Rumor: Trade up discussion with Giants

[KDIGGZ]

41 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I haven't liked a prospect more than Darnold since Andrew Luck. I think he has greatness in him. We shall see.

this is interesting to me.  horrible mechanics, sloppy footwork, poor ball security, 21 fumbles, but you think he's the best since Luck?  can you elaborate?  nothing i see on video makes me think he will be more than a game manager at the next level.  there are people that agree with you, he's ranked as #1 or #2 in a lot of mocks.  i just can't wrap my head around it

[PIZ]

I hope this makes people realize how much it would really cost to go to #2.  Seeing it in black and white is mind boggling.  To think some people thought we could package our #12, and one pick from each round to go to #2.  Now we are looking at the possibility of multiple 1st round picks and multiple picks overall.  I still would stay at 12 and keep the picks UNLESS you are 99% sure this guy is a franchise QB.  If there is any hesitation in that, then stay put and keep the picks.

[GG]

3 minutes ago, P51 said:

 

The point values IMO dont work out that favorably if I am reading this right, using the either the point value charts (Hill or Johnson) when comparing the cost of the Jets trade (34% increase/23rd pick value). Adding another 3rd is comparable and still less than the Jets trade. I agree completely about keeping the 2019 1st 100%.

 

Im pretty sure using the Jets trade as a comparison, its going to cost more that people think to move up to #2. 

 

To play the devil's advocate, Jets may have overpaid to move up.  How many teams can match what's proposed by the trade rumors?   And if the Bills are convince that the #2 QB is a franchise player, they have much more draft ammo than anyone. 

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Philip Rivers is a GREAT player who has been snakebitten. One name captures his bad luck: Marlon McCree. All you need to know. If not for him, the Chargers are likely the 2006 season SB winner. 

My point was that Rivers is very good, but has been unable to carry his team in most seasons.  The Chargers had some very good seasons in the first 5 years of his career, but since then, they haven't been big playoff threats.  Point taken though, so substitute Alex Smith, Jameis Winston, Carson Palmer, and a bunch of others who would not be called busts, but also weren't saviors either.

[RochesterRob]

4 minutes ago, 1ManRaid said:

Well in an odd way the fact that someone as BS as him went into such specifics kind of lends the report a weird credibility.

  So he has refined his "process."  Just like the guy who claims he was abducted by a UFO.  Nobody listens the first time so he embellishes the story with probing.  

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, P51 said:

 

The point values IMO dont work out that favorably if I am reading this right, using the either the point value charts (Hill or Johnson) when comparing the cost of the Jets trade (34% increase/23rd pick value). Adding another 3rd is comparable and still less than the Jets trade. I agree completely about keeping the 2019 1st 100%.

 

Im pretty sure using the Jets trade as a comparison, its going to cost more that people think to move up to #2. 

It won’t be cheap but fortunately the Giants can’t get an offer better than that. It is a matter of whether or not the Giants are comfortable moving down. They hold some cards because they have a desirable pick. We hold some cards in that we have the best possible offer.

[26TrapDraw]

30 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  You know for a fair amount of posters here that they are "self-servicing" themselves over the possibility.  

If I could do that I'd never leave the house.

Edited March 20, 2018 by BeefCurtns

[Pete]

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Take this as you will

 

vomit

 

[ChevyVanMiller]

3 hours ago, Xwnyer said:

Way to expensive 

Sure he's got to save a few bucks to buy the extra "o" for too.

