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Who does Terry Pegula turn to for counsel when it comes to evaluating Beane & McDermott?


Nephilim17

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12 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Allen has turned the Bills around from being a laughing stock.  Most of or past coaches would have done the same, some that got 9 wins without him.  

 

Those two have underachieved, I suppose it's possible that they don't continue to underachieve, but i'd say is unlikely.  

 

 

 

Err only four coaches between Jim and Josh managed 9 wins. Wade Phillips (twice in three seasons), Mike Mularkey (once in two seasons), Doug Marrone (once in two seasons) and Sean McDermott (once in one season). 

 

The only year that I think McDermott has underachieved as Bills coach was 2021. They underachieved in the regular season, then still got hot at the right time in the post-season then blew it. In 2022 I think given the injuries they had all year 13-3 and a playoff win was probably a slight overachievement, despite the disappointing ending.  

2 minutes ago, SUNY_amherst said:

 

Sean McDermott does

 

With Josh Allen McDermott's playoff losses were to a Houston team that had Watson, Hopkins and Watt; twice to a Chiefs team with Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, Jones and Mathieu; and to a Bengals team with Burrow, Higgins, Chase and Boyd. 

 

I am not sure which of those you think the Bills were clearly more talented than. But they were all at best a wash IMO. 

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There is a very real chance this could be McDermott's final year. If the Bills go backwards for the third consecutive year from AFC Championship game appearance, to close divisional road game loss in OT, to blown out in divisional home game to, losing WC game or worse, that is often a recipe for coaching changes. Even Super Bowl winning coaches commonly get fired after multiple tailing off seasons. 

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Listen guys, I like McDermott — a lot. I'm about as big of a McDermott apologist as there is. 

That being said, history suggests that McDermott and Allen will not win a Super Bowl together. Hell, history suggests that McDermott and Allen will not even get to a Super Bowl together...

Allen and McDermott are going into year 6 as Head Coach and starting QB. No starting QB and Head Coach pairing have ever won their first Super Bowl after being together for 5 seasons. It's crazy, but true. History strongly indicates that 5 seasons is the maximum number of years a starting QB and Head Coach should be given to win a Super Bowl together. 

I hate to say this, but I do think that if the Bills don't win the Super Bowl this year, replacing McDermott would be justified. 

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1 hour ago, WhoTom said:

 

She's definitely the football brain of the operation. My understanding is that her cognitive function is okay, but she has trouble communicating. That certainly precludes her from being the face of the franchise, and I'm guessing her therapy prevents her from engaging in the team's day-to-day activities, but she could still be a valuable resource in the OP's scenario.

 

I think Kim is probably focusing on her recovery. She certainly should be. And she can’t be involved in the day to day activities like she used to be. It is a shame, but it is what it is. 

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Just now, MPL said:

Listen guys, I like McDermott — a lot. I'm about as big of a McDermott apologist as there is. 

That being said, history suggests that McDermott and Allen will not win a Super Bowl together. Hell, history suggests that McDermott and Allen will not even get to a Super Bowl together...

Allen and McDermott are going into year 6 as Head Coach and starting QB. No starting QB and Head Coach pairing have ever won their first Super Bowl after being together for 5 seasons. It's crazy, but true. History strongly indicates that 5 seasons is the maximum number of years a starting QB and Head Coach should be given to win a Super Bowl together. 

I hate to say this, but I do think that if the Bills don't win the Super Bowl this year, replacing McDermott would be justified. 

 

What about Beane. Do you replace him, or does he get the chance to hire the next HC assuming the Bills do move on from McDermott.

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6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

He doesn't seek counsel from anyone. Terry makes decisions. He hired Rex against advice. He fired him (and indeed almost fired him after 1 season). He hired McDermott when Whaley wanted to continue searching. The only decision where it appears he took advice was hiring Beane on McDermott's say so. 

I doubt your correct about that.   He's a successful CEO you're correct, and he makes decisions.   That's what CEOs do.   

