ToGoGo Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 We just won the last 6 under intense adversity. Why not 5 more? 19 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Strive for Five! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 This throws it into sharp relief just how hard it is to win the big one. Let's assume the following win probabilities... Bengals: 60% Patriots: 85% Divisional round opponent: 75% Championship round opponent: 60% SB opponent: 50% Winning all five = 11.4% Of course there's also the path where we lose one of the regular season games and have to win 4 straight playoff games, probably only one at home, yielding roughly the same chances. So you add those together to get about a 20% chance. And I'm really not pessimistic about this! A bunch of the other playoff teams have like a 3-5% chance. It's just hard. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mynamemike Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Well ***** that’s all they have to do? Let’s do this thang! Merry Christmas to all. Hopefully the team gets home safe to spend time with the fam for the holiday. Stay safe out there everyone 🍻🦅🇺🇸❄️🎄 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tierlifer Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 7 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: Strive for Five! I like it!! Any other past Wegmans employees here remember this saying? Haha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobesBLO13 Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Math checks out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 That’s 11 in a row. I don’t like those odds. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Playoffs? Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: That’s 11 in a row. I don’t like those odds. Suppose if we beat Cincy… and KC loses to Denver… then I don’t THINK the Pats game means anything. AFC clinched for us. (Sorry if I’m mistaken here.) Play backups most of the game. Win or lose. Enjoy bye week to prep and get healthy. Win the next two games in Buffalo. Win Super Bowl. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EffKCChiefs Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Playoffs? said: Suppose if we beat Cincy… and KC loses to Denver… then I don’t THINK the Pats game means anything. AFC clinched for us. (Sorry if I’m mistaken here.) Play backups most of the game. Win or lose. Enjoy bye week to prep and get healthy. Win the next two games in Buffalo. Win Super Bowl. This would be a fantastic scenario 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motorin' Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: That’s 11 in a row. I don’t like those odds. Better tank the rest of the season for a higher draft pick! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 53 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: That’s 11 in a row. I don’t like those odds. Bengals are on a longer win streak.......they have won 7 straight. Also 8 of 9. Chiefs have been similarly hot since the loss to Buffalo they've only lost to Cinci. Bills have had a more recent poor stretch of games/multiple losses than the other contenders for the #1 seed. I don't believe "odds" matter much in this situation.........running off 11 straight wins in meaningful games at some point is not *that* unusual for a SB contender..............and Vegas still has Buffalo and Philly as the teams with the best chances to win the SB at 19%...........but even if odds mattered Buffalo is by no means "due" to lose to one of those teams that have been on longer hot streaks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 3 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said: This throws it into sharp relief just how hard it is to win the big one. Let's assume the following win probabilities... Bengals: 60% Patriots: 85% Divisional round opponent: 75% Championship round opponent: 60% SB opponent: 50% Winning all five = 11.4% Of course there's also the path where we lose one of the regular season games and have to win 4 straight playoff games, probably only one at home, yielding roughly the same chances. So you add those together to get about a 20% chance. And I'm really not pessimistic about this! A bunch of the other playoff teams have like a 3-5% chance. It's just hard. whelp, so much for that then. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said: whelp, so much for that then. Definitely not what I was saying! Just tough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said: Definitely not what I was saying! Just tough. I know. it was tough 4 times in a row. too bad they didn't at least get one. imagine, 4 straight and no lombardi. so you know just getting there, is tough. one thing though, this team has shown a lot of toughness and resiliency. I'm thinking they have a better shot to win then the team that went 4 straight. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Sack Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 To the OP: our odds are dramatically different depending on the results of our next two games. Win, and there’s a very clear path. Lose and play 3 playoff games, likely 2 at Cincy and KC. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToGoGo Posted December 25, 2022 Author Share Posted December 25, 2022 42 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said: To the OP: our odds are dramatically different depending on the results of our next two games. Win, and there’s a very clear path. Lose and play 3 playoff games, likely 2 at Cincy and KC. Agree. But I'm technically correct. 5 straight and we're planning the parade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMAKCruiser Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 5 hours ago, Tierlifer said: I like it!! Any other past Wegmans employees here remember this saying? Haha Not a Wegman's employee, but I remember the ads. Wasn't it a promo from Wegmans to get us to eat 5 servings of vegetables a day? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChronicAndKnuckles Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 (edited) Realistically they could lose their next 3 and still win the Super Bowl, but I get your point Edit:2 Edited December 25, 2022 by ChronicAndKnuckles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Airseven Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Factually accurate!