Dan Orlovsky on the Bills Offense Yesterday

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

I am not arguing one way or another, but is there any data supporting this? I mean some stats split JA under center vs JA in shotgun.

 

You can find splits on pro-football-reference

For example

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/splits/2022/

scroll down

[billsfan89]

The Bills offense played complementary to the defense. The offense was mostly conservative as they knew the defense had the Commanders number. They scored on 4 out of 5 drives in the first half building a big two-possession lead. Then to start the second half they got the ball on the one and turned the ball over deep in the Commanders territory effectively chewing up time and shifting field position. Some questionable penalties stalled the drive. 

 

The only time the offense really frustrated me was the inability to get into field goal range on the second drive of the first half. They had a 3rd and 2 and couldn't get two yards on two downs. The rest of the way the Bills offense scored two TD's on their next two possessions even with the second TD coming with backups in due to the defensive score and clock running lower. 

 

Overall the Bills had only had 3 drives that did not end in points or a kneel-down. And of those three drives one started on the one yard line and ended with a shift in field position and chewed up clock for a team up 16. I would have liked it more for the Bills to convert that third and short it was insanely frustrating that they couldn't get Josh behind center and hand it off to Murray twice and just get the yards. 

 

In the end if the offensive line holds up as it has the past couple weeks I think the offense will continue to perform at a high level. 

[Chicken Boo]

Now, I fully expect Dorsey to see this as a slight and do the exact opposite.  

 

Thanks, Dan.

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

I get the point, but no team plays with more than 50% of the snaps under center. Here are the 2022 percentage of shotgun snaps by team. If you notice, the best teams are clustered at the high end, or at least after you remove the teams that have to be almost 100% in shotgun because of a short QB.

 

I'm having a little trouble understanding this chart - I get it's normalizing the data, but find it hard to map onto straight info.

 

Last season the Bills played 1048 offensive snaps.  747 were from shotgun (71%).  301 were under center (29%)

Josh actually had more YPA and better completion % under center (7.9 vs 7.4; 65% vs 62%). but I had thought that was because overwhelmingly, the Bills run from under center (2/3 of under center snaps, they run)
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022_splits.htm   scroll down

Edited September 25, 2023 by Beck Water

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

I get the point, but no team plays with more than 50% of the snaps under center. Here are the 2022 percentage of shotgun snaps by team. If you notice, the best teams are clustered at the high end, or at least after you remove the teams that have to be almost 100% in shotgun because of a short QB.

 

Thanks for posting. I'll condense it in a table below.

 

4 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

I have been saying dink and doink teams to death since the emergence of Josh Allen. It's alot more fun to watch the 50 yard bombs but also isn't sustainable, 6 yards here, 8 yards there and then opens you up for the play action pass, this is the offense I've been looking for, for so long now. I don't think there is a team that can beat us if we stick to the game plan each and every week, Brady/Brees were the masters of this and Allen can be too.

 

The counter-argument is that the so-called "Bend but don't Break" Defenses are based on making the offense run many plays to drive the field and score. The idea is that most offenses can't do so for various external or internal reasons. Most experts agree that chunk yardage is a necessary component of an efficient offense. So it's not either/or... it's a healthy balance.

 

3 hours ago, Rubes said:

 

Not to nit-pick, but you can do play-action from the shotgun. So I don't think this represents under center vs. not under center.

 

 

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

I don't think Allen is any better under center than in Shotgun.

 

The key to Allen playing well is play-action. 

But play-action and under center often coincide, and that is where I believe people see the correlation.

 

You guys make the point that some are missing. Thank you.

 

Here's a condensed list:

 

% of Offensive Snaps in Shotgun Formation

Las Vegas (lowest in NFL)	52.44
Detroit	52.50
Dallas	55.86
San Francisco	60.38
League Average	67.49
Green Bay	68.53
Buffalo	73.85
Cincinnati	77.34
Kansas City	78.86
Philadelphia (highest in NFL)	88.73

 

 

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm having a little trouble understanding this chart - I get it's normalizing the data, but find it hard to map onto straight info.

