New Metric proves Bills one of worst teams at Drafting

[thebandit27]

This of course reflects on Ralph Wilson; whose obsession with grinding out a yearly profit trumped paying for an expensive coaching or scouting structure. Because you see the billion dollars he made in franchise appreciation just wasn't enough. So he fires Polian, chases Butler out the door by paying him a miserly salary of $250,000; for an NFL GM!! So he turns to the likes of Marv Levy and Dick Jauron, both of whom came very cheap, and the results are the dysfunctional organization the Bills were for the vast majority of the time he owned the team. And the consequences of his cheapness and incompetence - a billion dollar payday and the most unearned entry of all time into the Hall of Fame.

 

Ralph was a poor manager of the football department.

 

He got into the HOF for his contributions to the game, which included saving multiple franchises and spearheading the Foolish Club of AFL Owners. If you don't think he was a good owner, that's fine. Saying he's undeserving of the HOF is, IMO, severely misguided.

[H2o]

The Washington Post put together a program that gives a draft value to all of the players drafted in the past 20 years. The Bills rank 30th

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/nfl-draft-history/

Fire everyone, burn down OBD, kick Terry in the testes, and give Kim a double purple nurple. It's over.

[Tenhigh]

Where the better drafting teams are getting it done is in the 2nd-3rd rounds. Of Buffalo's drafts from 2006-2014, the only solid starters they've drafted from those rounds have been Posluszny, Byrd, Levitre, and Glenn. Aaron Williams has been nothing special despite being the 34th overall pick in 2011, Woods has been OK and without good QB play, Kiko played one solid NFL season (and is on his 3rd team), leaving Preston Brown who seems like JAG.

 

Hitting on 4 picks out of 18, albeit with different GM's, is part of the reason why the Bills struggle with depth and the cap.

Why 2006-2014? Were you cherrypicking so you could include the fact that we didn't have a 2nd in 2006 and gloss over Darby and Miller in 2015?

[BillsVet]

Why 2006-2014? Were you cherrypicking so you could include the fact that we didn't have a 2nd in 2006 and gloss over Darby and Miller in 2015?

 

I chose the first year after Donahoe was fired through 2014, which is the last draft class which should be analyzed. Because as many fans have noted here (in unison actually) we can't evaluate a draft class until they've been in the league for 2 perhaps 3 full seasons.

 

That's a 9 year sample size encompassing 18 2nd or 3rd round draft picks.

[John from Riverside]

 

I chose the first year after Donahoe was fired through 2014, which is the last draft class which should be analyzed. Because as many fans have noted here (in unison actually) we can't evaluate a draft class until they've been in the league for 2 perhaps 3 full seasons.

 

That's a 9 year sample size encompassing 18 2nd or 3rd round draft picks.

cherry picking at its best

[BillsVet]

cherry picking at its best

 

Your unabashed homerism and inability to criticize a franchise winning about 40% of their games for the period I specified is once again noted.

 

I guess this really is the post-factual age. Facts don't matter anymore, but emotions obviously do.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

The best way to measure how well a draft went is; after 4 years to see how much money your draft picks sign for.

 

You also need to break down the time frame into periods of GM in charge.

Edited April 22, 2016 by The Thurmanator

[YattaOkasan]

cherry picking at its best

He explained pretty clearly why he choose that range. It wasn't terrible to me. I do think we were terrible for most if not all of that range, and I do think we have improved substantially since that time.

 

I would be interested in applying this tool to more recent years. I also think it discounts trades. We didn't really get much out of Kiko so the tool might see that as a bad draft choice in the second when really we leveraged his work to McCoy. To me that was a great draft choice because after 2 years we got McCoy from it, but I don't think the tool saw it that way.

[K-9]

Yay, another thread telling us how much we suck! How refreshing.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[John from Riverside]

He explained pretty clearly why he choose that range. It wasn't terrible to me. I do think we were terrible for most if not all of that range, and I do think we have improved substantially since that time.

 

I would be interested in applying this tool to more recent years. I also think it discounts trades. We didn't really get much out of Kiko so the tool might see that as a bad draft choice in the second when really we leveraged his work to McCoy. To me that was a great draft choice because after 2 years we got McCoy from it, but I don't think the tool saw it that way.