👍🏼 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMAKCruiser Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said: Realistically they could lose their next 3 and still win the Super Bowl, but I get your point If they lose their next 3, they would be out of the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChronicAndKnuckles Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Just now, SMAKCruiser said: If they lose their next 3, they would be out of the playoffs. 2 my bad 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockpile Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Winning the Lombardi Trophy is the only game that matters. I admit it would be nice to do it five in a row! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsatlastin2018 Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Dunno about the rest of you, but I’m on to Cincinnati! No… really! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SydneyBillsFan Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 Win the next one against Cinci and I believe that we are half way there. Cannot see anyone beating us at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xwnyer Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 The game in Cincy is HUGE a win and likely top seed lose and you have to go thru cincy and KC to the big dance. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 20 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: Strive for Five! I approve your message. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tierlifer Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 15 hours ago, SMAKCruiser said: Not a Wegman's employee, but I remember the ads. Wasn't it a promo from Wegmans to get us to eat 5 servings of vegetables a day? Yes. My memory is not what it used to be. You’re right it was a bit of an ad campaign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YattaOkasan Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 23 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: That’s 11 in a row. I don’t like those odds. Not really how that works. It’s like offering someone the odds and payout of an 11 game win streak after they have already one the first 6. You’re getting great odds for a 5 game win streak and you should take it all the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 15 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said: Not really how that works. It’s like offering someone the odds and payout of an 11 game win streak after they have already one the first 6. You’re getting great odds for a 5 game win streak and you should take it all the time. It’ll be the longest win streak to end the season since the 2003 Patriots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YattaOkasan Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: It’ll be the longest win streak to end the season since the 2003 Patriots. Sure but the odds are no different considering our starting point from a pure numbers point. Clearly the starting point matters being down von and other factors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 (edited) Next 5 games: Week 18: NE @ BUF (we win) WC Round: NE/MIA/PIT/JAX @ BUF DIV Round: CIN, JAX/TEN or LAC @ BUF AFCCG: BUF v KC @ Neutral Site, or JAX/TEN, LAC or BAL @ BUF SB LVII: BUF v NFC winner in Glendale, AZ Edited January 8, 2023 by strive_for_five_guy More specific AFC opponents Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 On 12/25/2022 at 12:54 AM, ToGoGo said: We just won the last 6 under intense adversity. Why not 5 more? probably not facing Miami, Detroit, Jets or Bears in the playoffs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 What rhymes with four? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastport bills Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 This year’s success in the playoffs will in large part be determined by the performance of our secondary. White, Jackson, Elam and Benford will be responsible in coverage vs the Bengals big three and the Chiefs collection of talented and speedy wideouts. Throw in Hill and Waddle, who gave us fits last time, and we will be challenged. Johnson will be great, as usual but our safety opposite Poyer, Neal will have to come up big against the run as well as coverage.I know Josh will find a way no matter what , but our defense will have to step up against the best offenses in football. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Probability of not having to play KC in Arrowhead. 100% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Why not 6? I really want that 1st preseason game... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 25 minutes ago, Eastport bills said: This year’s success in the playoffs will in large part be determined by the performance of our secondary. White, Jackson, Elam and Benford will be responsible in coverage vs the Bengals big three and the Chiefs collection of talented and speedy wideouts. Throw in Hill and Waddle, who gave us fits last time, and we will be challenged. Johnson will be great, as usual but our safety opposite Poyer, Neal will have to come up big against the run as well as coverage.I know Josh will find a way no matter what , but our defense will have to step up against the best offenses in football. I agree...the DB's will have to step up bigtime with Von out. I think our pass rush will be ok but not as effective without VM.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastport bills Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said: I agree...the DB's will have to step up bigtime with Von out. I think our pass rush will be ok but not as effective without VM.... What a big, frustrating loss VM is. Just when we’re poised to do something special. Now we have to outscore these high powered offenses. The problem is, both Mahomes and Burrow have been good against the blitz, so our edge guys have to provide pressure. They have been good this season, but this is money time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breakout Squad Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said: Probability of not having to play KC in Arrowhead. 100% Not looking forward to playing KC again. I’m really hoping they get upset but at least a neutral site if we make it is a nice consolation prize. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Red King Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 hour ago, HOUSE said: Why not 6? I really want that 1st preseason game... I mean playoff and Super Bowl wins, sure. But the 1st preseason game? Now you're asking for a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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