The Big Win Effect - Dolphins Beware

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, nucci said:

My current black lab is 15  and I have to make that decision soon.

 

We have a 3 month old to go with the 3 year old. We lost the 14 year old last summer, the longest one has ever lasted for me. The 3 year old had never been alone before, and when we brought the pup home a few months later she was the happiest creature I’ve ever seen. Good luck, you’ll know when it’s time. I get it. 

[PonyBoy]

20 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Man’s best friend doesn’t talk back or feel sorry for themselves. I have two Goldens again/still. Talk about best friends!!!

 

We had back to back Goldens. My vet told us once there's dog's and then there are Goldens. Very true.

Have a Vizsla/ Golden mix. Unbelievable temperament! 

[Augie]

Just now, PonyBoy said:

 

We had back to back Goldens. My vet told us once there's dog's and then there are Goldens. Very true.

Have a Vizsla/ Golden mix. Unbelievable temperament! 

 

I’m on my 7th and 8th Goldens. I’ve had them all my life. Our son married a girl who came from a huge family (one of 6 daughters) all owning at least one labradoodle, so they got one of those. They BOTH agree the next dog will be a Golden. 

[Fleezoid]

31 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Man’s best friend doesn’t talk back or feel sorry for themselves. I have two Goldens again/still. Talk about best friends!!!

 

Be careful. Anything can happen....

 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

If we turn it over like we did in those close victories, we will lose IMO

 

Yeah, I'm not seeing a lot of room for TOs here. 

 

I also don't think that we leave this game with anyone thinking that our D played well.  

 

This has the hallmarks of a trackmeet written all over it.  

 

Also, keep in mind, that last two games featured 8 takeaways and only 1 INT/TO.  

 

Miami's had only 5 takeaways so far this season, still good, and about the same TOs with 3.  

 

 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

1 hour ago, nucci said:

Why...why shouldn't Dolphin fans be excited about their team? and I am a pretty good guy. Just don't like hypocrisy

Thing is, is the way you put it there's no reason to compare notes. To me it was snarky. it was like okay well let me go ahead and defend those fins fans and they're board by comparing them to Bill's fans on their board. And I'm sure you are a swell guy. it was just in the moment and that's how I responded. Go Bills 😁

[WhoTom]

19 minutes ago, nucci said:

My current black lab is 15  and I have to make that decision soon.

 

Our black lab mix (Shadow) was fifteen. We had to have him put down earlier this year. His ten-year-old brother Rocky (terrier mix) has been lonely, so last week we adopted a ten-year-old beagle. We both prefer labs or goldens, but we wanted something smaller this time. "Stanley" was on sale at the animal shelter, so we figured he was at or near the top of the list to be euthanized, so we decided to rescue him.

 

Rocky and Stanley:

 

[nucci]

2 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

Thing is, is the way you put it there's no reason to compare notes. To me it was snarky. it was like okay well let me go ahead and defend those fins fans and they're board by comparing them to Bill's fans on their board. And I'm sure you are a swell guy. it was just in the moment and that's how I responded. Go Bills 😁

we're good

[Einstein]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

This is to Miami as last years KC match up was to Buffalo. 
 

I’ll take an L this week if it means we mirror KC in 2022.

 

There are no must win games this early in the season, but this game is extremely important.

 

Going down 0-2 in the division and 1-2 in the conference and Miami going to 4-0 with two cupcake teams coming up on their schedule is not a great scenario.

 

I really think we need this W.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

1 hour ago, dorquemada said:

 

Go look at finheaven.  they're expecting an easy win.  score another 70, and injure josh allen, all in the first quarter

 

 

The fans are one thing. I can guarantee you the players aren’t. Miami has been Buffalo’s b**** for awhile. 

[MiracleAtRich1393]

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

IDK, our last three games vs. them have been a loss, then in the two wins, one with Skylar Thompson at QB, they lost 34-31 and 32-29. 

 

In that last one, in the heavy snow, in Buffalo, Tua posted an excellent game and their rushing game put up nearly 200 yards on over 7 ypc.  That was without Achane.  

 

IMO this game will come down to how well we defend their running game.  

 

 

Also, I thought that we had a pretty emotional win last week too, matching our second highest scoring game of last season.  

