Allen played well, Spencer Brown always needs help, Spacing issues on offense, and more PFF stats

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

@EinsteinThanks for the info.

 

Any chance you can help me out and share what PFF says, if anything, on the Buffalo blitzes on third down? I have a bet with someone who says they blitzed "every third done" and I need some conclusive evidence. If all PFF has is the overall number of Buffalo blitzes that may help too (if it's lower than the number of third downs that Jags had).

many thanks. 🍻

 

Definitely was not every third down. But they blitzed too much for my tastes yesterday (although I am the ultimate anti-blitzer so doesn't take many to be too much for my tastes). Don't know if that was McDermott just feeling he couldn't sit back in coverage down 2 corners and Milano by play 11. They got burned on a couple for definite. 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Josh this season has literally played one bad half of football. The difference in this game that PFF noted above when Josh is your leading rusher with 23 yards and Etienne was their leading rusher with 126 that was this game in a nutshell. 

 

This is a game where we should have gone with a bunch of designed Josh Allen runs. I know everyone wants those stricken from the gameplan for some reason. But the Jags were playing man coverage which means coverage players have their back to the QB. The pass catchers were not separating, the blocking on passes and runs was not holding up. In situations like that you have to take the leash off of Josh and let him be a little reckless.

 

Everyone wants Josh to play "normal" QB within the structure of the offense. But what about when the structure isn't working?

[GoBills808]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Definitely was not every third down. But they blitzed too much for my tastes yesterday (although I am the ultimate anti-blitzer so doesn't take many to be too much for my tastes). Don't know if that was McDermott just feeling he couldn't sit back in coverage down 2 corners and Milano by play 11. They got burned on a couple for definite. 

The big third down and four w 3 mins left blitz that left Hyde in man on Ridley was really tough 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The big third down and four w 3 mins left blitz that left Hyde in man on Ridley was really tough 

 

Yep. Hated that call.

[Motorin']

1 hour ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Josh this season has literally played one bad half of football. The difference in this game that PFF noted above when Josh is your leading rusher with 23 yards and Etienne was their leading rusher with 126 that was this game in a nutshell. 

 

It's not that we couldn't run the ball. It's that we didn't try to run the ball, expect for shotgun draws. 

 

Not one run from under center with Cook. Maybe one or two all game? 

 

 

[Bangarang]

I’m just going to keep harping on Dorsey because it’s been a problem since he’s been an OC.

 

Our route concepts are really bad. Way too many times we’ve seen multiple receivers within yards of each other. We paid Harty a good salary but we only know how to get him the ball with screens that don’t go anywhere. We know Cook is a weapon catching the ball but we literally can’t scheme a RB screen to save our lives or get him the ball on crossers. We all know the struggles with watching Kincaid run 3 yard routes and then get dumped to the ground. 
 

It’s really a mismanagement of personnel and that’s on Dorsey.

Edited October 9, 2023 by Bangarang

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

I don't understand how in all 6 receptions Elam seemed to have exactly zero safety help over top.

 

@HoofHearted mentioned that Elam did have safety help a few times but incorrectly played his leverage which made the safety help inconsequential. If the safety is playing inside leverage and Elam gives up outside leverage, it will look like there is no safety help. I have no clue how after two years in McDermott's defense he doesn't understand such a fundamental aspect of our coverage scheme but that is probably why he hasn't been active.

[pocoboy]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Why the stubborn, insistence on running out of shotgun with Cook on delayed/draw plays that TAKE TOO LONG?

 

It's like Dorsey grabbed the wrong binder...

[dave mcbride]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Definitely was not every third down. But they blitzed too much for my tastes yesterday (although I am the ultimate anti-blitzer so doesn't take many to be too much for my tastes). Don't know if that was McDermott just feeling he couldn't sit back in coverage down 2 corners and Milano by play 11. They got burned on a couple for definite. 

