SageAgainstTheMachine Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 (edited) If I'd have told you the Bills would be in 3rd place at the bye you probably would have hugged me. If I'd have told you the Bills would be a half game ahead of 9th place at the bye you probably would have socked me in the jaw, and I probably would have said "Hey, what was that for?" and you probably would have said "The Bills underachieving" and I probably would have said "Well don't take it out on me" and you probably would have said "You're right. It's not your fault." Well as it turns out both are true, with an unprecedented nine teams at 6-3 or better in the AFC. It's a pretty polarized situation as you have two teams (Steelers and Chiefs) who are virtual locks for the playoffs and seven teams that may as well be mathematically eliminated (mayyybe the Pats could pull it off but they need to go 6-1 and they just don't have a talented enough roster in my opinion). That leaves 5 playoff spots for the following 7 teams... Bills 7-3 Colts 6-3 Raiders 6-3 Dolphins 6-3 Ravens 6-3 Browns 6-3 Titans 6-3 Unlike, say, the Bears who started 5-1 but just didn't pass the eye test as a playoff team, I'd say there isn't a single team on this list that you'd call a safe bet to drop off the map. I personally believe the Browns are the worst team of the bunch but they have the easiest remaining schedule with games remaining against the Eagles, Jags, Jets and Giants. All in all, it's pretty weird to look at this season's success and still be that close to the outside looking in. But how close is it really? Let's take a look... Now obviously the best way to stay above the fray here is to win the division. Our big advantage there is that the first tiebreaker is head to head and we already beat the Dolphins once. That means Week 17 will be a win-and-in for the Bills if we're tied with them or trailing by 1 game. If we're leading them by 1 game it will already be clinched if we beat the Patriots seeing as the second tiebreaker is division record and we sit at 4-0 while the Fins are 2-2. On a personal level as a fan who started watching in 2001 I want to see Buffalo at the top of the division, but it'll be sweeter next season with fans in attendance. The notion of a home playoff game this particular year is more about getting the easier opponent in Round 1 than anything. But let's say the Dolphins just keep blocking punts and taking back INTs and Tua's great and they go 13-3. How does the rest of the conference shake out? The good news is that several of those 6-3 teams play one another down the stretch, whereas we play none of them except the Dolphins The key matchups are... Week 11 - Titans vs Ravens Week 12 - Titans vs Colts Week 13 - Browns vs Titans Week 14 - Colts vs Raiders, Ravens vs Browns Week 16 - Dolphins vs Raiders Assuming there are no ties, that's 6 losses automatically into the fold. Until the situation further plays out, it really doesn't matter to us who wins those games other than the consideration that the Titans have the tiebreaker on us so we probably want them to win that division over the Colts. Then you have the games remaining between the logjam teams and the Superbowl contender types. Those are... Week 11 - Chiefs vs Raiders, Packers vs Colts Week 12 - Steelers vs Ravens Week 14 - Chiefs vs Dolphins Week 16 - Steelers vs Colts Week 17 - Steelers vs Browns That's another 6 games where there are conservatively at least 4 impending losses. (We, of course, play the Steelers as well). This isn't even to mention that inevitably some of the lower AFC teams and mid-level NFC teams will score spoiler wins for us. In other words it's not as if ALL of these teams will be sitting at 11-5 by season's end even though they're all technically on pace for it. I believe at least one will be at 9-7 (odds on favorite, the Titans), with a solid chance of the 8th place team being 10-6 if the bottom of the AFC continues to disappoint. So where does that leave the Bills chances over their final 6 games? Basically this: (Note: I'm aware that this is educated guess speculation, not math. There are literally millions of permutations of what could happen, but I'm talking about what's likely to happen) 6-0 - Division Crown 5-1 - Division Crown 4-2 - Wildcard lock, solid chance at division 3-3 - Solid chance at wildcard, tossup for division 2-4 - Outside shot at wildcard, lose division 1-5 - Miss playoffs 0-6 - Miss playoffs In conclusion - the scary looking wall of 6-3 teams isn't actually all that scary. We only miss the playoffs by playing a lot worse than we have for the first 10 games and if that's the case I don't really want to see the team rewarded by backing in anyway. Edited November 18, 2020 by SageAgainstTheMachine 8 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCNC Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Thanks for calming me down. 