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Trading into the top 10? Top 20?


Yantha

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Hello Bills Fans,

 

First off, my apologies if this has been discussed in another draft thread, but when looking through, I could not find it.  For the first time in a WHILE, I feel like the Bills have less holes than "usual" to fill, and with last season's playoff showing, I am very excited to see where this team can go in the upcoming season.  

Yes, there are some clear needs and we have discussed what positions to go for in the first round.  I'm usually a STICK AND PICK strategist with the draft, but this year we can afford to spend one or more draft picks to MOVE UP and get an impact player.  Are there any below that are worth it?

 

I've seen in our discussions:

Corner

Linebacker

Wide Receiver

D-line

O-line

 

So what I'd like to discuss here... is if there are any TOP 10 Talents (or TOP 20) that WILL NOT be available at #25 (or at least unlikely) even in the best hopeful scenario..... that we could consider moving up for, what draft capital that move would cost, and if it would be in the best interests of the team to make such a move.

 

To consider: TOP 10

-Is there a top 10 Cornerback that would be an instant impact player?  Stingley?  McDuffy? Gardner?

-Is there a top 10 WR that could justify such a move? I'm thinking NO......

-Is there a top 10 Linebacker?  I'm thinking NO....

-How about DL?  Hutch?  Thibodeaux?  Karlaftis? I'm thinking maybe...

-O-line?  There are quite a few top 10 OT's on that list.  Is Left Tackle worth such a move?

 

To consider:  TOP 20 (a less drastic move).  Is there any ONE player that can be that much of a difference maker compared to the 20-30 ranked range?

11. Drake London WR USC

12 Garrett Wilson WR OHIO STATE

13 Bernhard Raimann TC MICHIGAN

14 Travon Walker ED GEORGIA

15 Devin Lloyd LB UTAH

16 Jameson Williams WR ALABAMA

17 Devonte Wyatt DI GEORGIA

18 Nakobe Dean  LB GEORGIA

19 Tyler Linderbaum C IOWA

20 Jordan Davis DI GEORGIA

 

TOP 21-32: QB's removed

21 Chris Olave WR OHIO STATE

23 Trevor Penning T N IOWA

24 David Ojabo ED MICHIGAN

26 Jermaine Johnson II ED FLORIDA ST

27 Andrew Booth Jr. CB CLEMSON

28 Lewis Cine S GEORGIA

29 Kaiir Elam CB FLORIDA

30 Jalen Pitre CB BAYLOR

31 Treylon Burks WR ARKANSAS

32 Zion Johnson G BOSTON COL

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I’ve said it several times before. Right now CB is the glaring need.  If we don’t sign a CB before the draft and we want to take one in the 1st round, then it will require at least a slight trade up.  That’s simply because every team will expect us to draft a CB and will trade ahead of us if they want that player.  

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You don't trade up or into the 1st round unless you're looking for a QB.  That's the only position that you should part with any significant draft capital for.

 

Otherwise, let the draft come to you.

 

We circled the drain too many times during the drought years by chasing picks at other positions than QB.  

Conversely, we didn't pull the trigger on trades during the drafts that we really needed to find a QB 

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I think they will take a CB at some point. I would suggest 1st round but I think this staff for better or worse believes in Dane Jackson quite a bit and their younger guys like Cam Lewis. I would want more of a sure thing but I could see the Bills waiting until the middle round 3-5 to draft their first CB. 

 

They have and will always take a guy they think is the best player at a position of need. I could see LB/SAF/OL at 25 just as much as I can see WR/CB

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12 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I’ve said it several times before. Right now CB is the glaring need.  If we don’t sign a CB before the draft and we want to take one in the 1st round, then it will require at least a slight trade up.  That’s simply because every team will expect us to draft a CB and will trade ahead of us if they want that player.  

I dont think "every"  team will bother to trade up just to hamper the  Bills. What about the OTHER teams they have to worry about,  besides worrying about the Bills? There will be good CBs available at 25 if the Bills want one there.

