Athletic article: Will having fans back impact QBs play?

[BillsMafi$]

 

[LeGOATski]

It'll affect my TV-watching experience, that's for sure.

[Logic]

I think this is a very interesting question. 

Personally, I expect a regression from Josh Allen this season. Note, I'm not saying MAJOR regression. I'm not saying he's gonna be BAD. I think he'll still be very good and will still lead the Bills to the playoffs. I just expect a drop in completion percentage, passer rating, and touchdowns scored. 

I think the lack of crowd noise definitely contributed to Josh's success in 2020. The return of a loud, large, hostile crowd sure seemed to negatively affect him in the AFC Championship game. I just hope that the experience and confidence he gained from having such a great year will carry over, and he'll continue to be the elite franchise QB that he appeared to be last season.

 

[SCBills]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

I think this is a very interesting question. 

Personally, I expect a regression from Josh Allen this season. Note, I'm not saying MAJOR regression. I'm not saying he's gonna be BAD. I think he'll still be very good and will still lead the Bills to the playoffs. I just expect a drop in completion percentage, passer rating, and touchdowns scored. 

I think the lack of crowd noise definitely contributed to Josh's success in 2020. The return of a loud, large, hostile crowd sure seemed to negatively affect him in the AFC Championship game. I just hope that the experience and confidence he gained from having such a great year will carry over, and he'll continue to be the elite franchise QB that he appeared to be last season.

 

Ive mentioned a few times that the crowd noise is something to watch, but it is REALLY hard to take much from that KC game.   
 

Yes, he clearly struggled more with late clock call changes.  
 

However, we had no running game, an OL that was abused that day, and (what we know now to be) an incredibly beat up WR room.. every WR with a significant injury.  

[msw2112]

I don't think it will affect Rodgers.  He's a veteran who has made great plays, won a SB, and done virtually everything an NFL QB can do in front of full crowds.  Might it impact Allen, who had his breakout season with no/few fans, or Herbert, who had a great rookie year with no fans?  It's possible.  I can't speak for Herbert, but Josh is the kind of guy who works as hard as he can to overcome his deficiencies, so if crowd noise does negatively impact his play this year, I suspect that it's something he will work on until he masters it.

Edited May 26, 2021 by msw2112

[Logic]

42 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Ive mentioned a few times that the crowd noise is something to watch, but it is REALLY hard to take much from that KC game.   
 

Yes, he clearly struggled more with late clock call changes.  
 

However, we had no running game, an OL that was abused that day, and (what we know now to be) an incredibly beat up WR room.. every WR with a significant injury.  

Don't discount the possibility that part of the reason the OL was beaten so badly and so often is that Josh wasn't able to properly relay protection changes to them due to crowd noise. Sure, they were just beaten physically in many instances, but we also can't assume that an OL and QB that got used to being able to communicate clearly all year weren't suddenly a bit worse for the wear once that communication was negatively affected.

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

Don't discount the possibility that part of the reason the OL was beaten so badly and so often is that Josh wasn't able to properly relay protection changes to them due to crowd noise. Sure, they were just beaten physically in many instances, but we also can't assume that an OL and QB that got used to being able to communicate clearly all year weren't suddenly a bit worse for the wear once that communication was negatively affected.

All of your points in this thread are spot on

[Green Lightning]

It's going to affect all QBs to a degree. In his 4th year, Josh will be fine.

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I think this is a very interesting question. 

Personally, I expect a regression from Josh Allen this season. Note, I'm not saying MAJOR regression. I'm not saying he's gonna be BAD. I think he'll still be very good and will still lead the Bills to the playoffs. I just expect a drop in completion percentage, passer rating, and touchdowns scored. 

I think the lack of crowd noise definitely contributed to Josh's success in 2020. The return of a loud, large, hostile crowd sure seemed to negatively affect him in the AFC Championship game. I just hope that the experience and confidence he gained from having such a great year will carry over, and he'll continue to be the elite franchise QB that he appeared to be last season.

 

Ironically I read that during drill work today they were pumping in crowd noise. 
 

Obviously not the same but it seems like something they’re aware of and going to work through. 

