Kiper Mock Draft: Josh Allen #1

[Virgil]

If Baker Mayfield drops that far, I’d be upset if the Bills didn’t trade up to get him. They could keep a first, get Mayfield and still get the DT. I’d consider that a successful draft. 

 

I’d do the chiefs trade, jump to 10 by giving them our first this year and first next year.  

 

We keep the rest of our picks this year and fill a lot of holes. 

 

When we pick 32 next year, we won’t care we traded it away ??

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I'm not a big scouting guy but I like to check out the top QBs coming out every year and from what I've seen of Allen it makes sense IMO. I don't think he's as polished a passer as Wentz was coming out, his body control and pocket presence aren't on the same level, but as far as pure arm talent he's off the charts. The guy has an Elway-like release and the ball just jumps out of his hand...you talk about a 'live arm' and Allen is the photo next to the definition. I could definitely see him going to Cleveland #1, the question in their minds will be whether they feel they have the structure in place to bring his development along, they're pretty young along the O line.

 

Who was the last big arm with poor mechanics and accuracy QB who worked out in the NFL?

[MrEpsYtown]

25 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

Darnold is a good prospect as well. I wish he stayed in school one more year. The NFL draft is already a guessing game and the success rate of sophomore QBs is pretty low. The less experience a guy has the harder it is to project them at the next level. I like that Darnold shows up in big moments, he has good accuracy, and a big arm. He does get tricked by coverage sometimes and it leads to a high number of ints. I don't think Darnold is quite ready for the NFL yet. 

 

If Darnold fails in the NFL it will be due to a slow release and having his confidence broken in year one (which tends to happen to sophomore QBs)

If Rosen fails it will be due to him no putting in the time to be an NFL Qb

If Mayfield fails it will be due to his size not allowing him to take snaps under center, step up in the pocket, and throw over the middle. 

If Jackson fails it will because he does not have an OC that lets him use his legs as much as his arm. He does not have the accuracy of a pocket passer. 

If Allen fails it will be because he does not learn to use more touch on shorter throws and does not improve his accuracy and footwork after his first read

If Rudolph fails it will because he does not have enough mobility and has average NFL arm strength. 

 

I think one thing that is changeable on this list is the attitude. Rosen needs an attitude check. Everything else is good. 

 

Those other guys have pretty major flaws and therefore have a better chance to bust. Darnold has a good chance to make it if you let him sit 2 years. Mayfield will never get bigger, Jackson probably can't win from the pocket, Allen needs a lot of work (needs to sit 2-3 years), and Rudolph is slow with a so so arm as well as the footwork issues (To me he's Josh Allen without physical talent). I'm willing to take a shot of Rosen, Darnold, or even Allen round 1. The rest of those guys are a no for me.  I think Mayfield is a borderline first round pick, but Buffalo will not draft him.  

 

So to me its Rosen. Now if Rosen is a Ryan Leaf level douche then he's off the board, but if he's just a spoiled kid I'm good with it. 

[Acantha]

If Rosen or Darnold are available at Indy's pick and we don't give up whatever it takes to get them, we're just not playing at the right level.

[GoBills808]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Who was the last big arm with poor mechanics and accuracy QB who worked out in the NFL?

Hmm maybe Newton. I honestly don't think Allen has poor 'mechanics', his release looks OK to me. He doesn't have great pocket awareness and footwork a bit of a mess but if the right coach gets hold of him I think he'll be a good one.

[MrEpsYtown]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Hmm maybe Newton. I honestly don't think Allen has poor 'mechanics', his release looks OK to me. He doesn't have great pocket awareness and footwork a bit of a mess but if the right coach gets hold of him I think he'll be a good one.

I think that's a good comp. I think he can be Cam or Jake Locker. I think people need to be willing to put some time in to develop him. Cleveland should take Rosen or Darnold.  

 

Now if I'm Cleveland and I am going to pick Allen, I probably trade down and stick with Kizer. They have similar traits. Kizer is just five months older and has one year in the NFL under his belt. I was really impressed with how he was playing near the end of the season, but that's probably just me. 