Look....we have been bad....a lot....when it comes to our drafting which is displayed in our poor to average record

 

but

 

I really feel that the years under Whaley have produced some players...so the proper term would be not "the bills are bad at drafting" but more "the bills have been bad at drafting in the past"

 

Your unabashed homerism and inability to criticize a franchise winning about 40% of their games for the period I specified is once again noted.

 

I guess this really is the post-factual age. Facts don't matter anymore, but emotions obviously do.

And your piss in the punch bowl posts reflects your trollism.....but anyways

[YattaOkasan]

Look....we have been bad....a lot....when it comes to our drafting which is displayed in our poor to average record

 

but

 

I really feel that the years under Whaley have produced some players...so the proper term would be not "the bills are bad at drafting" but more "the bills have been bad at drafting in the past"

I get your point and agree, but you called out BillsVet for cherry picking right after he explained his rationale. I almost always disagree with him, but in this case he laid out a pretty reasonable rationale. Also we are much improved at drafting but even some of that would be discounted by trades (Kiko's value was much greater than contributions).

[John from Riverside]

I get your point and agree, but you called out BillsVet for cherry picking right after he explained his rationale. I almost always disagree with him, but in this case he laid out a pretty reasonable rationale. Also we are much improved at drafting but even some of that would be discounted by trades (Kiko's value was much greater than contributions).

If you want to give him credit for finally having a halfway reasonable take.....fine....the next question should be how he feels Whaley is doing which will clarify his position (which I already know)

 

Just cannot account for injuries when your drafting.....imo Kiko would still be on this team and have a main role in it had he not gotten injured. Preston brown has like 100 tackles in his rookie year then falls off......interested to see what he does this year.

 

When you are finding guys like Darby in the 2nd round.....and late round monsters like Karlos WIllaims.....your drafting pretty well.

[thebandit27]

I don't think there is any question the drafting has been a lot better there past several years.

 

They seemed to have missed on Goodwin and CK, but every team misses on early round picks. Even the best teams.

 

Whaley may have gotten lucky with Tyrod because EJ was really his make or break pick and we all know how that's turned out.

 

The only thing I disagree with here is that EJ was the make or break pick for Whaley--at that point they had to take a QB.

 

For me, the biggest QB mistakes Whaley made were (a) relying on Kolb to stay healthy and (b) not spending a mid-round 2014 pick on another QB like Mettenberger or Murray (granted, neither of those guys have been great, but the point remains that it would've been a wise investment).

[John from Riverside]

 

The only thing I disagree with here is that EJ was the make or break pick for Whaley--at that point they had to take a QB.

 

For me, the biggest QB mistakes Whaley made were (a) relying on Kolb to stay healthy and (b) not spending a mid-round 2014 pick on another QB like Mettenberger or Murray (granted, neither of those guys have been great, but the point remains that it would've been a wise investment).

I agree with all of this

 

As far as EJ Manuel goes.....I mean do we really fault Whaley here?

 

- major school

- bowl winning qb

- all the physical traits you would look for in a franchise qb

 

It just didnt work out.....a lot of different people will have opinions on why it didnt work out.....my own opinion is he simply was asked to do too much too soon.....Kolb was a disaster......they should have been looking for another QB like you said......

 

Then Tyrod comes along

[Freddie's Dead]

Yawn...move along, nothing to see here.

[Mr. WEO]

The Bills are ahead of Raiders and Browns .

 

Raiders have turned it around now and Browns moneyball parlay could do the same.

 

 

Zero chance.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Jets in top 10 was a surprise

[Mr. WEO]

cherry picking at its best

 

 

I don't think you understand what "cherry picking" means. He clearly explained his reasoning. How do prefer to be walked through it?

[ndirish1978]

I think there are two things people are reacting to here: 1- the study does appear to choose an arbitrary set of years with little explanation for why that time period was chosen, it seems reasonable for that to invite criticism; and 2- it's natural to have a negative reaction when someone call you or something you care about bad.

