Kurt Warner breakdown on Bills vsJaguars game

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

 

Allen really did struggle in the game. Kurt Warner does amazing breakdowns.

Edited November 10, 2021 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

 

Allen really did struggle in the game. Kurt Warner does amazing breakdowns.

 

Funny you say that, because I get about the least out of them that I get out of any of the film breakdowns.

Can't tell you why

I loved Kurt Warner as a player, I just don't find his breakdowns that helpful.

[GETTOTHE50]

warner is an old, bitter wet towel. its sad to see how jealous he is of JA17.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Funny you say that, because I get about the least out of them that I get out of any of the film breakdowns.

Can't tell you why

I loved Kurt Warner as a player, I just don't find his breakdowns that helpful.

It’s usually because he can’t hide his disdain for Allen. Warner was a big wrong Josher.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Funny you say that, because I get about the least out of them that I get out of any of the film breakdowns.

Can't tell you why

I loved Kurt Warner as a player, I just don't find his breakdowns that helpful.

 

Really like Kurt Warner and his breakdowns. Honestly follow lots of breakdowns to understand the game better.  Lots of different people.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

33 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It’s usually because he can’t hide his disdain for Allen. Warner was a big wrong Josher.

 

I suppose that could be part of it

Josh is a very very different QB than Warner was.  Warner made his living on the quick strike passing game, knowing where he was going to go with the ball and getting it there quickly and accurately.

 

But when I watch him break down other games and other players, I just don't get as much out of it as I do out of, say, Brett Kollman or Cover1 or Jim Kubiak's writeup.  I can't put my finger on why.  I'll shut up now, not trying to squelch discussion from people who find his takes helpful.

 

@Buffalo Bills Fan, can you share particulars about what you found insightful or useful here?

[ticketssince61]

Love these type of analyses since they don't show this kind of detail during the came and the average fan cannot see these on their own

 

However,

1. Most of those hidden yards were not that significant

2. A lot of times, it seemed that JA had to throw it a bit off because there were Jags running untouched towards him

3. I am sure that you kind all of these 'hidden yards' with every QB

4. He is a HOF QB, but it is ALOT easier to find the hidden yards a) watching game tape; b) in slow motion and c) with aerial views

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I suppose that could be part of it

Josh is a very very different QB than Warner was.  Warner made his living on the quick strike passing game, knowing where he was going to go with the ball and getting it there quickly and accurately.

 

But when I watch him break down other games and other players, I just don't get as much out of it as I do out of, say, Brett Kollman or Cover1 or Jim Kubiak's writeup.  I can't put my finger on why.  I'll shut up now, not trying to squelch discussion from people who find his takes helpful.

 

@Buffalo Bills Fan, can you share particulars about what you found insightful or useful here?

In this video. Lots of throws Allen was pretty late throwing underneath. His views can be helpful but seems so simple. The people you mentioned love there break downs as well. Try to learn them all.  His views are pretty simple. Right helleva QB in the past. Allen is different from him. Allen can learn from him quick passing and underneath route's if opponent d try to do coverages ( Tampa 2 , pressure and such). If needed a quick passing game.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

In this video. Lots of throws Allen was pretty late throwing underneath. His views can be helpful but seems so simple. The people you mentioned love there break downs as well. Try to learn them all.  His views are pretty simple. Right helleva QB in the past. Allen is different from him. Allen can learn from him quick passing and underneath route's if opponent d try to do coverages ( Tampa 2 , pressure and such). If needed a quick passing game.

 

Cover1 and Jim Kubiak and others often point out plays where they assert Allen's reads are deep-to-shallow.  If true, that may be a problem with play design.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Cover1 and Jim Kubiak and others often point out plays where they assert Allen's reads are deep-to-shallow.  If true, that may be a problem with play design.

Cover 1 and Jim kubiak are great to learn from. They are really good.

Edited November 11, 2021 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[ngbills]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Cover1 and Jim Kubiak and others often point out plays where they assert Allen's reads are deep-to-shallow.  If true, that may be a problem with play design.

Play design and/or adjustments not being made seem to be the biggest issue after watching and rewatching these breakdowns. That is good news...I think. It means Daboll and Allen have some work to do if they are willing to make changes needed. 

[Matt_In_NH]

I liked seeing this, a couple things come to mind.

 

1.   Being good as an NFL QB requires figuring things out presnap.  When you see guys open after the play people are quick to point it out but the reality is the QB has very little time to figure it out and make the throw.  The OBJ dad video was dumb for this reason.  Josh helps himself a lot by knowing what will happen after the snap and using that to his advantage.  Using his eyes post snap to confirm the read and make the play.   I felt like Josh did that better last year than this year.  It seems like defenses have kind of figured out some tendencies and Josh/the Bills need to counter.

