Ayjent Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 First off, I think Barnwell is a dry writer and has some serious misconceptions of sports (like his whole theory that momentum doesn't actually exist in sports). I still read it because it is better than a lot of what ESPN puts out. The article requires ESPN+ (which I wouldn't pay for by itself but as a bundle with Hulu and Disney+ why not) https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/30661462/nfl-playoff-bracket-predictions-bill-barnwell-picks-every-winner-including-super-bowl-score . Barnwell has the Saints beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and it goes like this for the Bills: They beat the Colts and lose to the Steelers. "The Steelers' offense isn't great, but it's not as bad as it looked against the Bills in December, when it went 1-for-10 on third downs." and "It wouldn't shock me if we saw the Steelers' defense and Allen combine for something similar to the first matchup, when the Bills scored 19 points on offense (cornerback Taron Johnson had a pick-six to get the Bills to 26)." Steelers lose to Chiefs in AFC Championship, and Saints beat Bucs in NFC Championship. What interests me is how a one dimensional offense with an inability to stretch the field in its one dimension and a defense that got physically dominated in the second half somehow makes Pittsburgh a team that presents too many problems for the Bills. The Bills scored 19 points on Offense in the first matchup because it didn't need to score more and dominated the clock to put the Steelers in a sleeper hold in the fourth quarter. It was a dominating victory even though the Bills struggled early in the game on Offense to get things going. The Bills defense simply matches up well against teams that can't run or pass deep - it plays right into their strengths. And I'm not hating on Barnwell because its just a silly prediction piece, but how he relies on things like DVOA of defenses better than the Bills that the Steelers were more successful against rather than actual matchup strengths and weaknesses has always been a thing that irks me about his analysis. He doesn't understand the context of the stats he cites and relies too heavily on them. You can use stats to backup what you know you saw when you watched the game but when you use stats to perpetuate a narrative that doesn't reflect reality then you are just clueless and blind in what you are trying to prove. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Ayjent said: First off, I think Barnwell is a dry writer and has some serious misconceptions of sports (like his whole theory that momentum doesn't actually exist in sports). I still read it because it is better than a lot of what ESPN puts out. The article requires ESPN+ (which I wouldn't pay for by itself but as a bundle with Hulu and Disney+ why not) https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/30661462/nfl-playoff-bracket-predictions-bill-barnwell-picks-every-winner-including-super-bowl-score . Barnwell has the Saints beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and it goes like this for the Bills: They beat the Colts and lose to the Steelers. "The Steelers' offense isn't great, but it's not as bad as it looked against the Bills in December, when it went 1-for-10 on third downs." and "It wouldn't shock me if we saw the Steelers' defense and Allen combine for something similar to the first matchup, when the Bills scored 19 points on offense (cornerback Taron Johnson had a pick-six to get the Bills to 26)." Steelers lose to Chiefs in AFC Championship, and Saints beat Bucs in NFC Championship. What interests me is how a one dimensional offense with an inability to stretch the field in its one dimension and a defense that got physically dominated in the second half somehow makes Pittsburgh a team that presents too many problems for the Bills. The Bills scored 19 points on Offense in the first matchup because it didn't need to score more and dominated the clock to put the Steelers in a sleeper hold in the fourth quarter. It was a dominating victory even though the Bills struggled early in the game on Offense to get things going. The Bills defense simply matches up well against teams that can't run or pass deep - it plays right into their strengths. And I'm not hating on Barnwell because its just a silly prediction piece, but how he relies on things like DVOA of defenses better than the Bills that the Steelers were more successful against rather than actual matchup strengths and weaknesses has always been a thing that irks me about his analysis. He doesn't understand the context of the stats he cites and relies too heavily on them. You can use stats to backup what you know you saw when you watched the game but when you use stats to perpetuate a narrative that doesn't reflect reality then you are just clueless and blind in what you are trying to prove. Should buffalo get past Indy, I think they're going to blitz the hell out of buffalo and go for turnovers. Buffalo seems to have improved against it, but they'll have some weird man zone stuff to try and bait allen into throws. It'll be interesting. Edited January 8, 2021 by dneveu 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 (edited) 17 minutes ago, dneveu said: Should buffalo get past Indy, I think they're going to blitz the hell out of buffalo and go for turnovers. Buffalo seems to have improved against it, but they'll have some weird