 

My 2 cents - it's pretty obvious we didn't draft well for a large chunk of those years. I believe the past 2 years have been a substantial improvement for us, especially in the later rounds, but really only time will tell. The 30 ranking does seem a bit harsh though when you consider the fact that we haven't consistently been picking in the top 3 or 4 every year and usually finish around 7-9/6-10 in that era. Pro Bowl rankings being apart of this metric are a bit worthless, the pro bowl is a joke and is slanted heavily towards larger market teams. I don't think we deserve to be ranked 30th, but even a homer like me admits anything above 25 is probably way too optimistic.

[bananathumb]

The Buffalo Sunshine Squad will never die.

[John from Riverside]

The Buffalo Sunshine Squad will never die.

Got have sunshine to combat your darkness

[Nanker]

Here's my metric regarding The Bills:

[MDH]

We really needed a "new metric" to establish this?

NS, the oldest metric in the book - wins and losss- tells us they havent drafted well.

[Nihilarian]

Let's look at some key qualifiers in terms of player talent from the draft recently.

• The Bills have failed to find a top edge pass rusher in the draft the last six years. Hence Mario for 100 million.
• They have failed to find that franchise QB since the mid 90's and EJ is the only QB taken with that first, first round pick for the franchise ever.
• Two first round picks for a WR when the team still didn't have that franchise guy to throw to him. This hurt the team more than fans want to believe.
• They failed to find a top pass catching TE. Hence Clay for 38 mill for 5 years with an average salary of 7.6 mill and 24 mill guaranteed for 51 receptions and 3 TD's?
• Failed to find a top all around RB after luckily losing out on Spiller the team went after Shady for a 5 year 40 mill with an avg salary of 8 mill per with 26.5 guaranteed.

Everybody seems to love Doug Whaley because he is at least attempting to field a competitive team of players, and he has to a point. This franchise still has great difficulty in finding players for certain positions. I get that a lot of teams also have great difficulty finding these same players and the Browns have been one of those teams too. At this point, I can't help but wonder which team will make the playoffs quicker or if at all. I just don't think this team is anywhere near good enough in evaluating offensive college players or edge pass rushers.

[thebandit27]

Let's look at some key qualifiers in terms of player talent from the draft recently.

• The Bills have failed to find a top edge pass rusher in the draft the last six years. Hence Mario for 100 million.
• They have failed to find that franchise QB since the mid 90's and EJ is the only QB taken with that first, first round pick for the franchise ever.
• Two first round picks for a WR when the team still didn't have that franchise guy to throw to him. This hurt the team more than fans want to believe.
• They failed to find a top pass catching TE. Hence Clay for 38 mill for 5 years with an average salary of 7.6 mill and 24 mill guaranteed for 51 receptions and 3 TD's?
• Failed to find a top all around RB after luckily losing out on Spiller the team went after Shady for a 5 year 40 mill with an avg salary of 8 mill per with 26.5 guaranteed.

Everybody seems to love Doug Whaley because he is at least attempting to field a competitive team of players, and he has to a point. This franchise still has great difficulty in finding players for certain positions. I get that a lot of teams also have great difficulty finding these same players and the Browns have been one of those teams too. At this point, I can't help but wonder which team will make the playoffs quicker or if at all. I just don't think this team is anywhere near good enough in evaluating offensive college players or edge pass rushers.

 

Those are all legitimate criticisms.

 

I think the biggest indictment of Whaley and the current staff surround the QB position, but it's hard to fault the approach they took in drafting EJ. The mistake wasn't that pick per se--they had to try--the mistake was who they picked to be the veteran placeholder and then not drafting another potential franchise guy in 2014.

 

I don't worry so much about finding pass rushers, as they did go out and trade for Jerry Hughes, who's been excellent.

 

For me, their biggest deficiency in finding quality pieces in the draft has been offensive line. The Kouandjio pick was brutal, and I hated it at the time it was made. The Miller pick I liked, and I think he'll be serviceable at RG.

 

As to Shady, I didn't mind the acquisition given the emphasis that Roman placed on having a stud RB.

[John from Riverside]

NS, the oldest metric in the book - wins and losss- tells us they havent drafted well.

