Bills sign TE Jacob Hollister

[BLZFAN4LIFE]

19 hours ago, Boxcar said:

Wait a sec

 

A lot of people really wanted Dan Arnold. Hollister is just about as good as Arnold. I'm confused why people don't like this move. Ertz would've been nice, sure, but we didn't really need an elite TE. This is the tier of TE I wanted the Bills to sign. Wanna see the number but this is very nice on the surface. Knox isn't terrible. We don't need to completely replace him on offense.

 

You had me until you said Knox isn't terrible.

19 hours ago, Rubes said:

Best game for him last year was against the Bills...

 

40% of his highlight video was against us. 😀

[CincyBillsFan]

35 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm impressed ...I guess...that you're sufficient of a fan to have payed such careful attention to a TE playing on another team, especially one who started 2019 on the practice squad and 2020 buried on the depth chart/ST, so as to have a long duration of opinion on him.

 

 

Unlike Lee Smith, Hollister can actually run routes and cut and separate and stuff.  He can also one-hand the ball, which I'm not sure whether or not Lee Smith could, but DiMarco couldn't.

I actually think the Bill's running game missed DiMarco this season.  Hollister looks to be a replacement for both Lee Smith & DiMarco at about half the cost. 

 

It's actually brilliant on the part of Bean and Hollister having played with Allen in college is a bonus.

 

 

[Green Lightning]

20 hours ago, Rubes said:

Best game for him last year was against the Bills...

 

Every TE's best game was against the Bills.

[Maynard]

Living in Seattle and unfortunately watching many Seashat games, I always thought Hollister could be a pretty dang good TE.  He’s often injured however, so can’t say this was a great move. He’s friends with Allen though, so it was a low risk/cost flyer. I’m okay with it. 

Edited March 20, 2021 by Maynard

[Hapless Bills Fan]

53 minutes ago, BLZFAN4LIFE said:

40% of his highlight video was against us. 😀

 

You need to check out his 2019 video.  But I'm sure he got that extra pop to be playing against the team led by his former Wyo teammate.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 minutes ago, Maynard said:

Living in Seattle and unfortunately watching many Seashat games, I always thought Hollister could be a pretty dang good TE.  He’s often injured however, so can’t say this was a great move. He’s friends with Allen though, so it was a low risk/price flyer. I’m okay with it. 

 

Is he? 

 

He doesn't show up on the injury report for this season or last:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/2020_injuries.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/2019_injuries.htm

Pro-football-reference usually lists everyone who had an injury designation for a game, though I have found mistakes from time to time. 

 

AFAIK he spent the first 5 games of 2019 on the practice squad then was active for every game week 6-17.  After week 7, he played every game.

He was pushed down the depth chart behind Olsen and Dissly in 2020.  He seems to have been active for every game in 2020 and played ST.

 

Clearly the SeaSnakes thought they needed an upgrade or they wouldn't have pushed to sign Olsen, but they also felt they were a team that was gonna contend for a Championship so you can't blame them for thinking a guy with 3 1000-yd seasons in his past might be part of the improvements to take them there, not to mention a good mentor to raise the level of the younger guys.

 

[Boxcar]

13 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

Or anywhere else,..... So far.

Sanders could be a sneaky good shiny toy, even if not expensive. Watch some videos of his route running, it's amazing. We probably have 3 of the top 5 route runners in the NFL.

[BADOLBILZ]

11 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

Nice pick up but I’m thinking that there might be more to this signing. Looks like the Bills were a player for Ertz but the demand was too high, as much as a 3rd rd pick for a older veteran who is commanding a 8+M for the final year of his 5 year contract. I believe that Hollister was picked up not only because of Philly’s high demand for Ertz but also because Hollister fills a important capacity, replacing a combination  of Kroft and Lee Smith, 2 aging veterans that were adequate at best in their roles.

 

Enter Cleveland’s TE David Njoku. His 5th year option was guaranteed as of 4:00 pm Wednesday for just over 6M. He would be a great alternative to Ertz and he is much younger (24 yrs old) with a bigger upside. Cleveland is dishing out big money to UFA Austin Hooper, who they signed last March to a 4 year/42M contract and then drafted 4th rd pick Harrison Bryant a month later. The Browns have a awful lot of money tied up at this position. I can see the Bills trading Knox and a later rd pick, if not a 2021 pick then possibly a bit earlier of a pick in 2022 for Njoku. 

 

 

1) I don't think you understand how large that $6M cap number is for Njoku.    They can't spread that $6M out over two seasons like they did with Sanders.    And Njoku has zero reason to negotiate it down or spread it out.   It's guaranteed.   He will want to hit free agency next winter.   Unless you want to offer a guy who caught like 15 passes last year a long term $10M aav deal,   which is a crazy idea.    If the Bills were to get Ertz they would almost certainly extend his contract to get his first year hit down in the $3M-$4M range.      

