Drafting 10 or 11 Rookies: Is there an argument to do that this year?

[ColoradoBills]

There is a lot of speculation of Beane using a number of picks to move around the board this season.

He has done that in the past, so the premise has legs.

 

On the other hand, Beane has never been in this situation needing some help in a number of areas while needing to get younger AND

controlling he cap going forward.  Lots of depth penciled in that could be improved on.  I look at the Hamlin's/Doyle's as examples.   

 

After the first 2 rounds (my personal hope is WR with 1 early pick and DL or S with the other), the remaining 9 are from the late 4th on.

Beane and his boys have found some decent players in these rounds, BUT the odds stack against you.

 

Could doubling up on Safety picks (if not in the 2nd) and OL/DL along with single picks of RB/CB/P have any advantage?

I know it's a risk, but everything has risk.

 

I just keep wondering if this approach has any merit.

 

 

[RobbRiddick]

I think he'll definitely package some of them to move up but I hope we pick plenty of defense, especially LB and DBs in the later rounds. McD and his staff are great at finding diamonds in the rough who have skill sets that match what they do in this D.

 

I'd like the early rounds to be offense but later rounds I'm happy for them to stockpile some defensive depth

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

There is a lot of speculation of Beane using a number of picks to move around the board this season.

He has done that in the past, so the premise has legs.

 

On the other hand, Beane has never been in this situation needing some help in a number of areas while needing to get younger AND

controlling he cap going forward.  Lots of depth penciled in that could be improved on.  I look at the Hamlin's/Doyle's as examples.   

 

After the first 2 rounds (my personal hope is WR with 1 early pick and DL or S with the other), the remaining 9 are from the late 4th on.

Beane and his boys have found some decent players in these rounds, BUT the odds stack against you.

 

Could doubling up on Safety picks (if not in the 2nd) and OL/DL along with single picks of RB/CB/P have any advantage?

I know it's a risk, but everything has risk.

 

I just keep wondering if this approach has any merit.

 

 

IMO, no.

 

Here's an example. It's the start of the 6th round. We have 188 and 1999.  You have a few players left on your board with 5th round grades on them.  Are you better off packaging one or both those picks to move up and get a 5th round graded prospect, or stand pat and miss out on players with higher grades to let the board come to you (or miss out on players of need with similar grades)?

 

For me, I trust Beane and co. in these later rounds.  Stay pat if it makes no difference. Package your sixths and sevenths to get guys you think are going to be better or play a position of need.

Edited March 17 by FireChans

[ColoradoBills]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

IMO, no.

 

Here's an example. It's the start of the 6th round. We have 188 and 1999.  You have a few players left on your board with 5th round grades on them.  Are you better off packaging one or both those picks to move up and get a 5th round graded prospect, or stand pat and miss out on players with higher grades to let the board come to you (or miss out on players of need with similar grades)?

 

For me, I trust Beane and co. in these later rounds.  Stay pat if it makes no difference. Package your sixths and sevenths to get guys you think are going to be better or play a position of need.

 

I do too.  I guess my counter to that point is, if they are good at evaluating the later round talent, wouldn't getting more of them

increase the odds of guys that could outperform their drafting round.

 

Maybe I'm confused as to how much Beane moves around in the later rounds.  I know he uses these picks to move in Day 1 and 2, but

has he been moving around a lot in Day 3, or just generally staying where the picks come up on their own?

[blitzboy54]

There definitely is. I suspect bean will try to get back into the 3rd round. So maybe 9-10 picks. 

[pennstate10]

As of now, bills have 2 picks in first 3 rounds. I see Beane trying to get back into the third, probably by packaging lower round picks. 

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I do too.  I guess my counter to that point is, if they are good at evaluating the later round talent, wouldn't getting more of them

increase the odds of guys that could outperform their drafting round.

 

Maybe I'm confused as to how much Beane moves around in the later rounds.  I know he uses these picks to move in Day 1 and 2, but

has he been moving around a lot in Day 3, or just generally staying where the picks come up on their own?

the unfortunate answer is… it depends.

