Dropped screen pass

[Mickey]

On 11/15/2020 at 10:24 PM, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

As I recall, the pass could have been a little better— it was too far out in front of him. 

 

Just what I am looking for in a RB, a guy who only catches perfect passes.

[Dr. K]

Yes, the running attack has been way sub-standard, and Singletary should have caught that pass.

 

But Singletary is a much better back than he has been showing lately, and better than those in this thread who want him gone believe. 

[Augie]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

Was this in the 3rd quarter?

 

The Bills don't do much in the 3rd

 

It’s all part of the process. We are saving ourselves for the 4th quarter! Josh SHOULD have had yet another 4th quarter comeback. But freaky stuff intervened.....buggers! 

[Hampton Josh fan]

Singletary has been a major disappointment. He seems tentative and a bit slow. Moss has become the featured, prime time option. The Bills should get him out on screens early so he can get going with confidence. The O-line has not opened holes regularly,  but running with Motor has not been too successful. 

[wvbillsfan]

We got a fella who is never active. He’s pretty good at catching the ball out of the backfield. 
No chance they switch it up tho 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

15 hours ago, billsfan_34 said:

Blocking has not been good at all. Hopefully Morse comes back and we can slide Feliciano back to guard. It seems Cody Ford just doesn’t have the feet/speed to pull or get on the edge- mildly disappointed but he is year 2 so not ready to throw in the towel on him.

 

back to the backs- we need a back with more burst that can throttle to the second gear for a home run. We have to take some pressure off Allen.

 

I dunno that foot speeds whats killing the run game.  I know the rankings for the last 2 years show a solid running team, but them (and this team for that matter) are propped up with a scrambling QB. 

 

Without Allens scrambles this is probably among the worst rushing attacks in the NFL - and that's with a game against NE where the backs put up about 160 yards.  Whatever they saw from Boettger made them consider wanting to keep him in the lineup, but they didn't do nearly as well in this one.

 

Singletary averaged 5.1 a carry last year, and moss definitely has more burst than gore did.  The blocking hasn't been as good, and it has probably affected RB's timing and vision.  So basically everythings outta whack and nothings really working.  

[dave mcbride]

54 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I dunno that foot speeds whats killing the run game.  I know the rankings for the last 2 years show a solid running team, but them (and this team for that matter) are propped up with a scrambling QB. 

 

Without Allens scrambles this is probably among the worst rushing attacks in the NFL - and that's with a game against NE where the backs put up about 160 yards.  Whatever they saw from Boettger made them consider wanting to keep him in the lineup, but they didn't do nearly as well in this one.

 

Singletary averaged 5.1 a carry last year, and moss definitely has more burst than gore did.  The blocking hasn't been as good, and it has probably affected RB's timing and vision.  So basically everythings outta whack and nothings really working.  

I know the numbers don't show it, but Moss looks pretty good to me. Interestingly, here's what Albert Breer, who I really like, wrote in his SI MMQB column on Monday:

 

1) I think Zack Moss needs to be the bell cow for Buffalo coming out of the bye.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/11/16/arizona-cardinals-hail-mary-kyler-murray-deandre-hopkins-believable 

[No_Matter_What]

16 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Was this in the 3rd quarter?

 

The Bills don't do much in the 3rd

No it was in 2nd.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

29 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I know the numbers don't show it, but Moss looks pretty good to me. Interestingly, here's what Albert Breer, who I really like, wrote in his SI MMQB column on Monday:

 

1) I think Zack Moss needs to be the bell cow for Buffalo coming out of the bye.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/11/16/arizona-cardinals-hail-mary-kyler-murray-deandre-hopkins-believable 

 

I have to agree.  His single cut style is better suited to the offensive line's play currently, he can also run through some of the arm tackles a bit more.  Singletary is someone you want in 1x1s in space... right now we aren't getting those.  Teams aren't playing as much man coverage, and they're crowding the LOS. 

 

In man coverage vs. a LB, i love a swing pass to singletary because i think he can either get the edge or force the LB to miss.  With guys swarming the LOS, one cut styles will work better since you want to try and attack the 2nd level with speed.

Edited November 18, 2020 by dneveu

[SCBills]

Not sure what to do with, or what the deal is, with Devin Singletary.  He doesn't look dynamic at all this year and has already muffed two big plays, both coming at crucial times in games we lost.  

 

On the other hand, Zack Moss looks impressive, both in his one cut - power running ability and as a receiver.  

