[Vague Title] It continues... Josh Allen...

[Scorp83]

Hour 1 from Howard & Jeremy this morning on the Football Outsiders write up...(which I've posted the link below).

 

https://app.radio.com/s2OuDBPrGO

 

 

Man... this guy scares me. This write up.... wow.

 

 

 

From the Write Up:

 

"A parody of an NFL quarterback prospect, Allen was abysmal in 2017 en route to not even making an all-Mountain West team. We don't want to say there's absolutely no chance he'll ever be good – he's got a deep ball, he's got some ability to make plays on the run and under pressure – but there is zero empirical evidence to support him becoming a reasonable NFL starting quarterback. And if you thought the excuses for his supporting cast were bad in Wyoming, wait till you see this Bills offense. ... Allen is the battleground that old scouts are going to die on, whether they're right about it or, as all evidence suggests, wrong about it."

 

 

 

[BN] Blitz newsletter: Get your popcorn ready for this Josh Allen take – The Buffalo News
https://buffalonews.com/2018/07/24/josh-allen-take-football-outsiders-bills-almanac-scouts/

[jr1]

they haven't even had a preseason game yet

[ToGoGo]

Crap article. 

[Teddy KGB]

Crap OP  Crusade

[Elite Poster]

Let it play out. Analytics are reliable, but not 100%. They can't take into account fixing footwork, better coaching, etc. 

 

I'm skeptical on him but I'm not throwing him into the trash before camp even begins. 

[GunnerBill]

But can I look now? And is he there?

 

These are questions that demand answers.  

[Fadingpain]

This is the sort of thing I have been saying since the moment we drafted him.  

 

He is a perfect test case for old school "I know what I see" football people vs. new age data driven analysis.

 

The former loves his size, arm strength, and potential; the latter suggests he is highly unlikely to become even a serviceable NFL QB.

 

There is tremendous optimism for his success at this forum, but it is not rooted in persuasive data.  It is simply a function of many good Bills fans being beyond desperate to finally have a real QB.  

 

It's been a while.

 

 

[RobH063]

Mike Trout struck out hundreds of times growing up playing baseball. He made hundreds of errors too. I knew he would never be any good.

[billieve420]

I don't have confidence with the talent surrounding Allen to begin with and I think it will be detrimental to his development if he sees the field this year. I am hoping the Bills redshirt him this year and bring him along slowly while they attempt to rebuild this offense.

[buffalostu2]

4 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

This is the sort of thing I have been saying since the moment we drafted him.  

 

He is a perfect test case for old school "I know what I see" football people vs. new age data driven analysis.

 

The former loves his size, arm strength, and potential; the latter suggests he is highly unlikely to become even a serviceable NFL QB.

 

There is tremendous optimism for his success at this forum, but it is not rooted in persuasive data.  It is simply a function of many good Bills fans being beyond desperate to finally have a real QB.  

 

It's been a while.

 

 

Doesn't Wentz pass this same test?

[Cornette's Commentary]

17 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:

Hour 1 from Howard & Jeremy this morning on the Football Outsiders write up...(which I've posted the link below).

 

https://app.radio.com/s2OuDBPrGO

 

 

Man... this guy scares me. This write up.... wow.

 

 

 

From the Write Up:

 

"A parody of an NFL quarterback prospect, Allen was abysmal in 2017 en route to not even making an all-Mountain West team. We don't want to say there's absolutely no chance he'll ever be good – he's got a deep ball, he's got some ability to make plays on the run and under pressure – but there is zero empirical evidence to support him becoming a reasonable NFL starting quarterback. And if you thought the excuses for his supporting cast were bad in Wyoming, wait till you see this Bills offense. ... Allen is the battleground that old scouts are going to die on, whether they're right about it or, as all evidence suggests, wrong about it."

 

 

 

[BN] Blitz newsletter: Get your popcorn ready for this Josh Allen take – The Buffalo News
https://buffalonews.com/2018/07/24/josh-allen-take-football-outsiders-bills-almanac-scouts/

Go join the Ravens message board and never come back.

[uticaclub]

This again? All the pre draft and post draft was all about how there very little evidence he will be good based on prior performance. Can't we just billieve he will be good until we boo him off the field 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, buffalostu2 said:

Doesn't Wentz pass this same test?

 

I am not one who thinks stats are the way to assess a Quarterback - but Wentz satisfied many more of the analytical data points that some believe suggest franchise QB than Allen does. 

[HansLanda]

This talk may be premature even one calendar year from today. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

5 minutes ago, buffalostu2 said:

Doesn't Wentz pass this same test?

Wentz averaged 64.1% completion, I think we all know how Allen did

 

We shall see soon enough if he can be "fixed" or not.  

 

I did find this line interesting, "And if you thought the excuses for his supporting cast were bad in Wyoming, wait till you see this Bills offense", yes probably true but how is it a "fair" test of Allen if our offense will be as dreadful as he implies.  

[Shaw66]

Everyone's entitled to his opinion, but you'd like the opinion to make sense. 

 

He says "there's zero empirical evidence" to support him becoming a reasonable starting quarterback.  What?   He has one of the best arms in the history of the league, so that's some empirical evidence.   He can run, so that's some empirical evidence.   He had a 37 on the Wonderlic.   That's some empirical evidence.  His trajectory as a developing QB is trending upward.  That's some empirical evidence.  

 

There is a very simple truth about college quarterbacks:  If you aren't Andrew Luck, there is no reliable predictor of success in the NFL.   These guys haven't even been to training camp.  At this point there is no meaningful difference in the probabilities that Rosen, Allen, Mayfield and Darnold will be effective NFL starters at some point.   None of them is a sure-fire starter; none of them is a sure-fire bust.   

 

Declaring any of these guys as certifiable busts now is pure guess work.   Sure, it can be your opinion, but that just means you're opinion isn't supported by sufficient evidence to make it credible.   Each of these guys has too many positive measureables, each of these guys has been vetted and found to be a quality prospect by multiple pro teams, to make a certifiable-bust opinion make anything but guessing.  

[Cornette's Commentary]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

Everyone's entitled to his opinion, but you'd like the opinion to make sense. 

 

He says "there's zero empirical evidence" to support him becoming a reasonable starting quarterback.  What?   He has one of the best arms in the history of the league, so that's some empirical evidence.   He can run, so that's some empirical evidence.   He had a 37 on the Wonderlic.   That's some empirical evidence.  His trajectory as a developing QB is trending upward.  That's some empirical evidence.  

 

There is a very simple truth about college quarterbacks:  If you aren't Andrew Luck, there is no reliable predictor of success in the NFL.   These guys haven't even been to training camp.  At this point there is no meaningful difference in the probabilities that Rosen, Allen, Mayfield and Darnold will be effective NFL starters at some point.   None of them is a sure-fire starter; none of them is a sure-fire bust.   

 

Declaring any of these guys as certifiable busts now is pure guess work.   Sure, it can be your opinion, but that just means you're opinion isn't supported by sufficient evidence to make it credible.   Each of these guys has too many positive measureables, each of these guys has been vetted and found to be a quality prospect by multiple pro teams, to make a certifiable-bust opinion make anything but guessing.  

Well said, Shaw!  Bottom line, Scorp83 wanted Lamar Jackson, he got Josh Allen, and now he's mad about it.

[hondo in seattle]

When the draft was looming - and then especially in the aftermath of the draft - I read a lot about Allen and watched some film.

 

Opinions are strongly divided.  Some smart football think really highly of him.  Some don't.   I don't know if the division is entirely an 'analytics' versus 'old-school' thing but there's certainly a difference of opinion.  

 

I don't which camp is right.  And I won't know for a while.  For now, I'm content that the Bills went for the QB they believed had the highest upside.    At this point, all a fan can do is wait and see.  

 

New opinions on the matter just don't faze me much any more.   I really don't care what Football Outsiders thinks.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

 

 

He says "there's zero empirical evidence" to support him becoming a reasonable starting quarterback.  What?   He has one of the best arms in the history of the league, so that's some empirical evidence.   He can run, so that's some empirical evidence.   He had a 37 on the Wonderlic.   That's some empirical evidence.  His trajectory as a developing QB is trending upward.  That's some empirical evidence.  

 

 

Think the 4th of those is opinion.  His 2016 tape is better (not a lot, but better) than his 2017 tape.  

[Gugny]

Has anyone here tried smoking pastrami or Canadian bacon before?

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, Gugny said:

Has anyone here tried smoking pastrami or Canadian bacon before?

 

I haven't smoked pastrami but I have smoked other things.

[MiltonWaddams]

1 minute ago, Gugny said:

Has anyone here tried smoking pastrami or Canadian bacon before?

I made a Philly Blunt with honey ham once....

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

Has anyone here tried smoking pastrami or Canadian bacon before?

Are either of those even flammable?

[Teddy KGB]

4 minutes ago, Gugny said:

Has anyone here tried smoking pastrami or Canadian bacon before?

 

Not a big Pastrami guy.    Can you make some some corned beef ?

[JinxedBill1]

Well we will put you on the told you so list should he bust. 

 

For now forgive us for supporting him and asking you to until proved otherwise.

 

 

[CommonCents]

In college we once used a piece of a pizza box to “roll” up some weed, we all got very sick. I’m not sure if pastrami will work but definitely don’t use a pizza box. I’d go with the bacon. 

[Gugny]

36 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:

Hour 1 from Howard & Jeremy this morning on the Football Outsiders write up...(which I've posted the link below).

 

https://app.radio.com/s2OuDBPrGO

 

 

Man... this guy scares me. This write up.... wow.

 

 

 

From the Write Up:

 

"A parody of an NFL quarterback prospect, Allen was abysmal in 2017 en route to not even making an all-Mountain West team. We don't want to say there's absolutely no chance he'll ever be good – he's got a deep ball, he's got some ability to make plays on the run and under pressure – but there is zero empirical evidence to support him becoming a reasonable NFL starting quarterback. And if you thought the excuses for his supporting cast were bad in Wyoming, wait till you see this Bills offense. ... Allen is the battleground that old scouts are going to die on, whether they're right about it or, as all evidence suggests, wrong about it."

 

 

 

[BN] Blitz newsletter: Get your popcorn ready for this Josh Allen take – The Buffalo News
https://buffalonews.com/2018/07/24/josh-allen-take-football-outsiders-bills-almanac-scouts/

 

Please try to stay on topic. 

[GimmeSomeProcess]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not one who thinks stats are the way to assess a Quarterback - but Wentz satisfied many more of the analytical data points that some believe suggest franchise QB than Allen does. 

What would that be completion percentage? Otherwise Allen has he same amount of tds (rushing and throwing) same amount of yards and more ints(which is why wentz went 1 and Allen 7). 

[thenorthremembers]

Statistical analysis of both on the field performance and athletic measurables would tell you E.J. Manuel should have been a better than average starting quarterback in the league.  This would also be the case for Robert Griffin III, Brandon Weeden, and Mark Sanchez.  Each of these guys was more statistically accurate than Tom Brady in college, did it make them better than him in the NFL?    Matt Ryan is statistically one of the top five most accurate passers of all time and he completed 59.9% of his passes at the college level.   As much as I'd like to have an algorithm for accurately predicting a Franchise Quarterback, it doesn't exist, that is why there are so few of them.   There are way too many variables that go into the output of statistics, especially at a college level.  

 

I would have much preferred Mayfield or Darnold, in fact Allen as the one guy I was dreading the Bills picking.   However, at this point its a wait and see thing.   The only predictor in assessing a quarterbacks ability in the NFL, is actual NFL action.   

[hondo in seattle]

26 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

Let it play out. Analytics are reliable, but not 100%. They can't take into account fixing footwork, better coaching, etc. 

 

I'm skeptical on him but I'm not throwing him into the trash before camp even begins. 

 

Agreed - to a point.  

 

Analytics work better in baseball than they do in football.

 

And they work better in the NFL than they do in college.  

[Gugny]

3 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

In college we once used a piece of a pizza box to “roll” up some weed, we all got very sick. I’m not sure if pastrami will work but definitely don’t use a pizza box. I’d go with the bacon. 

 

As we all know, Canadian Bacon is just another word for "Ham," and I'm not sure if that'll work.

[mannc]

33 minutes ago, jr1 said:

they haven't even had a preseason game yet

They haven’t even had an actual practice yet.

[Fadingpain]

9 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Statistical analysis of both on the field performance and athletic measurables would tell you E.J. Manuel should have been a better than average starting quarterback in the league.  This would also be the case for Robert Griffin III, Brandon Weeden, and Mark Sanchez.  Each of these guys was more statistically accurate than Tom Brady in college, did it make them better than him in the NFL?    Matt Ryan is statistically one of the top five most accurate passers of all time and he completed 59.9% of his passes at the college level.   As much as I'd like to have an algorithm for accurately predicting a Franchise Quarterback, it doesn't exist, that is why there are so few of them.   There are way too many variables that go into the output of statistics, especially at a college level.  

 

I would have much preferred Mayfield or Darnold, in fact Allen as the one guy I was dreading the Bills picking.   However, at this point its a wait and see thing.   The only predictor in assessing a quarterbacks ability in the NFL, is actual NFL action.   

Disagree with the bolded, but otherwise agree with most of what you are saying here.

 

I also agree that at this point, Allen is the guy and now it's time to see what he can do.  

 

The entire story of this training camp is the progression of Allen and if he is going to start Game #1 for the team, or maybe a little bit later. 

 

I am totally opposed to the myths that he needs to "sit and watch" or "be developed behind a veteran QB" and all that sort of thing.

 

He needs to play and play soon.

 

 

[MAJBobby]

35 minutes ago, RobH063 said:

Mike Trout struck out hundreds of times growing up playing baseball. He made hundreds of errors too. I knew he would never be any good.

The Nee baseball analytics says Yes he would. 

 

Again test Case. If Allen Passes. Old school eye test scouts get the win. If he fails another feather in the analytics cap. 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

What would that be completion percentage? Otherwise Allen has he same amount of tds (rushing and throwing) same amount of yards and more ints(which is why wentz went 1 and Allen 7). 

 

Again, I am not defending the analytics stats lovers - I believe in watching tape.  But I believe completion percentage, performance against teams from higher level conferences, turnover %, being a senior etc all that sort of stuff. Again.... I am not defending the people who say you look at statistics and predict who is a franchise QB.  But the people who believe in that would say it was more than just completion %.  

[MAJBobby]

Josh Allen is my internal conflict. 

 

The Bills fan in me wants him to succed. But that also empowers the old school thinking. 

 

The Analytics and new way to look at talent fan in me wants him to fail, because success will be the old school thinkers Mountain and well what about case. 

 

 

 

 

Now that said. Go Allen be great. 

Edited July 24, 2018 by MAJBobby

[Buffalo716]

22 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

In college we once used a piece of a pizza box to “roll” up some weed, we all got very sick. I’m not sure if pastrami will work but definitely don’t use a pizza box. I’d go with the bacon. 

 

Wtf man use an apple before that s***!

[Fadingpain]

38 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

This again? All the pre draft and post draft was all about how there very little evidence he will be good based on prior performance. Can't we just billieve he will be good until we boo him off the field 

...in week 4.  And then start to rationalize why the 5 INTs were a fluke and Peterman can actually be a great QB.

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

55 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:

We don't want to say there's absolutely no chance he'll ever be good – he's got a deep ball,

 

I'm kind of shocked a writer for Football Outsiders doesn't understand that the deep ball is only like 20% of why arm strength is important. The rest of it is the ability to execute plays in a timing offense to perfection. Take Peterman's last pass in the Jaguars game. He actually threw the ball right on time and arguably made the correct read. But it didn't matter because Jalen Ramsey was able to get to the ball. If Allen makes that exact throw, it wouldn't be an interception. At best Ramsey could have broken up the ball. The ability to throw the ball faster than a defender can catch up to it gives Allen a tremendous edge over other passers. Obviously that alone won't be enough. But anyone who sums up arm strength as "can throw the ball far" is way off the mark.

[Bangarang]

If he was drafted by literally any other team, these criticisms would have merit.