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Bills 2021 rookie class ranked 27th in league


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22 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

This is what happens with teams who draft very late.

 

First, you don't get a shot till in this case 29 other teams have picked. And second your roster is a ton stronger and it's hard for rookies to get many snaps.

 

It's just what happens. In a few years we'll have a better idea.

Not necessarily some teams put on clinics picking at the bottom of the rounds. Look at The Steelers all these yrs or the Ravens and even the Chiefs . 

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1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Not really in terms of a pick spent on projected performance and value.

True, but I think people are trying to highlight that Beane hasn’t evaluated talent, in the top of the draft, very well...

 

Diggs is an outlier because he was already a star in the league...So, while the Bills did get good value, it’s really outside the point of the argument...

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On 2/5/2022 at 1:19 PM, NewEra said:

Interesting that every player drafted by Beane in 2021 was on an active roster throughout the majority of the season. 

 

It’s hard to just MAKE a good team, much less contribute early. We have one of the best teams in the league, and there’s a reason for that. They have been drafting pretty well, and building a roster to last. We are not drafting and praying they can all make an immediate impact. We want help from the top 2-3 guys, and younger cheaper contributors going forward from guys after that. We got that. 

 

Rankings like this are silly, but my takeaway is…..the Jets are still the Jets. 😋

 

 

.

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On 2/6/2022 at 8:12 AM, JayBaller10 said:

Impact plays/splash plays, call it what you want, it’s semantics and points to the same issue - Tremaine doesn’t make many of them. “Ignoring all the impact plays that don’t happen” is quite possibly the most baseless argument I’ve ever heard one use to defend a player. It’s an argument built on supposition and assumption. We might as well say, “Mario Addison makes impact plays when he rushes and forces the QB off his spot - even if he misses the sack - because it prevented the QB from seeing a player running free in the secondary.” That’s your argument.

I don’t judge Tremaine or the rest of the defense by what they do against teams like the Jets, Texans, and Panthers. How does he and everyone else fare when they face a competent offense?
 

“Tremaine doesn’t get sacks because he’s not asked to rush the passer” (actually he does rush the passer, but sucks at it), “Tremaine doesn’t get interceptions because QBs don’t like throwing at him” (truth is he lacks ball skills, awareness, and has suspect hands). What else? Oh, “Tremaine doesn’t force fumbles because Bills defenders aren’t coached to go after the ball” (it’s preached ad nauseam to go after the football, I’ve heard defenders say this time and time again and even brought in Peanut Tillman to teach the technique).
The sad thing is you can’t even recognize the amount of excuses you’re making for the player because you’re convinced he’s something more than he is. 
If you watch the Beane presser, you’ll also see he describes Tremaine as “getting better”  playing with strength, getting off of blocks, and developing the alpha male mentality leaders need. You’ll also see it’s quite obvious from Beane’s body language and the way he speaks about Tremaine, he’s not completely sold on the player and like all of us, wants to see his game raise a level before talks of a contract extension. 
I half think you’re just trolling with your excuses.

 

It's not a baseless argument, so much as it is an argument that's inconvenient for you. It's in fact a completely sensible argument. For instance, Deion Sanders didn't get many INTS anymore late in his career. He wasn't making the splash plays anymore. By your logic that would mean he sucked. In fact, it meant nobody was throwing near him much. He was incredibly effective precisely because he stopped offensive plays from happening. Players absolutely should get a ton of credit for preventing impact plays that don't happen. It's hard to quantify, but it's still a thing.

 

And on Addison, you're right. Clearly, you don't know you're right, but you are. A guy who forces a QB off the spot, even without making a sack, is making a good play, lowering the offense's chances. Addison doesn't do that nearly so often as we'd like, but yes, when he does he's absolutely making a big play.

 

I'd agree with you as far as Tremaine isn't great at rushing the passer. But arguing that he does rush the passer a lot is utter nonsense. No he doesn't. It happens occasionally but far from often.