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7 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I think they will take a CB at some point. I would suggest 1st round but I think this staff for better or worse believes in Dane Jackson quite a bit and their younger guys like Cam Lewis. I would want more of a sure thing but I could see the Bills waiting until the middle round 3-5 to draft their first CB. 

 

They have and will always take a guy they think is the best player at a position of need. I could see LB/SAF/OL at 25 just as much as I can see WR/CB

I think that is much too late. With the NFL emphasis on passing, Bills need to add a starting caliber CB, even if White is 100% ready and Dane develops.  No later than 2nd round. If Beane trades up, I think it will be day 2 and 3, not in first round.

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6 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

I would trade up to #20 if Trent McDuffie falls that far. I don't think any position besides cb is worth giving up picks.

 

   Also would depend on what is needed to trade for a pick you want.  And it also needs a willing trade partner.  Bills are no longer the basement dwellers of drought times.  Other teams may not trade as readily with us now that we are the team they are chasing.  Whatever happens this front office has certainly earned my trust in their abilities to get pieces that fit.  Will every move be the correct one  of course not.  Most will work well enough with the solid core we have.

 

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30 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I’ve said it several times before. Right now CB is the glaring need.  If we don’t sign a CB before the draft and we want to take one in the 1st round, then it will require at least a slight trade up.  That’s simply because every team will expect us to draft a CB and will trade ahead of us if they want that player.  


I respectfully disagree.  If we were in the top 10 and there were only 2 or 3 guys worth it, then probably. 
 

But with so many DB’s of value, 24 people ahead of us, and probably some teaches at QB, I think we will be fine staying put and still getting someone that can start day 1.  
 

Now, if Beane thinks there’s a game changer (which I don’t), then he will have no fear trading up. 

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CB up to top 10.  I’m consistent that I love the Syracuse article that was on another thread.  They swap 1’s, give away this years 3rd, and next year’s 1st.
 

It’s worth it to me.  The only other scenario would be keep the third, and give Edmunds to the Giants.  Some people mentioned last year Klein filled in pretty well when Edmunds was out after that first game.  I know we let Klein go, but I don’t if anyone has signed him yet, and we are thin at the cap.

 

Cheap labor in a ILB on the second or third is palatable as well.  My hope is we go after Gardner or one of the other blue chip corners, then find a WR somewhere in the draft, and a G.

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37 minutes ago, mushypeaches said:

You don't trade up or into the 1st round unless you're looking for a QB.  That's the only position that you should part with any significant draft capital for.

 

Otherwise, let the draft come to you.

 

We circled the drain too many times during the drought years by chasing picks at other positions than QB.  

Conversely, we didn't pull the trigger on trades during the drafts that we really needed to find a QB 

 

Unless you have a roster like the Bills right now. We won't have the roster space to sign all the rookies if we don't trade picks... So why not consolidate picks to yield better players? I really can't think of a real argument against it with the current state of this team.

 

If you have a roster full of holes yes, stay put. Draft at your slots, move around minimally... But when you have a stacked roster with very little holes, you identify your guys and you go get them.

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Beane has a tendency to trade up in the draft, so I won't be surprised. CB and LB seem like the only positions to me. The main targets would be Sauce Gardner and Devin Lloyd.

 

I don't think there would be an impact WR, DE, or OL that would justify trading up. Similar talent will be available at 25, IMO.

51 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

I would trade up to #20 if Trent McDuffie falls that far. I don't think any position besides cb is worth giving up picks.

I don't think the Bills would. He doesn't even have the minimum length they like. I think they target, Stingley, Sauce, or Booth.

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1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

CB up to top 10.  I’m consistent that I love the Syracuse article that was on another thread.  They swap 1’s, give away this years 3rd, and next year’s 1st.
 

It’s worth it to me.  The only other scenario would be keep the third, and give Edmunds to the Giants.  Some people mentioned last year Klein filled in pretty well when Edmunds was out after that first game.  I know we let Klein go, but I don’t if anyone has signed him yet, and we are thin at the cap.