Watching that game, I felt they HAD to blitz a lot given the loss of Jones, the loss of an elite cover LB in Milano and the fact that Elam couldn't hold coverage on anyone. With time and Elam out there, I felt Lawrence had an easy completion at hand on every passing play. They blitzed out of desperation, but they were right to be desperate.

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, Motorin' said:

 

It's not that we couldn't run the ball. It's that we didn't try to run the ball, expect for shotgun draws. 

 

Not one run from under center with Cook. Maybe one or two all game? 

 

 

I like Murray on those types of runs more than Cook as well. He doesn’t need as much space and hits the whole quicker. I don’t dislike Cook , but I don’t see him as that type of RB. 

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. Hated that call.

I dunno - they forced him to make a difficult throw, but Lawrence made the play. As McDermott said in the press conference, it was a 3rd and 4 passing play, and he implied that he had little faith in guys' ability to cover. They felt their only chance was getting to the QB. I agree with him. As he said, Lawrence just made a great -- and difficult -- throw.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

Watching that game, I felt they HAD to blitz a lot given the loss of Jones, the loss of an elite cover LB in Milano and the fact that Elam couldn't hold coverage on anyone. With time and Elam out there, I felt Lawrence had an easy completion at hand on every passing play. They blitzed out of desperation, but they were right to be desperate.

 

I think they probably thought that way too. I dunno. I still just think this defense is not at its best as a blitz heavy D. They were running blitzes early v the Dolphins too and they played much better once they just settled in and played their standard gap disciplined defense and mixed up their zone looks. I do get that the situation was different with the absences yesterday. But it would take a lot for me to think this defense is best served by blitzing a ton.

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

I dunno - they forced him to make a difficult throw, but Lawrence made the play. As McDermott said in the press conference, it was a 3rd and 4 passing play, and he implied that he had little faith in guys' ability to cover. They felt their only chance was getting to the QB. I agree with him. As he said, Lawrence just made a great -- and difficult -- throw.

 

It was a vey good throw. Still hated the call. 

[Motorin']

Just now, Boatdrinks said:

I like Murray on those types of runs more than Cook as well. He doesn’t need as much space and hits the whole quicker. I don’t dislike Cook , but I don’t see him as that type of RB. 

 

I like Cook running off tackle and on stretch plays. And if he's going to run up the gut I still prefer it to be from under center.

 

But all of that aside, the passing game works so much better with play action from under center than any other formation. 

 

We didn't need to run the ball 25 times with our backs, but 25 plays from under center with 10 runs and 15 passes would have completely altered the game.

[DuckyBoys]

I think they should start under center and run Murray/Harris downhill with both te's in the game  Everything else will build off that  Enough of the endless empty shotgun looks and giving it to hook from the shotgun draw  Really can't ask for more from Josh Allen and I disagree we can take the loss but dont need to revert to using Josh as a battering ram.  He's the open Super Bowl window  Its up to Beane to find depth /better talent  

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think they probably thought that way too. I dunno. I still just think this defense is not at its best as a blitz heavy D. They were running blitzes early v the Dolphins too and they played much better once they just settled in and played their standard gap disciplined defense and mixed up their zone looks. I do get that the situation was different with the absences yesterday. But it would take a lot for me to think this defense is best served by blitzing a ton.

I'm not a fan of blitz-heavy defenses myself. But they were literally missing half the starting lineup (more than half after Epenesa went out due to exhaustion/cramping and Miller due to pitch count) and were practically fielding a game-two-of-preseason squad out there.  It forces teams to gamble. I get it. It's certainly not McDermott's preferred approach, though.

 

That whole locale situation -- 10 days in London for the Jags and the Bills' idiotic approach to the travel schedule -- pisses me off.  

Edited October 9, 2023 by dave mcbride

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

I'm not a fan of blitz-heavy defenses myself. But they were literally missing half the starting lineup (more than half after Epenesa went out due to exhaustion/cramping and Miller due to pitch count) and were practically fielding a game-two-of-preseason squad out there.  It forces teams to gamble. I get it. It's certainly not McDermott's preferred approach, though.