 

 

Game 1 we had Jaquan Johnson, Damar Hamlin, Dane Jackson, and Tremaine Edmunds covering Hill & Waddle plus the backup o-line for an already bad O-line in 130 degree heat. Games 2 & 3 we had a shell of Tre White plus no Von Miller.

 

Replace Jaquan/Hamlin with Poyer/Hyde, Dane with good Tre, Tremaine with a promising matchup LB Bernard, Leonard Floyd in for the Von Miller void, add O'Cyrus/McGovern to the OLine, Kincaid to keep the chains moving, and a UCL for Josh plus 75 & sunny and I'm feeling pretty good

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Running up the score is bad Karma 

That's what will kill the Dolphins 

 

NFL has points made as factor in ties for standings so I do not think it is bad karma unless someone gets hurt especially on a scoring celebration.

[HOUSE]

1 minute ago, Limeaid said:

 

NFL has points made as factor in ties for standings so I do not think it is bad karma unless someone gets hurt especially on a scoring celebration.

That's an old Bill Bellichick excuse after he ran the score on the Bills. points scored in like 6 down the list of tie breakers , nope bad Karma, wait and see 

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Fleezoid said:

 

Be careful. Anything can happen....

 

 

That fear is why I keep my gun on the top shelf, and we don’t have a cat who could be an accomplice. 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

Game 1 we had Jaquan Johnson, Damar Hamlin, Dane Jackson, and Tremaine Edmunds covering Hill & Waddle plus the backup o-line for an already bad O-line in 130 degree heat. Games 2 & 3 we had a shell of Tre White plus no Von Miller.

 

Replace Jaquan/Hamlin with Poyer/Hyde, Dane with good Tre, Tremaine with a promising matchup LB Bernard, Leonard Floyd in for the Von Miller void, add O'Cyrus/McGovern to the OLine, Kincaid to keep the chains moving, and a UCL for Josh plus 75 & sunny and I'm feeling pretty good

 

We'll see on Sunday.    

 

GO BILLS!!!  

 

 

[theRalph]

If this thread had to go off-topic, bless those who made it DOGS!!

[AuntieEm]

I'm gonna go with 

 

 

Bills 43   

Dolphins 0

 

Yes the Bills shock the league as they shutdown Miami.  

[theRalph]

7 minutes ago, AuntieEm said:

Bills 43   

Dolphins 0

 

Yes the Bills shock the league as they shutdown Miami.

No less improbable than 70-20 last week.

[frostbitmic]

Is this the game they give everybody a free snowball with admission ?

[QLBillsFan]

4 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Running up the score is bad Karma 

That's what will kill the Dolphins 

The backup QB threw a TD pass so that’s a bit sketch. But otherwise they seemed to appear as not trying to set the record. The extreme heat field side (talk about player S issue).. and a team that quit =70. If it were reversed and Bills put up 70 I would be just a bit concerned it was too easy. 

[billsfanmiamioh]

6 hours ago, PonyBoy said:

 

We had back to back Goldens. My vet told us once there's dog's and then there are Goldens. Very true.

Have a Vizsla/ Golden mix. Unbelievable temperament! 

 

6 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I’m on my 7th and 8th Goldens. I’ve had them all my life. Our son married a girl who came from a huge family (one of 6 daughters) all owning at least one labradoodle, so they got one of those. They BOTH agree the next dog will be a Golden. 

My wife grew up with goldens and we’re on our first. They’re simply the best. Our girl will be 2 in a couple weeks, prob add another into the mix within a year or so.
 

Our 15 year old cat has even learned to accept the dog and while they won’t lay ON each other, I’ll regularly find them laying pretty close to each other. 
 

 

[Jimmy Harris 69]

Miami scored 24 against a good New England Defense. That game is more of a comparable, as are the thriller three—-Bills-Dolphins from 2022. These teams will score 75–combined. The Denver game is an outlier. Denver is now officially playing for a first overall pick. The Russ trade will go down historically as Hershel Walker part two, or the New Orleans 99 draft class for Ricky Williams, or heck —-Rodgers to jets. This is a better Bills defense. If it’s combined with a patient offense, everybody at stadium gets a tuna melt on Sunday 😕

[Utah John]

Also working against the Dolphins is the fact that they won't have the opposing team sitting in the baking sun while they're in the shade.  The same thing that happened to the Bills last year caught the Broncos last Sunday.  

 

If the Dolphins expect the Bills to be too wiped out to play well, they could be a little too overconfident.  

 

What's the over/under on sacks of Tua?  (It would be bad form to ask for the o/u on Tua concussions, wouldn't it?)

[Peace Frog]

[Thurman#1]

18 hours ago, theRalph said:

There's an old saying about scoring too many points—beware, you made need some of those points next week. This is an example of the early big-win effect, a subject that's been deeply studied by psychologists.  An early-season big win, without losses to aggravate the effect, creates a super-high with the team (its a huge dopamine effect). 

 

A good hit of dopamine is the best chemical high a human or a team can experience, but it's a double-edged sword, because the human or team will want the high again, but the standard for it was set at 70 points. Now, Miami didn't intend on scoring 70 vs. Denver, but since they did, that's their standard. They will try to repeat that performance—which based on the history of the league, is highly unlikely. This will cause frustration. Had their 70-point win occurred in, say, week 13, there would be a feeling on that team of having worked toward that pinnacle. Because it was achieved so early in the season that won't happen. 

 

This not to predict a Bills' win, but Miami will spend the season trying to reproduce the "mile-high" feeling they got at sea level in the stadium formerly known as Joe Robbie.

 

 

While I do agree wtih this, 37-3 isn't exactly a squeaker either.

[SoMAn]

For a long time I've theorized this phenomenon may be a contributing factor for things like the infamous 'Sports Illustrated Cover Curse'. There are always going to be ebbs and flows.

Naturally, when an athlete or team has a remarkably outstanding performance, they get cover stories, but they're also statistically bound for a lull. There are valleys between mountains.

Sports books make a living off of gamblers playing 'follow the leader' with an unexpected fail by a highly touted competitor.

I like the Bills chances this weekend.

[The Gravytrain]

21 hours ago, Beast said:

Bills 51-3.

 

Then SB 25.

 

 

I don’t think Miami will be over confident.

 

If anything, they’ve had this game circled after the playoff game last season.

 

I expect Miami’s best effort.

 

And a Bills victory.

 

Sounds vaguely familiar to the AFC Championship game blowout score over the Jay Schrader led Raiders. Go Bills!

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by The Gravytrain
left out championship

[theRalph]

On 9/28/2023 at 5:03 PM, Limeaid said:

NFL has points made as factor in ties for standings so I do not think it is bad karma unless someone gets hurt especially on a scoring celebration.

When you're up three or four scores in the 4Q, you DON'T keep sticking it in the other team's ass. It is most certainly bad Karma.

[Punching Bag]

17 minutes ago, theRalph said:

When you're up three or four scores in the 4Q, you DON'T keep sticking it in the other team's ass. It is most certainly bad Karma.

 

If you have backups in there who have not got much playing time and they can score you score.

If opposing team is down and is scoring or close to scoring the team needs to ensure opponent that will not have opportunity for easy scores.

[Prospector]

21 minutes ago, theRalph said:

When you're up three or four scores in the 4Q, you DON'T keep sticking it in the other team's ass. It is most certainly bad Karma.

I don't think this counts for backups... It's like when the Bills had Matt Barkley throw a bomb on the Dolphins in the blow out a couple years ago. They also tried just running, but those were going for TD's also. But the Dolphins have bad karma for just being the Dolphins.

[bobobonators]

This thread has aged like a fine wine. So much of sports at this level is purely psychological. You’re dealing with teams who, for the most part, are fairly evenly matched on talent. The psychology/mindset of it all is so important. 

[TheBrownBear]

1 minute ago, bobobonators said:

This thread has aged like a fine wine. So much of sports at this level is purely psychological. You’re dealing with teams who, for the most part, are fairly evenly matched on talent. The psychology/mindset of it all is so important. 

Yep, now the Bills need to watch their back and mindset.  They are on the emotional high right now.

[AlfaBill]

On 9/28/2023 at 1:17 PM, Dopey said:

48-28 the good guys!!

You win!

[Beast]

23 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

This thread has aged like a fine wine. So much of sports at this level is purely psychological. You’re dealing with teams who, for the most part, are fairly evenly matched on talent. The psychology/mindset of it all is so important. 

I disagree with, “for the most part, teams being fairly evenly matched on talent.”

 

There’s a reason why teams are always seeking more talented players. 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Beast