Edited January 18, 2018 by MrEpsYtown

[26CornerBlitz]

 

Denver got their wish for an up close look at Mayfield. 

[ndirish1978]

This article is click-bait. He throws out a non-consensus pick now to generate interest in his position and will change his mind and have Rosen in there at #1 before the draft rolls around. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I think that's a good comp. I think he can be Cam or Jake Locker. I think people need to be willing to put some time in to develop him. Cleveland should take Rosen or Darnold.  

 

Now if I'm Cleveland and I am going to pick Allen, I probably trade down and stick with Kizer. They have similar traits. Kizer is just five months older and has one year in the NFL under his belt. I was really impressed with how he was playing near the end of the season, but that's probably just me. 

I was high on Kizer and I think he's got a future but I don't know how much patience the Browns will have especially if they really like one of the top guys this year...

[MrEpsYtown]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I was high on Kizer and I think he's got a future but I don't know how much patience the Browns will have especially if they really like one of the top guys this year...

 

Agreed and it's unfortunate because to me, they already have Josh Allen on their roster. 

[yungmack]

Kiper is just plain idiotic. 

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, yungmack said:

Kiper is just plain idiotic. 

 

Jimmy Clausen is going to come back to prove Kiper right. 

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

If we did not do the above I would get a tattoo of the Bills logo on my chest (after I shave) or on my back (after I shave), strip naked and jump off of the top floor of the old Marine Midland Building screaming "what's the frequency, Kenneth?!" all the way down, officially verifying to you all, gentlemen, that this world is most assuredly bonkers and I want no further part of it.

 

...in short, if Darnold is there after the first two picks...get him.

I wonder if that would make Sportcenter?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

11 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Jimmy Clausen is going to come back to prove Kiper right. 

 

...LMAO...."paging The Pickle........."..............

[billykay]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Even if they’ve addressed QB I think people will be outraged with CB at 21. This team has holes everywhere except the defensive backfield. They can’t squander the 21st pick of the draft there. It has to be front 7 and/or WR in that case. OL is an option as well if they love someone but think that it falls behind front 7 and WR. 

IMHO, I feel that the current Bill's brain trust will be investing in a seasoned QB. Having said that, they will then be free to attack the front seven as you say. Mc D. seems to like draft capital, so I see some  sliding down on day 2 for future picks.

If for some reason we don't sign a veteran starter at the QB position, then I think that they will entertain a move up in the 1st round. I'm betting on the 1st scenario where we have a QB signed & we devote day one to the front seven. Three out of four of the teams still alive have middle of the pack QB's. They also have four of the best D's in the league.

[MAJBobby]

Allen is going higher than alot of people think (rightfully so). 

[HappyDays]

29 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Hmm maybe Newton. I honestly don't think Allen has poor 'mechanics', his release looks OK to me. He doesn't have great pocket awareness and footwork a bit of a mess but if the right coach gets hold of him I think he'll be a good one.

 

I think it's fair to say Cam Newton has been the best of that type of QB, and he's only had one season I would consider living up to his draft pick. That was an amazing season but otherwise his career has been plagued with accuracy issues and poor decisions. And every other QB of that type is a who's who of draft busts. I think we have enough evidence that that skill set does not translate from college to the pros.

[jrober38]

38 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Who was the last big arm with poor mechanics and accuracy QB who worked out in the NFL?

 

Only Cam Newton comes to mind, and he is a much better football player than Josh Allen. 

Edited January 18, 2018 by jrober38

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think it's fair to say Cam Newton has been the best of that type of QB, and he's only had one season I would consider living up to his draft pick. That was an amazing season but otherwise his career has been plagued with accuracy issues and poor decisions. And every other QB of that type is a who's who of draft busts. I think we have enough evidence that that skill set does not translate from college to the pros.

Stafford? 