[Dr.Sack]

Advantage at home, and if we can run the ball better on the road minimal impact. Allen is now a +4000yd +30TD QB. The dude is here to stay. 

[Patrick Duffy]

4 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Advantage at home, and if we can run the ball better on the road minimal impact. Allen is now a +4000yd +30TD QB. The dude is here to stay. 

Well yes, I think we can all agree on that

[wppete]

28 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

It's going to affect all QBs to a degree. In his 4th year, Josh will be fine.

Spot on.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

I think this could have a greater impact than most would anticipate 

[JESSEFEFFER]

Home/road splits for his career doesn't show a road problem:

 

[SCBills]

12 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Home/road splits for his career doesn't show a road problem:

 

His two biggest road games, prior to this year, were Dallas (he was phenomenal) and Houston WC Game (he was good in the first half and then fell apart down the stretch). 

[78thealltimegreat]

3 hours ago, BillsMafi$ said:

 

I could see it but Josh has shown the ability to adjust I’m sure they’ll implement things like silent snap counts and the like to adjust other then KC the Bills really don’t have a bunch of road opponents known for loud stadiums like say traveling to Seattle 

[Big Blitz]

You could put 200,000 Dolphins fans in Hard Rock Stadium he's still throwing for 375 and 4 TDs.

 

At home Josh lit up the Rams.  Did everyone see what the Rams D did to teams last year?  To QBs who were also at home or in L.A. where there were zero fans.

[BillMafia716ix]

Definitely could see it happening. I think the crowd noise affected Josh a lil bit in the KC game. Once he seen Mahomes was lighting it up. Josh started pressing. 

[cage]

I think he'll thrive on crowd noise.  He loves competition and the crowd just amplifies that.  This is a dead topic for me.  Its going to make him better!

[billsfan1959]

The question was "Will there be a statistical price to pay for Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert & others who lit it up on the road on 3rd-and-long..."

 

Josh Allen has been at the top of the league in 3rd and long passing the past two seasons:

 

                   Down/Dist  Cmp    Att    Inc    Cmp%    Yds    TD    1D    Int    Rate
2019          3rd & 7-9      14       27    13      51.85      168    2       8      1      80.5

                  3rd & 10+      26      44    18      59.09     361    3      14      0    108.2

 

2020         3rd & 7-9       13      24    11       54.17      183    2       9      1     89.4

                  3rd & 10+       21      27    6        77.78     259    0       11     0    106.6
 

I couldn't find the splits for 3rd and long on the road vs at home; however, I did see them somewhere and they were actually better on the road - as has been his overall play.  He threw for better Comp%, more Yds, more TDs, less INTs, higher Y/A, etc., etc., on the road vs at home in both 2019 and 2020.

 

And as for overall play, if lack of crowd noise was such an advantage, then why did no other QB experience an overall improvement similar to Allen? 

 

IMHO, I do not believe Allen will regress this year. I believe he will be even better.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

10 hours ago, Logic said:

I think this is a very interesting question. 

Personally, I expect a regression from Josh Allen this season. Note, I'm not saying MAJOR regression. I'm not saying he's gonna be BAD. I think he'll still be very good and will still lead the Bills to the playoffs. I just expect a drop in completion percentage, passer rating, and touchdowns scored. 

I think the lack of crowd noise definitely contributed to Josh's success in 2020. The return of a loud, large, hostile crowd sure seemed to negatively affect him in the AFC Championship game. I just hope that the experience and confidence he gained from having such a great year will carry over, and he'll continue to be the elite franchise QB that he appeared to be last season.

 

Allen was actually a better road QB in 2019, where you'd expect noise to affect the QB the most. 

 

2019 away

6-2

92.6 rating 

228 ypg

62%

7.36 ypa

18 total TD's 

4 fumbles 

4 INTs

 

2019 home (Includes final Jets game he only played a little) 

4-4

76.9 rate 

157 ypg (179 without Jets game) 

55%

5.72 ypa

11 total TD'S 

10 fumbles 

5 INTs 

 

In 2020 his stats were similar in that he was better on the road. His home and road stats improved but that is likely because of multiple factors, Diggs, experience, fans,... 

 

I think what affects Josh Allen the most is wind and elements. The road crowds really didn't affect him in 2019. I don't expect noise to be a problem for him. Yes he can get fired up but that's just being young. 

 

I do expect a drop in stats just because it's hard to average those stats every year. I think he'll end up somewhere between 2019 and 2020. 

Edited May 26, 2021 by Buffalo_Stampede

[colin]

imo allen's largest flaw at the moment as a qb is his nerves.  like favre before him, he plays with such juice that at times he can get tight or force things, we saw that in the KC games and the houston game in the prior playoffs.  crowd noise will play into that, but it kinda seems like he's a bit more in control (for the most part) on the road, likely because he doesn't put the same pressure on himself to perform for the home audience.

 

if he has full control of his mental and physical being on the pitch in year 4, it is going to be something else to watch.

[Greg S]

If this were Josh's first year with crowd noise I could see it playing a factor but this is his 4th year. The first 2 were played with packed stadiums so he knows what its like. If anything it will be an adjustment at the NFL level for guys like Lawrence and Wilson. Josh will be fine. Then you have QB's like Brady and Rodgers who would laugh at crowd noise as it wouldn't affect their play at all. 

[TBBills]

So one year without fans and this question pops up like there has never been fans in the stadium?

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

2 hours ago, colin said:

imo allen's largest flaw at the moment as a qb is his nerves.  like favre before him, he plays with such juice that at times he can get tight or force things, we saw that in the KC games and the houston game in the prior playoffs.  crowd noise will play into that, but it kinda seems like he's a bit more in control (for the most part) on the road, likely because he doesn't put the same pressure on himself to perform for the home audience.

🏆🏆🏆

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, TBBills said:

So one year without fans and this question pops up like there has never been fans in the stadium?

I agree. I don't quite get it either. 

[msw2112]

Allen made an unprecedented statistical jump in a season with no fans.  Some people think that there's a correlation.  Whether there's a correlation or not, I don't think the concept is that hard to get.

[Patrick Duffy]

3 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Allen made an unprecedented statistical jump in a season with no fans.  Some people think that there's a correlation.  Whether there's a correlation or not, I don't think the concept is that hard to get.

Also made that jump with one of the best WR's in the league and obviously didn't year before. I think that was reason and nothing to do with fans.

Edited May 26, 2021 by Patrick_Duffy

[Comebackkid]

I would think this would effect 2nd year QBs the most.    First year in the league and they never had to worry about communicating with noise or the pressure of fans.

Edited May 26, 2021 by Comebackkid

[teef]

17 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Ironically I read that during drill work today they were pumping in crowd noise. 
 

Obviously not the same but it seems like something they’re aware of and going to work through. 

this specifically mentioned that josh said this on sirius nfl this morning.  they've been pumping loud crown noises into the practices.  good move.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

19 hours ago, SCBills said:

Ive mentioned a few times that the crowd noise is something to watch, but it is REALLY hard to take much from that KC game.   
 

Yes, he clearly struggled more with late clock call changes.  
 

However, we had no running game, an OL that was abused that day, and (what we know now to be) an incredibly beat up WR room.. every WR with a significant injury.  

 

Don't forget the holding and late hits.

3 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Allen made an unprecedented statistical jump in a season with no fans.  Some people think that there's a correlation.  Whether there's a correlation or not, I don't think the concept is that hard to get.

 

Correlation does not equal causation though.  There were improvements in pass protection, addition of a top level WR, as well as personal adjustments to his mechanics which seemed to result in some improvement in his accuracy.  Year 3 is often when a QB starts to get it as well - I think Allen was solid in pre-snap adjustments in 2019, but the big leap was in post-snap adjustments this past season.  

[Bray Wyatt]

I don’t think the crowd noise is more a detriment to him than say any other qb. His first win in the league was that huge upset against the Vikings and the crowd there was pretty crazy.

 

as others pointed out his stats were better on the road in 2019 than at home (last year with crowds)

 

I think the opposing crowds and their cheering against him may make him focus better or make him more determined if that’s possible

 

whereas the home crowds may pump him and make him need to calm down some but who knows