Edited March 20, 2018 by ChevyVanMiller

[dave mcbride]

11 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

this is interesting to me.  horrible mechanics, sloppy footwork, poor ball security, 21 fumbles, but you think he's the best since Luck?  can you elaborate?  nothing i see on video makes me think he will be more than a game manager at the next level.  there are people that agree with you, he's ranked as #1 or #2 in a lot of mocks.  i just can't wrap my head around it

First off, I watch a fair amount of Pac-12 games because it's my alma mater's conference (UCLA). Darnold plays well in big games and at big moments. He is also a GREAT thrower who keeps plays alive a la Big Ben. I don't worry so much about the picks either because he is only 20 years old and played tough competition almost every week. Even against OSU this year in the bowl game, he was seriously let down by WRs who dropped two perfect throws that would have sustained early drives (both were on third down in the first quarter). Failing on those drives really put them in the hole, and once they got down, he was up against the most talented pass D in the nation (DEs and secondary). Even still, he played hard and well through the second half despite being way down (8 ypa in that game).  In 2017, their non-conference games were ND, Texas, and Western Michigan (which went 12-0 the previous season with Corey Davis). In 2016, just look at the offensive production starting in game 4, when he took over the job. http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-16/2016-usc-trojans-football-schedule.php#

Edited March 20, 2018 by dave mcbride

[26CornerBlitz]

Blocked by IB. Now there's a bad day for you. 

 

[RochesterRob]

4 minutes ago, PIZ said:

I hope this makes people realize how much it would really cost to go to #2.  Seeing it in black and white is mind boggling.  To think some people thought we could package our #12, and one pick from each round to go to #2.  Now we are looking at the possibility of multiple 1st round picks and multiple picks overall.  I still would stay at 12 and keep the picks UNLESS you are 99% sure this guy is a franchise QB.  If there is any hesitation in that, then stay put and keep the picks.

  That's the problem.  It does not matter who the Bills get at 2 if it were to happen as a number of heads will explode here based on the choice.  It's unavoidable. I guarantee that there will "I quit this team" threads within hours of us making our selection if we choose at 2.

[Warren Zevon]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

He plays well in big games and is a GREAT thrower who keeps plays alive a la Big Ben. I don't worry so much about the picks either because he is only 20 years old and played tough competition almost every week. Even against OSU this year in the bowl game, he was seriously let down by WRs who dropped two perfect throws that would have sustained early drives (both were on third down in the first quarter). Failing on those drives really put them in the hole, and once they got down, he was up against the most talented pass D in the nation (DEs and secondary). Even still, he played hard and well through the second half despite being way down (8 ypa in that game).  In 2017, their non-conference games were ND, Texas, Western Michigan (which went 12-0 the previous season with Corey Davis). In 2016, just look at the offensive production starting in game 4, when he took over the job. http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-16/2016-usc-trojans-football-schedule.php#

 

21 fumbles, though..

[Chuck Wagon]

Just a PSA "If they trade up, they had better be 99.9% sure that's the guy" is not an insightful thought.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, garybusey said:

 

21 fumbles, though..

He's young - as in really young. I don't worry so much about that. He's played two seasons against the highest level competition in a pro-like offense and unlike so many college qbs, he LOOKS like a pro thrower out there given the sorts of throws he tries to make. Mistakes are part of the learning process. There is a reason why he's pretty much the consensus #1 pick.  

[P51]

3 minutes ago, GG said:

 

To play the devil's advocate, Jets may have overpaid to move up.  How many teams can match what's proposed by the trade rumors?   And if the Bills are convince that the #2 QB is a franchise player, they have much more draft ammo than anyone. 

 

They did clearly overpay and that was just to move up from 6 to 3, but they did not pay too much over the going rate for a QB in the top 5 which if I remember correctly is about a 30% increase, they paid a 34% increase. 

 

Your right, not many teams can match what the Bills have to offer, but the Giants are not going to take pennies on the dollar, the market was set by the Jets trade. The Giants dont have to move down, they may take slightly less, but it would be bad business to take significantly less than market value. The Giants know the Bills have more ammo than everyone else besides the Browns and will squeeze them for as close to market value as possible, they are not going to give them a discount. 

 

It'll be up to the Bills to come up with a price point that they are comfortable with and hold firm and try to get the Giants to bite IMO. 

[BillsFan17]

4 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  That's the problem.  It does not matter who the Bills get at 2 if it were to happen as a number of heads will explode here based on the choice.  It's unavoidable. I guarantee that there will "I quit this team" threads within hours of us making our selection if we choose at 2.