 

2) Knox is not a stiff.  They are both great athletes......both large TE's and nearly identical in terms of speed and quickness measurements.  Njoku looks more impressive on the hoof but Knox has been more productive.    He drops too many passes but he's not as big of an overall enigma as Njoku.     Ultimately, they are both just players who seem to have a lot of upside but neither are finished yet........so trading Knox for a much more expensive and less productive version really doesn't add up, IMO.

[Logic]

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet. If not, I thought some might enjoy seeing it.

 

It shows that Hollister is an incredible athlete for the position, but undersized.

 

 

11 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1) I don't think you understand how large that $6M cap number is for Njoku.    They can't spread that $6M out over two seasons like they did with Sanders.    And Njoku has zero reason to negotiate it down or spread it out.   It's guaranteed.   He will want to hit free agency next winter.   Unless you want to offer a guy who caught like 15 passes last year a long term $10M aav deal,   which is a crazy idea.    If the Bills were to get Ertz they would almost certainly extend his contract to get his first year hit down in the $3M-$4M range.      

 

2) Knox is not a stiff.  They are both great athletes......both large TE's and nearly identical in terms of speed and quickness measurements.  Njoku looks more impressive on the hoof but Knox has been more productive.    He drops too many passes but he's not as big of an overall enigma as Njoku.     Ultimately, they are both just players who seem to have a lot of upside but neither are finished yet........so trading Knox for a much more expensive and less productive version really doesn't add up, IMO.

Good post.

 

Serious question: why are there so many spaces and dot dot dots between your sentences?

[BADOLBILZ]

32 minutes ago, Boxcar said:

Sanders could be a sneaky good shiny toy, even if not expensive. Watch some videos of his route running, it's amazing. We probably have 3 of the top 5 route runners in the NFL.

 

 

The problem with the Bills WR corps,  as I see it,  is precisely what people call it's great strength........that they have 3 guys that excel in the same areas.......specifically snapping off short to intermediate routes.   Davis has more potential in contested situations down field but I'm not expecting him to be enough to change the way defenses attack the Bills.

 

What they have at WR x and 0 wise is a lot like having two RB's of the same speed and quickness that can't get to the edge.........it helps the defense gameplan and focus their energy on what works when knowing that they don't have to defend the entire field.   

 

Traditionally there are two ways to naturally free up your outside WR's so defenses don't squat on their routes:

 

1) Have one great deep ball WR that defenses fear enough to keep the safeties backed off.    Speed scares defenses.   Big and fast even more.

 

2) Or have a great seam stretching TE who can draw the safeties to the middle of the field.

 

Ideally you are like the Chiefs and have both.

 

If the Bills want to move the ball throwing it 8-12 yards in the air all day to 3 dudes who excel at that.........defenses will gladly take their chances with that as opposed to getting beaten over the top.

 

 

 

Edited March 20, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[JGMcD2]

8 minutes ago, Logic said:

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet. If not, I thought some might enjoy seeing it.

 

It shows that Hollister is an incredible athlete for the position, but undersized.

 

 

Good post.

 

Serious question: why are there so many spaces and dot dot dots between your sentences?

I think @BADOLBILZlearned how to type on a typewriter... that was the old rule there. Double space after a period. 
 

The “...” or ellipses are like a comma... show a pause in speech or thought...  I use them a lot too haha 

 

I’ll add I agree with Badol on his last two posts. World might be coming to an end. 

Edited March 20, 2021 by JGMcD2

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

I think @BADOLBILZlearned how to type on a typewriter... that was the old rule there. Double space after a period. 
 

The “...” or ellipses are like a comma... show a pause in speech or thought...  I use them a lot too haha 

 

I’ll add I agree with Badol on his last two posts. World might be coming to an end. 

 

 

Exactly on the punctuation and spacing.   I learned to keyboard on a computer but I also used manual and word processing typewriters some as well.   For people over 40 it's a lot more natural to read that spacing and the demographic here is heavy toward people over 40.

 

Most website articles nowadays have large fonts and lot's of spacing to make them less tiring to read.........that can be annoying having to physically scroll thru.

 

Here I assume people are keeping the type small and tight and just address the legibility and tenor of the thought in other ways.

 

I tend to use a lot of single sentence "paragraphs" too because there are a lot of people on here who see a condensed paragraph and think........nah, not sifting thru that.   Me being one of them.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Dammit, Beane! Should've signed Abercrombie

[ColoradoBills]

I guess we will see what Hollister is all about during camp.

As to the Lee Smith replacement I don't think he is that.

Nate Becker has the size to be that and he has been with the Bills for 2 years now.

6'5" 264 is what he is listed at and adding a few more pounds could make him a perfect sized blocking TE.

I hope it works out that way.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

This guy is 10 times the athlete Lee is, he’s just another athletic TE for the mix. 
 

Here’s to a 65 catch season!