 

Do you think 1 of 2 sixth round graded players have a better chance of succeeding than 1 5th round graded player? 
 

I don’t know. You also have to consider position groups and need. A 5th round graded safety is more likely to make the team than some other positions, all things being equal.
 

I think you trust your internal scouting process and get the guys you think will be the best. If they can get a fifth round safety instead of a sixth round graded RB or LB, I think you pull the trigger. 
 

To answer your other question, sometimes we trade up, sometimes we trade back. Shakir was a trade up (5 and 6 for an earlier 5), for example. That’s a good example of targeting the talent over the extra picks.

Edited March 17 by FireChans

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

As of now, bills have 2 picks in first 3 rounds. I see Beane trying to get back into the third, probably by packaging lower round picks. 

 

Exactly what I was thinking.  Many have been saying that.  The thing is using the new Trade Value Chart you have to bundle A LOT

of those Day 3 picks to get from 128 (Bills top 4th round pick) into the mid 90's.  I figure it takes that 4th and 2 5th to make that move.

You also have to find a partner to do it.

 

So, once again, my new counterargument is on the odds that the picks given up COULD be worth more drafting guys than using them

on the chance of that one 3rd rounder hitting.

 

I'm in no way saying to do what I said, just getting feedback.  Thanks for yours!

[Rockinon]

If the WR they want isn't there in the 1st, they could trade down and perhaps pick up a 3rd. I can't help thinking there will be an early run on WRs.

[BBFL]

5 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

If the WR they want isn't there in the 1st, they could trade down and perhaps pick up a 3rd. I can't help thinking there will be an early run on WRs.

Agree on all accounts. 
 

I can’t see any of those premier X receivers lasting until 28. 
 

The ones that are more realistic of the top group; Mitchell & Thomas Jr. are probably gone. 
 

Trade back and picking up a 3rd rounder is indeed probably the smartest play. 

In saying that, there will be a quality defensive player to fall a little if that’s the drafting scenario ahead… So they likely take the value there if they like them. 

[ColoradoBills]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

the unfortunate answer is… it depends.

 

Do you think 1 of 2 sixth round graded players have a better chance of succeeding than 1 5th round graded player? 
 

I don’t know. You also have to consider position groups and need. A 5th round graded safety is more likely to make the team than some other positions, all things being equal.
 

I think you trust your internal scouting process and get the guys you think will be the best. If they can get a fifth round safety instead of a sixth round graded RB or LB, I think you pull the trigger. 
 

To answer your other question, sometimes we trade up, sometimes we trade back. Shakir was a trade up (5 and 6 for an earlier 5), for example. That’s a good example of targeting the talent over the extra picks.

 

Good post.  Generally, in the past, Beane has gone into the draft with a lot of lower-level vet guys to fill depth holes.  Many for double rookie

wage scales and most on 1-year contracts.  Just wondering if this year he might steer a bit of a different path.

 

My hope is he doesn't feel the need to use these late round picks to get his 1st and 2nd rounder.  Then I guess he has more options

on Day 3.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I dont see roster spots for 10 or 11 guys after the moves he has already made. 

1 RB

1 WR

1 OL

2 DL

1 LB

1 CB

1 S

1 P

 

If I stretch it I can get to 9 and that is taking a punter. Now if they cut Gilliam and want to add another TE or 2 RBs you might get to ten.

Add the fact an UDFA is no worse than a 7th round pick and my guess is he makes a max of 8 picks.

He will burn the others moving around.

If there is not an impact player at 28 he should drop back and get an additional day 2 pick.  Maybe even try to get an additional day 2 pick next year. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

17 minutes ago, BBFL said:

Agree on all accounts. 
 

I can’t see any of those premier X receivers lasting until 28. 
 

The ones that are more realistic of the top group; Mitchell & Thomas Jr. are probably gone. 
 

Trade back and picking up a 3rd rounder is indeed probably the smartest play. 

In saying that, there will be a quality defensive player to fall a little if that’s the drafting scenario ahead… So they likely take the value there if they like them. 

