Kiper Mock Draft: Josh Allen #1

[The Now Moment]

How many fans here have actually watched more than one or two games or a handful of highlights from Allen?  You look at the stats and go, wow he sucks.  Jumping to conclusions based on stats is not a great way to scout a player or form an opinion of him.  The kid has talent

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

Rosen has the best arm in the draft, in my opinion. I still don't think he has the personality of a franchise QB. I expect him to be the next Jay Cutler. 

 

I like Mayfield and Rudolph for the Bills. Both improved their accuracy a ton in their senior season. 

 

I like Falk as a mid round back up QB prospect, he reminds me of Mike Glennon. My favorite sleeper prospect is Logan Woodside, I would love to get him late in the draft or as an undrafted free agent. 

 

Thanks for the gouge.  How do you rate Darnold, and what do you see from Rudolph especially as far as reads?

 

[KDIGGZ]

Rosen is the only QB that is ready to be taking snaps at this level, but even he would benefit from a year of sitting behind Eli Manning.

 

Also, as mentioned, people will be going nuts trying to trade up to 3 if "their" guy isn't one of the first 2 picks.  there's no way any of those guys just magically fall into Denver's lap at 5.  Jets and Cardinals are desperate and will do whatever it takes to get ahead of them so Denver could end up with the 4th QB in the top 5 picks!

[dollars 2 donuts]

1 minute ago, Buffalo30 said:

How many fans here have actually watched more than one or two games or a handful of highlights from Allen?  You look at the stats and go, wow he sucks.  Jumping to conclusions based on stats is not a great way to scout a player or form an opinion of him.  The kid has talent

 

I actually did watch him, wasn't too impressed with what I saw in the games, but I would still very much consider him and maybe even moving up to get him, depending upon where.

[jrober38]

I don't understand the Josh Allen hype at all.

Guys with scouting reports like his, and his level of college production never work out at the NFL level. 

[Bangarang]

lol Kiper...so bad

[The Now Moment]

1 minute ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

I actually did watch him, wasn't too impressed with what I saw in the games, but I would still very much consider him and maybe even moving up to get him, depending upon where.

Fair enough, I've watched a lot of his games this year and last year.  He has the most potential in this class in my opinion.  He would benefit to go into the right situation behind a veteran QB to learn.  He's a very competitive guy who was the clear leader of his team.  Had a great bowl game. Took Wyoming to their first bowl games in years.  I hope he goes to a good situation, he could be the next big arm in the NFL

[AmishRifle]

I really don’t think we’ll move up either.  I think there’s a whole lot more faith in Peterman than people think.

[aristocrat]

allen reminds me of flacco. 

[Bangarang]

18 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

How many fans here have actually watched more than one or two games or a handful of highlights from Allen?  You look at the stats and go, wow he sucks.  Jumping to conclusions based on stats is not a great way to scout a player or form an opinion of him.  The kid has talent

 

Watched his games. Wasn’t impressed. Some team will fall in love with his arm and measureables and draft him high. That same team will be looking for another QB in 3 years. 

Edited January 18, 2018 by Bangarang

[RiotAct]

Cornerback with our 1st pick.

 

Hahahahahahahahaha

[KDIGGZ]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thanks for the gouge.  How do you rate Darnold, and what do you see from Rudolph especially as far as reads?

 

I'll chime in because I've watched a lot on both.  Darnold has the grit and determination that Rosen lacks.  Darnold is a blue collar type to Rosen's priviledged white collar persona.  However, I don't like Darnold's arm angle.  It results in strip sacks.  He cocks it kind of sidearm from his hip.  Every one of his games that I watched he had the ball knocked out while in the pocket.  He needs to get the ball higher.  Coaches will say they can fix that but they can't, that's just how he throws.  They might be able to tweak it slightly but he gets his power by pushing the ball from his body rather than a good follow through from the shoulder.  It is a huge issue imo.  He does have a quick release but bringing the ball down that low is no bueno.  He also gets skittish in the pocket.  I'd like to see him work in the pocket and find the open receiver but when he gets pressure he starts tap dancing and he wants to take off and run or throw it quick instead of stepping up.  I would have him as a mid 1st pick but he will surely go between 1-3 because teams are desperate.  I see him as a game manager type QB at the next level.  He's not going to put a team on his back and pass for 400 yards.  He will need a good balanced running attack to give him opportunities in the passing game.

