Ed Oliver 5th year option

[DrDawkinstein]

For what it's worth, my plan for the DL would be:

 

Pick up Oliver's 5th year option

Let Hughes, Addison, Butler, and Obada walk (sorry Jerry).

Re-sign Harry and Zimmer

Begrudgingly keep Star because we don't save much by cutting him.

Sign Shaq Lawson as FA.

 

DLs:

1. Rousseau-Oliver-Harry-Basham

2. Epenesa-Zimmer-Star-Lawson

 

Maybe a DT draft pick in there for depth, and some of the guys we already have on our practice squad. If we could land Jordan Davis at #25, then bye-bye Zimmer or Star.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Billl said:

He seems like the perfect use of a 5th year option.  If I understand it correctly, he stands to make right at $10,000,000.  It’s definitely worth it for a one year deal, but the big question will be what do do with him long term.  He plays about 55% of the snaps, so you’ve got to include 2 salaries when deciding how much to allocate to his position.

 

I mean my answer to that is that he should play more. They need to get him to north of 65%. McDermott loves his rotation but that is where Kyle Williams was his two years here under this regime. The kid is one of the best players on our D. Get him on the field.

Edited January 26, 2022 by GunnerBill

[Billl]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean my answer to that is that he should play more. They need to get him to north of 65%. McDermott loves his rotation but that is where Kyle Williams was his two years here under this regime. The kid is one of the best players on our D. Get him on the field.

I would agree that they need to do that if they’re going to pay him long term.  IMO you simply can’t pay a guy big money if he doesn’t play the vast majority of the snaps unless he’s a dominant pass rusher.  He’s got 12 sacks in 3 seasons, so he needs to become one or the other.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

I would agree that they need to do that if they’re going to pay him long term.  IMO you simply can’t pay a guy big money if he doesn’t play the vast majority of the snaps unless he’s a dominant pass rusher.  He’s got 12 sacks in 3 seasons, so he needs to become one or the other.

 

He can do both. The sack numbers will come. I will call it here and now - Ed will be a pro bowler and get all pro votes in 2022.

[billsbackto81]

6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

DLs:

1. Rousseau-Oliver-Harry-Basham

 

Our pass rush was enemic with the experienced vets we had. You want to go into next year with 2 players that had limited play as rookies to be our starting DEs? What has Groot and Boogie shown us that they're deserving of being our front line starters? We need to acquire a game wrecker some way some how.

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

For what it's worth, my plan for the DL would be:

 

Pick up Oliver's 5th year option

Let Hughes, Addison, Butler, and Obada walk (sorry Jerry).

Re-sign Harry and Zimmer

Begrudgingly keep Star because we don't save much by cutting him.

Sign Shaq Lawson as FA.

 

DLs:

1. Rousseau-Oliver-Harry-Basham

2. Epenesa-Zimmer-Star-Lawson

 

Maybe a DT draft pick in there for depth, and some of the guys we already have on our practice squad. If we could land Jordan Davis at #25, then bye-bye Zimmer or Star.

Hughes is still a better player than Shaq, as is Addison. Whether they'll be better *next* year -- a year older -- is the question. Also, I think the Bills like to roll with 9 d-linemen. 

 

I'm pretty down on Epenesa. He not only doesn't make plays, he doesn't play within the framework the Bills use -- DEs getting pressure without overpursuing toward the QB. By running too far upfield, he was responsible for that one long 3rd-and-long run by Mac Jones on the Pats opening drive in the playoff game. 

[Billy Claude]

2 hours ago, Malazan said:

 

I'd argue that piking up the 5th year option occurs for 2 main reasons...

 

1. You value the player and want them back. Plan for a 2nd contract. 

2. You're uncertain and/or have an issue at the position. Basically a stopgap. 

 

I think #1 is Oliver and #2 is Edmunds. Edmunds is good at some things, but I suspect they would have brought in someone else there if they had the resources. The pandemic and subsequent salary cap drop really boned the Bills on the timing. Picking up Edmunds at that point was the best solution to keep the position at at least it's past skill level and allow Beane to focus dollars elsewhere to keep most of the team together or make improvements. 