Which is of course....the true

 

cannot be disputed

Let's look at some key qualifiers in terms of player talent from the draft recently.

• The Bills have failed to find a top edge pass rusher in the draft the last six years. Hence Mario for 100 million.

Yep....the last drafted real edge rusher was a 2nd round pick? I knew we would miss him a bunch when he was gone. Hard to believe the best pass rusher we have taken besides Smith goes back to 2001 in Aaron Schrobel

• They have failed to find that franchise QB since the mid 90's and EJ is the only QB taken with that first, first round pick for the franchise ever.

To be fair.....a lot of teams deal with this problem no matter how many high picks they throw at it. Good/great qbs are like unicorns.......

• Two first round picks for a WR when the team still didn't have that franchise guy to throw to him. This hurt the team more than fans want to believe.

I dont agree here.......Watkins may in fact be a great player....and when you see a great player and have a chance to get them....you do it. And it did not hurt us the following year because our first selection netted us Darby.

• They failed to find a top pass catching TE. Hence Clay for 38 mill for 5 years with an average salary of 7.6 mill and 24 mill guaranteed for 51 receptions and 3 TD's?

Only been here a year.....was a top 100 NFL player in his last year in Miami. BUT...he was not a drafted player so for this argument.....yes its been a while since we have drafted a good TE

• Failed to find a top all around RB after luckily losing out on Spiller the team went after Shady for a 5 year 40 mill with an avg salary of 8 mill per with 26.5 guaranteed.

See above.....

 

Everybody seems to love Doug Whaley because he is at least attempting to field a competitive team of players, and he has to a point. This franchise still has great difficulty in finding players for certain positions. I get that a lot of teams also have great difficulty finding these same players and the Browns have been one of those teams too. At this point, I can't help but wonder which team will make the playoffs quicker or if at all. I just don't think this team is anywhere near good enough in evaluating offensive college players or edge pass rushers.

 

All GM's miss.......the best thing that can happen to a GM is they are in a position to draft a franchise qB.....but.....great QBs once again are like Unicorn's.

 

I actually respect Whaley's ability to understand this.....and biuld the team up AROUND the QB. Whaley did not hire Rex Ryan.......so you cannot blame him for that he doesnt even report to him. If last years defense doesnt drop 20 slots we might not be having this same discussion right now. GM's should be evaluated on drafts, trades, and hires (if they did in fact do the hiring)

[Bill from NYC]

I don't think there is any question the drafting has been a lot better there past several years.

 

They seemed to have missed on Goodwin and CK, but every team misses on early round picks. Even the best teams.

 

Whaley may have gotten lucky with Tyrod because EJ was really his make or break pick and we all know how that's turned out.

I am not sure how much better they are drafting. Sammy is good but Whaley gave up a ton for him. We gave up a 4th in a trade for a second rate running back. Kuandjio flat out sucks. EJ? Come on, really.

 

Huge cap space has been used up on good but not great players.

 

Otoh, Karlos was a very good pick.

 

Hey, the draft is very important, but we are not going anywhere with this clown for a coach, let alone his loser brother. Whaley is spending like a kid in a candy store, and he should be worrying about signing Tyrod.

 

It's still a mess.

[3rdand12]

I am not sure how much better they are drafting. Sammy is good but Whaley gave up a ton for him. We gave up a 4th in a trade for a second rate running back. Kuandjio flat out sucks. EJ? Come on, really.

 

Huge cap space has been used up on good but not great players.

 

Otoh, Karlos was a very good pick.

 

Hey, the draft is very important, but we are not going anywhere with this clown for a coach, let alone his loser brother. Whaley is spending like a kid in a candy store, and he should be worrying about signing Tyrod.

 

It's still a mess.

Damn you are dark these days Bill !

Find something pleasant to attach to.

 

like Shady not getting charged or Williams playing for Miami.

you are festering by now. treat the infection

NS, the oldest metric in the book - wins and losss- tells us they havent drafted well.

i cannot agree that is a complete equation.

