FA signings of Samuel and Hollins impact on the WR draft strategy?

[Herc11]

I think regardless of these signings we still need a WR to replace Diggs and this the draft to do it. This may be Diggs' last year with us.

 

What we do to get that WR? I think it's a fluid situation depending on how the draft is falling whether we stay put or move up. I'm sure they have their targets for who they are willing to trade up for if that person falls a bit to us. Maybe we get lucky and someone falls to us at 28 that the really like. 

 

[CaptnCoke11]

Take the highest ranked prospect on their board at a position of need.  

1 minute ago, Herc11 said:

I think regardless of these signings we still need a WR to replace Diggs and this the draft to do it. This may be Diggs' last year with us.

 

What we do to get that WR? I think it's a fluid situation depending on how the draft is falling whether we stay put or move up. I'm sure they have their targets for who they are willing to trade up for if that person falls a bit to us. Maybe we get lucky and someone falls to us at 28 that the really like. 

 

Unless they trade pretty far up there isn’t going to be a WR at 28 worth the pick.  At that point it will be the 7th-9th best receiver.  

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, qwksilver said:

The WR room needs an upgrade and who knows what will happen with Diggs. Easy decision unless draft falls a different way.

Yup, the strategy is to keep drafting wrs. Hollins could flame out like Sherfield?  Shorter could be another Hodgins?  Diggs shelf life is 2 years or less.  I'm all for drafting wr @ 28 or slide up a few slots if Thomas/ Mitchell are there.  And draft another wr day 3.

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Yup, the strategy is to keep drafting wrs. Hollins could flame out like Sherfield?  Shorter could be another Hodgins?  Diggs shelf life is 2 years or less.  I'm all for drafting wr @ 28 or slide up a few slots if Thomas/ Mitchell are there.  And draft another wr day 3.

I agree, although if we trade up then I think it’s doubtful we draft a 2nd WR unless the compensation used to move up has more to do with next years draft.  Just think we need too many pieces in this draft to fill holes to both trade some picks to move up for a WR and also take a 2nd WR.  Especially not having a 3rd rounder.  

[Clyde Smith]

I still say we double dip at Wr. Too much talent and potential not to. I believe Beane will maneuver back into the 3rd, a nice amount of wrs should still be available.

[NickelCity]

I think he's targeting a trade down to get more picks in the 2nd or 3rd. WR/S/DT my guess.

[PrimeTime101]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Ive seen some differing thoughts in a number of threads on what this means now for the draft.  So posting this poll to see how people see these signings impacting Beane's aggressiveness of adding a WR in the draft.  Beane has made no secret about our interest in taking a WR, so this doesn't change that, we are still drafting at least one WR in the draft.  

 

The questions now come down to when, how aggressive we will or won't be, etc.  We have now have youth below WR1 Diggs for a few years with Samuel, Shakir and Kincaid here (not counting Shorter until he shows he belongs in the league first).  So knowing Beane still is almost certainly taking a WR in this draft, how do you think it impacts Beane's approach to this draft in regards to the WR position now?

 

Day 2 round 2 I think is when they go WR.. I think to many players will creep up to us day one where we dont go WR.  While IOL does not look pretty... Having a top end OL has teeth... 

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

There are WRs that will go in round 2 this year that I think would be round 1 guys in other years.  
 

Im all for a trade back if we can’t get Thomas or Mitchell in the first (I wouldn’t pass those 2 up if we can get one).  Would love to pick up a third and still be able to get someone like McConkey, Leggette, Coleman, Franklin, Pearsall, etc and some defensive help all in the 2nd.  
 

I’m not married to any one outcome this year because I know how deep WR is for this draft.

I think Coleman is their guy. Drake London went 8th overall and I think they're pretty similar in size, speed and playmaking. Coleman has better RAC ability. 

[MJS]

Well, none of us know what his intention was before and now after the signings. But Beane likes to go into a draft without any positional emergencies, so he always fills holes as best he can in free agency, which allows him to target whatever players he wants in the draft.

 

So, I think his strategy at WR is the take one if he likes the value and likes the player at the time the Bills are picking, or to trade up and grab one if he particularly likes that player. Maybe that is in round one. Maybe not.

