Koko78 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, horned dogs said: The tape doesn't lie How do you reduce tape to an analytic report (you know, without actually forcing the person to watch the tape, which makes any analytic report unnecessary)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, Koko78 said: How do you reduce tape to an analytic report (you know, without actually forcing the person to watch the tape, which makes any analytic report unnecessary)? They just watch the tape and record relevant data, like the stuff you were talking about, analyze and present the findings to the coaches. The important part is what data you decide is important and how it is used. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freddie's Dead Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 What is quantifiable are 4th down stats and when to go for 2. Bills coaches have almost never made the right call for either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 30 minutes ago, horned dogs said: The tape doesn't lie I disagree 100%. Theres most certainly is a place for analytics and the good coaches use that information to their advantage. If you read the article, Beane’s not getting rid of the department. Just reshaping it to help the team better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: So basically Beane is getting rid of the Bills analytics department because it really sounds they were weren’t offering much to the football side of things. Dumb ass Rex wouldn't know what to do with analytics if it hit him over the head, so no direction from him. McD has shown he want's nothing to do with anything he didn't design-build himself, so nada input there. I hope the analytics guys had fun twiddling their thumbs and playing Candy Crush while they were here. Analytics is only good if you have a willing user.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 (edited) 45 minutes ago, Koko78 said: Analytics are great for games like baseball, where you can keep track of in-depth stats like how a particular batter does against left-handed pitchers or a certain type of pitch. So much of football isn't quantifiable. There are no stats as to whether a receiver ran the correct route on a play or whether a DB blew a coverage or was supposed to get safety help, for example. Others are misleading, such as interceptions or quarterback ratings (interceptions may or may not be the QBs fault, and ratings are only useful to generate a general estimate of efficiency over a long period of time.) It's also great in baseball because there are sooooooo many leagues, soooooo many players. You can't watch them all. You can look at numbers, and pull out a top 50 prospect list of guys you like, and then from there watch tape. Still always comes down to tape. Football there are things you can analyze - whether you should go for 2 in x situation, win probabilities etc. But you can't really use it for accurate player evaluation. So many positions literally have no stats at the end of a game. I assume coaches see on film when a run goes for no yards, who is at fault. I don't need a computer to tell me that. Edited January 26, 2018 by dneveu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 (edited) 54 minutes ago, Koko78 said: Analytics are great for games like baseball, where you can keep track of in-depth stats like how a particular batter does against left-handed pitchers or a certain type of pitch. So much of football isn't quantifiable. There are no stats as to whether a receiver ran the correct route on a play or whether a DB blew a coverage or was supposed to get safety help, for example. Others are misleading, such as interceptions or quarterback ratings (interceptions may or may not be the QBs fault, and ratings are only useful to generate a general estimate of efficiency over a long period of time.) good post. context is key absolutely ( get my mathematical humor there? ) all about quantifying estimates of measurements that are estimates of quantifiable measurements. < read this sentence slowly Kids. think upon my words. all contextual data. without context. Thanks Fantasy football ! But as humans we need to organize to develop opinions. The rest is History. Delighted about this move.Brandon sells tickets and that's fine. But don try to BS Bills Fans Russ. Go Bills ! Edited January 26, 2018 by 3rdand12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 22 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: I disagree 100%. Theres most certainly is a place for analytics and the good coaches use that information to their advantage. If you read the article, Beane’s not getting rid of the department. Just reshaping it to help the team better Disagree with what? Who said there was no place for analytics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blacklabel Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Paulus said: Too bad Russ has not been canned yet... Or, tarred and feathered by Bills' fans. I swear, that guy has dirt on someone. Or, he is an insanely good ass-suck. He's a huge reason why the team set season ticket sales records and still managed to sell out most games during the drought. He's a wiz of a businessman but shoulda never been allowed near football ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 22 minutes ago, blacklabel said: He's a huge reason why the team set season ticket sales records and still managed to sell out most games during the drought. He's a wiz of a businessman but shoulda never been allowed near football ops. and he no longer is. case in point. Go Bills ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulus Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 25 minutes ago, blacklabel said: He's a huge reason why the team set season ticket sales records and still managed to sell out most games during the drought. He's a wiz of a businessman but shoulda never been allowed near football ops. See, I think that might have to do with the culture in Buffalo. A lot of the teams who play in cold weather have strong fan bases, period. In b4 Browns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ricojes Posted January 26, 2018 Author Share Posted January 26, 2018 10 hours ago, ndirish1978 said: Appreciate it. Sorry for coming off like a jagoff, you're well within your rights to post whatever you want and it's not my place to be a prick about it. no worries... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevewin Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 12 hours ago, ricojes said: Brandon conceded it's fair to say Lyons' work pertained more to the Bills' ticket pricing than with X's and O's. Oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Boy Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 3 hours ago, White Linen said: I don't think Bills fans buy tickets because they're stupid and easily duped. We're as smart of a fan base as any. Sorry but..... a bunch of guys keeping season tickets through a 17 year playoff drought with such marquee coaches as Dick Jerkron, Greggo and St. Doug..... smart??? That sounds like a bunch of Mularkey ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marv's Neighbor Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 4 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said: Tell me Russ Brandon doesn't remind you of that creepy overzealous car salesman. How do we do it??? Volume! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nihilarian Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 6 hours ago, Fadingpain said: This sort of thing represents the old Bills, the middling, crap organization that always half-assed it and achieved little in success for its history, save the glorious time around the Superbowl years. I genuinely believe all that stuff is finally behind us and we are now a much more professionally run organization, by people who get it. I still say things are looking up and, in fact, have not looked this good in a generation. The Bills FO was so blazingly stupid with stuff like this under Brandon. He probably watched the movie moneyball and decided that would be good for the Buffalo Bills...then the team went out and spent 100 million on super Mario to drive up ticket sales. It wasn't about building a championship team to actually compete against the Patriots as it was more all about selling tickets like a huckster. Looking back it was his own stupidity that did him in, with his contact with HC Doug Marrone. If he hadn't given him that buy out clause then the Bills might still have Marrone, Whaley, Brandon leading this franchise. On another note, now that Andrew Luck will have Josh McDaniels as his HC in Indy and DeShaun Watson is back healthy with the Texans I highly doubt the Jags repeat in getting into the playoffs for 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 10 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: This is fantastic. So basically Beane is getting rid of the Bills analytics department because it really sounds they were weren’t offering much to the football side of things. I remember back in 2013 when the Bills canned Chan Gailey. Russ Brandon called a press conference on New Years Day to announce he was given the title of President - essentially taking the reigns from Ralph officially. He played to the fan base by talking about how it was a era and that the “new” Bills were going to be analytics driven. He said the brand was tarnished and announced his plans to start the analytics department for football operations. At the time this was the hot trend in the NFL, so fans were pumped. Russ then announced the hiring of the director, Michael Lyons, who I believe worked at Kodak. But then he hired Doug Marrone, who while a competent coach, was not really one to use data to make decisions on the field. He made this abundantly clear at his press conferences. Of course the next coaching hire, Rex Ryan, also was not an analytics guys either It made many wonder “what the hell are the analytic guys doing, if they aren’t that involved with coaches.” Then a journalist asked Russ and he basically said they were involved with providing analytics for ticket sales on the business side of things. This was the opposite of what Russ spoke of on New Year’s Day. I remember being very annoyed, because again, it was another interesting idea that the organization botched....yet again. Im not blaming Russ because who knows what happened, but man, another idea that didn’t nearly live up to its hype. So I am all in favor of Beane building a new analytics department. There was no reason for the department to be housed until football operations if they had little impact on the on field product. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/25/bills-axe-analytics-staff/ Mike Schopp got fired ! What ?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringMetheHeadofLeonLett Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I'm more of a gut guy when it comes to football. Nix was a good gut guy surrounded by a confused owner who made him work with the modern, stupid, analytics children. Shoot, he was even forced to hire Whaley. I feel for the guy- he got his GM shot, only to get his vision trampled upon by pointless, stupid, people influencing a senile, cheap, owner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Day 10 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 the existence of russ brandon in his various roles was a major factor in the existence of the drought. and as far as marketing whiz? i dont believe he invented cheap tickets and lawless tailgating. also, watch the mass exodus of sabres sth this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 (edited) I'm sorry if I missed someone mentioning it early, but what about the 800 lb gorilla in the room? Is the systems analyst who was fired Dunkirk Don's source? Edited January 26, 2018 by dollars 2 donuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Call_Of_Ktulu Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 14 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: This is fantastic. So basically Beane is getting rid of the Bills analytics department because it really sounds they were weren’t offering much to the football side of things. I remember back in 2013 when the Bills canned Chan Gailey. Russ Brandon called a press conference on New Years Day to announce he was given the title of President - essentially taking the reigns from Ralph officially. He played to the fan base by talking about how it was a era and that the “new” Bills were going to be analytics driven. He said the brand