[KDIGGZ]

1 hour ago, PIZ said:

 

You write like a scout with the "we didn't see...".  Are you a scout or do you (with others?) do this for fun?  Just curious.  Thanks for the write-up.  I wanted to see a trade up for Darnold, but now you have me scared about the strips.

I'm not a scout but I've scouted for high school teams and I watch a lot of tape on QB's because I used to play the position so I at least know what to look for and I have an interest in it.  Josh Rosen checks all of the boxes on what a prototypical NFL QB looks like.  His only problem is what he has upstairs and in his heart.  Tom Brady was very "Peterman-esque" coming out of college but he had what it took to outwork everyone else and he continues to do so almost 2 decades later.  Rosen is the type of guy that is good at everything and his family is already wealthy so who knows if he has the interest or drive to be great at just football.  He might decide he is more interested in policitics or starting his own business and he would probably do really well at those too.

 

Sam Darnold wishes he was Josh Rosen because he wants it more.  He would be a McBeane guy because of his heart and he is still a very good player.  He has some things to work on but he can be a starter in the NFL.  He's not going to go head to head with Tom Brady and throw for 400 yards to keep you in the game but he can be a part of a balanced attack that will rush it down your throat and then convert on 3rd down to move the sticks.  He would have won us the Jags game but he wouldn't be much help vs the Pats.

 

Josh Allen has the type of arm strength that people tell stories about 20 yrs later.  You hear about how Elway could throw it from one endzone to the other and you are like noooo that can't be true.  If Allen ever puts it all together he could be very special.  He hasn't been able to yet and who knows if he ever will.  He's very boom or bust.  Drafting him #1 would be like putting your entire savings into bitcoins and holding on for dear life.

 

And Mayfield wishes he was half the physical athlete of any those guys because I think he would die for this game.  If he doesn't make it I don't think it will be for a lack of effort.  Too bad you can't put him into one of their bodies!  If he puts that same effort into his preparation and becomes a student of the game and stays level headed, he can be a good player.  There's just so much to overcome when you are short and can't see where you are throwing a lot of the time.  You really have to know exactly where the receiver is going to be.  I don't know if he will be able to put it all together so I would be leery of drafting him top 10.  Someone will reach though.

 

Rudolph, who knows!  He looks the part but you would have to get him under center to see if he knows what to do in a pro style offense.  He might be a mess and a long term project or he might be a natural that just needs fine tuning.  He didn't show anything in college to determine it one way or the other.  He does have a good deep ball and he is a big guy.  With proper footwork comes more accuracy underneath too so if he put it together he could be good as well.

 

Jackson is a very good athlete.  He could have a couple of good seasons but I just don't like dual threat QB's at the NFL level.  It's not a model for long term success.  He would be exciting to watch though.  He would actually be the 3rd safest pick because with him you know what you are getting.

 

If I had to pick someone to go #1 overall it would have to be Rosen but there's a chance he won't make it past his rookie deal so I wouldn't trade the farm to move up to get him.  He could be like Jake Locker and have an injury and say screw this my health is more important.  So that makes Darnold the safest pick but I think he projects as a game manager type QB who will need to be on a team with a strong running game.  So toss up between those 2 guys imo.  The other guys are more risky and if there weren't desperate teams out there I don't know if any of them would be 1st round picks.  It would be a toss up of who to take next vs Jackson or Allen.  I'd probably go Allen because if it works out I'm going to look like a genius but I think he needs to sit and learn.  Jackson is more of a sure thing but I would have to change the offense to suit him.  But how I think it will play out is 1) Darnold or Allen 2) Rosen 3) Allen or Darnold 4) Mayfield 5) Jackson 6) Rudolph

Edited January 18, 2018 by kdiggz

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

If we don't go QB I say pass rush will be #1 priority,  DE Clemson Austin Bryant, he can get to the QB. I'll go athletic ILB , it's a must in this scheme and Preston Brown although he made a ton of tackles is still a liability. ILB Rashaan Evans is a great athlete, hits like a ton of bricks and can drop into coverage, he isn't polished in that area but the coaches can work with him.Those would be my non QB choices, of course I think they should trade up and get one imo but I would not hate the latter either.

[wppete]

I have a feeling Mason Rudolph is the guy the Bills are looking at. He out of the Senior Bowl, that was going to be very big for him for scouts to see him under Center and a week of practice. So possible that we can even have him the 2nd round. 

[jrober38]

Just now, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

If we don't go QB I say pass rush will be #1 priority,  DE Clemson Austin Bryant, he can get to the QB. I'll go athletic ILB , it's a must in this scheme and Preston Brown although he made a ton of tackles is still a liability. ILB Rashaan Evans is a great athlete, hits like a ton of bricks and can drop into coverage, he isn't polished in that area but the coaches can work with him.Those would be my non QB choices, of course I think they should trade up and get one imo but I would not hate the latter either.

 

All of the Clemson defensive linemen went back to school. 

1 minute ago, wppete said:

I have a feeling Mason Rudolph is the guy the Bills are looking at. He out of the Senior Bowl, that was going to be very big for him for scouts to see him under Center and a week of practice. So possible that we can even have him the 2nd round. 

 

God I hope not.

 

- mediocre arm

- no mobility

- poor short and intermediate accuracy

- no experience under centre

 

Gross... 

[KDIGGZ]

4 minutes ago, wppete said:

I have a feeling Mason Rudolph is the guy the Bills are looking at. He out of the Senior Bowl, that was going to be very big for him for scouts to see him under Center and a week of practice. So possible that we can even have him the 2nd round. 

everyone else will be picked before 21 imo so unless we trade up he is the only one we would have a shot at.  i think we would have to take him at 21 knowing the Saints or Pats might want to add him as a backup

[PIZ]

13 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

And Mayfield wishes he was half the physical athlete of any those guys because I think he would die for this game.  If he doesn't make it I don't think it will be for a lack of effort.  Too bad you can't put him into one of their bodies!  If he puts that same effort into his preparation and becomes a student of the game and stays level headed, he can be a good player.  There's just so much to overcome when you are short and can't see where you are throwing a lot of the time.  You really have to know exactly where the receiver is going to be.  I don't know if he will be able to put it all together so I would be leery of drafting him top 10.  Someone will reach though.

 

Has anyone ever seen what it really looks like from the pocket for guys like Mayfield, Flutie, Tyrod Taylor?  I'm curious to see what they see, when they are short QBs behind massive o-linemen.

[billspro]

52 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I think one thing that is changeable on this list is the attitude. Rosen needs an attitude check. Everything else is good. 

 

Those other guys have pretty major flaws and therefore have a better chance to bust. Darnold has a good chance to make it if you let him sit 2 years. Mayfield will never get bigger, Jackson probably can't win from the pocket, Allen needs a lot of work (needs to sit 2-3 years), and Rudolph is slow with a so so arm as well as the footwork issues (To me he's Josh Allen without physical talent). I'm willing to take a shot of Rosen, Darnold, or even Allen round 1. The rest of those guys are a no for me.  I think Mayfield is a borderline first round pick, but Buffalo will not draft him.  

 

So to me its Rosen. Now if Rosen is a Ryan Leaf level douche then he's off the board, but if he's just a spoiled kid I'm good with it. 

 

Ya that is impossible to know without interviewing the kid and people that have worked with him. I think if Rosens attitude checks out he is the clear cut number 1. From what I have read on him I think he will be Jay Cutler 2.0

9 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

All of the Clemson defensive linemen went back to school. 

 

God I hope not.

 

- mediocre arm

- no mobility

- poor short and intermediate accuracy

- no experience under centre

 

Gross... 

 

I dont agree with your accuracy assessment. I think he has great short and intermediate accuracy. 

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

I dont agree with your accuracy assessment. I think he has great short and intermediate accuracy. 

 

Most of his scouting reports disagree. 

[billspro]

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Most of his scouting reports disagree. 

 

 

Interested if you still think that after you watch a few of his games. 

[MrEpsYtown]

38 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

I'm not a scout but I've scouted for high school teams and I watch a lot of tape on QB's because I used to play the position so I at least know what to look for and I have an interest in it.  Josh Rosen checks all of the boxes on what a prototypical NFL QB looks like.  His only problem is what he has upstairs and in his heart.  Tom Brady was very "Peterman-esque" coming out of college but he had what it took to outwork everyone else and he continues to do so almost 2 decades later.  Rosen is the type of guy that is good at everything and his family is already wealthy so who knows if he has the interest or drive to be great at just football.  He might decide he is more interested in policitics or starting his own business and he would probably do really well at those too.

 

Sam Darnold wishes he was Josh Rosen because he wants it more.  He would be a McBeane guy because of his heart and he is still a very good player.  He has some things to work on but he can be a starter in the NFL.  He's not going to go head to head with Tom Brady and throw for 400 yards to keep you in the game but he can be a part of a balanced attack that will rush it down your throat and then convert on 3rd down to move the sticks.  He would have won us the Jags game but he wouldn't be much help vs the Pats.

 

Josh Allen has the type of arm strength that people tell stories about 20 yrs later.  You hear about how Elway could throw it from one endzone to the other and you are like noooo that can't be true.  If Allen ever puts it all together he could be very special.  He hasn't been able to yet and who knows if he ever will.  He's very boom or bust.  Drafting him #1 would be like putting your entire savings into bitcoins and holding on for dear life.

 

And Mayfield wishes he was half the physical athlete of any those guys because I think he would die for this game.  If he doesn't make it I don't think it will be for a lack of effort.  Too bad you can't put him into one of their bodies!  If he puts that same effort into his preparation and becomes a student of the game and stays level headed, he can be a good player.  There's just so much to overcome when you are short and can't see where you are throwing a lot of the time.  You really have to know exactly where the receiver is going to be.  I don't know if he will be able to put it all together so I would be leery of drafting him top 10.  Someone will reach though.

 

Rudolph, who knows!  He looks the part but you would have to get him under center to see if he knows what to do in a pro style offense.  He might be a mess and a long term project or he might be a natural that just needs fine tuning.  He didn't show anything in college to determine it one way or the other.  He does have a good deep ball and he is a big guy.  With proper footwork comes more accuracy underneath too so if he put it together he could be good as well.

 

Jackson is a very good athlete.  He could have a couple of good seasons but I just don't like dual threat QB's at the NFL level.  It's not a model for long term success.  He would be exciting to watch though.  He would actually be the 3rd safest pick because with him you know what you are getting.

 

If I had to pick someone to go #1 overall it would have to be Rosen but there's a chance he won't make it past his rookie deal so I wouldn't trade the farm to move up to get him.  He could be like Jake Locker and have an injury and say screw this my health is more important.  So that makes Darnold the safest pick but I think he projects as a game manager type QB who will need to be on a team with a strong running game.  So toss up between those 2 guys imo.  The other guys are more risky and if there weren't desperate teams out there I don't know if any of them would be 1st round picks.  It would be a toss up of who to take next vs Jackson or Allen.  I'd probably go Allen because if it works out I'm going to look like a genius but I think he needs to sit and learn.  Jackson is more of a sure thing but I would have to change the offense to suit him.  But how I think it will play out is 1) Darnold or Allen 2) Rosen 3) Allen or Darnold 4) Mayfield 5) Jackson 6) Rudolph

 

Thanks for this post and putting in the time and work. Good stuff. 

 

With the super high ceiling of Allen, the Browns picking him actually makes a ton of sense. He has the highest ceiling but is also probably the greatest risk. If you are Buffalo, you can't trade up for that guy. If you are Cleveland, you could go ahead and take that guy #1 because you also have #4. It's just not as risky when you have 2 picks in the top 5. Don't know if they do it, but they are in a position to take that risk. 

 

If Cleveland takes Allen #1, it pretty much guarantees Darnold and Rosen go next because someone will trade to #3. Cleveland then still gets the best position player in the draft, whether that is Barkley or someone else like Chubb. Makes sense actually. 

