Is drafting Diggs replacement a priority in this draft?

[Coldfronts]

yes

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, appoo said:

Where are you getting that number? Diggs has widely been consider a top 5 WR since coming to Buffalo

Outside of any metrics, Diggs was not a factor the second half of last year. Maybe he was injured, and surely, we didn't have an X to take pressure off of him, but he wasn't actually commanding double coverage. He isn't a top 5 WR now. Greg Cosell, who I like as an analyst, says he isn't a WR1 anymore. Maybe he bounces back, but I don't think it's realistic to expect the WR of three years ago.

[papazoid]

absolutely !

 

time to draft WR1 in first round.......prepare for life after diggs

[BillsFan130]

Diggs actually said he's not going to restructure for cap space?

[3rdand12]

12 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Diggs actually said he's not going to restructure for cap space?

link that rumor !

[Virgil]

12 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Diggs actually said he's not going to restructure for cap space?

 

Just now, 3rdand12 said:

link that rumor !

 

Either on Twitter or Instagram, someone recommended that Diggs restructure his deal to help the team or facilitate a trade.  Diggs responded personally and said "nope"

[BillsFan130]

Just now, Virgil said:

 

 

Either on Twitter or Instagram, someone recommended that Diggs restructure his deal to help the team or facilitate a trade.  Diggs responded personally and said "nope"

Crazy. If what you said is true (which I'm sure it is) , that just shows he wants out.

 

Cause who would turn down cash up front with more security in his contract 

[Virgil]

2 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Crazy. If what you said is true (which I'm sure it is) , that just shows he wants out.

 

Cause who would turn down cash up front with more security in his contract 

 

I interpret that differently.  I take it as he doesn't want to be traded and he has no interest in giving money back.  He knows he can't be moved with is contract as is.  We aren't eating that dead money with nothing in return.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

 

Good breakdown.

 

In your opinion, who fits the mold of a X receiver in this draft and how many are there?

Thank you. 

 

First let me say that I haven’t watched much film on the WRs so I am mostly using other people’s work on this. Obviously the top three - Harrison and Odunze look like of stud “do it all” X WRs. Nabors can probably do that job but would be better at Y/Z. He doesn’t have the physicality the other two do. 

 

Jermaine Burton is a player that looks like he can do it all as an X. I’ve watched a little of him. Talent-wise he is no worse than my WR4, but he has issues on and off the field. He will be off of some teams’ boards and dinged on others. If the Bills brass are comfortable with the character concerns, then I’d be very happy with him wherever we took him - 28, trading up from 60 or at 60. The question is how far he will fall. He’s a guy who has the talent to be a real difference maker. 

 

Adonai Mitchell can be an X. I’ve read that he can win at every level, but he didn’t do any agility testing and I haven’t watched him.

 

Brian Thomas Jr is an X, but one that is more in the mold of Metcalf. Big, fast and a contested catch winner. He can stress defenses deep, but his downside looks to be agility limitations that will limit his route tree. I don’t think he can separate quickly but he might be able to make up for some of that with contested catches (something Gabe Davis was terrible at).

 

Keon Coleman - same mold as Thomas Jr. but not as fast. 

 

Malachi Corley - Y/Z mold

 

Troy Franklin - vertical receiver, not sure if he is physical enough (yet) to be an X.

 

Xavier Leggette - X receiver, raw with limited route tree but may have the ability to diversify that. Haven’t watched him, but seems like he might have the talent to do everything. 

 

Ladd McConkey - Y and maybe Z

 

Jalen McMillan - Y/Z 

 

Ricky Pearsall - Y and maybe Z

 

Ja’Lynn Polk - vertical outside WR who can make contested catches. I see him as an X  if he can be physical enough. Apparently he was poor against zone coverage so I wouldn’t use any valuable pick on him. 

 

Devontez Walker - X receiver. He’s not huge but should be big and physical enough to play on the LOS. Not polished, but very talented. 

 

Xavier Worthy - Y/Z with elite speed. 

 

I enjoyed typing this up and it should be a good summary for me during the draft. Hope it helps. 

Edited March 23 by BarleyNY

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

 

I'd argue the only part of the passing game that has declined is the deep ball.  With the addition of our run game this past season, the numbers were bound to go down and they really didn't drop that much.  I'd also argue the lack of deep ball came from the shift in opposing defensive focuses to a cover 2 look.  Most passing teams saw the same decline in deep passes.  

This has been the trend of the league the last few years. It forces offenses to be patient and matriculate the ball down the field. It works because not too many qb’s have the patience to do this without committing mistakes along the way.

 

Yes we need a cheaper replacement for Diggs. That contract, along with Von’s, is a noose around this organization. But don’t expect the deep bombs to comeback with regularity regardless of which receivers Bills add. The game is about being patient and minimizing mistakes from the qb position. Methodically moving the ball down the field while playing keep away from your opponent. Of course that conversation will continue in the many many threads addressing it. lol 

[BillsFan130]

3 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

I interpret that differently.  I take it as he doesn't want to be traded and he has no interest in giving money back.  He knows he can't be moved with is contract as is.  We aren't eating that dead money with nothing in return.

Are you referring to a pay cut opposed to a restructure into a signing bonus?

[stinky finger]

12 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

link that rumor !

[Virgil]

3 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Are you referring to a pay cut opposed to a restructure into a signing bonus?

 

Pay cut, yes

[BillsFan130]

3 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Pay cut, yes

Ahh ok that's completely different then a true "restructure " which I was referring too 

[Doc Brown]

43 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

If anything I'm overvaluing him

 

In this offense, being the 13th most productive wideout in the league on the 5th highest AAV is really bad value compared to a good rookie

Only nine rookie WR's had more yards than Diggs had last year in NFL history.  None had more receptions.  Expecting a rookie WR to come in and produce at his level is unrealistic.