 

And I already addressed the Tillman technique in the original post. Bills defenders are taught to go after the balls situationally. If you're the first guy, you generally need to get him down. If you're coming head-on the Tillman technique won't really work. It works well when you're coming from behind or from the side and he doesn't see you, and also when you're the second or third guy and he's already going down. Edmunds is generally very visible and is either the first guy or easy to see. Would I like to see him get more? Sure.

 

The sad thing here is is that you can't realize that while a few of your arguments make some real sense, that your dislike for the guy means you're desperately subject to confirmation bias and will throw in any argument including plenty that make no sense.

 

They love him. Beane said exactly those words in the final PC this year. It's not a sure thing, particularly if he insists on getting all the money he possibly can. If he wants $16 or $17M, he'll probably get it, and not in Buffalo. But folks don't want to admit this but the odds on Tremaine being here a long time are pretty damn good.

 

I mean, you really feel that Beane's body language shows that he doesn't like Tremaine. Good lord! That's so far into confirmation bias it's pathetic.

 

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18 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Not necessarily some teams put on clinics picking at the bottom of the rounds. Look at The Steelers all these yrs or the Ravens and even the Chiefs . 

 

 

I didn't argue it happens that way every time. Just that on average that is how teams should be judged, particularly when you're only judging based on the first year of the draft class.

 

It's harder to get snaps as a rookie on a team with a roster that's already good. And it's easier to get players who can contribute early when you're drafting earlier in each round.

 

I also didn't argue that some teams don't do well at drafting, even late. Just that it's harder to draft well late and that later picks might well need more time and development. And if you do do well late you deserve more credit for it than teams doing well drafting early.

 

So for example, you're right that the Steelers drafted well all those years (not so consistently lately, though 2017 was pretty sensational, but they were the gold standard for a long time). But how much of that happened as rookies. The Steelers are famous for doing a terrific job of developing them and working them in, but for not getting a lot of use out of more than a handful of rookies.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

So for example, you're right that the Steelers drafted well all those years (not so consistently lately, though 2017 was pretty sensational, but they were the gold standard for a long time). But how much of that happened as rookies. The Steelers are famous for doing a terrific job of developing them and working them in, but for not getting a lot of use out of more than a handful of rookies.

 

 

This is spot on with the Steelers. The impact of their end of the round draft picks has often not really been felt in year 1. Take Bud Dupree as an example he didn't become a starter until year 3, Cam Heywood the same and David DeCastro who ended up an all pro and multiple time probowler at guard, didn't start as a rookie before taking over a starting spot his second year. 

 

And part of that is that they had a similar philosophy as Beane has demonstrated last year at the end of rounds. If you are drafting late round 1 all the true 1st round grades have gone. So take a guy with special traits of your next tier of grades. Someone with the potential to be special even if it takes some time (the truth is Groot was better as a rookie than many expected). 

 

Beane's worst picks - Ford and (unless it turns around soon) Epenesa - were when he tried to find players at spots where we were filling holes. 

 

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to me the groot and basham picks don't make sense.  i can see drafting one of them, but drafting both with our holes at TE2, CB2, OG/C just seemed like going all in on pass rush, but doing it at a sort of half pace, since we didn't go after anyone after low balling jj watt (that was a smart move tho, not paying up for him).

 

i think aj epenesa being so terrible necessitated the pick of groot and or basham tho.  out single biggest issue as an organization at the moment is the big resources we have dumped into the DL and front 7 just haven't gotten enough return.  oliver is nice, and i think groot will be a player, but all the free agent money and pics we have in there haven't really gotten us what we need.

 

all these JAGS look a lot better if we get a stud or two in there.  i'm going hard for chandler jones this offseason.  he, oliver, phillips and groot on the line can get your qb feeling queezy.

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Once you have an established competitive roster your draft picks are going to have a harder time making the 53.

 

That 2 were snatched off the PS on to another teams 53 speaks volumes to the quality and depth here.

 

Nobody was claiming the PS squad in years past and the Bills did a lot of dumpster diving themselves.

