KDIGGZ Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 The Washington Post put together a program that gives a draft value to all of the players drafted in the past 20 years. The Bills rank 30th https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/nfl-draft-history/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 (edited) That's a really odd timeframe to use. I know that they were trying to use a bigger sample size but it's across 5 or 6 regimes for some teams. It really doesn't have anything to do with now. As an example, Indy is one of the worst drafting teams now but had Peyton, Harrison, Wayne, Edge and Freeny in that stretch. They don't have 1 of those guys on the roster nor the people that selected them. What does that have to do with now? Edited April 22, 2016 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Since '96? Well, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 It may help make the case but it doesn't prove anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 and after we miss the playoffs this year..... regime change.... wash, rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Old metric proves Bills one of the worst teams a drafting .... our W-L record over the past 16 years and 0 playoff appearances! No need to overthink it, that's all the evidence you need right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALF Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 The Bills are ahead of Raiders and Browns . Raiders have turned it around now and Browns moneyball parlay could do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 I like the tool and metric, would like to see it available for last 5 years, last 10 years, last 15... Etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmy10 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 (edited) I like the tool and metric, would like to see it available for last 5 years, last 10 years, last 15... Etc. I like the Tool and Metric too. They are two of my favorite bands. It has now been 10 years since the last Tool release. Waiting patiently... Edited April 22, 2016 by jimmy10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 I like the Tool and Metric too. They are two of my favorite bands. It has now been 10 years since the last Tool release. Waiting patiently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted April 22, 2016 Author Share Posted April 22, 2016 I like the tool and metric, would like to see it available for last 5 years, last 10 years, last 15... Etc. Seems like if the underlying data is there it should be easy to change the parameters in the query to pull that type of data out. Hopefully they make that an option in the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Old metric proves Bills one of the worst teams a drafting .... our W-L record over the past 16 years and 0 playoff appearances! No need to overthink it, that's all the evidence you need right there. this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2003Contenders Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Yea, the time frame is quite arbitrary. For example, I dare say that if you looked at the 10 years prior to this (86-95), the Bills likely had one of the BEST draft track records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 We really needed a "new metric" to establish this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted April 22, 2016 Author Share Posted April 22, 2016 Yea, the time frame is quite arbitrary. For example, I dare say that if you looked at the 10 years prior to this (86-95), the Bills likely had one of the BEST draft track records. Polian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Who cares? What matters is what happens now and moving into the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 I've come across another metric that indicates the Bills are one of the least successful teams of the past 15 years. The name of the metric? Consciousness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
todd Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Past results don't indicate future performance, but keep crusading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 It may help make the case but it doesn't prove anything. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 At least it wasn't a government funded study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Yea, the time frame is quite arbitrary. For example, I dare say that if you looked at the 10 years prior to this (86-95), the Bills likely had one of the BEST draft track records. Exactly. I would agree for about 12 of those 20 years we sucked in drafting. Now, I believe we are drafting much better rebuilding this team over the last few years. Time will tell the next two years whether the Nix/Whaley regime worked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al Czervik Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 I like the Tool and Metric too. They are two of my favorite bands. It has now been 10 years since the last Tool release. Waiting patiently... +1!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 That's a really odd timeframe to use. I know that they were trying to use a bigger sample size but it's across 5 or 6 regimes for some teams. It really doesn't have anything to do with now. As an example, Indy is one of the worst drafting teams now but had Peyton, Harrison, Wayne, Edge and Freeny in that stretch. They don't have 1 of those guys on the roster nor the people that selected them. What does that have to do with now? Indy drafted manning and luck. Yes, they were lucky to be placed to get them, but whatever -- they drafted great players that allowed them to win 10+ games 15 out of the last 18 seasons. Qbs matter far more than other players, so i totally agree with the rating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsVet Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Where the better drafting teams are getting it done is in the 2nd-3rd rounds. Of Buffalo's drafts from 2006-2014, the only solid starters they've drafted from those rounds have been Posluszny, Byrd, Levitre, and Glenn. Aaron Williams has been nothing special despite being the 34th overall pick in 2011, Woods has been OK and without good QB play, Kiko played one solid NFL season (and is on his 3rd team), leaving Preston Brown who seems like JAG. Hitting on 4 picks out of 18, albeit with different GM's, is part of the reason why the Bills struggle with depth and the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 The Bills are ahead of Raiders and Browns . Raiders have turned it around now and Browns moneyball parlay could do the same. Yeah, the Raiders have made some excellent picks lately. They've taken several of my favorites the last few years. It'll be interesting to see how the Browns do this draft. They started off well with their trade, but now to the picks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted April 22, 2016 Author Share Posted April 22, 2016 Yeah, the Raiders have made some excellent picks lately. They've taken several of my favorites the last few years. It'll be interesting to see how the Browns do this draft. They started off well with their trade, but now to the picks..... I think the Browns did well to trade back knowing that possibly 3 teams