 

I'd be tempted to move on from Singletary after this season, if he doesn't figure it out, and pair Moss with a speed back.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

48 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Not sure what to do with, or what the deal is, with Devin Singletary.  He doesn't look dynamic at all this year and has already muffed two big plays, both coming at crucial times in games we lost.  

 

On the other hand, Zack Moss looks impressive, both in his one cut - power running ability and as a receiver.  

 

I'd be tempted to move on from Singletary after this season, if he doesn't figure it out, and pair Moss with a speed back.

 

I'm more inclined to figure out why we've sucked at running the ball for 3 years under daboll.  It can't just be the backs, is it the plays?  The line?  etc.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I know the numbers don't show it, but Moss looks pretty good to me. Interestingly, here's what Albert Breer, who I really like, wrote in his SI MMQB column on Monday:

 

1) I think Zack Moss needs to be the bell cow for Buffalo coming out of the bye.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/11/16/arizona-cardinals-hail-mary-kyler-murray-deandre-hopkins-believable 

 

Be nice if that wasn't the only thing he said about it

[Agent 91]

On 11/15/2020 at 10:27 PM, Saint Doug said:

RBs are a dime-a-dozen, right? You just plug any late round back in and we’re good, right?

Thank you... got too cute! You can find a scrap heap back but you shouldn't depend on it

[Agent 91]

Statistically Singletary is a better receiver  than last year and about on par with last year rushing. The difference is we don't have Gore to compare him to. And he goes north and south unlike McCoy. He is what we should have known he was. He just isn't an RB1. And that's fine, but you can't continue to use him like he is. We must do better. Its not all the line at all.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, dneveu said:

I'm more inclined to figure out why we've sucked at running the ball for 3 years under daboll.  It can't just be the backs, is it the plays?  The line?  etc.

 

2018 it was definitely the line.  I was trying to figure things out and I would watch most run plays 2-3 times trying to figure out what they were trying to do with the blocking.  Several guys on here were the recipient of late-nite PM pleas "will you look at this play on 2nd and 5, WTF?"

 

2019 was interesting.   The blocking improved, at least I could usually tell what they were trying to do without sending out an SOS.  Motor was actually pretty effective - a bit over 12 attempts/game, 5.1 ypa, 65 ypg.  It's not all world, but for limited action it's acceptable.  The thing we all wondered is why we insisted on running Frank Gore, who seemed to run out of gas mid-October, just after we played Miami and finished the season with almost as many attempts per game, but about half the yardage per game.  Sometimes it seemed to be on the blocking, though.

 

This year the blocking has been atrocious for the most part (except NE).  Early on, Motor seemed to be hesitating but he's doing better at that.  The problem is neither he nor Moss really have the speed to get outside, and we can't seem block consistently between the tackles.  It's not helping that the OL has been switched around so much I'm sure.  But I think there's more going on. 

 

When the coaches apparently challenged the OL's manhood to enable a run-first game against NE, they came through.  NE isn't that bad against the run.  17th in YPA.   But we had little glimpses dropped like Daboll saying they practiced 50 plays on Fri and only 2 were pass plays.

 

I think that's a clue.  I think the Bills offense may typically be focusing so heavily on the pass game in practice that run blocking takes a back seat, which doesn't work with the OL in flux.  I think the Bills wanted to keep the same OL that had played against NE and Sea because they were hoping some of the practice would hold, but I don't think it did.

There's a bunch of interesting stuff about the run game in this One Bills Live piece with Greg Cosell that just went up.  He talks about why he thinks it's important for them to run more, but about 9 minutes in he says a bunch of stuff about the importance of cohesion on the OL and reading between the lines, it seems pretty clear that he feels 1) the Bills run blocking has been poor 2) the Bills have perhaps been trying too hard for variety in the run game, when perhaps they should focus on a couple of things and just be able to execute them to perfection.

 

I think the Bills need to figure something out to get Allen the defensive looks and reps he needs in pass practice, but also get a decent amount of run practice in.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, Agent 91 said:

Statistically Singletary is a better receiver  than last year and about on par with last year rushing. The difference is we don't have Gore to compare him to. And he goes north and south unlike McCoy. He is what we should have known he was. He just isn't an RB1. And that's fine, but you can't continue to use him like he is. We must do better. Its not all the line at all.

 

I disagree with you that it's not the line at all.  But I'm not an expert.  All I can tell you is what I saw on film against NE and what I saw on film against (say) Tenn or KC were very very different as far as the quality of OL play. 