 

Pretty hard to get a day one starter at pick 25-32 unless you had major cap issues and cap casulties.

 

JMHO 

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I am only going to say this. Peter King a few years ago (maybe more recent) had a thing on the number of rookies who started and played the entire season from start to finish and it was 34 players in that class. Everyone really wants to have their players be impact people from day one but truthfully if you have more then one rookie starting throughout that is pretty decent. The sport really is about the long term and where guys are 3-4 years later. Obviously when you are in a SB window you want things as fast as possible so I get the angst. Additionally this is a reason that it is advised teams load up on picks so you have a better hit rate as drafting across the board is generally 40/60 success rate.

 

In regards to the Bills drafting I guess I would say they hit two big homeruns the first two years and have been average since:

2017: 3 major impact starters Tre White, Matt Milano, & Dion Dawkins... and a Peterman :) 3 rookie starters year 1

2018: Their first 6 picks are all players who start now in various ways: Allen, Edmunds, Phillips, Taron Johnson, Siran Neal, & Wyatt Teller (ugh)

2019: Oliver & Knox took time to arrive but they are here. Singletary seems to have found his way. Ford is a bust.

 

The three years are really a big portion of the core of this team and Buffalo found their superstar QB & CB, Pro Bowl LT, serviceable LB, and then some decent starts at DT 2x, Slot CB, SAF, TE, & RB.

 

Heading into the 2020 draft in many ways you felt like they couldn't mess up drafting as their hit rate was really good. They got Diggs with their 1st in 20 and only Tyler Bass & Gabriel Davis have really made a mark in this draft and 21 they got Spencer Brown with middling results across the board.

 

So yea the last two years haven't had some of the hot picks or early success that the first years especially brought. But Oliver & Knox both took 3 years to truly become what they are today. So patience unfortunately is the key either way.

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5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

It's not a baseless argument, so much as it is an argument that's inconvenient for you. It's in fact a completely sensible argument. For instance, Deion Sanders didn't get many INTS anymore late in his career. He wasn't making the splash plays anymore. By your logic that would mean he sucked. In fact, it meant nobody was throwing near him much. He was incredibly effective precisely because he stopped offensive plays from happening. Players absolutely should get a ton of credit for preventing impact plays that don't happen. It's hard to quantify, but it's still a thing.

 

And on Addison, you're right. Clearly, you don't know you're right, but you are. A guy who forces a QB off the spot, even without making a sack, is making a good play, lowering the offense's chances. Addison doesn't do that nearly so often as we'd like, but yes, when he does he's absolutely making a big play.

 

I'd agree with you as far as Tremaine isn't great at rushing the passer. But arguing that he does rush the passer a lot is utter nonsense. No he doesn't. It happens occasionally but far from often.

 

And I already addressed the Tillman technique in the original post. Bills defenders are taught to go after the balls situationally. If you're the first guy, you generally need to get him down. If you're coming head-on the Tillman technique won't really work. It works well when you're coming from behind or from the side and he doesn't see you, and also when you're the second or third guy and he's already going down. Edmunds is generally very visible and is either the first guy or easy to see. Would I like to see him get more? Sure.

 

The sad thing here is is that you can't realize that while a few of your arguments make some real sense, that your dislike for the guy means you're desperately subject to confirmation bias and will throw in any argument including plenty that make no sense.

 

They love him. Beane said exactly those words in the final PC this year. It's not a sure thing, particularly if he insists on getting all the money he possibly can. If he wants $16 or $17M, he'll probably get it, and not in Buffalo. But folks don't want to admit this but the odds on Tremaine being here a long time are pretty damn good.

 

I mean, you really feel that Beane's body language shows that he doesn't like Tremaine. Good lord! That's so far into confirmation bias it's pathetic.

 

Let’s make one thing clear: I don’t dislike Edmunds. I’ve never called him trash or terrible and would invite you to prove me a liar. He does some good things on the field, of course, but also leaves a lot to be desired. 

