MLB Jack Campbell #53 in the top 100 of The Athletic... is this our guy???

[B-Man]

38 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

LB isn't a big money position?

 

 It is in the middle  (no pun intended)

 

QB, LT, WR, and CB are usually more expensive.

 

.

[OldTimer1960]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm not right in front of my board so number rankings not sure... but Simpson is a 1st/2nd borderline grade and I have Sanders and Campbell as upper / mid 2nds.

You can see athleticism in every move Simpson makes, that’s for sure.   Do you think he could fit well in Bills’ scheme?

[TOboy]

21 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 It is in the middle  (no pun intended)

 

QB, LT, WR, and CB are usually more expensive.

 

.

DE is also an expensive position. Even DT’s get paid more on average than a LB. 

[Beck Water]

On 3/30/2023 at 7:11 AM, MrEpsYtown said:

Where did the athletic have Kaiir Elam ranked last year? Because there weren't many mocks in which Elam went in the first. 

 

I dunno about "many mocks", but Lance Zierlein on NFL.com graded him as a 1st round pick, as did Prisco and Trapasso:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/kaiir-elam/3200454c-4155-0002-a198-92eda6859fa9

https://dknation.draftkings.com/2022/4/28/23016692/kaiir-elam-nfl-draft-scouting-reports-fantasy-football-mock-draft-cornerback-bears-chiefs-texans

 

[MrEpsYtown]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

I dunno about "many mocks", but Lance Zierlein on NFL.com graded him as a 1st round pick, as did Prisco and Trapasso:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/kaiir-elam/3200454c-4155-0002-a198-92eda6859fa9

https://dknation.draftkings.com/2022/4/28/23016692/kaiir-elam-nfl-draft-scouting-reports-fantasy-football-mock-draft-cornerback-bears-chiefs-texans

 

I remember thinking about him as an early to mid two. I’m also curious to see where he was ranked early in the process before he “moved up boards.” I guess that was my original point in that post, that Campbell will start “moving up” as the draft gets closer. 

[Warriorspikes51]

I would rather trade up a handful of spots for Robinson than take a MLB at 27

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Here’s what I don’t understand with Campbell.

 

He’s a good athlete, good agility, great tackler, great instincts, good in coverage, elite leadership traits. 
 

What prevents him from being an unquestioned first round pick? 

[NewEra]

11 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Here’s what I don’t understand with Campbell.

 

He’s a good athlete, good agility, great tackler, great instincts, good in coverage, elite leadership traits. 
 

What prevents him from being an unquestioned first round pick? 

He’s going to get outran by every RB and TE 

[JaCrispy]

Anyone else starting to wonder if Campbell may only be a two-down LB?

 

On a podcast today I heard that Campbell was ranked around 86th for MLB in pass coverage…

 

This had me wondering if Campbell could be a liability on 3rd downs in the NFL…

[TOboy]

16 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Anyone else starting to wonder if Campbell may only be a two-down LB?

 

On a podcast today I heard that Campbell was ranked around 86th for MLB in pass coverage…

 

This had me wondering if Campbell could be a liability on 3rd downs in the NFL…

That’s the debate on him. I’ve seen highlights of him making some nice plays dropping back in zone, but he doesn’t seem as fluid as Sanders or Simpson. 
 

We’ve been spoiled by Edmunds and Milano (in coverage). I’m sure we could do a lot worse than Campbell. And if he’s not good enough for McD on passing downs, perhaps we use Rapp and Milano. 

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, TOboy said:

That’s the debate on him. I’ve seen highlights of him making some nice plays dropping back in zone, but he doesn’t seem as fluid as Sanders or Simpson. 
 

We’ve been spoiled by Edmunds and Milano (in coverage). I’m sure we could do a lot worse than Campbell. And if he’s not good enough for McD on passing downs, perhaps we use Rapp and Milano. 

Every down is a passing down 🤷🏻‍♂️ 

[Bookie Man]

I've been critical of Campbell as a prospect. But from what I've seen, zone coverage actually seems to be his strength. Didn't see much of him in man. But zone, he seemed very solid. Actually seemed like teams barely threw at him. 

