Is drafting Diggs replacement a priority in this draft?

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Who?  And does it take into account snaps played?

 

15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

This year's savings would depend upon how much of his fully guaranteed salary a trade partner would take on, and it would mean shoving $22M dead cap into next season.  I don't think we want to do that, personally.

 

Whether that would make sense, would depend upon whether the Bills think they can field a competitive offense with whatever rookie and late FA pickups they might make, and what (after the draft) the trade partner is willing to offer.

 

 

Also "week 8 on", the whole season does actually count.  But to @FireChans, feel free to present your data.

Someone else made the post, but I can't find it, so here ya go.

 

Week 10 on stats:

 

Diggs: 8 games 63 targets 37 rec 349 yards 1 TD

 

Nacua: 7 games 64 targets 41 rec 659 yards 4 TD

 

Rice: 7 games 61 targets 47 rec 560 yards 3 TD

 

Addison: 8 games 49 targets 29 rec 377 yards 3 TD

 

Flowers: 7 games 46 targets 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

 

Reed: 7 games 49 targets 36 rec 376 yards 4 TD

 

JSN: 8 games 45 targets 30 rec 303 yards 2 TD

 

So everyone can miss me with "we can't expect a rookie to replace Diggs' production." He was garbage down the stretch, and if he's closer to that guy than the guy he was for the first 9 weeks of the year, he can easily be replaced.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Define awesome?

My guess is he has 95 catches for 1050-1100 yards. That would be his worst as a Bill and still one of the top WR seasons in Bills history.  

Would be sad to see him run out of town. Don't care what others think. He is the best most complete WR in franchise history.  

 

I don't back long enough to agree with the latter. He is the best this century is all I can say. But I don't consider your numbers as awesome. I think that would see him gone.

[Kaenon]

How do we get 2 guys on that list?

Do it!

[Kornfed]

How bout just somebody to compliment him. Diggs has shown so much and we fans have no idea why he tailed off last year. This man deserves the benefit of the doubt. .... Get somebody with potential to be Diggs equal and let things play out. 

[ganesh]

Diggs was firing on all cylinders in the first six games of the season...then what happend ?

[Alphadawg7]

8 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Yes, and considering the volume of quality wrs in this draft, we're looking to replace BOTH Diggs and Davis. Samuel is a nice signing but he's more a high end WR3. Shakir being a high end WR4. 

 

And personally I'm tired of worrying about whether Stef's head is in the game anymore. His playoff drop-off these last 2 years speaks volumes. 

You are way under estimating Shakir.  He needs to be a big part of this offense and was the best WR down the stretch and in the postseason last year.  
 

Give him 120+ taegets and he puts up 90+ rec for 1300+ yards and double digit TDs.  

 

Now he’s never going to get those targets here, too many mouths to feed, but if he went to somewhere where he got those targets he would be a machine.  

[Turbo44]

After doing thorough research, if Thomas jr falls to the late teens, you do whatever you need to trade up and get him.  The dropoff from the top three to him is slight and a lot less than him to the next batch.  28, our 2025 2nd and a midround 2024 pick or two should get it done.  He's that good

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

I agree. And Josh has never had a monster WR. Give him a guy he can just throw high balls to. We always see guys like Garrett Wilson, Courtland Sutton and the like make big contested catches against the Bills. I'd like the Bills to be able to do that. Paired with Diggs, Samuel, Kincaid, Shakir, that's a versatile receiver group.

 

 

Kumerow was 6'4". Duke Williams was 6'3". He's had a monster. And he's had other guys who can go up and make contested catches, including Davis and Diggs.

 

Height isn't a non-factor. But it shouldn't be in the top three either. Fast, separation and a proven ability to run a varied route tree and to be effective at all levels should be higher priorities.

 

 

Edited March 24 by Thurman#1

[Richard Noggin]

13 hours ago, appoo said:

No. You can also trade for ready made WRs 

 

It's been said, but doing this, which is not super common or automatically available, requires a BIG, long term cap investment. Plus trade compensation. Trading a 1st for Diggs made sense with a young QB17 on a rookie deal. Doing it again with an elite QB17 on a big deal, with myriad cap constraints, makes much less sense. 

 

12 hours ago, Beck Water said:

I don't think of it as we need to "draft a Diggs replacement" in this draft per se in this draft, but this may be a matter of semantics.  I 100% believe we need to try to draft the best WR prospect we can get at our draft position or a reasonable maneuver.