 

Last season the Bills played 1048 offensive snaps.  747 were from shotgun (71%).  301 were under center (29%)

Josh actually had more YPA and better completion % under center (7.9 vs 7.4; 65% vs 62%). but I had thought that was because overwhelmingly, the Bills run from under center (2/3 of under center snaps, they run)

This is just the percentage of snaps from the shotgun. I am not disputing the fact that Josh has been more effective from under center. The point of my post was to refute the demand that the Bills play 70% of their offensive plays from under center by noting that no team in the NFL does that in the 21st century. In fact, the two teams that played in the SB last played two of the highest percentage of their plays from the shotgun. Interesting stat. The Eagles played almost 89% of their snaps from the shotgun but were 3rd in the league in rushing attempts. 

[MasterStrategist]

5 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Can someone help me out and explain why — in this offense with Josh specifically — Josh is better under center, as Orlovsky says?

 

1. How is protection better? Dan says it calms Josh down a bit.

2. How does Josh read the field better?

3. How do the route running/concepts change and/or improve?

Just trying to understand and specific examples help me. Thanks in advance. 🍻

I think the biggest "pro" of being under center, is run game variety.  Alot more schemes and options are on the table.  Not to say you can't execute similar concepts from the gun, but it is more limited.  We don't run as much zone-concepts, it's more gap schemes or gap/pull.

 

Dorsey has added a few more wrinkles, in the run game, from the gun. Primarily the outside draws, trying to take advantage of wide 9 splits/DEs rushing upfield.

 

Back to being under center, the variety in run game opens up:

1. Playaction

2. TE usage

3. High-level: it occupies the LBs/2nd level of defense, and makes it easier for those tight windows and keeping LBs from getting to their drop zones immediately.

4. Defensive Line adjustments: we've been seeing more teams run " wide 9 " against us, when we're in shotgun. That sets up a lot of 1-1 with our tackles.  Under center, defenses are going to get out of wide 9 most of the time. So that helps in pass pro too.

 

I think teams like KC or even Miami LY, countered our under center looks with more blitzes.  So it's an opponent to opponent decision, staying in shotgun helps Josh get the ball out faster/more time in theory...especially against blitzing/ less zone teams.  Against Jets and Washington fronts, it makes alot of sense to stay under center 50%ish and try to get a run game going/slow down the DL

[Nephilim17]

7 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

I think the biggest "pro" of being under center, is run game variety.  Alot more schemes and options are on the table.  Not to say you can't execute similar concepts from the gun, but it is more limited.  We don't run as much zone-concepts, it's more gap schemes or gap/pull.

 

Dorsey has added a few more wrinkles, in the run game, from the gun. Primarily the outside draws, trying to take advantage of wide 9 splits/DEs rushing upfield.

 

Back to being under center, the variety in run game opens up:

1. Playaction

2. TE usage

3. High-level: it occupies the LBs/2nd level of defense, and makes it easier for those tight windows and keeping LBs from getting to their drop zones immediately.

4. Defensive Line adjustments: we've been seeing more teams run " wide 9 " against us, when we're in shotgun. That sets up a lot of 1-1 with our tackles.  Under center, defenses are going to get out of wide 9 most of the time. So that helps in pass pro too.

 

I think teams like KC or even Miami LY, countered our under center looks with more blitzes.  So it's an opponent to opponent decision, staying in shotgun helps Josh get the ball out faster/more time in theory...especially against blitzing/ less zone teams.  Against Jets and Washington fronts, it makes alot of sense to stay under center 50%ish and try to get a run game going/slow down the DL

Super appreciated. I'd buy you a beer for this IRL. 🍻

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

How could the OL Not handle that? Blocking is blocking, under center, shotgun doesn't matter.

 The league years ago walked away from under center sets.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 The league years ago walked away from under center sets.  