Exactly, and honestly, more often than now they are blowing smoke out of their.... usually they are also a smaller group of fans that are the loudest with this type of nonsense.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Not side show Bob again....smh

[TheBrownBear]

6 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

this is interesting to me.  horrible mechanics, sloppy footwork, poor ball security, 21 fumbles, but you think he's the best since Luck?  can you elaborate?  nothing i see on video makes me think he will be more than a game manager at the next level.  there are people that agree with you, he's ranked as #1 or #2 in a lot of mocks.  i just can't wrap my head around it

 

Yeah, I'm left wondering the same.  He seemed to really regress last year.  I don't see much at all.  USC was a stacked preseason top-5 team and he could only lead them to a 3 loss season?  Josh Rosen averaged over 380 yard/games in games that he started and finished.  And that's with one of the worst o-line and receiving groups in the country.

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I don't think we'll have to pay a giant premium to trade up to #2.  It's in the Giants interest as well to not let the Jets get the 2nd best QB.  

right. it's all about being the #1 show in town and not playing second fiddle.

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, ALF said:

I posted in another tread

 

To move up to #2  might  offer #12  ,  #22  ,   2019  #1   and a player if necessary. Maybe 2019 , 2nd rd also

 

The Bills need the remainder of 2018 picks  for needed players now. 

 

With all the cap space in 2019 from dead cap leaving , will have plenty of cap space for free agency to cover loss of 2019 #1.

 

Giants will have big time offers after Jets moved to #3. This could be the most important draft ever.

 

I don’t think the Giants are going to get any offer other than a Bills offer.  There is no one left who needs a QB so bad they would mortgage their draft capital line this.

 

Bills have lots of leverage here actually, because there are not any other dance partners who would pay a bounty.  

[dave mcbride]

7 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

 

Yeah, I'm left wondering the same.  He seemed to really regress last year.  I don't see much at all.  USC was a stacked preseason top-5 team and he could only lead them to a 3 loss season?  Josh Rosen averaged over 380 yard/games in games that he started and finished.  And that's with one of the worst o-line and receiving groups in the country.

The draft is about projection, as I've said over and over. Darnold  -- who, again, is 20 -- can do things that Rosen can't do, and always performed better than Rosen in the bigger games (e.g., Stanford, an elite program). He has a better arm, is way better at extending plays, and while he's more of a damn-the-torpedoes gunslinger, I'm ok with that.  He had a good season this year, and in both of his seasons he's played reasonably tough competition nearly every week.  You do realize that one of the UCLA tackles (Kolton Miller) is likely to be drafted in the first round, right? Having said all of this, I like Rosen a lot and would be thrilled to land him.

Edited March 20, 2018 by dave mcbride

[HurlyBurly51]

When will people learn not to listen to IB.  I actually thought topics from that source were banned.

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The draft is about projection, as I've said over and over. Darnold  -- who, again, is 20 -- can do things that Rosen can't do, and always performed better in the bigger games. He has a better arm, is way better at extending plays, and while he's more of a damn-the-torpedoes gunslinger, I'm ok with that.  He had a good season this year, and in both of his seasons he's played reasonably tough competition nearly every week. 

 

Pro ready with on schedule performance vs. Bigger upside in addition to off script playmaking.   I'd be happy with either guy.

Edited March 20, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[terrytate]

Just FYI incarceratedbob is a fraud, but there is no doubt that I believe the two teams have had discussions.  

[P51]

8 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It won’t be cheap but fortunately the Giants can’t get an offer better than that. It is a matter of whether or not the Giants are comfortable moving down. They hold some cards because they have a desirable pick. We hold some cards in that we have the best possible offer.

 

Cheap it will not be, but some of these trade offers Im seeing arent realistic given the Jets trade, the Giants will leverage that increase in value, to what point I dont know, but I cant see them saying "Ok, the Colts got a 34% return for the 3rd pick to move down to 6+, we're good taking a 11% return to move 12+." The Bills do hold some cards. We very well may have the best offer, than its up to them, however, if the offer isnt good enough, its still up to them and they could just say its not good enough, we will take whomever.