 

Singletary is averaging 4.1 ypc and 40 ypg on about 10 carries per game.  Last year he averaged more carries per game - 12-13 - but he also averaged 5.1 ypc.  I don't think that's on par.

 

The difference between 4.1 ypc and 5.1 ypc is usually regarded as significant.   The top 10 or so backs in the league average >5 ypc.  4.1 ypc is down around 30th.

[Agent 91]

24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I disagree with you that it's not the line at all.  But I'm not an expert.  All I can tell you is what I saw on film against NE and what I saw on film against (say) Tenn or KC were very very different as far as the quality of OL play. 

 

Singletary is averaging 4.1 ypc and 40 ypg on about 10 carries per game.  Last year he averaged more carries per game - 12-13 - but he also averaged 5.1 ypc.  I don't think that's on par.

 

The difference between 4.1 ypc and 5.1 ypc is usually regarded as significant.   The top 10 or so backs in the league average >5 ypc.  4.1 ypc is down around 30th.

If you look at 2019 he only averaged 5 yds a carry 2 times when carrying the ball more than 10 times and then you have to factor in  the final 2 games where he averaged 9.5 on 4 carries against the giants and 17.5 on 6 carries on the jets. In the remaining 8 games he went for about an average of 4.3 per carry. 

Edited November 19, 2020 by Agent 91

[Agent 91]

On 11/15/2020 at 11:13 PM, Gonzonzo said:

I didnt see a lot of holes to run AND the RB get hit once they get the ball, so I believe  the problemes are in the OL.

Even after said that, I think Singletary and Moss need to hit the holes faster.

I honestly haven't seen the all 22 as my mind is trained to think they will randomly plant the last 34 secs of the game somewhere in the middle lol. But I can say that when I usually watch it, there usually, not always, but usually, are creases that open and close fast. I notice Winters is a putz but can pull and the left side with Ford and Dawkins is usually the go to. If you promise they won't manipulate were they put that ending ill try it again

[Agent 91]

On 11/15/2020 at 11:26 PM, Richard Noggin said:

At some point we need to consider that play-calling tendencies, in-game sequencing, might be to blame for some of the blown-up or walled-off runs.

 

Some of those unsuccessful plays seem dead on arrival, which cannot be blamed on the running back. (Of course, there are also examples where the RBs don't hit it up in there.)

 

Increasingly I'm seeing Daboll as a strong teacher and strategist, but a really inconsistent play-caller. He catches defenses off-guard at times, especially early in games. Tends to stall-out, though, as the game progresses and his counterparts can adjust to his usually brilliant gameplan. When something is working, he often goes to the well once too often. 

 

Economists call it diminishing returns, I think. 

 

Other times, like today's 2nd half, he seems to abandon important elements of his own offense. (Did the play-action and creativity diminish for a stretch leading up to that last TD drive? The QB draw, I recall, excited me because it wasn't just a traditional drop-back that I felt we'd been calling for a couple drives. Same thing happened last week when the offense was feeling the Seahawks blitz. They get stuck in a rut.) 

Hell of a thought

Kudos

On 11/15/2020 at 11:29 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

Neither RB is great but Moss is clearly the better back. He attacks the gaps better and doesn't go down easily like 26. And as we keep having this discussion Yeldon sits doing nothing. Unbelievable. 

Lack of Yeldon is criminal. He plays his best game and you sit him. I swore they were gonna move him at the deadline. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

30 minutes ago, Agent 91 said:

If you look at 2019 he only averaged 5 yds a carry 2 times when carrying the ball more than 10 times and then you have to factor in  the final 2 games where he averaged 9.5 on 4 carries against the giants and 17.5 on 6 carries on the jets. In the remaining 8 games he went for about an average of 4.3 per carry. 

 

OK, but what's your point there?  He's had 7 out of 10 games this season where he's gone for an average of 3 ypc then 3 where he averaged over 5 ypc.

So that's still worse.

[Agent 91]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, but what's your point there?  He's had 7 out of 10 games this season where he's gone for an average of 3 ypc then 3 where he averaged over 5 ypc.

So that's still worse.

My point is he wasn't really a 5.1 ypc back last year either. He did his best work in big chunk plays he wasn't getting you a consistent 5.1 a carry. The same way he's not getting you a consistent 4.1 this year. Give him a few big chunk plays and he will be right up there at the same average. We can massage the numbers as you have definitely done research but the point is at this point he's on pace for 150 less yards in 12 games with less carries than he had last season. But he more than makes up for the void in the receiving game. Thats why I say he's par for the course. As a feature. Thats bound to happen. But I THINK you can agree, we need more back there

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

2018 it was definitely the line.  I was trying to figure things out and I would watch most run plays 2-3 times trying to figure out what they were trying to do with the blocking.  Several guys on here were the recipient of late-nite PM pleas "will you look at this play on 2nd and 5, WTF?"