 

It was really a masterstroke by Beane to keep as much of the team together in the circumstances. I suspect we'll see resources spent at LB this offseason where he has a bit more breathing room (even if they keep Edmunds). 

 

To keep this on Oliver though, I believe they value him and want to give him a 2nd contract. 

 

Absolutely.   I firmly believe they waited until  the very last minute to pick up Edmund's and Allen's options in the hopes of trading him or getting his replacement in the draft.  They waited on Allen's so it wouldn't be so obvious what they were hoping to do.

 

Give that, Edmund played  a lot better this year than in 2020.

[BillsMailman]

He’s gotten better every year. Why wouldn’t he pick it up. 

[YoloinOhio]

30 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

For what it's worth, my plan for the DL would be:

 

Pick up Oliver's 5th year option

Let Hughes, Addison, Butler, and Obada walk (sorry Jerry).

Re-sign Harry and Zimmer

Begrudgingly keep Star because we don't save much by cutting him.

Sign Shaq Lawson as FA.

 

DLs:

1. Rousseau-Oliver-Harry-Basham

2. Epenesa-Zimmer-Star-Lawson

 

Maybe a DT draft pick in there for depth, and some of the guys we already have on our practice squad. If we could land Jordan Davis at #25, then bye-bye Zimmer or Star.

It sounded to me from listening to Beane like Hughes won’t be back and Star will. But JMO. 

Edited January 26, 2022 by YoloinOhio

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Malazan said:

 

Name the player that would sign a 1 year deal for it that was available last offseason.

Okay, so here’s the LIST of ILBs that signed as FAs last off season.  The highest paid one, Kyle Van Noy, signed for 2 years at $6M per year.  The next was Jarred Davis who signed a one year, $5.5M contract.  There are several who signed for one or two years at $3M/year.  And, of course, many who signed for a lot less than that. 

 

Edmunds wouldn’t have been a free agent until this off-season though.  Those players all signed those deals last offseason.  The FO had options for this season.  They could have drafted JOK instead of Rousseau at 30 in the last draft.  Or they could sign one of the FAs this off-season.  Lots of the same names on that LIST.  They could also draft someone this year in addition to a low priced FA ILB and use the money saved elsewhere.

Edited January 26, 2022 by BarleyNY

[BarleyNY]

26 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

It sounded to me from listening to Beane like Hughes won’t be back and Star will. But JMO. 

It’s Star’s contract.  $2.5M of his salary is guaranteed.  That, along with other dead money for him, makes it difficult to cut and replace him from a cap standpoint.

Edited January 26, 2022 by BarleyNY

[Royale with Cheese]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He can do both. The sack numbers will come. I will call it here and now - Ed will be a pro bowler and get all pro votes in 2022.

What are your thoughts on Jordan Davis?

[Malazan]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Okay, so here’s the LIST of ILBs that signed as FAs last off season.  The highest paid one, Kyle Van Noy, signed for 2 years at $6M per year.  The next was Jarred Davis who signed a one year, $5.5M contract.  There are several who signed for one or two years at $3M/year.  And, of course, many who signed for a lot less than that. 

 

Edmunds wouldn’t have been a free agent until this off-season though.  Those players all signed those deals last offseason.  The FO had options for this season.  They could have drafted JOK instead of Rousseau at 30 in the last draft.  Or they could sign one of the FAs this off-season.  Lots of the same names on that LIST.  They could also draft someone this year in addition to a low priced FA ILB and use the money saved elsewhere.

 

This is a confusing post. This list is players are ones you think were better than Edmunds?

 

Kyle Van Noy was not a likely option. He wanted to go back to NE. He also got torched in the playoff game right before ours.. you might have seen it. Most NE fans want him off the roster at all costs. 

