Draft Busts 2023

[Zerovoltz]

Who is getting all the hype that isn't deserving?  Who is destined for a bad situation never to live up to their potential?  Who just plain sucks?  Make your call here.

 

1.  CJ Stroud.  QB, Ohio St.  He played great VS Georgia, but I see the same one read guy that Ohio St. always has throwing to NFL WR's behind and NFL line.  

2. Tyree Wilson.  Edge, Texas Tech.  I just don't see it.  For being the size and measurables he is, that guy should have been killing it in college.

3.  Peter Skoronski. OT, Northwestern.  I'm not guying that he can play LT with his T rex arms.  I'll believe it when I see it.  I wouldn't risk a top 10 pick to find out.

4. Darnell Wright OT, Tennessee.  This one is more situational than others..but he needs to be on a run heavy team IMO.  I'm not sold on his pass blocking as a LT in the NFL.

5. Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern.  Pains me to say it becasue he's a Kansas City kid, but dude was destined for 4th or 5th round until the combine.  Workout warrior.

6. Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon St.  Will join a long list of athletic TE who actually were never good at plaing TE but get drafted like they are.

7. Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota St.  Getting WAY too much hype.  Played small school that RUNS most of the time.  This is not an NFL caliber pass blocker.

 

[GunnerBill]

I'll go 1 by 1 through yours:

 

1. CJ Stroud - I don't think he will bust. Will he become a top end guy? No maybe not. Not sure what the ceiling is. But he is the most accurate passer I have seen come out of Ohio State. 

 

2. Tyree Wilson - needs the right situation is still very raw - but if he finds he could be a star. If he doesn't the bust potential is there.

 

3. Peter Skoronski - I agree he can't play left tackle. I have him graded as a guard with some tackle flex. I think at guard he could be very, very good.

 

4. Darnell Wright - If you play Wright LT in the NFL he is for sure a bust. He couldn't play left tackle in college. His shot at being a decent NFL player is at right tackle.

 

5. Adetomiwa Adebawore - 100% agree.

 

6. Luke Musgrave - yea boom or bust. Huge projection. Wouldn't shock me if he busted. 

 

7. Cody Mauch - again he is a bust if you want to play him at tackle. He is a guard where he has a chance to be a starter (but he won't be a pro bowl type).

 

Then I'll add a few of my own. 

 

8. Dawand Jones - there isn't one thing to like about him technically. Why might he get drafted early? Because he is a huge man and played at a big school. That's it.

 

9. Zay Flowers - he is too small. Too weak. Lacks length. He might be a serviceable slot and gimmick player somewhere for a few years. That's it.

 

10. Nolan Smith - I don't think he knows what he is doing. He got by in college on his own superior talent and the superior talent of those around him. If someone wanted to take a shot late 2nd or in the 3rd round in the hopes of coaching him up, I could get behind it. But he us gonna go round 1 and I see no pass rush skill or technique there at all.

Edited April 6, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Sherlock Holmes]

11 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

Who is getting all the hype that isn't deserving?  Who is destined for a bad situation never to live up to their potential?  Who just plain sucks?  Make your call here.

 

1.  CJ Stroud.  QB, Ohio St.  He played great VS Georgia, but I see the same one read guy that Ohio St. always has throwing to NFL WR's behind and NFL line.  

2. Tyree Wilson.  Edge, Texas Tech.  I just don't see it.  For being the size and measurables he is, that guy should have been killing it in college.

3.  Peter Skoronski. OT, Northwestern.  I'm not guying that he can play LT with his T rex arms.  I'll believe it when I see it.  I wouldn't risk a top 10 pick to find out.

4. Darnell Wright OT, Tennessee.  This one is more situational than others..but he needs to be on a run heavy team IMO.  I'm not sold on his pass blocking as a LT in the NFL.

5. Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern.  Pains me to say it becasue he's a Kansas City kid, but dude was destined for 4th or 5th round until the combine.  Workout warrior.

6. Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon St.  Will join a long list of athletic TE who actually were never good at plaing TE but get drafted like they are.

7. Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota St.  Getting WAY too much hype.  Played small school that RUNS most of the time.  This is not an NFL caliber pass blocker.

 

You're out of line on Skoronski, Mauch and Musgrave...

[SoCal Deek]

Well it’s settled then. The Bills should sit this draft out. 😉

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Well it’s settled then. The Bills should sit this draft out. 😉

 

I mean if you were ever going to sit a draft out, fall asleep Marv Levy style and wake up on Sunday realising you missed all your picks..... this is the one to do it in. Haha.

[mjt328]

19 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

Who is getting all the hype that isn't deserving?  Who is destined for a bad situation never to live up to their potential?  Who just plain sucks?  Make your call here.

 

1.  CJ Stroud.  QB, Ohio St.  He played great VS Georgia, but I see the same one read guy that Ohio St. always has throwing to NFL WR's behind and NFL line.  

2. Tyree Wilson.  Edge, Texas Tech.  I just don't see it.  For being the size and measurables he is, that guy should have been killing it in college.

3.  Peter Skoronski. OT, Northwestern.  I'm not guying that he can play LT with his T rex arms.  I'll believe it when I see it.  I wouldn't risk a top 10 pick to find out.

4. Darnell Wright OT, Tennessee.  This one is more situational than others..but he needs to be on a run heavy team IMO.  I'm not sold on his pass blocking as a LT in the NFL.

5. Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern.  Pains me to say it becasue he's a Kansas City kid, but dude was destined for 4th or 5th round until the combine.  Workout warrior.

6. Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon St.  Will join a long list of athletic TE who actually were never good at plaing TE but get drafted like they are.

7. Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota St.  Getting WAY too much hype.  Played small school that RUNS most of the time.  This is not an NFL caliber pass blocker.

 

 

Disagree on CJ Stroud.

Quarterbacks are tough to evaluate, but he has shown the ability to make all the throws and has pretty good accuracy.  And I really like the situation he's likely going into with Carolina and Frank Reich.  I would take him before Bryce Young without question.

 

My biggest question with him, is that he's played with nothing but NFL-quality wide receivers.

[John from Riverside]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean if you were ever going to sit a draft out, fall asleep Marv Levy style and wake up on Sunday realising you missed all your picks..... this is the one to do it in. Haha.

Or just be lazy and push all the pics to the following year

[dpberr]

Jalen Carter is Marcel Dareus v 2.0.  

 

Anthony Richardson:  95% athlete, 5% football player.  He'd benefit sitting for 2023-2024 and learning the game but some team will make the mistake and try to play him immediately and he'll fare poorly.  

[CookieG]

37 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

Who is getting all the hype that isn't deserving?  Who is destined for a bad situation never to live up to their potential?  Who just plain sucks?  Make your call here.

 

1.  CJ Stroud.  QB, Ohio St.  He played great VS Georgia, but I see the same one read guy that Ohio St. always has throwing to NFL WR's behind and NFL line.  

2. Tyree Wilson.  Edge, Texas Tech.  I just don't see it.  For being the size and measurables he is, that guy should have been killing it in college.

3.  Peter Skoronski. OT, Northwestern.  I'm not guying that he can play LT with his T rex arms.  I'll believe it when I see it.  I wouldn't risk a top 10 pick to find out.

4. Darnell Wright OT, Tennessee.  This one is more situational than others..but he needs to be on a run heavy team IMO.  I'm not sold on his pass blocking as a LT in the NFL.

5. Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern.  Pains me to say it becasue he's a Kansas City kid, but dude was destined for 4th or 5th round until the combine.  Workout warrior.

6. Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon St.  Will join a long list of athletic TE who actually were never good at plaing TE but get drafted like they are.

7. Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota St.  Getting WAY too much hype.  Played small school that RUNS most of the time.  This is not an NFL caliber pass blocker.

 

I don't agree on Darnell Wright, except the LT part, since he's  RT and that's where he'll play.

 

When he was born, the doctor most definitely told his mother, "Ma'am, your son is going to be a Right tackle in the NFL."

 

Watch the tape against Georgia and Alabama and watch the Senior Bowl practices.  There's actually a great video on Youtube analyzing his footwork.  Its very good.

 

If you watch the Alabama tape, you might finish it wondering if its not Will Anderson who might be the bust.  Wright did that good of a job on him.

[HappyDays]

I'll put myself out there and say Jaxon Smith-Njigba will bust, at least relative to his draft spot. A WR with just okay size metrics who missed a year with a lower leg injury... that's a scary combination. I would feel better if it was an ACL tear which is just a freak injury that can happen to anyone, but hamstring injuries tend to follow you throughout your career. If he was explosive I would say bet on the traits. But I just don't get excited enough about his ceiling to think he's worth the risk.

[Sestak4ever]

2 hours ago, dpberr said:

Jalen Carter is Marcel Dareus v 2.0.  

 

Anthony Richardson:  95% athlete, 5% football player.  He'd benefit sitting for 2023-2024 and learning the game but some team will make the mistake and try to play him immediately and he'll fare poorly.  

I agree 100% on Richardson. Some team will overdraft him and be incredibly disappointed.

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, dpberr said:

Jalen Carter is Marcel Dareus v 2.0.  

 

Anthony Richardson:  95% athlete, 5% football player.  He'd benefit sitting for 2023-2024 and learning the game but some team will make the mistake and try to play him immediately and he'll fare poorly.  

Dareus was a beast when he wanted to be.  Shame what happened to him. He could still be in the league if he wanted to be.

 

and Richardson was the type of qb prospect I hated in the first round. But after Allen, if he goes to the right team and situation, who knows now? 
 

and I hate Wil Levis. I think he sucks and he’s older too. Don’t get the hype. 

9 minutes ago, Sestak4ever said:

I agree 100% on Richardson. Some team will overdraft him and be incredibly disappointed.

But isn’t that what people were saying about Allen? Shoot, I said that. 

[LyndonvilleBill]

11 minutes ago, Sestak4ever said:

I agree 100% on Richardson. Some team will overdraft him and be incredibly disappointed.

Didn't people say the same about Lamar? Great RB, not so great as a QB? I would think if he is put in the right situation (ie. Ravenst type O), he may be better than expected. From the little I've seen of him, he hast the arm talent and physical skills.🤔

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Whoever Beane picks

 

- Thad Brown, probably 

[dave mcbride]

54 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Dareus was a beast when he wanted to be.  Shame what happened to him. He could still be in the league if he wanted to be.

 

and Richardson was the type of qb prospect I hated in the first round. But after Allen, if he goes to the right team and situation, who knows now? 
 

and I hate Wil Levis. I think he sucks and he’s older too. Don’t get the hype. 

But isn’t that what people were saying about Allen? Shoot, I said that. 

It seems to me that Allen was quite a bit different. He elevated a bad, low talent team into a winning one while Richardson is a .500 qb for a program that regularly pumps out NFL players. 

 

In the four years prior to Allen becoming the starter, they went 4-8, 5-7, 4-8, and 2-10 (the year immediately prior to him starting). With him as starter, they went 8-6 and 8-5. The talent on Wyoming is leagues worse than Florida's. Florida went 6-7 in both years that Richardson started. In the three years prior to Richardson starting, Florida went 10-3, 11-2, and 8-4. 

49 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

Didn't people say the same about Lamar? Great RB, not so great as a QB? I would think if he is put in the right situation (ie. Ravenst type O), he may be better than expected. From the little I've seen of him, he hast the arm talent and physical skills.🤔

Lamar's team won when he was there. And largely because of him. Florida under Richardson? Not so much. They actually became much worse after he took over.

Edited April 6, 2023 by dave mcbride

[LabattBlue]

4 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

Who is getting all the hype that isn't deserving?  Who is destined for a bad situation never to live up to their potential?  Who just plain sucks?  Make your call here.

 

1.  CJ Stroud.  QB, Ohio St.  He played great VS Georgia, but I see the same one read guy that Ohio St. always has throwing to NFL WR's behind and NFL line.  

2. Tyree Wilson.  Edge, Texas Tech.  I just don't see it.  For being the size and measurables he is, that guy should have been killing it in college.

3.  Peter Skoronski. OT, Northwestern.  I'm not guying that he can play LT with his T rex arms.  I'll believe it when I see it.  I wouldn't risk a top 10 pick to find out.

4. Darnell Wright OT, Tennessee.  This one is more situational than others..but he needs to be on a run heavy team IMO.  I'm not sold on his pass blocking as a LT in the NFL.

5. Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern.  Pains me to say it becasue he's a Kansas City kid, but dude was destined for 4th or 5th round until the combine.  Workout warrior.

6. Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon St.  Will join a long list of athletic TE who actually were never good at plaing TE but get drafted like they are.

7. Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota St.  Getting WAY too much hype.  Played small school that RUNS most of the time.  This is not an NFL caliber pass blocker.

 

Hopefully KC drafts all of them. 

[ExWNYer]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

9. Zay Flowers - he is too small. Too weak. Lacks length. He might be a serviceable slot and gimmick player somewhere for a few years. That's it.

 

Given New England's* track record of drafting WRs, this makes perfect sense:

 

 

[Mikie2times]

Anthony Richardson wasn't good against above average teams at Florida. How is he going to be good in the NFL?

[C.Biscuit97]

21 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

It seems to me that Allen was quite a bit different. He elevated a bad, low talent team into a winning one while Richardson is a .500 qb for a program that regularly pumps out NFL players. 

 

In the four years prior to Allen becoming the starter, they went 4-8, 5-7, 4-8, and 2-10 (the year immediately prior to him starting). With him as starter, they went 8-6 and 8-5. The talent on Wyoming is leagues worse than Florida's. Florida went 6-7 in both years that Richardson started. In the three years prior to Richardson starting, Florida went 10-3, 11-2, and 8-4. 