 

2019 was interesting.   The blocking improved, at least I could usually tell what they were trying to do without sending out an SOS.  Motor was actually pretty effective - a bit over 12 attempts/game, 5.1 ypa, 65 ypg.  It's not all world, but for limited action it's acceptable.  The thing we all wondered is why we insisted on running Frank Gore, who seemed to run out of gas mid-October, just after we played Miami and finished the season with almost as many attempts per game, but about half the yardage per game.  Sometimes it seemed to be on the blocking, though.

 

This year the blocking has been atrocious for the most part (except NE).  Early on, Motor seemed to be hesitating but he's doing better at that.  The problem is neither he nor Moss really have the speed to get outside, and we can't seem block consistently between the tackles.  It's not helping that the OL has been switched around so much I'm sure.  But I think there's more going on. 

 

When the coaches apparently challenged the OL's manhood to enable a run-first game against NE, they came through.  NE isn't that bad against the run.  17th in YPA.   But we had little glimpses dropped like Daboll saying they practiced 50 plays on Fri and only 2 were pass plays.

 

I think that's a clue.  I think the Bills offense may typically be focusing so heavily on the pass game in practice that run blocking takes a back seat, which doesn't work with the OL in flux.  I think the Bills wanted to keep the same OL that had played against NE and Sea because they were hoping some of the practice would hold, but I don't think it did.

There's a bunch of interesting stuff about the run game in this One Bills Live piece with Greg Cosell that just went up.  He talks about why he thinks it's important for them to run more, but about 9 minutes in he says a bunch of stuff about the importance of cohesion on the OL and reading between the lines, it seems pretty clear that he feels 1) the Bills run blocking has been poor 2) the Bills have perhaps been trying too hard for variety in the run game, when perhaps they should focus on a couple of things and just be able to execute them to perfection.

 

I think the Bills need to figure something out to get Allen the defensive looks and reps he needs in pass practice, but also get a decent amount of run practice in.

 

 

 

It just feels like every run to the outside is getting blown up.  2nd and 3 becomes 3rd and 7 etc.  They can't be THAT slow - hell, arian foster was slow and he made his money on outside zone.  Whatever is happening on the backside isn't working. 

 

They're also running into like heavy fronts with guys all over the LOS.  I don't think you can run inside zone with 2 LBs in the a-gaps - you should want to get outside since the linebackers are inside, and yet they always seem to end up in our backfield.

[T master]

On 11/15/2020 at 9:18 PM, thenorthremembers said:

He isnt a very good runningback.  There was a lot of green and blockers in front of him.  Neither runningback is very good.

 

WOW where has the excitement gone when both were drafted every one was all excited at the running game possibilities & now neither is very good ? 

[thenorthremembers]

30 minutes ago, T master said:

 

WOW where has the excitement gone when both were drafted every one was all excited at the running game possibilities & now neither is very good ? 

They played downs in the NFL.  Its fairly obvious neither is a lead back.

[Bookie Man]

I think Yeldon should get more pt. It's honestly baffling to me why he never sees the field. He's the biggest and fastest back on the roster. And he's the best receiver, by far. 

[QLBillsFan]

On 11/16/2020 at 1:21 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Correct. For two third round picks the production isn't there. They are both complimentary backs for me. 

 

We still need a true #1 back with acceleration and speed. 

 

And we don't run the football because when we do so it is so ineffective. It becomes self perpetuating.

I couldn’t disagree more. Both RB’s are solid. If you recall Singletary average 5+ yards a carry last year.  OL and lack of commitment by BD. We are throwing and scoring but we need some balance. I expect after they bye and full OL we will see a better run game. 

Edited November 20, 2020 by QLBillsFan

[Bronxbomber21]

I would love to find a game breaking rb in the draft like  Kamara

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

I couldn’t disagree more. Both RB’s are solid. If you recall Singletary average 5+ yards a carry last year.  OL and lack of commitment by BD. We are throwing and scoring but we need some balance. I expect after they bye and full OL we will see a better run game. 

