Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

5 hours ago, boyst said:

tank and move all in to get MHJ.

 

If we followed the Pine Barrens Mafia plan, not only would we have MHJ, we'd also have our pick of the litter of spanking new rookie QBs AND whatever bounty our own first gave us.

 

PBM, that guy's a friggin genius, years ahead of his time

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

We wouldn't beat KC or Dallas with that effort for certain. Philly played like ass the first half. We should have put up 18 more points based on the opportunities we were handed, but we couldn't close. We won't get that lucky the next two weeks.

I expect the better McD in Miami to learn from his previous mistakes and give us a much tougher game unless it ends up being meaningless for them.

I think Miami will likely be resting starters and if not…why would you expect him to learn? Lol  his fourth career game coaching against us was his worst yet.  We are a bad matchup for them on both sides of the ball

 

i guess yesterdays game is in the eye of the beholder,  I’d give our defense some credit for the first half but you have gone the other way with it which is a personal choice 😁. 
 

[Livinginthepast]

37 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

The Bills team we saw yesterday probably loses 3/5. If there's a bet that I can make that they lose 2/5+, let me know because I'm very interested.

You mean the "Bills Coach" we saw yesterday. That "team we saw yesterday is capable of winning all 5 if not hamstrung by weak coaching decisions! 

[BullBuchanan]

27 minutes ago, Livinginthepast said:

You mean the "Bills Coach" we saw yesterday. That "team we saw yesterday is capable of winning all 5 if not hamstrung by weak coaching decisions! 

Our coach was bad, but he didn't throw another INT making it 8 straight games, miss multiple wide open receivers, take dumb penalties that gave the other team life or drop passes right in his hands.

The whole team is playing poorly, which yes is a coaching problem, but not one that would be fixed this season if he were fired today.

[QCity]

9 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

I felt pretty bad this morning after 4 hours sleep (the game was from 10:30pm-2am in my time zone). So I did some calcuating of playoff odds as a distration, using the NYT simulator. 

 

If we win out: >99% chance of making it in

 

If we lose to KC only: 51%

If we lose to Cowboys: 63%

If we lose to the Chargers: 44%

If we lose to the Pats: 51%

If we lose to Miami: 45%

 

If we lose twice, no matter who: <10% chance

 

 

Yup that's about right. Around 52% chance if they go 4-1. Two losses and it's over. Probably a few days early for this post the tantrum is still going strong.

[SCBills]

Just now, BullBuchanan said:

Our coach was bad, but he didn't throw another INT making it 8 straight games, miss multiple wide open receivers, take dumb penalties that gave the other team life or drop passes right in his hands.

The whole team is playing poorly, which yes is a coaching problem, but not one that would be fixed this season if he were fired today.

The Offense played at an elite level yesterday.  Against a top defense, on the road, in bad weather.  
 

We ran 90+ plays.  1 turnover. 
 

His defensive starters were as healthy as they’ve been all season.   Nobody got hurt in game to stress the depth.  
 

McDermott, as usual, couldn’t get it done when it came to him as a HC and/or a DC.   
 

He failed us, again, on both fronts.  
 

Philly turned it over twice.  Philly’s playcalling for an entire half was ridiculous.   Sirianni, once again, found a way. 
 

The cherry on top…

 

They won the game on a play where they were in utter disbelief that anyone who watches film would give them that look.   They knew the game was over before they even snapped the ball. 
 

Sirianni > McDermott.  
 

McDermott never wins the chess match against the upper echelon coaches .. and it’s so, so noticeable. 

[LABILLBACKER]

9 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

I felt pretty bad this morning after 4 hours sleep (the game was from 10:30pm-2am in my time zone). So I did some calcuating of playoff odds as a distration, using the NYT simulator. 

 

If we win out: >99% chance of making it in

 

If we lose to KC only: 51%

If we lose to Cowboys: 63%

If we lose to the Chargers: 44%

If we lose to the Pats: 51%

If we lose to Miami: 45%

 

If we lose twice, no matter who: <10% chance

 

So there you have it.

