If trap games existed, these three would be them according to BillsWire

[Big Turk]

But we all know trap games don't exist right?

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/lists/3-trap-games-buffalo-bills-2022-nfl-season/

 

TLDR: 

Week 3 Fins 

Week 5 Steelers 

Week 16 Bears

 

 

Edited May 22, 2022 by Big Turk

[Don Otreply]

Imo, trap games exist more for fans, not so much for the teams/players, it’s a cliché thing mostly, something for TV talk show guys and gals to pontificate on, kinda like the “looking past” a team saying, just saying…, 👍

[Buffalo Junction]

6 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Imo, trap games exist more for fans, not so much for the teams/players, it’s a cliché thing mostly, something for TV talk show guys and gals to pontificate on, kinda like the “looking past” a team saying, just saying…, 👍

After Jacksonville I’ll put a bit of weight on the trap game concept. 

[billybrew1]

46 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

But we all know trap games don't exist right?

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/lists/3-trap-games-buffalo-bills-2022-nfl-season/

 

TLDR: 

Week 3 Fins 

Week 5 Steelers 

Week 16 Bears

 

 

Squish the Fish Week is NEVER a trap game. The f***ing stealers beat us last year and might be best us again, it’s not a trap game….

Maybe, “da bears,”  is a trap game.

[Don Otreply]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Junction said:

After Jacksonville I’ll put a bit of weight on the trap game concept. 

Sometimes good teams play like poop, and get beat by not so good teams, it happens, any given Sunday as is said. 

[Buffalo Junction]

3 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Sometimes good teams play like poop, and get beat by not so good teams, it happens, any given Sunday as is said. 

Being held to only two field goals and ***** out in the second half is a bit beyond just playing like 💩. IIRC a few Jaguars players commented of the Bills being listless and not engaged. 

[eball]

21 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

After Jacksonville I’ll put a bit of weight on the trap game concept. 

Nope. See below. 

 

17 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Sometimes good teams play like poop, and get beat by not so good teams, it happens, any given Sunday as is said. 

Exactly. The point isn’t that good teams never lose to bad teams…it’s that the W-L percentage in those games is historically consistent regardless of who the good team played the week before or the week after. Really simple concept. 

 

Edited May 22, 2022 by eball

[Doc Brown]

Traveling to Miami on a short week in September is not ideal.  We may only win by 20.

[Don Otreply]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Being held to only two field goals and ***** out in the second half is a bit beyond just playing like 💩. IIRC a few Jaguars players commented of the Bills being listless and not engaged. 

I’d call that playing like poop,

[Big Turk]

36 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

After Jacksonville I’ll put a bit of weight on the trap game concept. 

 

Bad teams always have about a 20% chance to win a given game versus good teams...when it happens it's not a trap game, simply the law of averages.

17 minutes ago, eball said:

Nope. See below. 

 

Exactly. The point isn’t that good teams never lose to bad teams…it’s that the W-L percentage in those games is historically consistent regardless of who the good team played the week before or the week after. Really simple concept. 

 

 

Yup...in fact a lengthy study done showed the good teams win "trap games" versus bad teams at a slightly higher rate than they win non trap games against bad teams.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I think it is in the eye of the beholder. If you play like crap and beat yourself then it is a trap game.  If you play well but the underdog wins well that is just playing the games.  

 

As for this season, I think it will be Bills at Jets Nov 6.  Buffalo will be beyond the first 6 game gauntlet and coming off a home win over the Packers.  Jets are an improved roster.  Jets 27 Bills 17

[LabattBlue]

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

Sometimes good teams play like poop, and get beat by not so good teams, it happens, any given Sunday as is said. 

…and playing like poop against cellar dwellers can cost you the #1 seed and home field advantage. 

[Don Otreply]

9 minutes ago, BTB said:

…and playing like poop against cellar dwellers can cost you the #1 seed and home field advantage. 

Evidently,

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Junction said:

After Jacksonville I’ll put a bit of weight on the trap game concept. 

 

Statistically it shows the "trap game" is more a myth, more like something fans or the media say to make sense why a favored team loses to an underdog.  Yet, underdogs win every week.  Its why historically, there have only been 5 teams in NFL history go winless.    And when you think about all the teams that had say 1, 2 or 3 wins...well odds are when they won those games they beat teams better than them given a team with 1-3 wins is either the worst team that year or among the worst.  

 

[Rc2catch]

I can accept McDermott’s Bills over the years  have played down to their competition on more than a few occasions, and I have always supported this regime… 

With that said if we lose to the Bears in week 16 I might have to start questioning this staff a little more 😂

Even if we somehow have the #1 seed locked up at that point and play our backups, even if it’s 80 mph winds and 3 feet of snow, we better beat this years version of the Bears. 

[ganesh]

5 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Imo, trap games exist more for fans, not so much for the teams/players, it’s a cliché thing mostly, something for TV talk show guys and gals to pontificate on, kinda like the “looking past” a team saying, just saying…, 👍

All games where our opponent plays physical against our finesse offense and dfense - will always be TRAP games.  Last year Steelers, Titans, Colts, NE and Jacksonville - all physically hit us everywhere and we couldn't recover.