 

That whole locale situation -- 10 days in London for the Jags and the Bills' idiotic approach to the travel schedule -- pisses me off.  

 

Agree on the latter. And I do totally see your point on the former, just not sure I'd have gone the same way. 

[Royale with Cheese]

25 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The big third down and four w 3 mins left blitz that left Hyde in man on Ridley was really tough 

 

I was pretty upset with that call.

 

McDermott must have felt our rush wasn't going to get there at all.

 

But I also think it made it completely predictable.  We could have called the blitz play ever but it wouldn't have worked because Jax knew it was coming.

[Buffalo716]

15 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I dunno - they forced him to make a difficult throw, but Lawrence made the play. As McDermott said in the press conference, it was a 3rd and 4 passing play, and he implied that he had little faith in guys' ability to cover. They felt their only chance was getting to the QB. I agree with him. As he said, Lawrence just made a great -- and difficult -- throw.

Yea it's not a terrible call in the moment.. I understand it

 

We haven't been able to cover all day .. zero blitz is going to make a quick decision and throw

 

Micah is experienced and has been great in man coverage his entire career ... even at corner 

 

There's literally probably only a 20% chance of that ball being completed pre play .. with the blitz and difficulty of the throw 

 

It was a better throw to counter the call ... but Ridley is much better in zone than man , so you go at their guy and don't let him sit in a zone 

[LABILLBACKER]

Unfortunately Cook pass protects about as well as Brown.  No doubt in my mind we draft a RT early next year and a LT the following year. The only way to improve the run game is to embrace Josh behind center all year long.  And finally somehow I don't see us getting our money's worth out of Harty.  He has made a couple key plays but his volume is terrible. 

[boco357]

Gotta move on from Cook faster next time and lean on Harris and Murray.

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

I'm tired of this football geek nonsense.

 

Anyone with a real football IQ that has actually watched the games knows that Allen continues to be a liability against any team not jockeying for the 1st round pick in next year's draft. Yes he'll play that one regular season superbowl type game every year (i.e. last week against Miami) but he just doesn't have a steady hand like the GOAT Mahomes.

 

Speaking of Mahomes he's 3-0 against Trevor Laurence, Allen 0-2. Enough said!

 

The high IQ doesn't extend to spelling I see.

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, High Football IQ said:

I'm tired of this football geek nonsense.

 

Anyone with a real football IQ that has actually watched the games knows that Allen continues to be a liability against any team not jockeying for the 1st round pick in next year's draft. Yes he'll play that one regular season superbowl type game every year (i.e. last week against Miami) but he just doesn't have a steady hand like the GOAT Mahomes.

 

Speaking of Mahomes he's 3-0 against Trevor Laurence, Allen 0-2. Enough said!

Allen has gone into Arrowhead twice and beat the Chiefs

 

The bills also lost on an epic defensive collapse

 

Josh  is really close to being 3-2 over your goat 

[finn]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I don't understand if its Allen who passes up on the Tight Ends or it's Dorsey not making them a primary read.  Allen has said he's seen Kincaid open but decided to go somewhere else.  

 

Whatever it is, we need to get them involved.

Could be that he's staying in to help Brown, so his routes are shorter. 

[Einstein]

23 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

Anyone with a real football IQ that has actually watched the games knows that Allen continues to be a liability against any team not jockeying for the 1st round pick in next year's draft. Yes he'll play that one regular season superbowl type game every year (i.e. last week against Miami) but he just doesn't have a steady hand like the GOAT Mahomes.

 

Speaking of Mahomes he's 3-0 against Trevor Laurence, Allen 0-2. Enough said!

Allen has won 2 of his last 3 games against Mahomes. And in the one game he lost, he left the field with the lead (and only 13 seconds left).