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The problem with the Bills WR corps,  as I see it,  is precisely what people call it's great strength........that they have 3 guys that excel in the same areas.......specifically snapping off short to intermediate routes.   Davis has more potential in contested situations down field but I'm not expecting him to be enough to change the way defenses attack the Bills.

 

What they have at WR x and 0 wise is a lot like having two RB's of the same speed and quickness that can't get to the edge.........it helps the defense gameplan and focus their energy on what works when knowing that they don't have to defend the entire field.   

 

Traditionally there are two ways to naturally free up your outside WR's so defenses don't squat on their routes:

 

1) Have one great deep ball WR that defenses fear enough to keep the safeties backed off.    Speed scares defenses.   Big and fast even more.

 

2) Or have a great seam stretching TE who can draw the safeties to the middle of the field.

 

Ideally you are like the Chiefs and have both.

 

If the Bills want to move the ball throwing it 8-12 yards in the air all day to 3 dudes who excel at that.........defenses will gladly take their chances with that as opposed to getting beaten over the top.

 

 

 

 

The difference is that all 3: Diggs, Sanders, and Davis have plenty of speed to threaten teams deep.  All three have shown an ability to run every route in the tree and they all have more than enough speed to get behind a secondary.  
 

Last year with Brown - the Bills had 1 speed guy in Brown, 1 route runner in Diggs, and a rookie in Davis that was forced more into the John Brown role due to injuries.

 

What the threesome of Diggs, Davis, and Sanders gives you - is the ability to totally mix and match routes throughout the entire defense - across layers.  Diggs and Sanders can both play outside or in the slot.  Davis can flip to either outside receiver.  That means the Bills can force teams to dictate double coverage and give Josh easy reads.  
 

We also know Diggs and Sanders can both run precision routes out of both the slot or the outside and either can get deep to draw coverage - opening areas underneath.  
 

So yes they lose some speed, but I think they have 3 guys that can now threaten the defense and mix and match routes to coverages.  Plus Beasley is slippery underneath and to come back to the thread - Hollister gives them the H back presence to block and slip out.  They used that with Knox, but he was not that comfortable and his blocking was suspect at times because he was thinking about the route.

 

I think the offense as set now can be significantly better than last years in terms of control and getting open.  I don’t know if they will score more, but I think they can be the type of offense to dominate teams because they can roll more weapons than you can cover.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

The difference is that all 3: Diggs, Sanders, and Davis have plenty of speed to threaten teams deep.  All three have shown an ability to run every route in the tree and they all have more than enough speed to get behind a secondary.  
 

Last year with Brown - the Bills had 1 speed guy in Brown, 1 route runner in Diggs, and a rookie in Davis that was forced more into the John Brown role due to injuries.

 

What the threesome of Diggs, Davis, and Sanders gives you - is the ability to totally mix and match routes throughout the entire defense - across layers.  Diggs and Sanders can both play outside or in the slot.  Davis can flip to either outside receiver.  That means the Bills can force teams to dictate double coverage and give Josh easy reads.  
 

We also know Diggs and Sanders can both run precision routes out of both the slot or the outside and either can get deep to draw coverage - opening areas underneath.  
 

So yes they lose some speed, but I think they have 3 guys that can now threaten the defense and mix and match routes to coverages.  Plus Beasley is slippery underneath and to come back to the thread - Hollister gives them the H back presence to block and slip out.  They used that with Knox, but he was not that comfortable and his blocking was suspect at times because he was thinking about the route.

 

I think the offense as set now can be significantly better than last years in terms of control and getting open.  I don’t know if they will score more, but I think they can be the type of offense to dominate teams because they can roll more weapons than you can cover.

 

I disagree with your first sentence:

 

Diggs has the speed to get deep occasionally......he was a 4.46 at the combine....... but he's not a 4.35 nine route runner..........it's not the kind of straight line speed that is going to make defenses play off and away from his strength which is working short to intermediate routes.

 

Sanders and Beasley have at best average long speed for their spots and limited YAC ability(and are going to be a year older at an age when that might matter).

 

Beasley definitely isn't going to be a field stretcher.......he has NEVER threatened teams deep.

 

Sanders basically just caught the ball and fell down or was immediately tackled in New Orleans last year.    People want to excuse the lack of big plays because of Brees but when he got the ball in his hands he didn't show the juice he used to have in getting away.  

 

I'm not saying they won't be good........but it's a concern.    Remember,  this offense was all new to the NFL last year.   In the playoffs their receivers did not have much success and it hurt them not having the speed to make the Chiefs play more conservatively on defense.     Beane indicated as much after the season.

 

The reason they say building a WR corps is like building a basketball team is because you want to make sure you have different skill sets.   The Bills WR corps seems to have a lot of duplication.  

 

 

[Success]

A few days in, I think we might feel better if the OP title was "Bills sign TE Jacob Hollister!!!!!!"

 

Food for thought for next time.

 

[Boxcar]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The problem with the Bills WR corps,  as I see it,  is precisely what people call it's great strength........that they have 3 guys that excel in the same areas.......specifically snapping off short to intermediate routes.   Davis has more potential in contested situations down field but I'm not expecting him to be enough to change the way defenses attack the Bills.

 

What they have at WR x and 0 wise is a lot like having two RB's of the same speed and quickness that can't get to the edge.........it helps the defense gameplan and focus their energy on what works when knowing that they don't have to defend the entire field.   

 

Traditionally there are two ways to naturally free up your outside WR's so defenses don't squat on their routes:

 

1) Have one great deep ball WR that defenses fear enough to keep the safeties backed off.    Speed scares defenses.   Big and fast even more.

 

2) Or have a great seam stretching TE who can draw the safeties to the middle of the field.

 

Ideally you are like the Chiefs and have both.

 

If the Bills want to move the ball throwing it 8-12 yards in the air all day to 3 dudes who excel at that.........defenses will gladly take their chances with that as opposed to getting beaten over the top.

 

 

 

You're totally right. Beasley, Diggs and Sanders all do exactly the same thing. We should have got a fast guy who sucks at running routes, like John Ross. I can't remember Diggs or Davis catching any deep passes.

[Norcalbillsfan]

On 3/19/2021 at 12:00 PM, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I think this guy nails it.  I jumped to the conclusion that he was a kroft replacement but this might be more about improving the running game.  Especially the H-back stuff.  And for the record Hollister is a much better receiver then Smith was.  I've seen him make some great catches over the years.

 

 

Not too mention he helps the run game for little cap space. And he's definitely gonna buy into the culture in buffalo

[John from Riverside]

 

[John from Riverside]

On 3/19/2021 at 12:18 PM, JoPoy88 said:

I agree with the Cover 1 guy this seems more of a lee smith replacement than anything else.

Lee Smith if you actually through it to him more and he could actually run with the ball

On 3/19/2021 at 12:35 PM, mjt328 said:

Sounds like a flexible piece, who will push Reggie Gilliam in the H-Back role.

 

I doubt he is being considered as the starter, and this doesn't stop us from pursuing Zach Ertz.

Why not?  He was a starter for Seattle

[John from Riverside]

On 3/19/2021 at 1:05 PM, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Knox, Hollister, Gilliam, Sweeney is a full room. It might not be as dynamic as we'd like, but it's a full room and a decent room. Probably a bit better than last year.

 

Need to add a dynamic speed weapon somewhere, whether it's at RB, WR, or TE. And we need McKenzie back.

Why I want Sweeney to stick he has had health issues.....Reggie G. was an undrafted guy who didnt do a lot with his opportunity.

 

I am thinking there are bodies in this room....but some of those guys will not be there at the start of the season.

On 3/19/2021 at 1:18 PM, BillnutinHouston said:

 

They called Beane's.

How do you figure

[John from Riverside]

On 3/19/2021 at 1:22 PM, ScottLaw said:

Yea... don't really get the "run it back" approach when you got beat soundly by the team you need to overtake to win the conference.

That team barely made it into the AFC Championship game.....there is a lot that can happen on the way to the AFC Championship game next year.

 

Lets just get there.......there are other things we can do to match up with chiefs

 

We already changed out a WR that struggled getting pressed off the line with a vet WR that wins against press 75 percernt of the time.

We still have the draft

Our starting OL barely played together last year

Oh....and players to do get better

 

To do all this crying when you were literally one game from the Super Bowl with a totally diminished defense from the year prior....Scott....just stop man

[John from Riverside]

On 3/19/2021 at 2:00 PM, BuffaloBills1998 said:

Eagles aren’t going to budge, they want a 3rd round pick and Ertz at this point in his career is worth no more than 5-6th round pick. If Beane trades a 3rd for him he would be overpaying completely. And I’m sure Beane knows that your better off drafting someone. My opinion I would’ve liked to see them get Cook instead before the chargers got him

The eagles are in a bad position cap wise...they absolutely could budge.....right now the bills are bidding against themselves....beane knows it....so he has moved on.  He probably has an offer on the table.

[machine gun kelly]

16 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The problem with the Bills WR corps,  as I see it,  is precisely what people call it's great strength........that they have 3 guys that excel in the same areas.......specifically snapping off short to intermediate routes.   Davis has more potential in contested situations down field but I'm not expecting him to be enough to change the way defenses attack the Bills.

 

What they have at WR x and 0 wise is a lot like having two RB's of the same speed and quickness that can't get to the edge.........it helps the defense gameplan and focus their energy on what works when knowing that they don't have to defend the entire field.   

 

Traditionally there are two ways to naturally free up your outside WR's so defenses don't squat on their routes:

 

1) Have one great deep ball WR that defenses fear enough to keep the safeties backed off.    Speed scares defenses.   Big and fast even more.

 

2) Or have a great seam stretching TE who can draw the safeties to the middle of the field.

 

Ideally you are like the Chiefs and have both.

 

If the Bills want to move the ball throwing it 8-12 yards in the air all day to 3 dudes who excel at that.........defenses will gladly take their chances with that as opposed to getting beaten over the top.

 

 

 

You make some good points Badolz, but consider the following.

 

yards per attempt 2020.

 

Houston 8.3/ attempt

Minnesota 7.8

GB 7.7

Vegas 7.7

KC 7.6

Buffalo. 7.5

 

Now we can parse to passes over 20, over 40, amd so on, but using this simple stat, three teams above us weren’t in the playoffs.  Most likely because they were playing from behind.  Hollister is a cheap way to manage losing Smith and Kroft.

 

Would it have been nice to get Ertz, Rudolph, Gronk, sure, but they were too expensive.

[BobbyC81]

On 3/19/2021 at 11:55 AM, hskong said:

And Wyoming

So, who was their RB?

[OrtonHearsaWho]

I just have to say, I absolutely love being a Bills fan...19 freaking pages of discussion about Jacob Hollister!!  

[Mountain Man]

On 3/19/2021 at 7:20 PM, Aussie Joe said:

The Chiefs don’t care paying $80m for a guard 

And? They had the space to, just as the Bills did. They chose a FA, the Bills chose 3 key starters. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

The problem with the Bills WR corps,  as I see it,  is precisely what people call it's great strength........that they have 3 guys that excel in the same areas.......specifically snapping off short to intermediate routes.   Davis has more potential in contested situations down field but I'm not expecting him to be enough to change the way defenses attack the Bills.

 

What they have at WR x and 0 wise is a lot like having two RB's of the same speed and quickness that can't get to the edge.........it helps the defense gameplan and focus their energy on what works when knowing that they don't have to defend the entire field.   

 

Traditionally there are two ways to naturally free up your outside WR's so defenses don't squat on their routes:

 

1) Have one great deep ball WR that defenses fear enough to keep the safeties backed off.    Speed scares defenses.   Big and fast even more.

 

2) Or have a great seam stretching TE who can draw the safeties to the middle of the field.

 

Ideally you are like the Chiefs and have both.

 

If the Bills want to move the ball throwing it 8-12 yards in the air all day to 3 dudes who excel at that.........defenses will gladly take their chances with that as opposed to getting beaten over the top.

 

Good post.  Up front, I have been disappointed that the Bills didn't move to add the "speed" they talked about as a gap after the AFCCG, nor the level-up at TE.

 

I am also under-impressed by Njoku.

 

That said:

I don't have access to the kind of advanced statistical services that would break this down, but I don't think Daboll and Chad Hall would agree that Diggs can't handle contested catches downfield against most DBs and teams.  He can and does.  Three lines of evidence:

1) Vikes.  How he was used in Minn, especially in 2019 when he had 17.9 YPR, 73% of it YBC.  He has been used as a downfield threat.  In fact when the Bills made the trade, pundits a-plenty were opining that's why we got him.

2) How DBs play him - a bit of film persuades that most are 100% concerned about letting him by them and he is able to exploit that concern to get open on shorter routes.   I think he'd still get open anyway, but some of the spectacular ankle-breaking we see from Diggs seems driven by "don't let him downfield" DB angst. (Hopefully Sanders can still throw down that threat because exploiting that concern is a help to Diggs).

3) Look at the NFL advanced stats charts for Diggs and the routes he ran in the games that are still up there.   He is running deep routes and making some catches.

 

Now - Diggs doesn't have tip-top speed and there are some corners who can hang with him, obviously not true of Tyreek Hill who can beat anyone.  Diggs has to get a move on the guy and take off, vs just taking off.  But he does, and he does make those contested catches.

 

A few thoughts, kind of spitballing:

1) I don't think the Bills have confidence in the deep ball as a premier weapon for Josh just yet.  He improved to average or above average, but I think a deeper dive would show that most of the improvement is in the 20-40 yd throws, not the true deep bombs.  You can also kind of see that in the passer stats - Josh is now top-5 in 20+ yd throws but only top-10 or so in 40+ yd throws   Chicken/egg - is that because he can't reliably hook up with the WR in that range, or because he doesn't have a guy who can get down there and get open, fast enough?

2) We brought back our OL, which I considered "good not great" for pass protection.  Deep plays are long developing plays.  Maybe the Bills are being strategic about "where can we add one moderately priced guy who can make a difference"? and the decision is it's easier to add a guy who can get open fast on those short to intermediate routes, than it is to revamp the OL for great pass protection AND add a speedster who is able to quickly develop as a proficient NFL WR  (not a Jonny one note), given the limited cap.

3) I do think the Bills were strategic in bringing in Hollister.  I see him as a Knox-type guy, less athletic potential and better football resume to date.  I think that could be a needed "shot across the bow" to Knox "nothing is given, everything is earned"

4) On the speed back who can get to the edge thing....except for the very very top guys, it seems to me most of them still rely upon getting a block from the WR and TE, and that was, mmm, kinda spotty last year.

Anyway, good post and I hope the Bills will address this in the draft and possibly the remainder of FA, because so far there's a gap between what were identified as needs post-season and what the Bills have done.

 

I guess one last thought.  Unless they can fill the rotation with young guys, I feel that the insistence on a full (and expensive) rotation of DLmen is unsustainable.  The ROI for our DL just sucks, and is hampering team-building efforts elsewhere.

[HOUSE]

59 minutes ago, OrtonHearsaWho said:

I just have to say, I absolutely love being a Bills fan...19 freaking pages of discussion about Jacob Hollister!!  

 

It was an amazing addition by Brandon Beane. The entire NFL is still in a buzz

[BrownNgold]

5 hours ago, ColeB said:

So, who was their RB?

At Wyoming in 2016?

 

The answer would be Wyoming's all time rush leader

 

Also known as Brian Hill rb for the Atlanta Falcons.

[Rocket94]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Come on John. That team barely struggled to close it out in the divisional game because Mahomes got knocked out of the game. 

 

The point is the Chiefs roster is superior to ours and we haven't done much of anything to even the playing field. 

 

Agree that some players should improve, but who's to say that won't happen with the Chiefs as well? 

 

And what diminished defense? 

And other teams will be coming at us even harder! The Colts and Chiefs laid out the blueprint for beating us!

[BADOLBILZ]

14 hours ago, Boxcar said:

You're totally right. Beasley, Diggs and Sanders all do exactly the same thing. We should have got a fast guy who sucks at running routes, like John Ross. I can't remember Diggs or Davis catching any deep passes.

 

 

I'm not thinking of a guy like John Ross.........more like a legitimate, producing NFL WR but with more of a skill set that complements that of Diggs and Beasley...........Sanders game is redundant.

 

I've seen enough football to know that this is the exact thing that turns into an in-season lament.    And we just saw what happens when you can't use the whole field in that AFCCG.......and to an extent the entire playoff run on offense.        

[Rocket94]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm not thinking of a guy like John Ross.........more like a legitimate, producing NFL WR but with more of a skill set that complements that of Diggs and Beasley...........Sanders game is redundant.

 

I've seen enough football to know that this is the exact thing that turns into an in-season lament.    And we just saw what happens when you can't use the whole field in that AFCCG.......and to an extent the entire playoff run on offense.        

How easily we forget! The Colt's nearly took us out!

[Motorin']

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good post.  Up front, I have been disappointed that the Bills didn't move to add the "speed" they talked about as a gap after the AFCCG, nor the level-up at TE.

 

I am also under-impressed by Njoku.

 

That said:

I don't have access to the kind of advanced statistical services that would break this down, but I don't think Daboll and Chad Hall would agree that Diggs can't handle contested catches downfield against most DBs and teams.  He can and does.  Three lines of evidence:

1) Vikes.  How he was used in Minn, especially in 2019 when he had 17.9 YPR, 73% of it YBC.  He has been used as a downfield threat.  In fact when the Bills made the trade, pundits a-plenty were opining that's why we got him.

2) How DBs play him - a bit of film persuades that most are 100% concerned about letting him by them and he is able to exploit that concern to get open on shorter routes.   I think he'd still get open anyway, but some of the spectacular ankle-breaking we see from Diggs seems driven by "don't let him downfield" DB angst. (Hopefully Sanders can still throw down that threat because exploiting that concern is a help to Diggs).

3) Look at the NFL advanced stats charts for Diggs and the routes he ran in the games that are still up there.   He is running deep routes and making some catches.

 

Now - Diggs doesn't have tip-top speed and there are some corners who can hang with him, obviously not true of Tyreek Hill who can beat anyone.  Diggs has to get a move on the guy and take off, vs just taking off.  But he does, and he does make those contested catches.

 

A few thoughts, kind of spitballing:

1) I don't think the Bills have confidence in the deep ball as a premier weapon for Josh just yet.  He improved to average or above average, but I think a deeper dive would show that most of the improvement is in the 20-40 yd throws, not the true deep bombs.  You can also kind of see that in the passer stats - Josh is now top-5 in 20+ yd throws but only top-10 or so in 40+ yd throws   Chicken/egg - is that because he can't reliably hook up with the WR in that range, or because he doesn't have a guy who can get down there and get open, fast enough?

2) We brought back our OL, which I considered "good not great" for pass protection.  Deep plays are long developing plays.  Maybe the Bills are being strategic about "where can we add one moderately priced guy who can make a difference"? and the decision is it's easier to add a guy who can get open fast on those short to intermediate routes, than it is to revamp the OL for great pass protection AND add a speedster who is able to quickly develop as a proficient NFL WR  (not a Jonny one note), given the limited cap.

3) I do think the Bills were strategic in bringing in Hollister.  I see him as a Knox-type guy, less athletic potential and better football resume to date.  I think that could be a needed "shot across the bow" to Knox "nothing is given, everything is earned"

4) On the speed back who can get to the edge thing....except for the very very top guys, it seems to me most of them still rely upon getting a block from the WR and TE, and that was, mmm, kinda spotty last year.

Anyway, good post and I hope the Bills will address this in the draft and possibly the remainder of FA, because so far there's a gap between what were identified as needs post-season and what the Bills have done.

 

I guess one last thought.  Unless they can fill the rotation with young guys, I feel that the insistence on a full (and expensive) rotation of DLmen is unsustainable.  The ROI for our DL just sucks, and is hampering team-building efforts elsewhere.

 

I think it might be even more important for this offense to add a true receiving threat out of the backfield then a deep threat.

 

We both noted a number of plays this season where Josh had open recievers in the flats. I'd almost say most defenses just gave those routes to us. But he either didn't trust, or wasn't interested in using those passes as a weapon. 

 

If we add a back like Gainwell who can destroy teams catching the ball out of the backfield, we may force teams to defend the flats which just opens up the 10-20, 20-40 range passes.  

 

We should add a deep threat too, and preferably a wr who can double as a returner. But I think I'm higher on Gainwell at this point than Ettienne to become Josh's deadly weapon out of the backfield.

Edited March 21, 2021 by Motorin'

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, Motorin' said:

I think it might be even more important for this offense to add a true receiving threat out of the backfield then a deep threat.

We both noted a number of plays this season where Josh had open recievers in the flats. I'd almost say most defenses just gave those routes to us.

 

If we add a back like Gainwell who can destroy teams catching the ball out of the backfield, we may force teams to defend the flats which just opens up the 10-20, 20-40 range passes.  

 

We should add a deep threat too, and preferably a wr who can double as a returner. But I think I'm higher on Gainwell at this point than Ettienne to become Josh's deadly weapon out of the backfield.

 

I can go along with that.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

You make some good points Badolz, but consider the following.

 

yards per attempt 2020.

 

Houston 8.3/ attempt

Minnesota 7.8

GB 7.7

Vegas 7.7

KC 7.6

Buffalo. 7.5

 

Now we can parse to passes over 20, over 40, amd so on, but using this simple stat, three teams above us weren’t in the playoffs.  Most likely because they were playing from behind.  Hollister is a cheap way to manage losing Smith and Kroft.

 

Would it have been nice to get Ertz, Rudolph, Gronk, sure, but they were too expensive.

 

 

Those numbers were last season.    The style of offense,  Allen's uptick in play and Diggs were new and they started the year with a speed threat in Brown.

 

Doing it over again with 19 games worth of tape for defenses to dissect and without new players who can make defenses cover the entire field isn't going to be as easy.

 

Middling RB's + Middling TE play + 3 primary WR's who don't force the safeties to play back = recipe for defense squatting on your short to intermediate throws and,  in turn being in better position to stuff your run game.

 

Hopefully it doesn't play out that way.

 

Maybe Sanders plays like his Niners and earlier form and turns into the guy who runs 10 yards then comes back to catch the ball for 8.........like Diggs did over and over last season.   And then Diggs gets used a bit more like he did in Minnesota in 2019 when he was targeted deep more.

 

And btw........I still suspect they end up with Ertz before it's all said and done.........but until then they aren't notably improved on paper.

 

[machine gun kelly]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Those numbers were last season.    The style of offense,  Allen's uptick in play and Diggs were new and they started the year with a speed threat in Brown.

 

Doing it over again with 19 games worth of tape for defenses to dissect and without new players who can make defenses cover the entire field isn't going to be as easy.

 

Middling RB's + Middling TE play + 3 primary WR's who don't force the safeties to play back = recipe for defense squatting on your short to intermediate throws and,  in turn being in better position to stuff your run game.

 

Hopefully it doesn't play out that way.

 

Maybe Sanders plays like his Niners and earlier form and turns into the guy who runs 10 yards then comes back to catch the ball for 8.........like Diggs did over and over last season.   And then Diggs gets used a bit more like he did in Minnesota in 2019 when he was targeted deep more.

 

And btw........I still suspect they end up with Ertz before it's all said and done.........but until then they aren't notably improved on paper.

 

Solid response my friend.  I hope you’re right on Ertz.  I also think it’s possible we take a speed wr in the draft.  The Sammy talk was fun for that role.  It’s kind of a wait and see.  I am with you we need speed.  

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good post.  Up front, I have been disappointed that the Bills didn't move to add the "speed" they talked about as a gap after the AFCCG, nor the level-up at TE.

 

I am also under-impressed by Njoku.