 

I do think there can be some middle ground that would be palatable for both teams, I hope for the Bills there is and someone like the Cardinals dont come knocking out of the blue. 

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, terrytate said:

Just FYI incarceratedbob is a fraud, but there is no doubt that I believe the two teams have had discussions.  

I think most people know or suspect that, but this board would be really dull today without this thread.

1 minute ago, P51 said:

I do think there can be some middle ground that would be palatable for both teams, I hope for the Bills there is and someone like the Cardinals dont come knocking out of the blue. 

I don't think the Cardinals can really match what we can offer without paying ridiculous amounts from future drafts.

[DrDawkinstein]

21 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  That's the problem.  It does not matter who the Bills get at 2 if it were to happen as a number of heads will explode here based on the choice.  It's unavoidable. I guarantee that there will "I quit this team" threads within hours of us making our selection if we choose at 2.

 

Such is life on a message board. I myself, who doesnt like Jackson at all (for example), wouldnt complain if the Bills moved up to #2 and ended up picking him.

 

I just want the Bills to identify what they think will be a Franchise QB, as there has to be at least 1 in this group, and then do what they have to do to go get him. I'll leave it to the experts to decide who that is.

[Chandler#81]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

They have to. What I think some need to reconcile and come to terms with is their expectations for 2018. They may take a step back and not be good and not be a playoff team this year. To me, at least, that is ok. I want to build the team for the long term. The previous regimes were forever building for the short term. If it means a bad season this year with the rookie, but you are able to actually be a perennial contender after that as you continue to build around your QB - that should be the goal. Not 9-7 squeezing into a WC with a limited, bridge type QB every so often but no long term plan for consistent success like the teams who compete in the playoffs year in and year out. 

Again, agree completely. Most people agree we were clearly the least talented team in a Playoff year featuring 8 new teams from the previous season. Our outrageous T/O differential and Dalton’s unlikely 4th Down pass squeaked is in. I don’t expect playoffs this year, yet I hold out hope. I do expect to clearly see the Mc/Beane stamp on this team that will encourage a long stay in Buffalo. The main thread in all perennial playoff teams is a FO which stays in the fold for years. 

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, Xwnyer said:

Way to expensive 

 

Its too expensive if the QB we pick sucks.  If the qb we select turns out to be our QB for the next 15 years, then it’s a small price to pay.  Who ever they select better the good.  Steep price? Yes, but we’re talking about a QB. 

[Foxx]

4 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Take this as you will

 

 

i take it as Beane playing that 4D chess game again. he is tricking the Dolphins into trading up to the 2nd position. while all along he already has a trade in plce for the #1 overall with Cleveland.

 

 

[T-Bomb]

18 minutes ago, The Alpha Fire said:

Not side show Bob again....smh

 

Better than Bagdad Bob.

[P51]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I think most people know or suspect that, but this board would be really dull today without this thread.

I don't think the Cardinals can really match what we can offer without paying ridiculous amounts from future drafts.

 

I dont see the Cardinals doing it either, but you never know, the Bears paid a ridiculous price to move up 1 spot last year. The need for a QB makes some GM's do crazy things. Maybe the Bronco's fall in love with 2 guys and pay the price to move up to #2, who knows with the draft, maybe the Giants can get Nelson, Chubb or Barkley at 5 and pick some extra assets and are good with that, better than moving down to 12 in their eyes possibly. 

[Domdab99]

More and more I’m wanting them to stay at 12 and take Jackson. There’s no reason he can’t be as good of a QB as any of the other QBs in this draft.

Edited March 20, 2018 by Domdab99

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Again, agree completely. Most people agree we were clearly the least talented team in a Playoff year featuring 8 new teams from the previous season. Our outrageous T/O differential and Dalton’s unlikely 4th Down pass squeaked is in. I don’t expect playoffs this year, yet I hold out hope. I do expect to clearly see the Mc/Beane stamp on this team that will encourage a long stay in Buffalo. The main thread in all perennial playoff teams is a FO which stays in the fold for years. 