 

Cheap labor in a ILB on the second or third is palatable as well.  My hope is we go after Gardner or one of the other blue chip corners, then find a WR somewhere in the draft, and a G.

Sorry need to fight silly Edmunds narratives.  It is categorically untrue that Klein filled in well for Edmunds.  I have contended that the data suggests we have better run defense with Edmunds in the line up.  Please prove either the defense or run defense did better with Klein in over Edmunds.  

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I don't think it's particularly likely to happen, BUT, we're going to have to be creative with salaries into the future... If you could find a team that valued Dawkins + 25 in the 10ish range and one of the top OTs was still on the board, I could see that potentially being interesting. 

 

Outside of something like that, or Sauce or Hamilton falling to the point where we could get him at a reasonable price, I don't think trading up is a viable option.


Trading down however... 

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4 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

It’s true he was bad at first, but improved with each game.  As I mentioned I’m like warm on Edmunds.  We only have so much space and he’s going to be a $14 mil. Asset.  We’ve already invested heavily defense.  We need a CB and is really the only starting hole we have on defense.

Im also cooling on edmunds for the money reason.  the improving each game is for 2020 i believe.  Last year Klein only replaced edmunds in the colts game and the Jets # 1 game.  Also agree on CB is the primary need.  To the OP i hesitate to trade up as it will cost too many top 100 picks which I think are very important to our continued success.

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While Beane and McD may have their sights on moving up in the draft, I don't think it would be for a CB. That position is pretty deep this year without a lot of separation. Honestly, there are potentially 6 guys that you could argue are worthy of going in the first round (Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, Derek Stingley, Trent McDuffie, Andrew Booth Jr, Roger McCreary, Kaiir Elam). I highly doubt all 6 will be gone in the first 24 picks. I suppose if there is one guy that the Bills love and he starts to slide, I could see them trading up a few spots to get him -- but otherwise I doubt it.

 

Beane knows what he is doing, unlike Whaley who traded away keys picks to move up for Watkins (when we had plenty of other holes to fill) in a WR-heavy draft. I just don't see Beane doing that for a CB.

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1 hour ago, Heavy Kevi said:

 

Unless you have a roster like the Bills right now. We won't have the roster space to sign all the rookies if we don't trade picks... So why not consolidate picks to yield better players? I really can't think of a real argument against it with the current state of this team.

 

If you have a roster full of holes yes, stay put. Draft at your slots, move around minimally... But when you have a stacked roster with very little holes, you identify your guys and you go get them.

You make a good point about the depth of the existing roster and potentially wasting later round picks, which is why I do see the Bills packaging some of those picks to move up in the middle rounds (say, 2nd-4th) -- but I don't think they want to cede future 1st rounders or give away this year's 2nd to move up in the 1st -- unless the temptation to move up is too hard to pass.

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We’ll supposedly this is a deep draft for WR and DE’s.  We don’t really need an End at this point, and you can make the argument to take a mid round WR’s.  
 

IMHO, CB if taken high enough could be a year 1 starter.  Of the six mentioned above Gardner has experience

and talent as a zone CB.  That places a nice blanket on the backend.  We’ve already improved significantly on the front end.

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6 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

We’ll supposedly this is a deep draft for WR and DE’s.  We don’t really need an End at this point, and you can make the argument to take a mid round WR’s.  
 

IMHO, CB if taken high enough could be a year 1 starter.  Of the six mentioned above Gardner has experience

and talent as a zone CB.  That places a nice blanket on the backend.  We’ve already improved significantly on the front end.

Im with you.  WR or CB in Round 1 please.  The lack of action on CB has been very apparent.  Its not like Beane and McD to not have a plan so I trust they are gonna do something they have confidence will net a good player and they can execute.  This has me me thinking they like a target they know they can get at the end of round 1 or they feel confident they can move up to get in round 2.  Moving up in round 1 just feels as if it could be too pricey to be the plan.