 

Unfortunately, I am pessimistic about our chances to win close games, in the playoffs. In my opinion, you can pin this whole season (as well as the Houston playoff game and the 13 seconds game and a bunch of other games) on McD's soft defenses and bad strategy in crunchtime. I know all teams feel they should win more, but with the Buffalo Bills it is statistically indisputable. Our team loses far more than it should, given our offensive and defensive performance. I would love to see a stat that shows how much better or worse a team performs than it's statistical rankings. You could call it the Coaching Coefficient. My guess is McD would be pretty low.

 

I am bummed because no matter how hard we play (and these guys are playing hard, especially guys like Bernard or Floyd who are still not jaded by our past) we are hamstrung by this. It's like a dark cloud hanging over the team. And until that cloud is gone, it's hard to really enjoy this great bunch of players.

Good post. It is a shame that players like Floyd & Bernard are balling out during this defensive disaster. McDermott's horrible late game strategy and calls are absolutely killing us.  The Bills have absolutely no capacity to win close games under this coaches tendencies. 

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Good post. It is a shame that players like Floyd & Bernard are balling out during this defensive disaster. McDermott's horrible late game strategy and calls are absolutely killing us.  The Bills have absolutely no capacity to win close games under this coaches tendencies. 

Is giving your opponent a free pass to mid-field not a good way to hold a one score lead?

[BullBuchanan]

5 minutes ago, SCBills said:

The Offense played at an elite level yesterday.  Against a top defense, on the road, in bad weather.  
 

We ran 90+ plays.  1 turnover. 
 

His defensive starters were as healthy as they’ve been all season.   Nobody got hurt in game to stress the depth.  
 

McDermott, as usual, couldn’t get it done when it came to him as a HC and/or a DC.   
 

He failed us, again, on both fronts.  
 

Philly turned it over twice.  Philly’s playcalling for an entire half was ridiculous.   Sirianni, once again, found a way. 
 

The cherry on top…

 

They won the game on a play where they were in utter disbelief that anyone who watches film would give them that look.   They knew the game was over before they even snapped the ball. 
 

Sirianni > McDermott.  
 

McDermott never wins the chess match against the upper echelon coaches .. and it’s so, so noticeable. 

Agreed on all but the "Offense played at an elite level" part. We had three drives deep in Philly territory that resulted in a total of 3 points. It sure didn't seem elite to me when Allen threw a 2 yard out to a well covered Kincaid on 3rd and 10 at the Philly 30 when Shakiir was breaking wide open. It didn't seem elite to me either when he threw a ground ball to a blanketed Sherfield in the endzone. It especially didn't seem elite to me when he missed a wide open Gabe Davis for a should have been easy TD instead hitting the DB in the back.

It also didn't seem elite to me when he threw a should have been pick early in the game into a blanketed Gabe Davis with open receivers breaking across the middle.

We should have laid another 10-14 on Philly at minimum and we didn't. They started the game off horribly through the 3rd quarter on defense and we didn't deliver.

I'll keep saying it. Josh makes all the miracle plays, but it's his inability to make the plays you expect your practice squad QB to nail that is starting to cement his legacy as a loser. Should we ask him to be perfect every week? Of course not, but as long as McD is here, that'll be the game script.

[Gunsgoodtime]

6 hours ago, Negan said:

Chiefs L

Cowboys L

Chargers L

Patriots W

Dolphins L

Time for a higher draft pick, and hopefully McDermott gets fired 

This is how I see the remainder of the season

[Livinginthepast]

54 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Our coach was bad, but he didn't throw another INT making it 8 straight games, miss multiple wide open receivers, take dumb penalties that gave the other team life or drop passes right in his hands.

The whole team is playing poorly, which yes is a coaching problem, but not one that would be fixed this season if he were fired today.

yes, teams make mistakes. Bills made a few yesterday but it was the coach who consistently put them in a worse position with his decisions and lack of courage. A better coach wins them that game with a bold decision or two at the end and that wasnt McD yesterday. He literally needs to get out of his teams way at this point!

