Excellent argument AGAINST drafting a 1st Round RB

[DCOrange]

8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Yet they leaned on the RB position to help them keep KC off the field

Which goes to show even with a bad running game and bad running backs, you can make it work well enough to win the Super Bowl.

[djp14150]

6 hours ago, Rigotz said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/offseason-research/teams-are-never-first-round-rb-away

 

This is a fantastic write-up on why Playoff teams are "never a first round RB away from Super Bowl."

Obviously, very relevant to the Bills and they are specifically mentioned in this article.

 

This also doesn't consider the draft capital we've already spent on Running Backs recently.

If you're one of the folks clamoring for Najee or Etienne, give this a read.

 

there is nothing earth shattering here.

 

in the past de add...

 

1 teams don’t draft RB in the top 20 picks. The reason you run them for 4-5 yrs and you let them walk replacing them.  You do t use 1sts for this reason.  You use firsts on players you hope to have the next 8-10 yrs.

 

2 teams are generally RB by committee where each back is different role. One might be a power rusher, other scat/ re river, and other a blocker/ short yardage.  Or you drift 2 similar backs and they are Aand B.

 

3. OL make the RB better.

 

It’s perfectly fine to take a RB late in the first round...especially if your current back may be gone in a yr. the 5 yr contract can be a cost saver vs resigning after 3-4 years if you drafted later

 

buffalo used 3rds in the last 2 drafts on RB. No reason to use a 1st.

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Which goes to show even with a bad running game and bad running backs, you can make it work well enough to win the Super Bowl.

 

The RB position accounts for 30-60% of an NFL team's Offensive plays.  So every team leans heavily on the position, by design.  I feel dumb pointing out how dumb it was to claim it's the least important position on the roster.

 

The other poster is intermittently conflating "the position of RB" with individual RBs.  This is why he embarrasses himself with his post.

Edited April 20, 2021 by Mr. WEO

[MrSarcasm]

17 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Derrick Henry was a FA, before he was extended by the Titans.  He was of course, the least important guy on that team,.

 

Why doesn't every team just get a Tom Brady, right?  What's keeping every team from copying this plan??

 

Rebuke?  You might want to look that word up.

 

 

Not in a meaningful way.  

 

You are right the Titans rode Henry all the way to the AFC wildcard game... oh wait. Lol

 

 

 

Past 8 Super Bowl RBs

Shane Vereen 
C.J. Anderson
Dion Lewis
LeGarette Blount
Sony Michel
Damien Williams
Leonard Fournette

 

Yeah these guys were/are better than Singletary and Moss. Lol

 

Rebuke- to criticize. Not seeing a problem here.

[Mr. WEO]

15 minutes ago, MrSarcasm said:

You are right the Titans rode Henry all the way to the AFC wildcard game... oh wait. Lol

 

 

 

Past 8 Super Bowl RBs

Shane Vereen 
C.J. Anderson
Dion Lewis
LeGarette Blount
Sony Michel
Damien Williams
Leonard Fournette

 

Yeah these guys were/are better than Singletary and Moss. Lol

 

Rebuke- to criticize. Not seeing a problem here.

 

I didn't criticize the Brady reference.  You twice listed him as an argument as to why the RB is almost useless.  I twice asked you why every other team hasn't just done what NE did.  What's stopping them??

 

As I said above, you are conflating the position with individual players.   The obvious point it that, even if your best RB isn't very good, your OC is going to be giving a lot of the Offense to him/them expecting positive results--otherwise, why don't teams with bad RBs just throw on every down?.  That makes it not the least important position on the roster.  You get that right?---when I put it like that?

 

No?

Edited April 20, 2021 by Mr. WEO

[MrSarcasm]

16 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I didn't criticize the Brady reference.  You twice listed him as an argument as to why the RB is almost useless.  I twice asked you why every other team hasn't just done what NE did.  What's stopping them??

 

As I said above, you are conflating the position with individual players.   The obvious point it that, even if your best RB isn't very good, your OC is going to be giving a lot of the Offense to him/them expecting positive results--otherwise, why don't teams with bad RBs just throw on every down?.  That makes it not the least important position on the roster.  You get that right?---when I put it like that?

 

No?

The Broncos did it -C.J. Anderson
The Eagles-LeGarette Blount
The Chiefs-Damien Williams

 

Last 3 SB Champs without Brady.