🤠 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Five Thirty Eight has us with an 87% chance to make playoffs, and 75% to win the Division. Which is basically a regression analysis of what the OP posted, and quantifies the odds. 3 minutes ago, High Football IQ said: Good posting....you are definitely going to see at least one 10+ win team not make the playoffs this year in the AFC which is crazy considering the expanded format. And considering teams like the Raiders and Browns remaining schedules it's highly probable they both win at least 10 games and both could be on the outside looking in. In regards to the Bills, the good news is that even if the current trends continue and the Dolphins take the division, we've already beat the Raiders which is key for tiebreakers. However we lost to Ten so if Indy wins the division which I think will happen they fall into the WC mix and have the head to head over the Bills. We don't play the Ravens or Browns so can't do anything about them and even if we beat the Steelers they are likely winning the division so don't help for WC tiebreakers either. Crazy stuff but it's probably safe to say the SB winner is definitely coming out of the AFC this year and will be one of the top 3 teams (PIT, KC or MIA). Please stop. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted November 18, 2020 Author Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Casey D said: Five Thirty Eight has us with an 87% chance to make playoffs, and 75% to win the Division. Which is basically a regression analysis of what the OP posted, and quantifies the odds. Football Outsiders has the same 87% chance at the playoffs but 69% at the division. It's hard for me to wrap my mind around 87% with a half game lead (especially given our BBFS) but I believe it holds water. The Bills control their destiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick the Greek Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 An easier way to look at it is we have to beat out the dolphins for the division. Forget the rest of the AFC teams. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 22 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said: Football Outsiders has the same 87% chance at the playoffs but 69% at the division. It's hard for me to wrap my mind around 87% with a half game lead (especially given our BBFS) but I believe it holds water. The Bills control their destiny. The Bills only play 2 teams with a winning record, and they play the Dolphins at home. Projecting an 11-5 record seems right, and from that flows the playoff odds. Not making the playoffs at 11-5 is miniscule, notwithstanding all the 6-3 teams. It always looks about now that 10-6 won't get you in for sure, and that usually ends up being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Krentist Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 When does the playoff machine become available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillies Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Win every game the rest of the way (including vs undefeated Steelers) No analysis or models needed. Go Bills. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills fan since 87 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said: If I'd have told you the Bills would be in 3rd place at the bye you probably would have hugged me. If I'd have told you the Bills would be a half game ahead of 9th place at the bye you probably would have socked me in the jaw, and I probably would have said "Hey, what was that for?" and you probably would have said "The Bills underachieving" and I probably would have said "Well don't take it out on me" and you probably would have said "You're right. It's not your fault." Well as it turns out both are true, with an unprecedented nine teams at 6-3 or better in the AFC. It's a pretty polarized situation as you have two teams (Steelers and Chiefs) who are virtual locks for the playoffs and seven teams that may as well be mathematically eliminated (mayyybe the Pats could pull it off but they need to go 6-1 and they just don't have a talented enough roster in my opinion). That leaves 5 playoff spots for the following 7 teams... Bills 7-3 Colts 6-3 Raiders 6-3 Dolphins 6-3 Ravens 6-3 Browns 6-3 Titans 6-3 Unlike, say, the Bears who started 5-1 but just didn't pass the eye test as a playoff team, I'd say there isn't a single team on this list that you'd call a safe bet to drop off the map. I personally believe the Browns are the worst team of the bunch but they have the easiest remaining schedule with games remaining against the Eagles, Jags, Jets and Giants. All in all, it's pretty weird to look at this season's success and still be that close to the outside looking in. But how close is it really? Let's take a look... Now obviously the best way to stay above the fray here is to win the division. Our big advantage there is that the first tiebreaker is head to head and we already beat the Dolphins once. That means Week 17 will be a win-and-in for the Bills if we're tied with them or trailing by 1 game. If we're leading them