2.  Pressure....Kurt ignored the pressure in this video...there were times he was saying Allen should have done this....meanwhile he is sidestepping and otherwise avoiding a DL and not able to throw when Kurt though he should be.   As we all know the OL was terrible last Sunday I'm just saying Kurt ignored that during this analysis.

3.  Ball placement is important on the throws at the LOS...need to get the receiver going the right way.

4.  Hearing a lot about cover 2/Tampa 2/2 deeps shell.....that seems like a general approach teams are using against explosive offenses...I am not an expert but again, sometimes this stuff is move counter move.  Something has to be there when you have talent and the Bills have the talent, figure it out....

Edited November 11, 2021 by mattynh

[Augie]

1 hour ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

warner is an old, bitter wet towel. its sad to see how jealous he is of JA17.

 

It seems the underdog JUCO experience might seem almost as cool as stocking shelves. He doesn’t seem to give Josh his due, for some reason.  🤷‍♀️

[billybrew1]

1 hour ago, ticketssince61 said:

Love these type of analyses since they don't show this kind of detail during the came and the average fan cannot see these on their own

 

However,

1. Most of those hidden yards were not that significant

2. A lot of times, it seemed that JA had to throw it a bit off because there were Jags running untouched towards him

3. I am sure that you kind all of these 'hidden yards' with every QB

4. He is a HOF QB, but it is ALOT easier to find the hidden yards a) watching game tape; b) in slow motion and c) with aerial views

Josh thinks the same way you do. That these reads are not that important, but they are.

Josh has to learn to take what is there and not fight the play.

It is these little things Josh has to learn and do.

And that's a big reason why we have been struggling all year on offense.

Josh isn't the only one screwing up but he is older now and has to lead by doing what the coaches tell him.

Thats all that Brady does. Calls the right checks and runs the play according to what the defense is doing.

You take what's there.

 

Hopefully, Josh will eventually learn.

We have this year and next year to win a Super Bowl before Josh's big money kicks in, Now would be a good time to stop fighting the play. Imho, Josh also has to get better at throwing very long passes (bombs). He gets those two things down, we will be very difficult to beat. Especially once Brown, Knox, and Feliciano get back.

[GETTOTHE50]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

It seems the underdog JUCO experience might seem almost as cool as stocking shelves. He doesn’t seem to give Josh his due, for some reason.  🤷‍♀️

youd think if anything he would respect the hell out of the path JA17 went through, not being offered any scholarships and having to start out a junior college. How can you not respect the perseverance?  Yes JA17 is an athletic freak of nature, but so was Jamarcus Russel, the difference being JA17 is a humble person with work ethic. 

I dont understand how people dont like him, unless you are an divisional foe.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

youd think if anything he would respect the hell out of the path JA17 went through, not being offered any scholarships and having to start out a junior college. How can you not respect the perseverance?  Yes JA17 is an athletic freak of nature, but so was Jamarcus Russel, the difference being JA17 is a humble person with work ethic. 

I dont understand how people dont like him, unless you are an divisional foe.

 

Love Josh lots. Really want to see him do well.  He is a humble person with work ethic. 

[JerseyBills]

3 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

 

Allen really did struggle in the game. Kurt Warner does amazing breakdowns.

Added this vid to my post because it's almost exactly what I meant.

Thanks for this! 17 was awful in this game.

Can't wait to see him overcome this adversity vs Jests. 

Edited November 11, 2021 by JerseyBills

[dave mcbride]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

It’s usually because he can’t hide his disdain for Allen. Warner was a big wrong Josher.

Disagree. I thought it was fair. Allen has a terrible game even factoring in line play. I don’t think that’s actually arguable.

42 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

youd think if anything he would respect the hell out of the path JA17 went through, not being offered any scholarships and having to start out a junior college. How can you not respect the perseverance?  Yes JA17 is an athletic freak of nature, but so was Jamarcus Russel, the difference being JA17 is a humble person with work ethic. 

I dont understand how people dont like him, unless you are an divisional foe.

This is kind of a false narrative. Warner has had complimentary videos about Allen in the past.

[Augie]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Disagree. I thought it was fair. Allen has a terrible game even factoring in line play. I don’t think that’s actually arguable.

This is kind of a false narrative. Warner has had complimentary videos about Allen in the past.

 

I’ve seen a few of Warner’s clips. I don’t hate the guy (and I love his story), but I never found them very entertaining or enlightening. I didn’t even click on the link above. Maybe my sample size wasn’t large enough to be valid, but there are people out there I’d rather spend my time and clicks on. 