 

It’s evident both of us have biases when assessing his play, though yours are farther from reality. Are you seriously comparing our MLB and what he brings to the field to Hall of Fame CB Deion Sanders? Have you gone so far to convince yourself his impact is comparable? Your previous post was filled with excuses for why Edmunds registered 0 sacks, 0 FFs, 0 FRs, and 1 INT, despite being largely healthy and playing 100% of the snaps, but now you’ve outdone yourself. 

Quick, what’s Edmunds most notable play in his 4 year career? What stands out to you more than any other, the play that has so far defined his career? Does he have ONE? In what big game did he make his presence felt? Someone like you and your bias might tell me the Chiefs because he took away Mahomes first read forcing him to pick on the other defenders. What do you say to PFF’s poor coverage ratings? Are they biased as well and doing a poor job assessing his responsibilities? To illustrate just how much you grab at straws, you even argued that I said Edmunds rushes the passer a lot. Go back and re-read. I said he does rush the passer, but sucks at it. He gets stood up by RBs. But someone like you would tell me he’s doing his 1/11, opening the play so others could do their job. 

 

I said my biggest takeaway from Beane’s season ending presser was that he praised Edmunds for his role in the defense, as far as getting players lined up and shouldering that responsibility. That was what I felt was his most glowing remarks. I didn’t comment on all his other snippets that included “would we like to see him get better at…” because he didn’t say anything I found revealing. Call it confirmation bias. I’m willing to own up to mine, I live in a space closer to reality, but wouldn’t expect someone who compares Edmunds to Deion freaking Sanders to realize the extent of his biases. Good lord is right.

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So far this team’s last 3 DE picks have been pretty mediocre to poor and that is a huge weakness for us. Groot seems to be the only one with a decent ceiling just due to tools available alone with the other 2 having to show a lot more to become more than role players. We need at least 1 dominant pash rusher if we want to win a SB or more. 

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On 2/6/2022 at 11:14 AM, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Not necessarily some teams put on clinics picking at the bottom of the rounds. Look at The Steelers all these yrs or the Ravens and even the Chiefs . 

And lots of teams picking at the top, year after year, remain trash heaps.

 

People need to remember that teams do NOT have the draft order correctly analyzed...so there is not necessarily a huge correlation between draft spot and talent of player received, especially the further you get from the very top of the draft.

 

If NFL teams knew how to assess talent properly, Tyreek Hill wouldn't have been taken 165th overall, or have been passed over by every team in the league four--and some teams five--times.

 

For example.

 

 

 

 

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On 2/5/2022 at 12:10 PM, Long Suffering Fan said:

 

It actually does work that way.  Drafting at the top is an advantage.  Of course, that does not make your team instantly good....or ever good.  As you mention, see the Sabres.

 

If you draft bad, you can fritter away your draft position, but there is a reason that teams trade up.

 

It's a ranking of the rookie class on each team.  It's not a ranking "relative to where the team picked".

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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I can't.

I guess you aren't a big Sabres fan.

 

A couple names for you: Jack Eichel; Sam Reinhart.

 

We tanked an entire season for each; after years of losing, both wanted out.

 

Not saying it's exactly the same with the Bills and Allen, but there is precedent for it, at least hypothetically.


Look at the recent moving of good QBs around the league and Rodgers' current situation.

 

Never say never!

 

 

 

On 2/5/2022 at 2:55 PM, Malazan said:

 

Then there's you who's just always wrong and pretends that everyone is a kool-aid drinker because you're just really, really bad at being objective yourself. I've heard horse tranquillizer can help with that though. Drink up. 

Yeah right!  LOL.  Provide me with some links to all my "wrong takes".

 

Kool aid boy.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Yeah right!  LOL.  Provide me with some links to all my "wrong takes".

 

Kool aid boy.

 

Here's 1: 

 

Try thinking for a change instead of lashing out emotionally all the time. 

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On 2/5/2022 at 11:54 AM, Nextmanup said:

It doesn't work that way.

