Mikie2times Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I knew our defense in the playoffs was bad, but I didn't realize it was at this level of bad. These are our DVOA rankings since 2020, which are all above average with 2021 and 2022 being elite. 2020: 11th 2021: 2nd 2022: 1st 2023: 12th This is EPA allowed in our playoff losses along with the EPA each of these teams posted in other playoff games that same year. I included how that EPA ranked on the season for that team. Kansas City 2023: vs Buffalo, 11.85 EPA 5th best on the season Other playoff games that year: Miami EPA 9.58, 7th best Bengals 2022: vs Buffalo, 22.03 EPA, 3rd best on the season Other Playoff games that year: KC 4.06 EPA 10th best, Ravens .7 EPA 16th best Kansas City 2021: vs Buffalo, 32.62 EPA, 3rd best on the season Other playoff games that year: Steelers 16.09 EPA, 9th best, Bengals 11.28 EPA 12th best Kansas City 2020: Vs Buffalo, 30.34 1st best on the season Other playoff games that year: Browns 19.09 EPA 9th best, Tampa Bay: -7.90 EPA 19th best For context, Kansas City has not had an EPA in the 20's in a playoff game one time since 2020 but they have had 2 games vs us in the 30's. The Bengals have not had a offensive EPA over 10 in any playoff game in the Burrow era but they had one in the 20's against us. It's not just that we underperform, it's that we allow historically excellent performances from these teams with a defense that rates either above average or far above average in the regular season. 2 2 2 1 7 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChanticleerBillsFan Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 That’s what our eyes have been telling us, it’s good to have some context. 🙏 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Outside of injuries this year it is hard to understand just how badly the D falls off in the playoffs. Some of the talking head shows postulate that the length of the season hits “aged” players harder. The Bills D is not a youth movement. Who knows maybe there is something to this thought. 2 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bermuda Triangle Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Been told over and over on this forum that the offense has been at fault for playoff losses, including last week. Guess those people probably won't respond in this thread. 4 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherMan Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 This is reason alone to $h1t can your defensive HC. 2 8 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 matches the playoff performance of the DC/HC...... 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 23 minutes ago, Mikie2times said: I knew our defense in the playoffs was bad, but I didn't realize it was at this level of bad. These are our DVOA rankings since 2020, which are all above average with 2021 and 2022 being elite. 2020: 11th 2021: 2nd 2022: 1st 2023: 12th This is EPA allowed in our playoff losses along with the EPA each of these teams posted in other playoff games that same year. I included how that EPA ranked on the season for that team. Kansas City 2023: vs Buffalo, 11.85 EPA 5th best on the season Other playoff games that year: Miami EPA 9.58, 7th best Bengals 2022: vs Buffalo, 22.03 EPA, 3rd best on the season Other Playoff games that year: KC 4.06 EPA 10th best, Ravens .7 EPA 16th best Kansas City 2021: vs Buffalo, 32.62 EPA, 3rd best on the season Other playoff games that year: Steelers 16.09 EPA, 9th best, Bengals 11.28 EPA 12th best Kansas City 2020: Vs Buffalo, 30.34 1st best on the season Other playoff games that year: Browns 19.09 EPA 9th best, Tampa Bay: -7.90 EPA 19th best For context, Kansas City has not had an EPA in the 20's in a playoff game one time since 2020 but they have had 2 games vs us in the 30's. The Bengals have not had an offensive EPA over 10 in any playoff game in the Burrow era but they had one in the 20's against us. It's not just that we underperform, it's that we allow historically excellent performances from these teams with a defense that rates either above average or far above average in the regular season. Why don’t you include playoffs on a whole instead of losses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo ill Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Is dvoa related to dvda? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 Just now, FireChans said: Why don’t you include playoffs on a whole instead of losses In 2020, the Colts had the 3rd best EPA of the year vs us. I guess it doesn't really matter to me that we trounced on gadget offense with Lamar, beat Skyler Thompson, then Mason Rudolph. It's kind of funny that matters to you. But that would round out the rest of the numbers. 3 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_Cheney Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 There are only two possible reasons for this. Historically bad luck with key defensive injuries, or coaching. The answer could honestly be both of them. Luck evens out over a long enough time frame, but so many other things also change during that time frame that it might not be enough to get over our current Division Round hump, let alone win a Super Bowl. First priority is obviously managing our cap situation. Then I think that if by the trade deadline we are in contention for the #1 seed, I think we have to go all out in trying to get it. Sell the farm and take the risk. It's unfortunately obvious at this point that Beane could have been significantly more aggressive this past year at the deadline and acquired at least another receiver, and while that wouldn't have resolved our defensive woes, it's entirely possible it would have been enough to overcome them. If we had grabbed DHop or maybe even Henry, I think it's fair to say that we probably wouldn't have been screaming about dudes dropping balls the entire second half of the season. It's so damn frustrating to feel like between ownership, coaching, and player management there is always some aspect of this organization holding back and not willing to go balls to the wall to do absolutely ***** everything possible to win a championship. I can only hope that the pain and disappointment of this year has turned those gears a little bit more for Beane and McDermott. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBFL Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 14 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said: Been told over and over on this forum that the offense has been at fault for playoff losses, including last week. Guess those people probably won't respond in this thread. I think the majority of people claim the offense is at fault because we know what they are capable of and have underperformed. No one is relying on the defense to win the game. Big difference. It’s been a consistent theme of guys not showing up except Josh… 🤷♂️ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ya Digg? Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Mikie2times said: In 2020, the Colts had the 3rd best EPA of the year vs us. I guess it doesn't really matter to me that we trounced on gadget offense with Lamar, beat Skyler Thompson, then Mason Rudolph. It's kind of funny that matters to you. But that would round out the rest of the numbers. Well what it does is it shows your bias, plain and simple. You actually did do some good work but give the full picture that’s all 20 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said: Been told over and over on this forum that the offense has been at fault for playoff losses, including last week. Guess those people probably won't respond in this thread. You’ve never seen threads and posts about how bad the defense has continually played in the playoffs? We must read different threads because that has been a theme for years 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 Just now, Ya Digg? said: Well what it does is it shows your bias, plain and simple. You actually did do some good work but give the full picture that’s all I picked the last game of the season consistently across the board. Beating 3rd world QB's at home is not what is keeping us from moving further. Getting absolutely decimated when we step up in competition is. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 8 minutes ago, Mikie2times said: In 2020, the Colts had the 3rd best EPA of the year vs us. I guess it doesn't really matter to me that we trounced on gadget offense with Lamar, beat Skyler Thompson, then Mason Rudolph. It's kind of funny that matters to you. But that would round out the rest of the numbers. Every single one of those games were playoff and single elimination games. If you’re trying to make a point about defense in the playoffs, include all the playoff games lmao. 27 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said: Been told over and over on this forum that the offense has been at fault for playoff losses, including last week. Guess those people probably won't respond in this thread. I mean, did we expect to beat the Bengals with 10 points? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 (edited) 9 minutes ago, FireChans said: Every single one of those games were playoff and single elimination games. If you’re trying to make a point about defense in the playoffs, include all the playoff games lmao. I mean, did we expect to beat the Bengals with 10 points? In 2020, vs the Colts, the Colts had a EPA of 18.47, which is about the most the Chiefs have ever put up in the Mahomes era and the 3rd highest total they posted that year. In the Ravens and Bills game, both teams had the worst EPA of the season on offense. I'm guessing the wind played a roll in that. In the Dolphins game in 2022, it was the worst EPA they had on the season as well but it was Skyler Thompson, so I really don't know what kind of context this provides us. In 2023, The Steelers had the 9th rated EPA against us on the season. Middle of the road for what output they had. What exactly are you trying to hang your hat on here? Edited January 28 by Mikie2times 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Julio Hopkins Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 35 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said: Been told over and over on this forum that the offense has been at fault for playoff losses, including last week. Guess those people probably won't respond in this thread. It's literally insane, if the offense played like they did against the Bengals last year then the Chiefs would have put up 40+ points with one of the worst receiving corps in the league. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I would be helpful to know how the offenses we played in the regular season were ranked compared to the offenses in the postseason. You can pad stats against bad qbs/ teams on the regular season. A little different against Mahomes and Burrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 How about just have an offense that scores a ton of points like what we used to have with Daboll? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloButt Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 55 minutes ago, Mikie2times said: I knew our defense in the playoffs was bad, but I didn't realize it was at this level of bad. These are our DVOA rankings since 2020, which are all above average with 2021 and 2022 being elite. 