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

• 1) Dodson played 62% of the snaps. Dorian played 36%. Dodson was by far the higher graded of the two, with an 85.5 grade compared to a 32.7 for Dorian. PFF has Dorian missing 40% of his attempted tackles. They are essentially saying that he was flying to the ball, but not finishing.

 

• 2) Allen had the highest CPAE (Completion Percentage Above Expectation) in the NFL this week at 8%. This means Allen completed 8% more of his passes than he should have. Allen’s adjusted completion % (completions + drops / aimed) was 86%.

 

• 3) I don’t know what we are going to do about Spencer Brown. The Bills are giving him help on more than 50% of his snaps and he is still well below the mean. This chart shows how often NFL tackles are left on an island (no help). Brown is 2nd to last in the entire NFL. The only player needing more help is Jermaine Eluemunor, who Raiders fans universally want released.

 

 

 

 

• 4) With play-action, Allen completed 87.5% of his passes with a 14.9 YPA yesterday. He completed 62.5% of his passes with a 7.5 YPA without play action. To really drive this point home, look at his EPA per play both with play-action and without. He has a 3x larger EPA per play with play-action than without.

 

 

 

• 5) Kingsley Jonathan was the highest rated Bills defensive player yesterday at a 92.1. He had 2 hurries, 1 sack, 2 stops and 1 forced fumble. Epenesa was right behind him at 85.7.

 

 

• 6) James Cook had an 11.3 pass block grade, which is the lowest I can personally recall ever seeing. Damien Harris had an 82.3 pass block grade.

 

 

• 7) DaQuan left the game after the 4th play. Milano left the game after the 11th play. Rousseau never played. Tre White never played. Benford never played. That’s FIVE starters out. Yet the defense still forced 2 turnovers and 5 punts. 

 

 

• 8- Dawkins really struggled yesterday, especially with the other Josh Allen. It was clear from watching the game and PFF saw it too. He had the lowest pass blocking grade of all the linemen. 

 

 

• 9) McDermott mentioned after the game that it’s hard to win when you can’t run. EPA shows that he is correct. Our EPA per dropback was top 10 in the NFL this week. Our running EPA was towards the bottom in the NFL.

 

 

 

 

• 10) Elam gave up 6 receptions for 93 yards and was eventually benched. No other Bills player gave up more than 3 receptions. Dane gave up 3 receptions for 30 yards.

 

 

• 11) Taron Johnson was very vocal after the game about how poor the turf was. Mentioned his feet would get stuck. For those interested you can see his comments here.

 

 

• 12) Spacing has felt off all season long. There are 4 Bills receiving options, all within 10 yards of each other. We are not making them defend every blade of grass. We are making them defend a very small piece of grass. This was a big 3rd down that we didn't convert.

 

 

 

• 13) I have absolutely no idea what we gave Harty a $10M contract for. He played roughly 25% of the snaps this week and is averaging 2.2 receptions per game. His special teams contribution has been 5 returns for 40 yards. I just genuinely don’t understand what the plan is for him.

 

• 14) Last note on Allen. HIs passing chart shows solid numbers to all areas and depths of the field.

 

 

 

 

• 15) Lastly, Ben Johnson is the most innovative, fun, creative play caller I have ever seen. I hope he is hired by an NFC team. This is one of the many plays he calls. It constantly keeps defenses guessing.

 

 

1. Yeah, the defense was missing tackles left and right.  Especially as attrition set in.  Its hard to blame the defense because they held for the most part.  Some of that was because they got a turn over. Part of their attrition was not getting off the field on 3rd downs even if the Jags didn't score. 

 

2. Josh had a good game. People blaming Josh this week are out of their minds

 

3. I been saying all year that Brown is a problem and get told I am wrong

 

4. Everyone but Dorsey sees that Josh under center and playaction is the way to go. I'm getting tired of seeing shotgun handoff and shotgun spread.

 

6. Cook was terrible this week

 

7. We were definitely short handed. It is a concern going forward. The injuries are much more a problem than the loss is.

