Josh Allen's very strange stats in the final three games of the season

[billsbackto81]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Over the final three games, Allen's passing numbers were terrible, statistically speaking:

 

73.9 passer rating

5.7 ypa

53.4% completion rate

 

Yet in those three games he also was not sacked a single time and ran for 214 yards on 27 non-kneel down carries -- good for 71.3 ypg and an 7.9 rushing ypa (plus 2 rushing TDs and no fumbles). The Bills won all of these games by at least 12 points. 

 

Indeed, if you treat his rushing plays simply as completed pass plays at 7.9 ypa, his rating goes up to 86.8 -- 62% completion rate and 6.1 ypa overall, with 7 TDs and 3 TOs (again no fumbles and no lost yardage). 

 

Statistically, he has been extremely hard to judge this season - a true outlier. In terms of advanced passing stats, he was literally league average: 100 using PFR's advanced passing stat system, in which is 100 is average. Yet he led the league in rushing ypa and was sacked at a rate of 3.9 percent, which is really low given what the sack rate would have been for practically any other QB in the league playing behind this line.

 

The other notable stat: The Bills' team passer rating for the entire season was 91.3 and the opponent passer rating against our D was 65.3 -- a ridiculously high disparity of 26 points.  In these last three games, opponents' team pass rating is 50.6.

He has looked off the last couple games. Weather has been less than ideaI and I  would assume Daboll has been trying to implement more plays and establish the run game for a more balanced attack in the post season. Josh will come through when he needs to let loose and let it fly. 

[teef]

2 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Falcons and Jets are among the worst defenses in the league and all have metrics ranking near or dead last in most cases.

 

I know fans are quick to just look at the positives as the W's and clinching the division, but to think we are going to stand a chance in the playoffs with Allen playing like a bottom 3rd NFL QB is truly amusing.

they playoffs are an entirely new season.  as of now i'm not worried what happened during the regular season.  time to start looking forward to this saturday spanky.  i've learned a lot from you posting lately.  it's nothing you've said, but rather when posters correct you, it's good football talk.  i appreciate it.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Falcons and Jets are among the worst defenses in the league and all have metrics ranking near or dead last in most cases.

 

I know fans are quick to just look at the positives as the W's and clinching the division, but to think we are going to stand a chance in the playoffs with Allen playing like a bottom 3rd NFL QB is truly amusing.

And Allen wasn’t bottom third against the Falcons. Do you put no value at all in what he brings in the running game? Allen was dominant on the ground in that game.

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

And Allen wasn’t bottom third against the Falcons. Do you put no value at all in what he brings in the running game? Allen was dominant on the ground in that game.

 

Apparently that's only applicable to Lamar...

[FilthyBeast]

2 minutes ago, teef said:

they playoffs are an entirely new season.  as of now i'm not worried what happened during the regular season.  time to start looking forward to this saturday spanky.  i've learned a lot from you posting lately.  it's nothing you've said, but rather when posters correct you, it's good football talk.  i appreciate it.

 

I'm in agreement with you about the playoffs being a fresh start.

 

But in the back of my mind still very concerned about Allen and where his head is at. Something is just not right with him after such a great performance in NE and we all know we are going to go as far as he takes us no matter how good this defense plays.

[teef]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

And Allen wasn’t bottom third against the Falcons. Do you put no value at all in what he brings in the running game? Allen was dominant on the ground in that game.

he's just a disingenuous poster who either makes up or leaves out info to push this wildly negative schtick he has.

Just now, FilthyBeast said:

 

I'm in agreement with you about the playoffs being a fresh start.

 

But in the back of my mind still very concerned about Allen and where his head is at. Something is just not right with him after such a great performance in NE and we all know we are going to go as far as he takes us no matter how good this defense plays.

just have fun with it already.  

[Doc]

Just now, teef said:

he's just a disingenuous poster who either makes up or leaves out info to push this wildly negative schtick he has.