 

The way I see it, offenses work better when they have two very good to elite WR.  Davis racked up 200 yds in the 2021 division round because the Chiefs were scared of Diggs and covered him like a blanket.  That proved to be somewhat of a 1-off occurrence rather than a steady diet, and Diggs doesn't elicit the same fear these days.

 

Then of course, there's the ever-present "what if he gets hurt?"  I thought Milano was the "indispensible man" on D, but to their credit the Bills made a combination of Poyer and Dodson work in his stead.  We need to have some option for Diggs - another WR who can step up and be that #1, at least on some of the snaps even if he's platooning with Samuel or Shakir.

 

So I 100% see the need for another good to elite WR to pair with Diggs who will hopefully grow into a #1 role, whether that's next year or 2 years from now.

 

We need to be able to rely on WR help we get in the draft, not signing FA at a very pricy position.

 

I agree insofar as Diggs isn't the main reason the Bills "should" be trying to add an awesome boundary WR prospect in this draft. Josh Allen, a presumably historic WR draft pool, and a lack of blue chip WR prospects currently in the pipeline, are the reasons why the Bills should be looking to get a guy in the first two rounds (if not the first). The Bills have invested less draft picks in the WR position than most top orgs over the last five seasons (even with a Diggs 1st and 4th)...and it's a perfect draft year to change that. 

 

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

What data leads you to that very specific conclusion about "deep" passes being the only decline in their game?    

 

The Bills were 3rd in passing yards and Allen lead the league in completion % in 2020.

 

They have fallen off to between 9th and 11th each year and Allen's completion % and QB ratings have dropped significantly since.

 

Do you NOT recall 2022 in fall?  When Allen tore his arm.......'against the Jets......what a mess.    He was hurling nothing but intermediate and deep throws for much of the season thereafter.  

 

It's not like they've been reduced to a dink and dunk by a decline in the deep ball.    It's been much more than just that.

 

Their WR corps has just declined in quality quite drastically from prime Diggs/Beasley/Brown and Davis as WR4.

 

For much of 2020 they had arguably the most talented WR corps in the NFL and it was cited for helping elevate Allen's game to broadly unexpected heights.

 

A stack of deep WR drafts have followed and caused defense's to adapt to the depth around the league.  The amount of talent in most WR rooms around the league has only grown.    Teams have followed the plan to put big talent around their young QB.   The Bills, on the other hand,  have gotten notably worse at WR despite that rising tide of talent league-wide. 

 

 

Yes. Those 2020 and 2021 Bills WR groups were good enough then. But Brown, Beasley, and Davis are gone, and Diggs is not the same dude. Shakir is a nice complementary piece, Samuel is a great Z/Y addition, and we hope to see Kincaid really take off, but the Bills need another high-end talent who can threaten defenses outside. Whether Diggs is here and healthy or not.   

[iccrewman112]

WR has become a necessary position to fill via the draft for all teams due to cap concerns. Having two 1a and 1b WRs are too expensive via free agency or 2nd and 3rd contracts one needs to be cap friendly rookie deal in my opinion.

[CaptnCoke11]

Can’t go into the draft and say we have to get a first round WR.. Beane is way smarter than that 

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, FireChans said:

Pretty sure a couple of the guys drafted in the first round last year well outproduced Diggs from like week 8 on.

 

 

When only week 8 on count towards wins and losses, that will matter. 

 

Just as reasonable and full of spin to say that he wasn't that productive after the OC who drew up the playbook was replaced by another OC forced to use the original guy's playbook.

 

Diggs was 7th in receptions, 13th in yards and tied for 8th in TDs. 10th in 1st downs. All of those are still very good. Not as good as we're used to from Diggs. But very very good.

 

And again, Josh overthrew an open Diggs on bombs like 6 times last year. 

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

You might be correct.  Unlike this season, the Bills would actually save cap space ($22.75M dead cap vs. $27.85M on roster).  Also unlike this season, Diggs only has $3.5M of his 2025 salary guaranteeing on the new league year, which gives both the Bills and any potential trade partners more leverage negotiating with him.

 

I think it depends upon how he plays and how the receivers we acquire play.  Hopefully the answer is "well" to both, and we trade him off for something reasonable.

 

 

Gunner could indeed be correct here.

 

I'd bet it's a less than 50% bet, myself. Saving $4.9M on the cap in 2025 isn't worth the difference between seeing Diggs play elsewhere vs. Diggs playing here and likely putting up 1000 yards even with a not great year.