 

I was saying this about Singletary even last year in fairness. He had good production in 2019 but a lot came on some big early season runs his average declined as the year went on and teams got tape on him. He can make people miss in space, but teams know if they set the edge properly he doesn't have the burst to get outside and he is never going to be a dominant inside runner. 

[HOUSE]

On 11/15/2020 at 10:27 PM, Saint Doug said:

RBs are a dime-a-dozen, right? You just plug any late round back in and we’re good, right?

 

I have the dime, send them over

[Plano]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Really don't understand not playing Yeldon. It's mind boggling considering our struggling backs and Yeldons performances when he actually does get playing time.... McD is still pissed at him for fumbling against Cincy in Week 3 of last season. 

someone needs to slam MCD for not playing Yeldon.

 

Absolutely baffling. He would have caught that screen pass for sure.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

8 hours ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

I would love to find a game breaking rb in the draft like  Kamara

 

Is it all kamara?  He's certainly a dynamic player and a great receiver out of the backfield... But Armstead-Peat-McCoy-Ruiz-Ramczyk is one of the best offensive lines in football.

 

Buffalo's is not.

 

Look at elliot - that offensive line was hurt with tons of injuries and sure enough - the game breaking RB looks borderline bad. 

Edited November 20, 2020 by dneveu

[2003Contenders]

Not sure what the deal is with Yeldon -- other than I know that he missed some time earlier this season due to injury. Maybe he still isn't 100%?

 

The front office and coaching staff are clearly aware that the RB corps could be improved. Remember, they were reportedly interested in Fournette during the off-season, and they were one of 3 teams to make a push for L. Bell.

[SirAndrew]

26 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Is it all kamara?  He's certainly a dynamic player and a great receiver out of the backfield... But Armstead-Peat-McCoy-Ruiz-Ramczyk is one of the best offensive lines in football.

 

Buffalo's is not.

 

Look at elliot - that offensive line was hurt with tons of injuries and sure enough - the game breaking RB looks borderline bad. 

That’s the thing people are missing. Show me the running back who performs well on a team with a weak run game scheme and poor blocking. Elite running backs look very average when something is out of place. I don’t understand the harsh criticisms of Singletary around here either. I don’t see either of our backs as having elite potential, but where were all the critics to point out Singletary’s flaws last season ? In fact I recall posts claiming he could become one of the better backs in the league. Suddenly his game is remarkably flawed, and will never translate to the NFL. If you pointed those flaws last season, you probably would have been called an idiot. 
 

There are many successful late round running backs, and even undrafted free agents. Those guys are often able to be more productive than Moss and Singletary, especially with the advantage of a top notch passing game. That’s not a swipe at Singletary and Moss, but an acknowledgment that even if they aren’t great backs, the run game shouldn’t be this bad. That leads me to believe the problems run much deeper than just being the fault of our running backs. Singletary was a good football player in 2019. I had several fans of opponents tell me that we had a good one in Singletary last season. Singletary and Moss deserve some blame, but you also need to look at the line, play calling, and schemes. It’s not the fault of Moss or Singletary they aren’t speed guys. Maybe this spread offense doesn’t fit Motor the way last seasons occasional run heavy scheme did. I’m just not ready to believe that Singletary is suddenly a bad football player. 

[Jay_Fixit]

On 11/18/2020 at 6:54 AM, dave mcbride said:

I know the numbers don't show it, but Moss looks pretty good to me. Interestingly, here's what Albert Breer, who I really like, wrote in his SI MMQB column on Monday:

 

1) I think Zack Moss needs to be the bell cow for Buffalo coming out of the bye.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/11/16/arizona-cardinals-hail-mary-kyler-murray-deandre-hopkins-believable 

Don’t see it. Singletary has been the better back. Which isn’t saying much. Bad year for the running game.

[Mat68]

I would consider playing yeldon more in packages.  Hurry up, spread looks Yeldon is our best back catching and route running.  I feel like I have and many have been saying this since the first Pats game last year.  Idk what he does or doesnt due to lack in snaps.

[Mat68]

14 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Don’t see it. Singletary has been the better back. Which isn’t saying much. Bad year for the running game.

I feel like they have been flip flopping back and forth for a few weeks.  Singeltary has the better vision and ability to make a few more people miss.  If the play is perfectly called Moss has more juice through the hole.  Right now both are inconsistent.  Maybe its rythem, maybe its usage where neither can get going.  

[BADOLBILZ]

On 11/20/2020 at 3:55 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I was saying this about Singletary even last year in fairness. He had good production in 2019 but a lot came on some big early season runs his average declined as the year went on and teams got tape on him. He can make people miss in space, but teams know if they set the edge properly he doesn't have the burst to get outside and he is never going to be a dominant inside runner. 

