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JW: Bills Not Tempering Expectations in 2017


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WHERE did I even mention those two idiots? But lets face facts here our HC has no prior head coaching experience. He may talk a good game but let's see him win a few games before we annoint him as the second coming of Marv Levy. And the same holds true for our rookie GM and front office staff. Let's see what they do with next years draft before we start shouting their praises.

 

And I'll go on record now as forecasting a 6 win season for this team...

The logic isn't hard to follow: You said that the Bills are "clearly" in rebuild mode (i.e., not really trying to win this year), and as evidence for that, you point out that they have a new HC. The clear implication is that you believe the team will have a worse record, at least in part because Rex is no longer around. This is confirmed by your prediction that they will win 6 games.

 

I agree that we don't know yet how McDermott will do, but can we at least agree that Rex and Rob were a disgrace, and that even mediocre coaching by McDermott would be a significant improvement this year? If so, why do you think the Bills will lose more games than last year? They have the same QB and their offseason personnel losses were nothing out of the ordinary for an NFL team. Do you think the defense will have trouble adjusting to a new, simpler scheme? IMO, the Bills could finish anywhere from 4-12 to 11-5, depending on injuries, coaching, QB play and pure, blind luck. But I don't think there is any evidence whatsoever that they are in rebuilding mode this year.

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You have a rookie HC who has no previous HC experience period. Brand new stafff. Rookie GM and totally brand new front office staff. THAT ALONE IS A REBUILD....

 

And the rest of the things I mentioned only add to it. Oh, BTW I forgot to mention our supposed brand new rookie RT (presumed)... We have no idea how these pieces are all going to fit together... Will TT be the QB next year? That seems to be up in the air at this point too... Same goes for Watkins really... Kyle will need to be replaced which will create another opening in the near-future. OH AND DID I MENTION THAT THE TEAM WENT 7-9 LAST YEAR!!!

 

You're mistaking a retool with a rebuild.

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Funny... I see a rookie HC, GM, brand new Front Office crew.... A 7th yr QB who hasn't shown that he can get the job done... A 7mil/yr TE with knee problems... A #1 WR who can't stay healthy but is gonna want to be paid HUGE $$ after this season... Kyle Williams who will prob retire after this season... Darby who clearly regressed last season... basically 2 new Def rookies (Lawson & Ragland)... Eric Wood who isn't getting any younger and who has basically been so-so to this point in his careeer... I think REBUILDING sounds just about right.... An awful lot of question marks here...

I agree with this.

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if this upcoming QB draft class is to be believed as amazing, then the rebuild should be now. clearly not in rebuild mode. clearly not in playoff push mode either. just kinda muddling around like usual.

 

Treadmill seasons aren't very fun when it's all said and done. If KC has a drop off it won't be so bad.

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Rebuild or not rebuild?

Every rookie HC comes in thinking they have what it takes to make a team work. Most don't. I.e. Grego, Mularkey, Moron e and that's just this team during the drought.

How did our last rookie GM workout for us? Some will say ok, some won't , very few will sing him high praise.

Can anyone argue that a new O and D scheme will come out of the gates week 1 firing on more than half their cylinders? ( except we play the Jets... I get that.)

Analytics say our schedule isn't tough???

The Eye Ball test says our schedule is a beyatch!!!

I hope this coaching staff gets the most out of these players. I hope they stay healthier than they have in a decade. I hope Sammy plays16 games, Dareus plays to his potential, Hughes doesn't do his bonehead stuff, TT discovers the seam route and Clay is his consistent target, Darby refinds his rookie form, Shady is even better... etc

Hope is nothing but comfort for a fool ( Old Jamaican proverb).

This has the looks of a six win season and those of us who think so don't hate the team and arent trying to be downers and we'd LOVE to be wrong.