[BananaB]

38 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Added this vid to my post because it's almost exactly what I meant.

Thanks for this! 17 was awful in this game.

Can't wait to see him overcome this adversity vs Jests. 

I never watch this stuff but based off the pic if Allen throws to the RB there he doesn’t get in the end zone. It’s 3rd down so waiting for something to open up in the end zone does not hurt us at all, just makes the fg try a couple yards longer. 
 

It’s kind of a terrible play to choose for him not taking the shorter route. Maybe if it was on second down there would be something to complain about, on third he gotta look to the end zone if the short guy don’t got the room to run it in. 

[Scott7975]

56 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Added this vid to my post because it's almost exactly what I meant.

Thanks for this! 17 was awful in this game.

Can't wait to see him overcome this adversity vs Jests. 

 

You can post this over and over everyday all you want.  It doesnt make it correct.  Many posters showed you that you are wrong.  Quit spamming.

Edited November 11, 2021 by Scott7975

[CincyBillsFan]

57 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Added this vid to my post because it's almost exactly what I meant.

Thanks for this! 17 was awful in this game.

Can't wait to see him overcome this adversity vs Jests. 

I believe that was a 2nd & goal and if Allen hits Moss at that moment he's tackled at the 4 yard line for a 3rd and goal. I have no problem with Allen looking to get the ball into the end zone on that play.

 

The real issue is that on first & goal from the 4, Moss lost 3 yards on a run.

 

 

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I believe that was a 2nd & goal and if Allen hits Moss at that moment he's tackled at the 4 yard line for a 3rd and goal. I have no problem with Allen looking to get the ball into the end zone on that play.

 

The real issue is that on first & goal from the 4, Moss lost 3 yards on a run.

 

 

 

It was actually 3rd and goal at that point so it makes even less sense to make that throw.

[BananaB]

6 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I believe that was a 2nd & goal and if Allen hits Moss at that moment he's tackled at the 4 yard line for a 3rd and goal. I have no problem with Allen looking to get the ball into the end zone on that play.

 

The real issue is that on first & goal from the 4, Moss lost 3 yards on a run.

 

 

It says 3rd and goal right on the picture

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, BananaB said:

It says 3rd and goal right on the picture

Then that makes it even more imperative that Allen NOT throw the ball to Moss on that play unless we think 4th and goal from the 4 yard line is easy to convert.

 

 

[Big Blitz]

Where were the clips of the 118 *hidden* yards of penalties?

 

Still haven't seen replays.  

Edited November 11, 2021 by Big Blitz

[Old Coot]

I thought Warner's analysis of each play was good.  BUT he's looking at an overhead all-22 view & likely takes more than 3 secs to devise his analysis.

 

It's very different on field.

 

That said I think Josh does hold on to the ball too long.

 

I've wondered why other teams often get 5 yards on a safety valve pass to the flat while we get only 1-2 yards.  It may be that Josh holds the ball too long, lofts the ball too high or doesn't place the ball well.

 

On a related note, do the Bills run many timed passing routes?  WR takes a predetermined no. of steps, turns and the balls right there.  If not, why not?

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Where were the clips of the 118 *hidden* yards of penalties?

 

Still haven't seen replays.  

Finally saw first half replays of Williams and Klein unsportsmanlike penalties. Both did absolutely nothing illegal, pure phantom calls.  And Tavon Austin was the one who held Tre.

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Finally saw first half replays of Williams and Klein unsportsmanlike penalties. Both did absolutely nothing illegal, pure phantom calls.  And Tavon Austin was the one who held Tre.

No offense but what does that have to do with this video?  Control your controllables.  This video may seem nitpicky to some but it's how you continue to grow as a quarterback.

[JMF2006]

We all know he didn't have a good day.

 

He has proven he learns quickly and if the Jets try to use the Jags game plan Josh will pick them apart.

 

They better come up with something equally good but different or this game will end badly for the Jests.

[Jrb1979]

4 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

We all know he didn't have a good day.

 

He has proven he learns quickly and if the Jets try to use the Jags game plan Josh will pick them apart.

 

They better come up with something equally good but different or this game will end badly for the Jests.

Disagree. Miami did the same game plan the week before a help the Bills offense in check for 3 quarters. 

[MJS]

15 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Cover1 and Jim Kubiak and others often point out plays where they assert Allen's reads are deep-to-shallow.  If true, that may be a problem with play design.

That's normal, though.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, MJS said:

That's normal, though.

 

It's not abnormal, but the point is, if Allen is being coached to read deep-to-shallow, he's not at fault for passing up the immediate quick shots Warner points out.

 

And when the OL is struggling against pressure, it's time to change the order of the reads and hit the quick shot immediately.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's not abnormal, but the point is, if Allen is being coached to read deep-to-shallow, he's not at fault for passing up the immediate quick shots Warner points out.

 

And when the OL is struggling against pressure, it's time to change the order of the reads and hit the quick shot immediately.

Agree hapless. Couldn't understand what you meant yesterday but do now. Great post definitely agree.

[RoyBatty is alive]

17 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

warner is an old, bitter wet towel. its sad to see how jealous he is of JA17.

 

Oh come on, you cant be serious.  

[34-78-83]

I think what folks might be getting at a bit here is - in Warner's breakdowns of Josh's really good games (from last season), Warner does indeed sound extremely luke warm on Josh as a whole and I remember making a mental note of that and wondering why he sounded like that. I am pretty sure its because his very early analysis of Josh from like 2018 was that he could NEVER improve some of his issues. So its one of those Josh has blown up his narrative things. It's hard for people (even good people like Kurt) to be humble enough to give in to their previous narratives.

[JohnNord]

17 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

 

Allen really did struggle in the game. Kurt Warner does amazing breakdowns.

I thought this was a good breakdown of his performance.  It left me coming away with the need for Allen to balance opportunities to find “hidden yardage” as well as making the big play.  
 

There’s no doubt that Allen missed some opportunities to move the chains.  Though if he took the advice Warner gave him on every one of those plays, he be resigned to Captain Checkdown 2.0.  That’s not what we want out of Josh.  But at the same time, when coverage and situation dictates it, he does need to take those short throws.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I just feel like we could have hammered them with Diggs in this game and won.  

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

16 hours ago, mattynh said:

 

4.  Hearing a lot about cover 2/Tampa 2/2 deeps shell.....that seems like a general approach teams are using against explosive offenses...I am not an expert but again, sometimes this stuff is move counter move.  Something has to be there when you have talent and the Bills have the talent, figure it out....

This is the same thing our group of fans at the bar has been saying every time a defense employs the magical 2 deep shell defense.  There has to be a part of the field that is left open if teams are selling out to stop the deep hits.  You simply can't cover every player and every part of the field when there are so many weapons.  Getting Dawson Knox back will be a HUGE boost to busting this defensive strategy.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Disagree. I thought it was fair. Allen has a terrible game even factoring in line play. I don’t think that’s actually arguable.

 

Well, Allen would agree with you.  He didn't sit there distraught in his post game presser and say "I played like *****" (which I've never heard him say before) because he thought he had a passable game with a few mistakes.

 

14 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

This is kind of a false narrative. Warner has had complimentary videos about Allen in the past.

 

Eh, I don't think it was the reason for that video nor is it the reason I say I don't get as much out of Warner's breakdowns as I do out of some other.

 

But keeping in mind that I lived in St Louis through the "Greatest Show on Turf" days and the aftermath, like 2002 when Warner threw 11 INTs and fumbled 8 times in 6 starts then 2003 where he fumbled 6 times and threw a pick in his 1 start.....while his wife Brenda went on every radio show she could to explain that the team benched her husband because he's a Christian and they didn't like that (it was interpreted the same way as OBJ's father, being his mouthpiece)....I think it's fair to say Warner does ride a narrative sometimes.

 

And one of his narratives about the 2018 QB class was unquestionably that Allen was a big inaccurate jock who couldn't think fast on his feet, of a type that Warner saw preferred to him on multiple occasions during his career and is still salty about.

 

He also thinks his particular strengths are something every QB should be able to accomplish and if they don't, it means they're bad.  Because of his Arena Ball background, making lightening-fast decisions on where to go with the ball and being able to throw short passes with deadly accuracy while on a dead run were his bread-n-butter.   One way I think about it is that Warner has a "Spider Chart" in his brain mapping out his skills and strengths, and when he's evaluating a QB it's from the perspective of how well that QB fits Warner's personal "Spider Chart" as a QB.  But there are other aspects of QB play that Warner was weaker on, giving a different "Spider Chart" that can still indicate good play, and Warner seems to (in general) undervalue these.

 

Allen is improving, but accurate short passes have NEVER been his strength and are still a developing aspect of his game. 

 

Confirmation bias is a "thing", and I think it is likely that Warner looks for aspects of Allen's play that confirm his bias vs. taking a more objective view that factors in OL play and what appears to be the play design (deep to short sometimes, and that he may come off Diggs on a short route because Diggs was his first read IF he was being covered a certain way and not if he wasn't).