 

But successful CEOs also seek advice and listen to others they respect, and I'd be surprised if Terry Pegula is any different.   He may not have had anyone to turn to when he and Kim first took over the Bills, but he's been around the block a few times now, and I'm sure he's developed a network of people in the business.

 

When he bought the team, he hired a consulting company with serious expertise and buying and selling NFL franchises.   That is, he got help making decisions to buy the team.   That was his introduction to the inside.  His consultants certainly knew people in the league, both on the league management side and the team management side, because that's the business they are in.   

 

Pegula has been going to owners meetings for nearly a decade now, and he's worked on committees and shared his ideas with others.   He undoubtedly has relationships, probably a few really good relationships, with other owners.   They talk about running their teams, and about who they rely on.   The owners have access, so if one of Terry's friends tells him to talk to so-and-so, Terry can pick up the phone and call him.  

 

Pegula works regularly with his senior staff, including McDermott and Beane.  Over the course of their working relationships, he's learned what McDermott and Beane think about other people around the league, particularly coaches and GMs.  The coaches and GMs show up at the combine, at owners meetings, and other events, and Pegula surely has met some of them and probably developed informal relationships with at least some. 

 

Think about all of the casual conversations he's had with people in his own organization who have seen a lot in the league.  Forget about what you think about how well they did their jobs; just think about the experiences they've had in the league that they may have shared with Pegula.   Leslie Frazier - decades in the league.  Rex Ryan - decades in the league, and lifetime of experiences through his father.   Marv Levy.  Doug Whaley, who grew up in the Steelers organization.   McDermott and his history in the Eagles organization.   Kyle Williams.  Von Miller.   Ryan FItzpatrick.  Jim Kelly.  Bruce Smith.  

 

Point is, by this point in Pegula's ownership cycle, he knows, is acquainted with, and has access to a lot of people with deep knowledge about pro football.  I would be amazed if he hasn't had conversations with some about how to evaluate your senior management and how to know when it's time to pull the trigger.   Rather, I suspect he's spent a lot of time talking to a lot of people about how they do their jobs, including how to make decisions about coaches and GMs.   He just doesn't talk about it on Twitter.  

 

I seriously doubt that Pegula is thinking, at all, about whether he needs a new head coach, but if he ever begin thinking seriously in that direction, I'm sure he knows plenty of people he can and would go to for advice.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, Gregg said:

 

Right now, both the Bills and Sabres have good management groups in place. As for the football side of things let Beane and McDermott run the show. Terry can handle the business side of things. Its previous obvious now that the Sabres have the right people in place as well. Next year fans should see playoffs in both football and hockey. Hopefully a Super Bowl championship as well. Give the Sabres a few years to learn how to win in the playoffs before any realistic expectations of winning a Cup.

 

I think that’s correct so I don’t see any imminent decisions on GMs and coaches, though I really don’t follow the Sabres. The next Bills GM/HC decision is probably a year and a half away. Beane and McDermott are signed through 2025 so an extension likely would get done toward the end of the 2024 season/league year. Unless the Bills win a SB this season, then they’d get one immediately after that. If they aren’t extended, then after the 2024 season is when I’d expect them to be replaced. 

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1 hour ago, WhoTom said:

 

She's definitely the football brain of the operation. My understanding is that her cognitive function is okay, but she has trouble communicating. That certainly precludes her from being the face of the franchise, and I'm guessing her therapy prevents her from engaging in the team's day-to-day activities, but she could still be a valuable resource in the OP's scenario.

 

 

 

I'd say she is definitely not the football brain of the operation.   Kim has basically always worked for Terry and relationships like that rarely flip 180 degrees.   He bought the toys to enjoy them and her role was managing the less fun day to day business activities while he has been learning about the sports that he bought into.      

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7 minutes ago, MPL said:

Listen guys, I like McDermott — a lot. I'm about as big of a McDermott apologist as there is. 

That being said, history suggests that McDermott and Allen will not win a Super Bowl together. Hell, history suggests that McDermott and Allen will not even get to a Super Bowl together...