Is there an impact starting DL at or below 28?  If not get the WR.  And so far I don't trust Beanes scouting of DL.  

 

Move up and take a closer to sure fire thing at WR.

Edited March 17 by SoonerBillsFan

[gonzo1105]

I think they will use 8 to 9 this year that will make the roster 

[ColoradoBills]

8 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I dont see roster spots for 10 or 11 guys after the moves he has already made. 

1 RB

1 WR

1 OL

2 DL

1 LB

1 CB

1 S

1 P

 

If I stretch it I can get to 9 and that is taking a punter. Now if they cut Gilliam and want to add another TE or 2 RBs you might get to ten.

Add the fact an UDFA is no worse than a 7th round pick and my guess is he makes a max of 8 picks.

He will burn the others moving around.

If there is not an impact player at 28 he should drop back and get an additional day 2 pick.  Maybe even try to get an additional day 2 pick next year. 

 

I came into this idea with the assumption that if a lot of Day 3 picks are made that a few will not pan out.  It's the "odds" thing.

With some luck the guys that don't make it can battle with the UDFA and cheap vets for the PS.

 

I could make the point again that guys like Doyle and Hamlin can be upgraded with a rookie, so that opens up more 53 spots.

A punter in the mix would definitely be in the works.

[billsfan714]

I for sure think there is.  The guys who don't make the 53 go on the practice squad and as last year showed injuries happen and depth is important.   Wish Beane would let the draft come to him.   This team needs more guys on rookie 4 year deals.

3 DL

2 CBs

2 possibly 3 safeties

1 WR

1 RB

2 OL

[BBFL]

15 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Is there an impact starting DL at or below 28?  If not get the WR.  And so far I don't trust Beanes scouting of DL.  

 

Move up and take a closer to sure fire thing at WR.

Let’s hope they do. Think the majority of the FB wants that to happen. 

[ColoradoBills]

15 minutes ago, billsfan714 said:

I for sure think there is.  The guys who don't make the 53 go on the practice squad and as last year showed injuries happen and depth is important.   Wish Beane would let the draft come to him.   This team needs more guys on rookie 4 year deals.

3 DL

2 CBs

2 possibly 3 safeties

1 WR

1 RB

2 OL

 

I had no problem with Beane moving around in the past.  I'm just compromising and thinking he should try to let the draft come to him a

little bit more this year.  Get a couple more of the late rounders and hope they hit.  

 

As to the rookie deals, IF they are good enough for depth, the 4-year contracts save a lot of cash compared to the $1.7M vet depth on

one-year contracts.

[LabattBlue]

The number of open roster spots shouldn’t matter.  For every player they draft, one might end up being the diamond in the rough.  I would keep as many of the picks as possible…not trade them away to move up a few spots on Day 3.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I came into this idea with the assumption that if a lot of Day 3 picks are made that a few will not pan out.  It's the "odds" thing.

With some luck the guys that don't make it can battle with the UDFA and cheap vets for the PS.

 

I could make the point again that guys like Doyle and Hamlin can be upgraded with a rookie, so that opens up more 53 spots.

A punter in the mix would definitely be in the works.

I agree some will not pan out. I just think there is a better chance some UDFA or two will make the team and he will use some of these picks to move around on day 2 and 3

[juno999]

Beane will most likely trade around a bit within later rounds to get a guy he covets.  Also I can see him trading up into the 3rd rd.  Bills have not had much luck stashing draft picks on the PS.  The last few drafts, these picks have been claimed off waivers.  I can see 6 - 8 actual drafted players by the Bills.  Getting back into the 3rd round might be a little tricky and cost a few picks.

[Mr. WEO]

9 of 11 are day 3 picks.  4 are 6th/7th round.

 

What's the move up value?

[NickelCity]

I see incremental moves with the later round pics to target guys in the 4th and lower rounds. 

 

I think he'd like to move back to the early second round to get a 3rd round draft pick, but we won't know unless a partner emerges. 

[finn]

5 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

As of now, bills have 2 picks in first 3 rounds. I see Beane trying to get back into the third, probably by packaging lower round picks. 

