RD 1, Pick 25: TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah

[HappyDays]

I never get tired of this stuff.

 

 

[newcam2012]

Great value. One of the steals of the draft. 

 

Has the next Travis Kelce written all over him. 

[Bookie Man]

Remember how bad we've been on 3rd & short. Could see some interesting sub packages with 13 personnel. 

[Bookie Man]

On 4/28/2023 at 6:45 AM, SCBills said:

If the Cowboys war room after we drafted Kincaid is any indication.. they wanted him BAD.  

 

Place was in shambles. 

Anybody have a link to a video? I'd love to see this 😄.

[GETTOTHE50]

him and knox are going to be great together.

[PrimeTime101]

17 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

him and knox are going to be great together.

I agree, he will elevate Knox, Knox and Kincaid are going to give teams nightmares. 

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Thrivefourfive said:

Please count me in that group as well. Kelce’s numbers are from his talent, QB’s talent, his coaches.. play design. If Allen were his quarterback in KC, I think Kelce’s numbers drop a bit. Just my opinion.

 

Of course we’d be insane not to take Kelce’s career right now for Kincaid. But I think even if he had all of the above help as Kelce does, he’s not touching those numbers. And that’s fine. But for a rd 1, that cost the team to move into, and the declare for “Help for Josh!” he’s going to have to do big numbers to be a success. 80 catches, 900 yds, 8+ TDs (not as a rookie or even year 2 or 3, but it has to trend that way and he’ll need a four year avg of those number in his prime).

I'm not sure that's what the Bills are thinking.  They don't need big numbers out of him; they need him to threaten to put up big numbers, to force the defense to adjust to him.   He needs to be a better, more consistent threat than Knox.  That will create opportunity for the whole receiving corps.  The point is to be able to attack the whole field, really threaten the whole field, with skill players everywhere in the passing game.   He doesn't have to be uncoverable; he just has to be a matchup nightmare.  

[Dr. Who]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm not sure that's what the Bills are thinking.  They don't need big numbers out of him; they need him to threaten to put up big numbers, to force the defense to adjust to him.   He needs to be a better, more consistent threat than Knox.  That will create opportunity for the whole receiving corps.  The point is to be able to attack the whole field, really threaten the whole field, with skill players everywhere in the passing game.   He doesn't have to be uncoverable; he just has to be a matchup nightmare.  

I think there is some truth to what you assert, but there's also something circular in the argument. Unless Kincaid puts up sufficient numbers to establish a consistent threat across the entire field, the defense will ultimately accept a certain amount of damage and concentrate elsewhere. Seems to me that level of sufficient is likely to entail a pretty big number and not simply a collection of opportune moments, though there may be a gray area between a high target number and what is enough to influence the defense.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

I think there is some truth to what you assert, but there's also something circular in the argument. Unless Kincaid puts up sufficient numbers to establish a consistent threat across the entire field, the defense will ultimately accept a certain amount of damage and concentrate elsewhere. Seems to me that level of sufficient is likely to entail a pretty big number and not simply a collection of opportune moments, though there may be a gray area between a high target number and what is enough to influence the defense.

Well said.  I agree.  Gray area.   I'd guess that McBeane want enough to influence the defense, and if they get more, great.  

[buffaloboyinATL]

3 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I think there is some truth to what you assert, but there's also something circular in the argument. Unless Kincaid puts up sufficient numbers to establish a consistent threat across the entire field, the defense will ultimately accept a certain amount of damage and concentrate elsewhere. Seems to me that level of sufficient is likely to entail a pretty big number and not simply a collection of opportune moments, though there may be a gray area between a high target number and what is enough to influence the defense.

You’re either very philosophical, or very high.  
 

that being said, I got it.    

[BuffaloRebound]

Hard to be a top pass catcher without elite hands.  That’s what holds back Knox from taking the next step.  Same with Gabe.  Mckenzie was even more inconsistent catching the ball.  None of our RB’s have great hands either.  I expect Kincaid to be Josh’s #2 target rather quickly.  

[John from Riverside]

6 hours ago, Demongyz said:

It's really not that strange at all.  They don't have the law on beer anymore, and even Oregon requires you purchase alcohol from a state owned liquor store.  So Utah is pretty much like Oregon without the weed and heroin.

 

Edit:  I think you still can only order 1 drink at a time at a restaurant and must order food, or would be required to get a "membership" to go to a bar.  It wasn't that big of a deal the only time I've gone to a bar in Utah as my friend sponsored me, it was really weird though.

