What is your gut telling you right now?

[Billsfan4588]

Rewatched the bills/steelers game yesterday and the chiefs/fins game today. I was a lot more pessimistic about this upcoming game prior to watching these again. The chiefs are super vulnerable, specifically:

 

1. The chiefs o line didn't look all that great. Fins missing their top DEs and the chiefs had to stick to the short game because pressure even with just 4 rushers was getting home. Also, a noticeable amount of balls batted down at the line on mahomes passes.

 

2. They didn't run the ball as well as you'd think. Pacheco had a few longer runs, mostly On their first drive/first half, but not a great running team and minus a run or two in the second half, they were held in check. Chiefs scored 7 points in the beginning of the 4th quarter due to field position they obtained in the end of the 3rd.

 

3. Chiefs struggled getting the ball in the endzone, kelce seems slightly old and unless he finds a soft spot in zone coverage, he's not really getting open. 

 

4. Mahomes is human, especially if you hit him a few times, it doesn't have to be sack, just remind him that you're coming for him every snap.  He missed quite a few wide open easy throws and receivers (including kelce) dropped others.

 

5. The chiefs defense is simply not all it's being hyped up to be. The dolphins game was easy for them because all the dolphins could do was try to run the ball or throw screens because Tua simply doesn't have a good enough arms for the game conditions.

 

I truly believe if the bills don't beat themselves with silly errors/penalties and the refs don't screw them , they can win by even double digits. All that being said, I could be completely wrong and we get killed by mahomes/kelce/rice. Either way,  Go Bills!!

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Shouldn’t have eaten all that expired ham!  Just go to the store and get new ham next time.

[Boatdrinks]

54 minutes ago, NewEra said:

KC is once again pretty healthy in the playoffs.  
 

This matters more than some fans will admit. The Bills have to overcome it, and maybe playing the game at home will make a significant difference.

[Taro Nimbus]

My gut is telling me I should eat something right now.  

[SaulGoodman]

I don't understand the narrative that KC is always super healthy in the playoffs. Mahomes played the entire playoffs last year on a high ankle sprain and they were down 4 of their top 5 WRs in the AFCC, plus some key defenders. In 2020, they went to the SB with a 3rd string OL. 

[Radar]

20 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

I don’t trust McDermott.

   i stated at the beginning of the season that I didn’t and I couldn’t be too excited because of him.

    In the final game against Miami, at the end of the game as we were trying to burn clock:

    On third down and 7 or 8 , we played man on everyone presnap, then whoever was covering Hill inexplicably backed off 10 yards. Hill got to the first down, Tua hit him perfectly and he dropped it. WTAF?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

    This is the kind of STUPID S#!+ that McD can’t seem to help himself from doing. Like a crackhead with a five in his pocket!

    We can win this game. But, my faith in it happening is slightly less than 50%. With the best QB in the league. 

I feel same. Even at home this is no better than 50%.

[Realist]

With a healthy defense, Buffalo is the better team. However, with all of these injuries, I'm really nervous about this game. We're coming up from NC for this one, I don't want to come all the way up there just to see the Bills lose. If we can at least get Douglas, Dodson, and Johnson back, I think we can sneak out the win and I can go home happy.

[Royale with Cheese]

14 minutes ago, FireChans said:

SuperBowl

 

Is your gut usually accurate?

[FireChans]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Is your gut usually accurate?

Objection! relevance, your honor.

[theAteam]

My gut tells me I need to see game time inactives before I should trust my gut.

 

Current impression is the offense needs to score 30+ with <2 turnovers. Chiefs have won super bowls with less than elite defenses where their biggest defensive edge was getting pass rush through just enough for their offense to stay ahead of the other team. Our DL is the healthiest defensive unit we have and I think we can win in a similar way to that, but we need a clean game from the offense where they get TDs on the majority of their red zone trips.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 minutes ago, SaulGoodman said:

I don't understand the narrative that KC is always super healthy in the playoffs. Mahomes played the entire playoffs last year on a high ankle sprain and they were down 4 of their top 5 WRs in the AFCC, plus some key defenders. In 2020, they went to the SB with a 3rd string OL. 

Yea I agree with a lot of this except that last point requires some context as they didn’t exactly make it through the playoffs down some linemen…a few got hurt pretty late in our game.  If they had that 2020 Super Bowl roster for the whole playoffs I don’t think they would’ve made it past the Texans in the divisional round 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

KC 23

BUF 41

 

If Allen and McDermott can't take down a weakened Chiefs team at home, in a "moment we've been waiting for" according to Allen, it's going to be a big "Where do we go from here?" situation for the organization.

 

The Bills have to win.