 

It's hard to have a set strategy anyways because you are contending with 31 other teams. You cannot predict what will happen with any level of certainty, so you have to be able to adapt and change plans.

[GunnerBill]

Personally I think everything that has happened in the last week makes it significantly less likely he trades up for a receiver and slightly less likely he drafts one at #28. 

 

I think #28 has gone from best receiver available to best player available between receiver, defensive line and safety.

[Doc Brown]

If I had to put money on it he's going either DE or OT if he stays at #28.  That might be where the value is.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I think Coleman is their guy. Drake London went 8th overall and I think they're pretty similar in size, speed and playmaking. Coleman has better RAC ability. 

 

I also think Coleman is a high probability, maybe even at 28.  He is a guy who is open when not open and would be a big weapon in tough weather game.

 

If we don't land Thomas or someone like that earlier, I would keep an eye on Coleman.

[Chicken Boo]

4 hours ago, BringBackFergy said:

Yeah. Absolutely. I hate being in the playoffs 5 of 6 years. 

 

Hooray for moral victories! 

 

The goal is to win Lombardis.  Catch up.

[Richard Noggin]

2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I think Coleman is their guy. Drake London went 8th overall and I think they're pretty similar in size, speed and playmaking. Coleman has better RAC ability. 

 

I know he's not generating a lot of mainstream buzz, due to poor 40 and limited college production...but I have a feeling Coleman could be a dude. That combine gauntlet performance, recording the top speed, might be a super interesting example of elite play speed versus bad testing speed. Many online are pointing to Puka Nacua's top gauntlet speed last year as a compelling parallel. (Coleman was a little faster ftr, and he's taller. He also ran 2nd fastest go route during drills -- but admittedly this metric is less controlled.)

 

I've often argued against Coleman's NFL projection based on generally poor translations of his recent college contested catch rate peers like Arcega-Whiteside, Quentin Johnson, N'Keal Harry, Mims, Marshall, etc. The question then becomes: was the prospect his QB's go-to guy and just gifted at high-pointing the ball and hauling it in under duress, or was he bad at creating separation?

 

My thinking is shifting to either Coleman or Mitchell at 28 IF they're even still available. Beane strikes me as a Worthy guy at 28 IF he's even available. That presents us with three legitimate prospects (of which at least one should still be available) to consider at 28 without sacrificing capital to move up.  Does anyone think all 7 will be gone by then? 

 

Edit: turns out Coleman also returned punts? 

Edited March 17 by Richard Noggin

[BringBackFergy]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Hooray for moral victories! 

 

The goal is to win Lombardis.  Catch up.

“I Want My Oompa Loompa NOW!”

[Freddie's Dead]

Trade up.  We been WR poor for too long.  Josh needs weapons.

[Radar]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Personally I think everything that has happened in the last week makes it significantly less likely he trades up for a receiver and slightly less likely he drafts one at #28. 

 

I think #28 has gone from best receiver available to best player available between receiver, defensive line and safety.

Agree except for safety. 

[gjv]

I'm hoping it's Beane's lucky 🍀 draft and he finds players that help win us the Super Bowl.

[OldTimer1960]

9 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Mitchell, I think, is the best attainable choice. The top 3 are out of reach, and Thomas would be way too expensive. (But if he falls a bit, yes, go get him.) After Mitchell, there's some drop off, you can argue how much. I like Legette more than most, but you can probably get him in the second. I wouldn't take Coleman in the first, but I'm okay in the second. Mitchell is the WR who if he hits is WR1 on a rookie contract for five years. And you might not need to make a ridiculous leap up to grab him. If I were Beane, I'm probably not waiting for KC or someone else to knife me in the back. Folks can cry all they want about Beane getting antsy, I'd trade up to fend off the wolves.

I think the list you laid out are the narrowed down candidates.  With the signing of Samuel, they filled a need for a proven vet with speed, but did nothing to add size and strength to play the boundary.  If they still want a bigger boundary guy it seems to me that there are only a few in this draft: Mitchell, Legette, Coleman and maybe you could add Polk to that list.  Later, they might consider Walker, Javon Baker or Brenden Rice.  
 