[DapperCam]

38 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Our coach was bad, but he didn't throw another INT making it 8 straight games, miss multiple wide open receivers, take dumb penalties that gave the other team life or drop passes right in his hands.

The whole team is playing poorly, which yes is a coaching problem, but not one that would be fixed this season if he were fired today.

Who missed multiple wide open receivers? I don’t remember that.

[Unforgiven]

It was at 0% for me after patriots beating

7 hours ago, Negan said:

Chiefs L

Cowboys L

Chargers L

Patriots W

Dolphins L

Time for a higher draft pick, and hopefully McDermott gets fired 

And only win vs pats because they are tanking, this team is horrible, the downspin started when 

they realized they weren't beating the bengals last regular season.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Unforgiven

[BullBuchanan]

5 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Who missed multiple wide open receivers? I don’t remember that.

You should have paid more attention. You don't remember Gabe Davis running wide open to the endzone in the 3rd? You don't remember the 3 yard out to Kincaid on 3rd and 10?

He often fails to see the open player and when he does, he too frequently throws an inaccurate pass

[Gman10]

5 hours ago, Rocbillsfan1 said:

Have you seen our coach though? 

A learning year, is this a joke lol. What is McDermott learning, how to continually be outcoached and lose games that statistically he shouldn’t? He’s highlighting if anything that he isn’t the right guy for the job.

No. Its learning that maybe McDermott isn't the best fit for us? What else to focus on etc

3 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Huge if but if were entertaining this hypothetical that we win out or finish 4-1 I don’t see why we couldn’t win the superbowl 

4-1? I think we go 2 and 3. Possibly 1-4

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

43 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

You should have paid more attention. You don't remember Gabe Davis running wide open to the endzone in the 3rd? You don't remember the 3 yard out to Kincaid on 3rd and 10?

He often fails to see the open player and when he does, he too frequently throws an inaccurate pass

 

My man.

 

You get it. SOMEONE gets it. I thought for a second I was going nuts.

 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Our coach was bad, but he didn't throw another INT making it 8 straight games, miss multiple wide open receivers, take dumb penalties that gave the other team life or drop passes right in his hands.

The whole team is playing poorly, which yes is a coaching problem, but not one that would be fixed this season if he were fired today.

Poor execution by your players will be a coaching issue till the end of time. The better elite coaches find ways to keep their players focused.  McDermott can't even focus on his own gameday duties.  And if Josh got us 4 tds and 1 int, I'd take that every week.

[colin]

i honestly think if pegula sits mcd down and says "it's playoffs or no job" then we have our best shot.

 

if mcd, fearing for his job, does not get any better, than the answer cannot be more clear to the ownership, he just sucks.

 

if he pulls off a miracle, then we have a miracle and a shot at the chip.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

27 minutes ago, Gman10 said:

No. Its learning that maybe McDermott isn't the best fit for us? What else to focus on etc

4-1? I think we go 2 and 3. Possibly 1-4

I said ‘if we are entertaining this hypothetical’. The point was i don’t see how we would necessarily be a one and done playoff team IF we get hot at the end of the season and finish 4-1.  I’m not predicting that it’s gonna happen.  The logic just makes no sense that you can beat those teams and couldn’t have playoff success.  A 4-1 finish means you had to have beaten minimum two playoff teams 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[vincec]

4 hours ago, mannc said:

Pipe dream of course, but no reason we can’t land a terrific WR in round 1, even without trading up. Rome O or Troy Franklin would be awesome.  One thing we’ve leaned from these loaded WR drafts is that there is no way to know which guy will turn out to be the best.

I don’t really think the Dolphins are better than we are, but they always beat the teams they should, and we don’t.  What makes us so high variance and the Dolphins low variance? Or maybe they are just better….

Miami is more consistent. Maybe that means they are better coached, but they are not better talent wise. If the Bills play their "A" game, then the Dolphins can't beat them, IMO.

11 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

...

 

If we win out: >99% chance of making it in

 

...

So, you're saying there is a chance?!?