was tarnished and announced his plans to start the analytics department for football operations. At the time this was the hot trend in the NFL, so fans were pumped. Russ then announced the hiring of the director, Michael Lyons, who I believe worked at Kodak. But then he hired Doug Marrone, who while a competent coach, was not really one to use data to make decisions on the field. He made this abundantly clear at his press conferences. Of course the next coaching hire, Rex Ryan, also was not an analytics guys either It made many wonder “what the hell are the analytic guys doing, if they aren’t that involved with coaches.” Then a journalist asked Russ and he basically said they were involved with providing analytics for ticket sales on the business side of things. This was the opposite of what Russ spoke of on New Year’s Day. I remember being very annoyed, because again, it was another interesting idea that the organization botched....yet again. Im not blaming Russ because who knows what happened, but man, another idea that didn’t nearly live up to its hype. So I am all in favor of Beane building a new analytics department. There was no reason for the department to be housed until football operations if they had little impact on the on field product. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/25/bills-axe-analytics-staff/ Like I said before I don't blame Doug Marrone one bit for using that out in his contract. Having to work with Brandon and Whaley would be hellacious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ricojes Posted January 26, 2018 Author Share Posted January 26, 2018 (edited) article from the summer... http://billswire.usatoday.com/2017/08/17/bills-seemingly-embracing-analytics-with-moneyball-approach-how-does-it-work-in-nfl/ Edited January 26, 2018 by ricojes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffalostu2 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 15 hours ago, White Linen said: I don't think Bills fans buy tickets because they're stupid and easily duped. We're as smart of a fan base as any. We used to be. Now we are looked at as table breaking idiots who have never won before and don't know how Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elroy16 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I agree that analytics works better with baseball, but there's no question there's room for it in football. Follow this guy on twitter, @SharpFootball or go to his website. http://SharpFootballAnalysis.com He collects a ton of data and breaks down tendencies, effective rates, and a ton of other stuff. Following him really showed how terrible Haley was in Pittsburgh and how terrible Hackett was in the second half of the NE game. I'm sure there are people who can pick up on this stuff without needing a site to break it down, but games run together in my head, so sites like this are great for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Thank you for your service! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadLandsMeanie Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 (edited) I think analytics may have some, but limited use in play calling. Probably very limited. I think that because there are questions that I think it is hard or impossible for analytics to account for. What are the matchups? Are their starters playing or are they on the 3rd man up at a postion? What about my players? What did we see on film? What injuries are their players coping with? What injuries are our plays dealing with? Is it raining? Is it snowing? Which way is the wind blowing? Is it blowing hard? Are we home or away? Is the crowd noise a factor? Are we on turf or grass? How is the footing? Where is the sun in the sky? What are my players telling me about what they think will work? And probably a hundred more things I just don't know enough to consider. So yeah I think analytics has use but I am not a believer in it for play calling, unless something is just so obvious it will happen in most cases no matter what. And if it is that obvious, we shouldn't need analytics to tell us that. Edited January 30, 2018 by BadLandsMeanie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 (edited) This is a topic that I feel strongly about. Analytics plays a massive role in sports on the field and on the business side. The concept is virtually the same but that data analyzed is completely different. At a 10,000 foot view you are gathering tons and tons of data and evaluating the conclusions. I built a predictive model in the NBA on the likelihood of a client to renew based on their behaviors (lamp). We used about 60 different data points and scored it based on where those stood. It took a couple of seasons to get it right but it was accurate to within a couple of percentage points. A bunch of other teams followed suit (with different data points of course). It allowed us to focus our efforts on the clients we deemed most at risk and managed to bump our renewal percentage by 7 points. When you are talking about $65M, 7% is a substantial amount. It works the same same way on the field. Take as much information as you can and find trends. Try to maximize the successes while minimizing the things that didn’t work. The people embracing it will continue to flourish (see Epstein, Theo) and those that push back will get left behind. There is too much information available now to ignore. That’s why you are seeing Ivy League grads and “numbers people” all over sports. There is an old expression, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” Traditional scouting will never be replaced but if it is a pendulum between “gut feeling” and “analytics” it will continue to swing in the analytics direction. Facts > Feelings Edited January 30, 2018 by Kirby Jackson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kota Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 On 1/24/2018 at 2:14 PM, eball said: Jesus Christ, just hire me. I'll be glad to tell them when to challenge a call, when to go for it on 4th down, when to call time out, and when to break their tendencies. It's much more than that. YOu want to see how many times a QB throws a certain route, what the defenses were for those routes, etc... Can you do all that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry Jabber Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 On 1/24/2018 at 4:40 PM, ricojes said: http://buffalonews.com/2018/01/24/bills-subtract-analytics-staff/ What's the opposite of robust? A long-running joke about the Buffalo Bills has been about their much-heralded "robust football analytics operation," a phrase used by Russ Brandon in 2013 to indicate grand plans to bring a progressive and aggressive approach to football. Five years later, the Bills have blown it up. Russ was all talk. I remember that press conference when he said the Bills brand has been tarnished and he would leave no stone unturned to make the Bills a better team. What a joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaviorPeterman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 5:28 PM, blacklabel said: He's a huge reason why the team set season ticket sales records and still managed to sell out most games during the drought. He's a wiz of a businessman but shoulda never been allowed near football ops. A couple of things: 1) Selling Football in the city of Buffalo is like selling liquor to an alcoholic. In other words it's not a hard job and many lesser marketing types would have had the same success here the last 17 years. 2) Despite what the fans and media are told, Russ Brandon still has his fingers all over this franchise (and the Sabres now too). I know this from a trusted source and it's not earth shattering anyway considering the Wilson's essentially gave him a share of the franchise and made him a 'managing partner' before the team was sold. And it's very possible the Pegulas bought the team with some sort of similar arrangement made because they aren't that bright when it comes to owning pro sports franchises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevewin Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: I built a predictive model in the NBA on the likelihood of a client to renew based on their behaviors (lamp). Did you do this while attending high level business meetings? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, stevewin said: Did you do this while attending high level business meetings? Ha ha, I was going to put that in that paragraph!! Ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillnutinHouston Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 On January 26, 2018 at 7:55 AM, dollars 2 donuts said: Is the systems analyst who was fired Dunkirk Don's source? Wow, I didn't realize there are still people left who think DD even HAD a source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 41 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: This is a topic that I feel strongly about. Analytics plays a massive role in sports on the field and on the business side. The concept is virtually the same but that data analyzed is completely different. At a 10,000 foot view you are gathering tons and tons of data and evaluating the conclusions. I built a predictive model in the NBA on the likelihood of a client to renew based on their behaviors (lamp). We used about 60 different data points and scored it based on where those stood. It took a couple of seasons to get it right but it was accurate to within a couple of percentage points. A bunch of other teams followed suit (with different data points of course). It allowed us to focus our efforts on the clients we deemed most at risk and managed to bump our renewal percentage by 7 points. When you are talking about $65M, 7% is a substantial amount. It works the same same way on the field. Take as much information as you can and find trends. Try to maximize the successes while minimizing the things that didn’t work. The people embracing it will continue to flourish (see Epstein, Theo) and those that push back will get left behind. There is too much information available now to ignore. That’s why you are seeing Ivy League grads and “numbers people” all over sports. There is an old expression, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” Traditional scouting will never be replaced but if it is a pendulum between “gut feeling” and “analytics” it will continue to swing in the analytics direction. Facts > Feelings I think back in 2015 there was a stat that we averaged 2 full more YPC when we ran to the left than when we ran to the right. If I'm an offensive playcaller that stat is gonna mean a lot to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 29 minutes ago, BillnutinHouston said: Wow, I didn't realize there are still people left who think DD even HAD a source. Yeah, Bill, my humor sometimes is hit or miss. I should do a better job telegraphing it. ...or a rim shot gif afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 12 minutes ago, jmc12290 said: I think back in 2015 there was a stat that we averaged 2 full more YPC when we ran to the left than when we ran to the right. If I'm an offensive playcaller that stat is gonna mean a lot to me. That’s a good example. You can take that and drill down even further. What was it out of the different personnel groupings? What about shotgun as opposed to under center? Etc, etc, etc... The objective is to figure out what works and how do you do more of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillnutinHouston Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 hour ago, dollars 2 donuts said: Yeah, Bill, my humor sometimes is hit or miss. I should do a better job telegraphing it. ...or a rim shot gif afterwards. Nah, I think it was a problem on my end - my sarcasm meter's on the fritz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xwnyer Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 hours ago, BillnutinHouston said: Wow, I didn't realize there are still people left who think DD even HAD a source. he did and still does its the voices in his head. Remember the stadium news was to break and he was getting richer the he already is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KollegeStudnet Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I remember/forgot we had an analytics team. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 In terms of identifying players, getting PHD's (poor, hungry, driven) might outweigh known statistics and measurements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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