What about trading down to pick up another second and third? They still might be able to pick up a good WR since the draft is deep there, and they'd have two more high picks. With needs at DE, DT, and S in addition to WR and depth on the offensive line, those two picks would be welcome. The top four or five WRs will be gone, but Mitchell, Franklin, or one of the two Xaviers might still be there in the second. 

 

Put it this way, would you rather have 1. Brian Thomas or 2. Keon Coleman AND a top safety AND a decent DT?

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

There is a lot of speculation of Beane using a number of picks to move around the board this season.

He has done that in the past, so the premise has legs.

 

On the other hand, Beane has never been in this situation needing some help in a number of areas while needing to get younger AND

controlling he cap going forward.  Lots of depth penciled in that could be improved on.  I look at the Hamlin's/Doyle's as examples.   

 

After the first 2 rounds (my personal hope is WR with 1 early pick and DL or S with the other), the remaining 9 are from the late 4th on.

Beane and his boys have found some decent players in these rounds, BUT the odds stack against you.

 

Could doubling up on Safety picks (if not in the 2nd) and OL/DL along with single picks of RB/CB/P have any advantage?

I know it's a risk, but everything has risk.

 

I just keep wondering if this approach has any merit.

 

 

I don't think so.  The Bills are never going to carry all the guys they could draft, so they'll push them to practice squad where they'll get pick off by weaker teams.  

 

Beane loves to move up to get guys the Bills thought would be gone much earlier.   I expect that twice in the draft he'll package one or two picks to move up to get a guy they really like.  He'll come out of the draft with seven guys, eight maximum.  

[The Jokeman]

5 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

There is a lot of speculation of Beane using a number of picks to move around the board this season.

He has done that in the past, so the premise has legs.

 

On the other hand, Beane has never been in this situation needing some help in a number of areas while needing to get younger AND

controlling he cap going forward.  Lots of depth penciled in that could be improved on.  I look at the Hamlin's/Doyle's as examples.   

 

After the first 2 rounds (my personal hope is WR with 1 early pick and DL or S with the other), the remaining 9 are from the late 4th on.

Beane and his boys have found some decent players in these rounds, BUT the odds stack against you.

 

Could doubling up on Safety picks (if not in the 2nd) and OL/DL along with single picks of RB/CB/P have any advantage?

I know it's a risk, but everything has risk.

 

I just keep wondering if this approach has any merit.

 

 

I have no issues if we double up on Safety as of course we have questions whether Rapp can start and honestly have no depth at the position as the roster stands now unless we want to include Cam Lewis who I feel better served as a CB. I also feel doubling up on DL logical with Rousseau and Miller being long term questions and little to no depth at DT.  I would also welcome adding a CB as the long term status of Douglas and Elam are questionable at best toss in many CBs can also contribute in sub packages or even be used in the return game. While a RB or WR could also fill this role but to me we need more size in those positions and while I like Legette as a KR am unsure he has what it takes to be a PR. 

 

I mean if you look at our recent draft history under Beane late round picks like Nick Broeker, Alex Austin, Jack Anderson, Kevon Seymore and Ray-Ray Mcloud are still contributing in the NFL which merits drafting as many guys as possible to fill holes in depth. 

 

 

[KDIGGZ]

When you draft a bunch of guys with veterans ahead of them what you get is a Wyatt Teller situation where you don't give the kid a fair shot and then another team gets them for free. Happened last year with Austin our 6th or 7th rounder, not that he's a pro bowler or anything but he started for the Pats at a position we now need help at. Oops!

 

Trade up and get guys that actually have a shot at making the team!

[jwhit34]

Actually, yes. Here's my rationale:

• The Bills currently have 58 players under contract.
• 15 "Cuttable" players: 1 punter (Martin or Haack), McKitty, Buechele, Kyron Brown, Isabella, Cline, Shorter, Davidson, Gouriage, Jarvis, Shavers, Thompson, Williamson, Hamler, D. Evans
• That takes them to 43
• Other potential cuts include Tommy Doyle and Damar Hamlin
• They will probably sign a couple more free agents.
• Not all 11 picks make it but at least theoretically a draft pick will be better than an UFA.
• Maybe a late round pick or 2 make it back to the practice squad.
• If they draft a punter both Martin and Haack can go.