 

8. I didn't pay attention to individual struggles but the line definitely struggled this week as a whole. It was part of the offensive problem this week.

 

9. Yup, our run game sucked

 

10. Elam was terrible. I don't get it. He was slow to react to route changes, was shaken out of his shoes, was 5 yards off the receptions. Last year he stuck to people like glue, so I don't understand why he is struggling this year.

 

11.  As he should be

 

12. I been banging the table about spacing all year and this spans back to last season. Every game we see receivers all bunched in the same area.  No one else seemed concerned about that.

 

13. Dorsey seems to have trouble working anyone into this offense. He couldn't work Hines in who is a good pass catching back, he isn't using Cook properly, he has no plan for any of the receivers.  I just don't think he is a very good or creative OC.  Sure, he has good games like Miami, but I think his good games are more from a result of having Josh Allen than it is him being a good OC

 

14. As I said above, Allen had a good game and anyone blaming him is out of their minds. This was not the Jets game.

 

 

[Old Coot]

3 hours ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

The spacing point is a bit concerning.  I wonder if that is  a product of Dorsey’s design or guys just not understanding where they are supposed to be? 

Agreed. If by design Dorsey must have a reason. Could it be to give Josh some quick reads?

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

The big third down and four w 3 mins left blitz that left Hyde in man on Ridley was really tough 

Yep. I bet Lawrence noticed it and knew he had a one-on-one advantage.

 

Those who live by the blitz die by the blitz if the unblocked rusher doesn't get home in time.

[bouds]

I’m not just saying that because of this week, but I feel Harris needs more run, with Cook coming in to change the pace.  There’s a reason he’s always been the second option, he lacks things that you need every down, and pass pro is huge on a team that rosters and starts Spencer Brown.

 

I appreciate the work you put into the thread. Love reading it. Agree about Johnson, he’s been doing a great job the last two seasons. 

[Kornfed]

Chris Brown mentioned today that the Jags D was best in the league against 12 personnel coming into the game. I've not been down on Dorsey and have reminded some friends that the Bills are/were adjusting to the new (12) offense. Well, I can't imagine the Bills not knowing about the Jags D verses 12 being best. That said, where were the adjustments? They bring a safety into the box, ya may wanna consider trying to get Knox or Kincade open on some moderate/deeper seam routes. ..... Starting to become concerned about Dorsey. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

11-7 for the entire 3rd quarter, and the Bills ran the ball a total of 3 times in the second half. 

 

Once to Damien Harris under Center for 5 yards. 

 

Twice to Cook out of Shotgun for -2 yards (one of those was with 5:00 minutes to go behind two scores). 

 

So when McDermott talks about how he wanted to run more but couldn't establish the line of scrimmage, that's just a cliche answer that wasn't pushed back on at all. 

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[CSBill]

4 hours ago, Einstein said:

12) Spacing has felt off all season long. There are 4 Bills receiving options, all within 10 yards of each other. We are not making them defend every blade of grass. We are making them defend a very small piece of grass. This was a big 3rd down that we didn't convert.

 

I agree. I have wondered all season why we always seem to have receivers running into or near each other. Can't this be easily fixed? Make the Defense defend the entire field--and this also makes you much more susceptible to interceptions.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

32 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I understand the sentiment but I have a hard time blaming Dorsey for this. The o-line was being bench pressed by the Jags d-line. Run plays would be wasted plays.

But wait, WGR told me that it was the Jets that are just a bad matchup for the Bills offense.

 

Now it’s the Jags too?

[Einstein]

18 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

But wait, WGR told me that it was the Jets that are just a bad matchup for the Bills offense.

 

Now it’s the Jags too?

 

Any d-line that can wreak havoc on an o-line is a bad matchup for any team.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Confused about Johnathan. 

[34-78-83]

23 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Yeah I mean we lost the LOS battle on nearly every snap.

At first I thought it was a rub play with Knox clearing out.

But then he didn't. 