Edited January 18, 2018 by MrEpsYtown

[26CornerBlitz]

[HappyDays]

48 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Stafford? 

 

I'm pretty sure Stafford had decent footwork coming out of college and was generally accurate. Any cannon arm QB who goes #1 overall is more than just a cannon arm. I can't imagine Josh Allen going #1 just a year after Mahomes went 10th. He has accuracy issues, bad footwork, and appeared to regress this year. The only reason he's even going to be a 1st round QB is his big arm. NFL front offices are still convincing themselves they can fix all the other problems but it never happens.

[RyanC883]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Bills aren’t drafting secondary with all of their holes. They re-sign Gaines and have one of the best defensive backfields in the NFL (arguably the best). They have to get QB, WR and front 7. 

 

I think this is correct.  They went after Gaines last year for a reason.  I think they draft a CB or safety later on as a backup, or find a cheap one in FA.  

[jrober38]

33 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

 

Interested if you still think that after you watch a few of his games. 

 

One game against a bad defense. 

Edited January 18, 2018 by jrober38

[KDIGGZ]

1 hour ago, PIZ said:

 

Has anyone ever seen what it really looks like from the pocket for guys like Mayfield, Flutie, Tyrod Taylor?  I'm curious to see what they see, when they are short QBs behind massive o-linemen.

it's easier for him to see in college because his pocket looks like this in a shotgun spread offense

 

in the pros it will look something like this:

 

they have virtual reality QB views now.  this is the future.  i can't wait for this to be more readily available.  but check this one out.  this is from a clean pocket and you still can't even see the WR:

 

[MJS]

I sure hope Allen goes #1 overall. Better chance for the Bills to get a better QB.

[Jay_Fixit]

Good. Good!

 

More for me and you.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Jay_Fixit

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Jimmy Clausen is going to come back to prove Kiper right. 

 

as likely as Bills trading starting DE for John Skelton.

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm pretty sure Stafford had decent footwork coming out of college and was generally accurate. Any cannon arm QB who goes #1 overall is more than just a cannon arm. I can't imagine Josh Allen going #1 just a year after Mahomes went 10th. He has accuracy issues, bad footwork, and appeared to regress this year. The only reason he's even going to be a 1st round QB is his big arm. NFL front offices are still convincing themselves they can fix all the other problems but it never happens.

Stafford was a 57% passer at Georgia and his draft profile included weaknesses like 'fundamentally lazy' and 'sloppy footwork'. 

[GunnerBill]

If Josh Allen is the 1st pick in the NFL draft then I honestly will have to question what NFL teams are watching. 

 

I don't mean this in an arrogant way I am very much an amateur but I would love the opportunity to sit in a room for an afternoon with an NFL scout who has a 1st round grade on Josh Allen and go throw by throw and have him tell me what he is seeing because I am obviously not seeing it. I have been doing it 5 years and these people all their lives so they are more qualified than me but I just can't comprehend it. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

If Josh Allen is the 1st pick in the NFL draft then I honestly will have to question what NFL teams are watching. 

 

I don't mean this in an arrogant way I am very much an amateur but I would love the opportunity to sit in a room for an afternoon with an NFL scout who has a 1st round grade on Josh Allen and go throw by throw and have him tell me what he is seeing because I am obviously not seeing it. I have been doing it 5 years and these people all their lives so they are more qualified than me but I just can't comprehend it. 

 

....you'll never figure it out.....neither have the "professional (COUGH) draftniks"........remember watching the 2007 draft when Bflo took Lynch at #12........Beiber McShea called him a "reach of a bust" followed by his two bit snicker......better yet, go back to 1994 when Bylcream Mel had his hissy fit meltdown when he battled Colts Tobin pick of Alberts over Dilfer.....when Tobin was interviewed about Mel's comments, he merely said, "who the hell is he?".....this stuff is up there with " Jim "Crissy" Everett versus Jim Rome "down and out".....

Edited January 18, 2018 by OldTimeAFLGuy