Week 17: Dolphins at Bills - Squish the Fish playoff hopes and dreams

[Mr. K]

Well Big Ben is sitting so we might not see much of Allen or the rest of the starters unless they play them for the lead or just a couple of snaps and coast into the postseason. I personally would like to see our back ups beat a 10 win dolphins team.

[nucci]

8 hours ago, Penfield45 said:

super early forcast but looks like its going to snow

 

Imo Singletary and Moss need to start the whole game. They need reps before the playoffs and we have hardly run the ball this season. 

why do they need reps...they have been playing and practicing all season except Moss was injured a bit

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, Mr. K said:

Well Big Ben is sitting so we might not see much of Allen or the rest of the starters unless they play them for the lead or just a couple of snaps and coast into the postseason. I personally would like to see our back ups beat a 10 win dolphins team.

If Flores sticks with Tua the whole game, I think the fins are in trouble no matter who plays QB for the Bills.  I expect JA to play the first half.

[KellyToTasker]

8 hours ago, DolFAN93 said:

Flores for sure prefers Tua's passiveness instead of Fitz. I don't think he's a game manager, he's lead multiple game-winning drives already, but I do understand why you feel that way. His play has been on-off. 

 

That's the next step. As much as I'd like to blame the supporting cast, which is a factor, when will he elevate the team when things aren't looking the greatest? I believe that's why Flores keeps starting him; he's hoping that spark eventually comes on consistently.

 

From his play as a Dolphin, his arm strength hasn't been an issue. Tua has made those exact throws that Chris stated in his article. Stats only tell a percentage of the story, actually viewing the games fills in the rest. If any other QB threw for 90 yards in a game would you assume they struggled or their arm strength wasn't strong enough to make the throws? 

 

Time will tell.

No, I wouldn’t assume. It’s blatant that his arm is weak. I’ve watched him play well before he was drafted by the Dolphins. The defenses do not need to cover all parts of the field against him, because he can’t hit all parts. There is little margin for error when you lack arm strength. If he makes a late read and actually attempts to throw the ball (which he’s not doing, look at his YPA), it’s getting picked. There’s no argument here. 

[wjag]

I'm not prepared to say Tua has a weak arm.  What I think I see is a hesitation to throw into coverage at the moment.  I think the play calling reflects that.  And it is never more obvious to me when they put Fitz in.  Fitz's decision making is so much faster and at the moment, more confident.  I think Tua will be fine.  He just needs more reps. 

[KellyToTasker]

4 minutes ago, wjag said:

I'm not prepared to say Tua has a weak arm.  What I think I see is a hesitation to throw into coverage at the moment.  I think the play calling reflects that.  And it is never more obvious to me when they put Fitz in.  Fitz's decision making is so much faster and at the moment, more confident.  I think Tua will be fine.  He just needs more reps. 

I’m looking forward to seeing Tua throw in Orchard Park. The Bills will fully prepare for a dink and dunk passing game. 

[RichRiderBills]

Fitz has a pretty weak arm. So does Brady. Does not hurt him them so much. 

 

That being said, I agree Tua seems limited. I dont know if he's the guy. 

Edited December 30, 2020 by RichRiderBills

[MAJBobby]

With Tua I see a Pennington or Edwards type arm talent. Not great not bad. But anticipation will cover for it. But that will be after game slows down and he understands the difference between College and NFL open. 
 

I see a Tyrod Taylor (without the legs) as a thrower. Will opt for the safe pass over the open riskier pass. Now the question will be is that Tua or is that being coached into him. Either way it won’t be good enough long term. 

[KellyToTasker]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

With Tua I see a Pennington or Edwards type arm talent. Not great not bad. But anticipation will cover for it. But that will be after game slows down and he understands the difference between College and NFL open. 
 

I see a Tyrod Taylor (without the legs) as a thrower. Will opt for the safe pass over the open riskier pass. Now the question will be is that Tua or is that being coached into him. Either way it won’t be good enough long term. 