 

Rudolph looks the part.  Big, strong, clean cut kid.  He has gaudy numbers.  We didn't see NFL type reads and throws from him in the offense he ran.  It's very much 1 read and throw quick or throw a bomb to the wide open guy that just ran by everyone.  He had very good receivers and was in a pass friendly offense.  It's hard to knock him for those things, we just need to see more from him.  Sitting out of the senior bowl will be a big blow to teams that are interested in him.  He checks all of the boxes but can he take a snap from center, have good footwork in the pocket, and plant and deliver a strike?  We could have had some answers to those questions if he played in the senior bowl.  He looks like Dan Marino at times and it gets me excited but there's a very good chance he's more like Bryce Petty and his success was more about his receivers and the offense he ran.  Maybe he can do it, maybe he can't.  We just don't know!

[starrymessenger]

Allen has elite QB traits. Value wise I think he is equivalent to Darnold, not that they are the same player (although comparable). Allen gets a lot of flak for poor footwork and throwing mechanics but right now he is most developed as a deep thrower and when you give him a clean pocket he actually displays very good fundamentals. It's in the short passing game and when forced from the pocket that his footwork and consequently his accuracy tends to go downhill. So he has things to work but with the benefit of good coaching and player development he stands a chance of making it. If he can give full expression to his physical skills while doing the other things an NFL QB must do he will become a franchise guy. 

Both he and Darnold are risky picks IMO. The safer guys are Rosen, Jackson and Mayfield. I think if you are projecting their ability to transition there are fewer questions with them than with respect to Rudolph.

Kipers draft is ridiculous. He doesn't even have Jackson going in the first (like Cowherd). There is no way that the Bills pass on him if he is there at 21. Thing is he almost certainly won't be.

Edited January 18, 2018 by starrymessenger

[Captain_Quint]

2 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

If Courtland Sutton is there at 21, you sprint up to the podium. And it's too bad he has Vita Vea going 19, he would be a nice fit for this defense.

Yeah, if Vea is there at 19, a trade up from 21 wouldn't be out of the question. I think he's a legit 1st round talent and day 1 starter.

[dollars 2 donuts]

33 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

Fair enough, I've watched a lot of his games this year and last year.  He has the most potential in this class in my opinion.  He would benefit to go into the right situation behind a veteran QB to learn.  He's a very competitive guy who was the clear leader of his team.  Had a great bowl game. Took Wyoming to their first bowl games in years.  I hope he goes to a good situation, he could be the next big arm in the NFL

 

 

I can absolutely live with and consider that he may have had an off year.  If that gives us a crack at him, then great.

 

I mean he was just given mad love before this season...his slightly off season may just plain benefit us in getting him.

[dave mcbride]

Walter Football has us going CB first too. These mocks are all premised on no trades, which is kinda what you have to do give the craziness that putting in trades introduces. They are also pre-free agency, which makes them real shots in the dark. Where Kirk Cousins ends up will drive a lot of the mocks eventually. I can't condemn Kiper for doing his job. 

13 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

Allen has elite QB traits. Value wise I think he is equivalent to Darnold, not that they are the same player (although comparable). Allen gets a lot of flak for poor footwork and throwing mechanics but right now he is most developed as a deep thrower and when you give him a clean pocket he actually displays very good fundamentals. It's in the short passing game and when forced from the pocket that his footwork and consequently his accuracy tends to go downhill. So he has things to work but with the benefit of good coaching and player development he stands a chance of making it. If he can give full expression to his physical skills while doing the other things an NFL QB must do he will become a franchise guy. 

Both he and Darnold are risky picks IMO. The safer guys are Rosen, Jackson and Mayfield. I think if you are projecting their ability to transition there are fewer questions with them than with respect to Rudolph.

Kipers draft is ridiculous. He doesn't even have Jackson going in the first (like Cowherd). There is no way that the Bills pass on him if he is there at 21. Thing is he almost certainly won't be.

I don't think Jackson is a first round pick either, but we shall see. I'm always a little suspicious of QBs who rush for 1600 yards  (two years in a row!). It makes the passing game a lot easier for them, and he wasn't even that great a passer this year despite the absolutely ridiculous rushing numbers (6.9 ypa and 18 rushing TDs). Needless to say, he won't be able to do that in the NFL. I don't see him as an ideal pro passer.

Edited January 18, 2018 by dave mcbride

[jrober38]

26 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

allen reminds me of flacco. 

 

Or EJ Manuel. 

[dave mcbride]

35 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

allen reminds me of flacco. 

If they redrafted the 2008 class now, Flacco would be a stone-cold lock at #2 overall after Ryan. He has had a good career and has been a great playoff qb over 15 games. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_NFL_Draft

Edited January 18, 2018 by dave mcbride

[aristocrat]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

If they redrafted the 2008 class now, Flacco would be a stone-cold lock at #2 overall after Ryan. He has had a good career and has been a great playoff qb over 15 games. 

 oh absolutely. 

[starrymessenger]

Josh Allen is not Flacco. He is extremely athletic and clearly has the potential to execute outside the pocket and make plays with his legs when necessary or even by design. Not a statue. The statue with the great arm in this draft is Rosen.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

Josh Allen is not Flacco. He is extremely athletic and clearly has the potential to execute outside the pocket and make plays with his legs when necessary or even by design. Not a statue. The statue with the great arm in this draft is Rosen.

 

Agreed. Aside from probably being able to throw a football 80 yards, Flacco and Allen are nothing alike. 

 

I think Allen's ceiling is as a poor man's Cam Newton. Similar physical traits, but much worse instictiveness for the game of football. My gut tells me he'll wind up being a lot more like EJ Manuel or Jake Locker (very similar physical traits, and skill as a passer) than Newton. I think he'll be an enormous bust. 

[CuddyDark]

Here they go again picking physical talent and not football players to go #1.

[starrymessenger]

6 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Agreed. Aside from probably being able to throw a football 80 yards, Flacco and Allen are nothing alike. 

 

I think Allen's ceiling is as a poor man's Cam Newton. Similar physical traits, but much worse instictiveness for the game of football. My gut tells me he'll wind up being a lot more like EJ Manuel or Jake Locker (very similar physical traits, and skill as a passer) than Newton. I think he'll be an enormous bust. 

 

Yeah, Locker is his downside. To me he is in the risky pick category, with Darnold and even Rudolph. The other guys are safer IMO.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

 

Yeah, Locker is his downside. To me he is in the risky pick category, with Darnold and even Rudolph. The other guys are safer IMO.

 

Any QB whose accuracy and mechanics are openly questioned in their scouting report is an extremely risky pick. 

 

As I've said before, guys with scouting reports that read like his does rarely ever succeed in the NFL. Most are complete busts. 

[JMF2006]

Has Mad Mel ever been right?

[Buffalo716]

I said one month ago that the Browns are seriously considering taking Allen.

 

Rosen and Darnold at the core might not be too hot to go there... Allen would be honored to be the first pick and would run to Cleveland 

[Pete]

I thought all along Josh Allen would be the Bills pick if he fell to 21.  That doesn't look like its going to happen.

[Chicken Boo]

What happens when the Bills sign EJ Gaines to a contract and pick up one of the premiere DTs in free agency?

 

That's exactly what I predict will happen.

[billspro]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thanks for the gouge.  How do you rate Darnold, and what do you see from Rudolph especially as far as reads?

 

 

Darnold is a good prospect as well. I wish he stayed in school one more year. The NFL draft is already a guessing game and the success rate of sophomore QBs is pretty low. The less experience a guy has the harder it is to project them at the next level. I like that Darnold shows up in big moments, he has good accuracy, and a big arm. He does get tricked by coverage sometimes and it leads to a high number of ints. I don't think Darnold is quite ready for the NFL yet. 

 

If Darnold fails in the NFL it will be due to a slow release and having his confidence broken in year one (which tends to happen to sophomore QBs)

If Rosen fails it will be due to him no putting in the time to be an NFL Qb

If Mayfield fails it will be due to his size not allowing him to take snaps under center, step up in the pocket, and throw over the middle. 

If Jackson fails it will because he does not have an OC that lets him use his legs as much as his arm. He does not have the accuracy of a pocket passer. 

If Allen fails it will be because he does not learn to use more touch on shorter throws and does not improve his accuracy and footwork after his first read

If Rudolph fails it will because he does not have enough mobility and has average NFL arm strength. 

[Uncle Joe]

53 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

I'll chime in because I've watched a lot on both.  Darnold has the grit and determination that Rosen lacks.  Darnold is a blue collar type to Rosen's priviledged white collar persona.  However, I don't like Darnold's arm angle.  It results in strip sacks.  He cocks it kind of sidearm from his hip.  Every one of his games that I watched he had the ball knocked out while in the pocket.  He needs to get the ball higher.  Coaches will say they can fix that but they can't, that's just how he throws.  They might be able to tweak it slightly but he gets his power by pushing the ball from his body rather than a good follow through from the shoulder.  It is a huge issue imo. 

 

Sounds a little Fitzpatrick like to me.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

Darnold is a good prospect as well. I wish he stayed in school one more year. The NFL draft is already a guessing game and the success rate of sophomore QBs is pretty low. The less experience a guy has the harder it is to project them at the next level. I like that Darnold shows up in big moments, he has good accuracy, and a big arm. He does get tricked by coverage sometimes and it leads to a high number of ints. I don't think Darnold is quite ready for the NFL yet. 

 

If Darnold fails in the NFL it will be due to a slow release and having his confidence broken in year one (which tends to happen to sophomore QBs)

If Rosen fails it will be due to him no putting in the time to be an NFL Qb

If Mayfield fails it will be due to his size not allowing him to take snaps under center, step up in the pocket, and throw over the middle. 

If Jackson fails it will because he does not have an OC that lets him use his legs as much as his arm. He does not have the accuracy of a pocket passer. 

If Allen fails it will be because he does not learn to use more touch on shorter throws and does not improve his accuracy and footwork after his first read

If Rudolph fails it will because he does not have enough mobility and has average NFL arm strength. 

 

Thanks again.  So who is the horse you bet on?

[starrymessenger]

10 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I said one month ago that the Browns are seriously considering taking Allen.

 

Rosen and Darnold at the core might not be too hot to go there... Allen would be honored to be the first pick and would run to Cleveland 

 

I think the smoke screens and fake news have started already. I would not trust anything I heard coming from the teams and their entourage this time of year.

[MrEpsYtown]

10 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I said one month ago that the Browns are seriously considering taking Allen.

 

Rosen and Darnold at the core might not be too hot to go there... Allen would be honored to be the first pick and would run to Cleveland 

I do think Allen is a great fit for Cleveland, and I could see this happening. I think he is going to jump up after the Senior Bowl and Combine. People are already saying he could be #1. I think the combine and SB can push him in front of Rosen and Darnold. 

[buffaloboyinATL]

3 hours ago, Jamie Muellers Ghost said:

I do not see the Bills taking a one year starter , transfer players in Hughes after drafting all four year starters last year.

 

Hurst is a popular choice in McD's scheme. Find me the next Fletcher Cox or Brendan Graham.

If he is anything like either of those two, I really hope we get him!

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, starrymessenger said:

 

I think the smoke screens and fake news have started already. I would not trust anything I heard coming from the teams and their entourage this time of year.

 

That is definitely true

 

it would really boggle my mind to see this kid go #1 no matter how physically gifted

[MrEpsYtown]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thanks again.  So who is the horse you bet on?

 

I'm betting on Rosen. It's okay if he's a little bit of a jerk. In fact I think he needs a no nonsense type of guy like McDermott. For Rosen its going to be if he can sit for half a season, who the starter is, and who the OC and QB coaches are. 

 

Trade for Smith, trade up for Rosen and let him sit a year. To me the position is fixed. Don't know if it happens, but makes the most sense to me. 

[PIZ]

1 hour ago, kdiggz said:

I'll chime in because I've watched a lot on both.  Darnold has the grit and determination that Rosen lacks.  Darnold is a blue collar type to Rosen's priviledged white collar persona.  However, I don't like Darnold's arm angle.  It results in strip sacks.  He cocks it kind of sidearm from his hip.  Every one of his games that I watched he had the ball knocked out while in the pocket.  He needs to get the ball higher.  Coaches will say they can fix that but they can't, that's just how he throws.  They might be able to tweak it slightly but he gets his power by pushing the ball from his body rather than a good follow through from the shoulder.  It is a huge issue imo.  He does have a quick release but bringing the ball down that low is no bueno.  He also gets skittish in the pocket.  I'd like to see him work in the pocket and find the open receiver but when he gets pressure he starts tap dancing and he wants to take off and run or throw it quick instead of stepping up.  I would have him as a mid 1st pick but he will surely go between 1-3 because teams are desperate.  I see him as a game manager type QB at the next level.  He's not going to put a team on his back and pass for 400 yards.  He will need a good balanced running attack to give him opportunities in the passing game.

 

Rudolph looks the part.  Big, strong, clean cut kid.  He has gaudy numbers.  We didn't see NFL type reads and throws from him in the offense he ran.  It's very much 1 read and throw quick or throw a bomb to the wide open guy that just ran by everyone.  He had very good receivers and was in a pass friendly offense.  It's hard to knock him for those things, we just need to see more from him.  Sitting out of the senior bowl will be a big blow to teams that are interested in him.  He checks all of the boxes but can he take a snap from center, have good footwork in the pocket, and plant and deliver a strike?  We could have had some answers to those questions if he played in the senior bowl.  He looks like Dan Marino at times and it gets me excited but there's a very good chance he's more like Bryce Petty and his success was more about his receivers and the offense he ran.  Maybe he can do it, maybe he can't.  We just don't know!

 

You write like a scout with the "we didn't see...".  Are you a scout or do you (with others?) do this for fun?  Just curious.  Thanks for the write-up.  I wanted to see a trade up for Darnold, but now you have me scared about the strips.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

1 hour ago, kdiggz said:

I'll chime in because I've watched a lot on both.  Darnold has the grit and determination that Rosen lacks.  Darnold is a blue collar type to Rosen's priviledged white collar persona.  However, I don't like Darnold's arm angle.  It results in strip sacks.  He cocks it kind of sidearm from his hip.  Every one of his games that I watched he had the ball knocked out while in the pocket.  He needs to get the ball higher.  Coaches will say they can fix that but they can't, that's just how he throws.  They might be able to tweak it slightly but he gets his power by pushing the ball from his body rather than a good follow through from the shoulder.  It is a huge issue imo.  He does have a quick release but bringing the ball down that low is no bueno.  He also gets skittish in the pocket.  I'd like to see him work in the pocket and find the open receiver but when he gets pressure he starts tap dancing and he wants to take off and run or throw it quick instead of stepping up.  I would have him as a mid 1st pick but he will surely go between 1-3 because teams are desperate.  I see him as a game manager type QB at the next level.  He's not going to put a team on his back and pass for 400 yards.  He will need a good balanced running attack to give him opportunities in the passing game.

 

Rudolph looks the part.  Big, strong, clean cut kid.  He has gaudy numbers.  We didn't see NFL type reads and throws from him in the offense he ran.  It's very much 1 read and throw quick or throw a bomb to the wide open guy that just ran by everyone.  He had very good receivers and was in a pass friendly offense.  It's hard to knock him for those things, we just need to see more from him.  Sitting out of the senior bowl will be a big blow to teams that are interested in him.  He checks all of the boxes but can he take a snap from center, have good footwork in the pocket, and plant and deliver a strike?  We could have had some answers to those questions if he played in the senior bowl.  He looks like Dan Marino at times and it gets me excited but there's a very good chance he's more like Bryce Petty and his success was more about his receivers and the offense he ran.  Maybe he can do it, maybe he can't.  We just don't know!

Danny Wuerffel had the arm angle problem, which was never fixed.

[billspro]

19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thanks again.  So who is the horse you bet on?

 

Right now Rudolph and Mayfield. 

[GoBills808]

I'm not a big scouting guy but I like to check out the top QBs coming out every year and from what I've seen of Allen it makes sense IMO. I don't think he's as polished a passer as Wentz was coming out, his body control and pocket presence aren't on the same level, but as far as pure arm talent he's off the charts. The guy has an Elway-like release and the ball just jumps out of his hand...you talk about a 'live arm' and Allen is the photo next to the definition. I could definitely see him going to Cleveland #1, the question in their minds will be whether they feel they have the structure in place to bring his development along, they're pretty young along the O line.