 

Davis was a nice player for the Jets, but he's just as limited (although in different ways) than Edmunds is and was a bust for the Jets. Did you watch him play at all?  Probably not because it was a hot minute. 

 

So is your evaluation of players off or did you not understand the conversation?

Edited January 27, 2022 by Malazan

[YoloinOhio]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He can do both. The sack numbers will come. I will call it here and now - Ed will be a pro bowler and get all pro votes in 2022.

Many of Beane’s picks seem to break out in their 3rd year. Makes sense that he did and will just continue to develop. 

Edited January 27, 2022 by YoloinOhio

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, NewEra said:

Yeah,  I’m happy with Ed and Greg.  Resign Harrison and hope he stays healthy. Pray that Basham turns out as it seems like AJ is a bust.  The hope for a “premier pass rusher” if bleak imo.  Most likely going to be another rotation imo.  Not much cap room and we have some holes that need patching.

 

I wouldn't call AJE a bust yet.  With Hughes and Addison still playing at a high level this year and the surprise of how much Groot played and excelled as a rookie after sitting out a year, it limited the role for AJE.  

 

But, all his teammates rave about him and I think this next year will be a potential breakout year for him.  Wasn't that long ago (last year) that people here were calling Oliver a bust...now he is a "no brainer" to pick up his option and seen as a long term piece here.  

 

My expectation going into next year is that week 1, Groot and AJE will be our starters at DE.  I think Hughes comes back, but will be a rotational guy.

8 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Many of Beane’s picks seem to break out in their 3rd year. Makes sense that he did and will just continue to develop. 

 

Exactly why I keep telling people its too early to give up on AJE too.

Edited January 27, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[NewEra]

12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I wouldn't call AJE a bust yet.  With Hughes and Addison still playing at a high level this year and the surprise of how much Groot played and excelled as a rookie after sitting out a year, it limited the role for AJE.  

 

But, all his teammates rave about him and I think this next year will be a potential breakout year for him.  Wasn't that long ago (last year) that people here were calling Oliver a bust...now he is a "no brainer" to pick up his option and seen as a long term piece here.  

 

My expectation going into next year is that week 1, Groot and AJE will be our starters at DE.  I think Hughes comes back, but will be a rotational guy.

 

Exactly why I keep telling people its too early to give up on AJE too.

I hope that you’re right. When I watch AJ, I see a guy doing everything he can to get to the QB and that usually includes giving up contain.  I wouldn’t compare him to Ed in the least.  Ed at his worst so far in the nfl has been as good as Ajs best imo.  He vanished during in his first couple years because he was a DT that was getting doubled 80% of the game. AJ looked amazing vs a terrible excuse for a dolphin OL and a couple other plays this year. Rd 2 pick after 2 years…..he’s been a bust so far. We’ve gotten close to nothing from him.  Will he be a bust?  We’ll find out. 

[BarleyNY]

58 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

This is a confusing post. This list is players are ones you think were better than Edmunds?

 

Kyle Van Noy was not a likely option. He wanted to go back to NE. He also got torched in the playoff game right before ours.. you might have seen it. Most NE fans want him off the roster at all costs. 

 

Davis was a nice player for the Jets, but he's just as limited (although in different ways) than Edmunds is and was a bust for the Jets. Did you watch him play at all?  Probably not because it was a hot minute. 

 

So is your evaluation of players off or did you not understand the conversation?

I understood your question.  I just thought it was a dumb way to think about the situation.  There are much better ways to spend $12.7M than on one season of Edmunds.  And there are better values at the position.  while the FA market at ILB isn’t loaded, it’s not like Edmunds is a good player.  Just because some fans have massively overrated him or continue to believe that his potential will be realized someday doesn’t mean it’s true.  Reality says otherwise. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

If there is one thing this board agrees upon is that Oliver has improved and he played well this year.  Is he living up to his draft status, not really but who cares. He is a consistent disruptor.  He will never be Aaron Donald, but nobody in NFL history has been either.  Pick up his option and then see what happens.  He is a top 8-15 DT but I'm sure he will want to get paid like he is a top 5 guy.  