[Sierra Foothills]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Home now checked board:

#16 Simpson

#27 Sanders

#30 Campbell

 

Lance Zierlein's solid (and free!!!) work on NFL.com has the order as:

 

Sanders 6.70

Simpson 6.24

Campbell 6.20

 

https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects/lb/all-colleges/all-statuses/2023?page=1

 

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

I dunno about "many mocks", but Lance Zierlein on NFL.com graded Elam as a 1st round pick, as did Prisco and Trapasso:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/kaiir-elam/3200454c-4155-0002-a198-92eda6859fa9

https://dknation.draftkings.com/2022/4/28/23016692/kaiir-elam-nfl-draft-scouting-reports-fantasy-football-mock-draft-cornerback-bears-chiefs-texans

 

 

1 hour ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Here’s what I don’t understand with Campbell.

 

He’s a good athlete, good agility, great tackler, great instincts, good in coverage, elite leadership traits. 
 

What prevents him from being an unquestioned first round pick? 

 

Have you watched the actual games... NOT the highlights?

 

38 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Anyone else starting to wonder if Campbell may only be a two-down LB?

 

On a podcast today I heard that Campbell was ranked around 86th for MLB in pass coverage…

 

This had me wondering if Campbell could be a liability on 3rd downs in the NFL…

 

I think he'll be fine against the pass but not elite. Campbell reminds me a lot of Jack Del Rio. Very similar size and athleticism.

 

Del Rio was 6'4" and 250 lbs with good mobility and instincts. He played collegiately at USC and was a very decorated college player (All-PAC 10 for 4 years) including being a consensus first team All-American. He was drafted in the 3rd round of the 1985 draft.

 

Del Rio played 11 years in the NFL and made the Pro Bowl in his 10th season... really good, solid NFL player.

Edited April 14, 2023 by Sierra Foothills

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

LB isn't a big money position?

 

Not comparatively, no.

6 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

You can see athleticism in every move Simpson makes, that’s for sure.   Do you think he could fit well in Bills’ scheme?

 

I think you might have some growing pains year 1... but I think he could long term.

[Cash]

23 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I get it, you didn't see it on tape.  You didn't expect good results from Campbell.  And when confronted with the good results you make excuses for them to discount the data point and keep your preconceived bias.   You didn't see twitch and assumed Campbell was slow, you didn't see change of direction and assumed Campbell had poor lateral movements.   Combine results show your conclusions were wrong.

 

Most of the field is training for the combine.  So yes, it is a diss when you imply that Campbell's numbers are somehow less meaningful.

 

Often times the RAS can be used as a negative.  It can be used as indicator that a prospect doesn't have the requisite physical attributes to succeed, such as speed or agility.  Clearly these limitations are not applicable to Campbell.  It doesn't matter if he trained, he can do it.  

 

I won't speak for GB or comment on whether a diss was served up or not, but I love this topic in general so I'll weigh in with my amateur take:

 

RAS is a metric I like a lot, because it's probably done the best so far at distilling "athlete" into 1 easily-comparable number.  Even then, it's far from perfect.  It's only comparable for guys who play the same position, and like every metric ever, there's error baked into it.  How much?  I have no idea.  But at a minimum, I feel confident that an 8.76 RAS guy isn't necessarily a better athlete than an 8.75 RAS guy.

 

Putting RAS aside for a second, one thing that's been reported consistently over the years is that some guys have more or better training for the combine drills, and they usually test better relative to their peers.  Which makes sense when you think about it - all of the drills have both an athleticism component and a skill component, and extra training can make a big difference on the skill side.  So it's plausible that some prospects might be able to pump up their RAS relative to the rest of the draft class.  Either by hiring better trainers, training in better facilities, or simply spending more time training.

 

Is that the case with Jack Campbell?  I dunno.  On his highlight reels, he looks like a good athlete for sure.  I'm not sure he's as explosive as one would think from his RAS, but my "tape grinding" has consisted of maybe 10 total minutes of highlights.  So I'm not exactly an expert scout over here.  I will say that I liked what I saw in the highlights, and I'll be on board if the Bills draft him.

[gobills404]

13 hours ago, NewEra said:

He’s going to get outran by every RB and TE 

If that’s true true then most LBs in the NFL must get outran by every RB and TE.

[Einstein's Dog]

27 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

I won't speak for GB or comment on whether a diss was served up or not, but I love this topic in general so I'll weigh in with my amateur take:

 

RAS is a metric I like a lot, because it's probably done the best so far at distilling "athlete" into 1 easily-comparable number.  Even then, it's far from perfect.  It's only comparable for guys who play the same position, and like every metric ever, there's error baked into it.  How much?  I have no idea.  But at a minimum, I feel confident that an 8.76 RAS guy isn't necessarily a better athlete than an 8.75 RAS guy.

 

Putting RAS aside for a second, one thing that's been reported consistently over the years is that some guys have more or better training for the combine drills, and they usually test better relative to their peers.  Which makes sense when you think about it - all of the drills have both an athleticism component and a skill component, and extra training can make a big difference on the skill side.  So it's plausible that some prospects might be able to pump up their RAS relative to the rest of the draft class.  Either by hiring better trainers, training in better facilities, or simply spending more time training.

 

Is that the case with Jack Campbell?  I dunno.  On his highlight reels, he looks like a good athlete for sure.  I'm not sure he's as explosive as one would think from his RAS, but my "tape grinding" has consisted of maybe 10 total minutes of highlights.  So I'm not exactly an expert scout over here.  I will say that I liked what I saw in the highlights, and I'll be on board if the Bills draft him.

Right, we are all saying RAS is one metric.  There are expectations you can get for a player from watching their tape.  In Campbell's case it looks like his RAS exceeded people's expectations.  So there are several ways you could reconcile the difference.   You could theorize Campbell improved his agility and quickness, or say the coaching and scheming didn't take advantage of all his attributes, or think maybe Campbell had been tentative, or you can put Campbell into the group who somehow had more and better RAS training (like he gamed the system).

 

When GB says "my guess is he did some serious combine training.....but I think that probably slightly overstates what kind of athlete you will get" we see how he is coming to terms with the unexpected difference.  He claims that he isn't discounting JC's results, but you be the judge.

 

Furthermore, as you mention, it's a relative score.  So the implication is that the mid-western, 4 yr, no-nonsense player from Iowa received more and better training than the likes of the transferring, showboating, me-first, SEC type players. 

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, gobills404 said:

If that’s true true then most LBs in the NFL must get outran by every RB and TE.

I disagree.  I think there are more starting Mikes that are faster than Campbell than not. His range is lacking imo. 
 

Going into the draft process, he was much closer to being a 3rd rd prospect than a 1st rd prospect. I still feel the same.   His high floor and lack of other prototype Mike option is what will get him drafted higher than he should.  

[Chaos]

[BigAl2526]

Hmmm #53 is just six spots ahead of Buffalo's second round pick.  #53 is 26 spots below Buffalo's first round pick.  To me, the approach to Jack Campbell is self-evident, and it does not involve picking him at #27

[John from Riverside]

On 4/13/2023 at 5:57 PM, Warriorspikes51 said:

I would rather trade up a handful of spots for Robinson than take a MLB at 27

Trading up for a running back is insane. I don’t care how good he is.
 

If he’s there at 27 and we take him fine

[LyndonvilleBill]

Interesting article about the LB class from last week. Seems in line with what many of us think.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nflmocks.com/2023/04/03/nfl-draft-campbell-linebacker-rankings/amp/

[BananaB]

11 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Trading up for a running back is insane. I don’t care how good he is.
 

If he’s there at 27 and we take him fine

Drafting a rb in the first would just be another wasted 2nd round. Aj, Boogie and Cook

[nosejob]

2 hours ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

Interesting article about the LB class from last week. Seems in line with what many of us think.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nflmocks.com/2023/04/03/nfl-draft-campbell-linebacker-rankings/amp/

Campbell is an above-average run stuffer, a borderline elite defender in coverage, and an underutilized pass rusher. His leadership ability is second-to-none, and he will be a force in the middle of the defense for the next 12-15 years. Campbell is an All-Pro MIKE. Stamp it.

NFL Draft Grade: Mid-to-Late Day 1      This is from the article.  I can't see a better, safer, more impactful player at 27....period.

[JaCrispy]

10 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Drafting a rb in the first would just be another wasted 2nd round. Aj, Boogie and Cook

In Beane I don’t trust…😉

 

(Very nervous about his next potential draft day blunder)

 

I pray to God he does not trade up for Campbell…

Edited April 16, 2023 by JaCrispy

[DJB]

 

[Bookie Man]

On 4/9/2023 at 10:06 PM, Sierra Foothills said:

I've often stated that NFL fans would be much better served by ignoring highlight packages and instead looking for condensed games or "player A vs team A" videos.

 

This is particularly true for non-skill position players. To watch a player over the course of 65-70 snaps during a game instead of watching that player's highlights will make a big difference in how well an observer understands a player.

 

That said, here are such videos devoted to Jack Campbell:

 

Vs. Kentucky:

 

 

 

Vs. Iowa State:

 

 

Vs. Michigan:

 

 

The added bonus is that you don't have to listen to lousy highlight soundtracks and redundant hype editing.

 

As for the player, I feel like Campbell has a chance to be a Leighton Vander Esch type of player.

Underwhelming. A very reactive player. Seems to get there a half step late. if LVE is his ceiling, hard pass at 27. 

[DJB]

 

[Simon Says]

On 3/30/2023 at 12:50 AM, Mark Vader said:

Agreed.

 

Trading down in general to get more picks would be a good move for the Bills this year.

 

I'd rather have more picks than signing a ton of UDFA's.

"More picks" seems like a sound strategy...but I don't care to add day 3 picks.  They just might get poached off the practice squad. 

If Bills trade out of the 1st,I hope it's for TWO, day 2 picks.

If a QB drops to 27...Bills could get a good offer.

[GunnerBill]

Honestly I don't care about having more picks in this draft. Give me 2024 picks. 

[KOKBILLS]

Listening to the Locked On NFL Scouting Pod today from a few days ago and I was a little surprised to hear that Kyle Crabbs absolutely loves Jack Campbell...Seemed to indicate that not only does he have a 1st Rd Grade on him, but that it was better than Top 20...

 

I still think Campbell will be the Bills first pick in this Draft. Not sure where exactly. I'd prefer to trade down and get picks. But if McBeane view him like Crabbs, no way they chance a trade down. 😎

[Warriorspikes51]

No. This team needs to put every resource into the offense. 

[CapeBreton]

Let’s say the Bills don’t draft a LB in round 1, what are the odds that one of Jack Campbell, Trenton Simpson, or Drew Sanders are there for the Bills second pick? 

[Shanahan's Horseshoe]

On 4/17/2023 at 3:49 PM, DJB said:

 

All that except production.   Sanders played in the toughest division in the best conference against some of the best offensive minds (Kiffen, Pirate, BOB) in football and filled up the stat sheet in his first year as a MLB.  
Campbell played in a division that plays the worst offensive football in the P5.  Teams like Wisky, NW, Minn and Nebraska all play schemes that you simply won’t see in the NFL and are antiquated.  Hell, Iowa is the very worst offense in college football and that’s what he practices against. Predictable personnel groupings, very little spread, terrible WRs and RBs who aren’t used in the passing game outside of dump offs. 
There’s very little difference in their RAS outside of their broad jump which doesn’t mean much at MLB anymore. 
If Beane picks Campbell it means he’s learned nothing from his past failed drafts. 

[KOKBILLS]

1 hour ago, CapeBreton said:

Let’s say the Bills don’t draft a LB in round 1, what are the odds that one of Jack Campbell, Trenton Simpson, or Drew Sanders are there for the Bills second pick? 

 

IMHO...Campbell and Sanders 0%...Simpson probably 15%... 😎

[2003Contenders]

12 hours ago, CapeBreton said:

Let’s say the Bills don’t draft a LB in round 1, what are the odds that one of Jack Campbell, Trenton Simpson, or Drew Sanders are there for the Bills second pick? 

 

I think there is a pretty good chance that all 3 will be gone before the Bills' #59 pick. That is why I suspect that if they opt to draft a non-LB in the first round, then they will move up a few spots in the 2nd to ensure that they get one of Campbell/Simpson/Sanders. Think back to how they did in 2007, when they drafted Lynch in the 1st and traded up for Poz in the 2nd.

 

Given the consensus on the low number of first round-graded players in this draft, I honestly do not think the Bills will be too worried about "value" at 27, since there is unlikely to be much in the way of value at that spot anyway. And while trading down may be nice in a situation like this, it takes two to tango AND there is something to be said for procuring that extra cost-controlled year (and option year) by staying put in the first round. Now, if they see one of the last of the 1st round graded players (regardless of position) still on the board in the 20s, I could see them trading up a few spots to get him.

 

I would say that with McD's inside Kuechly source and the obvious need at the position, assuming no genuine 1st round graded player drops to 27 (and barring a slight trade up), Campbell could be the go-to pick at 27.

 

 

[RichRiderBills]

On 4/16/2023 at 9:20 AM, nosejob said:

Campbell is an above-average run stuffer, a borderline elite defender in coverage, and an underutilized pass rusher. His leadership ability is second-to-none, and he will be a force in the middle of the defense for the next 12-15 years. Campbell is an All-Pro MIKE. Stamp it.

NFL Draft Grade: Mid-to-Late Day 1      This is from the article.  I can't see a better, safer, more impactful player at 27....period.

 

These are my thoughts as well.

 

Now his size characteristics make him likely even more valued by Buff. We love these tall big guys for MLB.

[dwight in philly]

1 hour ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

These are my thoughts as well.

 

Now his size characteristics make him likely even more valued by Buff. We love these tall big guys for MLB.

Could be a "Jack Lambert " type.. 

[MrEpsYtown]

Interesting article: 

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/jack-campbell-nfl-draft-2023-interview/

 

Two excerpts I find interesting...

 

JM: You recently connected with Luke Kuechly to work some position drills. That sounds like an amazing opportunity and partnership. He’s one of the greatest linebackers to ever play the game. What was that like?

Jack Campbell: Getting to spend a week with Luke Kuechly was amazing. We first connected at the Butkus Award ceremony. He came down to Irvine, California where I was training. We spent so much good time together.

I wanted to dive in on how he breaks down film. I wanted to know what a normal week looked like for Kuechly in the NFL. I also gained a ton of valuable information on what kind of specific position work he was doing. I basically wanted to learn about everything he did that allowed him to go out there and dominate on Sundays. 

He played the game at the highest level imaginable. Like you said, he’s one of the best middle linebackers of all time. Anything I could learn from him, I was just trying to be a sponge. He taught me about NFL defenses and how those systems are set up. It’s going to be a little bit different from the scheme I played in at Iowa. We dropped and played coverage a little differently than the NFL does.

It was such an amazing experience. I broke down so many different things with him. I definitely picked up tips and tricks that I’ll be using in the future. I’m implementing those things into my game.

 

JM: Have you completed any Top 30 visits, private workouts, or Zoom meetings?

Jack Campbell: I’ve had several teams reach out to me via Zoom. I’ve had a lot of good opportunities there. I completed a few Top 30 visits as well. Out of respect to them, I’m going to keep that information confidential. I’ve had a lot of fun getting to know all of these coaches. I’m experiencing different things and meeting new people. My childhood dream is coming true.

[MrEpsYtown]

 

Just to add, I have been saying that I believe that Jack Campbell has been on a number of visits but they have not been reported and there is a reason why. He is only true MLB in this draft. 

 

Now does that mean the Bills are trying to keep it quiet? Who knows. But he is clearly saying he is keeping it quiet and I think it's clear that those teams have directed him to do so.

 

Does that mean it's the Bills? I can't fathom why he wouldn't be someone they wanted. Who knows if they are one of those teams, but it is interesting.