 

stop changing Coaches and schemes for 5 minutes. Over the last 20 years it has been change change change. when it should be tweak ,dial in, tweak again

[Ronin]

I like the tool and metric, would like to see it available for last 5 years, last 10 years, last 15... Etc.

 

Click on the Bills and you can calculate it for any year or set of years that you want. You can do all odd-numbered years, even, every third, pick any 2, 3, 7 at random, whatever. The numbers are there, just add and take an average.

 

Our average over the time frame chosen is 10.79, for instance, it took me about 60 seconds to calculate the last three years; 5.14

 

Last six years: 6.90 (2010 - 2015)

2006 - 2009: 10.82

2001=2005: 12.62

 

Last five years: 7.13

Last 10 years: 8.52

Last 15 years: 9.91

 

By year:

 

2015: 2.67

2014: 7.43

2013: 5.25

2012: 9.22

2011: 10.67

2010: 5.89

2009: 13.00

2008: 9.00

2007: 7.71

2006: 15.11

2005: 4.33

2004: 12.83

2003: 18.50

2002: 10.20

2001: 13.08

2000: 2.63

1999: 8.56

1998: 8.50

1997: 7.33

1996: 15.20

 

You're welcome!

Edited April 22, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[Billsmovinup]

Past results don't indicate future performance, but keep crusading.

I'll bet when you get a bad meal at a restaurant you just keep going back. Hoping sometime in the next fifty years they'll get it right. Just that once.

[PromoTheRobot]

So let me know if I'm getting this right...Whaley sucks because he didn't draft a franchise QB, even though there wasn't a single QB of that grade in the draft since he's been GM?

Edited April 23, 2016 by PromoTheRobot

[Nihilarian]

So let me know if I'm getting this right...Whaley sucks because he didn't draft a franchise QB, even though there wasn't a single QB of that grade in the draft since he's been GM?

In 2014 both Teddy Bridgewater (1st round #32) and Derek Carr (2nd round #36) were there to be drafted and both have been to the pro bowl in their second year. Both look to be the franchise QB's of the future for both teams.

 

Instead, Whaley drafted Sammy Watkins with two firsts and a fourth. Meanwhile, WR's Odell Beckham Jr, and two second round picks in Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson all went to the PB this past year. In a draft literally loaded with wide receiver talent, this team went out on a limb for a receiver that doesn't even fit that big, tall redzone target they have been looking to find for years. The team still says they need that big, tall redzone target WR.

 

I don't worry so much about finding pass rushers, as they did go out and trade for Jerry Hughes, who's been excellent.

 

For me, their biggest deficiency in finding quality pieces in the draft has been offensive line. The Kouandjio pick was brutal, and I hated it at the time it was made. The Miller pick I liked, and I think he'll be serviceable at RG.

 

As to Shady, I didn't mind the acquisition given the emphasis that Roman placed on having a stud RB.

Wasn't it the Colts GM who initiated that trade to get rid of a player that org deemed a bust and called one of Bill Polian's worst picks. A first rounder in Hughes for a 3rd rounder in Kelvin Shepard who played only one year for Indy and is now a Dolphin. Whaley lucked into that trade as he did with Spiller opting to sign with the Saints...Halleluja!

 

Now, much money spent on Shady McCoy when the team could have drafted RB DeVonta Freeman in the fourth in 2014? Wow, did so many teams miss on that kid!

 

Considering the two firsts for Watkins in a draft absolutely loaded with great WR talent, the failure of EJ and Cujo among others. I'd say this Org still has serious difficulty identifying offensive talent from the college ranks.

[PromoTheRobot]

In 2014 both Teddy Bridgewater (1st round #32) and Derek Carr (2nd round #36) were there to be drafted and both have been to the pro bowl in their second year. Both look to be the franchise QB's of the future for both teams.

 

Instead, Whaley drafted Sammy Watkins with two firsts and a fourth. Meanwhile, WR's Odell Beckham Jr, and two second round picks in Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson all went to the PB this past year. In a draft literally loaded with wide receiver talent, this team went out on a limb for a receiver that doesn't even fit that big, tall redzone target they have been looking to find for years. The team still says they need that big, tall redzone target WR.