Allen and McDermott are going into year 6 as Head Coach and starting QB. No starting QB and Head Coach pairing have ever won their first Super Bowl after being together for 5 seasons. It's crazy, but true. History strongly indicates that 5 seasons is the maximum number of years a starting QB and Head Coach should be given to win a Super Bowl together. 

I hate to say this, but I do think that if the Bills don't win the Super Bowl this year, replacing McDermott would be justified. 

 

History also strongly indicated that Andy Reid would never win a Super Bowl because he didn't do it in his first 20 years.  Has any NFL coach been a HC for 20 years and then won it?  If there is, I don't know about it.

 

History also strongly indicated that a team hosting a Super Bowl will never win a Super Bowl....then it happened two years in a row with the Bucs and Rams.

 

You can manipulate numbers to fit pretty much anything.

 

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13 minutes ago, arcane said:

If I were terry I would turn to his 41 wins over the last 3 seasons, one of 2 teams to win a playoff game each of the last 3 years etc. 

 

Ultimately, I think McDermott and Beane are both safe if they can make it to the Divisional round again. Regardless of game result. If they bow out in the WC, it would be really hard not to want to make a change regardless of combined regular season record over multiple seasons. 

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29 minutes ago, KingBoots8 said:

Obviously he turns to the message board at Two Bills Drive - the largest group of coaching and GM experts congregating together.

Could you see the Bills with the likes of @NUT and @Airseven making decisions?

And you think the Browns and Texans are laughingstocks...

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10 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:


he turns to people definitely smarter than you. Settled? 

I don't know JP.....I don't think that the OP's premise was so outrageous. Don't misunderstand..... I am not crazy about McDermott, but; I am NOT calling for him to be fired at this point. 

Still, the OP asks a fair question imo. 

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2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

History also strongly indicated that Andy Reid would never win a Super Bowl because he didn't do it in his first 20 years.  Has any NFL coach been a HC for 20 years and then won it?  If there is, I don't know about it.

 

History also strongly indicated that a team hosting a Super Bowl will never win a Super Bowl....then it happened two years in a row with the Bucs and Rams.

 

You can manipulate numbers to fit pretty much anything.

 


Oh, for sure. I'm not saying it can't be done, or that just because it's never happened before that it never will. I think it's an interesting philosophical question based on over 50 years of data. I think that when you have a coach and QB pairing that is building but hasn't gotten over the hump for 5 seasons, there becomes a very real mental hurdle to clear in additional to all the physical hurdles a team has to clear over the course of a season. 

 

Andy Reid is an interesting case study. 

Andy Reid and McNabb made a Super Bowl together in their 6th season together, losing to the Patriots. They never came close again after that. 
In Kansas City, Reid and Alex Smith were close for 5 years but couldn't get over the hump together. After those 5 seasons, the Mahomes/Reid era began, which was finally enough to get Reid his first ring. 

 

Again, I'm not saying there's a science to it. I just find that 5 year number to be fascinating. 

 

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11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I doubt your correct about that.   He's a successful CEO you're correct, and he makes decisions.   That's what CEOs do.   

 

But successful CEOs also seek advice and listen to others they respect, and I'd be surprised if Terry Pegula is any different.   He may not have had anyone to turn to when he and Kim first took over the Bills, but he's been around the block a few times now, and I'm sure he's developed a network of people in the business.

 

When he bought the team, he hired a consulting company with serious expertise and buying and selling NFL franchises.   That is, he got help making decisions to buy the team.   That was his introduction to the inside.  His consultants certainly knew people in the league, both on the league management side and the team management side, because that's the business they are in.   

 

Pegula has been going to owners meetings for nearly a decade now, and he's worked on committees and shared his ideas with others.   He undoubtedly has relationships, probably a few really good relationships, with other owners.   They talk about running their teams, and about who they rely on.   The owners have access, so if one of Terry's friends tells him to talk to so-and-so, Terry can pick up the phone and call him.  