[stlbills13]

The Chiefs are good, they have a good coach, they've won it all a few times. They know what it takes to win in the playoffs (although we'll see about on the road in the playoffs). They have a really good defense. So in that sense, I feel pretty nervous.

 

The Chiefs and Bills know each other well so both coaches will be prepared for basically everything. In that sense, I feel neutral. 

 

But the Bills are at home in front of a crowd that is going to impact the game. Josh played really really well against Pittsburgh. The offensive line has been good and healthy basically all season. Shakir appears to be ascending. Kincaid had a slight slump but he seems to be back to being a serious weapon. And James Cook has cooled off but he still gives a run game that defenses have to respect. So in that sense, I feel great.

 

Shawn Hochuli has the game so that that sense I feel pretty bad.

 

The health of the Bills defense is huge. Douglas, Dodson, and Johnson all play, the Bills win. 

 

The front 4 has to get to Mahomes.

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Objection! relevance, your honor.

 

Can you just tell me yes so I can feel even more better about this game?

[Buffalo Boy]

8 minutes ago, Radar said:

I feel same. Even at home this is no better than 50%.

LTBF

   Do you think Mahomes and Kelce and Reid are bringing anything less than their A game? Do you think that this game will be too big for them or do you think they will be in their Element?

    Do you think McD will be in his Element? Or will this possibly become too big for him, again?

   Hoping and wanting are great. I hope and want drub the heck out of them.

   Faith is another thing entirely. Faith is based upon previous experiences ( not wishful thinking which a huge segment of humanity misses) I don’t have faith in McD because his previous performances preclude it. 
    So, eye rolls and puke emojis aside, what is it that has you not sounding too sold on a win but still throwing shade?

[PBF81]

50 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Ummmm...I have class.

 

Look over your head, ... that thing with contrails behind it is humor.  

 

 

[Sundo91]

The passing of the torch. Just like Hogan to The Rock at Wrestlemania.

 

Go Bills!

[BearNorth]

2 minutes ago, stlbills13 said:

The health of the Bills defense is huge. Douglas, Dodson, and Johnson all play, the Bills win. 

 

Klein and D. Williams have to come to play, they are key to stopping Kelce, the running game, and the underhand passes.

 

I am concerned that we probably have to waste 1 of our 2 callups on a punter. 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Look over your head, ... that thing with contrails behind it is humor.  

 

 

 

I had to google contrails.

[longtimebillsfan]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

LTBF

   Do you think Mahomes and Kelce and Reid are bringing anything less than their A game? Do you think that this game will be too big for them or do you think they will be in their Element?

    Do you think McD will be in his Element? Or will this possibly become too big for him, again?

   Hoping and wanting are great. I hope and want drub the heck out of them.

   Faith is another thing entirely. Faith is based upon previous experiences ( not wishful thinking which a huge segment of humanity misses) I don’t have faith in McD because his previous performances preclude it. 
    So, eye rolls and puke emojis aside, what is it that has you not sounding too sold on a win but still throwing shade?

You "fire McDermott" posters get so tiresome.  If McDermott was fired we most likely would be much worse off.  He is not going anywhere.

 

But just keep crying.  The rest of us can't get enough of your whining.

Edited January 18 by longtimebillsfan

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

I was jittery and nervous at the start, but I am settling in. I feel good. I will probably lay some money down.

 

The talking heads are talking about the past. But this is brand new. The Chiefs offense hasn't been magic BS as in years past. Their D is good (not underestimating them) but the data shows that they do so well when they use the crowd noise in Arrowhead combined with aggressive blitzes from Spags. Now, the crowd noise is on the other side with Mahomes using lesser receivers and Brady has dusted off a bunch of blitz beaters to counter what everyone started throwing after the Chiefs game. 

 

It's not easy. My heart will be hammering all game. But this time, the Bills are the more talented team playing in their house. And Mahommes has never tasted Bills Mafia on the road in his career. 

 

I think this is the year we do it.

[Bob Jones]

Could be a statement win, or Bills could revert to "bad Bills" and get embarrassed. No way to tell, really, until Sunday night. Too much inconsistency this year.

[FilthyBeast]

Gut feeling has told me for sometime this would be a loss if they should meet again in the playoffs.

 

Unfortunately though I've been trying to fend off the same crippling anxiety I had prior to the 2020 AFCCG, 2021/2022 divisional (nausea, borderline panic attacks, digestive issues, dread, heart palpipations, etc).

 

I would love to be wrong because I do believe this Bills team will go the distance if they solve the Chiefs puzzle, but Mahomes is who he is....a Jason Voorhees/Michael Myers type creature and there's a reason he's only even lost 3 playoff games (Brady x2, Burrow) and 2 of those ended in overtime.

