If Allen stays healthy, will Bills win 11 in a row?

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

This team does not seem likely to lay an egg. Not with the "Don't Blink" mentality and new killer instinct.

 

The Miami game is going to be seen more and more for the fluke that it was -- crazy events converging.

 

After KC, the Bills will be heavy favorites in every game. If Allen stays healthy, when do they lose? Are we about to watch an 11-game winning streak (13 if we beat KC)?

 

15-2 or 16-1 is just sitting there for this team.

 

vs. Packers (SNF after the bye)

@ Jets

vs. Vikings

vs. Browns

@ Lions (Thanksgiving)

@ Patriots (TNF)

vs. Jets

vs. Dolphins

@ Bears

@ Bengals (MNF) -- maybe the toughest game, but I think it's a great matchup and we have primetime Josh

vs. Patriots -- Josh could rest if #1 seed locked up

 

If ANY of these games were this week, everyone would be picking the Bills. That's not likely to change as long as Allen stays healthy.

[bmur66]

I vote to delete this thread

[Billsatlastin2018]

I’ve thought about this before the Season began. The real goal of the first 7 games is to be 5-2. Having lost that heat stroke Dolphins game, still probable, Of course, ideally winning next week is a bit more important.

 

If so, it is possible to run the table, barring you know what. Packers and Vikings at Home will be the biggest priorities. After those, it’s AFC-E & NFC-N trash and Cinci.

 

Roll! 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

9 minutes ago, bmur66 said:

I vote to delete this thread

Jinxes aren't real

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

This roster is capable of winning every remaining game by double digits.  Will they?  Who knows?  Next week will be difficult.  We have five division games where we know the opponent will be extra motivated to take us down.  It’s also the NFL where there’s usually a few “How did ______ beat ______?” games.  I’m just going to enjoy the ride.

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

This team does not seem likely to lay an egg. Not with the "Don't Blink" mentality and new killer instinct.

 

The Miami game is going to be seen more and more for the fluke that it was -- crazy events converging.

 

After KC, the Bills will be heavy favorites in every game. If Allen stays healthy, when do they lose? Are we about to watch an 11-game winning streak (13 if we beat KC)?

 

15-2 or 16-1 is just sitting there for this team.

 

vs. Packers (SNF after the bye)

@ Jets

vs. Vikings

vs. Browns

@ Lions (Thanksgiving)

@ Patriots (TNF)

vs. Jets

vs. Dolphins

@ Bears

@ Bengals (MNF) -- maybe the toughest game, but I think it's a great matchup and we have primetime Josh

vs. Patriots -- Josh could rest if #1 seed locked up

 

If ANY of these games were this week, everyone would be picking the Bills. That's not likely to change as long as Allen stays healthy.

Even if you give them a 90% chance to win each of those games (which is likely aggressive), then there’s only a 31% chance that they don’t lose any of them.  Drop the 90% to 85%, then the chance of winning 11 in a row is 17%.

 

After the Bills trounced the Titans, would you have thought they’d go into Miami and lay an egg?  They almost lost the next week again at the Ravens!  Yes, they can be dominant, but there’s many games on the remaining schedule that they can also lose.

[Brennan Huff]

[Big Turk]

It's possible. They will be big favorites for pretty much all those games

[Chaos]

25 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Even if you give them a 90% chance to win each of those games (which is likely aggressive), then there’s only a 31% chance that they don’t lose any of them.  Drop the 90% to 85%, then the chance of winning 11 in a row is 17%.

 

After the Bills trounced the Titans, would you have thought they’d go into Miami and lay an egg?  They almost lost the next week again at the Ravens!  Yes, they can be dominant, but there’s many games on the remaining schedule that they can also lose.

This is the correct way to look at it. On the other hand 17% is not the craziest thing to happen. 

[BearNorth]

I follow Ken Massey, his ratings are starting to be accurate by this time of the season. 

 

He gives us a 58% win chance at KC although that could move after tonight. 

 

He has the GB [79%] @ Patsies [74%] @Bungles [71%] games below 80% win chance. 

 

All others are above 80%.

 

We have three of his top 10 in the next 4 games, @KC [3] GB [9] & Minny [6]. 

 

Fwiw

[Big Turk]

Honestly, there is nothing this team cannot do. If someone told me they would not lose again this season including the playoffs, I would shrug my shoulders and say OK. I mean it's believable. Is there a single game on the schedule you would say the Bills shouldn't win? Maybe KC? Maybe if the D is still compromised in the secondary? 

 

If we have Poyer and Edmunds back I think they will be fine tho...