 

Pegula works regularly with his senior staff, including McDermott and Beane.  Over the course of their working relationships, he's learned what McDermott and Beane think about other people around the league, particularly coaches and GMs.  The coaches and GMs show up at the combine, at owners meetings, and other events, and Pegula surely has met some of them and probably developed informal relationships with at least some. 

 

Think about all of the casual conversations he's had with people in his own organization who have seen a lot in the league.  Forget about what you think about how well they did their jobs; just think about the experiences they've had in the league that they may have shared with Pegula.   Leslie Frazier - decades in the league.  Rex Ryan - decades in the league, and lifetime of experiences through his father.   Marv Levy.  Doug Whaley, who grew up in the Steelers organization.   McDermott and his history in the Eagles organization.   Kyle Williams.  Von Miller.   Ryan FItzpatrick.  Jim Kelly.  Bruce Smith.  

 

Point is, by this point in Pegula's ownership cycle, he knows, is acquainted with, and has access to a lot of people with deep knowledge about pro football.  I would be amazed if he hasn't had conversations with some about how to evaluate your senior management and how to know when it's time to pull the trigger.   Rather, I suspect he's spent a lot of time talking to a lot of people about how they do their jobs, including how to make decisions about coaches and GMs.   He just doesn't talk about it on Twitter.  

 

I seriously doubt that Pegula is thinking, at all, about whether he needs a new head coach, but if he ever begin thinking seriously in that direction, I'm sure he knows plenty of people he can and would go to for advice.  

 

 

 

 

That was a lot of words to say almost nothing, IMO.   Obviously he talks to other people in his line of business.   What the OP is asking is who does Terry Pegula go to whom he will heed their advice to make decisions.   As @GunnerBill noted.......Terry Pegula very much appears to makes his own decisions for better or worse.   I don't believe he was "advised" to pay $1.4B for the Bills either.   He probably did it against his financial advisor's advice.........the man who tried to talk him out of getting into sports in the first place, as the story went.   

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6 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I don't know JP.....I don't think that the OP's premise was so outrageous. Don't misunderstand..... I am not crazy about McDermott, but; I am NOT calling for him to be fired at this point. 

Still, the OP asks a fair question imo. 


Okay well if Pegula wanted an outside opinion on his coach’s/GM’s performance he has more than enough resources to hire any number of professional talent evaluation firms. 

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I think the whole point of this "Who does Pegula turn to?" conversation is not wondering questions about record. I think we know with this HC, we should be in the playoffs about every year. We come to expect it now.. I think the question is. Does this head coach and this GM  good enough to get us over the hump to make it to a SB game or 2 or 3 in the next 7 years?

 

I think that is the point of conversation is how is our Staff doing against the best teams in the NFL? When it counts? 

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15 minutes ago, MPL said:


Oh, for sure. I'm not saying it can't be done, or that just because it's never happened before that it never will. I think it's an interesting philosophical question based on over 50 years of data. I think that when you have a coach and QB pairing that is building but hasn't gotten over the hump for 5 seasons, there becomes a very real mental hurdle to clear in additional to all the physical hurdles a team has to clear over the course of a season. 

 

Andy Reid is an interesting case study. 

Andy Reid and McNabb made a Super Bowl together in their 6th season together, losing to the Patriots. They never came close again after that. 
In Kansas City, Reid and Alex Smith were close for 5 years but couldn't get over the hump together. After those 5 seasons, the Mahomes/Reid era began, which was finally enough to get Reid his first ring. 

 

Again, I'm not saying there's a science to it. I just find that 5 year number to be fascinating. 

 

 

It is interesting for sure.

 

I just think with today's resources, we are going to see so many new stats.

 

I saw a stat not too long ago for QB's who got to 35 wins the fastest.  Why 35?  That's just a random arbitrary number isn't it?

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29 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

History also strongly indicated that Andy Reid would never win a Super Bowl because he didn't do it in his first 20 years.  Has any NFL coach been a HC for 20 years and then won it?  If there is, I don't know about it.

