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Kiper Mock Draft: Josh Allen #1


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27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

If Josh Allen is the 1st pick in the NFL draft then I honestly will have to question what NFL teams are watching. 

 

I don't mean this in an arrogant way I am very much an amateur but I would love the opportunity to sit in a room for an afternoon with an NFL scout who has a 1st round grade on Josh Allen and go throw by throw and have him tell me what he is seeing because I am obviously not seeing it. I have been doing it 5 years and these people all their lives so they are more qualified than me but I just can't comprehend it. 

Mel Kiper Jr. asked about Josh Allen's completion percentage: "Stats are for losers in my opinion. The guy won.":blink:

 

I'm with you brother! You have to take on faith alot of so-called potential and the ability to mold this guy/ change this guy. I mean he was 7th in the MWC in passer efficiency.

 

Even if you believe he has tremendous potential (he can really fire the ball-no doubt), you still wouldn't use the number 1 overall pick on him.

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8 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

What happens when the Bills sign EJ Gaines to a contract and pick up one of the premiere DTs in free agency?

 

That's exactly what I predict will happen.

I agree. That’s why mock drafts are a moot point until at least after the first couple of weeks of FA.

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10 hours ago, xRUSHx said:

Wow Cleveland expected to bust again at QB while Buffalo expected to not even try for one. SMH, groundhogs day.

Well when it happens so much I guess it is why the so called experts put it in writing for all to see. Allen is talked about by many to bust hard in the NFL from what I have read so being picked first by Cleveland makes it oh so right I guess.

Sadly I can see this happening.

Might as well not watch the Bills next year after this mock draft 3 months before the draft.  

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Josh Allen's stat sheet is ugly but I really wouldn't put too much stock in that. His physical traits for playing the position are elite. But of course there is a problem. The problem is that he is an impulsive player who will overreact to the chaos around him rather than calmly process information. He is extremely fidgety in the pocket and often shows an alarming lack of poise. The result is that he is impatient, will often not make the right read, will make poor decisions, will not work the pocket well, will bail from it way too early. And when all of that happens his mechanics go right out the window. 

In other words the problem is not the physical skill set. It is genuinely elite. As with so many QBs and QB prospects however it's the cognitive aspect of playing the position that is lacking. The question for anyone looking to draft him is whether he can calm down, get his feet to be less happy, stand quietly in the pocket as he goes through his progressions, make the right reads so that the right decisions can follow. 

Right now he's most developed as a long ball thrower. Give him a clean pocket and a little time and he well show you excellent mechanics. With those good mechanics you also get accuracy. When that happens you think you are looking at the second coming of John Elway and actually you really are. There is no other arm like his in this draft.

But buyer beware. There is something coming between him and greatness. It's called pressure. He just can't handle it. At least not now. When he gets pressure he is Tyrod at his worst. Sure he may impress you with his speed and strength (in Tyrods case less pure strength and more moves) that can yield positive yardage, but Bills fans should be wise to that not being enuf, not nearly enuf. That's not being an NFL QB. 

Tyrod was never able to learn those things (if indeed they can be learned). I hope for his sake that Allen can. If he does he will be really, really good. The experts will have to form a view by late April. 

Believe it or don't, but I think Lamar Jackson can do those things. That's why he's my #1 prospect.

Edited by starrymessenger
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I don't get all the Rosen love i think he's to frail to play the position in the NFL. I see mutiple broken bones in his future and no 2nd contract because he will just quit. He throws a pretty pass but that doesn't alone project to elite QB play in the NFL. I also don't like his attitude and not because he speaks his mind. Its his mannerisms that concern me. He just seems like a Cutler/ George type i don't want nothing to do with him. 

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13 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Stafford was a 57% passer at Georgia and his draft profile included weaknesses like 'fundamentally lazy' and 'sloppy footwork'. 

 

 

Well, yeah, but you're really slanting things your way. Sure Stafford was a 57% passer - career - but he improved every year and his senior year he was a 61% passer while holding a superb YPA of 9.0. His 57% had a lot more to do with his 51% freshman year when he had almost a 1:2 TD:INT ratio. Awful. But by his last year he was much much better.

 

Had a few positives too, though.

