Week 5 - Buy, Sell, Hold - Jags Edition

[boyst]

WEEK 5 UPDATE: BILLS vs. JAGUARS (IN LONDON)

Good late Wednesday for everyone. Yesterday was a doozy for me professionally, so forgive my delay. Per suggestion I will keep the weekly Buy, Sell, Trade an ongoing thread to keep our receipts.

 

We are on to London and Week 5. We rocked Miami's world and have the chance to impress this weekend against the Jags who can be quite tough but there are some chances to really flex against a lesser opponent.

 

 

************************

 

ORIGINAL POST:

We missed last week and I missed ya'll.  Well, that's ok. I think we all knew going in it would be a strong weekend for us.

 

So, let's catch up. Did you miss anything last week? How do you feel about this weekend?

 

Just a reminder - this is completely abstract. If you say "buy" it is simply a suggestion/opinion that the said player/group will have something to offer which you can state your reasoning upon. Selling means you think this player or group is not something you'd want to invest in going into the weekend, just like a stock. And hold - it is simply that if you may like it but you don't want more but you won't get rid of it yet because there is something there which you can testify for if you choose.

 

Me? I got some good thoughts:

 

BUY: Dalton Kincaid. Josh will be throwing to Diggs a lot who will be double teamed the entire time. I think Josh will have time to let Kincaid get some routes in and he is capable of running a route tree across the middle and picking up short yardage.

 

SELL: Bernard. Simply put, sell while the stock is high. This guy could not have earned more confidence last week in any other way. I hope he can continue to excel and contribute but boy, oh boy, it's like Tesla hitting 250. Even if it's going to the moon - cash out now while you can.

 

HOLD: Dorsey. Let's see what he puts on the field. We can't ditch him this weekend but I want to own this stock this week to watch it against Mini McDaniel.

Edited October 5, 2023 by boyst

[BuffaloBillyG]

Buy: Sean McDermott the DC. 

 

Simply put this is a huge test for him to see where he fits with his defensive knowledge these days. Will he bring pressure? Drop 7 or 8 into passing lanes? How will he make up for the lack of speed we have on defense vs basically the US 4X100 track team? Maybe I'm too optimistic, however by Monday next week I think the talk around the NFL will be how McDermott laid a blueprint to slow (not completely stop) the blazing Dolphin offense.

 

Sell: Christian Benford.

It's not that Benford has played bad. He hasn't. This just may not be a matchup that suits what he does on defense. This week may be rough on him.

 

Hold: Dawson Knox.

He's been asked to do a fair amount of blocking so far especially the last 2 weeks. Feels like he's due for a solid outing. And this feel like a spot traditionally where he steps up with that 6 or 7 catch game with a TD or 2. But, he could also be asked to help the RT again. I'm willing to see how Dorsey plays it with him.

 

 

[John from Riverside]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Buy: Sean McDermott the DC. 

 

Simply put this is a huge test for him to see where he fits with his defensive knowledge these days. Will he bring pressure? Drop 7 or 8 into passing lanes? How will he make up for the lack of speed we have on defense vs basically the US 4X100 track team? Maybe I'm too optimistic, however by Monday next week I think the talk around the NFL will be how McDermott laid a blueprint to slow (not completely stop) the blazing Dolphin offense.

 

Sell: Christian Benford.

It's not that Benford has played bad. He hasn't. This just may not be a matchup that suits what he does on defense. This week may be rough on him.

 

Hold: Dawson Knox.

He's been asked to do a fair amount of blocking so far especially the last 2 weeks. Feels like he's due for a solid outing. And this feel like a spot traditionally where he steps up with that 6 or 7 catch game with a TD or 2. But, he could also be asked to help the RT again. I'm willing to see how Dorsey plays it with him.

 

 

Something tells me this is gonna be in Dalton Kincaid’s week

[Gregg]

Next to Allen I think Cook will be the key player in leading the Bills to a win over the Fins. He leads the AFC in rushing and is 3rd overall. If he has a good day, then that means the Bills are controlling the clock and keeping the Fins offense on the sidelines. I realize Allen will have to throw it all over the field as well but a Bills offense that is well balanced with run and pass is when they are most effective.

[transplantbillsfan]

Agreed on Kincaid.