[machine gun kelly]

16 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Even if you could find a GM willing to trade you a WR1, if it's an established player, you are talking about a large contract coming in. And then, of course, a shorter shelf life. Diggs was an unusual case, in any event, and the cost was a first round draft choice. Why not spend it on a rookie WR with potential? Maybe you think Minnesota wants to try and repeat the Diggs trade, and send us Justin Jefferson . . . 

Exactly, as some people just can’t seem to fathom we have 11 picks, and very little $.  It’s not our year for a big trade.  After this year, maybe as our cap cleans up well next year.  We purged a lot of the cap hit this year.

[PBF81]

In 7 seasons they should have done something besides merely signing Diggs to begin with.  Same for the OL and the (up until last year) hodgepodge way they've pieces our OL together.  

 

It's become an issue and it's their problem to solve.  Let's see how they do. 

 

It's quite possible that it's the overall methodology that's the issue.

 

Just sayin'.

 

 

[ProcessTruster]

no

[oldmanfan]

This year?  No.  Although I would be surprised if they don’t draft a WR day 1or 2.  They’ll keep Diggs another year or two, then when he and Miller’s cap numbers become manageable they can get a 1 in free agency if they don’t have a guy from the draft that earns it.

[DJB]

Absolutely it’s a priority. Better to get a guy a year too early than a year too late.

 

Its paramount we come out of this draft with a WR at 28

[Sweats]

We're going to have alot of choice for a WR in this draft.

My only issue is that i see people wanting McConkey and i'm saying, hell no to that. I get it, he's a gadget guy and a guy that Beane tends to love for gimmicky schemes, however, we can barely scheme for the guys that we have now......best to get a WR that can stretch the field.

I'm partial to Mitchell, but anyone that can come in and compete for Diggs' spot has my vote.

[Doc]

8 minutes ago, Sweats said:

We're going to have alot of choice for a WR in this draft.

My only issue is that i see people wanting McConkey and i'm saying, hell no to that. I get it, he's a gadget guy and a guy that Beane tends to love for gimmicky schemes, however, we can barely scheme for the guys that we have now......best to get a WR that can stretch the field.

I'm partial to Mitchell, but anyone that can come in and compete for Diggs' spot has my vote.

 

They just got one in Samuel.  No need for another.

[FireChans]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

When only week 8 on count towards wins and losses, that will matter. 

 

Just as reasonable and full of spin to say that he wasn't that productive after the OC who drew up the playbook was replaced by another OC forced to use the original guy's playbook.

 

Diggs was 7th in receptions, 13th in yards and tied for 8th in TDs. 10th in 1st downs. All of those are still very good. Not as good as we're used to from Diggs. But very very good.

 

And again, Josh overthrew an open Diggs on bombs like 6 times last year. 

If Diggs in 2024 is the guy in the last 8 weeks and not the first ten, he is easily replaceable by a rookie. That was my point.

[LeGOATski]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Kumerow was 6'4". Duke Williams was 6'3". He's had a monster. And he's had other guys who can go up and make contested catches, including Davis and Diggs.

 

Height isn't a non-factor. But it shouldn't be in the top three either. Fast, separation and a proven ability to run a varied route tree and to be effective at all levels should be higher priorities.

 

 

I'm not talking about just a tall receiver. That's a very basic way of looking at my post. You see I mentioned Garret Wilson, who isn't even that big. I'm talking about a talented WR who actually has that skill set.

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I'm not talking about just a tall receiver. That's a very basic way of looking at my post. You see I mentioned Garret Wilson, who isn't even that big. I'm talking about a talented WR who actually has that skill set.

Ladd mcconkey's pro comp is Garret Wilson when Daniel Jeremiah was doing the combine if I remember correctly 

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

When only week 8 on count towards wins and losses, that will matter. 

 

Just as reasonable and full of spin to say that he wasn't that productive after the OC who drew up the playbook was replaced by another OC forced to use the original guy's playbook.

 

Diggs was 7th in receptions, 13th in yards and tied for 8th in TDs. 10th in 1st downs. All of those are still very good. Not as good as we're used to from Diggs. But very very good.

 

And again, Josh overthrew an open Diggs on bombs like 6 times last year. 

 

Good point on "when only week 8 on count...."

 

Yes, Josh overthrew Diggs....there was also that bomb in the playoffs that it really looked as though Diggs could have caught, and he's stated "that's one I wish I had back".  Diggs also has 8 scored drops.
 

Diggs is undoubtedly a very good WR still

[DrDawkinstein]

The Athletic dropped their updated Mock Draft 2.0.