Set the Trend, go back to it quite a bit. Josh has been thriving on it.  Now exclusively, no. I would like to amend my earlier % and drop it to say 40% of the snaps. I think he, and the offense would thrive.

[mannc]

6 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 The league years ago walked away from under center sets.  

Why, though?  Because that’s all these guys do in college?

[Chaos]

It is situational to me. I don't think we should be in the shotgun on third and 1 ever for example. 

[Mr. WEO]

8 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Set the Trend, go back to it quite a bit. Josh has been thriving on it.  Now exclusively, no. I would like to amend my earlier % and drop it to say 40% of the snaps. I think he, and the offense would thrive.

 

Going backwards isn't trend setting.

 

A couple of good showings vs marginal teams isn't the way to remaster your Offense. There's no reason to believe that if the Bills shifted to a lot more Josh under Center that the trend would hold.  Obviously teams would change the way they defend him, don't you think?

 

The Offense is, across a whole year, pretty stout as is, despite roster changes each season.  

 

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

Why, though?  Because that’s all these guys do in college?

 

 

Pretty much.  College Offense has predominated in the NFL for a while.  Lots of coordinators from the college game.  Plus with the dominance of RPO, the shotgun is king.

[WotAGuy]

5 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

We're taking football advice from this guy?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0OkR986LL4

Someone named Dan Darragh has no business criticizing any QB, I’m sorry. I watched that dude stink up the joint. 

35 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 The league years ago walked away from under center sets.  

Besides it was so cool watching Staubach in the gun!

[Matt_In_NH]

I like Orlovsky and I am good with more Josh under center.....however, some of the stuff he spewed about it calming him down and how great it is for everything the Bills do is a little far fetched.  

[JerseyBills]

Eh, many media were picking the Skins to win and more to at least cover the points.  We had zero run game for 3 qtrs, consistently behind the sticks and Josh was pulled with over 8 min to go, when they finally wore them out and ran on them. 

This is the best dl in the game on paper and solid defense. 

It wasn't the prettiest offensive game but we didn't need Josh to put on the cape , when needed,  he will

[Old Coot]

I'll add a twist to the shotgun- under center debate and play action.

 

As Shaw has said classic play-action was a pass play disguised as a run play with QB under center and a fake handoff to the RB. 

 

Thr Run-Pass Option (RPO) needs to be executed from a shotgun or pistol formation. The RB meshes with the QB. The QB is essentially reading a conflict defender, lets say the left outside linebacker, to decide whether the RB keeps the ball or the QB takes the ball back and passes. If the LB plays pass and backs up the QB lets the RB have the ball who runs. If the LB plays run and stays clos to the line, the QB keeps the ball and hits a receiver behind the LB. It's not easy to run an RPO from under center because You cannot run an RPO from under center because the QB is running backward while at the same time reading the LB and trying to mesh with the RB.

 

I suspect that Josh is more successful passing in an RPO when the conflict defender plays run than on a straight passing play with no fake to the RB because he's read the defender playing run so he passes to take advantage of the defender's decision to play run.

[HappyDays]

13 hours ago, Logic said:

Josh Allen, I think, ESPECIALLY benefits from play-action.

 

One reason for this that I don't see talked about a lot is that Josh has genuinely elite sleight of hand in those situations. He apparently does magic as a light hobby and it shows. It's one thing to just go through the motions of faking the handoff but Josh really SELLS it. I notice this especially on play action rollouts where often times even the camera man is fooled by Josh's ball handling. It's a huge underrated piece of his success in play action IMO.

[Zag20]

14 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

We're taking football advice from this guy?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0OkR986LL4

That’s just 2 points given away. A pick 6 is 7.

[Dan Darragh]

4 hours ago, Zag20 said:

That’s just 2 points given away. A pick 6 is 7.

If a pick 6 is 7, why don't they call it a pick 7?

[HoofHearted]

On 9/25/2023 at 8:56 AM, Allen2Moulds said:

I think when it's 3rd or 4th and a foot, he needs to be under center. Defenses have to alot the proper resources to defend, which typically create great opportunities for both play action and bootlegs. When we go into shotgun, we completely eliminate it.

Why do you think shotgun eliminates play action and bootlegs?

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Why do you think shotgun eliminates play action and bootlegs?

I always thought shotgun play action was RPO

[McBean]

On 9/25/2023 at 7:59 AM, MAJBobby said:

 

I feel there are many here that have been screaming the same thing for the last couple years.  By not doing this you are also taking away a very underrated element of Josh's game.  He is a magician with the fakes.  there are many times I could have swore he handed the ball off to only see a 20 yard strike to someone down field.  

Imagine Josh playing under Shannahan or McDaniel.

[HoofHearted]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I always thought shotgun play action was RPO

No, not every mesh is an RPO out of gun.

On 9/25/2023 at 9:12 AM, Einstein said:

Josh Allen with NO play-action:

61.7%, 99 TD, 51 INT, 86.9 QB rating. 6.7 YPA.

 

Josh Allen w/ play action:

68.6%, 53 TD, 13 INT, 117.5 QB rating. 9.1 YPA.

This trend should be true for most QBs.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

No, not every mesh is an RPO out of gun.

This trend should be true for most QBs.

Ty I legit did not know that 

[HoofHearted]

On 9/25/2023 at 10:55 AM, Shaw66 said:

I agree, and it's a good point, but my eye tells me there's a difference.  Play action from the shotgun is the simple fake handoff to the running back standing beside or behind the QB.  It's essentially a fake draw-play.   Kelly and Thurman ran it all the time, but that was at a time when defenses hadn't adjusted yet to that style.  Play action from under center is more threatening to the defense.  For one thing, the QB makes some affirmative movements in order to execute the fake, movements that look exactly like a running play, and depending on what's being faked, it could be any kind of running play - pulling linemen, draw, power, off tackle, stretch play.   It's hard to simulate all of that out of shotgun.   So, I think, the defense is forced to respond to the urgency of the play-fake coming from the QB at the line of scrimmage.  

 

The actual fake also tends to be much more effective from under center.   The play-fake on Josh's TD pass to Knox last week is an example.  Josh had his back to the line of scrimmage with the ball tucked way into his belly while his other hand executed the fake.  He and the running back passed so close to each other that it was really hard for the defense to see if he put the ball into the back's belly or kept it.   The result was that when he rolled left he was left with very few defenders in front of him.   You just can't fake like that out of the shotgun, because the ball always is in full view. 

 

And one other thing about playing under center.  If you have a tall QB, and the Bills do, the QB can stand up and make the quick throw to the receiver running a shall inside slant.   Or take a three-step drop and throw.   The benefit of doing that has to do with geometry.   If you're three yards behind the line scrimmage and throwing over the middle, fewer defensive linemen are in the line of sight of the QB than when you're six or seven yards behind the line.   (Draw a picture and you'll see.)  So being under center makes a few passing plays more effective. 

 

And two more things:  Josh has a bad tendency to escape backward, which allows the edge rushers to slip their blocks.  When Josh is dropping from under center, he naturally can't get as deep in the pocket, which will help him step up, rather than step back, when the rush comes.   And it also helps Josh run a quick hitting draw play - two-step drop and burst up the middle. 

 

I can see a lot of advantages to having him under center. 

 

 

You can do all of the bolded out of gun.

[C.Biscuit97]

I actually like DO but it was painful listening to him call Stafford’s fans last night. Dude loves him Matthew

[WideNine]

On 9/25/2023 at 7:53 AM, warrior9 said:

In some respects on a roll out, sure. 

 

But the threat of him running draws, reads, etc goes out the window.. It's not the fact that we want him to run, we want the defense to respect it. 

Spreading them out with him in the gun takes guys out of the box, will make them incorporate a spy more often, loosens coverage, etc. 

 

How does playing under center eliminate draw plays?

 

Folks also tend to gather at the extreme poles so they can yell at each other.

 

No one is saying eliminate shotgun and spread, but putting Allen under center more will improve play action, timing, less turnovers, efficiency - the numbers show that....

 

Especially this season since we are running less empty spread and more 12 personnel.

 

 

 

[warrior9]

Just now, WideNine said:

 

How does playing under center eliminate draw plays?

 

Folks also tend to gather at the extreme poles so they can yell at each other.

 

No one is saying eliminate shotgun and spread, but putting Allen under center more will improve play action, timing, less turnovers, efficiency - the numbers show that....

 

Especially this season since we are running less empty spread and more 12 personnel.

 

 

 

QB Draws? Because it's not 1970 and D-linemen run 4.4 40's. Taking a 5 step drop back to a draw will not work in today's NFL.. I challenge you to find the last time a team ran a DESIGNED QB draw from under center. 

 

No one is saying they should eliminate under center. I quite literally said, I can get on board with 35-40%. You also have to realize, the more we do it, the more film there is, the more preparation, and in result, the numbers will suffer. The reason it's successful right now is because of the amount of time we're under center. 

[Shaw66]

34 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

You can do all of the bolded out of gun.

Yeah, I guess that's true, and teams do run all those actions out of the shotgun.  Mostly what's different is the faking.  Out of the shotgun the QB facing the line of scrimmage and can't hide the ball nearly as well.   

 

Also, the stretch runs are different, and the faking is different under center.  When the QB runs left to fake the stretch run handoff and then rolls right, the QB's movement is a major part of the motion that misleads the defenders.   

 

 

[HoofHearted]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, I guess that's true, and teams do run all those actions out of the shotgun.  Mostly what's different is the faking.  Out of the shotgun the QB facing the line of scrimmage and can't hide the ball nearly as well.   

 

Also, the stretch runs are different, and the faking is different under center.  When the QB runs left to fake the stretch run handoff and then rolls right, the QB's movement is a major part of the motion that misleads the defenders.   

 

 

The mesh still holds the backers - it's the same concept.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

On 9/25/2023 at 10:12 AM, Einstein said:

Josh Allen with NO play-action:

61.7%, 99 TD, 51 INT, 86.9 QB rating. 6.7 YPA.

 

Josh Allen w/ play action:

68.6%, 53 TD, 13 INT, 117.5 QB rating. 9.1 YPA.

I mean to be fair that's pretty much all QBs across the board. The play action pass is one of the most effective plays in the game so long as a defense even has to account for the run game. Not even going run heavy, but that they freeze for a second to think of the possibility 

[Don Otreply]

Weather you like Orlovsky or not, he is on point with this view of Buffalos offense.

[Scott7975]

On 9/25/2023 at 8:59 AM, MAJBobby said:

 

I feel there are many here that have been screaming the same thing for the last couple years.  By not doing this you are also taking away a very underrated element of Josh's game.  He is a magician with the fakes.  there are many times I could have swore he handed the ball off to only see a 20 yard strike to someone down field.  

 

Yup, the overuse of shotgun needs to go. Undercenter Josh is better.  Playaction Josh is better. Under center run game is better.  How is Dorsey the only one who doesn't see this.

[CincyBillsFan]

34 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I mean to be fair that's pretty much all QBs across the board. The play action pass is one of the most effective plays in the game so long as a defense even has to account for the run game. Not even going run heavy, but that they freeze for a second to think of the possibility 

Good point and don't forget that included in the shotgun numbers are teams losing and desperately trying to get back in the game.  Play action doesn't work that well down by 10 in the 4th quarter.

 

 

[Einstein]

24 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I mean to be fair that's pretty much all QBs across the board. 

Allen's numbers being better with play-action is not what is unique about what I posted. What is unique is the massive gap between Allen's non-play-action and play-action numbers. For example...

Allen's QB rating goes up 30 points with play-action.

 

Mahomes QB rating goes up only 8 points with play-action.

Tuas QB rating goes up 0 points with play-action.

Bradys QB rating goes up only 7 points with play-action.