 

"STRENGTHS

 Positives: Perhaps a bit shorter than preferred, but has excellent bulk and strength for the position. ... Durable performer who never missed a college game due to injury, despite a leaky offensive line. ... Efficient footwork and depth on his drop from center. ... Quick to scan the field and go through his progressions. ... Elite arm strength. ... Can make all the throws and shows power and toughness getting the ball deep even when defenders are closing and making contact. ... Consistent with excellent accuracy to all levels of the field. ... Consistent placing the deep out on the far shoulder of his receiver, away from the defender. ... Has good deep accuracy and trajectory. ... Lofts the ball high enough to allow his receiver to run under it. ... Aggressive, but has developed into a smarter passer over his career and will take what the defense gives him by dropping to his second and third options. ... Learning to look off the safety. ... Underrated core strength. ... Keeps his eyes downfield and will step up in the pocket and is willing to take a hit to complete the pass. ... Surprisingly nimble in the pocket and can avoid the rush. ... Underrated straight-line speed and will take what the defense gives him. ... Takes his own success and that of the team very seriously. ... Extremely competitive. ... Team captain. ... Undefeated in bowl games. Negatives: Can get fundamentally lazy... ... Though he has an efficient overall release, should be able to speed it up for underneath screens passes to take better advantage of the surprise to the defense. ... Sloppy footwork. ... Will get lazy and throw off his back foot, which could lead to turnovers in the NFL... ... Willing to throw into tight spots, though more often than not he places the ball where it needs to be... ... Not great accuracy on crossing routes. ... Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch."

Edited by Thurman#1
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.."Ryan Leaf had a hilariously perfect response to Mel Kiper Jr.’s first mock draft, which had Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen going No. 1 overall to the Cleveland Browns. "....

 

Ryan D LeafVerified account @RyanDLeaf

 
 
Replying to @BarrettSallee

Then again he picked me ahead of Peyton too, just sayin!!

1:41 PM - 18 Jan 2018 from Los Angeles, CA
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3 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I don't get all the Rosen love i think he's to frail to play the position in the NFL. I see mutiple broken bones in his future and no 2nd contract because he will just quit. He throws a pretty pass but that doesn't alone project to elite QB play in the NFL. I also don't like his attitude and not because he speaks his mind. Its his mannerisms that concern me. He just seems like a Cutler/ George type i don't want nothing to do with him. 

 

 

I think Rosen is going to work out great. Unfortunately I don't see him falling even out of the top two.

 

If you're worrying about his attitude, listen to this about him. Listen to the stuff about his confrontation with Dilfer. Rosen has matured and is going to be a very very good player, IMHO.

 

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2018/01/18/fantasy-lab-podcast-matt-waldman-on-the-2018-qb-class/#respond

 

It's around 9:50 and lasts around five minutes.

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22 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

If Courtland Sutton is there at 21, you sprint up to the podium. And it's too bad he has Vita Vea going 19, he would be a nice fit for this defense.

I agree ... but  ... I love Vita Vea and would like to see him in Bills colors ... I know most of this thread is about QB this QB that ... I don't believe they will take a QB with these picks and concur with others .. they may trade one of the two picks to gather more draft capital.

18 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

This article is click-bait. He throws out a non-consensus pick now to generate interest in his position and will change his mind and have Rosen in there at #1 before the draft rolls around. 

Contrary to many on this board ... I'm a Kiper fan .. not because he's remotely accurate ... let's be clear . .he is NOT .. .the Jimmy Claussen commentary stated earlier reinforces this .. but let's be clear ... look at 1st round bust historically ... many NFL GM's included those employed at 1 Bills Drive ... have missed on many picks as well  .. but bottom line he's in the sports entertainment business ... this guy carved out a niche and has been doing it for 30 years now ... got to give credit where credit is due ... he hypes up the draft in January .. has us talking about it ... prolongs the NFL discussion in the offseason ... and for nothing else .. this clip alone is entertaining regarding him and the Colts from 1994.

 

I'll watch Kiper and McShay talk football picks any time

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/indianapolis-colts/0ap2000000345422/Caught-in-the-Draft-Kiper-calls-out-the-Colts

 

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22 hours ago, Bray Wyatt said:

if baker mayfield makes it anywhere near number 10 we should trade up

I’m not an expert on evaluating college QB’s , 

but i really believe Baker Mayfield will be the best QB of this year’s draft , and I think we should do what ever it takes to get him , but if we can’t ( I Pray to God ? )  that he does NOT go  to the jests , 

 

 

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8 hours ago, starrymessenger said:

Josh Allen's stat sheet is ugly but I really wouldn't put too much stock in that. His physical traits for playing the position are elite. But of course there is a problem. The problem is that he is an impulsive player who will overreact to the chaos around him rather than calmly process information. He is extremely fidgety in the pocket and often shows an alarming lack of poise. The result is that he is impatient, will often not make the right read, will make poor decisions, will not work the pocket well, will bail from it way too early. And when all of that happens his mechanics go right out the window. 