 

For whatever it's worth, yet another DE...

 

28. Buffalo Bills: Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri

The Bills tried to move up to get one of the top four receivers, but once that didn’t work, they had a deal in place to move down … that also fell through. Moving down would be preferred if the board played out this way. But with the depth of the receiver class, there is no reason to force the pick and take someone who doesn’t fit what the Bills need in an X receiver with speed to get over the top. Instead, they used their pick on another premium position and landed a long, versatile defensive lineman — a selection that had Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane written all over it. The vision is to eventually use Robinson as a starting defensive lineman who can play on either edge or inside at defensive tackle, depending on the situation. As a prospect, Robinson has been compared to Arik Armstead, whom the Bills were in on as a free agent. — Joe Buscaglia

 

 

 

I have a feeling that the high priority to draft a new #1 WR may exist more with the fans than at OBD. Especially given how little future-drafting Beane has done in the past. Still have my sights set on Troy Franklin tho...

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I have a feeling that the high priority to draft a new #1 WR may exist more with the fans than at OBD. Especially given how little future-drafting Beane has done in the past. Still have my sights set on Troy Franklin tho...

I have the same fear, but I keep telling myself that Beane not touching a restructure on Stef means that he knows his days are numbered. 
 

I’m still preparing myself for the onslaught of “we didn’t need a highly drafted WR, we signed Curtis Samuel” posts after the the draft.

Edited March 24 by FireChans

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I have the same fear, but I keep telling myself that Beane not touching a restructure on Stef means that he knows his days are numbered. 
 

I’m still preparing myself for the onslaught of “we didn’t need a highly drafted WR, we signed Curtis Samuel” posts after the the draft.

 

If we do go with a different position at 28, I'll wait to see how the 2nd round plays out before getting on the roof.

 

I just think it's most likely Beane doesnt get serious about an early WR until next year, if/when Diggs is already gone. It's kinda been their MO. Frustratingly.

Edited March 24 by DrDawkinstein

[FireChans]

15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Good point on "when only week 8 on count...."

 

Yes, Josh overthrew Diggs....there was also that bomb in the playoffs that it really looked as though Diggs could have caught, and he's stated "that's one I wish I had back".  Diggs also has 8 scored drops.
 

Diggs is undoubtedly a very good WR still

Very much doubtedly, tbh. 

[oldmanfan]

If they see it as a priority then Beane will move up in round 1.

[FireChans]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

If we do go with a different position at 28, I'll wait to see how the 2nd round plays out before getting on the roof.

I will accept a trade back or a WR in the first. Otherwise, I’m putting up the Fire Beane billboard. 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I will accept a trade back or a WR in the first. Otherwise, I’m putting up the Fire Beane billboard. 

 

"Save your postage"

 

[FireChans]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

"Save your postage"

 

I won’t sit idly by while they do our boy dirty like they did with Cam. 

[Magox]

I believe so.

 

Doesn't necessarily mean that Diggs is a goner in 2025, if he shows he still has juice and is productive then it doesn't make sense to get move on from him in 2025.

 

But that is a big if.  And I'd rather draft someone who we believe can potentially be the #1 WR this year so that if Diggs is not with us in 2025 that this player would already have a year under his belt to potentially move into the #1 spot rather than relying on drafting a premium pick to become that guy as a rookie.

[Yantha]

I'd put drafting Diggs' replacement at a top 4 priority.

 

1.  Draft Diggs' replacement

2.  Add S youth to offset Poyer/Hyde

3.  Add an Edge rusher to offset Von Miller's decline and lack of pass rush.

4.  Add OC to account for the loss of Mitch Morse

 

By the end of round 4, all of these positions would be addressed in a perfect world in my opinion.

 

I'd say we need DT but should be able to pick a few in round 5+.

 

But again, it depends on BPA..... and you never know how the board falls.  I like WRs right through round 5, so WR in round 1 isn't an absolute MUST in my opinion.  

Edited March 24 by Yantha

[Toyo321]

43 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I won’t sit idly by while they do our boy dirty like they did with Cam. 

Do you really believe Beane has the balls to draft a #1 WR at #28 with Diggs being a loose cannon the past few years when everything is not all about him, on the Offense.  I have a bad feeling that Joe Brady is going to expose a cancer on this team,  this year named "SD" Stephon Diggs.  After seeing this guys attitude last year, the year before and the way he has been this off season, the sooner the better we somehow trade him to another team might become a reality.  Just my gut feelings about him.  I hope I am wrong.  But Josh is the the priority on the team and I hope Joe Brady throws the book at him to design plays that do not rely on Digg's and utilize all the other weapons that this team still has.  If he doesn't it's going to a long season on offense.