man zone stuff to try and bait allen into throws. It'll be interesting. I expect they attempt to bait Buffalo too, but I don't think they will be able to cover this WR group. Their plan will be to try and pressure and confuse Josh, but there are too many receivers that can get open quick. Josh has really improved his quick passing attack against some of the best defenses in the league. Seattle sacked Allen, I think, 7 times - Bills still won. Pittsburgh harassed Allen for the entire game and were successful for the 1st half of that game but again - Bills still won. Indy isn't anywhere near as good at bringing pressure as Pittsburgh. Allen is going to find his targets. It may take a couple of drives to figure out but they ain't stopping this. Edited January 8, 2021 by Rockinon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jletha Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 37 minutes ago, Ayjent said: First off, I think Barnwell is a dry writer and has some serious misconceptions of sports (like his whole theory that momentum doesn't actually exist in sports). I still read it because it is better than a lot of what ESPN puts out. The article requires ESPN+ (which I wouldn't pay for by itself but as a bundle with Hulu and Disney+ why not) https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/30661462/nfl-playoff-bracket-predictions-bill-barnwell-picks-every-winner-including-super-bowl-score . Barnwell has the Saints beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and it goes like this for the Bills: They beat the Colts and lose to the Steelers. "The Steelers' offense isn't great, but it's not as bad as it looked against the Bills in December, when it went 1-for-10 on third downs." and "It wouldn't shock me if we saw the Steelers' defense and Allen combine for something similar to the first matchup, when the Bills scored 19 points on offense (cornerback Taron Johnson had a pick-six to get the Bills to 26)." Steelers lose to Chiefs in AFC Championship, and Saints beat Bucs in NFC Championship. What interests me is how a one dimensional offense with an inability to stretch the field in its one dimension and a defense that got physically dominated in the second half somehow makes Pittsburgh a team that presents too many problems for the Bills. The Bills scored 19 points on Offense in the first matchup because it didn't need to score more and dominated the clock to put the Steelers in a sleeper hold in the fourth quarter. It was a dominating victory even though the Bills struggled early in the game on Offense to get things going. The Bills defense simply matches up well against teams that can't run or pass deep - it plays right into their strengths. And I'm not hating on Barnwell because its just a silly prediction piece, but how he relies on things like DVOA of defenses better than the Bills that the Steelers were more successful against rather than actual matchup strengths and weaknesses has always been a thing that irks me about his analysis. He doesn't understand the context of the stats he cites and relies too heavily on them. You can use stats to backup what you know you saw when you watched the game but when you use stats to perpetuate a narrative that doesn't reflect reality then you are just clueless and blind in what you are trying to prove. They had something going in the first half that was rattling Allen. For us its easy to say we wont let that happen since, well, we adjusted in that game. But I dont think its unreasonable to say Pitt could also learn from it. Also Pitt did have several drops. You remove those, get a bit healthier on defense and Ben stretches the field like they did against the Colts and maybe. I wouldnt bet on it though. I think were a tier above them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 51 minutes ago, Ayjent said: First off, I think Barnwell is a dry writer and has some serious misconceptions of sports (like his whole theory that momentum doesn't actually exist in sports). I still read it because it is better than a lot of what ESPN puts out. The article requires ESPN+ (which I wouldn't pay for by itself but as a bundle with Hulu and Disney+ why not) https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/30661462/nfl-playoff-bracket-predictions-bill-barnwell-picks-every-winner-including-super-bowl-score . Barnwell has the Saints beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and it goes like this for the Bills: They beat the Colts and lose to the Steelers. "The Steelers' offense isn't great, but it's not as bad as it looked against the Bills in December, when it went 1-for-10 on third downs." and "It wouldn't shock me if we saw the Steelers' defense and Allen combine for something similar to the first matchup, when the Bills scored 19 points on offense (cornerback Taron Johnson had a pick-six to get the Bills to 26)." Steelers lose to Chiefs in AFC Championship, and Saints beat Bucs in NFC Championship. What interests me is how a one dimensional offense with an inability to stretch the field in its one dimension and a defense that got physically dominated in the second half somehow makes Pittsburgh a team that presents too many problems for the Bills. The Bills scored 19 points on Offense in the first matchup because it didn't need to score more and dominated the clock to put the Steelers in a sleeper hold in the fourth quarter. It was a dominating victory even though the Bills struggled early in the game on Offense to get things going. The Bills defense simply matches up well against teams that can't run or pass deep - it plays right into their strengths. And I'm not hating on Barnwell because its just a silly prediction piece, but how he relies on things like DVOA of defenses better than the Bills that the Steelers were more successful against rather than actual matchup strengths and weaknesses has always been a thing that irks me about his analysis. He doesn't understand the context of the stats he cites and relies too heavily on them. You can use stats to backup what you know you saw when you watched the game but when you use stats to perpetuate a narrative that doesn't reflect reality then you are just clueless and blind in what you are trying to prove. He "doesn't understand the context of the stats"? Please. Whatever else you want to say about Barnwell, he's smart as hell. He certainly understands that. And his narrative isn't divorced from reality either. Disagreeing with him, though, is certainly fair. It's all opinions when it comes to predictions. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillnutinHouston Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 If he's using the same analytics that he & his buddy Mike Schopp used to predict JA's pro career, pardon me if I pass on reading this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Day 10 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Everybody is sleeping on the Steelers right now IMO. They were counted out when they had the slide. They had a rest week, and IMO will likely smash a depleted Browns team (which could very well give them confidence and more rest)... they would be a tough out. I still think I would rather play them than the Titans, Chiefs, or maybe Ravens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_Pro_Bills Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 31 minutes ago, jletha said: They had something going in the first half that was rattling Allen. For us its easy to say we wont let that happen since, well, we adjusted in that game. But I dont think its unreasonable to say Pitt could also learn from it. Also Pitt did have several drops. You remove those, get a bit healthier on defense and Ben stretches the field like they did against the Colts and maybe. I wouldnt bet on it though. I think were a tier above them. For one, Heyward was a disruptive force in the 1st half pushing the pocket, getting pressure, and clogging up the interior. The Bills seemed to make some blocking adjustments in the 2nd half and he was not as much of a fact as a result. Josh was also getting the ball out a little quicker and reading the "D" more effectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Pittsburgh was missing it's starting middle linebacker against us. However it will be a new game and at home. Should be interesting. I do think they beat Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 we had just about the worst first half possible on O vs pittz. there was an adjustment made prior to the half tho, where we scored a fg. schematically there was a difference in how the interior line was blocking, and it worked. ever since that game the bills o line has simply been better, including closing out games running the ball in pretty dominant fashion, and against above average to very good Ds. This isn't just some jonny come lately wrinkle to be figured out either, this is the entire 4th quarter of the nfl season, save most of the first half vs pittz. vs two teams that needed wins for playoff entry or playoff positioning, and two teams that at least have good Ds and were playing for pride. i know this discussion focuses on the pitt game, but to me the playoffs comes down to the indy game. if the bills can weather any early storm and ride positive mo and play with the confidence they have had, it is going to take an honestly better team having a great day to beat us. this kinda reminds me of the 08 giants SB victory. they lost late in the year to NE, but they had so so much confidence and played so loose that it always seemed like they were the ones in control, not their opponent. they beat TR lead dallas, and favre in green bay en route to stealing away the pats perfect season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 53 minutes ago, May Day 10 said: Everybody is sleeping on the Steelers right now IMO. They were counted out when they had the slide. They had a rest week, and IMO will likely smash a depleted Browns team (which could very well give them confidence and more rest)... they would be a tough out. I still think I would rather play them than the Titans, Chiefs, or maybe Ravens. yeah, the Steelers will show up when it matters. And they did win 11 in a row. They appear to be back. They are a very good team with experience and great coaching. We can beat them, but it will not be easy. 13 minutes ago, Adam said: Pittsburgh was missing it's starting middle linebacker against us. However it will be a new game and at home. Should be interesting. I do think they beat Cleveland. I think Pittsburgh was missing its starter (Bush) and its backup (Spilliane, who has played well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bouds Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Worry about it if the team gets there, no point right now. These guys have to write about something, it's their job. Useless to debate these scenarios amongst ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drew21PA Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Anyone that doesnt realize that that game against Pittsbrugh was over by the 3rd quarter is dillusional? I still cant grasp how people thought it was a "close game" So, we are also taking away the fact that the Bills scored 19 and took their foot off the gas in the 4th? Maybe we just need to blow everyone out just so people get the picture? Oh, and like a pick 6 is a negative to a winning team? Since when? lol I dont get it? Buffalo got off to a shaky start against pittsburgh....then dominated them? In addition, we played prevent and gave them a TD in the 4th - that game wasnt close...this is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hemma Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 " when the Bills scored 19 points on offense" Well, OK but we were 1st and 10 on their 19 and JA did 2 kneel downs to end the game to conclude a 13 play drive. The 19 could certainly have been more and we definitely controlled the 2nd half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Why is this thread a thing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wvbillsfan Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 The we were held to 19 points narrative is garbage No mention of what they were held to? We were held to 19 points because we ran the ball at them for 8 minutes and they couldn’t do anything about it. We held ourselves to 19 points. They didn’t do squat 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloMatt Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just focusing on Indy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
34-78-83 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Umm we're not losing to Pittsburgh if we are blessed enough to get to round 2 and Pittsburgh beats the Browns. This guy must be protecting an early season prediction of Pit/KC in the AFC Championship. Nobody in their right mind would pick Pit over Buf right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BITE ME Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 The Steelers are not an elite football team. Neither are the Colts. The Chiefs and Bills are on a collision course. I think it is a 60-40 shot the Chiefs beat the Bills but I will take a 40 percent shot at the Super Bowl. The Chiefs get the extra week of rest and get to play at home. Everything still goes through KC but the Bills have a real legit shot to beat them. The Steelers never passed the eye test this year. They were always a very good team, but never elite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I don't agree. I like our matchup against Pittsburgh better than our matchup against Indianapolis to be honest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Junction Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 The biggest X factor in a rematch is that Allen will likely be more willing to run in the playoffs. We really haven’t seen a whole lot of that this season, but in single elimination.... I would count on him taking off for even a few yards when it’s free yardage and coverage is tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsfan1972 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 And the Bills were without Brown.... Yep Allen was shaky not good the first 24 minutes. The last 40 minutes the Steelers had no no answer for him. The last six possessions 315 yards, 1 punt, 2TD's and 2 FG's.... But when the game was in the balance it does not count, the first 24 minutes is more important to his narrative. If they do play Pitt, you know this will be the exact narrative many pundits will take. Get by Indy and see what's next and play the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I just care about tomorrow. We win, we can have a never ending discussion on Pitt, or whoever else pans out. Still a bunch of scenarios. We beat hypothetically (not really as we should win) the Colts, then the Chiefs gets the next worst seed, so if Cleveland wins, we get the winner of the Ravens/Titans. I thought the WGR guys said it best this morning. The only one to be afraid of is crazy mistakes from us. Not any opponent. My hope is the Steelers win. The Titans/Ravens beat each other up as they are both physical teams. We get the Steelers and destroy them. The winner of that team beats on the Chiefs. We face the Chiefs and I hope it’s the Titans so Henry just pounds on the Chiefs. the Chiefs like a ripened pounded meat is tenderized chiefs team faces the hottest team in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stosh64 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Barnwell is just another draft day Allen hater that can't let himself admit how good Josh has become. There will be no denying Josh is elite soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: He "doesn't understand the context of the stats"? Please. Whatever else you want to say about Barnwell, he's smart as hell. He certainly understands that. And his narrative isn't divorced from reality either. Disagreeing with him, though, is certainly fair. It's all opinions when it comes to predictions. It is because of Barnwell's intelligence, not despite it, that he says things like momentum doesn't exist in sports. It doesn't. NFL football's IQ is rising all the time right now. The old ways of "football guys" doing the same dumb stuff over and over are coming to a close. Thank goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quinnearlysghost88 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I’ve watched the psyche of buffalo fans completely warp over the last 6 days. Sunday we were world beaters and could take on anyone. Fast forward to Friday and the Colts are going to figure out and exploit our weaknesses, grind us down, keep the ball away from our offense and run it down our throats. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 48 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said: I’ve watched the psyche of buffalo fans completely warp over the last 6 days. Sunday we were world beaters and could take on anyone. Fast forward to Friday and the Colts are going to figure out and exploit our weaknesses, grind us down, keep the ball away from our offense and run it down our throats. haha— true. We are all terrified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayjent Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 11:23 AM, ScottLaw said: Because someone's confused that someone didn't predict the Bills to beat Pittsburgh in the divisional round of the playoffs.... like it's unfathomable if that happens..... Or because I thought it was interesting and worth talking about, and I am not a big fan of Barnwell and haven’t been for a long time. I take issue with his overreliance on letting the stats drive narratives rather than having the game explained from the important stats that effect the outcome and effectiveness. I understand how deceiving stats can be when not properly put into context, especially in sports. I fully understand that the Bills could lose to any team in the playoffs - these are all good teams and the Bills are not full of playoff experience. Presumptive assholery is the problem with society. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 1:15 PM, Billsfan1972 said: And the Bills were without Brown.... Yep Allen was shaky not good the first 24 minutes. The last 40 minutes the Steelers had no no answer for him. The last six possessions 315 yards, 1 punt, 2TD's and 2 FG's.... But when the game was in the balance it does not count, the first 24 minutes is more important to his narrative. If they do play Pitt, you know this will be the exact narrative many pundits will take. Get by Indy and see what's next and play the game. Gonna need Smoke to come from witness protection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnNord Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:42 AM, Ayjent said: First off, I think Barnwell is a dry writer and has some serious misconceptions of sports (like his whole theory that momentum doesn't actually exist in sports). I still read it because it is better than a lot of what ESPN puts out. The article requires ESPN+ (which I wouldn't pay for by itself but as a bundle with Hulu and Disney+ why not) https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/30661462/nfl-playoff-bracket-predictions-bill-barnwell-picks-every-winner-including-super-bowl-score . Barnwell has the Saints beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and it goes like this for the Bills: They beat the Colts and lose to the Steelers. "The Steelers' offense isn't great, but it's not as bad as it looked against the Bills in December, when it went 1-for-10 on third downs." and "It wouldn't shock me if we saw the Steelers' defense and Allen combine for something similar to the first matchup, when the Bills scored 19 points on offense (cornerback Taron Johnson had a pick-six to get the Bills to 26)." Steelers lose to Chiefs in AFC Championship, and Saints beat Bucs in NFC Championship. What interests me is how a one dimensional offense with an inability to stretch the field in its one dimension and a defense that got physically dominated in the second half somehow makes Pittsburgh a team that presents too many problems for the Bills. The Bills scored 19 points on Offense in the first matchup because it didn't need to score more and dominated the clock to put the Steelers in a sleeper hold in the fourth quarter. It was a dominating victory even though the Bills struggled early in the game on Offense to get things going. The Bills defense simply matches up well against teams that can't run or pass deep - it plays right into their strengths. And I'm not hating on Barnwell because its just a silly prediction piece, but how he relies on things like DVOA of defenses better than the Bills that the Steelers were more successful against rather than actual matchup strengths and weaknesses has always been a thing that irks me about his analysis. He doesn't understand the context of the stats he cites and relies too heavily on them. You can use stats to backup what you know you saw when you watched the game but when you use stats to perpetuate a narrative that doesn't reflect reality then you are just clueless and blind in what you are trying to prove. I’m not really a Barnwell fan but his logic here makes sense. I don’t necessarily agree with it but it isn’t the most out there kind of take. I can see Pittsburgh playing better than it do the last time we played them but the teams are pretty evenly matched IMO so I see the game as a coin flip and yes it could come down to turnovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBills88 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Let's get ready for Lamar Jackson & the rushing ravens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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