by 1 game it will already be clinched if we beat the Patriots seeing as the second tiebreaker is division record and we sit at 4-0 while the Fins are 2-2. On a personal level as a fan who started watching in 2001 I want to see Buffalo at the top of the division, but it'll be sweeter next season with fans in attendance. The notion of a home playoff game this particular year is more about getting the easier opponent in Round 1 than anything. But let's say the Dolphins just keep blocking punts and taking back INTs and Tua's great and they go 13-3. How does the rest of the conference shake out? The good news is that several of those 6-3 teams play one another down the stretch, whereas we play none of them except the Dolphins The key matchups are... Week 11 - Titans vs Ravens Week 12 - Titans vs Colts Week 13 - Browns vs Titans Week 14 - Colts vs Raiders, Ravens vs Browns Week 16 - Dolphins vs Raiders Assuming there are no ties, that's 6 losses automatically into the fold. Until the situation further plays out, it really doesn't matter to us who wins those games other than the consideration that the Titans have the tiebreaker on us so we probably want them to win that division over the Colts. Then you have the games remaining between the logjam teams and the Superbowl contender types. Those are... Week 11 - Chiefs vs Raiders, Packers vs Colts Week 12 - Steelers vs Ravens Week 14 - Chiefs vs Dolphins Week 16 - Steelers vs Colts Week 17 - Steelers vs Browns That's another 6 games where there are conservatively at least 4 impending losses. (We, of course, play the Steelers as well). This isn't even to mention that inevitably some of the lower AFC teams and mid-level NFC teams will score spoiler wins for us. In other words it's not as if ALL of these teams will be sitting at 11-5 by season's end even though they're all technically on pace for it. I believe at least one will be at 9-7 (odds on favorite, the Titans), with a solid chance of the 8th place team being 10-6 if the bottom of the AFC continues to disappoint. So where does that leave the Bills chances over their final 6 games? Basically this: (Note: I'm aware that this is educated guess speculation, not math. There are literally millions of permutations of what could happen, but I'm talking about what's likely to happen) 6-0 - Division Crown 5-1 - Division Crown 4-2 - Wildcard lock, solid chance at division 3-3 - Solid chance at wildcard, tossup for division 2-4 - Outside shot at wildcard, lose division 1-5 - Miss playoffs 0-6 - Miss playoffs In conclusion - the scary looking wall of 6-3 teams isn't actually all that scary. We only miss the playoffs by playing a lot worse than we have for the first 10 games and if that's the case I don't really want to see the team rewarded by backing in anyway. Great write up! Love this kind of stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Call_Of_Ktulu Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 So your saying the loss to the Cards is ***** huge. If we miss the playoffs because of a Hail Mary into the end zone I will freaking lose it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said: If I'd have told you the Bills would be in 3rd place at the bye you probably would have hugged me. If I'd have told you the Bills would be a half game ahead of 9th place at the bye you probably would have socked me in the jaw, and I probably would have said "Hey, what was that for?" and you probably would have said "The Bills underachieving" and I probably would have said "Well don't take it out on me" and you probably would have said "You're right. It's not your fault." Sage!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This was a fantastic write-up and thanks for putting the work into it. GO BEELS!!!!!!!!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Sage, thanks bud. I wouldn’t get wrapped around the axle. At worst, we should be 4-2, but opposing teams now have tape on Tua. It will get harder on him throughout the year, and they Still have the Chiefs. When I think about all the scenarios, this comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Bills have an 85% chance to make the playoffs so I will take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsherd Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said: If I'd have told you the Bills would be in 3rd place at the bye you probably would have hugged me. If I'd have told you the Bills would be a half game ahead of 9th place at the bye you probably would have socked me in the jaw, and I probably would have said "Hey, what was that for?" and you probably would have said "The Bills underachieving" and I probably would have said "Well don't take it out on me" and you probably would have said "You're right. It's not your fault." Well as it turns out both are true, with an unprecedented nine teams at 6-3 or better in the AFC. It's a pretty polarized situation as you have two teams (Steelers and Chiefs) who are virtual locks for the playoffs and seven teams that may