[Don Otreply]

3 minutes ago, ganesh said:

All games where our opponent plays physical against our finesse offense and dfense - will always be TRAP games.  Last year Steelers, Titans, Colts, NE and Jacksonville - all physically hit us everywhere and we couldn't recover.

That doesn’t make it a “trap game” it makes it an out hustled and out coached game.

[billsbackto81]

I know coaches will always say their team never overlooks anyone. It's hard to win in the NFL, right?

 

There's no doubt in my mind they thought they can just sleep walk into Jacksonville and leave with a W. 

 

When they realized the Jags came to play it was too late. 

[Big Turk]

25 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

I know coaches will always say their team never overlooks anyone. It's hard to win in the NFL, right?

 

There's no doubt in my mind they thought they can just sleep walk into Jacksonville and leave with a W. 

 

When they realized the Jags came to play it was too late. 

 

That doesn't make it a trap game tho...that just means they weren't prepared.

[chongli]

5 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

 

As for this season, I think it will be Bills at Jets Nov 6.  Buffalo will be beyond the first 6 game gauntlet and coming off a home win over the Packers.  Jets are an improved roster.  Jets 27 Bills 17

 

You make a good point, but...no! Jets still gonna Jet, at least this year.

[BillsShredder83]

6 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Traveling to Miami on a short week in September is not ideal.  We may only win by 20.

They did this to us last year too. I hate it

[Big Turk]

26 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

They did this to us last year too. I hate it

 

We literally have one of the most favorable schedules in the NFL in terms of our net rest days versus opponents net rest days and don't play any opponents coming off a bye week.

 

Pretty sure those far outweigh this one instance

[without a drought]

Nice try, but the Bills enjoy beating up on the Dolphins, they are not losing to the Steelers two years in a row and the Bears, really.

[GunnerBill]

Trap games do exist. The fact that the numbers suggest good teams don't lose trap games very often doesn't mean they don't exist. The definition is simply a game capable of being overlooked.

 

Essentially a trap game is a game against a perceived weaker opposition between two games that are perceived as more significant / against better teams. When I look at this schedule only really the Steelers at home between the Ravens and the Chiefs might count as that. And even then this is still the Pittsburgh Steelers, right? With all that history and no losing seasons since Bush Jnr's 1st term.... I am not sure they are a classic trap game. If the game that week was Detroit or the Jets or the Bears then I'd say classic trap game. 

[wjag]

17 hours ago, Big Turk said:

But we all know trap games don't exist right?

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/lists/3-trap-games-buffalo-bills-2022-nfl-season/

 

TLDR: 

Week 3 Fins 

Week 5 Steelers 

Week 16 Bears

 

 

 

Clearly its the Rams and Chiefs

[Greg S]

15 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I think it is in the eye of the beholder. If you play like crap and beat yourself then it is a trap game.  If you play well but the underdog wins well that is just playing the games.  

 

As for this season, I think it will be Bills at Jets Nov 6.  Buffalo will be beyond the first 6 game gauntlet and coming off a home win over the Packers.  Jets are an improved roster.  Jets 27 Bills 17

 

I don't think any divisional game can be called a trap game. Sure the Bills might lose but they know the importance of winning the division and these games are the most important followed by conference games. 

[Orlando Tim]

17 hours ago, Big Turk said:

But we all know trap games don't exist right?

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/lists/3-trap-games-buffalo-bills-2022-nfl-season/

 

TLDR: 

Week 3 Fins 

Week 5 Steelers 

Week 16 Bears

 

 

At a pro level I don't think there are trap games since the guy you are against is a pro also. At lower levels, especially high school, the trap game is real because you don't plan properly for a bad team who happens to play up for a half. 

[Bookie Man]

The offensive game plan for the jags game was atrocious. We go in with a banged up offensive line. The best unit on all of Jacksonville is probably their DL.  What does Daboll decide to do? Give Singletary/Moss 11 carries combined and proceed to throw the ball 50 times. Josh Allen was under extreme pressure all day and Daboll never adjusted. It was infuriating to watch. I have a feeling KD would have called a better game. Gauging from FA signings and the draft, it seems we might be adding a dynamic rushing attack w/ more 2 TE packages to the arsenal. These sets will come in handy in games like the jags game. Hopefully we can impose our will when we should be able to. 

[Stank_Nasty]

I’ll be honest. At this point, I’ll be surprised if we just keep going down into Miami and beating a solid division opponent. Odds say it’s just not gonna keep happening. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they finally got us this year… and then brace for the narratives and headlines that follow until we see them again and blast them 

[WhoTom]

12 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

That doesn't make it a trap game tho...that just means they weren't prepared.

 

They were unprepared for an inferior opponent, thinking that it would be an easy win. That's pretty much the definition of a trap game.

 

 

[WhoTom]

18 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Bad teams always have about a 20% chance to win a given game versus good teams...when it happens it's not a trap game, simply the law of averages.