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The more we talk this out, there is a chance they like a couple of guys, and maybe they can get to 10-20 in the pick status.  
 

I know it’s a lot to give up, but we have a pretty complete offense as in the past we did a lot of 3-5 WR sets, but this was primarily 10 or 11 personnel.  This year we have an excellent 12 personnel grouping.  Or even 22 personnel with using Knox, Howard, Motor, and Gilliam in as a blocker.  That’s a heavy set made for pounding people not to mention Allen will never completely give up running himself.

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Definitely no trade-ups to the top-10 this year.   Top-20 is a stretch as well, unless the value just screams out due to some strange picks pushing guys lower (count on the Raiders to contribute to that again!)

 

All in all, I'm pretty ambivalent about this year's draft class.    I like the guys in the 25-45 range better than the top 20 relative to past years.

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Whether Bills will trade up and whether Beane is prepared to do are two different questions.  

 

Beane WILL trade up if he see a player that he believes is off such value that it's worth using draft capital to do it.   (That in part depends on his view of how many rookies actually could make this team.)   We know he'll trade up, because we all saw him do it to get Edmunds, and there are a few other examples.   When he see what he thinks is real value, he'll go get it.   As he says regularly, he'll do whatever he thinks he has to make the team better.  

 

I'm at the point where I'm not surprised by anything he does.  I mean, I can't predict what he'll do, but when he does it, it's Beane being Beane.  I really appreciate the breakdown of potential draft moves up in the original post.  It's sort of a menu of what Beane can select from as the draft progresses.  What we don't know, of course, is what Beane and McDermott think of these guys in terms of the key elements - team mindset, learner, tireless worker, etc.   If they see a guy who's a special athlete AND has the mindset they want, I can see Beane going up two spots, six spots, almost anyplace to around the top 10.  Can't see them being willing to give up draft capital necessary to get into the top 10.  You only do that for a quarterback.   I don't think you do that even you know for an absolute certainty you're getting the next Aaron Donald, because the extra performance you get out of him just isn't worth giving up several valuable picks.  

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59 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Im also cooling on edmunds for the money reason.  the improving each game is for 2020 i believe.  Last year Klein only replaced edmunds in the colts game and the Jets # 1 game.  Also agree on CB is the primary need.  To the OP i hesitate to trade up as it will cost too many top 100 picks which I think are very important to our continued success.

 

We have a LOT of good players who want to be PAID. We need all these high picks, and we need to I hit on them to lower our labor costs. One great prospect sounds awesome, but is it better than 3-4 solid starters who allow for more cap space to pay your stars?   🤷‍♂️

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13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Whether Bills will trade up and whether Beane is prepared to do are two different questions.  

 

Beane WILL trade up if he see a player that he believes is off such value that it's worth using draft capital to do it.   (That in part depends on his view of how many rookies actually could make this team.)   We know he'll trade up, because we all saw him do it to get Edmunds, and there are a few other examples.   When he see what he thinks is real value, he'll go get it.   As he says regularly, he'll do whatever he thinks he has to make the team better.  

 

I'm at the point where I'm not surprised by anything he does.  I mean, I can't predict what he'll do, but when he does it, it's Beane being Beane.  I really appreciate the breakdown of potential draft moves up in the original post.  It's sort of a menu of what Beane can select from as the draft progresses.  What we don't know, of course, is what Beane and McDermott think of these guys in terms of the key elements - team mindset, learner, tireless worker, etc.   If they see a guy who's a special athlete AND has the mindset they want, I can see Beane going up two spots, six spots, almost anyplace to around the top 10.  Can't see them being willing to give up draft capital necessary to get into the top 10.  You only do that for a quarterback.   I don't think you do that even you know for an absolute certainty you're getting the next Aaron Donald, because the extra performance you get out of him just isn't worth giving up several valuable picks.  

When they traded up for Edmunds and Josh, they were very clearly wanting to set the foundation of both sides of the roster. To your points, they saw the right guys with the right skills AND the right mindsets at the right price and pulled the trigger. 