There's a good chance all picks rounds 1-5 make it, that's 7 of the 11. With 3 6ths maybe 1-2 make the 53.

 

[Richard Noggin]

8 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I dont see roster spots for 10 or 11 guys after the moves he has already made. 

1 RB

1 WR

1 OL

2 DL

1 LB

1 CB

1 S

1 P

 

If I stretch it I can get to 9 and that is taking a punter. Now if they cut Gilliam and want to add another TE or 2 RBs you might get to ten.

Add the fact an UDFA is no worse than a 7th round pick and my guess is he makes a max of 8 picks.

He will burn the others moving around.

If there is not an impact player at 28 he should drop back and get an additional day 2 pick.  Maybe even try to get an additional day 2 pick next year. 

 

On one hand I generally agree that this kind of distribution makes sense IF the Bills aren't eager to upgrade some of the existing position group pipelines.

 

However, I'd like to suggest that the Bills could/should consider upgrading the talent pool at RB, WR, OL, DL, CB, and S. The roster can DEFINITELY benefit from adding two safety prospects, potentially bumping Monsieur Hamlin. The presumed starting LG is not beyond challenge, nor is Alec Anderson's hold on backup/flex IOL. Tommy Doyle and Ryan Van Demark are not necessarily unimpeachable as OT depth/prospects. And while the Bills should 100% add a #2 RB prospect, they could also replace Johnson as well (I see better ways to spend draft capital, for sure, but who knows). DT arguably NEEDS 2 guys, and DE arguably needs 1. LB to me is our best pipeline, given the youth and promise of Bernard, Williams, and Spector (and of course Milano maybe the most impactful LB in the league when healthy). 

 

Then of course there is WR. 

[Thurman#1]

There absolutely is an argument. Either way.

 

For keeping the picks, we've had 5ths, 6ths and 7ths stick and contribute. But we've also lost some guys worth keeping and developing because of a lack of space.

 

This year there is more space on the roster than usual, the cap-driven massacre was wider than it usually is. Since more guys means a larger likelihood of finding a guy who can contribute, it's certainly a legit argument.

[Richard Noggin]

3 hours ago, finn said:

What about trading down to pick up another second and third? They still might be able to pick up a good WR since the draft is deep there, and they'd have two more high picks. With needs at DE, DT, and S in addition to WR and depth on the offensive line, those two picks would be welcome. The top four or five WRs will be gone, but Mitchell, Franklin, or one of the two Xaviers might still be there in the second. 

 

Put it this way, would you rather have 1. Brian Thomas or 2. Keon Coleman AND a top safety AND a decent DT?

 

The calculus here is compelling in that not every top prospect pans out in the league, obviously. So typically MORE shots at it is better. While in your hypothetical, Thomas has the traits and production/pedigree of a blue-chipper, Keon Coleman is intriguing enough to warrant consideration with the additional value behind him. I've begun to fancy Coleman recently, alongside Mitchell and Worthy, as options at 28. It's more interesting the more I think about it. 

[Thurman#1]

10 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

On one hand I generally agree that this kind of distribution makes sense IF the Bills aren't eager to upgrade some of the existing position group pipelines.

 

However, I'd like to suggest that the Bills could/should consider upgrading the talent pool at RB, WR, OL, DL, CB, and S. The roster can DEFINITELY benefit from adding two safety prospects, potentially bumping Monsieur Hamlin. The presumed starting LG is not beyond challenge, nor is Alec Anderson's hold on backup/flex IOL. Tommy Doyle and Ryan Van Demark are not necessarily unimpeachable as OT depth/prospects. And while the Bills should 100% add a #2 RB prospect, they could also replace Johnson as well (I see better ways to spend draft capital, for sure, but who knows). DT arguably NEEDS 2 guys, and DE arguably needs 1. LB to me is our best pipeline, given the youth and promise of Bernard, Williams, and Spector (and of course Milano maybe the most impactful LB in the league when healthy). 