Lived in Utah as a child, the Mormon church dominates everything down there

8 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Hard to be a top pass catcher without elite hands.  That’s what holds back Knox from taking the next step.  Same with Gabe.  Mckenzie was even more inconsistent catching the ball.  None of our RB’s have great hands either.  I expect Kincaid to be Josh’s #2 target rather quickly.  

He’s a big boy to I think he’s weighing in at what 248 pounds you get him into an NFL weight room his body comp could be even better

[Demongyz]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

Lived in Utah as a child, the Mormon church dominates everything down there

Eh, that does depend.  Where I grew up for sure, but in SLC it's probably not even 50% anymore, and the church isn't as pervasive, however, when  the majority of Illinois is chased out under penalty of death, and they move to the middle of nowhere, it's going to be majority for quite some time.

 

Also my folks are LDS and they are great people, so not much I can say against the church.

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, Demongyz said:

Eh, that does depend.  Where I grew up for sure, but in SLC it's probably not even 50% anymore, and the church isn't as pervasive, however, when  the majority of Illinois is chased out under penalty of death, and they move to the middle of nowhere, it's going to be majority for quite some time.

 

Also my folks are LDS and they are great people, so not much I can say against the church.

I lived in Victor Idaho population like 300 lol
 

They had a chokehold on everything there. If you did not go to their church, you could not get a job they control the schools they control city government police department everything.

 

Was a long time ago I was a preteen and I’m 54 years old. Now I witnessed a classmate get beat bloody by the principal, and he got away with it because he was Highup in the church.

 

I am not a fan of the Mormon church at all. They would routinely canvas in my neighborhood here in California and I would threaten to sick my dogs on them. Eventually they stop stopping at my house.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I really loved this pick but then he went sockless for his Buffalo arrival. Major red flag.

[Shaw66]

12 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I think there is some truth to what you assert, but there's also something circular in the argument. Unless Kincaid puts up sufficient numbers to establish a consistent threat across the entire field, the defense will ultimately accept a certain amount of damage and concentrate elsewhere. Seems to me that level of sufficient is likely to entail a pretty big number and not simply a collection of opportune moments, though there may be a gray area between a high target number and what is enough to influence the defense.

I think another way to put it is that I think the Bills hope that Kincaid will add 1000 yards to the passing offense, but it doesn't matter who gets the 1000 yards.  If he gets 600, Diggs get 200, and the other 200 is spread around among others, Diggs will get the accolades but it's the threat over the middle that can be the change that makes it happen. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Shaw66

[Don Otreply]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm not sure that's what the Bills are thinking.  They don't need big numbers out of him; they need him to threaten to put up big numbers, to force the defense to adjust to him.   He needs to be a better, more consistent threat than Knox.  That will create opportunity for the whole receiving corps.  The point is to be able to attack the whole field, really threaten the whole field, with skill players everywhere in the passing game.   He doesn't have to be uncoverable; he just has to be a matchup nightmare.  

I hear you, and agree, but to be proven as that threat, he has to have “done it”, and the sooner the better.  Then what you are getting at, and what we all want will come to fruition.  He will need to have early success in his first season to become that match up nightmare / threat going forward.  It is between KD, JA, DK and the O-line to make this happen…

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Don Otreply said:

I hear you, and agree, but to be proven as that threat, he has to have “done it”, and the sooner the better.  Then what you are getting at, and what we all want will come to fruition.  He will need to have early success in his first season to become that match up nightmare / threat going forward.  It is between KD, JA, DK and the O-line to make this happen…

Yes.   I think what I'm talking about is that the Bills don't need Kincaid to be practically unstoppable like Kelce.  He just has to be, as I said earlier, a bigger threat than Knox has been.   He has to be a threat who can make the defense pay for over-committing to the Bills' wideouts.   

 

I always liked Robert Woods for that characteristic.  He has had two 1000-yard seasons, but they were with Sean McVay, the modern mad bomber.   He didn't need to get 1000 - what made Woods so good was that he caught enough big passes that the defense was forced to pay attention to him all the time.  Davis didn't do that last season; maybe he will this year.   We hoped Knox could be that kind of guy, but he hasn't risen to that level, either.  

[mannc]

15 hours ago, Demongyz said:

It's really not that strange at all.  They don't have the law on beer anymore, and even Oregon requires you purchase alcohol from a state owned liquor store.  So Utah is pretty much like Oregon without the weed and heroin.