as well be mathematically eliminated (mayyybe the Pats could pull it off but they need to go 6-1 and they just don't have a talented enough roster in my opinion). That leaves 5 playoff spots for the following 7 teams... Bills 7-3 Colts 6-3 Raiders 6-3 Dolphins 6-3 Ravens 6-3 Browns 6-3 Titans 6-3 Unlike, say, the Bears who started 5-1 but just didn't pass the eye test as a playoff team, I'd say there isn't a single team on this list that you'd call a safe bet to drop off the map. I personally believe the Browns are the worst team of the bunch but they have the easiest remaining schedule with games remaining against the Eagles, Jags, Jets and Giants. All in all, it's pretty weird to look at this season's success and still be that close to the outside looking in. But how close is it really? Let's take a look... Now obviously the best way to stay above the fray here is to win the division. Our big advantage there is that the first tiebreaker is head to head and we already beat the Dolphins once. That means Week 17 will be a win-and-in for the Bills if we're tied with them or trailing by 1 game. If we're leading them by 1 game it will already be clinched if we beat the Patriots seeing as the second tiebreaker is division record and we sit at 4-0 while the Fins are 2-2. On a personal level as a fan who started watching in 2001 I want to see Buffalo at the top of the division, but it'll be sweeter next season with fans in attendance. The notion of a home playoff game this particular year is more about getting the easier opponent in Round 1 than anything. But let's say the Dolphins just keep blocking punts and taking back INTs and Tua's great and they go 13-3. How does the rest of the conference shake out? The good news is that several of those 6-3 teams play one another down the stretch, whereas we play none of them except the Dolphins The key matchups are... Week 11 - Titans vs Ravens Week 12 - Titans vs Colts Week 13 - Browns vs Titans Week 14 - Colts vs Raiders, Ravens vs Browns Week 16 - Dolphins vs Raiders Assuming there are no ties, that's 6 losses automatically into the fold. Until the situation further plays out, it really doesn't matter to us who wins those games other than the consideration that the Titans have the tiebreaker on us so we probably want them to win that division over the Colts. Then you have the games remaining between the logjam teams and the Superbowl contender types. Those are... Week 11 - Chiefs vs Raiders, Packers vs Colts Week 12 - Steelers vs Ravens Week 14 - Chiefs vs Dolphins Week 16 - Steelers vs Colts Week 17 - Steelers vs Browns That's another 6 games where there are conservatively at least 4 impending losses. (We, of course, play the Steelers as well). This isn't even to mention that inevitably some of the lower AFC teams and mid-level NFC teams will score spoiler wins for us. In other words it's not as if ALL of these teams will be sitting at 11-5 by season's end even though they're all technically on pace for it. I believe at least one will be at 9-7 (odds on favorite, the Titans), with a solid chance of the 8th place team being 10-6 if the bottom of the AFC continues to disappoint. So where does that leave the Bills chances over their final 6 games? Basically this: (Note: I'm aware that this is educated guess speculation, not math. There are literally millions of permutations of what could happen, but I'm talking about what's likely to happen) 6-0 - Division Crown 5-1 - Division Crown 4-2 - Wildcard lock, solid chance at division 3-3 - Solid chance at wildcard, tossup for division 2-4 - Outside shot at wildcard, lose division 1-5 - Miss playoffs 0-6 - Miss playoffs In conclusion - the scary looking wall of 6-3 teams isn't actually all that scary. We only miss the playoffs by playing a lot worse than we have for the first 10 games and if that's the case I don't really want to see the team rewarded by backing in anyway. Great write up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALLEN1QB Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Fasten your seat belt it's about to get real people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 We have already picked up a game nobody expected us to win in the Seahawks......still have games in the AFC East to play We are in a good position 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No_Matter_What Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 7 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said: So where does that leave the Bills chances over their final 6 games? Basically this: (Note: I'm aware that this is educated guess speculation, not math. There are literally millions of permutations of what could happen, but I'm talking about what's likely to happen) 6-0 - Division Crown 5-1 - Division Crown 4-2 - Wildcard lock, solid chance at division 3-3 - Solid chance at wildcard, tossup for division 2-4 - Outside shot at wildcard, lose division 1-5 - Miss playoffs 0-6 - Miss playoffs In conclusion - the scary looking wall of 