 

History also strongly indicated that a team hosting a Super Bowl will never win a Super Bowl....then it happened two years in a row with the Bucs and Rams.

 

You can manipulate numbers to fit pretty much anything.

 

 

The numbers are not manipulated. It simply tells us what we already know. Billionaire owners get impatient. We have little reason to believe Terry will be different. 

 

Reid lasted a long time in Philly before finally being fired. There is a chance McDermott could do the same even if he never gets us over the hump. 

 

I'm sure if billionaire owners were more patient overall we would have a handful of head coach / QB combos that have won beyond their 5th year. But patience hasn't been the case often enough. 

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41 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I'd say she is definitely not the football brain of the operation.   Kim has basically always worked for Terry and relationships like that rarely flip 180 degrees.   He bought the toys to enjoy them and her role was managing the less fun day to day business activities while he has been learning about the sports that he bought into.      

 

Terry is a hockey fan from PA. Kim is a professional athlete and a lifelong Bills fan who grew up in WNY. I agree that she has managed the business operations, but there's no doubt that she's got some football acumen - probably more than he does.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

The numbers are not manipulated. It simply tells us what we already know. Billionaire owners get impatient. We have little reason to believe Terry will be different. 

 

Reid lasted a long time in Philly before finally being fired. There is a chance McDermott could do the same even if he never gets us over the hump. 

 

I'm sure if billionaire owners were more patient overall we would have a handful of head coach / QB combos that have won beyond their 5th year. But patience hasn't been the case often enough. 

 

When I say the numbers are manipulated, you can set parameters anywhere you want.  

 

If McDermott doesn't get passed the divisional round this year, his seat should start getting a little hot.

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20 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

It is interesting for sure.

 

I just think with today's resources, we are going to see so many new stats.

 

I saw a stat not too long ago for QB's who got to 35 wins the fastest.  Why 35?  That's just a random arbitrary number isn't it?


Hey, at least it's not baseball where we're tracking things like batting average vs. right handed pitchers during day games in the month of July on grass fields when stadium capacity is above 50% and cloud coverage is below 50% and total hot dog sales have grossed $15,000...

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2 minutes ago, MPL said:


Hey, at least it's not baseball where we're tracking things like batting average vs. right handed pitchers during day games in the month of July on grass fields when stadium capacity is above 50% and cloud coverage is below 50% and total hot dog sales have grossed $15,000...

 

How much did you contribute to that $15,000 in hot dog sales?

I bought two of them at Yankee stadium a few summers ago that I'm still paying off.

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20 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

When I say the numbers are manipulated, you can set parameters anywhere you want.  

 

If McDermott doesn't get passed the divisional round this year, his seat should start getting a little hot.

 

I don't see the parameter as being set at a random number though. It's specifically set at year #5 because that is the year that McDermott and Allen just completed together. We could set it at years 6, 7, and 8 etc. moving forward and it would still be true in that head coach and QB combinations have not won super bowls beyond year 5. 

 

The reason this is the case is that too few head coaches have had the opportunity to still coach their QB's in seasons beyond year #5. Even more don't even make it to a year 3 or 4. This of course is all do to elevated expectations and impatience. 

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3 hours ago, SUNY_amherst said:

 

Totally agree, great post

 

The Steelers are a great example. They really kinda wasted Ben Roethlisberger's talent. He was 26 years old when they won the SB, they should've won a lot more. But they never got a savvy offensive-minded coach to bring out Roethlisberger's true potential. And yeah, they made their fair share of bonehead in-game decisions.

 

I sure hope McDermott doesn't stick around as long as Tomlin has but I fear we could be going down that same road, except without the early SB title as they choked away the 13 sec game

 

 

 

Absolutely correct.  Look at the way Tom Brady's career was ruined by a defensive-minded head coach.  Great QBs need offensive head coaches to succeed in the NFL.

 

Oh, wait a second.  Maybe argument by anecdote doesn't work.  And maybe, just maybe, QBs can thrive under defensive head coaches.  