 

Wasn't it the Colts GM who initiated that trade to get rid of a player that org deemed a bust and called one of Bill Polian's worst picks. A first rounder in Hughes for a 3rd rounder in Kelvin Shepard who played only one year for Indy and is now a Dolphin. Whaley lucked into that trade as he did with Spiller opting to sign with the Saints...Halleluja!

 

Now, much money spent on Shady McCoy when the team could have drafted RB DeVonta Freeman in the fourth in 2014? Wow, did so many teams miss on that kid!

 

Considering the two firsts for Watkins in a draft absolutely loaded with great WR talent, the failure of EJ and Cujo among others. I'd say this Org still has serious difficulty identifying offensive talent from the college ranks.

I'm not reading that novel.

 

Bridgwater and Carr are nice starters. They are not franchise QBs yet. So your point is an opinion. Nothing more.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

The Washington Post put together a program that gives a draft value to all of the players drafted in the past 20 years. The Bills rank 30th

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/nfl-draft-history/

 

what a surprise, we all know this.

At least it wasn't a government funded study.

 

it would take two yrs for the results to be determined .

[metzelaars_lives]

The Bills are ahead of Raiders and Browns .

 

Raiders have turned it around now and Browns moneyball parlay could do the same.

You're aware the Bills had a better record than the Raiders last season, right?

[billsfan89]

The past 20 years I wouldn't argue, the Bills drafting from 1996 to 2010 was pretty horrid with few exceptions. But that's kind of misleading since the Bills drafting since 2011 has improved tremendously. 2011 draft produced Dareus and Aaron Williams two highly productive starters, they also found a mid round gem in Searcy and a solid backup in Hairston. 2012 produced two highly productive starters in Gilmore and Glenn and some mid round gems in Bradham and Brooks. 2013 was the worst draft in the past 5 but still produced Kiko who gave a great rookie year and was traded for a productive player in McCoy, Manuel was a bust but Woods has proven to be productive in his role. 2014 Watkins looks like a stud that at least paid dividends on his high cost, Cyrus looks like a bust but Preston Brown looks like he could be productive and Henderson could develop into a late round starter. 2015 Darby who looks like a stud, Miller looks like he could be a cog on the O-line and Karlos Williams could be a mid round steal.

 

Since 2011 the drafts have consistently produced quality players with 2013 being the only completely weak draft. Overall I think using 20 years when almost all those regimes have completely turned over since then.

Edited April 23, 2016 by billsfan89

[All_Pro_Bills]

The Bills big problem with the draft is a piece-part of the franchises biggest problem and that is a lack of organizational consistency and identity since the great Super Bowl teams of the '90s. Every 3 years or so their approach changes. Its the 3-4 on defense, then its the 4-3, the same thing on offense. Look at the successful franchises. They have an easily recognizable identity and consistent approach to the game and their drafts reflect that approach and consistency. Teams like the Steelers, Patriots, Packers, to name a few. Describe the Bills offensive and defensive identity over time. How can you possibly be successful with the draft in finding players to 'fit' your system when your system changes every couple years?

 

That said, I think Whaley's performance is marginally better than his predecessors but to this point it hasn't been enough to get the Bills out of this funk and into contention. Find 3 starters with the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd picks along with some developmental types and I would consider that to be a good draft.

[CardinalScotts]

20 years 12 losing seasons -the system they used is flawed but anyone who look at their draft 1997-2000-2002-2005 complete strike outs. However the last 7 drafts have been terrific.

[Beerball]

 

i cannot agree that is a complete equation.

 

stop changing Coaches and schemes for 5 minutes. Over the last 20 years it has been change change change. when it should be tweak ,dial in, tweak again

No, make a good hire in the first place. Which of those former Bills coaches has gone on to a stellar career elsewhere? This continuity argument makes me crazy. If you have mediocre coaching talent today and you hold course you'll have mediocre coaching talent tomorrow.

[FireChan]

I dont agree here.......Watkins may in fact be a great player....and when you see a great player and have a chance to get them....you do it. And it did not hurt us the following year because our first selection netted us Darby.

How does this make sense?

Edited April 23, 2016 by FireChan