2020: 11th 2021: 2nd 2022: 1st 2023: 12th This is EPA allowed in our playoff losses along with the EPA each of these teams posted in other playoff games that same year. I included how that EPA ranked on the season for that team. Kansas City 2023: vs Buffalo, 11.85 EPA 5th best on the season Other playoff games that year: Miami EPA 9.58, 7th best Bengals 2022: vs Buffalo, 22.03 EPA, 3rd best on the season Other Playoff games that year: KC 4.06 EPA 10th best, Ravens .7 EPA 16th best Kansas City 2021: vs Buffalo, 32.62 EPA, 3rd best on the season Other playoff games that year: Steelers 16.09 EPA, 9th best, Bengals 11.28 EPA 12th best Kansas City 2020: Vs Buffalo, 30.34 1st best on the season Other playoff games that year: Browns 19.09 EPA 9th best, Tampa Bay: -7.90 EPA 19th best For context, Kansas City has not had an EPA in the 20's in a playoff game one time since 2020 but they have had 2 games vs us in the 30's. The Bengals have not had a offensive EPA over 10 in any playoff game in the Burrow era but they had one in the 20's against us. It's not just that we underperform, it's that we allow historically excellent performances from these teams with a defense that rates either above average or far above average in the regular season. So the question come into play, WHY?? Why is the D so bad in the playoffs? What are the coaches and players doing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said: How about just have an offense that scores a ton of points like what we used to have with Daboll? Yeah imagine if we had an offense that scored TDs on 12 out of 16 drives in the playoffs. Surely that offense would make it past the divisional round. No way the defense could spoil such an impossibly great performance. 2 4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I think we knew the problem after 13 seconds. The Bills lack a true game changer on defense. The Chiefs have one in Chris Jones........and despite the Bills dominating the Chiefs D for most of that game last Sunday Jones came up big in a big moment. It's why I wouldn't be entirely shocked if the Bills took a swing at signing Danielle Hunter in UFA if he gets there. Despite their cap issues. They could bring him in with a $2M cap hit and push his big hits down the road sorta' like they did with Von. I'm not predicting it but if they are desperate to close the deal it wouldn't surprise me. I don't see this defense taking a big step without their version of TJ Watt, Aaron Donald or Chris Jones. Ed Oliver isn't going to be that guy, IMO. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 51 minutes ago, Dick_Cheney said: First priority is obviously managing our cap situation. Then I think that if by the trade deadline we are in contention for the #1 seed, I think we have to go all out in trying to get it. Sell the farm and take the risk. It's unfortunately obvious at this point that Beane could have been significantly more aggressive this past year at the deadline and acquired at least another receiver, and while that wouldn't have resolved our defensive woes, it's entirely possible it would have been enough to overcome them. If we had grabbed DHop or maybe even Henry, I think it's fair to say that we probably wouldn't have been screaming about dudes dropping balls the entire second half of the season. One thing I will say in Beane's defense on this is that every GM has these misses. Just look at the Chiefs under Brett Veach. They used a 1st round pick on a RB which is a cardinal sin of modern football, and worse that RB didn't even turn out to be a good player. This past offseason they also failed to sign Hopkins, instead choosing to give out a massive contract to a RT which again is a cardinal sin, and again the RT didn't turn out to be a good player. These two awful mistakes could have sunk the team. But the Chiefs happen to also have an elite coaching staff, so they have more than overcome it. Or look at the Eagles. Most people consider Howie Roseman to be the best GM in football. But his team was undone late in the season and then in the playoffs because of poor coaching. So I guess looking at the totality of Beane's work in recent years I think overall it is actually pretty good relative to other Super Bowl contenders. Coaching, especially in the playoffs, is where we are seeing a big discrepancy between us and the other contenders IMO. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTown Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 It's a good thing that we have a defensive-oriented HC and Defensive coach all wrapped into one. Smfh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 (edited) 15 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Ed Oliver isn't going to be that guy, IMO. You're damned right about that. Edited January 28 by Pine Barrens Mafia 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsflyer12 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, Bermuda Triangle said: Been told over and over on this forum that the offense has been at fault for playoff losses, including last week. Guess those people probably won't respond in this thread. It’s the offense fault only in the sense that McD playoff defenses are awful and the singular goal of the offense should be to do whatever it takes to score at least 30 pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 20 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: I think we knew the problem after 13 seconds. The Bills lack a true game changer on defense. The Chiefs have one in Chris Jones........and despite the Bills dominating the Chiefs D for most of that game last Sunday Jones came up big in a big moment. It's why I wouldn't be entirely shocked if the Bills took a swing at signing Danielle Hunter in UFA if he gets there. Despite their cap issues. They could bring him in with a $2M cap hit and push his big hits down the road sorta' like they did with Von. I'm not predicting it but if they are desperate to close the deal it wouldn't surprise me. I don't see this defense taking a big step without their version of TJ Watt, Aaron Donald or Chris Jones. Ed Oliver isn't going to be that guy, IMO. Is Hunter that guy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastport bills Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I know there’s plenty of excuses for the ineptitude we displayed against the Chiefs.(injuries, short turnaround and Mahomes) Sean, however with “next man up “ and no excuses mentality, didn’t distinguish himself as a DC. worth going forward with. He couldn’t come close to Mahomes with a 4 man rush and stubbornly stayed with it. When he brought pressure in the 2nd half, there were wide open receivers and quick scores as evidenced by the amount of plays they ran. His defense allowed runners to embarrass us even though we knew they would be run heavy. For anyone to think that our loss was anything but on that defense is silly. Sean is a good defensive coach but his weakness is overrating his personnel and wishing and hoping divine intervention will make everything ok. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I feel a lot better after watching how Baltimore fared against the Chiefs in the first half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bermuda Triangle Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 hours ago, BBFL said: I think the majority of people claim the offense is at fault because we know what they are capable of and have underperformed. No one is relying on the defense to win the game. Big difference. It’s been a consistent theme of guys not showing up except Josh… 🤷♂️ Despite the resources - both in terms of draft capital and free agent money - that have been sunk into the defense, and the statistical success of the defense in the regular season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fetou Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 What we do against the Bengals can't even be called a defense. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bermuda Triangle Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 hours ago, FireChans said: I mean, did we expect to beat the Bengals with 10 points? By the time the offense had their second possession of the game, the team was down 0-14. Those 2 TD drives scored by the Bengals were shockingly easy - I believe only one 3rd down was converted by the Bengals. And each of the two (lol) times that the offense did score, did the defense hold the Bengals and give the offense the ball back? No - the Bengals scored on both of those succeeding possessions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chongli Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Fire Frazier! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 hours ago, FireChans said: Is Hunter that guy? Not for me. He is inconsistent. I'd trust Ed Oliver more in big moments. Hunter is dynamic but he isn't a guaranteed show up in the big moments guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan in Cleveland Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 McD has been a fraud since the Houston collapse. His D played great against the Ravens. Other than that he has been totally outclassed. Beane needs to exert control this offseason and prioritize the WR group and the DL. He fixed the oline last year and the RB group will be fine whoever backs up Cook. TE group is great. Now just go get a WR or two to help Diggs and Shakir. Then get younger at edge. He needs to ***** can these special teams players. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 (edited) 1 hour ago, RiotAct said: I feel a lot better after watching how Baltimore fared against the Chiefs in the first half. Ravens defense in this game is actually a perfect example of what this thread is about... We gave up 8.5 yards per play to the Chiefs last week. Their offense averaged 5.5 YPP in the regular season. So we gave up a full 3 yards per play more than their average... As of 6:50 remaining in the 4th quarter (before the game ended on a dumb Lamar Jackson INT) the Ravens have given up 4.4 YPP. So they gave up 1.1 yards per play LESS than the Chiefs average... Ravens defense played amazing. It wasn't pretty early on but they made adjustments about halfway through the 2nd quarter and never let up from there. I'm actually angry watching Lamar and the Ravens offense waste a great defensive performance. If our defense had played this well last week we would have beaten the Chiefs by 10 points. Edited January 28 by HappyDays 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Ravens defense in this game is actually a perfect example of what this thread is about... We gave up 8.5 yards per play to the Chiefs last week. They averaged 5.5 YPP in the regular season. As of 6:50 remaining in the 4th quarter (before the game ended on a dumb Lamar Jackson INT) the Ravens have given up 4.4 YPP... Ravens defense played amazing. It wasn't pretty early on but they made adjustments about halfway through the 2nd quarter and never let up from there. I'm actually angry watching Lamar and the Ravens offense waste a great defensive performance. If our defense had played this well last week we would have beaten the Chiefs by 10 points. yeah I spoke too soon, the Ravens D has been great in the 2nd half. Offense letting them down. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, RiotAct said: yeah I spoke too soon, the Ravens D has been great in the 2nd half. Offense letting them down. Must be nice having a defensive coach that makes adjustments before it's too late. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 (edited) All year the book on the Chiefs was score more than 20 points and you win the game. The Ravens game ends up being the same script. The Bills end the season being the ONLY team all year to score more than 20 on the Chiefs and lose the game. Another frustrating end to the season caused solely by our defense. And I see no path to fixing it next year. We're stuck in neutral. **** Edited January 28 by HappyDays 3 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Boy Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said: This is reason alone to $h1t can your defensive HC. The guy who has now lost us TWO chances at the Superbowl, this season being the second. A team takes on the persona of its leaders….. nervous in the service defensively when on the biggest stages. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BananaB Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 The coach is soft and so is his D 1 hour ago, Fetou said: What we do against the Bengals can't even be called a defense. I’m waiting for the next time we play them, see if MCD can mix it up in the first quarter. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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