 

Josh must have snubbed him for an autograph.  Assuming he is even a Bills fan...

[FilthyBeast]

3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

And Allen wasn’t bottom third against the Falcons. Do you put no value at all in what he brings in the running game? Allen was dominant on the ground in that game.

 

Yes of course, but it's not sustainable unless we only want a few more high level production type of years out of him before he goes the way of Cam Newton.

 

Also I still think every time he takes off the greater the risk of a severe injury and/or turnover that costs the game.

 

Just remember, the Allen we saw in 2020 was the guy everyone in the league was fawning over and why he got a record contract. And that guy was doing most his damage through the air.

[billsbackto81]

9 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Falcons and Jets are among the worst defenses in the league and all have metrics ranking near or dead last in most cases.

 

I know fans are quick to just look at the positives as the W's and clinching the division, but to think we are going to stand a chance in the playoffs with Allen playing like a bottom 3rd NFL QB is truly amusing.

Falcons were playing for their post season lives before eliminated and the Jets being a division rival with a chance to ruin the Bills division title is plenty incentive. Yes, they're bottom tier but they brought some fight in those games. Plus I'm sure Daboll was trying to implement more running plays for offensive balance in the playoffs and that may have disrupted Josh's rythum a little. Plus the weather has been 💩.

[Mikie2times]

Allen is a very unique player and difficult to evaluate through conventional methods. I think his closest comps are Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Randall Cunningham, Cam Newton/Daunte Culpepper (in the best years they had), some Steve Young. If they all had DNA mixed and you sprinkled in some Brett Favre that's what we are dealing with. Allen is likely the most gifted of these guys just based on his physical stature and capability which is saying something. What is unique about all of these guys is they're mostly passing scramblers, not a scrambling passers. When it comes to QB's who are a true threat on the ground they generally have to develop more in the passing game. They aren't as dangerous in the passing game as a whole nor are they in scramble drills. Think guys like Michael Vick or Lamar Jackson or Vince Young. Allen is trying to pass. If you flush him he is still trying to pass. If you clearly give him the option to run he will gash you. He's not a guy that just dinks and dunks down the field or will generally have the ball out at the top of his drop. He's one of the all time freak athletes to play the QB position and a lot of what he generates is not by design. He is responsible for so much as it relates to how we generate points. Probably more so on an individual basis than any player in the NFL provides for his team.  

 

   

[Billsfan1972]

Face it, last year Allen was deadly accurate throwing the ball 20 yards down the seam.  This year he's been off.  I'll blame the weather, the line play and just herky jerky play calling.

 

Can all be redeemed in the next 4 games (through February 13th).

[TBBills]

4 hours ago, Motorin' said:

So you're saying Josh Allen's passer rating goes down in late season bad weather games, but the opponent's rating goes down like 3 or 4 times more?

 

 

 

You know what would fix that...

30 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Falcons and Jets are among the worst defenses in the league and all have metrics ranking near or dead last in most cases.

 

I know fans are quick to just look at the positives as the W's and clinching the division, but to think we are going to stand a chance in the playoffs with Allen playing like a bottom 3rd NFL QB is truly amusing.

Weren't you proven wrong in the past 2 threads you made? You just don't know when to give up.

Edited January 10, 2022 by TBBills

[Motorin']

14 minutes ago, TBBills said:

You know what would fix that...

 

Mounting windmills all around the stadium in order to slow the gusts?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

35 minutes ago, TBBills said:

You know what would fix that...

Weren't you proven wrong in the past 2 threads you made? You just don't know when to give up.

yeah but now that Miami fired Flores he will be back to tell us how 2022 is the year the Dolphins take the division with a real head coach.

[eball]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Falcons and Jets are among the worst defenses in the league and all have metrics ranking near or dead last in most cases.

 

I know fans are quick to just look at the positives as the W's and clinching the division, but to think we are going to stand a chance in the playoffs with Allen playing like a bottom 3rd NFL QB is truly amusing.