I suspect that the Samuel signing lowers the interest in smaller options like McConkey, Worthy, Franklin and Roman Wilson.  Some of them are very good prospects, but they lack the size that I would think they are after now.  I am not saying that they will completely rule out these guys, but rather I think they want to fill the “power forward” spot on their offense.  The counter to my point here is Miami who really only has 2 5’10” receivers in Hill and Waddle.  

[OldTimer1960]

10 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Until I know what's available at 28 all of these options are questionable. I mean as the roster stands now a DLineman looks like the biggest need outside of Safety but I don't see any Safety prospects with Round 1 grades. Also Hollis is 30 and in a 1 year deal. So if a WR falls to us at 28, I wouldn't pass on one unless a quality DT or DE is on the board. 

The DL depth and Safety position need to be addressed for sure.  If they don’t add at least a viable backup DT and a vet Safety who could start if he had to, then I think we will see trades made to allow them to add this and a WR.  Maybe it’s a trade down from 28 to get more ammo to trade up later or may it’s stand pat at 28, but move up in the 2nd or try to get back into the 3rd.

 

As the roster stands today, I don’t think they will want to leave day 2 without addressing WR, DT (or DE) and S - they don’t have 3 picks in day 1 and 2 and that is what I think they will try to do.  I mean it would be nice to leave day 2 with Legette or Mitchell (if they are satisfied that he isn’t a loafer) and maybe a candidate to start at S, but then you’re watching 69 players go before your next pick which would almost be forced to be a DL late in the 4th that will have to play a lot of snaps.

[OldTimer1960]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I also think Coleman is a high probability, maybe even at 28.  He is a guy who is open when not open and would be a big weapon in tough weather game.

 

If we don't land Thomas or someone like that earlier, I would keep an eye on Coleman.

I don’t know about Coleman.  I’m not the “he has to run 4.4 to be good” guy, but Coleman’s speed is pretty questionable for round 1 and while he is smooth, he lacks the lateral quickness to really shake coverage - of course those are just my unqualified opinions.

[Kaenon]

Well, Samuel and Hollins are an upgrade over Sherfield and Harty, who were both lost.

We also lost Gabe Davis, so we still need another WR.

So it'll either be a round 1 or round 2 wide out for us.

 

We'll see how the early to mid-round 1 shakes out before we have a better idea of what we're doing!

[nosejob]

I don't think we'll have a shot at Thomas...too far, too much. I can also see K.C. jumping us big for Mitchell. In that case, I would hope BB would consider.....

Trade 28  35/71 for Legette.  If Chop or D.R. fall to 28 AZ. may wanna do that deal.

 

Trade next years 1st to GB for 41/88.  41 T'vondre Sweat.

 

Pick 60 Devontez Walker

 

Pick 71 Jonah Ellis  EDGE

 

Pick 88 Cole Bishop S

 

After that IDK  Would like Maason Smith somewhere.

 

Edit: Just ran across Syracuse.com mock draft for the Bills and found it interesting.

Edited March 17 by nosejob

[NoSaint]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Personally I think everything that has happened in the last week makes it significantly less likely he trades up for a receiver and slightly less likely he drafts one at #28. 

 

I think #28 has gone from best receiver available to best player available between receiver, defensive line and safety.

I’ll be so mad if the take a safety in the first instead of a wr. The difference in cap savings compared to an above average free agent at each position is massive

[Dr. Who]

25 minutes ago, nosejob said:

I don't think we'll have a shot at Thomas...too far, too much. I can also see K.C. jumping us big for Mitchell. In that case, I would hope BB would consider.....

Trade 28  35/71 for Legette.  If Chop or D.R. fall to 28 AZ. may wanna do that deal.

 

Trade next years 1st to GB for 41/88.  41 T'vondre Sweat.

 

Pick 60 Devontez Walker

 

Pick 71 Jonah Ellis  EDGE

 

Pick 88 Cole Bishop S

 

After that IDK  Would like Maason Smith somewhere.

 

Edit: Just ran across Syracuse.com mock draft for the Bills and found it interesting.

I can see Beane anticipating KC jumping us, and moving up to fend it off. Plan B is okay by me if they land Legette, but it ought to be plan B.

[TheBeaneBandit]

29 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I’ll be so mad if the take a safety in the first instead of a wr. The difference in cap savings compared to an above average free agent at each position is massive

I would absolutely choose violence 😂😆😂

[Saint Doug]

It’s still going to be BPA, but they need to be a WR or DB. 

[CNYfan]

I prefer Newton to Coleman or Worthy if it comes to that

[OldTimer1960]

46 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I can see Beane anticipating KC jumping us, and moving up to fend it off. Plan B is okay by me if they land Legette, but it ought to be plan B.

Do you still think KC wants to jump the Bills now that they have signed Marquise Brown?  I would say that would take them out of that mindset, but of course I don’t know that.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

I’ll be so mad if the take a safety in the first instead of a wr. The difference in cap savings compared to an above average free agent at each position is massive

 

Yea I am not advocating for a safety. And I think the fact the class is weak at the top probably means they won't go that way. I just don't rule it out if they see Cooper as a safety rather than a corner and he is still there.

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Do you still think KC wants to jump the Bills now that they have signed Marquise Brown?  I would say that would take them out of that mindset, but of course I don’t know that.

They might shift emphasis to the Oline, that would make sense, and there could be value there. But just as I don't think signing Samuel means WR is no longer a need for the Bills, I don't take signing Brown as automatically ruling out WR as both a need and a likely possibility for the Chiefs. I don't believe Beane can trust them to stay put, and I just would presume they will move up if the WR they want is within striking range.

 

There's still calculation and speculation involved, and you could get it wrong. The poker analogies aren't inapt. Maybe KC wants Worthy, and waits it out, for instance. Beane could move up for nothing, though most teams will probably surmise WR is a target for us, and so multiple teams might consider getting ahead of us if the right player is coveted. For me, it's Thomas and Mitchell that are the fellas you think about. If you want someone else, stay put or even trade back into the early second. 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

I think Beane will get a WR and DE in first two rounds.  The order will depend on who is available.  Day three will probably be safety, d-tackle, and interior o-line.  I think that many of us have a much higher opinion on most of the WR's in the draft than the Bills do.  It might be a case of the top three being really good and a large number of the rest being significantly less talented.  The bust rate on highly drafted WR's seems high to me.

[HaldimandBills]

Guys let's not over think this.

 

Beane is going receiver Round 1 unless he gets a haul of picks that allows him to trade back and take a top ranked receiver early in round 2. 

 

Hollins replaces Sherfield and Samuel replaces Hardy. Still no Gabe replacement on the roster. 

 

Beane isn't dumb. Bills accumulated multiple injuries last year and I believe a big part of it was because the Bills were scratching and clawing all season in every game due to the offense inability to put teams away early. The Bills lack of offensive talent was glaring and it became obvious when Gabe went down and we had to start Sherfield. 

 

The defense is what it is. They haven't been able to stop a nose bleed regardless of who the Bills have put out there. Beane has spent all this money on the dline and secondary and all its amounted to is Mahomes and Burrow marching up and down the field on the Bills in the playoffs. 

 

Well if the Bills are going to be marched on regardless why not try out young talent who typically stay healthier over the stretch of a long season and see if they can band together and play better come playoff time? 

 

Meanwhile on offense why not actually load it up and put pressure on other teams forcing their offenses to be one dimensional giving our defense easier looks? 

 

It is time we became a five threat offense. Good at running the ball. Good tight ends. Drafting one of these deep threat studs in Round 1 putting pressure on teams with the deep ball. Having Diggs, Samuel, Kincaid and Shakir for intermediate, short, and bubble routes. Then of course still have Josh Allen scrambling ability. 

 

Oline is finally not a bag of trash with the emergence of Torrence, Brown, and McGovern to go with Dawkins. 

 

Good things are coming. Bills offense is going  to go to another level. Just need that deep threat round 1 receiver and another big body rb who doesn't fade down the stretch. 