 

One last point, I think for all the Allen/Mahomes story lines...some folks don't realize how historically good this Chiefs defense is this year....a true elite unit across the board, and for me this is the real reason why I feel the Chiefs win (possibly big) because elite defense like this always travel well and this unit is so much better than what we've seen in years past which they seem to be average in the regular season but take it to another level in the postseason like the Patriots/Brady teams of years past.

[juno999]

I feel good about the game.  The Bills are beat up on D but the Chiefs are too.  Their run stopping DT Derrick Nnadi has a triceps injury and may miss the game.  Also CB L'Jarius Sneed is dealing with a calf injury.  He usually covers Diggs.

[CookieG]

I don't trust my gut.  My gut can tell me, "that fried chicken smells really good."  The next day my gut tells me "why the hell did you eat that fried chicken?!"

 

On paper, this is a really, really, close match up.  The Chiefs have 57 sacks, the Bills lead the league in fewest sacks allowed.  I have some confidence the Bills coaching staff figures out how to protect better than the regular season game and/or gives Josh more quick outlet passes. And Josh is going to run more when  protection breaks down.  

 

Getting a few people back on D is going to be vital, Dodson and Douglas coming back, if they play,  will be huge. I'm not as worried about Kelsey getting some passes, he's going to get his catches,   its the others, esp. Pacheco and RIce who worry me more.

 

Bad Josh needs to stay home...last week's Josh needs to continue.   Find his play makers, let them do their thing.  Lock him in the film room the rest of the week and force him to watch Chiefs games.  Let him figure out where the blitzes are coming from.  He'll find a ***** in their D. Don't force a bad decision. 

 

 

 

[PayDaBill$]

Injuries are a colossal concern, & as is playing mistake free football. Patty and Mr Swift are always dangerous and will definitely take advantage of any mistakes we make.

 

We always seem to play the Chefs close and we’re home. So I expect a good game but tightly contested.

 

 

[PBF81]

My gut's telling me that this is an incredibly winable game against a team that's incredibly overrated.  

 

To start, the Chiefs have been playing .500 ball since the last weekend in October.  

Their offense has averaged 20 PPG over that stretch.  

They've beaten only one playoff team, Miami, despite having beaten them twice, which probably says more about Miami than it does about KC.  

Of their 6 losses, three were against playoff teams (GB, Detroit, Buffalo) and the other three were against bubble playoff teams.  

 

If our offense is schemed properly and we take advantage of matchups and adjust accordingly, not merely at the half, but in-game, there's no reason why we cannot hit the 30 mark.  The Packers hung 27 on them and we're better offensively, when we choose to be, than they are.  

 

Bothering me is that in the Pitt game it seemed as is up by 11 in a game very much still in play, it seemed as if we went into run-the-clock-out mode in the middle of the 3rd.  

 

Our team is solid.  We've won one Divisional Round game in 7 seasons under McD.  If anything prevents us from winning this one it'll be coaching as McD is going up against one of the best coaches in the game today.  

 

Offense is our strength, particularly now with some injuries on D.  The DL is fine and our secondary's been banged up to one extent or another for two seasons now.  It's the LBs and they're questionable, but either way, Klein comes in as well.  Not a great matchup for Kelce, but as I've pointed out all season, Kelce at 34 would begin to diminish and the WRs that KC has are JAGs other than for Rice who's come on, but is still a rookie.  He's good, but far from great.  KC depends wildly upon Pacheco playing well to win.  

 

Furthermore, KC is 3-5 when they allow 118+ rushing.  1-3 when they allow more than 123.  

 

If we can't get 150 yards rushing with Cook having come off a decent game vs. Pitt and Allen, it would be stunning.  

 

With our fans being rabid, I see a repeat of the '91 season playoff game where DeBerg couldn't hear himself think.  

 

... again, assuming that Brady/McD don't shell-up once we get a marginal lead.  

 

 

 

 

[FireChans]

16 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Can you just tell me yes so I can feel even more better about this game?

My gut told me to put a considerable amount of money on the Bills winning the AFCE and the AFC, along with the Texans to win the AFCS, when the Bills were 6-6.

 

I did just that. 
 

so the answer is yes.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I was much more pessimistic about the Bengals last year. 
 

I felt sick to my stomach all week last year, I knew we were going to get rocked.

 

This game, right now, just laser focused on the practice report and who is going to tape it up and try to play in this game. 
 

The Bills know what’s on the line and how big this game is. I think guys are going to do everything they can to get back.

 

And last week McDermott was willing to let things go into the weekend on Douglas and Dodson so that tells me they understand the urgency and are willing to take it to the 12th hour.

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, FireChans said:

My gut told me to put a considerable amount of money on the Bills winning the AFCE and the AFC, along with the Texans to win the AFCS, when the Bills were 6-6.