[AmishRifle]

I think the Pittsburgh stats and portions at the end of the article are more indicative of the Bills current situation.  I think you need a good O-line to improve our mid round running back talent with an eye on the balance between pass and run blocking.  I don’t think we want Josh becoming an immobile Big Ben.

[vincec]

Tough to see the logic in drafting a RB high when your backs run the ball 18 times a game. Better off looking for a TE or DE with that top pick.

[Mr. WEO]

17 minutes ago, MrSarcasm said:

The Broncos did it -C.J. Anderson
The Eagles-LeGarette Blount
The Chiefs-Damien Williams

 

Last 3 SB Champs without Brady.

 

That's only 3 SB rings--and 3 teams.  That's not what NE did.

 

And why do teams that have bad running games ever run the ball at all?  Why hand the ball over repeatedly to the least important player on the roster?

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Good post, but ... he had a whale of postseason on 2018. That always counts in my book. 

 

 

My favorite rookie stat combo of his was the 209 carries.........but only 7 receptions!

 

As @DCOrange said.........he's the definition of one dimensional............and in that one dimension his career average is just 4.3 yards per carry.......one degree north of the equator.

[MrSarcasm]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

That's only 3 SB rings--and 3 teams.  That's not what NE did.

 

And why do teams that have bad running games ever run the ball at all?  Why hand the ball over repeatedly to the least important player on the roster?

Least important position. Big difference. Let's be real here. Most teams do a running back by committee and wouldn't be doing this if it was such an important position.

 

Unless you are a top 5ish back in the NFL(Henry,Kamara etc) your value is about the same as your backup. No other postion is this the case.

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Great piece. Calling @BADOLBILZ ...

 

 

It does read eerily like a number of posts I've made here...........right down to referencing the 2010 rules changes that really made it a no-doubt-about-it passing league.

 

Despite the OVERWHELMING evidence that drafting a RB in round 1 is a terrible use of a nice resource...........there will always be those who insist that THIS ONE TIME is the exception.

 

 

[MrSarcasm]

2 hours ago, Pokebball said:

Maybe the Broncos with Terrell Davis 

So fairly recently then.

[Augie]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

This guy is in the running for the village idiot award...

 

I was hoping to run unopposed........   🤷‍♂️

[Orlando Tim]

Taking a RB in the top 10 is awful but not comparable to taking one at 30. We should take the BPA unless it is QB even if it is a RB. At pick 30 if we get 4 goods year of a RB I think it is a good value pick.

[dave mcbride]

56 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

My favorite rookie stat combo of his was the 209 carries.........but only 7 receptions!

 

As @DCOrange said.........he's the definition of one dimensional............and in that one dimension his career average is just 4.3 yards per carry.......one degree north of the equator.

Postseason, dude. The fans of good teams care about that stuff, and rightly so. I am not justifying the pick; just reminding people that the highest level games against the highest level competition actually matter. The fact that people don’t work those stats into their evals is laughable. Not directed at you, btw.

Edited April 21, 2021 by dave mcbride

[dave mcbride]

46 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It does read eerily like a number of posts I've made here...........right down to referencing the 2010 rules changes that really made it a no-doubt-about-it passing league.

 

Despite the OVERWHELMING evidence that drafting a RB in round 1 is a terrible use of a nice resource...........there will always be those who insist that THIS ONE TIME is the exception.

 

 

And LOL: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/20/dave-gettleman-prioritized-devontae-booker-thinking-giants-cant-have-too-many-running-backs/

[In Summary]

6 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

We went from a sh-t O line in JAs first season, to successful run blocking schemes the 2nd season that our RBs did very well with,  and then on to the start of the 3rd season,  to having Spain getting his head stuck in his azs and quitting on the team, then we had and continued series of starter O line injuries that went on for pretty much the whole season, and the blocking schemes changed during that same period of time, we pretty much never had all our starters playing together at all last season, on top of losing Spain, who was very good the year before, that’s what I’m getting at when I said some folk are ignoring what the root cause of our run game woes actually are..., without good run blocking RBs don’t do well, ya gotta fix what the problem is before you get the results you’re after..., some folk just don’t get this ..., 

Morse is a hit away from Feliciano moving to center and some assembly of Lamp, Ford, Boettger, etc. manning the guard positions.  

[Dr.Mantis_Toboggan]

I’d go DB or Edge if possible at that spot, take the positions who command the most $$$ in FA that way you get the best value out of the 5th year option if the guy is a keeper.