[OldTimer1960]

11 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

They might shift emphasis to the Oline, that would make sense, and there could be value there. But just as I don't think signing Samuel means WR is no longer a need for the Bills, I don't take signing Brown as automatically ruling out WR as both a need and a likely possibility for the Chiefs. I don't believe Beane can trust them to stay put, and I just would presume they will move up if the WR they want is within striking range.

 

There's still calculation and speculation involved, and you could get it wrong. The poker analogies aren't inapt. Maybe KC wants Worthy, and waits it out, for instance. Beane could move up for nothing, though most teams will probably surmise WR is a target for us, and so multiple teams might consider getting ahead of us if the right player is coveted. For me, it's Thomas and Mitchell that are the fellas you think about. If you want someone else, stay put or even trade back into the early second. 

That could all be right, but I wonder if we as a fan base have come to be overly obsessed with WR.  KC has Rashee Rice who had a nice rookie year and just signed Brown.  They still have TE Kelce who was dominant in the playoffs.  You could be right that they will load up at WR, but if I were them, I’d fortify another position.  I think the Bills’ position is a bit different in that Diggs might be on the decline, whereas Rice and Brown are both young and Kelce could be near the end, but did not look like that when it counted last year.

[Chicken Boo]

7 hours ago, BringBackFergy said:

“I Want My Oompa Loompa NOW!”

 

If you don't have anything of substance to add, don't quote me.

[richardb1952]

55 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

That could all be right, but I wonder if we as a fan base have come to be overly obsessed with WR.  KC has Rashee Rice who had a nice rookie year and just signed Brown.  They still have TE Kelce who was dominant in the playoffs.  You could be right that they will load up at WR, but if I were them, I’d fortify another position.  I think the Bills’ position is a bit different in that Diggs might be on the decline, whereas Rice and Brown are both young and Kelce could be near the end, but did not look like that when it counted last year.

 

I would think Ladd McConkey would be a great choice for KC, whereas I feel Bills need a WR like Mitchell or Thomas Jr to really take the top off from opposing defenses.  McConkey in slot with Mahomes would be brutal.  Mitchell with Allen would really open the whole field for Bills.   

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, richardb1952 said:

 

I would think Ladd McConkey would be a great choice for KC, whereas I feel Bills need a WR like Mitchell or Thomas Jr to really take the top off from opposing defenses.  McConkey in slot with Mahomes would be brutal.  Mitchell with Allen would really open the whole field for Bills.   

I loved watching tape of McConkey - great route runner who is really fun to watch.  But, would he not be operating in mostly the same space that Kelce does?  Now, I could see them drafting him with an eye towards 2025 when Kelce has probably retired.

 

It’s tons of fun to discuss these scenarios!

 

[Big Blitz]

Center.  I think the top 2 are elite - I don’t know with certainty what WR 7 does for us.  
 

I do know an elite Center makes the entire offense especially Allen better.   

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

That could all be right, but I wonder if we as a fan base have come to be overly obsessed with WR.  KC has Rashee Rice who had a nice rookie year and just signed Brown.  They still have TE Kelce who was dominant in the playoffs.  You could be right that they will load up at WR, but if I were them, I’d fortify another position.  I think the Bills’ position is a bit different in that Diggs might be on the decline, whereas Rice and Brown are both young and Kelce could be near the end, but did not look like that when it counted last year.

I wouldn't trade up just because of KC, even though they are a significant rival in the Conference. You'll have to trade up to get Thomas, imo. You might be able to wait it out for Mitchell, but I think there's a drop off after him. I like Legette. Some might like Coleman. You could wait on them or go for Rice or Walker later. This is all assuming your target is a big X type receiver. The larger point is that I surmise if you want one of the round 1 WRs and you are sitting at #28, folks will know, and act to get ahead of you if the player is sufficiently prized.

 

You can always gamble, or if there are enough players at a position that you value more-or-less the same, just pick whose there. 

[Don Otreply]

As the WR room stands right now, it is average even with Diggs, we really should get as close to a WR 1b as we can in the draft at 28, we need to stop short changing the offense in this regard.