6-3 teams isn't actually all that scary. We only miss the playoffs by playing a lot worse than we have for the first 10 games and if that's the case I don't really want to see the team rewarded by backing in anyway. Nice summary but I'd be little more precise with conclusions. I think it is quite a bit better than you present it: 6-0 - Division Crown 5-1 - Division Crown 4-2 - Wildcard lock, great chance at division even if one loss is against the Dolphins, virtual lock of division if we win against them 3-3 - Great chance at wildcard (actually almost lock), tossup for division if loss is against the Dolphins, great chance at division if we win against them 2-4 - Outside shot at wildcard, lose division 1-5 - Miss playoffs 0-6 - Miss playoffs I also wouldn't call our chances at 2-4 as "outside", we have very reasonable chance to get there with 9-7 even if we win "wrong" games, i.e. 49ers in this scenario. But if we win "right" games, i.e. Dolphins and Pats, we have like 70%+ chance to get in (and its still tossup if Dolphins somehow win all other games). As far as PO is concerned, we are in good shape even we are mediocre from now on (which I don't think will happen, I expect us to win 4+ games). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utah John Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 The NFL gave the AFCE teams the killer schedule this year. In past years, we'd have been lucky to win one of the three western team games we did (Seattle, Rams, Raiders, all of which have very good teams). We lost to the Chiefs and Cardinals, both very good teams. And now we're through the mid-season gauntlet we were all afraid of. Of the remaining six games, only the Steelers looks to be a likely loss. The Bills must be favored to beat the sinking Chargers and the flailing Broncos. They are better than the injured 49ers and Patriots, although those are both away games. And then it comes down to Miami. Miami plays the Chiefs, Patriots and Raiders, three in a row, and if they can win all three of those then hats off to them. More likely they lose two of those games. I think we'll head into the final game with both teams at 10-5. Did anyone mention that the final game is in balmy, sunny, Orchard Park in early January? And that if we beat the Pats, we win the division even if we finish with the same record as Miami? I say the Bills still have the inside track to the AFCE crown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 10 hours ago, Nick the Greek said: An easier way to look at it is we have to beat out the dolphins for the division. Forget the rest of the AFC teams. and they have the easier schedule still, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kwai San Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 @SageAgainstTheMachine Oh what a tangled web you wove! Awesome effort and THANKS! I can not imagine how long that took to craft together..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreezeMafia Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 (edited) My man, to early. Yes Dolphins have won games, but D and ST touchdowns just dont and wont happen every week. They will have a hiccup along the way. I don't see the Dolphins beating KC at home, LV on the road (LV is fighting for playoffs as well), nor do I see them coming to Buffalo and winning week 17. Edited November 18, 2020 by BillsinChesterSprings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Call_Of_Ktulu Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 I would like to see a full screen replay of Tre Whites feet just to see if they were really 10 inches off the ground. I guess that's why he wants to start a goalie academy because goalies don't have to jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4_kidd_4 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 is head to head the division tie breaker? i thought it was division record first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreezeMafia Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, colin said: is head to head the division tie breaker? i thought it was division record first #1 - Head to Head #2 - Division Record 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just now, BillsinChesterSprings said: #1 - Head to Head #2 - Division Record boooo! well, that means that any likely season outcome where we beat miami in week 17 gets us the division at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreezeMafia Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, colin said: boooo! well, that means that any likely season outcome where we beat miami in week 17 gets us the division at the least. As long as the Bills take care of business vs LAC, SF, DEN, we should be fine. I am marking Pitt and at NE losses. For Miami, they should take care of DEN, NYJ, CIN, NE at home. I am marking KCC and at LV (LV is in the playoff hunt as well) as losses. If these scenario's play out, then, yes week 17 winner take all for the Division. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Very nice write up! What you realize the more you study it is that the other teams all have to play tough games going down the stretch too. In short, they’re aren’t ALL going to sweep the final six. I like the Bills chances. It’ll actually be fun to sit out this week and see where the logjam ends up by next Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 A team to keep an eye that gets overlooked is the Colts. They have solid D and strong OL. Rivers can still be a solid QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando Tim Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 As you have pointed at we are 7-3 having already played the toughest part of our schedule. It is almost like the reverse of last year when I told my wife I expect 7-3 to become 10-6. I expect 7-3 to be 12-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said: As you have pointed at we are 7-3 having already played the toughest part of our schedule. It is almost like the reverse of last year when I told my wife I expect 7-3 to become 10-6. I expect 7-3 to be 12-4. They should beat the Chargers to go 8-3. You can also say they should beat Denver as well. The rest of the schedule will be tough. Road games at NE and SF are challenging. Pitt is obviously a tough game. Miami could be for the division. I see 4-2 or 3-3 as a worse case scenario. I have them at 10 or 11 wins. I think they beat LAC, DEN, split the NE and SF games, lose to Pitt, beat the fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No_Matter_What Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 (edited) According to this calculator https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html, we have now 84% chance to make playoffs. It can go as low as 77% during our bye, and as high as 89%, with Dolphins @ Broncos being most important game ofc. Edit: One more comment - there is an outside shot that we will play with Miami W17 for the division and then face them in Wild Card round. I wonder if that ever happened in the history (I guess it has). Edited November 18, 2020 by No_Matter_What Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando Tim Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Greg S said: They should beat the Chargers to go 8-3. You can also say they should beat Denver as well. The rest of the schedule will be tough. Road games at NE and SF are challenging. Pitt is obviously a tough game. Miami could be for the division. I see 4-2 or 3-3 as a worse case scenario. I have them at 10 or 11 wins. I think they beat LAC, DEN, split the NE and SF games, lose to Pitt, beat the fish. You and me are not far off of each other, I think we are clearly better than NE and SF is so beat up we win there also. If SF had Kittle and whole team it would be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessTruster Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 5 hours ago, BillsinChesterSprings said: As long as the Bills take care of business vs LAC, SF, DEN, we should be fine. I am marking Pitt and at NE losses. For Miami, they should take care of DEN, NYJ, CIN, NE at home. I am marking KCC and at LV (LV is in the playoff hunt as well) as losses. If these scenario's play out, then, yes week 17 winner take all for the Division. that would be so cool. When is the last time a Bills/Phins game really really meant something? 20+ years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 6 hours ago, 4_kidd_4 said: He fixes the cable? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Bills only have 1 more loss on the schedule... Not worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 5 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said: As you have pointed at we are 7-3 having already played the toughest part of our schedule. It is almost like the reverse of last year when I told my wife I expect 7-3 to become 10-6. I expect 7-3 to be 12-4. Late bye is kinda nice too since the team is absolutely banged up. Getting milano and even dodson back will help. Kleins starting to play more physical, edmunds has been playing more aggressive as well. Maybe we'll have our starting secondary out there for a snap this season. Linemen are basically always banged up during the season too so a week off might be nice for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, TBBills said: Bills only have 1 more loss on the schedule... Not worried I still think NE and SF will be tough games. NE almost won in OP. My guess is a 4-2 finish is most likely. 3-3 worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Luckily the Bills have beaten two of those teams and are a half game ahead of all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick the Greek Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 14 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said: and they have the easier schedule still, I believe. That’s why you play the game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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