 

We're a lot farther down the road now, so I think it's fair to expect some evolution of that thinking. As I mentioned earlier, we're going to have to get creative with contracts, a 17-game schedule means we need more depth, a more pass-happy league places even more emphasis on DBs, our past few drafts and FA periods cannot be discounted (how much more can we afford to invest in pass rush?!?), nor can our overall talent level (as I've said before, I think we're good enough to risk a few losses in the right deal). All that together, suggest 3 possible trade up outcomes... 

1. Go get sauce. He checks every box above and if McVey thinks he can turn this kid into a superstar alongside Tre, I'd entertain the idea (but probably cost-prohibitive).

2. (As mentioned previously) if you can flip Dawkins and 25 for one of the top tackles, I think that's worth considering as well.

3. If Jameson Williams (or whoever they think is a difference maker at WR) falls to where a minor trade up gets *their guy*, I'd think that's worth it too.

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2 hours ago, Georgie said:

I dont think "every"  team will bother to trade up just to hamper the  Bills. What about the OTHER teams they have to worry about,  besides worrying about the Bills? There will be good CBs available at 25 if the Bills want one there.

That was meant to read that “every” team will assume that drafting a CB is our intention and that at least one of those who wants said CB would trade up to get him.  I thought that was obvious. 

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I wouldn’t be at all surprised by a trade up. Sauce is a guy that they could target if they go up to one of the Giants picks. 
 

I can’t help thinking that Beane must love Jameson Williams. He talked about “if you find another Tyreek Hill call me.” Williams is the closest thing. The Bills are absolutely looking for a WR that runs after the catch. That was a big problem last year. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Bills move up 10 spots(ish) to try to secure him.

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2 hours ago, Virgil said:


I respectfully disagree.  If we were in the top 10 and there were only 2 or 3 guys worth it, then probably. 
 

But with so many DB’s of value, 24 people ahead of us, and probably some teaches at QB, I think we will be fine staying put and still getting someone that can start day 1.  
 

Now, if Beane thinks there’s a game changer (which I don’t), then he will have no fear trading up. 


My expectations are that Beane will add a serviceable (or better) CB prior to the draft and give himself more options at 25.  Then it would be business as usual in the draft. 

 

If he doesn’t, then possibly multiple worthwhile CBs make it close to 25 and Beane can stay put.  But if the need at CB is as great as it looks now and the draft falls as I expect, then moving up a few spots would be the smart move IMO.  And I expect Beane to make the smart move.

 

Or maybe he has something else up his sleeve.  We can’t know what is going on behind the scenes.  Maybe he has a trade for a CB lined up with another GM that he trusts and both can wait until draft weekend to execute it.  Then why not let everyone think you’re in for a CB at 25?  I guess we will see how it all plays out.  

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1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

Im also cooling on edmunds for the money reason.  the improving each game is for 2020 i believe.  Last year Klein only replaced edmunds in the colts game and the Jets # 1 game.  Also agree on CB is the primary need.  To the OP i hesitate to trade up as it will cost too many top 100 picks which I think are very important to our continued success.

This is where I am at.   If we are about to be in a situation where it is Edmunds or Oliver then I want Oliver.   I actually think Edmunds is a better player then most give him credit for but if we are going to lose him to financial reasons.....draft his replacement now and let him get a year in the NFL before starting him.

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1 hour ago, glazeduck said:

When they traded up for Edmunds and Josh, they were very clearly wanting to set the foundation of both sides of the roster. To your points, they saw the right guys with the right skills AND the right mindsets at the right price and pulled the trigger. 

 

We're a lot farther down the road now, so I think it's fair to expect some evolution of that thinking. As I mentioned earlier, we're going to have to get creative with contracts, a 17-game schedule means we need more depth, a more pass-happy league places even more emphasis on DBs, our past few drafts and FA periods cannot be discounted (how much more can we afford to invest in pass rush?!?), nor can our overall talent level (as I've said before, I think we're good enough to risk a few losses in the right deal). All that together, suggest 3 possible trade up outcomes... 