 

That said:

I don't have access to the kind of advanced statistical services that would break this down, but I don't think Daboll and Chad Hall would agree that Diggs can't handle contested catches downfield against most DBs and teams.  He can and does.  Three lines of evidence:

1) Vikes.  How he was used in Minn, especially in 2019 when he had 17.9 YPR, 73% of it YBC.  He has been used as a downfield threat.  In fact when the Bills made the trade, pundits a-plenty were opining that's why we got him.

2) How DBs play him - a bit of film persuades that most are 100% concerned about letting him by them and he is able to exploit that concern to get open on shorter routes.   I think he'd still get open anyway, but some of the spectacular ankle-breaking we see from Diggs seems driven by "don't let him downfield" DB angst. (Hopefully Sanders can still throw down that threat because exploiting that concern is a help to Diggs).

3) Look at the NFL advanced stats charts for Diggs and the routes he ran in the games that are still up there.   He is running deep routes and making some catches.

 

Now - Diggs doesn't have tip-top speed and there are some corners who can hang with him, obviously not true of Tyreek Hill who can beat anyone.  Diggs has to get a move on the guy and take off, vs just taking off.  But he does, and he does make those contested catches.

 

A few thoughts, kind of spitballing:

1) I don't think the Bills have confidence in the deep ball as a premier weapon for Josh just yet.  He improved to average or above average, but I think a deeper dive would show that most of the improvement is in the 20-40 yd throws, not the true deep bombs.  You can also kind of see that in the passer stats - Josh is now top-5 in 20+ yd throws but only top-10 or so in 40+ yd throws   Chicken/egg - is that because he can't reliably hook up with the WR in that range, or because he doesn't have a guy who can get down there and get open, fast enough?

2) We brought back our OL, which I considered "good not great" for pass protection.  Deep plays are long developing plays.  Maybe the Bills are being strategic about "where can we add one moderately priced guy who can make a difference"? and the decision is it's easier to add a guy who can get open fast on those short to intermediate routes, than it is to revamp the OL for great pass protection AND add a speedster who is able to quickly develop as a proficient NFL WR  (not a Jonny one note), given the limited cap.

3) I do think the Bills were strategic in bringing in Hollister.  I see him as a Knox-type guy, less athletic potential and better football resume to date.  I think that could be a needed "shot across the bow" to Knox "nothing is given, everything is earned"

4) On the speed back who can get to the edge thing....except for the very very top guys, it seems to me most of them still rely upon getting a block from the WR and TE, and that was, mmm, kinda spotty last year.

Anyway, good post and I hope the Bills will address this in the draft and possibly the remainder of FA, because so far there's a gap between what were identified as needs post-season and what the Bills have done.

 

I guess one last thought.  Unless they can fill the rotation with young guys, I feel that the insistence on a full (and expensive) rotation of DLmen is unsustainable.  The ROI for our DL just sucks, and is hampering team-building efforts elsewhere.

 

 

Diggs is a threat to get deep.......but not in the sense that few CB1's can turn and run with him or match up with his catch radius.

 

And remember that Minnesota offense was heavy play action.    This offense is basically all run from the shotgun........you don't get the same schematic boost in terms of the deep ball game.  

 

In my experience you can always rationalize why something might work on paper........"of course Trent Edwards can run a no huddle with studs like Owens and Evans and Lynch in the backfield".........extreme example........but generally speaking........when an element of the plan looks very flawed it plays out flawed. 

 

1) And I absolutely agree with your point that the deep ball is not a strong suit for Josh.........but rather than saying "well let's just focus even more on what he CAN do"  I think with an arm talent like his you want to take him to the next level.    Give him a guy who can get deep and provide a lot of margin for error with size or an extra gear.    I don't think Brown or Diggs provide the extra gear or the catch radius deep.   They are great for someone who can drop the deep ball in a bucket like Russell Wilson but I think Allen needs more room for error.

 

Allen's mediocre work with the deep ball has certainly been fully exposed though...........and so we could already expect teams to be jumping his short to intermediate throws more in 2021.    He shouldn't fall off the cliff like other limitation-exposed QB's of Bills past or anything because he can make some intermediate throws that are indefensible at times.......like the TD pass to Diggs late in the Arizona game.......which I think is part of @dave mcbride's defense of the Sanders signing.

 

3) I like Hollister.   He's probably not a difference maker against the likes of KC, Tampa, Indy, Baltimore perhaps but I think he'll be effective against teams that won't be as capable of executing the "Bills defense" that we will be seeing.

 

Agree on the DL rotation.   Really did not like the Addison re-structure.   Butler I could understand a little because 340 pounders who have shown they can get to the QB are rare and will warrant more development time(which he didn't get at DT1T).   But even so I would have been fine with them cutting bait there as well.    They need someone on the edge who can actually finish at the QB.    I think there is a line between what qualifies as "pressures" and what qualifies as plays that really scare a QB into making a bad decision........kinda' like shots on goal versus scoring chances in hockey.   Bills get plenty of SOG but plays where they are legitimately threatening the QB to the point where ball safety is a concern are lacking.