[transplantbillsfan]

Just did a bunch of playoff simulators.

 

Obviously if we win out, we're in.  It'd be very, very hard for us not to get in winning out.

 

If Buffalo loses 1, I was actually surprised how many scenarios (plausible ones) they get in.

 

I just hope that's the offense we see the rest of the season.  If that's the offense (and more importantly, the Josh Allen) we see for the remainder of the season, anything is possible.

[JerseyBills]

We're going to whoop kc 

[VW82]

I said this other places but I'm apathetic about playoffs at this point. Even if we make it, this team is going nowhere. We can't stop tripping over ourselves, and the idea that we're going to now is to pretend like everything we've seen to date didn't happen.

 

I feel like there's a been a death, and there has: current group's (very realistic) chances at a Superbowl. We could have won it any of the last three seasons. 

 

I blame bad luck. I blame McBeane (even though they're responsible for our shot). I blame everyone including myself for getting sucked in when I know better.

 

At the same time, I'm grateful for the chance to cheer for a SB-worthy team, and in particular a SB-worthy player in Josh. I was so wrong about him. What a delight! 

 

But I can't get excited for the rest of these games. Our cap is F'd and we need to rebuild. We need a new coach. Most importantly, we need some new hope and that isn't going to happen anytime soon. 

[Governor]

5 hours ago, SCBills said:

The Offense played at an elite level yesterday.  Against a top defense, on the road, in bad weather.  
 

We ran 90+ plays.  1 turnover. 
 

His defensive starters were as healthy as they’ve been all season.   Nobody got hurt in game to stress the depth.  
 

McDermott, as usual, couldn’t get it done when it came to him as a HC and/or a DC.   
 

He failed us, again, on both fronts.  
 

Philly turned it over twice.  Philly’s playcalling for an entire half was ridiculous.   Sirianni, once again, found a way. 
 

The cherry on top…

 

They won the game on a play where they were in utter disbelief that anyone who watches film would give them that look.   They knew the game was over before they even snapped the ball. 
 

Sirianni > McDermott.  
 

McDermott never wins the chess match against the upper echelon coaches .. and it’s so, so noticeable. 

People here have totally lost their minds. When you score 34 points on offense and you have a defensive HC who sunk all of the teams resources into that defense for years, you should win 10 out of 10 times. It doesn’t matter “how” we got the 34 points or if Josh misses a throw here and there.

Edited November 28, 2023 by Governor

[Scott7975]

17 hours ago, Gman10 said:

Problem is we probably aren't beating all 3 of those teams. Id love it, but in two weeks we can easily be 6-7.

 

Yeah that is a problem.  We have the toughest remaining schedule in the league. Two of these games are going to be just as tough as the Philly game.  Josh is going to have to be the best player on the field for all of them just like he was last night.  He needs the help around him.  Bass can't miss two fgs for example. If that happens then we can run the table.

 

I agree with the other poster though.  If we do make it, Buffalo is not a team anyone wants to face.  We would be one of the best AFC teams in the playoffs if we pulled that off.  Every team in the AFC has flaws which is why the race is so tight this year.  We really blew it sticking with Dorsey.  We could be running for the 1 seed right now.  Instead that could be Baltimore or Miami that gets it.  KC might still get it but its not a given like years past.

17 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Which would be more heart wrenching?

 

Going 4-1 or 5-0 and losing agian in the wild-card or divisional rounds, or missing out.

 

Asking rhetorically, but who has any faith that even if we made it, that we'd do anything more.  

 

This "making the playoffs" thing, just like in the 90s, has gotten old.  

 

We have one of the best QBs in the game, the bar is significantly higher.  

 

 

 

I agree the bar is higher, but I just want to watch Bills football.  I don't want to be turning off my TV on Sundays early because I couldn't care less about watching any other team anymore.  Anything can happen in the playoffs.  If the offense really turned it around then this team is formidable.  There aren't any real scary teams in the AFC we can't hang with, as long as our O is clicking and Bass don't miss two damn FGs.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

9 hours ago, Governor said:

People here have totally lost their minds. When you score 34 points on offense and you have a defensive HC who sunk all of the teams resources into that defense for years, you should win 10 out of 10 times. It doesn’t matter “how” we got the 34 points or if Josh misses a throw here and there.

