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About Ayjent

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  1. I agree stats are just the details of how you got your result, not really whether you played well. However, certain stats can be predictive of success if they are steady, but not the common stats that are usually available (yardage, QB rating), but more contextual stats. For instance first down % (of all plays), first downs per drive, drive to goal line ratio (average drive length (yards)/average field position (yards to goal)) , and scoring range opportunities/% (i.e., plays/drive conversion % inside 35 yds) - if these numbers are good, then you have an effective offense - how you get those stats doesn't really matter. So if a QB is only in the mid-50s in completion percentage that doesn't matter if the first down% is high for the offense - that's why Allen was effective when he came back from injury last year - the offense was moving the chains and the ball even with his completion percentage being low. If you have a lot of plays and a high conversion % inside the opponents 35 yard line you are likely dominating a game. If you are near 50% in the drive to goal line ratio, the Offense is extremely effective at moving the ball and changing field position.
  2. Yeah he misses tackles, and if you watch closely all LBs do. Im a Florida alum and watched him his entire career. I thought him and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson were their best defensive players on a consistent basis this past year. Polite was really good but would disappear sometimes. I really think he is a perfect situational OLB that could be sent to blitz (especially blindside) or cover TEs this year and could step in for Milano really well if there is an injury. He has a lot of instinct and big play ability, and plays his best in big situations. Does he make mistakes and is he in need of work? No doubt, but he will be a guy you want on the field when it matters.
  3. Stop reading the reports and watch the LSU highlights - he wrecked them this year and had no problem tackling. This is a really solid pick, especially for the 5th round
  4. I watched Joseph a lot. For whatever inconsistencies he may have shown at Florida, he more than made up for with a lot of big plays in big moments. He's very versatile and is a good blitzing LB. Really he was best when the set him loose to just attack the LOS without have to read and react. The scouting on him wasn't great, but I feel like it was way too harsh considering how much of a difference maker he was for the gators.
  5. If he drops into the third round it would be surprising.
  6. For the entire draft I'd like to see the focus on Offense, almost entirely, but that doesn't necessarily mean I think that they should go Offense with the first pick. The way I look at it is that the best OL and WR prospects available at 9 arent enough value for their draft position. I think Hockenson at No. 9 is too high, but that would be the only offensive player to consider at 9 in my opinion because I think Josh Allen could really benefit from a solid TE that is damn good in both the run and pass game. Best Option - Attempt to trade Down in first round. Depending on the partner and position you trade into (No. 15 with Washington is a good target because I think the value of additional picks for moving down to a position where you can take advantage of a player that slipped down to you) you take the best available: 1.a coveted DT/DE ends up being available still then you take the DL player 2. Hockenson/Devin Bush if they move into the late 1st 3. Best OL player remaining on the board. I'm just not sold on any WR in this class being worth a 1st round pick. I'd be pissed if the picked Jonah Williams at 9, but less upset if they picked him late in the first and moved him inside (I feel the same way about Jawaan Taylor - although I think Taylor is probably a better prospect for Tackle than Williams in the NFL, but both would probably do better on the interior). I don't think he is an NFL LT and would struggle with NFL caliber Edge rushers. Assuming they pick up at least another 2nd rounder in the trade - if somehow someone like Devin Bush is available that is the easy pick - they put him in the middle with Edmunds and Milano outside (that would be a solid LB crew). they pick up another OL prospect in the 2nd, and I think it would be smart if they picked two OL in the 2nd if they didn't pick up any in the first. I think a gadget/utility player that they could use as a RB/WR/QB/TE is Jalen Hurd in the late 4th/early 5th would be a good pickup - he is a very good athlete and a creative OC would love to have a weapon like him, and the Bills are a little dry on offensive weapons. This is a Five Star HS player and was a really good player at Tennessee at RB. He is way undervalued in the draft. They could move him around a lot to create mismatches - Good late round RB options - Devine Ozigbo or Jordan Scarlett Option B - If no trade partner or not a good enough deal they stay and draft: 1. best available DT/DE - I like Clelin Ferrel and think he would be the type of pass rusher they need, but there are a lot of guys to choose from on the DL. I don't really like the idea of Defense first, but that is what this draft features as the marquee players. There is a chance Ed Oliver may be available still too. 2. Hockenson a little too early but as I said I think a TE may be way more valuable than a high pick WR to Josh Allen's development. They roll him out so much that having a good TE target makes the most sense in improving the passing option around him.
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