 

My big thing is, we finally got the drought monkey off our backs. That crap is DONE. If we slide a little this year getting a rookie up to speed and re-tooling the D, then so be it. They bought themselves some rope with the playoffs last year.

[BigBuff423]

45 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Then you would know it's not a "king's ransom". It's going rate for that type of move. Check the charts. It's one thing to not want to do something. It's another to say that it's not fair market value.

 

First, a king's ransom has nothing to do with fair market value since by definition, a ransom paid for holding a king hostage...and in this case, the #2 spot...my point was that the #2 spot cost is apparently quite similar to that of the 1st spot and so if I'm going to make that trade, I go to #1 with no quibbles over whether I get the guy I want...I know I'm on the clock already and get whomever I'd like....also, IMHO it is over priced based on what Eagles gave up for Wentz:

 

From ESPN when trade was made: "The Eagles sent five draft picks to the Browns: the No. 8 pick in the first round, a third-round pick (77th overall) and a fourth-round pick (100th overall) in this year's draft, a first-round pick in 2017 and a second-round pick in 2018. Cleveland also sends a fourth-round pick in 2017 to the Eagles." 

 

2016: 8th overall

            3rd Round pick

           4th Round pick

2017: 1st round pick

2018: 2nd round pick

 

Also received a 4th round pick from Cleveland along with #2 overall.

In the cited scenario for the Bills: 2018: 2 1st round picks in this year - making it far more valuable than giving up a 1st next year, a 2nd and 3rd round THIS year, making them far more valuable than a 2nd round pick two years later and ANOTHER 2nd round pick in 2019, and this is the price that drives it over the top. 

 

Personally, if they're going to do it, the two 1st, one 2nd this year, and a 1st next year should be it. Next year the Bills will have about $100 million in Cap space, so they can afford to use FA as the main way to acquire talent. But this year, all the positions of need for the Bills are deep: DT / LB / QB (of course) / RB and they should be using that to their advantage, not giving really good, cheap players on Rookie contracts in a year when they're very close to expending all the money they have. 

 

Think of it what you will....but I'm done with this conversation.

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Domdab99 said:

More and more I’m wanting them to stay at 12 and take Jackson. There’s no reason he can’t be as good of a WB as any of the other QBs in this draft.

I do think that is a plausible alternative strategy.  I am assuming Darnold and Rosen will be gone, but it's possible any one of Mayfield, Allen, or Jackson will be there.  If Mayfield drops past five, you could make a smaller deal to move up and grab him or wait for Jackson at twelve (I think he will be there.)

[billykay]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

If the Giants don't want to take a qb with their high pick some version of this deal would make a lot of sense for them. For Buffalo it would be a good deal because we have a bonus pick in the first, second and third round. So essentially we would still have the normal number of picks in most of the rounds. If the Giants squeeze us harder and demand a first round pick next year I would with a stone face (masking my happy face) say where do I sign? 

Lets say we move to #2. Does anyone think that it would be a good trade for us to move back to #3, especially if it seems that the Jets are panicking that they won't be getting their man? I think that we could wind up this way with our QB, perhaps Mayfield or Rosen, plus getting back some of the draft assets we lost in moving up to #2.

[Franco_92]

I'd add more.

Time to stop !@#$ing around, Buffalo Bills. Get your quarterback and build your team. 

 

I guarantee we won't be pissing and moaning 3 years from now about extra seconds/thirds when we're heading into a home AFC championship game. 

 

Even if it doesn't work, we still have a much greater chance of that in the near future if we make a move NOW for a qb like Rosen than if we wait another indeterminate amount of time, perpetually in a state of "that's too much" or "this qb class is weak, maybe next year".

 

!@#$ing do it.

Edited March 20, 2018 by arcane

[Real McClappy]

Giants would be fools not to take that offer if true. They can revamp everything they need in one draft.