 

The so-called "law of averages" is a fallacy.

 

https://www.coursehero.com/study-guides/boundless-statistics/the-law-of-averages/

https://study.com/academy/lesson/law-of-averages-definition-formula.html

 

 

[Greg S]

I know the schedule is tough early in the year but if the Bills play the way they are capable of then 11-6 to 13-4 is the floor/ceiling for this team. Assuming injuries don't play a factor.

[flaz]

It better not be weeks 3 and 5. I have tickets to both games!

 

[RyanC883]

20 hours ago, billybrew1 said:

Squish the Fish Week is NEVER a trap game. The f***ing stealers beat us last year and might be best us again, it’s not a trap game….

Maybe, “da bears,”  is a trap game.

 

the Steelers SHOULD NOT beat us.  We have a much better roster at nearly every position except RB and OLB/DE (give slight edge to Watt over Von Miller, perhaps it's a push).  Why they generally beat us is bizarre.  And I live in PGH and am quite sick of it!!!!

[Big Turk]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Trap games do exist. The fact that the numbers suggest good teams don't lose trap games very often doesn't mean they don't exist. The definition is simply a game capable of being overlooked.

 

Essentially a trap game is a game against a perceived weaker opposition between two games that are perceived as more significant / against better teams. When I look at this schedule only really the Steelers at home between the Ravens and the Chiefs might count as that. And even then this is still the Pittsburgh Steelers, right? With all that history and no losing seasons since Bush Jnr's 1st term.... I am not sure they are a classic trap game. If the game that week was Detroit or the Jets or the Bears then I'd say classic trap game. 

 

Except studies going back many years looking at exactly these type of situations show NO such phenomena occurring.  In fact, teams had a slightly better record in these so called "trap games" than they did in similar "non-trap games".

 

If this was an actual thing, it would be borne out over a lengthy period of time in actual statistics showing there was a greater chance of losing these type of games.  There is no such correlation to note. In fact, the opposite.

Edited May 23, 2022 by Big Turk

[ChasBB]

20 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

After Jacksonville I’ll put a bit of weight on the trap game concept. 

I would add that the Jacksonville game should be used by coaches and team leaders for years to come as motivation to perform in EVERY SINGLE GAME.  That loss cost us home field advantage in the divisional playoff round vs. KC and probably the Lombardi Trophy.  And a side note to McD ... when the day isn't going your way, take the effing 3 points when you can.  Appreciate the bravado in going for TDs, but we lost 9-6 and had several opportunities for 3 points and came away with nothing.

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Except studies going back many years looking at exactly these type of situations show NO such phenomena occurring.  In fact, teams had a slightly better record in these so called "trap games" than they did in similar "non-trap games".

 

If this was an actual thing, it would be borne out over a lengthy period of time in actual statistics showing there was a greater chance of losing these type of games.  There is no such correlation to note. In fact, the opposite.

 

You misunderstand my point. Teams don't need to lose trap games for there to be trap games. The meaning of trap game is just a game you could overlook between two more significant games. That is it. It doesn't mean teams DO overlook them. The evidence suggests they don't. But that doesn't mean trap games as a concept are not a thing. It is just a term to define a perceived less important game between two perceived important games. 

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You misunderstand my point. Teams don't need to lose trap games for there to be trap games. The meaning of trap game is just a game you could overlook between two more significant games. That is it. It doesn't mean teams DO overlook them. The evidence suggests they don't. But that doesn't mean trap games as a concept are not a thing. It is just a term to define a perceived less important game between two perceived important games. 

 

It would be interesting to see how teams performed in relation to how they did the remainder of the season...ie, were they closer games than what would be suggested by their records/point spreads, etc.

 

A team could win the game, but still not perform well in it and do so because they overlooked the opponent.

[Fan in Chicago]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You misunderstand my point. Teams don't need to lose trap games for there to be trap games. The meaning of trap game is just a game you could overlook between two more significant games. That is it. It doesn't mean teams DO overlook them. The evidence suggests they don't. But that doesn't mean trap games as a concept are not a thing. It is just a term to define a perceived less important game between two perceived important games. 

If there is little statistical evidence of results being affected due to teams overlooking their next opponent, then it is a theoretical concept only. Which means that trap games dont exist, just the concept does. 

 

I look to the KC loss against the Bengals. It meets all the definitions of  trap game yet I dont believe they overlooked the Bengals. They had dug deep into their reserves to beat the Bills and were unable to replenish in time for their next game. 

[Big Turk]

12 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

If there is little statistical evidence of results being affected due to teams overlooking their next opponent, then it is a theoretical concept only. Which means that trap games dont exist, just the concept does. 

 

I look to the KC loss against the Bengals. It meets all the definitions of  trap game yet I dont believe they overlooked the Bengals. They had dug deep into their reserves to beat the Bills and were unable to replenish in time for their next game. 

 

I'm not sure an AFCCG could ever qualify as a trap game. One of the components that has to be there is that your opponent has to be vastly inferior to you.  Don't see how you could make a case that a team playing in the AFCCG meets that criteria.