[Dr. Who]

18 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Thank you. 

 

First let me say that I haven’t watched much film on the WRs so I am mostly using other people’s work on this. Obviously the top three - Harrison and Odunze look like of stud “do it all” X WRs. Nabors can probably do that job but would be better at Y/Z. He doesn’t have the physicality the other two do. 

 

Jermaine Burton is a player that looks like he can do it all as an X. I’ve watched a little of him. Talent-wise he is no worse than my WR4, but he has issues on and off the field. He will be off of some teams’ boards and dinged on others. If the Bills brass are comfortable with the character concerns, then I’d be very happy with him wherever we took him - 28, trading up from 60 or at 60. The question is how far he will fall. He’s a guy who has the talent to be a real difference maker. 

 

Adonai Mitchell can be an X. I’ve read that he can win at every level, but he didn’t do any agility testing and I haven’t watched him.

 

Brian Thomas Jr is an X, but one that is more in the mold of Metcalf. Big, fast and a contested catch winner. He can stress defenses deep, but his downside looks to be agility limitations that will limit his route tree. I don’t think he can separate quickly but he might be able to make up for some of that with contested catches (something Gabe Davis was terrible at).

 

Keon Coleman - same mold as Thomas Jr. 

 

Malachi Corley - Y/Z mold

 

Troy Franklin - vertical receiver, not sure if he is physical enough (yet) to be an X.

 

Xavier Leggette - X receiver, raw with limited route tree but may have the ability to diversify that. Haven’t watched him, but seems like he might have the talent to do everything. 

 

Ladd McConkey - Y and maybe Z. 

 

To be continued…….

Coleman isn't anywhere near Thomas' speed.

[Warcodered]

When your #1 WR is on the wrong side of 30 and just had a season where he seemed to fall off towards the end in a draft that appears to be a strong WR one, absolutely.

 

I hope Diggs has a great season and maybe is able to stick around longer, but you have to look down the road anyway. 

[BarleyNY]

11 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Coleman isn't anywhere near Thomas' speed.

True. Same mold, but not as fast. 

[Beck Water]

40 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

What data leads you to that very specific conclusion about "deep" passes being the only decline in their game?    

 

The Bills were 3rd in passing yards and Allen lead the league in completion % in 2020.

 

They have fallen off to between 9th and 11th each year and Allen's completion % and QB ratings have dropped significantly since.

 

Do you NOT recall 2022 in fall?  When Allen tore his arm.......'against the Jets......what a mess.    He was hurling nothing but intermediate and deep throws for much of the season thereafter.  

 

It's not like they've been reduced to a dink and dunk by a decline in the deep ball.    It's been much more than just that.

 

Their WR corps has just declined in quality quite drastically from prime Diggs/Beasley/Brown and Davis as WR4.

 

For much of 2020 they had arguably the most talented WR corps in the NFL and it was cited for helping elevate Allen's game to broadly unexpected heights.

 

A stack of deep WR drafts have followed and caused defense's to adapt to the depth around the league.  The amount of talent in most WR rooms around the league has only grown.    Teams have followed the plan to put big talent around their young QB.   The Bills, on the other hand,  have gotten notably worse at WR despite that rising tide of talent league-wide. 

 

Good post.  Allen was actually 4th, not leading the league in completion % in 2020, but that's a nit.  He had 69% completion % with 8 y/a, and I would lobby that Diggs/Sanders-Davis/Beasley in 2021 was also pretty good: while Allen's completion percentage declined, and passing yardage went from 5th to 8th, that represented a drop of 137 yds over a 17 game season, or 8 ypg.  And some could argue Diggs decline from #1 WR in the league with a 76.6% catch % played a role.  For 2022 the fall-off in terms of passing yards was double - 261 yds - and the Int% starting to climb.  This past season, while Allen's completion percentage climbed from 63% to 66%, his Int% was almost twice what it was in 2020, 3.1% vs 1.7%.

 

Some would say that's on Allen, and I'm sure some of it is, but it's also on WR not getting the same separation, or reading the defense and choosing the correct option, and then Allen getting impatient and trying to force things to happen.

 

So while we aren't exactly talking a 'sea change' from top-3 passing offense to top-8 or 9 passing offense, that kind of drop is significant for a team with Championship as the goal.

 

So yeah - Beane and the Bills Brain Trust felt that Davis was ready to step up and achieve something close to his 2020 Colts playoff or 2021 KC division round performance, on the regular.  They were mistaken.  They felt that McKenzie was ready to step up and go as a platoon with Crowder in the slot.  Crowder got injured, and they were mistaken on that point too.   Mistakes happen to all teams and all FOs - took the Chiefs what, 3 shots at a WR in the 2nd round to land one who looks promising? and there's Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the 1st. 

 

But you don't hit the shot you don't take.  Time for the Bills to shoot their shot at WR.

 

 

19 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Only nine rookie WR's had more yards than Diggs had last year in NFL history.  None had more receptions.  Expecting a rookie WR to come in and produce at his level is unrealistic.

 

I don't think that's really the question.  In my mind, we're not trying to replace Diggs, we're trying to draft a guy who can give us a 1-2 punch WITH Diggs, and who has the potential to develop as a future #1 (not to walk in the door and hit it).

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Only nine rookie WR's had more yards than Diggs had last year in NFL history.  None had more receptions.  Expecting a rookie WR to come in and produce at his level is unrealistic.

It's not simply about gross production. That's a simplistic way to look at the valuation of going for a rookie wideout

 

Diggs got 160 targets last season and turned in the 70th most efficient performance in terms of producing ypa

 

I have little doubt a cheaper efficient rookie would be more valuable regardless of whether he breaks an irrelevant gross yardage figure