And then we had 3 players all running to the strongside boundary. It just seems asinine. 

Erik Turner brought up the same play w/ Cover 1... He couldn't figure out if Knox was free styling bc the rub should have occurred naturally between the 2 crossers. Also seems like Cook ran his route in the wrong direction.

 

You made some excellent and accurate points in your original post.

 

I disagree a little with the Harty point. Although you're right that his use has been limited. He contributed positively to the output this week. Needs to be in on a few more snaps and down field routes.... Sherfield also, in a different way of course, although he is getting snaps.

[Freak-O]

On 10/9/2023 at 7:52 PM, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

This is great thank you!

 

The spacing point is a bit concerning.  I wonder if that is  a product of Dorsey’s design or guys just not understanding where they are supposed to be? 

Either Dorsey is just bad or the players really dumb.  I get someone getting the play wrong and being in the wrong place, but all four of them being at the same place? That’s just odd. 

[DapperCam]

On 10/9/2023 at 2:21 PM, Straight Hucklebuck said:

This is another game that goes into the Daboll/Dorsey pile of why didn't we try to run the ball more? It's a one score game and it's just pass-pass-pass-pass, meanwhile the TOP just got more and more lopsided as the game went on. 

 

At the start of the 4th the Jags had the ball for 29 minutes, and the Bills were at 15 minutes. 

 

We conclude we couldn't run the ball yesterday, but what is Harris and Murray going to do on 6 combined carries?

 

Why the stubborn, insistence on running out of shotgun with Cook on delayed/draw plays that TAKE TOO LONG?

It does feel like if they slammed Murray or Harris into the line for 3 ypc the entire game we would have been a lot better off.

 

It would have kept the Jags pass rushers from pinning their ears back, made for more manageable 2nd/3rd down, and kept the TOP closer. The final Jags scores were because the Bills defense was exhausted.

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by DapperCam

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

23 hours ago, boco357 said:

Gotta move on from Cook faster next time and lean on Harris and Murray.

Yes I agree. I thought Cook looked like he was sleep walking right from the beginning. Harris did well when given the chance. I don't get the reluctance to give Harris especially more play. He is good.

[finn]

On 10/9/2023 at 4:01 PM, High Football IQ said:

I'm tired of this football geek nonsense.

 

Anyone with a real football IQ that has actually watched the games knows that Allen continues to be a liability against any team not jockeying for the 1st round pick in next year's draft. Yes he'll play that one regular season superbowl type game every year (i.e. last week against Miami) but he just doesn't have a steady hand like the GOAT Mahomes.

 

Speaking of Mahomes he's 3-0 against Trevor Laurence, Allen 0-2. Enough said!

Is this post supposed to be sarcastic, playful, ironic, satirical? If so, I admire the advanced humor. Love the "High Football IQ." Good stuff! 

 

If you're serious, well, yikes. Hope your family is taking care of you. 

[Xwnyer]

Point 12.  This has been an issue all of last year and this.  Either this offense is designed for all receivers to be near each other or all have hot reads and all end up going in the same area.  Makes it very easy to defend.  This offense needs to be spread out with space between receivers.

[Warcodered]

On 10/9/2023 at 2:23 PM, Bangarang said:

I’m just going to keep harping on Dorsey because it’s been a problem since he’s been an OC.

 

Our route concepts are really bad. Way too many times we’ve seen multiple receivers within yards of each other. We paid Harty a good salary but we only know how to get him the ball with screens that don’t go anywhere. We know Cook is a weapon catching the ball but we literally can’t scheme a RB screen to save our lives or get him the ball on crossers. We all know the struggles with watching Kincaid run 3 yard routes and then get dumped to the ground. 
 

It’s really a mismanagement of personnel and that’s on Dorsey.

So it doesn't make sense for a bunch of them to all end up at the same place, but I think there are plays where there could be still where they're together to create traffic before they separate, at least I have to wonder if that's what it is or if someone ran the wrong route because that just makes so little sense.