 

I don't think Miami made it (or whoever else you root for).

 

[TBBills]

6 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

yeah but now that Miami fired Flores he will be back to tell us how 2022 is the year the Dolphins take the division with a real head coach.

I hope he does b.c he is always wrong.

[Doc]

11 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

yeah but now that Miami fired Flores he will be back to tell us how 2022 is the year the Dolphins take the division with a real head coach.

 

Did he say that before?

[CincyBillsFan]

Judas Priest.  It defies understanding how anyone who has attended a bad weather wind game in Rich Stadium would ever question how much those conditions will impact a passing game and a teams offensive efficiency.  My only conclusion is that those who are claiming that the high winds and freezing cold are just an excuse for inconsistent offense play have never actually sat out in a game in those conditions.

 

I call these people out as frauds.

 

 

 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Judas Priest.  It defies understanding how anyone who has attended a bad weather wind game in Rich Stadium would ever question how much those conditions will impact a passing game and a teams offensive efficiency.  My only conclusion is that those who are claiming that the high winds and freezing cold are just an excuse for inconsistent offense play have never actually sat out in a game in those conditions.

 

I call these people out as frauds.

 

 

 

 

 

With the wind, Buffalo 24 and the Jets 10

Against the wind, Buffalo 3 and the Jets 0

 

I honestly think the wind will eventually become a massive advantage for this team as it was for the 90's Bills. Allen just plays worse, his competition can't even function. Think Baltimore last year, New England, Jets game...... 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

With the wind, Buffalo 24 and the Jets 10

Against the wind, Buffalo 3 and the Jets 0

 

I honestly think the wind will eventually become a massive advantage for this team as it was for the 90's Bills. Allen just plays worse, his competition can't even function. Think Baltimore last year, New England, Jets game...... 

Rather the focus on Allen who IMO is handling the wind better then any QB in Bills history McBean needs to identify a punter who can navigate these wind storms.  With better punting yesterday the Jets don't score any points.

 

 

 

 

[Doc]

28 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Judas Priest.  It defies understanding how anyone who has attended a bad weather wind game in Rich Stadium would ever question how much those conditions will impact a passing game and a teams offensive efficiency.  My only conclusion is that those who are claiming that the high winds and freezing cold are just an excuse for inconsistent offense play have never actually sat out in a game in those conditions.

 

I call these people out as frauds.

 

Yeah but Beane said that Josh can throw pinpoint passes thru category 5 hurricane winds...

[TheyCallMeAndy]

9 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

Whatever you say Andy.

Allen hitting in the high 40s and low 50s is uncharacteristic, I feel DaBoll did minimal to help him. I feel his strange stats were more a symptom of poor gameplan by the coaches.

Edited January 11, 2022 by TheyCallMeAndy

[ganesh]

8 hours ago, Xwnyer said:

One troubling thing I am seeing is pinpoint precision first couple drives than ball is flying over heads and through hands of receivers 

It was the damn wind!

[LABILLBACKER]

10 hours ago, Motorin' said:

So you're saying Josh Allen's passer rating goes down in late season bad weather games, but the opponent's rating goes down like 3 or 4 times more?

 

 

 

He's going to struggle in bad weather games. Especially involving any wind. That's just a fact.  He's also likely to run more.

[HappyDays]

I figured out why passer rating underrates Allen.

 

A QB who completes 1 of 3 passes for 15 yards has a 50.7 passer rating. A QB who completes 3 of 3 passes for 10 yards has an 80.6 passer rating. How does that make any sense?

 

Passer rating overrates completion percentage at the expense of big plays. Case in point Justin Herbert had just an 80.4 passer rating in his superstar game last night. Carr had an 88.4.

[Motorin']

12 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

Doesn't count. He's a QB, so his rushing stats don't count... Plus the Bills can't run the ball...