Lamar's team won when he was there. And largely because of him. Florida under Richardson? Not so much. They actually became much worse after he took over.

Fair points and I’m not pounding the table for Richardson but you know there are other factors. There was a coaching change. Thus, they lose recruits. Also, a lot harder to learn on the job in SEC than the MWC. Richardson is pretty young and raw. After Toney and Pitts left, these Florida teams haven’t had a ton of offensive talent. Florida has definitely been “rebuilding.”

 

I would normally hate thd Richardson prospect but after Allen and Hirts, if you get them in the right situation with the right coach, this could work. Like if Miami took him and let the season play out with Tua, they could be an interesting fit. But he could also be terrible as well. 

[T master]

I'll let you know next season it's way to early for me to think that far ahead ... GO BILLS !!! 

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

Anthony Richardson wasn't good against above average teams at Florida. How is he going to be good in the NFL?

That’s not 100% correct. He had 453 passing against Tennessee, 3 tds and almost 300 yards against Utah, and almost 300 total yards against Georgia. Also if you liked at Allen’s college game logs, he was pretty terrible against the top teams they played. 
 

I think Allen is a complete unicorn. But given how many of these “safe” dudes bust, you could be better off just hoping for the next unicorn.  
 

This dude is going to be boom or busy, nothing in between. 

[boyst]

i don't pay enough attention to anyone but i think that drew sanders kid will be a bust.

 

watched his highlights and they were terrible.

[C.Biscuit97]

22 minutes ago, ExWNYer said:

 

Given New England's* track record of drafting WRs, this makes perfect sense:

 

 

I like Flowers. Boston College never has a good offense and no other threats. Their qb is meh. Dude is a baller and has a great attitude. 

[ExWNYer]

24 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I like Flowers. Boston College never has a good offense and no other threats. Their qb is meh. Dude is a baller and has a great attitude. 

 

As with any prospect, time will tell. @GunnerBilllaid out for you why he thinks Flowers will be a bust.

[In Summary]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

9. Zay Flowers - he is too small. Too weak. Lacks length. He might be a serviceable slot and gimmick player somewhere for a few years. That's it.

Do you think the Bills like him?  

 

I don't have the prospect knowledge of you or others, but I generally wondered who was the biggest WR prospect capable of getting separation in the NFL?

[OldTimer1960]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

9. Zay Flowers - he is too small. Too weak. Lacks length. He might be a serviceable slot and gimmick player somewhere for a few years. That's it.

 

He is small.  Do you have the same concerns with Josh Downs and Tank Dell?  I am worried about their size as well.

[starrymessenger]

6 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

Disagree on CJ Stroud.

Quarterbacks are tough to evaluate, but he has shown the ability to make all the throws and has pretty good accuracy.  And I really like the situation he's likely going into with Carolina and Frank Reich.  I would take him before Bryce Young without question.

 

My biggest question with him, is that he's played with nothing but NFL-quality wide receivers.

With Carolina now first up I have to wonder whether Richardson and not Stroud is the target. Certainly Carolina would be a good landing spot for Richardson as far as his development is concerned.

[Yantha]

Bust predictions are fun....

 

1.  QB Will Levis (not even close to first round talent)

2. DT Kalijah Cancey (too small)

3.  DT Bryan Breese (too tall and lanky for DT)

4.  RT Dawand Jones (will be too slow at his size.  Will be nicknamed the human turnstile)

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

He is small.  Do you have the same concerns with Josh Downs and Tank Dell?  I am worried about their size as well.

 

They are both small. But at least they don't have alligator arms. And Downs (albeit lighter) just seems to get bumped less on film. 

 

They were all in the 4.4s too. That disappointed me for Tank especially. I still have Zay and Josh as late 2s. Tank needed to run faster to be a 2 for me. I have ended up with a 3 on him.

[Lost]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

9. Zay Flowers - he is too small. Too weak. Lacks length. He might be a serviceable slot and gimmick player somewhere for a few years. That's it.

 

 

 

Is why I'm terrified the Bills will target him rd 1

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

That’s not 100% correct. He had 453 passing against Tennessee, 3 tds and almost 300 yards against Utah, and almost 300 total yards against Georgia. Also if you liked at Allen’s college game logs, he was pretty terrible against the top teams they played. 
 

I think Allen is a complete unicorn. But given how many of these “safe” dudes bust, you could be better off just hoping for the next unicorn.  
 

This dude is going to be boom or busy, nothing in between. 

There is always an inbetween 

 

He’s going to have three or four solid seasons because he can run … Nobody is going to want to tackle him 

 

he will always struggle getting the ball out on time and precisely 

 

he’s a better runner and worse thrower than fields 

[MrEpsYtown]

I love Skornoski, but agree he is not a left tackle. If he went to play left tackle for a team with a great qb who gets it out quick, his PFF grade would be through the roof….  I think he is an all pro guard…and if he moved to center he would be the best center in the league…even better than Humprey. Gasp….

 

But he is polished, super smart, great athlete and body, bloodlines, and just 21 years old. He will make it. 

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are both small. But at least they don't have alligator arms. And Downs (albeit lighter) just seems to get bumped less on film. 

 

They were all in the 4.4s too. That disappointed me for Tank especially. I still have Zay and Josh as late 2s. Tank needed to run faster to be a 2 for me. I have ended up with a 3 on him.

Thanks.  What do you think of a later pick who is much bigger for a slot in Parker Washington?  He is interesting to me maybe late 3rd or maybe 4th?  He just looks like an athlete to me, though not as fast or quick, but can probably block at a pretty high level from the slot.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, OldTimer1960 said:

Thanks.  What do you think of a later pick who is much bigger for a slot in Parker Washington?  He is interesting to me maybe late 3rd or maybe 4th?  He just looks like an athlete to me, though not as fast or quick, but can probably block at a pretty high level from the slot.

 

3rd would be too early for my tastes. I have a 5th on him but late 4th I suppose from a value standpoint I'd not hate it. Where I would struggle is I don't know what he does better than Shakir other than block. And while I like receivers who can block I am not sure I like drafting them for their blocking if that makes sense?

[OldTimer1960]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

3rd would be too early for my tastes. I have a 5th on him but late 4th I suppose from a value standpoint I'd not hate it. Where I would struggle is I don't know what he does better than Shakir other than block. And while I like receivers who can block I am not sure I like drafting them for their blocking if that makes sense?

Excellent point, in the draft fervor, I forgot that any slot receiver would have to have a higher upside than Shakir/Harty.  For that reason, I don’t see WR as much option in round 1 unless Johnston is there and I’m not crazy about him.

[Mikie2times]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

That’s not 100% correct. He had 453 passing against Tennessee, 3 tds and almost 300 yards against Utah, and almost 300 total yards against Georgia. Also if you liked at Allen’s college game logs, he was pretty terrible against the top teams they played. 
 

I think Allen is a complete unicorn. But given how many of these “safe” dudes bust, you could be better off just hoping for the next unicorn.  
 

This dude is going to be boom or busy, nothing in between. 

I mean, he was the lowest rated passer in the entire conference with at least 200 attempts. Tennessee was one of the worst defenses in the SEC. He had over 40 attempts that game. Utah, he had 170 yards passing. Georgia was mop up duty as he got mopped up. Watching him, it was just a guy running around and playing outside of the playbook. Josh really is a unicorn when it comes to hit rate of this type of profile and he wasn't playing for the Florida Gators. I just don't get it. I understand how physically talented he is but that's all he is. Throw Levis in the same discussion. Kentucky was a power run team. Levis was a decent college QB, but that's all. How desperate has this become? I just don't think in past years these players would be slotted like this. 

[ProcessTruster]

i don't follow this draft stuff very closely, but the general feel in the media seems to be this is a relatively poor draft class in general . 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

i don't follow this draft stuff very closely, but the general feel in the media seems to be this is a relatively poor draft class in general . 

 

It is. I have some re-checks to do (and I have not done my deep dives on the QBs yet hence I have stayed a little out of the fray on those) but I counted up my grades the other day.... 12 1sts, 4 borderline 1st/2nds, 15 guys with mid to high 2nd round grades. Ironically that adds up to 31 which is the number of 1st round picks there are this year. And while it sort of evens out by round 4 and 5 there are fewer 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders on my board than in any of the previous 9 years I have been doing this.

[MJS]

17 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Whoever Beane picks

 

- Thad Brown, probably 

And half of TBD.

[Jauronimo]

20 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Dareus was a beast when he wanted to be.  Shame what happened to him. He could still be in the league if he wanted to be.

 

and Richardson was the type of qb prospect I hated in the first round. But after Allen, if he goes to the right team and situation, who knows now? 
 

and I hate Wil Levis. I think he sucks and he’s older too. Don’t get the hype. 

But isn’t that what people were saying about Allen? Shoot, I said that. 

The success of Josh Allen is going to inspire dozens of horrible draft picks and I love it.