 

But Bernard?  Really?  I don't think he'll have many (any?) more games like the game he had against Washington the other day, but through 3 games I actually feel pretty comfortable in calling him a more than capable NFL MLB... and I kinda feel like he's already a better MLB than Edmunds ever was.

[GoBills808]

Buying Bernard. The kid looks like the real deal out there even tho it's early which leads me to...

 

Hold on the defense as a whole. They have played some very bad offenses thus far. This is their first real test

 

Selling the idea that anyone except Diggs is going to emerge as a legitimate offensive weapon...for the second straight year unfortunately 

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Agreed on Kincaid.

 

But Bernard?  Really?  I don't think he'll have many (any?) more games like the game he had against Washington the other day, but through 3 games I actually feel pretty comfortable in calling him a more than capable NFL MLB... and I kinda feel like he's already a better MLB than Edmunds ever was.

 

That is why he is a sell. It doesn't mean he won't be good. Means he is probably coming off his best ever performance. So his price if he was a stock would be way up.

 

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

Buy: Allen, he is still the Dolphins Daddy.

Hold: McDermott DC, he is killing it so far, but Sunday will be a test.

Sell: No one right now, this team has only given up 35 points I believe in 3 games and is #2 in point differential.

 

Keep on keepin' on!

[transplantbillsfan]

44 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is why he is a sell. It doesn't mean he won't be good. Means he is probably coming off his best ever performance. So his price if he was a stock would be way up.

 

 

 

Understood....

 

Sorry... not a day trader  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Buy: Harty

Hold: Cook

Sell: Old Man Poyer

Reasoning:

 

Harty stock is very low. I don’t think they paid him to catch screens. He’ll impact at some point.

 

Im holding Cook because most of his yards are coming late in blowouts. He’s getting the bulk of the RB snaps. I want more.

 

Im selling Poyer vs Miami. Poyer takes some terrible angles vs speed. This could be embarrassing.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Sherlock Holmes]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is why he is a sell. It doesn't mean he won't be good. Means he is probably coming off his best ever performance. So his price if he was a stock would be way up.

 

 

But what if that was his floor? I admit I wanted Spector at MLB but Bernard is trying to give Milano a run for top LB on this team at this rate.

Buy: Kincaid

Sell: Martin(Get me Araiza)

Hold: Kincaid

Edited September 27, 2023 by Sherlock Holmes

[MJS]

Buy: Ed Oliver - He's playing great and I think that will continue.

 

Sell: Deonte Harty - He just isn't offering anything of substance. I'd rather give more opportunities to other players. If you need a gadget play with speed, maybe use Cook instead? Harty has been solid on returns, though.

 

Hold: Spencer Brown - I think people are overstating what a liability he is, and there are also some who are exaggerating how good he has played due to the overall pass blocking success the past two weeks. I think we need to see a lot more.

[Wizard]

Buy: Bass-O-Matic. The man should get 3 field goals this game.

 

Hold: Ed Oliver. Still having solid season but Miami's running and quick passing will mean a quality but not great game from Oliver.

 

Sell: AJ Espensa..probably his best game ever as a pro. Believe he had improved but not pro bowl, all pro, or above average defense end level.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

10 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Something tells me this is gonna be in Dalton Kincaid’s week

I don’t buy it. I think Josh is slowly building confidence & chemistry w/ DK. It’s all gonna come together slowly but surely. Dawson Knox still remains the best TE on this team until proven otherwise especially in the red zone. 

[DaggersEOD]

Well concerning Bernard, what exactly is his stock right now? Right now, he’s a 3 start MLB who has flashed a few amazing plays. 
 

What is the value of that stock?  IMO, that game wasn’t the peak, but an indicator of greater potential. I’m keeping this stock like a guy who heard about Apple before it hit big. 
 

Actually, I’m buying because I think if he pops next week with all eyes on BUF/MIA, there will be a run on his stock.

Edited September 28, 2023 by DaggersEOD
Got the B’s confused lol

[NoSaint]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Agreed on Kincaid.

 

But Bernard?  Really?  I don't think he'll have many (any?) more games like the game he had against Washington the other day, but through 3 games I actually feel pretty comfortable in calling him a more than capable NFL MLB... and I kinda feel like he's already a better MLB than Edmunds ever was.

and when people start saying that 3 games after saying he was incompetent and coaches were hesitant to give him the job- it’s probably sell high territory ala Trent, or fitz, or… he has had a good run. I think odds are some regression. Who knows but that’s common sense. 

[wjag]

Buy: Allen.  He just ain't gonna concede the East to those mammals.

 

Hold: Sherfield..  Think this week may be his week.

 

Sell: Harty sweeps and screens.  Doesn't seem to be fooling anyone.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Buy : Josh Allen. I think we're in for a vintage 400 yard 4 TD type game vs the Fish

 

Sell: King (of garbage time) James Cook

 

Hold: Stefon Diggs. He's on pace for 140 catches and 1,600 yards. He's so consistently good nobody even notices. 

[Alphadawg7]

Buy:  Our Running Backs - Bills are going to look at what they did week 3 last year and that was EAT up the time of possession with long sustained drives keeping the Dolphins offense off the field. I think Cook and the other backs are going to see a lot of action this week both in running and short dump offs to extend drives and chew clock.  Dont look now, but Bills are 5th in the NFL in rushing and that's without Allen running a ton.  

 

Hold:  McD Defense - What I have seen from them the first 3 weeks has been outstanding.  But this will be their first big test as the week 1 test with Rogers never materialized and Raiders and Washington weren't exactly potent offenses.  This week we find out just where this defense is really at and its one of the things I am most excited to see this week.  So the D seems to be an obvious hold here given they haven't truly been tested yet by a top end offense.  

 

Sell:  Gabe Davis - Hard to sell a guy who has had a TD 2 straight weeks, but his TD this week was his lone catch and he had another poor efficiency outing of 1 catch on 4 targets that included a drop.  Im not going to start piling on Davis yet, but he has now had 2 games in the first 3 where he only had 4 targets (and he has only caught 3 of those 8 targets in those 2 games).  I don't know whose fault it is, but it feels like more of the same from him so far.  

 

 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Buying DaQuon Jones - guy does not get the props he deserves. He’s been both impactful in the run and pass game. He and Big Ed have been a large piece of the puzzle keeping 43 and 58 clean to clean up. 

 

Selling the Dorsey/Kromer Zone Runs - The bills run game is much more suited for gap scheme, as well as with Cooks explosiveness. Those delayed handoffs, RPOs and slow developing plays do not play well into Cook’s abilities.

 

Holding Gabe Davis - I am not for a Davis extension. I think he is who we thought he is. And right now, that’s the best #2 option they have to stretch the field and find big chunk plays aside from Diggs. He’s far from ideal and probably would be a better sell at this point based off of last weeks production, but the fact of the matter is we are going to need those plays from Davis if we want to be a real contender. 

[iccrewman112]

Only a Buy for this week.

 

Buying Elam. He is at an all time low like a penny stock. Warning report shows good historical performance against Miami. An extra defensive back should be activated this week and he fits certain defensive strategies like jamming at the line to throw off timing.

[Drew21PA]

14 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Buying Bernard. The kid looks like the real deal out there even tho it's early which leads me to...

 

Hold on the defense as a whole. They have played some very bad offenses thus far. This is their first real test

 

Selling the idea that anyone except Diggs is going to emerge as a legitimate offensive weapon...for the second straight year unfortunately 

Wow after back to back solid outings by wr2

[Dan Darragh]

HOLD: Taylor Swift.  Rumors have her dating Josh.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, Drew21PA said:

Wow after back to back solid outings by wr2

Not solid outings. 

[eball]

Buy:  Jimbo Cook.  I know he has already been playing well but I sense a big play TD this week and a buck fifty of all purpose yards.

 

Sell:  Gabe Davis.  I hate it, but the inconsistency is killing us.  Other guys are going to make plays on Sunday.

 

Hold:  Christian (whoops) Terrel Bernard.  Love the confidence this guy is playing with.  Not expecting him to duplicate last week’s splashy stats but to simply continue looking like he belongs.

 

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by eball

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Buy : Elam. He’s a penny stock at this point 

 

buy: Bass I’m convinced he’s an elite kicker and will start being discussed as such

 

sell: Bernard … I agree he up like Enron right now whether it’s real or not you can’t go broke taking profit 

 

hold: McDermott- not high or low but long term he’s got value, like Walmart or a utility company 

[Warriorspikes51]

BUY: Elam needs to start this week. His speed and physicality are needed against Hill 

26 minutes ago, eball said:

Buy:  Jimbo Cook.  I know he has already been playing well but I sense a big play TD this week and a buck fifty of all purpose yards.

