs in particular, should be like umpires or surgeons.  They should be perfect day 1 of the job and then improve.

[Real McClappy]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Exactly.  I think we've seen it already.  How much better he gets remains to be seen. 

It simply takes time for a raw rookie QB to develop, a min.1yr of playing time. 

 

In all honesty his debut with 245yds a TD with a couple picks is actually pretty promising for what he is working with. His rating will go up no doubt in my mind. 

 

All I'm looking for is progression throughout the year from him to get better and better. 

 

I'm not sure what people were realistically expecting his 1st start in the NFL? 400yds and 4tds???

 

We all want it now but patience is a absolute must. 

[TheElectricCompany]

500 yards and 5 TDs. Duh. 

What are we even talking about now? 

The original point of the article was that Allen has very little proven support around him, and that will likely play a factor in his development. 

[Ramza86]

On 9/19/2018 at 10:45 AM, matter2003 said:

It's irrelevant.  People who succeed will do it regardless of the circumstances they are given.  If they have the talent, it won't matter. People who say this type of stuff are much more like Vontae Davis than Kyle Williams.  When the going gets tough they just cry and whine and pack up their things and go home.  PRetty sure Mark Sheppard is not very successful, people who are don't think like that.

 

Uh......

[Tcali]

Allen has showed great attitude and great athleticism so far.I don't see this kid getting demoralized.He is a winner...albeit one who is really not a very good passer and has a ton of fundamental flaws in his game.

the positive is that the kid can get the ball moved down the field.

PS-the protection wasn't that bad.He had tons of time to throw.And he needs to not create pressure by standing there like a wooden indian when looking downfield--then trying to escape after 5 seconds when a guy is finally on him.A little foot movement and eye movement and shifting of position while there is no pressure can extend his time to throw the ball considerably.

[SoTier]

On 9/19/2018 at 11:21 AM, Nihilarian said:

This is baloney. QB's that go to bad teams usually end up on the scrap heap and the some that do succeed like Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman didn't go to teams as bad as the current Buffalo Bills. Manning was only sacked 22 times his first year at Indy and Aikman was only sacked 19 times at Dallas. Meanwhile Allen has already been sacked 8 times in a game and a half. 

 

While David Carr was sacked 79 times and referred to as a tackling dummy...the Bills QBs are on a pace to beat that number with 88 as Josh with 8, Peterman with 3 in a little over a half. 

 

The article mentions Manning but doesn't say he was only sacked 22 times because he also had some decent talent on his offensive line to protect him. He also had Marshall Faulk, Marvin Harrison on that team. It was Manning learning the ropes with a 56.7 completion percentage and with 26 TDs, 28 Ints. 

 

As for Aikman his offensive line was arguably the very best the NFL has ever seen with LT Mark Tuinei 15 years with Dallas, LG Nate Newton 13 years with Dallas, Center Tom Raftery 14 years with Dallas, RG Crawford Kerr 6 years with Dallas, RT Kevin Cogan 7 years with Dallas, 14 in the NFL. Aikman learning the NFL ropes  9 TDs, 18 INTs with a 52.9 completion percentage. 

 

**What's interesting to me is the same year the team drafted Aikman #1 overall they also drafted OG Steve Wisniewski with the 29th pick (second round) and center Mark Stepnoski with the #57th pick (3rd round). So, it looks like the Cowboys FO went out of their way to make sure that pick at QB was well protected. 

 

 

Like I said, you throw a rookie QB on a bad team that can't protect him and he usually ends up on the scrap heap. If Allen even survives this season it will be a miracle. 

 

This is an excellent post!  Congrats!  As I've said numerous times in the past, Allen has been set up to fail because the team around him is so bad.  In any field, the individuals who succeed without some kind of support from family, friends, teammates, teachers, etc are very rare because no one exists in a vacuum.  

[Chris66]

On 9/19/2018 at 11:36 AM, Chuck Wagon said:

 

Tim Couch, for one.

 

It's a pretty tough argument to support either way.  Guys who were never given a chance could just as easily be labeled as "not talented enough".

 

 

But Goff is a pretty good recent example.  His rookie year he was labeled a bust and pretty much written off.  Gurley was also labeled a one year wonder.  The Rams hired an innovative coach, completely overhauled their WR core and brought in a vet LT and Center, suddenly they are the best offense in football.  

 

Simply put, very few if any current "franchise QBs" around the league were put into a worse situation than Allen currently faces.  However, many "never was / draft busts" faced similar circumstances.  To pretend a guy should be so talented you can just roll the ball out there with anyone from day 1 and he'll make it work is one of the dumber things I've seen said on this forum.

So basically for Allen to succeed. The Bills have to fire McDermott and hire an up and comin o coordinator.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 9/19/2018 at 10:41 AM, TheElectricCompany said:

Fire away!

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/09/18/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-rookie-starting-quarterback

 

 

 

From an organizational standpoint he is in the best hands , but on the field he is in the worst.

 

I've said it before and I love McBeane, but they made a huge mistake in not surrounding Allen with talent immediately.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 9/19/2018 at 10:21 AM, Nihilarian said:

This is baloney. QB's that go to bad teams usually end up on the scrap heap and the some that do succeed like Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman didn't go to teams as bad as the current Buffalo Bills. Manning was only sacked 22 times his first year at Indy and Aikman was only sacked 19 times at Dallas. Meanwhile Allen has already been sacked 8 times in a game and a half.

 

Manning came into the league able to make quick decisions and get the ball out fast.  He threw 28 INT that 22-sack rookie year, a side-effect of an inexperienced QB with a quick draw.   Aikman ditto I believe, though I wasn't watching football his rookie year.  He threw twice as many INT as TD though (18 in 11 games), again minimizing sacks but.... you still have a valid point.

 

I'm of two minds after having watched most of Allen's snaps now. 

 

On the one hand, legitimately a bunch of his sacks are "on him" and not on the OL - I say "on him" because I don't know who is supposed to be setting the protections, but either the protections are wrong and miss picking up a blitzer, or Allen fails to use his outlet as soon as he sees the blitzer, or he holds the ball too long while there's at least one open man doing jumping jacks to get his attention downfield.

 

On the other hand, since defenses are designed to confuse the QB and lead to the missed the pickup, I got to fault the OL sometimes for not picking up a blitzer when they're not engaged and they could.   And Allen has avoided at least as many sacks as he's taken, by rolling out or running, and some of those were clearly breakdowns in protection.

 

I've started wondering if the whole puzzling "no vet QB" situation was a deliberate choice by Daboll, Culley and Castillo because they wanted a guy who is a blank slate and would not have any differing viewpoints presented to him like "yeah, dude, you missed the protection call there but nothing stopped your guard from spotting the guy and picking him up anyway so it ain't all on you"

 

 

 

 

[Nihilarian]

20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Manning came into the league able to make quick decisions and get the ball out fast.  He threw 28 INT that 22-sack rookie year, a side-effect of an inexperienced QB with a quick draw.   Aikman ditto I believe, though I wasn't watching football his rookie year.  He threw twice as many INT as TD though (18 in 11 games), again minimizing sacks but.... you still have a valid point.

 

I'm of two minds after having watched most of Allen's snaps now. 

 

On the one hand, legitimately a bunch of his sacks are "on him" and not on the OL - I say "on him" because I don't know who is supposed to be setting the protections, but either the protections are wrong and miss picking up a blitzer, or Allen fails to use his outlet as soon as he sees the blitzer, or he holds the ball too long while there's at least one open man doing jumping jacks to get his attention downfield.

 

On the other hand, since defenses are designed to confuse the QB and lead to the missed the pickup, I got to fault the OL sometimes for not picking up a blitzer when they're not engaged and they could.   And Allen has avoided at least as many sacks as he's taken, by rolling out or running, and some of those were clearly breakdowns in protection.

 

I've started wondering if the whole puzzling "no vet QB" situation was a deliberate choice by Daboll, Culley and Castillo because they wanted a guy who is a blank slate and would not have any differing viewpoints presented to him like "yeah, dude, you missed the protection call there but nothing stopped your guard from spotting the guy and picking him up anyway so it ain't all on you"

From what I understand is that when you have a rookie QB starting. The center is the one who should be calling the line protections. Simply because the QB has little idea of what he is looking at pre snap. That is of course if you have an experienced center.

 

Another issue is what I see in line protections as they have been somewhat of a clusterfluck of missed assignments, whiffed blocks and blocking the wrong man. Both the TEs and RB's missing blocks, not seeing them, not looking for them or not caring.  That's all on coaching! 

 

Not having a veteran QB on the roster to show the kid the ropes his first year is simply the wrong thing to do. Marrone/Whaley did it with EJ, Lewis and Tuel and how did that work out for those three?

 

This rookie QB needs all the help he can get to develop properly and from what I've seen his O line stinks, the protections stinks, the Bills don't have a power run game anymore and are 29th in the NFL in run blocking. His receiving corps is nothing special so he is holding the ball far too long waiting for someone to break open. Then again he doesn't always see the open guy, which should come in time... if given time.

 

Allen was lucky last week as the Chargers best pass rusher was out with an injury and as it was the line couldn't block Ingram. I shudder to think of how many sacks the two of them would have had on Allen. The line coach needs to remove his cranium from his posterior.

[Turk71]

It's not rocket science, putting a rookie qb behind probably the worst line in the league with no talent at wr is not a good situation. Why would you spend your fa money on washed up def players when you are picking a qb at the top of the draft? Makes no sense. They should have focused on the offensive line and wrs and fixed the d next year imo. That way your future qb does not get destroyed while getting up to nfl speed.

[Shaw66]

I've had this thought for days now, and I'll throw it in here. 

 

I seriously doubt that the Bills have the worst offensive line in the league.   I'm not saying it's good.   As I watch games around the league, I'm seeing a LOT of atrocious line play.   Defenders are getting free runs at the QB for many, if not most, teams.   I don't think Allen has been in any more trouble back there than a lot of QBs over the first couple of weeks.   

 

It's something we've been hearing for a few years now.  There are few stud offensive linemen coming out of college.  Guys in the pros literally are going to off-season camps to learn how to block in the NFL.  On top of that, the defensive schemes keep getting more complex, with more disguises.   A lot of teams are rushing linebackers and defensive backs and dropping DEs into coverage.  It's complex.  

 

One of the encouraging things about Allen is that he scrambles well, and he doesn't go down easily.   It's a skill all QBs need now - if you're a statue back there, you're going down.    

[Avisan]

There are a weird number of Just-World, Prosperity-Gospelers on this board.

 

Talent alone won't make you succeed.  Hard work alone won't make you succeed.  There are plenty of players as talented and as hard-working as Josh Allen that have washed out in this league because success is as dependent on organizational fit and dumb luck as it is on hard work and talent.

 

Anyone remember Matt Flynn?  Dude lit it up in multiple seasons as a backup for the Packers.  Couldn't hack it anywhere else in the league.

 

Talent and hard work won't save Josh Allen when his feet start getting happy, his arm misfires, or his desire to win causes him to throw balls he shouldn't.

 

Great QBs have down years where either on a personal level or on a team level things don't gel.  Mediocre QBs have great years where everything just clicks.  We love to delude ourselves that we live in a world where things are fair and that they happen as they "should" happen.  It isn't true.  It's never been true.

[K-9]

2 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

From an organizational standpoint he is in the best hands , but on the field he is in the worst.

 

I've said it before and I love McBeane, but they made a huge mistake in not surrounding Allen with talent immediately.

 

 

An impossibility this year. McBeane are playing the long game. In the meantime, Allen is a big man, with athletic chops and a good head on his shoulders, so he can handle some wolves while he gets vital reps to jump start his development. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

8 hours ago, K-9 said:

An impossibility this year. McBeane are playing the long game. In the meantime, Allen is a big man, with athletic chops and a good head on his shoulders, so he can handle some wolves while he gets vital reps to jump start his development. 

 

No it was not. Focus on offense not defense, which will be exceptional in this upcoming draft.

 

We sign :

TE Jimmy Graham

WR Allen Robinson

G Justin Pugh

RT Chris Hubbard

 

Draft 

G will Hernandez

TE Mark Andrews

And a decent WR

 

This would have transformed the offense, which is now on life support and the defense hasn't exactly looked great either. Hopefully  McD keeps running that.