1. Go get sauce. He checks every box above and if McVey thinks he can turn this kid into a superstar alongside Tre, I'd entertain the idea (but probably cost-prohibitive).

2. (As mentioned previously) if you can flip Dawkins and 25 for one of the top tackles, I think that's worth considering as well.

3. If Jameson Williams (or whoever they think is a difference maker at WR) falls to where a minor trade up gets *their guy*, I'd think that's worth it too.

Thanks.  Actually, I think it's the same thinking in the sense that he'll move for what he thinks is the right player.   You've given a nice little summary on who you think might be the right person.   I don't know the draft class at all, so I don't know who sauce is, and it doesn't really matter.   Point is Beane will move for the correct corner.  I agree.  

 

Although it would be surprising, I can imagine that he'd move for a left tackle if he can develop a plan for how to deal with Dawkins - trading him is the obvious choice, and he's already traded a left tackle to move up.  It's a great benefit to have a 10- or 12-year starter at left tackle, and I'm still not convinced Dawkins is that guy.  

 

Absolutely I can see him dealing to move for what he thinks is a special receiver.  

 

Not a safety - too disruptive to the defense to move away from Poyer or Hyde right now, but the Bills will need a solution there in not many years.  Hamlin's development may help solve that problem.  

 

Maybe a linebacker, if Beane and McDermott share the wisdom of some here that Edmunds just isn't the answer.  People can call him McDermott's boy and all, but I think McBeane like Edmunds more than a lot of people here do.   I don't know, but the time a decision has to be made about Edmunds is coming, making the decision to move now wouldn't completely surprise me. 

 

I could see a move if they see what they think is a right center.

 

Hard to imagine that there'd be a running back they'd go after but hey, they have their view of what this team needs, and the right running back would be an amazing addition to the offense.  The problem with a running back is that if he isn't HOF great, you won't want to sign him when his contract is up, and that means burning first-round capital for short-term talent.   That's not consistent with their building philosophy.  

 

 

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5 hours ago, Heavy Kevi said:

 

Unless you have a roster like the Bills right now. We won't have the roster space to sign all the rookies if we don't trade picks... So why not consolidate picks to yield better players? I really can't think of a real argument against it with the current state of this team.

 

 


THe only argument I would present is that these rookies you speak of that don’t make the team are late Day 3 picks that have minimal value in a trade up,,, particularly in the first round..


I can also say that there are a lot of Day 3 picks Beane has made that have made and contribute to this team so they are good and finding the diamonds in the rough..
 

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5 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

You don't trade up or into the 1st round unless you're looking for a QB.  That's the only position that you should part with any significant draft capital for.

 

Otherwise, let the draft come to you.

 

We circled the drain too many times during the drought years by chasing picks at other positions than QB.  

Conversely, we didn't pull the trigger on trades during the drafts that we really needed to find a QB 

Beane traded up in the first round for Edmunds and traded a first for Diggs.  So obviously Beane does not agree with you.  He has also done what you suggest and sat back and let Oliver and Rousseau come to him.  I think there are many factors at play

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You can spin this so many ways and find a positive path for the Bills.  

 

Trade up and burn some draft capital to get a shut down corner - this fits the plan of win now at all costs.  It might hurt in the long run, but if they get a top cover CB it helps now and gives them flexibility if White does not return to ProBowl form.

 

Stay put - there is probably enough depth in this draft at CB and WR to get an impact player late in the first round. Even if there is a run on both positions then that likely means a quality OL has fallen to them.  

 

Acquire more picks either with a trade down or moving Edmunds - this is the scenario that gives you cap flexibility in the next few years and restocks the roster with some young cheaper talent at LB, OL, WR, and secondary.  

 

I would probably choose trading Edmunds for a #2 and get 4 picks in the top 100.  I would use the savings to sign Gilmore and then I would then take a LB, CB, OT, and WR in no particular order.  Get a punter in the fifth and a safety later.  

 

 

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