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What is your gut telling you right now?


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Rewatched the bills/steelers game yesterday and the chiefs/fins game today. I was a lot more pessimistic about this upcoming game prior to watching these again. The chiefs are super vulnerable, specifically:

 

1. The chiefs o line didn't look all that great. Fins missing their top DEs and the chiefs had to stick to the short game because pressure even with just 4 rushers was getting home. Also, a noticeable amount of balls batted down at the line on mahomes passes.

 

2. They didn't run the ball as well as you'd think. Pacheco had a few longer runs, mostly On their first drive/first half, but not a great running team and minus a run or two in the second half, they were held in check. Chiefs scored 7 points in the beginning of the 4th quarter due to field position they obtained in the end of the 3rd.

 

3. Chiefs struggled getting the ball in the endzone, kelce seems slightly old and unless he finds a soft spot in zone coverage, he's not really getting open. 

 

4. Mahomes is human, especially if you hit him a few times, it doesn't have to be sack, just remind him that you're coming for him every snap.  He missed quite a few wide open easy throws and receivers (including kelce) dropped others.

 

5. The chiefs defense is simply not all it's being hyped up to be. The dolphins game was easy for them because all the dolphins could do was try to run the ball or throw screens because Tua simply doesn't have a good enough arms for the game conditions.

 

I truly believe if the bills don't beat themselves with silly errors/penalties and the refs don't screw them , they can win by even double digits. All that being said, I could be completely wrong and we get killed by mahomes/kelce/rice. Either way,  Go Bills!!

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54 minutes ago, NewEra said:

KC is once again pretty healthy in the playoffs.  
 

This matters more than some fans will admit. The Bills have to overcome it, and maybe playing the game at home will make a significant difference.

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I don't understand the narrative that KC is always super healthy in the playoffs. Mahomes played the entire playoffs last year on a high ankle sprain and they were down 4 of their top 5 WRs in the AFCC, plus some key defenders. In 2020, they went to the SB with a 3rd string OL. 

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20 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

I don’t trust McDermott.

   i stated at the beginning of the season that I didn’t and I couldn’t be too excited because of him.

    In the final game against Miami, at the end of the game as we were trying to burn clock:

    On third down and 7 or 8 , we played man on everyone presnap, then whoever was covering Hill inexplicably backed off 10 yards. Hill got to the first down, Tua hit him perfectly and he dropped it. WTAF?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

    This is the kind of STUPID S#!+ that McD can’t seem to help himself from doing. Like a crackhead with a five in his pocket!

    We can win this game. But, my faith in it happening is slightly less than 50%. With the best QB in the league. 

I feel same. Even at home this is no better than 50%.

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With a healthy defense, Buffalo is the better team. However, with all of these injuries, I'm really nervous about this game. We're coming up from NC for this one, I don't want to come all the way up there just to see the Bills lose. If we can at least get Douglas, Dodson, and Johnson back, I think we can sneak out the win and I can go home happy.

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My gut tells me I need to see game time inactives before I should trust my gut.

 

Current impression is the offense needs to score 30+ with <2 turnovers. Chiefs have won super bowls with less than elite defenses where their biggest defensive edge was getting pass rush through just enough for their offense to stay ahead of the other team. Our DL is the healthiest defensive unit we have and I think we can win in a similar way to that, but we need a clean game from the offense where they get TDs on the majority of their red zone trips.

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8 minutes ago, SaulGoodman said:

I don't understand the narrative that KC is always super healthy in the playoffs. Mahomes played the entire playoffs last year on a high ankle sprain and they were down 4 of their top 5 WRs in the AFCC, plus some key defenders. In 2020, they went to the SB with a 3rd string OL. 

Yea I agree with a lot of this except that last point requires some context as they didn’t exactly make it through the playoffs down some linemen…a few got hurt pretty late in our game.  If they had that 2020 Super Bowl roster for the whole playoffs I don’t think they would’ve made it past the Texans in the divisional round 

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The Chiefs are good, they have a good coach, they've won it all a few times. They know what it takes to win in the playoffs (although we'll see about on the road in the playoffs). They have a really good defense. So in that sense, I feel pretty nervous.

 

The Chiefs and Bills know each other well so both coaches will be prepared for basically everything. In that sense, I feel neutral. 

 

But the Bills are at home in front of a crowd that is going to impact the game. Josh played really really well against Pittsburgh. The offensive line has been good and healthy basically all season. Shakir appears to be ascending. Kincaid had a slight slump but he seems to be back to being a serious weapon. And James Cook has cooled off but he still gives a run game that defenses have to respect. So in that sense, I feel great.

 

Shawn Hochuli has the game so that that sense I feel pretty bad.

 

The health of the Bills defense is huge. Douglas, Dodson, and Johnson all play, the Bills win. 

 

The front 4 has to get to Mahomes.

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8 minutes ago, Radar said:

I feel same. Even at home this is no better than 50%.

LTBF

   Do you think Mahomes and Kelce and Reid are bringing anything less than their A game? Do you think that this game will be too big for them or do you think they will be in their Element?

    Do you think McD will be in his Element? Or will this possibly become too big for him, again?

   Hoping and wanting are great. I hope and want drub the heck out of them.

   Faith is another thing entirely. Faith is based upon previous experiences ( not wishful thinking which a huge segment of humanity misses) I don’t have faith in McD because his previous performances preclude it. 
    So, eye rolls and puke emojis aside, what is it that has you not sounding too sold on a win but still throwing shade?

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2 minutes ago, stlbills13 said:

The health of the Bills defense is huge. Douglas, Dodson, and Johnson all play, the Bills win. 

 

Klein and D. Williams have to come to play, they are key to stopping Kelce, the running game, and the underhand passes.

 

I am concerned that we probably have to waste 1 of our 2 callups on a punter. 

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9 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

LTBF

   Do you think Mahomes and Kelce and Reid are bringing anything less than their A game? Do you think that this game will be too big for them or do you think they will be in their Element?

    Do you think McD will be in his Element? Or will this possibly become too big for him, again?

   Hoping and wanting are great. I hope and want drub the heck out of them.

   Faith is another thing entirely. Faith is based upon previous experiences ( not wishful thinking which a huge segment of humanity misses) I don’t have faith in McD because his previous performances preclude it. 
    So, eye rolls and puke emojis aside, what is it that has you not sounding too sold on a win but still throwing shade?

You "fire McDermott" posters get so tiresome.  If McDermott was fired we most likely would be much worse off.  He is not going anywhere.

 

But just keep crying.  The rest of us can't get enough of your whining.

Edited by longtimebillsfan
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