Somewhere in that plan, the 'complementary football' is letting you down. 🤔

[Ray Stonada]

If we do win out and make the playoffs that will buy McDermott another year from the Pegulas.

 

If we win a playoff game or better it probably buys him two more years.

 

If we get to the Super Bowl it buys him this board’s goodwill again.

 

(Unless we lose on a late defensive collapse…)

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

I agree the bar is higher, but I just want to watch Bills football.  I don't want to be turning off my TV on Sundays early because I couldn't care less about watching any other team anymore.  Anything can happen in the playoffs.  If the offense really turned it around then this team is formidable.  There aren't any real scary teams in the AFC we can't hang with, as long as our O is clicking and Bass don't miss two damn FGs.

 

Well, again, it was rhetorical.  In general I don't disagree.

 

I was simply asking which would be more heart-wrenching.  For me it would be underachieving in the playoffs as we now have a pattern of doing under McD, resulting in an egregious inexplicable loss.  

 

In shooting perfectly straight, I don't care much for the NFL.  It's a corrupt league with scripted games at least to some extent.  These official "mistakes" aren't always mistakes.  It's rampant now.  It's not longer driven by pure competition, it's driven by corporate greed.  If the Bills ever did move I would hardly if ever watch any games.  

 

The second that the NFL was directly linked to Vegas it was over.  

 

My only interest is our Bills.  I haven't watched a Super Bowl that we weren't in in years.  I hate the f'g commercials, the length of the game, the overly commercialized aspect to all of it.  It's not designed for football fans, it's designed to be a pop-culture attraction.  Even when I used to watch, I'd turn off or mute the entire halftime crap.  

 

But where I will disagree slightly with what you said, is that if I knew now that we'd "make the playoffs," but then lose decisively as we did last season with poor underachieving play and siht coaching, that would not be a fun, entertaining, much less enjoyable game to watch, for me.  So much so that I'd I knew ahead of time that that would happen, I probably wouldn't bother watching.   

 

Obviously we don't know these things in advance which is why we watch, so it's a weird angle.  But for me it'd be like watching your kid "play" baseball in the outfield, while he's thinking about bees and butterflies as the ball goes sailing over his mindless head.  

 

I think I'd be poking around on my phone at that point and asking my son why he's on the team after the game, suggesting that maybe he quit the team.  

 

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by PBF81

[Buffalo Streaker]

Was it therapeutic to finally talk about that childhood baseball situation? Go ahead, let it out.

[transplantbillsfan]

21 hours ago, VW82 said:

I said this other places but I'm apathetic about playoffs at this point. Even if we make it, this team is going nowhere. We can't stop tripping over ourselves, and the idea that we're going to now is to pretend like everything we've seen to date didn't happen.

 

I feel like there's a been a death, and there has: current group's (very realistic) chances at a Superbowl. We could have won it any of the last three seasons. 

 

I blame bad luck. I blame McBeane (even though they're responsible for our shot). I blame everyone including myself for getting sucked in when I know better.

 

At the same time, I'm grateful for the chance to cheer for a SB-worthy team, and in particular a SB-worthy player in Josh. I was so wrong about him. What a delight! 

 

But I can't get excited for the rest of these games. Our cap is F'd and we need to rebuild. We need a new coach. Most importantly, we need some new hope and that isn't going to happen anytime soon. 

 

If this is how you feel you have a short memory and don't understand how the NFL playoffs work. If you get in and you have an Elite QB, you have a chance to run the table and win the Super Bowl.

 

Just remember the 2021 season.  We played horribly for much of that season.  Even the end of the year when we won 4 straight were ugly wins.  Then we played the Patriots and KC in the playoffs and looked like the best team in the NFL, minus a collapse with 13 seconds.