In other words the problem is not the physical skill set. It is genuinely elite. As with so many QBs and QB prospects however it's the cognitive aspect of playing the position that is lacking. The question for anyone looking to draft him is whether he can calm down, get his feet to be less happy, stand quietly in the pocket as he goes through his progressions, make the right reads so that the right decisions can follow. 

Right now he's most developed as a long ball thrower. Give him a clean pocket and a little time and he well show you excellent mechanics. With those good mechanics you also get accuracy. When that happens you think you are looking at the second coming of John Elway and actually you really are. There is no other arm like his in this draft.

But buyer beware. There is something coming between him and greatness. It's called pressure. He just can't handle it. At least not now. When he gets pressure he is Tyrod at his worst. Sure he may impress you with his speed and strength (in Tyrods case less pure strength and more moves) that can yield positive yardage, but Bills fans should be wise to that not being enuf, not nearly enuf. That's not being an NFL QB. 

Tyrod was never able to learn those things (if indeed they can be learned). I hope for his sake that Allen can. If he does he will be really, really good. The experts will have to form a view by late April. 

Believe it or don't, but I think Lamar Jackson can do those things. That's why he's my #1 prospect.

 

That's consistent with what Matt Waldman had to say in the interview someone linked here the other day.  He said if you told him that one QB prospect was being looked at as a potential WR because of inconsistency in the pocket, he would think it was Allen not Jackson.  He said Jackson is a much, much better pocket QB than Allen.

 

Jackson is really interesting.  He is a better thrower than he gets credit for around here.  Someone will be interested in him at 21/22.  The Bills are in a prime spot for someone to trade up from the second round to draft a QB...

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8 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

Didn't he have Jake Locker as the first pick one time?

 

Everything I've seen and read Allen's inaccurate. 56% IN COLLEGE :w00t: 

 

He looks good in shorts though I guess.

 

Heads will explode on TBD if we pick a CB first.

 

LOLOL!! YEP.

 

2 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

.."Ryan Leaf had a hilariously perfect response to Mel Kiper Jr.’s first mock draft, which had Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen going No. 1 overall to the Cleveland Browns. "....

 

Ryan D LeafVerified account @RyanDLeaf

 
 
Replying to @BarrettSallee

Then again he picked me ahead of Peyton too, just sayin!!

1:41 PM - 18 Jan 2018 from Los Angeles, CA

 

????

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4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Well, yeah, but you're really slanting things your way. Sure Stafford was a 57% passer - career - but he improved every year and his senior year he was a 61% passer while holding a superb YPA of 9.0. His 57% had a lot more to do with his 51% freshman year when he had almost a 1:2 TD:INT ratio. Awful. But by his last year he was much much better.

 

Had a few positives too, though.

 

"STRENGTHS

 Positives: Perhaps a bit shorter than preferred, but has excellent bulk and strength for the position. ... Durable performer who never missed a college game due to injury, despite a leaky offensive line. ... Efficient footwork and depth on his drop from center. ... Quick to scan the field and go through his progressions. ... Elite arm strength. ... Can make all the throws and shows power and toughness getting the ball deep even when defenders are closing and making contact. ... Consistent with excellent accuracy to all levels of the field. ... Consistent placing the deep out on the far shoulder of his receiver, away from the defender. ... Has good deep accuracy and trajectory. ... Lofts the ball high enough to allow his receiver to run under it. ... Aggressive, but has developed into a smarter passer over his career and will take what the defense gives him by dropping to his second and third options. ... Learning to look off the safety. ... Underrated core strength. ... Keeps his eyes downfield and will step up in the pocket and is willing to take a hit to complete the pass. ... Surprisingly nimble in the pocket and can avoid the rush. ... Underrated straight-line speed and will take what the defense gives him. ... Takes his own success and that of the team very seriously. ... Extremely competitive. ... Team captain. ... Undefeated in bowl games. Negatives: Can get fundamentally lazy... ... Though he has an efficient overall release, should be able to speed it up for underneath screens passes to take better advantage of the surprise to the defense. ... Sloppy footwork. ... Will get lazy and throw off his back foot, which could lead to turnovers in the NFL... ... Willing to throw into tight spots, though more often than not he places the ball where it needs to be... ... Not great accuracy on crossing routes. ... Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch."

The issue we were discussing was whether a QB with low college completion % and bad ‘fundamentals’ could succeed in the pros, not whether Stafford improved throughout his college career. 