Edited by Buffalo Boy
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and if the rookie HC only wins 4-5 games this year and ends up being fired 2-3 yrs down the road are you still gonna feel the same way? Can't we just agree to sit back and see what the "kid" has? Actually this same idea should apply to most of this team... How will this yrs #1 draft pick perform/pan out? We shall see. I, like ALL Bills fans, want to see this team progress and start to win ball games.. We can all agree on that - can't we? But clearly we are in a classic rebuild here. Teams hate to use that word because it makes it tougher to sell tickets for one thing. But we have to be honest with ourselves here....

Not a rebuild. Their prospects may not be great , but that doesn't = rebuilding. New QB, new RB, new #1 WR, new DL , then you're talking about rebuilding. The Bills won't win many games, mostly because they are an average team with an average QB, not a team in " rebuild" mode.

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I don't get the rebuild talk. We have the same offense minus one backup RB. We lost Gilmore and Williams from the secondary. But got Lawson and Ragland back from injury. Where's the rebuild?

 

Only 30 of last year's roster is in camp. That is above the normal annual NFL turnover. I think that is where the talk comes from. I agree on starting personnel basically the fullback, #2 receiver, possibly RT are the only likely changes on O. D is in more flux.... because 3/4 in the 2ndry are different and who knows at the linebacker spots?

The logic isn't hard to follow: You said that the Bills are "clearly" in rebuild mode (i.e., not really trying to win this year), and as evidence for that, you point out that they have a new HC. The clear implication is that you believe the team will have a worse record, at least in part because Rex is no longer around. This is confirmed by your prediction that they will win 6 games.

 

I agree that we don't know yet how McDermott will do, but can we at least agree that Rex and Rob were a disgrace, and that even mediocre coaching by McDermott would be a significant improvement this year? If so, why do you think the Bills will lose more games than last year? They have the same QB and their offseason personnel losses were nothing out of the ordinary for an NFL team. Do you think the defense will have trouble adjusting to a new, simpler scheme? IMO, the Bills could finish anywhere from 4-12 to 11-5, depending on injuries, coaching, QB play and pure, blind luck. But I don't think there is any evidence whatsoever that they are in rebuilding mode this year.

 

I personally just think that even a defense that is better prepared and better coached and playing their assignments better could still end up somewhere around #16-18 in the league because of the talented QBs on the schedule. I expect us to be 6-10 to 8-8 again but it may be a more positive 8-8 than 2015 for example which against that schedule and with our talent was a major underachievement.

 

Because 10 of your 16 games in the NFL are different year to year simply looking at record is not a good way to judge whether a team has regressed, progressed or stayed the same. Sometimes you have to look at how those results came to get a clearer picture.

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I heard that there are only 30 members left from last years team that may not be a rebuild but it's definitely a over haul !!

 

Hyde, white, poyer, Ragland and Lawson. Four possible new starters. I'd actually say we already rebuilt! Then on the other side a new rt, new 2nd wr.

 

 

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The biggest change is the defensive scheme and personnel in the secondary with only 1 starter returning (Darby).

Based on the performance of the players in that secondary last year 3 new starters is a good thing :)

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Different scheme, different dream after last season's nightmare under Rex and Rob.

I understand and like the players I have no idea what the Ryan boys were trying to do but other than potentially Gilmore do you think we'll miss those guys?

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It seems to me that folks are too hung up over labeling. Whether you call it a rebuild, retool, or overhaul, the Bills will have roughly 6-7 new starters and a ton of new depth. They are such a huge unknown right now because McD has yet to coach a game, his staff have never worked with these players, and besides the facilities the organization has a brand new look.

 

Frankly, it is impossible to predict the performance of this team. If you're optimistic you say that the returning starters are solid, the coaching is an upgrade, and if some breaks go their way the Bills could challenge for a playoff spot. If you're pessimistic you say they still don't have a franchise QB, they lost too much depth, and a rookie HC is going to have growing pains. There is some realism in both viewpoints.

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I understand and like the players I have no idea what the Ryan boys were trying to do but other than potentially Gilmore do you think we'll miss those guys?

 

Would have been nice to have Gilmore back, but hopefully the team will get good production from White who looks very promising thus far. Aaron Williams at full health would have been nice, but I'm good with Hyde as his replacement. You have to hope that Poyer and Seymour will be suitable replacements for Graham and NRC.