 

Then of course there is WR. 

 

 

 

Yeah, I'm with you. I see more than 15 guys as "cuttable." More like 19 or 20. And there are always a few surprise cuts above that threshold as well. Also a few surprise FAs that step up and make themselves more valuable than we think. 

 

 

[HappyDays]

The argument is that as Allen's cap hits grow larger, every bit of cap savings is welcome. Phasing out players like Rapp and Lewis and Hollins for day three rookie contracts is a lot more valuable than it gets credit for. All those special teams specialists that we pay decent money to, try and find those types of players late in the draft. The cap savings adds up and suddenly we can afford Curtis Samuel AND Arik Armstead instead of choosing between them.

 

Edited March 18 by HappyDays

[Aussie Joe]

6 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

9 of 11 are day 3 picks.  4 are 6th/7th round.

 

What's the move up value?

Not much …

 

I would like a third round pick … but this will cost them both fours and a five …  leaving them with mostly leftovers .

 

Not sure if it’s better option to throw multiple darts at the board hoping you get lucky  , or pool them together and still end up with a risky/ could go either way Pick 95 

[T master]

I wouldn't mind if Beane got a package together to move up into the 3rd round seeing as they don't have 1 this year and have them get say 9 players maybe, I was really hoping & Beane probably was too to get a 3rd for Edmunds which i feel they got screwed out of but got to make chicken soup out of chicken S**T this year i guess .

 

I have all the confidence that Beane will get er done !! 

[skibum]

No, too many of those picks are low-rounders that aren't likely to turn into NFL players. Beane should do everything possible to trade up into the 4th/5th round at least, but who knows if there will be opportunities for that anyway. 

[ColoradoBills]

13 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

9 of 11 are day 3 picks.  4 are 6th/7th round.

 

What's the move up value?

 

That is what made me start the thread.

 

At first, I thought Beane could bundle some of those to get back into the 3rd.  When I looked at the new trade value chart it just

didn't make a lot of sense.  Those 5ths, 6ths and 7th don't get you much when his first Day 3 pick is a low 4th.

 

I started to think, just pick guys and hope you hit on a few.

[Kwai San]

19 hours ago, RobbRiddick said:

I think he'll definitely package some of them to move up but I hope we pick plenty of defense, especially LB and DBs in the later rounds. McD and his staff are great at finding diamonds in the rough who have skill sets that match what they do in this D.

 

I'd like the early rounds to be offense but later rounds I'm happy for them to stockpile some defensive depth

 

I would like to agree with this but my gawd what a mess they made of the Elam pick!!  I understand that it wasn't a late rounder but being that early it should have been easier to shine that Diamond up.  Not harder!!!

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

10 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

Actually, yes. Here's my rationale:

• The Bills currently have 58 players under contract.
• 15 "Cuttable" players: 1 punter (Martin or Haack), McKitty, Buechele, Kyron Brown, Isabella, Cline, Shorter, Davidson, Gouriage, Jarvis, Shavers, Thompson, Williamson, Hamler, D. Evans
• That takes them to 43
• Other potential cuts include Tommy Doyle and Damar Hamlin
• They will probably sign a couple more free agents.
• Not all 11 picks make it but at least theoretically a draft pick will be better than an UFA.
• Maybe a late round pick or 2 make it back to the practice squad.
• If they draft a punter both Martin and Haack can go.

There's a good chance all picks rounds 1-5 make it, that's 7 of the 11. With 3 6ths maybe 1-2 make the 53.

 

 

UDFAs and Late draft picks are usually a little cheaper than a UFA.

 

However... Buffalo is in that contender status where you just figure out the dollars and put the best guys on the roster.  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

No, only because I’d like to package a few picks to get into round 3 again.

 

Future WR, FS, NT, CB4, RB3, OG4

 

QB, TE, OT, C, SS, SLCB, LB, and K/P we are good. 

They’ll still at some 1.7m dollar FAs also.