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Not real familiar with New Arena but this is a pretty interesting mock draft. I figured I'd put it here rather than start a new thread.

 

http://newarena.com/nfl/2018-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-who-will-your-favorite-team-select/?amxt=fbdt_avnt2

 

Here's what they have for the Bills:

Christian Kirk WR Texas A&M

As we saw in the playoff loss to the Jaguars, Buffalo is in desperate need of some skill within its receiver corps. Kelvin Benjamin’s conditioning is a huge question mark going forward. Apologies to Deonte Thompson, but he’s not anything more than a third receiver (at best).

Kirk would offer Buffalo a true game-breaker. He can line up at any spot – whether it’s in the slot, or on the perimeter. Having elite ball skills and sublime quickness, Kirk is supremely slippery with the ball in his hands. His value is increased even further with terrific skill in the return game. Buffalo would do very well to land him at this point in the draft. Should the Bills move on from Tyrod Taylor, Mason Rudolph could get a look here.

and:

Christian Wilkins DT Clemson

Kyle Williams has long been the heartbeat of the Bills’ franchise. His entire 11-year career has been played in Buffalo, and the 5-time Pro Bowler has been more than impactful both on and off the field. However, at 34 years of age, it may be time for Buffalo to draft his eventual replacement. Enter Wilkins – a versatile defender with an intriguing skill-set.

The 6’4” 300-pounder can virtually play anywhere along the defensive front. Though a nice athlete, Wilkins also plays with a low center of gravity. This enables him to be solid against the run. With the big game experience he’s collected at Clemson, expect Wilkins to make an impact early in the NFL.

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Like him or hate him I understand his thinking.  Normally they set it up for McShay to just go right at him when they are contradicting each other.  The truth is both feel Allen has the highest potential with the most natural tools than any Qb.  Darnold and Rosen both have their flaws so it is not obscene for Cleveland to go with the northern Qb with the thickest frame and strongest arm.  This also would be what Buffalo needs to get Rosen or Darnold.

Edited by Mat68
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The decision makers can change but given recent history and as a franchise relative to its fanbase I would not be at all surprised if the Browns are reluctant  to pick a QB first overall who is patently a boom or bust prospect. I would speculate that they are risk averse and more likely to go with perhaps a player with a slightly lower ceiling but less risky. Rosen is the closest to a sure thing but somehow I see him more in NY as a Giant than suiting up as a Brown. Rosen at #1 and Barkely at #4 looks pretty darn good to me. 

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10 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I don't get all the Rosen love i think he's to frail to play the position in the NFL. I see mutiple broken bones in his future and no 2nd contract because he will just quit. He throws a pretty pass but that doesn't alone project to elite QB play in the NFL. I also don't like his attitude and not because he speaks his mind. Its his mannerisms that concern me. He just seems like a Cutler/ George type i don't want nothing to do with him. 

Re: Rosen, it's refreshing to see a poster see the same things I see. He'd rather play tennis than football.  He's fragile and injury prone. And Mora had to coddle and protect JR from media concerns. Comparing him to Cutler is more accurate than you'll ever know. I'll pass. 

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On 1/18/2018 at 8:42 AM, Dalton said:

If this happens then you call Cleveland quick to make a deal.

 

I have a hard time with Allen's accuracy and why does it improve in the NFL.  I know coaching is the answer but tough to change.

 

What would you be willing to give up in a deal for that 4th pick? I think the Browns are going to want both picks 21 and 22, The Bills 2nd round pick this year, and the Bills 1st next year. Ideally, I would be more comfortable giving up the Rams 2nd rounder and a 2nd rounder next year for such a deal (On top of the 2 firsts of course.) But QB's you do need to pay that premium for. Although that would compromise the rest of the roster (since you bankrupt this draft and hurt next years draft) but the one position you do that for is QB.

 

That would be an insane haul of picks for the Browns if they got those Bills picks. They would have picks 1, 21, 22, 33, 35, 53, 63, and 65 on top of having extra picks in the 4th and 5th rounds from Carolina and KC. Plus they would add a 1st rounder in next years draft setting up another draft. 

Edited by billsfan89
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3 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Re: Rosen, it's refreshing to see a poster see the same things I see. He'd rather play tennis than football.  He's fragile and injury prone. And Mora had to coddle and protect JR from media concerns. Comparing him to Cutler is more accurate than you'll ever know. I'll pass. 

Good Jay cutler is better than any Qb play Buffalo has had since Kelly.  Rosen is the best passer of the football in the draft.  He isnt big but as a pro athlete he has time and room to add muscle to his frame.  His frame is a bit of a concern.  The concussion thing is even larger a concern to me.  If he passes the medicals and background checks and is willing to add some muscle i would go all in on Rosen.  

8 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

What would you be willing to give up in a deal for that 4th pick? I think the Browns are going to want both picks 21 and 22, The Bills 2nd round pick this year, and the Bills 1st next year. Ideally, I would be more comfortable giving up the Rams 2nd rounder and a 2nd rounder next year for such a deal (On top of the 2 firsts of course.) But QB's you do need to pay that premium for. Although that would compromise the rest of the roster (since you bankrupt this draft and hurt next years draft) but the one position you do that for is QB.

 

That would be an insane haul of picks for the Browns if they got those Bills picks. They would have picks 1, 21, 22, 33, 35, 53, 63, and 65 on top of having extra picks in the 4th and 5th rounds from Carolina and KC. Plus they would add a 1st rounder in next years draft setting up another draft. 

Yes i would to that for any of the three QBs Rosen, Allen, o Darnold.  Imo they are a step above Jackson and Mayfield.  Those 2 would be my plan c.  Unable to get Cousins or Luck i would look to move to in to the top 3 or 4.  unable to secure a trade i would look to move up a spot or 2 to land Mayfield or Jackson.  I am not that high on Mayfield but like the potential Jackson would have.  

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1 hour ago, starrymessenger said:

The decision makers can change but given recent history and as a franchise relative to its fanbase I would not be at all surprised if the Browns are reluctant  to pick a QB first overall who is patently a boom or bust prospect. I would speculate that they are risk averse and more likely to go with perhaps a player with a slightly lower ceiling but less risky. Rosen is the closest to a sure thing but somehow I see him more in NY as a Giant than suiting up as a Brown. Rosen at #1 and Barkely at #4 looks pretty darn good to me. 

 

I don't know.  Clowns use the strategy of draft a QB high every year until you hit.  Obviously Kizer is a bust.  Time to take another :)

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12 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Good Jay cutler is better than any Qb play Buffalo has had since Kelly.  Rosen is the best passer of the football in the draft.  He isnt big but as a pro athlete he has time and room to add muscle to his frame.  His frame is a bit of a concern.  The concussion thing is even larger a concern to me.  If he passes the medicals and background checks and is willing to add some muscle i would go all in on Rosen.  

Yes i would to that for any of the three QBs Rosen, Allen, o Darnold.  Imo they are a step above Jackson and Mayfield.  Those 2 would be my plan c.  Unable to get Cousins or Luck i would look to move to in to the top 3 or 4.  unable to secure a trade i would look to move up a spot or 2 to land Mayfield or Jackson.  I am not that high on Mayfield but like the potential Jackson would have.  

10

 

I think that's honestly what the Bills plan to do. I think they plan on trading up with Cleveland at pick 4 for the other QB left on the board. I think the Browns will demand both firsts, plus a second, plus next years first. That would be an insane haul for them (Giving them 3 1st round picks and 4 second round picks while still having an extra 1st in 2019 in their back pockets.) But should the Bills pay such an insane price? 

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22 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

What would you be willing to give up in a deal for that 4th pick? I think the Browns are going to want both picks 21 and 22, The Bills 2nd round pick this year, and the Bills 1st next year. Ideally, I would be more comfortable giving up the Rams 2nd rounder and a 2nd rounder next year for such a deal (On top of the 2 firsts of course.) But QB's you do need to pay that premium for. Although that would compromise the rest of the roster (since you bankrupt this draft and hurt next years draft) but the one position you do that for is QB.

 

That would be an insane haul of picks for the Browns if they got those Bills picks. They would have picks 1, 21, 22, 33, 35, 53, 63, and 65 on top of having extra picks in the 4th and 5th rounds from Carolina and KC. Plus they would add a 1st rounder in next years draft setting up another draft. 

 

If Baker Mayfield is available with the 4th pick I'd give up the compensation you described (three firsts and a second). 

 

I think Mayfield is going to be a really good NFL QB. I think he's got all the tools and the mental makeup to be a good franchise QB. 

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14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Good twitter thread on Josh Allen here:

 

I'm not seeing it with him at all. If you mixed EJ Manuel with Tyrod Taylor this is what you would get.

 

Allen is a really bad QB. 

 

I don't care how far he can throw the ball or how fast he is, his college game film is worse than EJ's. 

 

He's a great athlete, but his mechanics are horrendous, his accuracy is scattershot and he has few natural instincts for the game. 


I don't see anything that translates to future NFL Franchise QB. 

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