[Southern_Bills]

8 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

He probably was, but he's still utterly replaceable.

 

 

 

Let me know when you find the elite DL aisle fully stocked at Walmart. 

 

 

[NewEra]

8 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

He probably was, but he's still utterly replaceable.

 

 

You just continue to reinforce you’re own narrative.  

[Malazan]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I understood your question.  I just thought it was a dumb way to think about the situation.  There are much better ways to spend $12.7M than on one season of Edmunds.  And there are better values at the position.  while the FA market at ILB isn’t loaded, it’s not like Edmunds is a good player.  Just because some fans have massively overrated him or continue to believe that his potential will be realized someday doesn’t mean it’s true.  Reality says otherwise. 

 

Your two suggestions were completely awful though and far worse than Edmunds. So you have yet to provide the better ways to spend 12.7 *in* one year. You also seem confused again here because they can't spend the 12.7M they paid Edmunds over 2 years. 

 

I can point you to some articles on how it works, but if sign a player to a 2 year contract then you have to pay him both years which counts against the cap in both years. The player also has to agree.. this isn't some little fantasy world where a player is going to accept a 1 year deal from the Bills when he has longer term offers on the table. 

 

I should never have mentioned Edmunds in an Oliver thread. Some people can't help themselves. 

Edited January 27, 2022 by Malazan

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

 

 

Yeah, hard to imagine them doing otherwise.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I understood your question.  I just thought it was a dumb way to think about the situation.  There are much better ways to spend $12.7M than on one season of Edmunds.  And there are better values at the position.  while the FA market at ILB isn’t loaded, it’s not like Edmunds is a good player.  Just because some fans have massively overrated him or continue to believe that his potential will be realized someday doesn’t mean it’s true.  Reality says otherwise. 

 

 

Thing is ... it really very much IS like Edmunds is a good player. Very good.

 

That ain't reality saying otherwise, it's people who think they're way smarter than McDermott.

 

Plenty of fans don't like the guy's playing style. And he certainly isn't elite or top five or anything. Just very good and an excellent fit for the McDermott defense. They love the guy.

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

The rotation did them a lot of good in that 4th quarter…. The rotation nonsense should be scraped in favor of more cap towards a dominating rusher. Maybe McD could adopt some of that “growth mindset” and get away from the 8 man rotation. It’s hurting his team. 

 

 

Get used to it. He likes it, and it makes sense.

 

Did we have a massive letdown? Yeah. Was the rotation the reason for that? No particular reason to think so. They didn't look exhausted so much as frustrated that whenever a guy or two got close, Mahomes had the transcendent talent to be able to run away. 

 

Saying "the rotation did them a lot of good in that 4th quarter" is just ridiculous logic. It was a loss. Nothing did them a lot of good in that 4th quarter. Might as well say that having Oliver didn't do them a lot of good then so we should get rid of him and every single other person on the defense. None of them did a lot of good there. That doesn't mean the problem is on whichever group or guy of them you are feeling like blaming.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

What are your thoughts on Jordan Davis?

 

Good player. Doesn't make much sense in Buffalo. 

6 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

The rotation did them a lot of good in that 4th quarter…. The rotation nonsense should be scraped in favor of more cap towards a dominating rusher. Maybe McD could adopt some of that “growth mindset” and get away from the 8 man rotation. It’s hurting his team. 

 

I don't think it is hurting as such but not totally sold that it helps. Ed needs to stay on the field more. 

[QCity]

In other news, Beane predicts the sun will rise in the east. Check out the 20 page TSW thread arguing about it. 

[1ManRaid]

14 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

He probably was, but he's still utterly replaceable.