[MrSarcasm]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

 I think that we, as fans, really underestimate how long it takes to get back to even close to 100% from significant injuries.  

Exactly. I once sprained my ankle while hailing a cab for Mama Mia. I was out for about a month. It wasn't so bad though. I got a lot of crocheting done and was able to complete my ant farm.

[Nester]

I really like that RB1 and that RB2. 

I think that kind of threat will help Josh by making defenses hedge more. 

 

its a 30 pick, not a top 10. I am fine with it, (of course also fine with CB/DE/OL BPA)

 

 

 

 

[MrSarcasm]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It does read eerily like a number of posts I've made here...........right down to referencing the 2010 rules changes that really made it a no-doubt-about-it passing league.

 

Despite the OVERWHELMING evidence that drafting a RB in round 1 is a terrible use of a nice resource...........there will always be those who insist that THIS ONE TIME is the exception.

 

 

Well this time it is the exception because of multiple reasons, you know feelings and all.

[Billl]

9 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Why would you ever take a RB knowing that it's foolish to pick up a fifth year option when you can grab a good CB/OT/DE whose fifth year option you'll be thrilled to get? Avoid RBs in the first round at all costs and focus on positions where -- if the player is good -- the fifth year option is something you'll want to pick up. 

The 30th pick has a fifth year option. No one drafted after the first round gives you that option.

Fifth year options don’t hold much value anymore.  Stars demand extensions, and non-stars aren’t bargains at fifth year option prices. In the rare instance of needing another year to evaluate, franchise tags aren’t much higher and they come without the injury risk.

[Jay_Fixit]

10 hours ago, H2o said:

Yeah, but at that point Marshawn was using people as bowling pins in his Porsche and swiping tip money off of restaurant tables. 

While still being the best RB on the roster.

[Punching Bag]

47 minutes ago, MrSarcasm said:

Exactly. I once sprained my ankle while hailing a cab for Mama Mia. I was out for about a month. It wasn't so bad though. I got a lot of crocheting done and was able to complete my ant farm.

 

Ankle sprains can be deceptively bad.  I did it on a work trip, put an ace bandage on it and continued my trip.

A couple of years later I had issues with motor control in ankle.

Visited 8 different doctors, each gave different cause and treatment except one who called it psychosomatic.

Last doctor put me in a boot and I was almost crippled. 

Doctor had an MRI on it and discovered a cyst size of golf ball causing bones, vessels, ligaments. etc put everything out of alignment.

The cyst was removed but my ankle never fully recovered.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

https://analyzethis/JPB/sportysport/rolltide

 

I don't know what I think about this.

 

Analyst J.P. Butterworth III 

 

'2020 was a strange season for all teams ,but most especially the Buffalo Bills. Few teams of recent memory struggled running the ball all the while being able to pass with ease...'

 

He goes on saying...

 

'the Bills are one piece of the puzzle from the Super Bowl and that one piece is RB. Past Championship teams were aggressive in attaining Pro Bowl caliber running backs and were then rewarded for doing so. Will the Bills Mafia be breaking tables this Thursday or will they be rejoicing when pick 30 comes in for RB Najee Harris?'

 

 

Does he mean Pro Bowl caliber running backs like 2nd round pick Ronald Jones II?

Or is he trying to make the argument that former 1000+ yd back Leonard Fournette and former pro-Bowler LeSean McCoy were the difference for the Bucs?

 

Does he feel #32 pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire ought to have been a pro-bowler last year? Or is he arguing that former pro-bowler/all pro Le'Veon Bell (this season) and McCoy (last season) were the difference for the Bucs?

 

Overall, he keeps using that word "Pro Bowl caliber running backs"

I am not sure what it means to him

 

There are many teams of recent memory that have struggled to run the ball while being able to pass with ease.  Tampa Bay last year, the Falcons, even KC last year come to mind.

 

I would like an upgrade at RB, but I think the key to run improvement lies in the OL

 

[Rigotz]

10 hours ago, Bobby Hooks said:

I get it if we’re picking top ten, heck even top 25, but the 30th pick is basically a second rounder. I’d prefer going corner or edge but if Beane absolutely falls in love with one of the running backs I’m not going to lose any sleep over it. 

 

Sure, running backs have lost a little steam. But if you can get a truly good one it’s a serious game changer and would open up so many opportunities for Josh. 

 

No one is second guessing Clyde Edwards in Kansas City and I think we’re very similar to that Chiefs team in terms of its going to be very difficult for a rookie to crack the starting lineup. 

 

One of the things i like about this draft is that we’re not pigeon holed by “needing” any position in particular. It’s a refreshing change and I’m relishing the fact that we can actually afford to take the bpa. Do I think we’d like to fill some positions more than others? Sure, but we can actually trust our scouting and take a guy we feel great about as opposed to someone we feel lukewarm about. 

 

Ftr, I want Farley and Samuel jr more than either of the running backs. But again, I won’t lose any sleep if they go Harris or Etienne. And dare I say, I might be a little excited about it.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire sucked this year. I’m sure plenty of people are second guessing him.

[Rigotz]

8 hours ago, ticketssince61 said:

 

That is the "sunk cost fallacy"

 

We can't get those draft picks backs so it is irrelevant what we spent in the past

 

 

Or... we drafted these guys a year ago and two years ago, so maybe it’s simply not time to give up yet?

 

I’m familiar with “sunk cost fallacy” and you’ve misused it.

[Norcalbillsfan]

12 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

It no longer makes any sense to draft a RB in the first round. Teams, now including the Bills, have moved to a RB by committee approach and the trend will not likely go away. As Bills fans we have been blessed with the presence of some very special RB’s over the years. I think this has made some of us nostalgic for the good old days. They’re gone.

 

This is not to say that the Bills did not suffer last year due to a lack of a running game threat. I believe the situation has more to do with scheme and o-line than RB. 

Agree, I think the lack of speed and pass catching at RB hurt but with addition of brieda that's been addressed, but I have no issues drafting a speedy pass catching back in the late rounds either.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

Fifth year options don’t hold much value anymore.  Stars demand extensions, and non-stars aren’t bargains at fifth year option prices. In the rare instance of needing another year to evaluate, franchise tags aren’t much higher and they come without the injury risk.

 

 

While it's true that the value of the 5th year option has been diminished...........it's still important with key positions..........which is of course where you should be using your first round picks on anyway.

 

The most obvious example is Josh Allen.    That option definitely should be picked up.   Even if it were the same value as a franchise tag........it's not the franchise tag so you could in theory pay Josh his option and then pay almost the same money in 2023 on the first year you used the franchise tag on him instead of having that value escalate quickly the way it did for Dallas with Dak because they only had him under contract for 4 seasons because he wasn't a 1st round pick.

 

I get your point about THAT type of player being one you extend though............to which I would counter with a guy like Dion Dawkins.    Suppose he were a first round pick...........played as he has.......admirably at LT but wasn't a Pro Bowler or top of the league guy........having that fifth year option at LESS than the tag amount provides leverage to negotiate a more team friendly deal.   

 

 It's kind of the opposite of like what is happening with Tremaine Edmunds........he plays a lesser value position in the NFL.......collected a couple Pro Bowls despite not really being a top 8-10 MLB because all the stud MLB's are in the NFC........and now his option is worth more than he probably is to the team.  

 

 

[jlgarsh]

6 hours ago, Pokebball said:

Maybe the Broncos with Terrell Davis 

Marshawn?

[Nihilarian]

12 hours ago, WhoTom said:

I'm glad the Giants didn't know that a few years ago.

You n me both 😋

 

Still, the argument can be made for having a top RB.

 

Derrick Henry 2nd rd-Dalvin Cook 2nd rd- Jonathan Taylor 2nd rd-Aaron Jones 5th rd. Nick Chubb 2rd rd. Alvin Kamara 3rd rd. 

 

Its all about finding that diamond RB in the 2nd round...easier said than done.

 

 

[NewEra]

40 minutes ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

Agree, I think the lack of speed and pass catching at RB hurt but with addition of brieda that's been addressed, but I have no issues drafting a speedy pass catching back in the late rounds either.

Gainwell if he’s still available in rd 3.  Sign me up.  

[IgotBILLStopay]

13 hours ago, Rigotz said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/offseason-research/teams-are-never-first-round-rb-away

 

This is a fantastic write-up on why Playoff teams are "never a first round RB away from Super Bowl."

Obviously, very relevant to the Bills and they are specifically mentioned in this article.

 

This also doesn't consider the draft capital we've already spent on Running Backs recently.

If you're one of the folks clamoring for Najee or Etienne, give this a read.

Umm without a deep dive into the issue -prior to reading the article i can think of at least 3 instances where a playoff team drafting a RB in round 1 went to the super bowl in his rookie season - Chiefs (with Edwards-Helaire), Pats (with Sony Michel) and the Steelers (with Rashard Mendenhall). SO "never" is pretty strong no?

 

now I have skimmed it and they discount Michel and Edwards-Helaire's role in getting their respective teams to the Super Bowl, which is pretty lame.

[John from Riverside]

If the bills consider him to be the best player available.....then so be it.

 

I personally think it will be a corner

[Putin]

I just can’t see us taking a RB in the first round , this is a great CB class and we need  an upgrade at CB2 

[Doc Brown]

47 minutes ago, Putin said:

I just can’t see us taking a RB in the first round , this is a great CB class and we need  an upgrade at CB2 

Plus, I want my first rounder to see 90% or above of the snaps which is what we'd get with a true #2 CB.  It's kind of why I shy away from taking a chance on a DE in the first round who's only going to be in on 50 to 60% of the snaps or so in McD's defense.

2 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Still, the argument can be made for having a top RB.

 

Derrick Henry 2nd rd-Dalvin Cook 2nd rd- Jonathan Taylor 2nd rd-Aaron Jones 5th rd. Nick Chubb 2rd rd. Alvin Kamara 3rd rd. 

 

Its all about finding that diamond RB in the 2nd round...easier said than done.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Doc Brown

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

https://analyzethis/JPB/sportysport/rolltide

 

I don't know what I think about this.

 

Analyst J.P. Butterworth III 

 

'2020 was a strange season for all teams ,but most especially the Buffalo Bills. Few teams of recent memory struggled running the ball all the while being able to pass with ease...'

 

He goes on saying...

 

'the Bills are one piece of the puzzle from the Super Bowl and that one piece is RB. Past Championship teams were aggressive in attaining Pro Bowl caliber running backs and were then rewarded for doing so. Will the Bills Mafia be breaking tables this Thursday or will they be rejoicing when pick 30 comes in for RB Najee Harris?'

 

 

 

"Past Championship teams were aggressive in attaining Pro Bowl caliber running backs and then were rewarded for doing so," he says.

 

Is that how he sees the Clyde Edwards-Helaire situation? Fournette's never been a Pro Bowler. Does anyone think he's pro bowl caliber at this point? Ronald Jones was a second rounder. He had a good year but his first two years were far from great. I don't particularly see great RBs on SB champions till you go back at least to Seattle's championship.

 

EDIT: Ah, I see I'm far from the first to notice this was nonsense.

 

Since the link in the OP doesn't even work, this is likely a sophomoric attempt at humor of some sort.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Thurman#1

[colin]

meh, based on what i've read right here i kinda fade a top pick on RB, but if all the CBs, DTs, OGs, and DEs who the FO like are gonezo, and they think one oft these guys is a total day 1 beast, then it's not a terrible idea.

 

the one consistent think IMO is our FO values premium positions (pass rush, cb, qb, OT) and freak athletes over all else, so it would be out of character for us to grab an RB that soon, but id expect them to have to be just an insane physical specimen 

[Mr. WEO]

10 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

Least important position. Big difference. Let's be real here. Most teams do a running back by committee and wouldn't be doing this if it was such an important position.

 

Unless you are a top 5ish back in the NFL(Henry,Kamara etc) your value is about the same as your backup. No other postion is this the case.

 

I'll ask again, why do OC's run such a huge chunk of the Offense through the least important position on the roster?  Is a rushing 1st down less important than a passing 1st down?  What about TDs? Buffalo got 31% of it's 1st downs rushing last year.  KC got 29%. The SB champs got 25% of theirs rushing.   But the position RB is of minimal importance on the roster?  Why do they use it so much?  Simple question.

 

The Browns use a committee of Chubb (1067 yards) and Hunt (841 yards)---but to them RB is the least important position on the roster?  Go back in time:  late 80's Raiders--the RB committee of Bo Jackson and Marcus Allen.  Both not important because they shared the job?  Together they were not important ( "least important") for that Offense?  You like "1960"?  How about the committee of Jim Taylor and Paul Hornung?  Least important Packers HOFers ever? How about Czonka/Mercury Morris/Jim Kiick?  RB was the most  minimally important position to those "perfect" SB Dolphins, because they needed 3 of them?