 

2,100 rushing yards later... The Bills still can't run the ball. 

 

@Bob in STL and @Fan in Chicago

I guess I didn't make the sarcasm clear enough?

 

 

[Warcodered]

 

[DCbillsfan]

The TD to Diggs was absolutely terrible!  😁

[QLBillsFan]

12 hours ago, Motorin' said:

So you're saying Josh Allen's passer rating goes down in late season bad weather games, but the opponent's rating goes down like 3 or 4 times more?

 

 

 

Who would have thought ? It’s why JK never had the best stats. I’ll take those  JA stats vs what any other QB would do in similar conditions. 

[QLBillsFan]

57 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I figured out why passer rating underrates Allen.

 

A QB who completes 1 of 3 passes for 15 yards has a 50.7 passer rating. A QB who completes 3 of 3 passes for 10 yards has an 80.6 passer rating. How does that make any sense?

 

Passer rating overrates completion percentage at the expense of big plays. Case in point Justin Herbert had just an 80.4 passer rating in his superstar game last night. Carr had an 88.4.

Mac Jones is perfect for passer rating geek stats. JA and Herbert pass the real test of DC’s rating of who do you not wanna play against. 

[Scott7975]

10 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

Like I've said in recent weeks here, Allen is good QB and is likely the franchise QB here for the foreseeable future.

 

But to put him on a pedestal as if he's truly in the upper echelon of guys who have been at the top of the league year in and year out is silly.He's got a long way to go and just because Beane decided to jump the gun and pay him an absurd contract it doesn't mean he's worth it (yet).

 

Bottom line if Allen plays like he did the last few weeks we'll be one and done and the Patriots have already proven they can beat us in Buffalo especially with Allen not playing well. People need to stop using the weather as an excuse because it's simply not valid with the live arm Allen has.

 

For this team to go anyway in the playoffs Allen has to play at or close to the level he has shown in games like KC or NE, same deal with McDermott and the coaching staff too with their gameplans in terms of being aggressive vs passive.

 

 

 

STFU Troll

[78thealltimegreat]

Would love a stat done how many balls does Josh’s receivers drop cause Gabe Davis had his worst game in a Bills uniform 

[78thealltimegreat]

10 hours ago, Warcodered said:

 

Don’t ever give counter stats to Allen haters on here they still think Tyrod Taylor should be qb 

[Big Blitz]

 

Not sure if posted anywhere.  

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Not sure if posted anywhere.  

Holy cow that's an incredible stat. Usually QB's whose O-line experiences high levels of turnover struggle mightily.  That Allen put up the numbers he did and led his team to a Division title is amazing considering this stat.

 

 

[Doc]

It is impressive.  The OL needs to be THE priority this off-season.

[Nextmanup]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

It is impressive.  The OL needs to be THE priority this off-season.

Josh being pressured and having to run around is the single biggest factor that generates a poor Josh Allen game IMO.

 

If we could eliminate 50% of that crap next year, Josh could be 50% better, or something like that.

 

Josh Allen is the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth most important person on the team!

 

Anything that makes him better translates most directly to more wins and fewer losses.

 

So yes, the OL must be priority Number 1.  I'm sure it will be...Beane is too smart not to go that route.

 

 

[Jerome007]

All I care is that while Josh  did struggle in his last 2 games, anyone with eyes could tell he was still a gigantic threat, an elite player, a force. Quite amazing. 3 INT in 4 passes, completing just 2 out of 10+ passes at one point in the next game, yet both wins, both wins that he contributed mightily too.  It was great other players stepped up big time, but it's not like Josh simply "managed" the game while others performed. He willed his way to victory as well.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Not sure if posted anywhere.  

The pressure stats are even more incredible then the constant shuffling of the Bill's O-line.  Given the reality that Allen faced on the O-line, not only did he NOT regress he played better in 2021 then he did in 2020. For heavens sake, Allen faced the MOST pressures in the NFL: