Interesting Take From QB Guru on Allen

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

Yeah different levels of development I view Allen as a 2 year project and Darnold Mayfield Rosen ready in 1 year or less

 

Rudolph may be ready early, Jackson will need a year or 2

Well, Darnold is my favorite, but it's unlikely we will have a shot at him.  If Beane thinks Allen needs two years, I don't think he will be considered.

[Buffalo716]

21 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Just curious, what were the percentages for the other top 3 QBs?

By my account Baker threw 53 balls at or behind the LoS out of 404 attempts good for about 13%

 

i did not keep an exact tab on Rosen and Darnold because I did not feel it warranted it

 

Allen was a complete question mark so I wanted very advanced metrics. Baker was in a gimmicky offense so I wanted to see how many screens he actually threw and Lamar was is in the same boat as Allen

 

I have tons of metrics for Rosen and Darnold but not an exact # of passes behind or at LoS... With the #s i have I would estimate Rosen at around 18-20% and Darnold at 17-19%

[Wagon Circler]

Josh Allen I call the "White Cardale". 

[whatdrought]

1 hour ago, Lurker said:

 

Man, that was painful to watch.    I just don't see the "arm talent" I keep hearing about. 

 

I don't see a live arm, just a strong one on a so-so athlete...

 

I mean, I might not know what I am talking about but I saw some great throws in that video that showed power and accuracy, especially given the fact that he had very little time to make the throws. 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

By my account Baker threw 53 balls at or behind the LoS out of 404 attempts good for about 13%

 

i did not keep an exact tab on Rosen and Darnold because I did not feel it warranted it

 

Allen was a complete question mark so I wanted very advanced metrics. Baker was in a gimmicky offense so I wanted to see how many screens he actually threw and Lamar was is in the same boat as Allen

 

I have tons of metrics for Rosen and Darnold but not an exact # of passes behind or at LoS... With the #s i have I would estimate Rosen at around 18-20% and Darnold at 17-19%

Thanks. Much appreciated. 

[Lurker]

1 minute ago, whatdrought said:

 

I mean, I might not know what I am talking about but I saw some great throws in that video that showed power and accuracy, especially given the fact that he had very little time to make the throws. 

 

I don't see a natural "flick" of the wrist type throwing motion--where the revs on the ball are amazingly tight and it looks like its on a rope--that I see with elite NFL QBs.   Allen's ball seems to push through the air, rather than aerodynamically cut through it.   The QBs that can spin it seem to have the best accuracy as well.   

 

In other words, I saw more EJ Manuel, less Aaron Rogers...

 

 

[blacklabel]

Josh Allen cut in front of me at a CVS. He's an entitled jerk-face. I almost judo-chopped him straight back to Wyoming but I restrained myself.

[Luka]

I like that it's 2018 and people are still using the term "tape." Half of you have probably never watched anything on tape.

[jrober38]

2 hours ago, BillsSbSoon said:

There is some truth to this. This narrative being pushed that baker is the most accurate qb in the class is bogus. He is not more accurate than rosen. Baker throws a good ball yeah, but his % was def inflated by a lot of screens and quick flares. From what ive watched of allen thus far i dont think hes as innacurate as hes being made out to be 

 

This detailed breakdown that charted the success of every throw each QB made strongly disagrees with your assessment. 

 

Mayfield is the most accurate QB in the draft. 

 

Allen is the least accurate QB in the draft. 

 

https://d3d2maoophos6y.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/25/2018/03/06171800/2018-Contextualized-Quarterbacking3.pdf

[aceman_16]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Do they realize people who don't like Allen have watched a lot of tape on him too?

Actually....  Probably,  as a whole,  not true.

[mead107]

They should have talked about our pick Riley 

[BillsSbSoon]

19 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

This detailed breakdown that charted the success of every throw each QB made strongly disagrees with your assessment. 

 

Mayfield is the most accurate QB in the draft. 

 

Allen is the least accurate QB in the draft. 

 

https://d3d2maoophos6y.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/25/2018/03/06171800/2018-Contextualized-Quarterbacking3.pdf

I dont care. You cannot honestly tell me if you watch rosen and baker that baker is more accurate. Rosen played in a pro style offense. Baker played in a system where he made a lot of easy throws and extended handoffs. Georgia shut him down in the playoff game too when they pressed the corners and forced him to make tight throws. He did make tough throws too though. But he is not the same level of passer is rosen is. I dont care what statistic you throw out. 

Edited April 25, 2018 by BillsSbSoon

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, BillsSbSoon said:

I dont care. You cannot honestly tell me if you watch rosen and baker that baker is more accurate. Rosen played in a pro style offense. Baker played in a system where he made a lot of easy throws and extended handoffs. Georgia shut him down in the playoff game too when they pressed the corners and forced him to make tight throws. He did make tough throws too though. But he is not the same level of passer is rosen is. I dont care what statistic you throw out. 

 

I agree. Rosen and Mayfield are the tops for accuracy. I favour Mayfield, but both of them have outstanding accuracy. 

 

This thread is about Josh Allen, and his QB coach making a bunch of excuses for why he's not a good passer. It doesn't matter how he spins it, Allen is one of the least accurate QBs in the draft, and guys like him have no history of going on to be successful in the NFL over the past 20 years. 

Edited April 25, 2018 by jrober38

[cle23]

I think more than the distance and type of passes he threw,  Allen was under pressure a lot more than others in this class. 

[twist_to_open]

3 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I have watched and broke down every single  play from Allen’s career at Wyoming 

 

Palmer saying he doenst throw screens is a little bias. By my account he threw 49 passes out of 270 at or behind the line of scrimmage 

 

that is 18% and higher than Lamar Jackson at 15%

You actually watched every single play of his?.......hardcore!

[Perk71]

ALLEN!!

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

This morning on WGR they had Jordan Palmer on.  Despite swearing to God I would never listen to one more word about the stupid draft until it's over, I found his take on Josh Allen very interesting. He said keep in mind that completion percentage is very different between certain players when you consider the offenses they played in. For example Baker Mayfield threw to wide open receivers on more than half his throws last year while Josh Allen's film showed his receivers had very little separation. 

He also said you should add 6 to 10 points on to the completion percentage of a quarterback who runs the type of offense that Allen did when compared to an offense like Mayfield's. 

His logic is that there are a lot of very high completion plays such as bubble screens, smokes, quick slants, even shovel passes that many other offenses run but Allen's didn't.  These are easy throws that inflate stats. 

    

He went on to say that despite Josh Allen playing in junior college three years ago, the guy is mature and has a magnetic personality, great teammate and he was very high on him being successful in the NFL.   He compared his personality to Fitzy. 

If we do end up taking the kid, I suggest you go play the clip of the interview on the GR website, it will keep you from walking into the lake. 

He hasn’t completed 60% of his passes since little league.  I respect Palmer’s opinion but he is also trying to prop up his guy.  Another borderline nfl qb and brother of a far more successful one, Tim Hasselbeck, said Allen would be his 4th qb.

 

i hate bashing a college kid but what would you be willing to put more money on,Allen being a good or bad nfl qb?  He was barely a good qb in the MWC.

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, twist_to_open said:

You actually watched every single play of his?.......hardcore!

 

I am fortunate enough to be employed in football so I watch tons of game film on college prospects

 

i watched Every play on Darnold, Rosen, Allen,  mayfield, Jackson and Mike White... i put my reports on them in The college football section

[BillsSbSoon]

16 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I agree. Rosen and Mayfield are the tops for accuracy. I favour Mayfield, but both of them have outstanding accuracy. 

 

This thread is about Josh Allen, and his QB coach making a bunch of excuses for why he's not a good passer. It doesn't matter how he spins it, Allen is one of the least accurate QBs in the draft, and guys like him have no history of going on to be successful in the NFL over the past 20 years. 

I agree with all that for the most part. But watching him i gotta say i dont think hes as horrendusly inaccurate as hes made out to be. For one thing his wr's couldnt seem to get separation a lot of the time. He wasnt exactly playing with a lot of talent

[jrober38]

21 minutes ago, BillsSbSoon said:

I agree with all that for the most part. But watching him i gotta say i dont think hes as horrendusly inaccurate as hes made out to be. For one thing his wr's couldnt seem to get separation a lot of the time. He wasnt exactly playing with a lot of talent

 

He wasn't playing against anyone with talent either. 

 

He played only 3 power conference teams and struggled against Mountain West competition. 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, BillsSbSoon said:

I agree with all that for the most part. But watching him i gotta say i dont think hes as horrendusly inaccurate as hes made out to be. For one thing his wr's couldnt seem to get separation a lot of the time. He wasnt exactly playing with a lot of talent

He also completed less than 50% of his passes at a low level JUCO.  

 

For example, people liked Connor Cook last year. Cook was like a 56% passer in the Big Ten and couldn’t beat out EJ.  It just amazes me the love people have for Allen.  I’d love for him to be good.  But man, he makes me super nervous.

[greeneblitz]

5 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

Palmer has been pumping up Allen the whole process.  He worked with both Darnold and Allen this year extensively.  Teams are a lot higher on Allen than fans.

This is because fans are generally dumb and look at a couple of stat lines and form their battle lines. Professionals spend hundred of hours vetting these guys and their play.

[Fadingpain]

All advanced statistics try to take something that is incredibly complex and distill it down to a simple result with a simple calculation.  It's not that simple.

 

To really get a "correct" answer, a model needs to be incredibly complex with many variables.

Something like "completion percentage" is more complicated than simply keeping track of whether or not a pass was caught for a gain.

 

What you are really trying to decide, anyway, is if the QB is an accurate passer.  Completion % doesn't really tell you the full story with regard to that.

 

[C.Biscuit97]

Also, how did Jordan Palmer become a QB guru? Does anyone know Travis Brown’s or Levi Brown’s thoughts on this class?

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

5 hours ago, kdiggz said:

Palmer is Allen's QB coach. What is he going to say? He sucks? 

hmmmm kind of expected him to say he hasn't had anyone to coach him up yet.

5 hours ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

 

They're NOT buffalo wings, Josh....

?. Is this Northeastern wing snobbery ?

5 hours ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

 

They're NOT buffalo wings, Josh....

 

Edited April 25, 2018 by MOVALLEYRANDY

[JohnC]

5 hours ago, whatdrought said:

I don't watch much tape, so this thread prompted me to look for "bad tape" of Allen (and I did not look all that far, so feel free to show me other examples) and I found this game against Iowa. 

 

 

The stat line seemed to indicate that this would be bad tape, but after watching this I actually like Allen more. He's doing a lot here with absolutely no protection and no separation by his receivers. I'm not saying he's going to be great, but this tape which at first I thought would be bad, showed me a QB who (obviously has rough edges) knows how to make things happen. 

 

(those interceptions were both rough though.) 

Raw talent. Would not be afraid to take him if the other options are not available. If you want to get a return on him you need patience and good coaching. While many so no I say why not and fear not! 

[BillsSbSoon]

30 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

He also completed less than 50% of his passes at a low level JUCO.  

 

For example, people liked Connor Cook last year. Cook was like a 56% passer in the Big Ten and couldn’t beat out EJ.  It just amazes me the love people have for Allen.  I’d love for him to be good.  But man, he makes me super nervous.

Yeah hes raw theres no doubt about it. Someone is going to think hes a poor mans cam newton though. I wasnt a cook guy but theres not much comparison between the two in terms of raw talent

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, BillsSbSoon said:

I agree with all that for the most part. But watching him i gotta say i dont think hes as horrendusly inaccurate as hes made out to be. For one thing his wr's couldnt seem to get separation a lot of the time. He wasnt exactly playing with a lot of talent

 Yes that is true.  He played 2 years with a community college football program and only two of 350 or so 4 year colleges even answered his requests for a 'ship.   He is clueless about playing with nfl level WR or DB.  He might learn this.  He might not have the timing in his brain to be able to learn this.  The Bills should pass on this dicey guy and build on someone who has been there and done this.

[BillsSbSoon]

2 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

He wasn't playing against anyone with talent either. 

 

He played only 3 power conference teams and struggled against Mountain West competition. 

Yeah i know. Its a gigantic gamble with him any way you look at it. 

[LeGOATski]

What about throwing at stationary target nets who aren't being covered by anyone?

 

What causes that miss?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

This morning on WGR they had Jordan Palmer on.  Despite swearing to God I would never listen to one more word about the stupid draft until it's over, I found his take on Josh Allen very interesting.

 

I think they should have all the QB gurus each draft prospect is working with, "on" to gush about them (Palmer has been coaching Allen)

 

 

 

1 hour ago, BillsSbSoon said:

Yeah hes raw theres no doubt about it. Someone is going to think hes a poor mans cam newton though.

 

And that's fine if he's drafted in a "poor man's Cam Newton" slot.

[Buffalo86]

Jordan Palmer is Allen's personal trainer, so his words aren't likely to change many minds among front office personnel, scouts,  draft gurus, or message board posters.  

[CSBill]

7 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I have watched and broke down every single  play from Allen’s career at Wyoming 

 

Palmer saying he doenst throw screens is a little bias. By my account he threw 49 passes out of 270 at or behind the line of scrimmage 

 

that is 18% and higher than Lamar Jackson at 15%

 

You watched every one of his plays at Wyoming? ..... not sure whether laugh or cry.

[Augie]

7 hours ago, kdiggz said:

Palmer is Allen's QB coach. What is he going to say? He sucks? 

 

“....but he was terrific before I got ahold of him!” 

 

The very first pass I ever saw Allen throw was a bubble screen to his left. He one hopped it to the WR and I did the EJ shudder. That’s hard for me to get over. I’ve seen awesome, and I’ve seen blecht! 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

7 hours ago, Boyst62 said:

I prefer the adage that no QB improves their completion percentage in the pros from college 

 

Not so just to name two 

 

Drew Brees

Tom Brady 

 

Add - Stafford 

im sure there are more 

Edited April 25, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Wily Dog]

17 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Not so just to name two 

 

Drew Brees

Tom Brady 

 

Add - Stafford 

im sure there are more 

Favre

[Buffalo86]

34 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Not so just to name two 

 

Drew Brees

Tom Brady 

 

Add - Stafford 

im sure there are more 

 

16 minutes ago, Wily Dog said:

Favre

 

Good points, though Favre is the only one I can think of who never hit 60%.

 

Interesting article I came across that paints 58.5% in a player's final college year as the threshold for failure:  

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/65zs0w/oc_why_585_is_the_magic_number_for_qbs_in_the_nfl/

 

[Green Lightning]

8 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I think it's because a lot of folks who bash Allen focus on completion percentage.  

It's because his completion percentage sucked, and no revisionist stats is going to change that. Top it off his quarterback ranking gets cut in half every time he's blitzed. Please, no Allen!

[Buffalo Ballin]

8 hours ago, sven233 said:

Everyone knows how I feel about Allen on this board.  I want no part of him.....especially if it requires a trade up.  There are 4 other guys in this draft I want more and I think it would be a failure to come out of this draft with Allen.

 

However, I will say this about Allen and defend him a bit.  I watched all but 1 of his games this year.  We all know he has the physical tools you dream about a QB having.  But one of the reasons a lot of us a terrified of taking him is his accuracy and completion percentage.

 

What Palmer, Mayock, etc. are saying is indeed true.  The offense he played in was a vertical offense that very rarely incorporated routes at less than 10 yards.  Yes, he did miss easy throws, but if you watch the games, you realize a lot of their offense was pushing the ball down the field in chunks.  You didn't see a ton of swing passes, screens, slants, etc.  Most everything was designed to push the ball down the field in chunks.  So yes.....with an offensive scheme designed to do this, it is only natural for the completion percentage to be down a bit.  Coupled with a complete lack of receiving talent, Allen was not put in the best position to succeed.  That said, there is no way his completion percentage should be THAT low playing in that conference.

 

To me, the reason I don't want him is more about other things.  I think he is slow to read the field at times, he very rarely anticipates throws and waits to see guys coming open to throw the ball winch cause him to be late on throws, and he bails out of the pocket way too early far too often.  Add that to the accuracy issues and you have a project QB that I want no part of.  There is such a disparity between how good and bad that Allen could end up being.  If he reaches his MAX potential, he could be Marino.  However, if he doesn't, there is a chance he could be out of the league or relegated to backup status before he ever sees the field.

 

Look, Josh Allen could very well end up being the best QB in the class when it is said and done.  He has the best physical tools in the draft.  But this is about achieving that potential and I firmly believe Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield all have a better chance to succeed.  I could also make the case that Jackson is a guy I would rather take than Allen.

 

I don't want to draft Allen.  I have been pushing all along to do whatever it takes for Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield.  WHATEVER IT TAKES.  Let some other team take the chance on Allen.  But as a guy that has watched a ton of Allen, not just the highlights, and just not looking at stats, I wanted to defend him a bit because he deserves a little better than what he has been getting.  That said - DARNOLD, ROSEN, OR MAYFIELD.  FINISH THE JOB.

Well said. He reminds me of EJ Manuel and Rob Johnson. Josh Allen physically looks the part, but when I examined his stats via Football Outsiders, yuck! His numbers compared to Mayfield, Rosen, Lamar Jackson, and Darnold are awful. Jesus Christ almighty.

[NoSaint]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't think that's true. Every time someone defends Allen as a top choice they say "people who hate him are just stat watchers, they haven't seen the tape." I can assure you we have. It's 2018. His tape is easy to find for anyone who wants to see it. Some people might bring up his completion percentage as a data point but it is not the end all be all of why he doesn't have a lot of fans.

 

Im not sure you speak for most. I think it’s a stretch to say even most here have watched a lot of his games to fully grasp the scheme he was in.... and this is a tiny sliver of the most obsessive fans.