[ColoradoBills]

Everyone has an opinion on this.  This is mine.

 

Draft a WR in the 1st round (2nd at the latest).  I will be disappointed in Beane if he does not.

I prefer to let the draft come to Beane and not waste a 4th to move up 2 spots unless he is pretty darn sure a team

like the Chiefs is trading up to take his guy.

 

With the draft full of WRs, Beane should have a lot more than 1 guy he'd be happy with, both in the 1st and 2nd rounds.

[Toyo321]

 

Maybe a little optimism..........

 

 

[3rdand12]

21 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Good post.  Allen was actually 4th, not leading the league in completion % in 2020, but that's a nit.  He had 69% completion % with 8 y/a, and I would lobby that Diggs/Sanders-Davis/Beasley in 2021 was also pretty good: while Allen's completion percentage declined, and passing yardage went from 5th to 8th, that represented a drop of 137 yds over a 17 game season, or 8 ypg.  And some could argue Diggs decline from #1 WR in the league with a 76.6% catch % played a role.  For 2022 the fall-off in terms of passing yards was double - 261 yds - and the Int% starting to climb.  This past season, while Allen's completion percentage climbed from 63% to 66%, his Int% was almost twice what it was in 2020, 3.1% vs 1.7%.

 

Some would say that's on Allen, and I'm sure some of it is, but it's also on WR not getting the same separation, or reading the defense and choosing the correct option, and then Allen getting impatient and trying to force things to happen.

 

So while we aren't exactly talking a 'sea change' from top-3 passing offense to top-8 or 9 passing offense, that kind of drop is significant for a team with Championship as the goal.

 

So yeah - Beane and the Bills Brain Trust felt that Davis was ready to step up and achieve something close to his 2020 Colts playoff or 2021 KC division round performance, on the regular.  They were mistaken.  They felt that McKenzie was ready to step up and go as a platoon with Crowder in the slot.  Crowder got injured, and they were mistaken on that point too.   Mistakes happen to all teams and all FOs - took the Chiefs what, 3 shots at a WR in the 2nd round to land one who looks promising? and there's Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the 1st. 

 

But you don't hit the shot you don't take.  Time for the Bills to shoot their shot at WR.

 

 

 

I don't think that's really the question.  In my mind, we're not trying to replace Diggs, we're trying to draft a guy who can give us a 1-2 punch WITH Diggs, and who has the potential to develop as a future #1 (not to walk in the door and hit it).

When and how would you bring in Diggs "next"

I think we should be discussing that.

As I have said. Bills would do well to draft a WR with speed and some of the other qualities somewhere along the first two days

But if they have a shot to gets Diggs some real competition from the draft , they certainly should.

If that speedy x receiver happens to have most all the qualities to take him to 1A ? then , all the better.

 

 

[Bill from NYC]

100% yes.

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

The Athletic dropped their updated Mock Draft 2.0.

 

For whatever it's worth, yet another DE...

 

28. Buffalo Bills: Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri

The Bills tried to move up to get one of the top four receivers, but once that didn’t work, they had a deal in place to move down … that also fell through. Moving down would be preferred if the board played out this way. But with the depth of the receiver class, there is no reason to force the pick and take someone who doesn’t fit what the Bills need in an X receiver with speed to get over the top. Instead, they used their pick on another premium position and landed a long, versatile defensive lineman — a selection that had Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane written all over it. The vision is to eventually use Robinson as a starting defensive lineman who can play on either edge or inside at defensive tackle, depending on the situation. As a prospect, Robinson has been compared to Arik Armstead, whom the Bills were in on as a free agent. — Joe Buscaglia

 

 

 

I have a feeling that the high priority to draft a new #1 WR may exist more with the fans than at OBD. Especially given how little future-drafting Beane has done in the past. Still have my sights set on Troy Franklin tho...

 they need WRs. How and when Bills gather them remains to be seen.

and Franklin ? yep

 I expect McBeanes to move around trying to get the third pick back or even into the second depending.

two twos might be good 😏

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

Very much doubtedly, tbh. 

Upper body injury many of us projected last year.

His foot work was good as ever , he seemed to not be able to reach the ball at times. and he was man on man often late in the season. no doubles.

Hopeful that projection was correct and he returns to form