 

 

 

Wow, I believe this is what the kids on Twitter call a "ratio".  Maybe even a "big L" to take.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[BarleyNY]

13 hours ago, Malazan said:

 

Your two suggestions were completely awful though and far worse than Edmunds. So you have yet to provide the better ways to spend 12.7 *in* one year. You also seem confused again here because they can't spend the 12.7M they paid Edmunds over 2 years. 

 

I can point you to some articles on how it works, but if sign a player to a 2 year contract then you have to pay him both years which counts against the cap in both years. The player also has to agree.. this isn't some little fantasy world where a player is going to accept a 1 year deal from the Bills when he has longer term offers on the table. 

 

I should never have mentioned Edmunds in an Oliver thread. Some people can't help themselves. 

I’m not getting into a petty snark war with you. You’re wrong about a lot here.  I’ll cover some of that and leave it there.

 

You keep talking about the FAs available last year and spending $12.7M on one of them.  That’s wrong.  Edmunds had his fully guaranteed, $12.7M fifth year option picked up last offseason, but it is not in effect until 2022.  That’s when the money will be available to spend.  As I said, I only posted the link to players signed in 2021 to show you what the ILB FA market looks like in general.

 

Your statement that the $12.7M would have to be spent in one year is wrong too. Carryover allows for unspent cap to easily be moved forward.  (There are also some ways to defer cap hits and spend future space earlier.)  There are countless ways to use $12.7M and many of them would be better than on 1 more season of Edmunds. 

 

You are correct when you state that FA players would have to agree to a deal with the Bills, but you don’t give a reason why that would be a problem.  Good teams rarely have trouble finding FAs at market value.  It’s the bad teams that have to overpay for FAs.  You’re wrong if you think it would be a problem to find players to agree to contracts here.

 

His salary of $12.7M ranks 7th in AAV for ILBs in 2022.  I don’t see him close to the 7th best ILB.  In general, it’s not a high paying position except for a handful of difference makers.  Edmunds has too many issues with his game to be in that pay range.  I’d have been okay if the team had declined his option and signed him to a more reasonable contract.  But $12.7M is his floor now. 

 

If someone wants to argue that Edmunds is a better player than I think he is (I’m looking at you @Thurman#1), then I’ll just say that I disagree and leave it at that.  You are entitled to your opinion.  I would point out that there team hasn’t signed him to an extension yet though.  Not even a whisper about it.  Allen’s deal has been done for some time now so there has been plenty of time and he’d be next in line for one if that’s the direction they wanted to go.

 

Thel lack of an extension for Edmunds and the fact that his option wasn’t picked up until the last minute leads me to believe that the team tried to extend him to a longer term, but lower AAV deal last off-season.  He didn’t bite so they picked up the option.  That’s just an educated guess, but it makes sense.  Now we just have to sit back, watch him play this season and see what the team does.

[Royale with Cheese]

8 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

I hope he’s not talking about coke.

[ArtVandalay]

On 1/26/2022 at 2:35 PM, Mark Vader said:

Do people on this board still think that Ed Oliver is a bust?

Not a bust but certainly disappointing considering his draft position and expectations.

 

9th overall pick expected to be a pro bowl caliber, penetrating, impact defensive player. 

 

He struggled bad his first year, struggled but better his second year.  Then this year he was a solid contributor. Average/solid player. Certainly not a high producing,  impact player you would expect. And he's been massively outperformed by a couple players drafted on the DLine immediately after him in Wilkins and Burns. 

 

He's still young and play has been improving, so he can still end up meeting his draft status and expectations, just not there yet. 

 

Personally, I'd like to see him take his physical shape more seriously and firm up. If he does it could propel him with a little more explosiveness and strength in his play to penetrate better. 

[John from Riverside]

On 1/26/2022 at 11:21 AM, Nextmanup said:

He probably was, but he's still utterly replaceable.

 

 

............................

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I’m not getting into a petty snark war with you. You’re wrong about a lot here.  I’ll cover some of that and leave it there.