 

Sell:  Gabe Davis.  I hate it, but the inconsistency is killing us.  Other guys are going to make plays on Sunday.

 

Hold:  Christian Bernard.  Love the confidence this guy is playing with.  Not expecting him to duplicate last week’s splashy stats but to simply continue looking like he belongs.

 

Who??

[Drew21PA]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Not solid outings. 

Eh whatever catching touchdowns 

39 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

BUY: Elam needs to start this week. His speed and physicality are needed against Hill 

Who??

I don’t think Elam is even active this week again

[Bangarang]

Buy: Cook

 

Sell: Kincaid

 

Hold: Oliver

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

Eh whatever catching touchdowns 

I don’t think Elam is even active this week again

Who do you credit more for the Gabe Davis’ TDs? Gabe or Josh? 
 

Gabe is a basic WR. He does nothing good. Like any WR with opportunity, he puts up some numbers sometimes.

 

Hands - Below average 

Route running- below average 

Speed - below average 

YAC - below average 

Blocking - above average 

Contested catch - below average 

Separation - below average 

Athleticism - below average 

 

[eball]

56 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

BUY: Elam needs to start this week. His speed and physicality are needed against Hill 

Who??

 

Whoops.  It has been corrected.  Bernard, Benford, lol...

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

BUY: Elam needs to start this week. His speed and physicality are needed against Hill 

Who??

I’m interested to see Benford vs Miami speed. He only played 19 snaps vs Miami last year before injury and those were week 3. 
 

I don’t think the Bills change their starters. But I would have Elam active in case of injury.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Mojo44]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is why he is a sell. It doesn't mean he won't be good. Means he is probably coming off his best ever performance. So his price if he was a stock would be way up.

 

 

Disagree. If you want to use the stock market analogy he is a hold. Last weeks performance was off the charts. He made everyone a ton of money. Of course he will come back down to earth. But that doesn’t mean it’s gonna end up as a loss at all. If he plays well he still makes a profit.

[Mr. WEO]

Buy:  Gabe.  Allen needs to look more his way....and he will.

 

Sell: Poyer.  look for him watching receivers blowing past him and jumping on piles after 1st downs achieved.

 

Hold:  Kincaid.  An extra blocker is nice, but they should be looking more Knox's way for production Sunday.

[Drew21PA]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Who do you credit more for the Gabe Davis’ TDs? Gabe or Josh? 
 

Gabe is a basic WR. He does nothing good. Like any WR with opportunity, he puts up some numbers sometimes.

 

Hands - Below average 

Route running- below average 

Speed - below average 

YAC - below average 

Blocking - above average 

Contested catch - below average 

Separation - below average 

Athleticism - below average 

 

Your hatred is focused in the wrong direction here

 

i get you want someone better but 60 yards a game and 2 tds in the last two games shows some improvements 

[GunnerBill]

55 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

Disagree. If you want to use the stock market analogy he is a hold. Last weeks performance was off the charts. He made everyone a ton of money. Of course he will come back down to earth. But that doesn’t mean it’s gonna end up as a loss at all. If he plays well he still makes a profit.

 

Ha it wasn't my analogy I am not here pounding the table for it.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

Your hatred is focused in the wrong direction here

 

i get you want someone better but 60 yards a game and 2 tds in the last two games shows some improvements 

Same Gabe Davis. No improvements. 

[Mojo44]

Ok. Fair enough.  I thought it was the OP’s analogy. 😁

[Drew21PA]

42 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Same Gabe Davis. No improvements. 

If you want a Higgins as a number 2 then it’s a pipe dream - Higgins ina bonafide number one for any team on the league 

 

gabe is just fine as a number two if he keeps hauling in the tds 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, Drew21PA said:

If you want a Higgins as a number 2 then it’s a pipe dream - Higgins ina bonafide number one for any team on the league 

 

gabe is just fine as a number two if he keeps hauling in the tds 

Gabe doesn’t do anything good. His hands are terrible. He catches TDs because of his QB.