Staffords QB rating goes up only 12 points with play-action.

Burrows QB rating goes up 0 points with play-action.

Watsons QB rating goes up 8 points with play-action.

Prescotts QB rating goes up 8 points with play-action.
Rodgers QB rating goes up only 13 points with play-action.

 

 

So yes, QB's typically fare better with play-action, but Allen is extremely unique with HOW MUCH better he is with play-action. A massive, whopping, 30 point difference.

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, warrior9 said:

QB Draws? Because it's not 1970 and D-linemen run 4.4 40's. Taking a 5 step drop back to a draw will not work in today's NFL.. I challenge you to find the last time a team ran a DESIGNED QB draw from under center. 

 

No one is saying they should eliminate under center. I quite literally said, I can get on board with 35-40%. You also have to realize, the more we do it, the more film there is, the more preparation, and in result, the numbers will suffer. The reason it's successful right now is because of the amount of time we're under center. 

 

When running play action from under center with an effective running game like we have against light boxes (because we face so much 2 deep shell zone looks) it causes defensive linemen to hesitate and be gap disciplined and slows the rush. 

 

I don't think the numbers show more effective pressures from speedy d-linemen when Allen takes those 3-5 step drops from under center.

 

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, warrior9 said:

QB Draws? Because it's not 1970 and D-linemen run 4.4 40's. Taking a 5 step drop back to a draw will not work in today's NFL.. I challenge you to find the last time a team ran a DESIGNED QB draw from under center. 

 

No one is saying they should eliminate under center. I quite literally said, I can get on board with 35-40%. You also have to realize, the more we do it, the more film there is, the more preparation, and in result, the numbers will suffer. The reason it's successful right now is because of the amount of time we're under center. 

Well, first, one of the objectives is to have Allen run less, so I'm not in a hurry to run QB draws.    

[warrior9]

42 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, first, one of the objectives is to have Allen run less, so I'm not in a hurry to run QB draws.    

That's not the point. The point is it takes that element and threat out of the game. You have to prepare for that. You don't need to spy as much (taking a guy out of coverage) when under center. You can't run play action 80% of the time. 

 

Like i said, i think somewhere in the 35-40% would be fine in a game where clock control is important. The mix Dorsey had last game was perfect. 

[Shaw66]

21 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

That's not the point. The point is it takes that element and threat out of the game. You have to prepare for that. You don't need to spy as much (taking a guy out of coverage) when under center. You can't run play action 80% of the time. 

 

Like i said, i think somewhere in the 35-40% would be fine in a game where clock control is important. The mix Dorsey had last game was perfect. 

Well, look.   I don't really know or even have an opinion about whether under center is better and what the right mix ought to be.  What I learned in this thread is that he's been much more effective when running play action, and I do believe that play action works better when you're under center, for reasons I've given:   Fakes are more effective because you can hide the ball. The QB is in motion to make handoffs or fake them, and when the QB is in motion there's another opportunity to confuse the defense with misdirection.  

 

But I don't really care.   All I want is for Allen to get his completion percentage consistently high, because I think that's what's needed to make the Bills really effective.  And for Allen to do that, he has to take the high percentage throws more often.   If he can do that better running play action, then great, run more play action.  If he can do that running plays out of the shotgun, works for me.   Just complete more passes. 

 

And I actually don't care if they take the threat of designed runs out of the offense.  Allen shouldn't be running many designed runs.  Where his running hurts teams is his scrambles.  He'll scramble out of any offense, doesn't matter if he's under center or in shotgun.  

 

Allen's physical skills that will make him an all-time great are his arm, number 1, his ability to escape the pocket and throw on the run, number 2, his ability to stay upright in the pocket and not got knocked down easily, number 3, and his ability to run for first downs off scrambles, number 4.  He is not going to win Super Bowls by being a running threat.  Newton didn't win any, Vick didn't win any, Lamar hasn't won any.  Quarterbacks win Super Bowls by being great throwers and field generals.  

Edited September 26, 2023 by Shaw66