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Excellent argument AGAINST drafting a 1st Round RB


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https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/offseason-research/teams-are-never-first-round-rb-away

 

This is a fantastic write-up on why Playoff teams are "never a first round RB away from Super Bowl."

Obviously, very relevant to the Bills and they are specifically mentioned in this article.

 

This also doesn't consider the draft capital we've already spent on Running Backs recently.

If you're one of the folks clamoring for Najee or Etienne, give this a read.

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Remember when we drafted CJ Spiller when we already had Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch? 

https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/offseason-research/teams-are-never-first-round-rb-away   This is a fantastic write-up on why Playoff teams are "never a first round RB away from Super

RB's have been steadily losing 1st round value for a reason.   I think most teams are starting to realize that - unless it's a generational type of talent - it's better to just improve the r

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RB's have been steadily losing 1st round value for a reason.

 

I think most teams are starting to realize that - unless it's a generational type of talent - it's better to just improve the run blocking.  

 

I'd be shocked if the Bills went RB after picking up Breida. I think their plan is to use the backs we have & just try to improve the line & blocking schemes.

 

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Wow, so many of those RBs drafted in the first turned out to be complete turds. Then you have guys like Gurley & Melvin Gordon who are basically over-the-hill despite just being drafted in 2015. I think Beane is too smart to go this route.

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It no longer makes any sense to draft a RB in the first round. Teams, now including the Bills, have moved to a RB by committee approach and the trend will not likely go away. As Bills fans we have been blessed with the presence of some very special RB’s over the years. I think this has made some of us nostalgic for the good old days. They’re gone.

 

This is not to say that the Bills did not suffer last year due to a lack of a running game threat. I believe the situation has more to do with scheme and o-line than RB. 

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1 minute ago, Brennan Huff said:

Remember when we drafted CJ Spiller when we already had Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch? 

Yeah, but at that point Marshawn was using people as bowling pins in his Porsche and swiping tip money off of restaurant tables. 

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Only because we were picking 30th thought maybe worth it like KC did last year, but Beane again has picked up nice role players including Breida for speed.  I walked away from that position and believe we need to meet need with BOA on our board.  As much as it’s commonly thought CB, DE, and maybe DT are the best places to take at 30, my guess is CB and DT quality maybe better than Edge.  Any would be fine with me.

 

A big nickel later in the draft, and maybe Beane pulls his magic and gets us on more TE.  I like the Hollister plan especially because there is cohesion with Josh at Wyoming.  My WAG is Josh was lobbying to seek him out.

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14 minutes ago, H2o said:

Yeah, but at that point Marshawn was using people as bowling pins in his Porsche and swiping tip money off of restaurant tables. 


It was still a luxury pick when we had many other glaring needs

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8 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

I might be in the minority but I like our RBs. 

I was actually pretty impressed by Moss later in the season. I think he's going to be a good NFL back for 3-4 years.

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I'm usually not about drafting a RB early, however at 30 if no RB's are drafted yet... I would be 100% fine with taking the RB1 after already setting franchise records in the pass game. It could unlock Josh to reach new heights with an actual run threat, and a potential home run hitting RB

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I get it if we’re picking top ten, heck even top 25, but the 30th pick is basically a second rounder. I’d prefer going corner or edge but if Beane absolutely falls in love with one of the running backs I’m not going to lose any sleep over it. 

 

Sure, running backs have lost a little steam. But if you can get a truly good one it’s a serious game changer and would open up so many opportunities for Josh. 

 

No one is second guessing Clyde Edwards in Kansas City and I think we’re very similar to that Chiefs team in terms of its going to be very difficult for a rookie to crack the starting lineup. 

 

One of the things i like about this draft is that we’re not pigeon holed by “needing” any position in particular. It’s a refreshing change and I’m relishing the fact that we can actually afford to take the bpa. Do I think we’d like to fill some positions more than others? Sure, but we can actually trust our scouting and take a guy we feel great about as opposed to someone we feel lukewarm about. 

 

Ftr, I want Farley and Samuel jr more than either of the running backs. But again, I won’t lose any sleep if they go Harris or Etienne. And dare I say, I might be a little excited about it.

Edited by Bobby Hooks
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3 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

I’d still go RB at 30 if Harris or Williams are there.   I’d also be fine with a CB like Asante Samuel Jr. who can play multiple positions.  

Why would you ever take a RB knowing that it's foolish to pick up a fifth year option when you can grab a good CB/OT/DE whose fifth year option you'll be thrilled to get? Avoid RBs in the first round at all costs and focus on positions where -- if the player is good -- the fifth year option is something you'll want to pick up. 

Just now, Bobby Hooks said:

I get it if we’re picking top ten, heck even top 25, but the 30th pick is basically a second rounder. I’d prefer going corner or edge but if Beane absolutely falls in love with one of the running backs I’m not going to lose any sleep over it. 

 

Sure, running backs have lost a little steam. But if you can get a truly good one it’s a serious game changer. 

 

No one is second guessing Clyde Edwards in Kansas City and I think we’re very similar to that Chiefs team in terms of its going to be very difficult for a rookie to crack the starting lineup. 

 

One of the things i like about this draft is that we’re not pigeon holed by “needing” any position in particular. It’s a refreshing change and I’m relishing the fact that we can actually afford to take the bpa. Do I think we’d like to fill some positions more than others? Sure, but we can actually trust our scouting and take a guy we feel great about as opposed to someone we feel lukewarm about. 

The 30th pick has a fifth year option. No one drafted after the first round gives you that option.

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45 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Only because we were picking 30th thought maybe worth it like KC did last year, but Beane again has picked up nice role players including Breida for speed.  I walked away from that position and believe we need to meet need with BOA on our board.  As much as it’s commonly thought CB, DE, and maybe DT are the best places to take at 30, my guess is CB and DT quality maybe better than Edge.  Any would be fine with me.

 

A big nickel later in the draft, and maybe Beane pulls his magic and gets us on more TE.  I like the Hollister plan especially because there is cohesion with Josh at Wyoming.  My WAG is Josh was lobbying to seek him out.

 

Exactly. I was in the "draft a RB crowd" but after thinking about it I now agree with the BPA strategy. Hopefully that aligns with our biggest needs. DT, DE, CB2, G, etc.

 

I think a good pass catching RB could put this offense over the top, but not in the first. 

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