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You have a rookie HC who has no previous HC experience period. Brand new stafff. Rookie GM and totally brand new front office staff. THAT ALONE IS A REBUILD....

 

And the rest of the things I mentioned only add to it. Oh, BTW I forgot to mention our supposed brand new rookie RT (presumed)... We have no idea how these pieces are all going to fit together... Will TT be the QB next year? That seems to be up in the air at this point too... Same goes for Watkins really... Kyle will need to be replaced which will create another opening in the near-future. OH AND DID I MENTION THAT THE TEAM WENT 7-9 LAST YEAR!!!

 

Lighten up, Francis.

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and if the rookie HC only wins 4-5 games this year and ends up being fired 2-3 yrs down the road are you still gonna feel the same way? Can't we just agree to sit back and see what the "kid" has? Actually this same idea should apply to most of this team... How will this yrs #1 draft pick perform/pan out? We shall see. I, like ALL Bills fans, want to see this team progress and start to win ball games.. We can all agree on that - can't we? But clearly we are in a classic rebuild here. Teams hate to use that word because it makes it tougher to sell tickets for one thing. But we have to be honest with ourselves here....

If is the middle word in life. McD is going to have to epic fail to be canned in 2-3 years. Pegs has put the pieces in place and will stick with these guys a la Pittsburgh and Tomlin.
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I think rebuilding/tanking is more a question of end goals.

 

If the Bills want to win championships, and consistently compete for one, they're very unlikely to do so as the team is presently constructed. Tyrod Taylor is very likely not the answer long term, and without that QB, you're stuck.

 

Even "if the defense improves, if they get lucky on calls, if the qb sees the middle of the field, if Watkins, Wood, McCoy, Darby K.Williams, Dareus et al stay healty...." and they get all the breaks and actually break the drought, what happens next?

 

No one in their right mind bets the Bills in the playoffs.

 

What's the point of any of this? NE will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl again, or it least is certain to appear in the Conference title game. If we want to win championships, maybe it's best to think long and hard about what we really want out of this year.

 

But once again, it appears the Bills are middling it. Getting another 1st round pick next season, but bringing back Kyle Williams, LeSean McCoy and other aging veterans. You want to "build for the future" and "trust the process" but also want to "win every practice, every preseason game, and as many regular season games as we can."

 

It's a mixed message. Are you "trusting the process" or "leading the charge" (to 7-9)?

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They don't have depth.

 

They jettisoned some solid depth(CK, MG) and replaced the FAs with draft picks.

 

Solid depth is lacking which is why the team will struggle and lose when the injuries hit, IMO.

 

If they some how remain healthy at the crucial positions they can compete for a playoff spot.

 

 

When you say "they don't have depth," you actually mean "I don't know what they have. Could be good, could be bad. So I'll just assume the worst."

 

Remember when all the Bills had for LB depth were two street free agents clowns named Zack Brown and Lorenzo Alexander? Dooooooomed!

Edited by PromoTheRobot
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They don't have depth.

 

They jettisoned some solid depth(CK, MG) and replaced the FAs with draft picks.

 

Solid depth is lacking which is why the team will struggle and lose when the injuries hit, IMO.

 

If they some how remain healthy at the crucial positions they can compete for a playoff spot.

 

This may be the most overused phrase I've seen on TSW. Truth is, you have no idea -- none of us do.

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When you say "they don't have depth," you actually mean "I don't know what they have. Could be good, could be bad. So I'll just assume the worst."

 

Remember when all the Bills had for LB depth were two street free agents clowns named Zack Brown and Lorenzo Alexander? Dooooooomed!

 

Thanks for the ray of hope, Promo! I agree: it seems like we got a steal in Hodges, who we have yet to see really play here in camp. I'm looking forward to seeing him hit, and to see his purported cover-skills in game-action against the Vikings and during the red/white scrimmages coming up this week.