 

You keep talking about the FAs available last year and spending $12.7M on one of them.  That’s wrong.  Edmunds had his fully guaranteed, $12.7M fifth year option picked up last offseason, but it is not in effect until 2022.  That’s when the money will be available to spend.  As I said, I only posted the link to players signed in 2021 to show you what the ILB FA market looks like in general.

 

Your statement that the $12.7M would have to be spent in one year is wrong too. Carryover allows for unspent cap to easily be moved forward.  (There are also some ways to defer cap hits and spend future space earlier.)  There are countless ways to use $12.7M and many of them would be better than on 1 more season of Edmunds. 

 

You are correct when you state that FA players would have to agree to a deal with the Bills, but you don’t give a reason why that would be a problem.  Good teams rarely have trouble finding FAs at market value.  It’s the bad teams that have to overpay for FAs.  You’re wrong if you think it would be a problem to find players to agree to contracts here.

 

His salary of $12.7M ranks 7th in AAV for ILBs in 2022.  I don’t see him close to the 7th best ILB.  In general, it’s not a high paying position except for a handful of difference makers.  Edmunds has too many issues with his game to be in that pay range.  I’d have been okay if the team had declined his option and signed him to a more reasonable contract.  But $12.7M is his floor now. 

 

If someone wants to argue that Edmunds is a better player than I think he is (I’m looking at you @Thurman#1), then I’ll just say that I disagree and leave it at that.  You are entitled to your opinion.  I would point out that there team hasn’t signed him to an extension yet though.  Not even a whisper about it.  Allen’s deal has been done for some time now so there has been plenty of time and he’d be next in line for one if that’s the direction they wanted to go.

 

Thel lack of an extension for Edmunds and the fact that his option wasn’t picked up until the last minute leads me to believe that the team tried to extend him to a longer term, but lower AAV deal last off-season.  He didn’t bite so they picked up the option.  That’s just an educated guess, but it makes sense.  Now we just have to sit back, watch him play this season and see what the team does.

I wouldn't pay him $12.70. Listen the last few remaining Edmunds lovers are just hanging on to a rationalization that he's not elite but great at what McD asks of him. We all know his ONLY strength is pass coverage. So why in Gods name wasn't his raw 6-5 frame guarding Kelce man to man on that last play?  Was this just another mistake by McD, long after the 13 second debacle.

[JDubya76]

Pick up is option, start talks on a 4 to 5 year deal, lowering the cap hit for the next five to six years…..wizard

[Brand J]

3 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I wouldn't pay him $12.70. Listen the last few remaining Edmunds lovers are just hanging on to a rationalization that he's not elite but great at what McD asks of him. We all know his ONLY strength is pass coverage. So why in Gods name wasn't his raw 6-5 frame guarding Kelce man to man on that last play?  Was this just another mistake by McD, long after the 13 second debacle.

I question how much of a strength it really is. It certainly isn’t a strength because he’s getting in passing lanes and deflecting and/or intercepting passes. I’d love for someone to crunch the numbers for when Edmunds is in coverage, I’d guess the opposing QB’s rating - when playing a competent QB - is actually fairly high. 

[DCofNC]

On 1/26/2022 at 5:09 PM, Malazan said:

 

Name the player that would sign a 1 year deal for it that was available last offseason.

What does last offseason have to do with anything?  5th year option screws us for NEXT season.

[oldmanfan]

They’d be idiots to not pick up Oliver’s 5th year.

[Malazan]

22 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

What does last offseason have to do with anything?  5th year option screws us for NEXT season.

 

They had to pick it up last year..

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

I never thought for a second that they wouldn't now hopefully we can get a solid veteran next to him. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Brandon Beane: Bills plan to exercise fifth-year option on DT Ed Oliver
 

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2022/2/3/22914635/brandon-beane-buffalo-bills-plan-to-exercise-fifth-year-option-on-dt-ed-oliver
 

 

Edited February 3, 2022 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce