Bills 2021 Draft - Overall Assessment

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I've been in and out of this thread since it started.  Haven't read everything.

 

While I was away, I had this thought:  How will you feel if in three years the Bills are starting two defensive ends, two tackles and a guard from this draft?  

Bad because either Dawkins got injured or his play fell off.  One OT and a guard would be fine.  Two DE would be fine also

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Bad because either Dawkins got injured or his play fell off.  One OT and a guard would be fine.  Two DE would be fine also

It would mean that Dawkins was expendable, because there was younger cheaper talent.   Losing Dawkins in that way is exactly how the Patriots lost talent year after year.   They didn't hold on to their talented people, they let them move on.   

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

Regardless of what the fans say/like, Beane did exactly what he said he was gonna do. He and Sean had a plan an they followed through on it, in a year or two when our older vets on the D & O lines are gone or near gone these quality picks will make paying Josh a whole hell of a lot easier to do, and still have quality players lined up to insure we are not a flash in the pan two year window team. Long term success is the goal. 

Who cares about a year or two from now.  Winning the SB is the goal now. Not a long string of playoff losses.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

Well said.  Cracks me up reading the complainers around here.  This is the most competent, professional front office the Bills have EVER had — and yes, I include the Polian era.

 

 

Your opinion and criticism of posters for expressing an opinion........when you don't really have your own regarding players drafted......... would carry more weight if you weren't defensive of every regime the Bills have had since Butler left.  

 

Instead this is just the 6th GM you've defended since then and the only one who the argument could even be made that they've done well. 

 

1 for 6.

 

That's a Gary Sanchez-esque .167 batting average.

 

[Just Joshin']

This looks like a modern NFL draft.  The priority is to pass the ball, protect the passer and rush the passer.

 

You also need to build cheap depth at expensive positions.  Pass rusher and pass defenders get paid.

 

So the first 4 picks setup the team in the future.  I would have liked a CB earlier but the value was not there.  Beane made good moves that will pay dividends in the future.

 

There is no reason to believe the draft was a failure.  Rating it low because the team did it differently than you thought is not a good reason. Pick a QB high or pick an injured player who will retire, that is a bad draft.

[Green Lightning]

2 hours ago, SCBills said:

Tough Draft to immediately analyze (as if any are). 
 

I think it was a very sound, strong Draft...

 

Made us bigger, more talented and deeper across the lines, took a speed WR/KR/PR and some secondary depth. 
 

Where the fan frustration can come in is that KC, CLE and all our Division Rivals seem to have gotten noticeably better.  
 

We have basically the same team, which continuity can be a huge positive, and while deeper - the Draft doesn’t address the fact that KC and Cleveland have more top end talent than us.  
 

We also need to hope the running game woes can be fixed in-house as the only changes are the additions of Breida and Tackle depth.  
 

I wouldn’t be shocked to see another big move between now and the start of the season.  

I have to agree with a lot of this. We have a solid roster top to bottom but far less elite talent than the Browns or KC and possibly Miami. Will our new Dline additions prove better than KC's Oline additions? We'll see. Team speed on D is also a question mark and until we can get off the field on 3rd and long I remain suspect on our SB chances.

[whorlnut]

35 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Its just a defensive statement. We make a move to get Diggs and its great move, we are in it to win it. We dont make the big move and it's you need to focus on the long term and follow the process. I can guarantee you the people that are saying they love this draft and it makes perfect sense, would be saying the same thing head we traded tons of picks and went the opposite route, but said we are in win now mode and needed impact players, the 3-7 round picks the next few years will never make the roster anyway, etc. etc. 

Nothing is guaranteed… When you were this close you have to try to win nowNothing is guaranteed… When you were this close you have to try to win now

[Peace Frog]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Big linemen aren't sexy picks, usually

Not until they start showing a little bit of leg.  Amirite?

[Peace Frog]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/teams?team=BUF&year=2021

 

 

 

 

I will never have a problem with adding bigger and/or better grade beef to either line.  If I've said it once, I've said it five or nine times: My wife was watching a game with me a few seasons ago (I think it was against the Colts) and she asked "Why does the other team's linemen look bigger than ours?".  I asked her "Which linemen, the offensive or defensive ones?"  She replied "Both lines."  From the mouth of babes...

 

Well, no more!  We've got some beef now!

[Motor26]

I went with B. Was fine with them doubling up in the edge players. Thought they should have gone corner in the 3rd. At least they’ve grabbed 2 tackles with high ceilings, fine with that in rounds 3-7. As long as Rousseau and Basham make an impact this year the draft was a success.

[Don Otreply]

15 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Who cares about a year or two from now.  Winning the SB is the goal now. Not a long string of playoff losses.

Damn, I forgot we have absolutely no other quality players on the team, you’re so right, there’s  no way the existing roaster could ever get back in the post season, should have relied on an unproven drafted rookie to put us over the top, yup, silly of me..., 

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Best draft of my lifetime.  They had a clear, sane strategy that makes perfect sense in today’s NFL where (i) you’ve got a franchise QB about to take up a big chunk of the cap; (ii) you need depth at premium positions (everyone does); and (iii) you did sober self-scouting to realize you weren’t affecting the passing game enough to beat your biggest obstacle to the Lombardi.  Super impressed with a well-executed PLAN.  This draft was the product of a clear strategic plan and I’ve literally been waiting decades to say that about this team’s draft.

Agree that Beane and Co. seemed calm and made picks they deemed neccessary to improve the Bills. Their track record on building a winner is proven.  For me, it was a pretty bland under the radar draft. I get the strategy and the plan. Yet, can't help but to feel unenthusiasted. I will trust Beane and the rest of the Bills scouting team.

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

I couldn’t quite grade it an A just because BPA and need didn’t always match up.  
 

But I’m happy Beane didn’t reach and took guys who might become good future starters.

 

Not a ‘sexy’ draft - no skill players in the early rounds.  But picking late, Beane stayed true to his board.

Edited May 2, 2021 by hondo in seattle

[Sweats]

Nothing wrong with shoring up the trenches

[Doc]

42 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Somewhat agree.  

 

If Oliver needs a NT next to him, he’s not what we thought we were getting, but he can certainly still be a weapon.   
 

Edmunds, I just don’t know... I’ll give him this year before I judge.  He has insane potential but is just so frustrating.  I do agree he could/should be used differently.  
 

Epenesa, yea, seems they messed with his body a bit too much.   Hopefully he’s in the shape he needs to be this season.  

 

I always figured Oliver needed a Star next to him.  And if the Bills had used Edmunds like the Cowboys use LVE, we wouldn't be wondering if he should get the 5th year option.

[section122]

Here are my thoughts:

 

1.  Back to back DE was surprising but I liked it.  Both players can rush from the interior and are huge.  The pass rush was sorely lacking last year, is an overly expensive fa position, and the 2 best are old.  The hope imo is that the Bills will pile on points and then pin their ears back without giving up beef on the line.

 

2.  Back to back ots is a bit different.  First there is a huge difference between 1st and 2nd vs 3rd and 5th rounds.  Williams played very well last year but is only a couple of years removed from major injury.  These picks are protection from having to play the fa ots they added.  Lastly, if they do develop, tackles can be traded for a premium as evidenced by the orlando brown trade.

 

3. 3 6th rounders and 1 7th rounder.  Every pick made sense.  Mcd has earned late round db trust.  He has proven either an eye for talent or a great ablitily to develop them or both.  Either way those 2 made sense.  Og and speed wr were positions most had pegged as an area of improvement.

 

The only position I was hoping for that didn't get a pick was 1t.  Love the high ceiling picks throughout.  This was such a different draft experience for me and was very relaxing, first time ever for that lol.

[Alphadawg7]

When we lost in 2020, it was because we lost in the TRENCHES.  Every single loss we were utterly dominated in the trenches by more physical lines.

 

Beane said enough of that BS, we are getting bigger, meaner, and more physical.  
 

This draft made a lot of sense.  And their are still viable options in FA to round out any holes they feel we may need to address it positions they want more competition at.

 

I gave them an A for this draft.  You win and lose in the trenches in the NFL, it’s proven over and over again, especially in the playoffs.  

Edited May 2, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Orlando Tim]

Clearly our front office believes our DBs were much less an issue than our ability to get to the QB. Our DBs will be even better if the DL gets to the QB in 2 or less seconds each time

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

When we lost in 2020, it was because we lost in the TRENCHES.  Every single loss we were utterly dominated in the trenches by more physical lines.

 

Beane said enough of that BS, we are getting bigger, meaner, and more physical.  
 

This draft made a lot of sense.  And their are still viable options in FA to round out any holes they feel we may need to address it positions they want more competition at.

 

I gave them an A for this draft.  You win and lose in the trenches in the NFL, it’s proven over and over again, especially in the playoffs.  

All true, but unless there’s injuries, this Starting OL is basically the same as last years Starting OL.  
 

The swing tackles on the sideline might be intimidating though. 
 

Defensive Line will definitely be another story.  We should see a very different unit out there now.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, SCBills said:

Where the fan frustration can come in is that KC, CLE and all our Division Rivals seem to have gotten noticeably better.

 

I'm a bit curious about the nuts and bolts underneath this perception.

 

KC kind of gutted their OL.  They made a huge splashy signing of a great guard, acquired a 1 year rental on a RT who looked good at LT blocking for a run-heavy team thru trade, signed a FA G, and drafted a C.  Assuming the C works out, they re-signed their RT and are getting Duvernay-Tardiff and Niang back.  I get it Fisher was injured, but I'm not sold on Orlando Brown as necessarily an upgrade for a very different kind of offense.  Everyone involved with KC hopes their line is improved now, but it's one of those "improved on paper, is it good on Sunday?" things.

 

Other than that, they lost some players and signed some players, where's the whoo whoo OMG better? 

 

Can someone walk me through the great improvements on KC and Cle?  Then in our division?

 

 

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, SCBills said:

All true, but unless there’s injuries, this Starting OL is basically the same as last years Starting OL.  
 

The swing tackles on the sideline might be intimidating though. 
 

Defensive Line will definitely be another story.  We should see a very different unit out there now.  

 

Not really.  Feliciano played only 9 games, hurt.  Ford missed the last 7 games and was being tried at RT and OG until finally settling in at LG.  They all didn't play together at any point.

[Victory Formation]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Ed isn’t a 1T.  He needs to play next to a true 1T to fulfill his potential. 

 

Do we really have 2 1Ts?  We sure didn’t have any last season. Ed played some....which should never happen.  Ever. 
 

Butler and phillips played a bit better down the stretch but I wouldn’t consider them to be viable starting 1Ts and meh backup 1Ts.  Butler is a 3T despite his size imo.  

 

We have no idea how good star will be and he’s out the door after this season of he’s not up to par.  We’d save over 4M on the cap by cutting him after this season. 

 

I don’t see why we wouldn’t bring someone to compete.  We have 472 offensive lineman now.  They preach competition at all positions and have held to that except for CB and NT.   No competition at either spots and very few under contract for ‘22

 

 

Let’s reevaluate after the June 1st cuts. I think Ertz is still in play as well. I could see a corner, a TE and a 1T somewhere along the way, at least before Week 1. Preseason will roll along, there will be cuts when teams trim down and so on so forth. It’s not like we have a ton of holes at this point.

[RichRiderBills]

My general vibe was this was a poor draft, and my gut here feels akin to the old drafts where we all rationalized your Duke Prestons and Derek Schoumans.

 

Bills needed to trade up to get Etienne , Hariss , or Toney as the playmaker to upgrade the offense. They failed here...or didnt bother.

 

We needed a first rate KR too, but didnt act on this till round 6.

 

Rosseau is an opt out player, and I'll make no bones about the fact that this generally turns me off.

 

Bills overthought things....

Edited May 2, 2021 by RichRiderBills

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

It would mean that Dawkins was expendable, because there was younger cheaper talent.   Losing Dawkins in that way is exactly how the Patriots lost talent year after year.   They didn't hold on to their talented people, they let them move on.   

 

Dude.  "Replace talent with cheaper talent" works at many positions, but that's not how the Patriots worked at LT.

They drafted LT Matt Light in the 2nd in 2001, and he remained their LT for 11 years, into his mid-30s.  Then they moved Nate Solder (a 1st round pick) from RT to LT to replace him, and he held that position down for 7 years. 

 

Obviously, they had a great team in 2018 and 2019, but I don't think you could call OL its best strength, and feeling that NE was "cheaping it" with the pieces around him is probably one reason Tom Brady moved on to hoist the Lombardi for another team last season.

 

You don't randomly have someone else play LT in place of your franchise LT (who is locked-up under contract for the next 4 years) after 3 years, unless said franchise LT is seriously injured (avert!) or just not playing well.  And even then, you've got a problem because in 3 years, if you got a guy you drafted this season playing LT and doing it well, he's in the last year of his contract and he's not going to be cheap any more.

 

I "get" your general point that teams paying a franchise QB have to develop and maintain a pipeline of younger cheaper guys to replace older more expensive guys, but you're taking it a bit too extreme.  That doesn't apply to all positions but QB.

 

[Bill Murray]

I’d venture a guess that if they knew they were going to get Basham in the second they would have gone elsewhere in the first, maybe corner, or it would have allowed them to move back out of the spot and pick up some goodies.  When it turned out Basham was there in the 2nd they stayed true to their board and took him as the BPA.

 

I like focusing on the lines and I like picking players with big upside late in day two and day 3 rounds trying to hit it big on one.  We’ll see how they develop.  If the WR from Houston can play fast in the pros, might allow then to move on from Andre Robert’s and redeploy the cap $s elsewhere.  
 

needed to get depth at safety as both Poyer and Hyde are 30 and that was accomplished too.  Solid draft getting so many high upside guys with what they had, but no surefire

impact players.  B that could turn into an A if the the guys develop on the line develop. 

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, Bill Murray said:

I’d venture a guess that if they knew they were going to get Basham in the second they would have gone elsewhere in the first, maybe corner, or it would have allowed them to move back out of the spot and pick up some goodies.  When it turned out Basham was there in the 2nd they stayed true to their board and took him as the BPA.

 

I like focusing on the lines and I like picking players with big upside late in day two and day 3 rounds trying to hit it big on one.  We’ll see how they develop.  If the WR from Houston can play fast in the pros, might allow then to move on from Andre Robert’s and redeploy the cap $s elsewhere.  
 

needed to get depth at safety as both Poyer and Hyde are 30 and that was accomplished too.  Solid draft getting so many high upside guys with what they had, but no surefire

impact players.  B that could turn into an A if the the guys develop on the line develop. 

 

I think they wanted Rousseau all along.  If they thought Basham was that good, they would have traded down at 30 and then taken him.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Dude.  "Replace talent with cheaper talent" works at many positions, but that's not how the Patriots worked at LT.

They drafted LT Matt Light in the 2nd in 2001, and he remained their LT for 11 years, into his mid-30s.  Then they moved Nate Solder (a 1st round pick) from RT to LT to replace him, and he held that position down for 7 years. 

 

Obviously, they had a great team in 2018 and 2019, but I don't think you could call OL its best strength, and feeling that NE was "cheaping it" with the pieces around him is probably one reason Tom Brady moved on to hoist the Lombardi for another team last season.

 

You don't randomly have someone else play LT in place of your franchise LT (who is locked-up under contract for the next 4 years) after 3 years, unless said franchise LT is seriously injured (avert!) or just not playing well.  And even then, you've got a problem because in 3 years, if you got a guy you drafted this season playing LT and doing it well, he's in the last year of his contract and he's not going to be cheap any more.

 

I "get" your general point that teams paying a franchise QB have to develop and maintain a pipeline of younger cheaper guys to replace older more expensive guys, but you're taking it a bit too extreme.  That doesn't apply to all positions but QB.

 

Thanks, but I doubt you're correct when it comes to McBeane.  We'll just have to wait and see, but McBeane have been very clear that every position is up for grabs every year.   Just because they like their left tackle today doesn't mean that he's a ten-year fixture.  Maybe I'm missing something, because Dawkins hasn't struck me as a HOF tackle, just a good one.   What protects players, long-term, for McBeane, is leadership.  If Dawkins is one of the four or five leaders on the team in three years, then it will be tough to move him out.  Otherwise, I wouldn't say that he's a sure thing.  

 

But I hear you point.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

My general vibe was this was a poor draft, and my gut here feels akin to the old drafts where we all rationalized your Duke Prestons and Derek Schoumans.

 

Would Pepto-Bismol help with that?

 

I think it's a poor take to compare the demonstrated quality of the talent evaluation at the end of Donahoe, or under Marv Levy or Russ Brandon as GM, vs. today.  I think the W-L record bears that out.

 

2 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

Bills needed to trade up to get Etienne , Hariss , or Toney as the playmaker to upgrade the oline. They failed here...or didnt bother.

 

No, the Bills didn't "need" to do that.  You wanted them to, because your assessment is that Etienne or Harris at RB or Toney at WR was the "difference maker" who would put the Bills over the top.

 

Obviously the Bills disagreed, probably because their scouting assessment of those players and their selfscouting of the team's needs differs from yours.

 

Now you might be right, and they might be wrong, but it won't because they "failed" or "didn't bother", it will be because their scouting and self-scouting are inferior to yours.  Which is possible, but IMO unlikely.

 

[Victory Formation]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

I think they wanted Rousseau all along.  If they thought Basham was that good, they would have traded down at 30 and then taken him.

Boogie should not have been there at 61. I don’t think Bills fans realize what they’re getting. Crazy value. Some mocks had him in the early to mid 20s. Obviously Rousseau was a huge steal at 30 as well. Notice right after Rousseau, two DEs came right off the board? Unreal value. Both were BPA. Buffalo is straight at DE for the next 5-7 years.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Think it's pretty clear that many of the picks by the Bills were made looking down the road.  In 2023 Williams will be the last year of his contract so replace him with one of the rookie tackles.  Same with selecting two DE's, looking beyond this year.  More than the past couple of years, seems a handful of the picks are either boom based on potential or could be busts, will see.

 

My only concern is roster slots for this year.  Can't see either Addison or Hughes being traded as who'd want their high salaries? Addison's salary is fully guaranteed to can't see him being cut either.  So how do you handle all the players on the line. To me the only ones who they'd have a shot at being traded are either Johnson, Phillips, or Zimmer, maybe the one FA they just signed?  Would they trade Epinesa??  To get traded you either need to be on a cheap normally initial contract, or be and extremely good player which don't think any of the current D-Line players qualify.

 

To make room I suspect one of the DE and one of the OT's they drafted will suddenly become injured around the end of August and be on the IR list all year.  Likely a paper cut or hang nail, something serious along those lines.  Sixth round and lower picks likely take a shot on releasing and placing on PS.  The one saving grace may be that many other teams will also be in same situation due to opt outs and teams who didn't play.

[Doc]

WRT to the Dawkins debate, it appears that the Bills can cut Dawkins anytime after 2021 and save money ($1.94M in 2022, $6.26M in 2023 and $10.3M in 2024, all pre-June 1st). 

[John from Riverside]

24 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Not really.  Feliciano played only 9 games, hurt.  Ford missed the last 7 games and was being tried at RT and OG until finally settling in at LG.  They all didn't play together at any point.

I would not discount Lamp here either....who might have a funny name but is athletic and a quality OL men.......

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

WRT to the Dawkins debate, it appears that the Bills can cut Dawkins anytime after 2021 and save money ($1.94M in 2022, $6.26M in 2023 and $10.3M in 2024, all pre-June 1st). 

Well, I can't imagine they'd cut him.  They might trade him.  I don't know what the cap consequences would be in a trade.  

[dgrochester55]

B 

 

I like  the positions that they picked.   The overall theme seems to be developmental players with high upside which means good long term potential but also a good chance for minimal impact from the picks in 2021.   Maybe not the most exciting, but it beats the drought years before Pegula took over when the strategy seemed to be reaching for a player in a specific position way too early because it was a position of desperate need that was not addressed in free agency.

 

My favorite pick was Basham in rd 2.  The only pick that did not impress me was the Spencer Brown as I felt there were better options available at the offensive line during that phase of the draft.  

Edited May 2, 2021 by dgrochester55

[NewEra]

29 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Let’s reevaluate after the June 1st cuts. I think Ertz is still in play as well. I could see a corner, a TE and a 1T somewhere along the way, at least before Week 1. Preseason will roll along, there will be cuts when teams trim down and so on so forth. It’s not like we have a ton of holes at this point.

Agreed.  My point was, just because a late rd 1T wouldn’t be a starter in 2021, doesn’t mean one isn’t worth drafting.  I don’t think one of these draft picks will be starting unless they move Jerry back to the right and Rousseau or Basham impresses enough to start on the left.  I really don’t wanna see Addison starting on the right side again

[Doc]

18 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I would not discount Lamp here either....who might have a funny name but is athletic and a quality OL men.......

 

Anyone is a possible competitor.

 

17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, I can't imagine they'd cut him.  They might trade him.  I don't know what the cap consequences would be in a trade.  

 

They'd only cut him if if play were to drop off precipitously.  Just saying that they're not hamstrung by his contract at all.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Agreed.  My point was, just because a late rd 1T wouldn’t be a starter in 2021, doesn’t mean one isn’t worth drafting.  I don’t think one of these draft picks will be starting unless they move Jerry back to the right and Rousseau or Basham impresses enough to start on the left.  I really don’t wanna see Addison starting on the right side again

 

 

I do think the thing with 1 tech DT's is that they don't have much value so if the Bills want one they should be able to do it cheaply and just about whenever they feel like it.

 

We discussed Snacks Harrison being out there.     Danny Shelton (2015 #12 overall pick) who is far better than Star Lotulelei had to settle for a veteran minimum contract with NYG this offseason.    Both of those guys are much better than Star Lotulelei and both may be on the street in summer.......or even after the first week of September when veteran contracts no longer have to be guaranteed.

 

When Harrison signed his big contract with the Giants it immediately, but very temporarily, skewed upward a market for top NT types from $4M up to $10M.   Harrison was almost a unicorn though.......he was rolling up 75 tackles playing NT!   Unfortunately Beane royally screwed up and bought Loturd at the top of the market.   Now these guys can barely give themselves away.    

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, nucci said:

How old are you? I'm not criticizing you or this draft and you can't know how the players will turn out but I've been around a long time and seen more exciting drafts

Exciting does not equal betterExciting does not equal better

3 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Pretty much agree with all your individual rankings...

 

Basham was a guy that I wanted us to avoid ... just think he is nothing special ... 

 

I guess at 61 rather than 30 I can live with it and hope I am wrong( wouldn’t be the first time..)

Boogie is going to end up being the player out of this draft that makes the most immediate impact you watch

[Richard Noggin]

The draft is not about addressing immediate roster needs, especially beyond days one and two.

 

That kind of needs-based thinking gets lesser teams into trouble all the time. Seems like everyone criticizing this draft class is doing so while looking at perceived holes in our roster THIS YEAR. The draft, when worked properly, is about continually building out a competitive roster, year after year. 

 

Guess what: it's a process.

[Aussie Joe]

20 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

 

Boogie is going to end up being the player out of this draft that makes the most immediate impact you watch

Fair enough...believe me I want to be wrong because I want the pass rush to be better