 

Also, if Ragland ends up being depth, that's some seriously talented depth (SEC Defensive P.O.Y. in 2015!). Add to Rags the fact that I heard that Vallejo and Milano have mixed in with the 1's at camp, and that Milano had a really nice pick-6 the other day. Maybe our depth isn't as bad as people think! :beer:

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Do you think trading a handful of mid round picks away the past few seasons has any impact on depth and the overall talent on the roster?

 

Not when you have been as good as the Bills at finding street FAs to come in and compete and make an impact. From Corbyn Bryant, to Ryan Groy, to Jerrell Worthy, to Mike Gillislee, to LoRax..... they have been good at finding cheap depth off the street to make up for the cheap depth they have not had from those mid round picks. That was the previous regime though. Can McD and Beane do the same? Because if they can't and they keep trading those picks away there may be trouble ahead.

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Do you think trading a handful of mid round picks away the past few seasons has any impact on depth and the overall talent on the roster?

 

I don't know. I suppose "good" depth means you have competition for who will start at various positions, and you're happy with the guy who wins the job (as opposed to having to pick between two so-so options). If your starting lineup is a foregone conclusion because there's a huge dropoff to the next guy, then you either have a starting lineup full of All-Pros or you have bad depth.

 

Right now I see guys competing at OL, 2nd string RB, WR, and LB for sure -- and OL was considered a position group of strength.

 

How many NFL teams have rosters "deep" enough that they can withstand significant injuries to more than 1-2 starters?

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I think rebuilding/tanking is more a question of end goals.

 

If the Bills want to win championships, and consistently compete for one, they're very unlikely to do so as the team is presently constructed. Tyrod Taylor is very likely not the answer long term, and without that QB, you're stuck.

 

Even "if the defense improves, if they get lucky on calls, if the qb sees the middle of the field, if Watkins, Wood, McCoy, Darby K.Williams, Dareus et al stay healty...." and they get all the breaks and actually break the drought, what happens next?

 

No one in their right mind bets the Bills in the playoffs.

 

What's the point of any of this? NE will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl again, or it least is certain to appear in the Conference title game. If we want to win championships, maybe it's best to think long and hard about what we really want out of this year.

 

But once again, it appears the Bills are middling it. Getting another 1st round pick next season, but bringing back Kyle Williams, LeSean McCoy and other aging veterans. You want to "build for the future" and "trust the process" but also want to "win every practice, every preseason game, and as many regular season games as we can."

 

It's a mixed message. Are you "trusting the process" or "leading the charge" (to 7-9)?

Back to my point about Rookie Head coaches thinking they have the certain magic that all the others don't to make it work.

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You have a rookie HC who has no previous HC experience period. Brand new stafff. Rookie GM and totally brand new front office staff. THAT ALONE IS A REBUILD....

 

And the rest of the things I mentioned only add to it. Oh, BTW I forgot to mention our supposed brand new rookie RT (presumed)... We have no idea how these pieces are all going to fit together... Will TT be the QB next year? That seems to be up in the air at this point too... Same goes for Watkins really... Kyle will need to be replaced which will create another opening in the near-future. OH AND DID I MENTION THAT THE TEAM WENT 7-9 LAST YEAR!!!

 

....and EVERY damn one of them have more talent than anything that has been in those respective positions since the Polian era..bonafide football people......a bunch of young gun 40 somethings on a mission to win....now what??................

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When you say "they don't have depth," you actually mean "I don't know what they have. Could be good, could be bad. So I'll just assume the worst."

 

Remember when all the Bills had for LB depth were two street free agents clowns named Zack Brown and Lorenzo Alexander? Dooooooomed!

 

You may not have heard of him but Zach Brown was a former second round pick with and starter with elite athletic measurables and Alexander was known as a great special teamer..........that is the definition of good depth.

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You may not have heard of him but Zach Brown was a former second round pick with and starter with elite athletic measurables and Alexander was known as a great special teamer..........that is the definition of good depth.

Some points make themselves! No hanging on the rim!

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Most teams don't have depth everywhere.

 

 

 

The way some folks act here, every team is stocked three-deep with pro bowlers...not that making the pro Bowl means anything.

 

Right?

 

 

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