[HOUSE]

I just hope we win another game 

[Rigotz]

Maybe it’s just me, but all I want to think about is winning this week vs KC.

 

Its the biggest game of the regular season.

 

Trap games happen, injuries happen, bad teams beat good teams. Think about the Jags last year… or the Colts beating KC this year. One game at a time.

Edited October 10, 2022 by Rigotz

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

39 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Even if you give them a 90% chance to win each of those games (which is likely aggressive), then there’s only a 31% chance that they don’t lose any of them.  Drop the 90% to 85%, then the chance of winning 11 in a row is 17%.

 

After the Bills trounced the Titans, would you have thought they’d go into Miami and lay an egg?  They almost lost the next week again at the Ravens!  Yes, they can be dominant, but there’s many games on the remaining schedule that they can also lose.

Yes, I picked them to lose at Miami

[Matt_In_NH]

14 if we beat KC, get it right.  I assume the OP is an NFL virgin.

[Freddie's Dead]

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Yes, I picked them to lose at Miami

Okay, and did you pick them to almost lose to Baltimore?  Or to lose to Jacksonville last year?  Yes, they could win every game that remains on their schedule.  Even with as good as they can be, the odds show it is more unlikely than likely, though.

 

With that said, let’s win this weekend and it should be a fun ride!

[damj]

No. The team on the other side of the field also gets paid.

 

On any given week, you can get beat.

[RiotAct]

vs Packers is easily the toughest game on our sked after the bye.  The Bengals are subpar.  

 

14-3 all the way.

[Yobogoya!]

3 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

vs Packers is easily the toughest game on our sked after the bye.  The Bengals are subpar.  

 

14-3 all the way.

 

Vikings might actually be tougher than Packers this year. JJ is an X factor weapon that the Pack doesn't seem to have right now, regardless of how good Rodgers is. 

 

Might end up being a tougher out than the Bengals, too. 

[extrahammer]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Honestly, there is nothing this team cannot do. If someone told me they would not lose again this season including the playoffs, I would shrug my shoulders and say OK. I mean it's believable. Is there a single game on the schedule you would say the Bills shouldn't win? Maybe KC? Maybe if the D is still compromised in the secondary? 

 

If we have Poyer and Edmunds back I think they will be fine tho...

 

It's amusing how fickle some fans are and how disappointed they always get when they're reminded this is the NFL. We just whooped a team that ranked 29th in defense. Allen is still our leading rusher, we still face several good teams after the bye week, and injuries won't just magically stop. Let's not put the cart before the horse, context matters. 

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

 

If ANY of these games were this week, everyone would be picking the Bills. That's not likely to change as long as Allen stays healthy.

 

 

If any of these games were this week, everyone would be picking the Bills, yes.

 

Equally, though, if you find a bet for the Bills going 11-1 the rest of the way, you'll get excellent odds. And very very likely lose. Teams have bad games. Opponents have good games. Players have injuries and get sick. Balls bounce strange. Receivers slap good passes up in the air to be interceptions. Fantastic QBs bounce short game-winning passes to short quick funny WRs in Miami. Fantastic QBs slip running game-winning quarterback sneaks. Stuff happens.

 

Certainly not impossible. But yeah, quite unlikely. Which ain't rocket science. Just look into the odds if you want to make that bet.

 

But who cares? That's not the question. The question is can they win enough games to be the #1 seed in the AFC. IMO the odds are higher for that and it's way more important.

 

 

Edited October 10, 2022 by Thurman#1

[GolfandBills]

Certainly all very winnable but i expect a hiccup or 2 in there.  If Allen stays healthy and we need to win the game in week 17 I think 14-3 at the absolute worst.  

[Big Turk]

18 minutes ago, extrahammer said:

 

It's amusing how fickle some fans are and how disappointed they always get when they're reminded this is the NFL. We just whooped a team that ranked 29th in defense. Allen is still our leading rusher, we still face several good teams after the bye week, and injuries won't just magically stop. Let's not put the cart before the horse, context matters. 

 

It is, but the Bills are also THAT good. People don't seem to understand that enough.  This is a historically good team. Like all-time type of good.   It doesn't have to be one or the other.

Edited October 10, 2022 by Big Turk

[Greg S]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

I just hope we win another game 

 

Nope 4-13. Guaranteed

[RiotAct]

1 hour ago, Yobogoya! said:

 

Vikings might actually be tougher than Packers this year. JJ is an X factor weapon that the Pack doesn't seem to have right now, regardless of how good Rodgers is. 

 

Might end up being a tougher out than the Bengals, too. 