picking ahead of them will get QB's. That means they get at worst the 5th best player in the draft. Bravo! I think if the Browns utilize analytics then they might end up with picks that won't be sexy and they might not get a good draft grade but they will get players that fit what they want to do. I'm encouraged to see how it works for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris heff Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 I'm shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Past results don't indicate future performance, but keep crusading. Actually, most hiring professionals consider past performance the best predictor of future performance...just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 I really don't need another article to tell me the Bills have sucked as a franchise for 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Avon Lake now Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 There is some sense to this, but how does this relate to overall records during this time period. Are all the bad drafting teams at or near the cellar every year. Most years Bills teams have been average with 7, 8 or 9 win seasons. They have neither peaked nor bottomed out where they've had a chance to really get that impact player. 2 picks in the top 5 over all those years and no franchise changing QBs available for them to choose. (so no Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers or Eli Manning) All I'm saying is Bills drafting has as much to do with near misses when great players were taken one spot ahead of them. (Roethlisberger, Willis or Keuchel) I'd give them average grades at least in the first round and agree with other the track record seems to be improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 The Bills are ahead of Raiders and Browns . Raiders have turned it around now and Browns moneyball parlay could do the same. Objects in the mirror are closer than they appear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zonabb Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Yea, the time frame is quite arbitrary. For example, I dare say that if you looked at the 10 years prior to this (86-95), the Bills likely had one of the BEST draft track records. You sound like a man going through a divorce "Honey the first 10 years were spectacular so let's ignore the last 20 years where I cheated on you constantly and you slept on the couch all the time." The argument is only arbitrary because it paints your team poorly! It's likely the time period was selected due to some data constraint or issue, not to show how poorly the Bills are. My guess would be because UFA began in 1992, putting an onus on the ability to continually draft well and deal with losing good players. Starting in 1996 gives teams enough time to get reoriented to the new system, So from that perspective, it's not arbitrary, it's driven by a framework or theory. I didn't read it because I don't care, I'm sick of metrics, because as stated perfectly herein, they haven't made the playoffs in 16 season. End of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quinnearlysghost88 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 (edited) That's a really odd timeframe to use. I know that they were trying to use a bigger sample size but it's across 5 or 6 regimes for some teams. It really doesn't have anything to do with now. As an example, Indy is one of the worst drafting teams now but had Peyton, Harrison, Wayne, Edge and Freeny in that stretch. They don't have 1 of those guys on the roster nor the people that selected them. What does that have to do with now? The title of the article is how (team) has fared in the draft. that's pretty straight forward. They can take into account that Indy drafted those key players, but what about their other 100 draft picks? also, the bottom five looks pretty accurate. Edited April 22, 2016 by quinnearlysghost88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 You sound like a man going through a divorce "Honey the first 10 years were spectacular so let's ignore the last 20 years where I cheated on you constantly and you slept on the couch all the time." The argument is only arbitrary because it paints your team poorly! It's likely the time period was selected due to some data constraint or issue, not to show how poorly the Bills are. My guess would be because UFA began in 1992, putting an onus on the ability to continually draft well and deal with losing good players. Starting in 1996 gives teams enough time to get reoriented to the new system, So from that perspective, it's not arbitrary, it's driven by a framework or theory. I didn't read it because I don't care, I'm sick of metrics, because as stated perfectly herein, they haven't made the playoffs in 16 season. End of story. good post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas55 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 This of course reflects on Ralph Wilson; whose obsession with grinding out a yearly profit trumped paying for an expensive coaching or scouting structure. Because you see the billion dollars he made in franchise appreciation just wasn't enough. So he fires Polian, chases Butler out the door by paying him a miserly salary of $250,000; for an NFL GM!! So he turns to the likes of Marv Levy and Dick Jauron, both of whom came very cheap, and the results are the dysfunctional organization the Bills were for the vast majority of the time he owned the team. And the consequences of his cheapness and incompetence - a billion dollar payday and the most unearned entry of all time into the Hall of Fame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 I'm looking at the details and Mike Williams is a better draft pick than Lynch, Whitner, Gilmore, Watkins, and Antoine Winfield. CJ Spiller, Leodis, and McGahee rank ahead of all of the aforementioned. Scoe is a better pick than Marcellus Wiley and Ronald Darby. Interesting read, but some of this doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Obviously we need to fire Whaley for this. And then whoever we hire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsForever Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 This of course reflects on Ralph Wilson; whose obsession with grinding out a yearly profit trumped paying for an expensive coaching or scouting structure. Because you see the billion dollars he made in franchise appreciation just wasn't enough. So he fires Polian, chases Butler out the door by paying him a miserly salary of $250,000; for an NFL GM!! So he turns to the likes of Marv Levy and Dick Jauron, both of whom came very cheap, and the results are the dysfunctional organization the Bills were for the vast majority of the time he owned the team. And the consequences of his cheapness and incompetence - a billion dollar payday and the most unearned entry of all time into the Hall of Fame. Ralph Wilson was such a terrible owner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 You know damn well that doesnt prove anything at the present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bisonbrigade Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 You lost me at "Washington Post". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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