 

Edited by hondo in seattle
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On 5/18/2023 at 12:14 AM, Nephilim17 said:

When the team is doing well and/or exceeding general expectations, as it has done the past few years, minus, probably, last season, this question is kind of moot.

 

But if and when the team is not meeting expectations or things get complicated, is there anyone in Pegula's circle of friends or trusted business associates (at arm's length from Bills operations) who he can turn to for advice and counsel on questions related to extensions, evaluations, or possible firings?

 

I'm not trying to be negative; I hope McBean lead us to multiple championships... but if things don't go as well as we hope — and with an elite QB things should mean serious contention for a Super Bowl — is Terry on his own or who advises him? 

Pegula seems, obviously, like a sharp businessman, but he doesn't strike me as a football expert. Maybe I'm wrong but I expect him to turn to someone if and when he needs to make tough decisions.

 

Terry seeks advice from the poster formerly known as @IronMaidenBills (now @Araiza Curse) who has touted on this board how good a GM he is

Edited by prissythecat
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50 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

How much did you contribute to that $15,000 in hot dog sales?

I bought two of them at Yankee stadium a few summers ago that I'm still paying off.


I have paid off my student loan debt faster than my hot dog debt. I mean, I don't know why we're not talking about hot dog debt cancelation in this country. It's out of control. 

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1 minute ago, MPL said:


I have paid off my student loan debt faster than my hot dog debt. I mean, I don't know why we're not talking about hot dog debt cancelation in this country. It's out of control. 

 

If you fall behind on your hot dog payments, try to ketchup right away with all the relish you can muster. 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

When the team is doing well and/or exceeding general expectations, as it has done the past few years, minus, probably, last season, this question is kind of moot.

 

But if and when the team is not meeting expectations or things get complicated, is there anyone in Pegula's circle of friends or trusted business associates (at arm's length from Bills operations) who he can turn to for advice and counsel on questions related to extensions, evaluations, or possible firings?

 

I'm not trying to be negative; I hope McBean lead us to multiple championships... but if things don't go as well as we hope — and with an elite QB things should mean serious contention for a Super Bowl — is Terry on his own or who advises him? 

Pegula seems, obviously, like a sharp businessman, but he doesn't strike me as a football expert. Maybe I'm wrong but I expect him to turn to someone if and when he needs to make tough decisions.

 

You obviously have some intelligence because you can read and write.  However I'm 100% certain there are areas that you are severely lacking in expertise.  If you own a car and are not in anyway an expert in automotive engineering however did you choose what car to buy and drive?  If you just went out and bought the first car that you saw with the color you liked best and it turns out that it's always breaking down and in the shop for repairs no doubt you would do a little better research as you look to replace it.  If the car you buy is dependable and it gets you where you need to be do you replace it because the time you drove to the restaurant that serves your favorite meals is closed when you get there. 

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18 minutes ago, AuntieEm said:

You obviously have some intelligence because you can read and write.  However I'm 100% certain there are areas that you are severely lacking in expertise. 

Well, I 100% agree I am lacking in football "expertise" as I'm a fan, not a professional team employee. That said, I never touted myself to be an expert.

 

In fact, a careful look at my original post will show that I'm asking questions, not telling people here what Terry is or should be doing. I think when someone asks questions they're looking to become informed, not trying to convince others that they are an expert and know what's best.

 

Also, I'm not suggesting that Terry fires Beane and/or McDermott, I'm merely asking when it's time to make decisions on those men (for an extension, after a championship win, after missing the playoffs — there are many positive and negative and neutral reasons when a decision may be needed), does Terry make this decision by himself.

 

I've seen a lot of differing answers:
1) No, Terry pays professional consulting firms to help him.

2) Yes, it's all him as he owns the team.

3) No, he has relationships with many other owners and league execs and relies on them for advice (this doesn't mean, however, that he doesn't make the final decision).

4) Kim was a big part of this but now she's not able to fulfill this role.

5) Certain posters here should be consulted when making executive decisions. :)

 

I don't know the answer and I'm not giving any; I just thought it was an interesting question to consider.

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