 

There isn't necessarily a correlation between draft order and draft quality.

 

The top teams in the draft year after year often remain terrible--look at the Buffalo Sabres.

 

And they are picking at the top.

 

27th for the Bills is NOT a good score but the drafting has been pretty terrible under this regime.

 

 

There is absolutely a correlation between draft order and draft quality. 

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2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

And lots of teams picking at the top, year after year, remain trash heaps.

 

People need to remember that teams do NOT have the draft order correctly analyzed...so there is not necessarily a huge correlation between draft spot and talent of player received, especially the further you get from the very top of the draft.

 

If NFL teams knew how to assess talent properly, Tyreek Hill wouldn't have been taken 165th overall, or have been passed over by every team in the league four--and some teams five--times.

 

For example.

 

 

 

 

 

Tyreek went 165th overall because of his character, not his talent. 

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3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I guess you aren't a big Sabres fan.

 

A couple names for you: Jack Eichel; Sam Reinhart.

 

We tanked an entire season for each; after years of losing, both wanted out.

 

Not saying it's exactly the same with the Bills and Allen, but there is precedent for it, at least hypothetically.


Look at the recent moving of good QBs around the league and Rodgers' current situation.

 

Never say never!

 

 

I wouldn't watch skate hockey if the alternative was torture. And Josh Allen is no Aaron Rodgers. He has always been a diva.

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Hot take city.  I love the potential Groot showed, and Brown is already there.  That's 2 very good starters at worse.  Basham contributed, and I think Stevenson could work his way in w/ that speed.

 

As some have said, it's easier for worse teams to bring rookies in as starters.  The Pats were #1, and their draft probably was the best they've had in awhile. But I'm still not convinced that Jones will be their starter in 5 years. Barmore was a bit win though.

 

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Drafting is an inexact science... Always has been and always will be

 

Philosophy, scheme, coaching, time to develop, work ethic, love for the game, are all things that shape a player's career

 

In one situation it could be positive and another it could be completely negative

 

Notice I said all those things without ever mentioning a player's talent.. because every single player is immensely talented at that level

 

Why do some players fall? Based on perceived negatives.. such as not ideal height weight or physique... Lack of competition.. or maybe questionable off-field decisions

 

What do consistently good teams do in the draft? They stick to their board.. they stick to their philosophies.. they draft good football players instead of reaching for athletes who can maybe play

 

Matt Milano.. probably a 7th round pick on most teams boards.. not great size and not the fastest. Good special team value  

 

But our scouts do a great job of projecting now.. they know the league has changed.. those 260 lb run stuffing days are gone 

 

So take a chance on an undersized coverage linebacker who fits the mold of the NFL... Somebody who pound for pound hits as hard as anybody just is undersized.. somebody who fits Sean's scheme with an understanding of what he's trying to accomplish 

 

And you get overachievers

 

Fit and scheme really are the two best chances for a player to succeed.. and when you put them in a good environment it's easier to flourish

 

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5 hours ago, Success said:

Hot take city.  I love the potential Groot showed, and Brown is already there.  That's 2 very good starters at worse.  Basham contributed, and I think Stevenson could work his way in w/ that speed.

 

As some have said, it's easier for worse teams to bring rookies in as starters.  The Pats were #1, and their draft probably was the best they've had in awhile. But I'm still not convinced that Jones will be their starter in 5 years. Barmore was a bit win though.

 

Yes, definitely a lot of hot takes in this one.

 

That said, good take on your part. I do believe Spencer Brown could be special.

 

And there still is a lot of potential in Groot. It wasn’t good that he fell off so early but that doesn’t always mean anything either.

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On 2/6/2022 at 7:12 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The top two rounds the past 2 drafts? First, he traded away the 1st round pick that year for Diggs. No first rounder makes it hard for a draft to show immediate big returns, and Diggs of course has been terrific.

 

Basically you're talking about three players (outside of Diggs), two of whom are rookies, and all of whom are way too young to fully judge.