 

I did just that. 
 

so the answer is yes.

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

My gut's telling me that this is an incredibly winable game against a team that's incredibly overrated.  

 

To start, the Chiefs have been playing .500 ball since the last weekend in October.  

Their offense has averaged 20 PPG over that stretch.  

They've beaten only one playoff team, Miami, despite having beaten them twice, which probably says more about Miami than it does about KC.  

Of their 6 losses, three were against playoff teams (GB, Detroit, Buffalo) and the other three were against bubble playoff teams.  

 

If our offense is schemed properly and we take advantage of matchups and adjust accordingly, not merely at the half, but in-game, there's no reason why we cannot hit the 30 mark.  The Packers hung 27 on them and we're better offensively, when we choose to be, than they are.  

 

Bothering me is that in the Pitt game it seemed as is up by 11 in a game very much still in play, it seemed as if we went into run-the-clock-out mode in the middle of the 3rd.  

 

Our team is solid.  We've won one Divisional Round game in 7 seasons under McD.  If anything prevents us from winning this one it'll be coaching as McD is going up against one of the best coaches in the game today.  

 

Offense is our strength, particularly now with some injuries on D.  The DL is fine and our secondary's been banged up to one extent or another for two seasons now.  It's the LBs and they're questionable, but either way, Klein comes in as well.  Not a great matchup for Kelce, but as I've pointed out all season, Kelce at 34 would begin to diminish and the WRs that KC has are JAGs other than for Rice who's come on, but is still a rookie.  He's good, but far from great.  KC depends wildly upon Pacheco playing well to win.  

 

Furthermore, KC is 3-5 when they allow 118+ rushing.  1-3 when they allow more than 123.  

 

If we can't get 150 yards rushing with Cook having come off a decent game vs. Pitt and Allen, it would be stunning.  

 

With our fans being rabid, I see a repeat of the '91 season playoff game where DeBerg couldn't hear himself think.  

 

... again, assuming that Brady/McD don't shell-up once we get a marginal lead.  

 

 

 

 

The Bills and Chiefs are kind of Jekyll and Hyde imo when it comes to their warts.

 

My prediction is whatever team starts the hottest will win. 
 

Similar to Steelers, the Chiefs don’t really have the horses to comeback down double digits. But honestly, not sure the Bills do either unless Josh plays out of his mind.

 

If the Chiefs get up 10-0 early or even 7-0 on their second possession after we go three and out, I will feel extremely nervous. Conversely, if we get a 10 point lead early, I think we win the game going away. 

[stlbills13]

17 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Klein and D. Williams have to come to play, they are key to stopping Kelce, the running game, and the underhand passes.

 

I am concerned that we probably have to waste 1 of our 2 callups on a punter. 

 

And if Davis is out, our 2 callups could be Isabella and Hauck. You have to consider IR for Martin or Davis IMO

[BigDingus]

My gut feeling is pure anxiety.

 

I want us to win, I think we SHOULD win, I think we have the better team, but the thought of a 3rd playoff loss to the Chiefs makes me physically uncomfortable. 

 

And it's not the normal anxiety of a potential loss, it's an added, empathetic, more acute stress for Josh & his reputation.

 

We all love him, we'll defend him, but get used to hearing everyone else label him a choke artist. The "turnover machine" moniker is bad enough, but he will no longer get the benefit of the doubt from other fan bases or the media.

 

Nothing he accomplishes will ever be enough, will always be fighting a losing battle in public perception, be ranked a tier lower than other elite QBs, etc... which will affect his chances of ever winning MVP or other accolades that impact his legacy. 😢

[McMuffin]

We have three opponents on this Sunday.

1. Ourselves

2. The Chiefs

3. The refs

My gut says we win but it’s going to go the full distance.

[Ralonzo]

33 minutes ago, Sundo91 said:

The passing of the torch. Just like Hogan to The Rock at Wrestlemania.

 

Go Bills!

 

Did anyone catch Brandt on GMFB drawing the Mahomes v Allen analogy to Brady v Manning? The reputation was sealed when Brady beat Manning the playoffs the first 2 times he faced him - with the caveat that both were at home. The next 3 times they faced off in the playoffs, it was Manning at home and he went 3-0 vs Brady. Still the reputation persists falsely to this day that Brady owned Manning.

[CSBill]

My Gut? I feel good about this one. Won't be easy, but I think the crowd and home field will make the difference.

[Bills!Win!]

The chiefs lost at home to the raiders. I shouldn’t be worried, right? 

[section122]

It just feels like a bills win.

 

This is their time!

[Craig Oi]

I'm feeling good about this one...It's our time...Bills win.

 

[Captain Hindsight]

This is the week Mahomes gets the label he can't win on the road in the playoffs