 

Just get in.  Just ask the 2010 Green Bay Packers (10-6 Wildcard Super Bowl Winner), 2011 New York Giants (9-7 Wildcard Super Bowl Winner), 2012 Baltimore Ravens (10-6 Wildcard Super Bowl Winner), and 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5 Wildcard Super Bowl Winner).

 

Just get in.  We have Josh Allen.  Now it looks like we have an OC who knows what he's doing.  We have a chance.

[Lionel Hutz]

I don't get why so many of you are obsessed with making the playoffs. Have you been watching this team under McDermott the last few years? He can't win close games. Until he is gone the Bills have no chance of winning a championship.

[Buffalo03]

11 minutes ago, Lionel Hutz said:

I don't get why so many of you are obsessed with making the playoffs. Have you been watching this team under McDermott the last few years? He can't win close games. Until he is gone the Bills have no chance of winning a championship.

He doesn't win all close games but he has won quite a few

[Dablitzkrieg]

[vincec]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

He doesn't win all close games but he has won quite a few

His record in one score games in Buffalo is 24-24 in the regular season, and 2-3 in the playoffs, which seems reasonable. But I think the concern is that in the last three years, when the Bills have supposedly had his best teams, it’s 8-14 in the regular season and 1-1 in the playoffs. You would not expect that record from a top 5 NFL team. So, either the Bills have just gotten really unlucky the last few years or something is wrong. I’m not sure the problem is McDermott necessarily, but he is in charge of figuring it out.

Edited November 29, 2023 by vincec

[schoolhouserock]

On 11/27/2023 at 8:53 AM, boyst said:

tank and move all in to get MHJ.

I second this motion. All in favor?

[Ray Stonada]

44 minutes ago, schoolhouserock said:

I second this motion. All in favor?

Tanking when you are .500 or above feels crazy…

[Nextmanup]

On 11/27/2023 at 8:56 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

It’s hard to get anyone to tank in the nfl. They are playing for their jobs and if you go half speed in football, you can get lit up, 

No athletes, in any sport, on any team, have ever "tanked" in this sense.

 

Tanking does mean "players try to lose." It means management assembles a team maybe including coaching that, trying its best every game, is not very likely to be successful.

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 11/27/2023 at 6:02 AM, Ray Stonada said:

About our playoff chances:

 

We have 6 losses.

 

The division leaders are Miami, KC, Baltimore, and Jax.

 

There are 3 wildcard spots, and currently there are FIVE other teams with less than 6 losses, most of which have a better conference record.

 

No matter what we do, other than win out, it's gonna be tough.

 

I'm starting to wish we would lose the next two weeks and end the misery.

We'll know after the KC game where we stand.  I think these guys would play hard for Brady, but what do you do with McDermott?  Kidnap him or lock him in the basement. 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 11/27/2023 at 8:24 AM, PBF81 said:

Which would be more heart wrenching?

 

Going 4-1 or 5-0 and losing agian in the wild-card or divisional rounds, or missing out.

 

Asking rhetorically, but who has any faith that even if we made it, that we'd do anything more.  

 

This "making the playoffs" thing, just like in the 90s, has gotten old.  

 

We have one of the best QBs in the game, the bar is significantly higher.  

 

 

We're only winning 2 more games.  NE & the Chargers.  We're finishing 8-9 which might get us Odunze?  Realistically the season was lost somewhere between Dorsey starting his 2nd season and Milano going down.  Everything bad we saw from McDermott had already been exposed a long time ago.

[PBF81]

11 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We're only winning 2 more games.  NE & the Chargers.  We're finishing 8-9 which might get us Odunze?  Realistically the season was lost somewhere between Dorsey starting his 2nd season and Milano going down.  Everything bad we saw from McDermott had already been exposed a long time ago.

 

The last five are going to be interesting.  

 

KC's better than we are.  Miami's more consistent.  We haven't won @ Chargers since the Knox/Fergy days.  Belichick will outcoach us, whether we win or not remains to be seen.  Dallas, at home, they're a better and more well-rounded team.