 

2020 2nd: Epenesa  Not enough so far, but he's flashed and it's too early to know

2021 1st: Rousseau. For how much he's played, and the fact that he's a rookie, looks good so far.

2021 2nd: Basham. Hard to even comment, really. Showed flashes, but not enough, but the numbers game kept him off the field. No way to begin to judge, really.

 

Only other top two round picks for Beane have been:

 

Oliver: looks terrific.

Ford: looks awful

Allen: looks insanely good

Edmunds: looks good

 

Overall that's good.

 

I'd disagree with your grading of some of these picks, and my comments were limited to the last 2 drafts, when we are in "win-now" mode.  For those drafts: 

 

Epenesa: not too early to know.  He's a 2nd round pick.  That guy should be showing by now.  

 

Rousseau: I'm okay with this pick, although DT Barmore would have been a better pick given our need at DT.  

Basham:  Really hate this pick.  This looks like Bean couldn't decide if either guy would pan out, so he took 2 DE's.  Meanwhile, needing help on the OL, he passes on the best interior OL prospect in the draft in Creed Humphrey, who is an instant impact player that would have helped the OL (and also our cap space this year).  

 

I favor trading a pick for a player like Diggs if that's available.  Rookies, unless you really hit on the pick, could take too long, if ever, to develop.  We need a front 7 presence while our secondary is still playing well (Poyer and Hyde both on the wrong side of 30 and expensive).  

 

 

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10 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

I'd disagree with your grading of some of these picks, and my comments were limited to the last 2 drafts, when we are in "win-now" mode.  For those drafts: 

 

Epenesa: not too early to know.  He's a 2nd round pick.  That guy should be showing by now.  

 

Rousseau: I'm okay with this pick, although DT Barmore would have been a better pick given our need at DT.  

Basham:  Really hate this pick.  This looks like Bean couldn't decide if either guy would pan out, so he took 2 DE's.  Meanwhile, needing help on the OL, he passes on the best interior OL prospect in the draft in Creed Humphrey, who is an instant impact player that would have helped the OL (and also our cap space this year).  

 

I favor trading a pick for a player like Diggs if that's available.  Rookies, unless you really hit on the pick, could take too long, if ever, to develop.  We need a front 7 presence while our secondary is still playing well (Poyer and Hyde both on the wrong side of 30 and expensive).  

 

 

Is there anyone in particular that you would trade a pick for to get an impact player (like Diggs) at a position of need?

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I think this is pretty accurate, if anything there wasn't really any major contributors this year outside of Brown who wasn't even expected to be a factor but was somewhat forced in the lineup by default because of how bad the oline was early in the year.

 

At some point though Beane needs to be under the microscope because outside of Allen, you can argue he's not had any real big time hits in the draft in terms of finding star players, or even above average NFL players for that matter. And if Groot and/or Basham doesn't become a big time impact player next year that's essentially 3 wasted high draft picks on the dline in 2 years because doesn't look like Epensa is going to amount to much in this league through 2 seasons.

 

Meanwhile the team we are still chasing in the AFC continues to have excellent drafts on a year basis including finding two future all pros in Creed Humprhey and Nick Bolton last year.

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40 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

For a 29th pick....I thought Groot was pretty damn good

It seemed like Groot was coming on strong and then seemed to lose steam after the first KC meeting. That said, I believe he has great potential and it will be interesting to see how he grows in his second year.

 

Out of all of our picks, I thought Spencer Brown did the best for us this year. I really do hope he can continue to develop and continue to bring some stability to our o-line.

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22 hours ago, BillsFan619 said:

Yes, definitely a lot of hot takes in this one.

 

That said, good take on your part. I do believe Spencer Brown could be special.

 

And there still is a lot of potential in Groot. It wasn’t good that he fell off so early but that doesn’t always mean anything either.

In hindsight it makes a lot of sense that groot hit a rookie wall because he didn’t play last year.  Getting an off-season should help him be more consistent next year. 

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