This. And you’re not going to dominate in today’s NFL, long term, with that style of QB. If the Dolphins had Herbert, I’d be concerned. Him and Allen going at it for years would’ve been Kelly-Marino. That’s not happening with Tua. He’s a game manager, just like Tyrod, and we know exactly what that produces. You might make the playoffs, you might be competitive, but you’re not winning the Super Bowl (barring some fluke set of circumstances). 

[MAJBobby]

4 minutes ago, KellyToTasker said:

This. And you’re not going to dominate in today’s NFL, long term, with that style of QB. If the Dolphins had Herbert, I’d be concerned. Him and Allen going at it for years would’ve been Kelly-Marino. That’s not happening with Tua. He’s a game manager, just like Tyrod, and we know exactly what that produces. You might make the playoffs, you might be competitive, but you’re not winning the Super Bowl (barring some fluke set of circumstances). 

Yep and there is more than TT that shows that (interesting that Tua is also referred to as TT lol). Need a QB that will take the risk every now and then. When you are scared of a TO you will also be scared to make a throw you need to make. Eventually team catch those offenses see Steelers. 
 

his passing heat charts look exactly like Taylor’s a Big U. All the “safe” throws. Even the deep throws are safe outside the number throws. A big void in the middle > 20 yards. 
 

but as a rookie ok that might be what the game plans are. Limit TOs let’s defense keep you in games, maybe even score for you and steal some wins. It has been working for them this year feasting on an easy schedule. However he needs a big step next year or they need to seriously look at another QB. Otherwise they will spin their wheels like they did with Tannenhil there. 

[PromoTheRobot]

13 hours ago, Georgia Bill said:

This...

Not quite but close. Forecast calls for a mix of snow and rain with temps in the mid-30s.

13 hours ago, DolFAN93 said:

Thank you. You guys have every right to be confident, but some of y'all are speaking as if we're the Jets or Jaguars. We've had some bad games but have also hung with you guys earlier in the year and were a few missed penalties away from beating the defending SB champions.

 

Hey, I bet that Miami would be better than the Pats. Flores is a good coach and you have a lot of talent and draft picks. I'm not sold on Tua but you can always grab another QB this draft.

[RichRiderBills]

I don't know if I see quite Chad Pennington level rag arm. He had one of the worst arms of any mildly successful QB ever.

 

I really think Tua's problem is an inability to read defenses, a fear of the pass rush, and resisting the urge to leave the pocket. He's not exceptionally mobile, and does not have the arm strength to make big plays outside the pocket. His fundamentals break down too quickly when pressured.

 

Tua's in a spot many rookie QBs are or have been. He's got the talent to be solid...but the next level is what most rookies go through; what is his work ethic and drive to overcome the fact he's not Herbert or Lamar? Does he have the intelligence to self-analyze his weaknesses?...the humility to hear it from his coaches... and the resolve to do the work he will need to do to fix?

Edited December 30, 2020 by RichRiderBills

[nucci]

42 minutes ago, wjag said:

I'm not prepared to say Tua has a weak arm.  What I think I see is a hesitation to throw into coverage at the moment.  I think the play calling reflects that.  And it is never more obvious to me when they put Fitz in.  Fitz's decision making is so much faster and at the moment, more confident.  I think Tua will be fine.  He just needs more reps. 

Fitz takes more chances..Tua plays it safe

[Hapless Bills Fan]

59 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

Fitz has a pretty weak arm. So does Brady. Does not hurt him them so much. 

That being said, I agree Tua seems limited. I dont know if he's the guy. 

 

There's been more buzz about Allen doing this, but I think quietly, Fitz has been re-working his throwing motion and mechanics the last couple seasons.

He seems to have more "zip" on the ball and to be throwing long balls without that maximum effort.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if Fitz has had his throwing motion digitally sequenced and focused accordingly, or worked on some of the same rotational throwing stuff that Allen worked on.

 

30 minutes ago, nucci said:

Fitz takes more chances..Tua plays it safe

 

I think another way to say that is Fitz is confident in what he's seeing - read and react.  Tua is thinking about it.

 

This is common with young QBs.  Allen's first 2 years in the league there were complaints about him taking too long to throw.  Still does at times, but getting better.

 

Paradoxically, it's something you want to see because you don't want early-career Fitzy or Winston just "Bombs Away!".  Allen could have gone down that route but last year after the Pats game McDermott and Daboll had a sit-down with him and he changed state.

[Big Turk]

Fins can still get in with a Browns, Colts or Ravens loss even if they lose.

 

Browns are most likely candidate...Steelers backups have a history of keeping teams out of the playoffs on the road in week 17...

[RichRiderBills]

I dont love the idea of playing phins 2 weeks in a row. Last time that happened we neefed Frank Reich to turn around the greatest comeback ever. 

[BillsFan130]

2 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

I dont love the idea of playing phins 2 weeks in a row. Last time that happened we neefed Frank Reich to turn around the greatest comeback ever. 

There’s a good chance the bills will

be playing the browns. Or colts.

 

If Dolphins beat the bills presumed backups, they’ll lock up the 5th seed.

[Westside Madness]

20 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Fins can still get in with a Browns, Colts or Ravens loss even if they lose.

 

Browns are most likely candidate...Steelers backups have a history of keeping teams out of the playoffs on the road in week 17...

That's like saying the Dolphins have a history of being undefeated...none of the PIT backups were on that historical team. This is a silly take.

[BearNorth]

Buffalo weather Sunday 1/3.  50% chance of snow, temp 32-37 degrees, wind off the lake.  Tua might not ever come out of the locker room.

[wjag]

5 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Buffalo weather Sunday 1/3.  50% chance of snow, temp 32-37 degrees, wind off the lake.  Tua might not ever come out of the locker room.

 

It's only fair.  Buffalo had to go to Miami in September and play in that heat and humidity.   

[Adamb412]

I'm sorry I may be the minority but I think the bills should sit everyone this week. With the Steelers most likely going to lose to the browns, what do the bills really have to play for? And worst case scenario the bills lose and steelers win, and the bills and steelers meet in the 2nd round it's not like going to pittsburgh is scary, especially with the fan and covid restrictions. And what is that an hour plane ride? Not even.... McDermott sit everyone

[Conlan58]

Yes, let's jeopardize the #2 seed because the Steelers backups never beat anyone before that was a win-and-in playoff team. I say go for the throat and rest anyone they want to rest once the game is put away.  

[Billsfan1972]

Exactly what they did last year.  I think Allen got in two series, which is probably what I expect this week.

[Conlan58]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Exactly what they did last year.  I think Allen got in two series, which is probably what I expect this week.

I hope this isn't the case. Keep it rolling. I don't think it is a huge coincidence that they rested players and crapped the bed in the wildcard game.

[Adamb412]

Just now, Conlan58 said:

I hope this isn't the case. Keep it rolling. I don't think it is a huge coincidence that they rested players and crapped the bed in the wildcard game.

 

They didn't crap the bed, they choked in the 4th quarter. They didn't come out flat, they ran out to a 16-0 lead.  

 

Don't forget the bills in the 90s rested guys ALL THE TIME.  In the final week of the season. Tell me which time the kelly Thurman team every got knocked out in round one....I'll wait...

[wjag]

4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Exactly what they did last year.  I think Allen got in two series, which is probably what I expect this week.

And I am still pissed about that.  I paid good money to go to that game.  

[Conlan58]

1 minute ago, Adamb412 said:

 

They didn't crap the bed, they choked in the 4th quarter. They didn't come out flat, they ran out to a 16-0 lead.  

 

Don't forget the bills in the 90s rested guys ALL THE TIME.  In the final week of the season. Tell me which time the kelly Thurman team every got knocked out in round one....I'll wait...

Your definition of crap the bed must be way different than mine. They gave up a 16-0 lead, and only put up 19 points against a weak defense that was allowing over 24 points a game all year. They crapped the freaking bed. Play to win the game and lock up #2 seed. 

 

What was it, the first pass attempt to Bease after Allen was pulled that he got hurt? Football is football, players get hurt, but i'm willing to bet Bease is just fine if Allen was still in the game at that point. Nursing an injury? Sure - rest. Healthy? Play. 

[Adamb412]

2 minutes ago, Conlan58 said:

Your definition of crap the bed must be way different than mine. They gave up a 16-0 lead, and only put up 19 points against a weak defense that was allowing over 24 points a game all year. They crapped the freaking bed. Play to win the game and lock up #2 seed. 

 

What was it, the first pass attempt to Bease after Allen was pulled that he got hurt? Football is football, players get hurt, but i'm willing to bet Bease is just fine if Allen was still in the game at that point. Nursing an injury? Sure - rest. Healthy? Play. 

 And then allen turns an ankle and we start week 1 playoffs with barkley. Good thing you're not a coach

6 minutes ago, wjag said:

And I am still pissed about that.  I paid good money to go to that game.  

 

You went to a big party. Congrats

[YoloinOhio]

Decisions, decisions 

 

 

[The Wiz]

1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

Decisions, decisions 

 

 

One on your computer, the other on your phone.  Adapt or die John.

[gordong]

9 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Decisions, decisions 

 

 

No real decision...  watch Josh Allen live and watch Jack's after

[Billsfan1972]

32 minutes ago, wjag said:

And I am still pissed about that.  I paid good money to go to that game.  

Good news is, no one is paying good money this week......😉

[YoloinOhio]

15 minutes ago, gordong said:

No real decision...  watch Josh Allen live and watch Jack's after

I haven’t seen Jack in so long 

[gordong]

1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

I haven’t seen Jack in so long 

same... hearing really good news on Dahlin...  got bigger and stronger.   Be nice if the sabres could turn the corner here this year as well... we still need a goalie IMHO

[Billsfan1972]

31 minutes ago, Conlan58 said:

Your definition of crap the bed must be way different than mine. They gave up a 16-0 lead, and only put up 19 points against a weak defense that was allowing over 24 points a game all year. They crapped the freaking bed. Play to win the game and lock up #2 seed. 

 

What was it, the first pass attempt to Bease after Allen was pulled that he got hurt? Football is football, players get hurt, but i'm willing to bet Bease is just fine if Allen was still in the game at that point. Nursing an injury? Sure - rest. Healthy? Play. 

Again don't get me started about the Houston game.

 

That was solely on the Old McD's coaching philosophy and coaching between the 20's and rely on the Defense.  

 

If he coached that game like he has this year the Bills win by 14 minimum.

[gordong]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Again don't get me started about the Houston game.

 

That was solely on the Old McD's coaching philosophy and coaching between the 20's and rely on the Defense.  

 

If he coached that game like he has this year the Bills win by 14 minimum.

Im going to be interested to see if this changes when we reach the playoff's I sure hope not....   and I agree with you.

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by gordong

[Pokebball]

11 hours ago, DolFAN93 said:

Tua and Herbert are different prospects. I wouldn't expect the prototypical player to have the same weaknesses as a short left-handed QB. Tua almost knocked out the Cheifs as well. It didn't happen for either.

 

I don't think height is an issue either. His lack of mobility is. The fact that he isn't mobile to go along with a young and inexperienced OL has been hard to watch at times. 

 

I read the article and it didn't tell me anything that I didn't already know. If anything it just reiterates what we already know, prototypical QBs translates better in the NFL.

Tua had little to do, if anything, in Miami almost knocking off the Chiefs.  Please explain otherwise

[DolFAN93]

9 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

Tua had little to do, if anything, in Miami almost knocking off the Chiefs.  Please explain otherwise

Huh? Miami was down 30-10 at the end of the 3rd. Tua lead the offense to 17 points, passing and rushing TD, in the fourth quarter. 

[ndirish1978]

I just want what is best in life for us vs the Dolphins

[Pokebball]

58 minutes ago, Adamb412 said:

I'm sorry I may be the minority but I think the bills should sit everyone this week. With the Steelers most likely going to lose to the browns, what do the bills really have to play for? And worst case scenario the bills lose and steelers win, and the bills and steelers meet in the 2nd round it's not like going to pittsburgh is scary, especially with the fan and covid restrictions. And what is that an hour plane ride? Not even.... McDermott sit everyone

I think McD starts the game with the first team.  The strategy would be to build as much of a lead as possible, while monitoring the Steelers game.  Towards a plan of sitting the starters in the second half.  I really think leadership wants a second home game, even if fans won't be allowed.  We'll see.