 

 

Nope. In Oregon you can buy beer/wine in any convenience or grocery store at any time. You must be thinking about Massachusetts or Ontario.

[dave mcbride]

17 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I guess I would also add that hopefully Kincaid can beat people with his size and route running. Jimmy Graham was always super raw, one year of college football, and really never a great route runner. He was jumping over people and there was never really much savvy to his game. The savvy was in the way Sean Payton used him in NO. That was the difference when he moved to Seattle imo. 
 

Kincaid isn’t quite the explosive athlete Graham was, but he seems to have some deep knowledge of coverages and a ton of savvy in his game to go along with speed and huge hands. If Kincaid is truly a roided up Beasley, he could be unstoppable in this offense. 

I guess I never realized how productive of a career Graham had - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GrahJi00.htm. He always seemed vaguely disappointing to me, but I had forgotten those monster seasons he had in NO. I just don't think Russell Wilson was the right QB for him. Wilson at his best was a guy who would let the play break down and then effectively play street ball, and for a number of years he was the best at it in the league. Mobility for that style of play is required, though. Anyway, TEs tend to not get as much love as downfield receivers in street ball.

Edited May 1, 2023 by dave mcbride

[Don Otreply]

49 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes.   I think what I'm talking about is that the Bills don't need Kincaid to be practically unstoppable like Kelce.  He just has to be, as I said earlier, a bigger threat than Knox has been.   He has to be a threat who can make the defense pay for over-committing to the Bills' wideouts.   

 

I always liked Robert Woods for that characteristic.  He has had two 1000-yard seasons, but they were with Sean McVay, the modern mad bomber.   He didn't need to get 1000 - what made Woods so good was that he caught enough big passes that the defense was forced to pay attention to him all the time.  Davis didn't do that last season; maybe he will this year.   We hoped Knox could be that kind of guy, but he hasn't risen to that level, either.  

Yup, I think we see this in a similar light, 👍

[Figster]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes.   I think what I'm talking about is that the Bills don't need Kincaid to be practically unstoppable like Kelce.  He just has to be, as I said earlier, a bigger threat than Knox has been.   He has to be a threat who can make the defense pay for over-committing to the Bills' wideouts.   

 

I always liked Robert Woods for that characteristic.  He has had two 1000-yard seasons, but they were with Sean McVay, the modern mad bomber.   He didn't need to get 1000 - what made Woods so good was that he caught enough big passes that the defense was forced to pay attention to him all the time.  Davis didn't do that last season; maybe he will this year.   We hoped Knox could be that kind of guy, but he hasn't risen to that level, either.  

Kincaid is the TE draft pick I thought Buffalo would never make and it caught me completely by surprise. Pick thwarted both Dallas and Cinci and very well could be remembered as the 1st round draft choice by the Bills crafty young GM that put Buffalo over the top IMO.

[NewEra]

21 hours ago, Thrivefourfive said:

I am confused by all this WR talk. He’s a TE, not a slot WR. In the NFL his mismatch is going to be boxing out strong safeties and beating linebackers up seams and crossing routes. Then some quirky shovel passes and whatnot. 
 

If he’s a WR, than he’ll draw coverage from a strong DB that can most certainly run with him, and over the top help.. because he seems to be the Bills deep threat(??)

 

To make this pick worth it, creativity that the Bills haven’t shown last year, needs to happen. Kelce type play designs need to happen. That’s a first round TE. But Kelce makes it work because he’s so damn good, and he’s got the best QB in football working together with him as the primary target. If Kincaid is just going to go out there and bag 50 catches for 500 yds and 5 touchdowns then what the hell is going on here..

He’s going to be lining up In the slot.  Hence why people are calling him a WR.

 

why do you say that he’s going to be a 50-500-5 TD guy?  Who is saying this is what McB is envisioning?  Maybe as a rookie- his numbers will resemble that stat line.  Going forward, expect much more.  

[Mat68]

Buffalo needed to add some size outside.  Listening to Beane I believe he was the highest skill player they graded.  Beane feels Kincaid will fill the role Beasley left.  Based off what people are saying Kincaid could become a target machine very early for Josh.  

[Chaos]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes.   I think what I'm talking about is that the Bills don't need Kincaid to be practically unstoppable like Kelce.  He just has to be, as I said earlier, a bigger threat than Knox has been.   He has to be a threat who can make the defense pay for over-committing to the Bills' wideouts.   

 

I always liked Robert Woods for that characteristic.  He has had two 1000-yard seasons, but they were with Sean McVay, the modern mad bomber.   He didn't need to get 1000 - what made Woods so good was that he caught enough big passes that the defense was forced to pay attention to him all the time.  Davis didn't do that last season; maybe he will this year.   We hoped Knox could be that kind of guy, but he hasn't risen to that level, either.  

I don't see kindcaid and knox as competing for TE1 at all.  Knox will play TE1 and Kincaid will line up in the slot on 1TE sets.  and kincaid will move over to TE2 in two tight end sets.   Kindcaids flexibiliytin this regard gives him a McCafferty-like confusion to the defense about what the offense is planning. Defense simply can't judge based on personnel in the huddle when you have a guy like that. 

 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Chaos

[Mat68]

6 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I don't see kindcaid and knox as competing for TE1 at all.  Knox will play TE1 and Kincaid will line up in the slot on 1TE sets.  and kincaid will move over to TE2 in two tight end sets.   Kindcaids flexibiliytin this regard gives him a McCafferty-like confusion to the defense about what the offense is planning. Defense simply can't judge based on personnel in the huddle when you have a guy like that. 

 

He has the ability to be Beasley, Gilliam and Morris at any time.  Buffalo has some interesting options at Wr and Rb.  Imo Kincaid allows Buffalo to utilize them all in deferent ways.  I believe Kincaid gets more than 70 targets this year and next year gets over 100. 

[Shaw66]

44 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I don't see kindcaid and knox as competing for TE1 at all.  Knox will play TE1 and Kincaid will line up in the slot on 1TE sets.  and kincaid will move over to TE2 in two tight end sets.   Kindcaids flexibiliytin this regard gives him a McCafferty-like confusion to the defense about what the offense is planning. Defense simply can't judge based on personnel in the huddle when you have a guy like that. 

 

That's interesting and makes sense to me.  Thanks.   Actually, it's better than that, if Cook's on the field with Kincaid.  Now you're saying to the defense, "We may be two TE with a good running back, or we may have Kincaid in the slot or we may be five wide.  Which personnel do you want on the field, and which defense do you want to play?"  And by the way, that's the way Kincaid's presence, if he can be what we think, can be more valuable than just his numbers.   That shows why he doesn't have to be Kelce to be great for the Bills.

 

I really wasn't talking about whether Knox would be 1 or 2 positionally.  I was talking about productivity in the offense, which is where I think Kincaid could surpass Knox.  

 

Man, for the first time I'm getting a sense of how dangerous this offense could be.   Cook and Murray or Harris, with Hines to change the pace.  A veritable fleet of receivers, with Diggs and Davis and the slot guys and who knows, maybe a rookie surprise, Knox and Kincaid.  Josh Allen at the helm, behind a seriously beefed up offensive line.  Tackles have to get the job done, and if all that comes together, that's massive firepower.  

[Thrivefourfive]

18 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm not sure that's what the Bills are thinking.  They don't need big numbers out of him; they need him to threaten to put up big numbers, to force the defense to adjust to him.   He needs to be a better, more consistent threat than Knox.  That will create opportunity for the whole receiving corps.  The point is to be able to attack the whole field, really threaten the whole field, with skill players everywhere in the passing game.   He doesn't have to be uncoverable; he just has to be a matchup nightmare.  

Like a decoy? I joke. I understand what you’re saying. But it does have me thinking that if he’s not an all out baller, couldn’t any team create mismatches with non-ballers? I don’t think they do. It’s not that easy. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Thrivefourfive

[LeGOATski]

Kincaid should definitely surpass Knox in catches and TDs by year 2, if not by year 1. They gave up a first and fourth for him. He needs to be used and should be the #2 target behind Diggs. I like the flexibility of their personnel, but just wary of their commitment to utilize it. Supposedly Dorsey likes 12 personnel, but we didn't see it so much last year. They haven't liked to target Knox as much as they could have. Josh loves the intermediate and deep routes and how much time will he actually have to hit those to a slower TE. They'll need to come up with ways to mesh Josh's and Kincaid's tendencies and abilities. On paper, it doesn't seem as nice a fit as an elite WR would, but I love the potential.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

We should stop calling him a WR for future contract negotiations sake.

[Warriorspikes51]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

We should stop calling him a WR for future contract negotiations sake.

 

New position invented by the Bills:  WE   Wide End 

[Thrivefourfive]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

He’s going to be lining up In the slot.  Hence why people are calling him a WR.

 

why do you say that he’s going to be a 50-500-5 TD guy?  Who is saying this is what McB is envisioning?  Maybe as a rookie- his numbers will resemble that stat line.  Going forward, expect much more.  