Good point - that will be a close game probably.  We should have White back for that one which will help immensely.  Plus, I bet Diggs goes off against his former team.

[Logic]

I don't think they win 11 in a row, but I think they go on an 8 or 9 game winning streak and ultimately wind up 13-4.

Whether or not 13-4 is good enough for the one seed may depend upon whether or not the Bills beat the Chiefs next Sunday.

[May Day 10]

they can lose any game.  I have faith in the coaching and athletes that they will be fully prepared more often than not.  Winning 10+ game is a row in the NFL is really hard.  The Bills can definitely do it.  Especially since so many wins are blowouts and eliminates the factors like bad luck, bad call, etc.  

[extrahammer]

45 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

It is, but the Bills are also THAT good. People don't seem to understand that enough.  This is a historically good team. Like all-time type of good.   It doesn't have to be one or the other.

 

The Steelers also might be the worst team in the NFL this year, so I'd pump the brakes. 

[Tanoros]

3 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Even if you give them a 90% chance to win each of those games (which is likely aggressive), then there’s only a 31% chance that they don’t lose any of them.  Drop the 90% to 85%, then the chance of winning 11 in a row is 17%.

 

After the Bills trounced the Titans, would you have thought they’d go into Miami and lay an egg?  They almost lost the next week again at the Ravens!  Yes, they can be dominant, but there’s many games on the remaining schedule that they can also lose.

I don’t consider the Miami loss as laying an egg. Laying an egg is how we lost to JAX last year. The Miami loss is as good of a loss as can be possible. If not for the heat exhaustion, Josh hits McKenzie for a td and we win. 

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, extrahammer said:

 

The Steelers also might be the worst team in the NFL this year, so I'd pump the brakes. 

 

They also played their other games relatively close.  Not this game.  They got stomped into submission. 

 

 

[nedboy7]

Funny thing is if we lose next week we will see "Will the poorly coached Bills win another game this year" threads. 

 

Edited October 10, 2022 by nedboy7

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Tanoros said:

I don’t consider the Miami loss as laying an egg. Laying an egg is how we lost to JAX last year. The Miami loss is as good of a loss as can be possible. If not for the heat exhaustion, Josh hits McKenzie for a td and we win. 

 

Agree...at one point they had 12 starters out and had 4 backup OLinemen in, 2 playing out of position, and their 3 WR set featured backup TE Quinton Morris, FB Reggie Gilliam and rookie RB James Cook.  And Allen was STILL moving the ball at will.  They outgained the Dolphins by almost 300 yards.  How is that laying an egg?

[njbuff]

We’re on to Kansas City.

[hemma]

Crazy weather can be a nasty equalizer.

[extrahammer]

11 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

They also played their other games relatively close.  Not this game.  They got stomped into submission. 

 

 

 

Yeah and none of their receivers have scored a TD this season, so what's your point, again context matters. 

[Bruffalo]

As good as the team is, probably not.  Winning football games is hard, even though this team often times makes it look easy.

 

Would be cool though.  

[What a Tuel]

1 hour ago, extrahammer said:

 

It's amusing how fickle some fans are and how disappointed they always get when they're reminded this is the NFL. We just whooped a team that ranked 29th in defense. Allen is still our leading rusher, we still face several good teams after the bye week, and injuries won't just magically stop. Let's not put the cart before the horse, context matters. 

 

We've scored more points than anyone (depending on what the chiefs do tonight)

 

We've allowed less points than anyone except the niners.

 

The team is good and it is ok to believe it is good without throwing out explanations why we aren't sure they are good yet (like the steelers are 29th ranked defense).

Edited October 10, 2022 by What a Tuel

[extrahammer]

3 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

We've scored more points than anyone (depending on what the chiefs do tonight)

 

We've allowed less points than anyone except the niners.

 

The team is good and it is ok to believe it is good without throwing out explanations why we aren't sure they are good yet (like the steelers are 29th ranked defense).

 

You sound sad that I pointed out we beat a team with a 29th ranked defense without their best defensive player? It sounds like you are sad. Don't be sad.  

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, extrahammer said:

 

Yeah and none of their receivers have scored a TD this season, so what's your point, again context matters. 

 

We are 2nd in the NFL in points scored and 1st in the NFL(tied) for least points allowed. Once again leading the NFL in net points by a large margin, almost double the next closest team.

 

#1 in yards on offense by a large margin, #2 on yards on defense(thanks to soft coverage)

 

Context over the course of the season compared to every other team in the NFL matters too.

Edited October 10, 2022 by Big Turk