Those are numbers of a good, playable TE in the NFL. The next level starts with 7s. 9s are completely elite.

[NewEra]

Just now, Thrivefourfive said:

Those are numbers of a good, playable TE in the NFL. The next level starts with 7s. 9s are completely elite.

Right——- does he have those numbers?  Wth are you even talking about?  
 

are you predicting that if he goes 50-500-5 in his rookie year that he’ll continue to put up those numbers every year?  

[Mat68]

29 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's interesting and makes sense to me.  Thanks.   Actually, it's better than that, if Cook's on the field with Kincaid.  Now you're saying to the defense, "We may be two TE with a good running back, or we may have Kincaid in the slot or we may be five wide.  Which personnel do you want on the field, and which defense do you want to play?"  And by the way, that's the way Kincaid's presence, if he can be what we think, can be more valuable than just his numbers.   That shows why he doesn't have to be Kelce to be great for the Bills.

 

I really wasn't talking about whether Knox would be 1 or 2 positionally.  I was talking about productivity in the offense, which is where I think Kincaid could surpass Knox.  

 

Man, for the first time I'm getting a sense of how dangerous this offense could be.   Cook and Murray or Harris, with Hines to change the pace.  A veritable fleet of receivers, with Diggs and Davis and the slot guys and who knows, maybe a rookie surprise, Knox and Kincaid.  Josh Allen at the helm, behind a seriously beefed up offensive line.  Tackles have to get the job done, and if all that comes together, that's massive firepower.  

More matchup specific vs just lining up in 11 rotating different guys in the slot.  I like the multiplicity and personal groupings that will make defenses make choices.  You probably will be able to dictate what defenses will do by subbing in Harris or Hines.  

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

Buffalo needed to add some size outside.  Listening to Beane I believe he was the highest skill player they graded.  Beane feels Kincaid will fill the role Beasley left.  Based off what people are saying Kincaid could become a target machine very early for Josh.  

 

Between Kincaid and Shorter, we just got bigger in the red zone too, if they want to go that way. I don’t know that we’ll see Shorter much on offense this year, but I do love a pleasant surprise! 

[Shaw66]

58 minutes ago, Thrivefourfive said:

Like a decoy? I joke. I understand what you’re saying. But it does have me thinking that if he’s not an all out baller, couldn’t any team create mismatches with non-ballers? I don’t think they do. It’s not that easy. 

Well, I can't define baller, but I get the idea.  As Mat68 others were saying, it's about mismatches.   If Kincaid is as predicted, he alone is a mismatch.   He can be a tight end in two-TE sets, he can flex out, be in the slot.   It's not just lining up there - he can make the plays that come out of those sets.   Since he's a mismatch, he forces the opponent into particular, predictable defenses.  That means the Bills can know, pre-snap what the defense will be and, more importantly, where to attack.  Big advantage, even though most of time, where to attack will not be Kincaid.  Cook gives the Bills some of that.   And I wouldn't be surprised to see Diggs in the slot from time to time.  By loading the field with guys who can hurt you in multiple ways, you can be powerful. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Shaw66

[Demongyz]

6 hours ago, mannc said:

Nope. In Oregon you can buy beer/wine in any convenience or grocery store at any time. You must be thinking about Massachusetts or Ontario.

I'm talking about hard liquor.  You can buy beer anywhere.  Wine is also at the liquor store in Utah.

[Ralonzo]

15 hours ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

You’re either very philosophical, or very high.  
 

that being said, I got it.    

 

I mean, I get what he said. In this league coordinators will adjust when they are given a reason to adjust. Until then, show me. Like when Cornelius Bennett played his first game. Oh, a rookie. Yeah, we'll just put our tight end or tackle on you, that should do it. Lasted about 4 snaps until Denver figured out they had to double him.

[Since1981]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

Kindcaids flexibiliytin this regard gives him a McCafferty-like confusion to the defense about what the offense is planning. Defense simply can't judge based on personnel in the huddle when you have a guy like that

This is KEY!

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

I don't see kindcaid and knox as competing for TE1 at all.  Knox will play TE1 and Kincaid will line up in the slot on 1TE sets.  and kincaid will move over to TE2 in two tight end sets.   Kindcaids flexibiliytin this regard gives him a McCafferty-like confusion to the defense about what the offense is planning. Defense simply can't judge based on personnel in the huddle when you have a guy like that. 

 

Great post. 💯