 

 

There was also some crazy stat about Singletary running against a ton of 6 man boxes while Gore saw almost exclusively stacked ones.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

On 11/19/2020 at 3:02 PM, Agent 91 said:

My point is he wasn't really a 5.1 ypc back last year either. He did his best work in big chunk plays he wasn't getting you a consistent 5.1 a carry. The same way he's not getting you a consistent 4.1 this year. Give him a few big chunk plays and he will be right up there at the same average. We can massage the numbers as you have definitely done research but the point is at this point he's on pace for 150 less yards in 12 games with less carries than he had last season. But he more than makes up for the void in the receiving game. Thats why I say he's par for the course. As a feature. Thats bound to happen. But I THINK you can agree, we need more back there

 

 

That doesn't show he's not a 5.1 YPC back.

 

It shows that he gets yards the same way everyone does, in larger amounts sometimes and smaller amounts in others. Statistics tend to work in the bell curve. You get a few very small values, a few very large, and more towards the middle. 

 

That's not Singletary. That's running backs, football statistics and in the end it's just the way the world works. Look at other RBs, you'll find that nearly all of them have a few games where they get higher stats than normal. So unless you're going to go around and cut off the top three games of every RB, don't do it to Singletary either. He is absolutely a 4.1 YPC guy this year and a 5.1 last year.

 

It would make just as much sense (none) to say that Singletary had two games below 3.0, so he's not really a 4.1 YPC guy, he's actually a 4.4 YPC guy. You say he "wasn't getting a consistent 5.1 a carry." I'd bet you won't find a single player in NFL history with more than 10 carries who consistently gets their average carry. It's a virtual statistical impossibility.

 

Should we say that Derrick Henry isn't really a 4.71 YPC guy because he had three games this year where he was over 5.4 and two when he was over 6.2? Sorry, this is the way stats work. You can't pull out the numbers you don't like, look only at the rest, and then think you've proven anything.

Edited November 22, 2020 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That doesn't show he's not a 5.1 YPC back.

 

It shows that he gets yards the same way everyone does, in larger amounts sometimes and smaller amounts in others. Statistics tend to work in the bell curve. You get a few very small values, a few very large, and more towards the middle. 

 

That's not Singletary. That's running backs, football statistics and in the end it's just the way the world works. Look at other RBs, you'll find that nearly all of them have a few games where they get higher stats than normal. So unless you're going to go around and cut off the top three games of every RB, don't do it to Singletary either. He is absolutely a 4.1 YPC guy this year and a 5.1 last year.

 

It would make just as much sense (none) to say that Singletary had two games below 3.0, so he's not really a 4.1 YPC guy, he's actually a 4.4 YPC guy. You say he "wasn't getting a consistent 5.1 a carry." I'd bet you won't find a single player in NFL history with more than 10 carries who consistently gets their average carry. It's a virtual statistical impossibility.

 

Should we say that Derrick Henry isn't really a 4.71 YPC guy because he had three games this year where he was over 5.4 and two when he was over 6.2? Sorry, this is the way stats work. You can't pull out the numbers you don't like, look only at the rest, and then think you've proven anything.

 

While you are absolutely right on how averages work my concern on Singletary is he has now played 23 games in his career. His best 3 average yards per carry came in his first 4 games. Since then he has only averaged over 6 yards per carry once in 19 games (Patriots a few weeks ago). That isn't just the normal up and down that is a concerning pattern.

 

To me that is simply an impact of NFL teams getting tape on him. If you keep contain he doesn't have that explosive acceleration to beat you to the edge that say a Shady McCoy had in his prime. Devin is great at making people miss in space but getting him to that space is tough and teams are funnelling him between the tackles where he just isn't ever gonna be a dominant back.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While you are absolutely right on how averages work my concern on Singletary is he has now played 23 games in his career. His best 3 average yards per carry came in his first 4 games. Since then he has only averaged over 6 yards per carry once in 19 games (Patriots a few weeks ago). That isn't just the normal up and down that is a concerning pattern.

 

To me that is simply an impact of NFL teams getting tape on him. If you keep contain he doesn't have that explosive acceleration to beat you to the edge that say a Shady McCoy had in his prime. Devin is great at making people miss in space but getting him to that space is tough and teams are funnelling him between the tackles where he just isn't ever gonna be a dominant back.

 

 

I wasn't answering you, Bill. I was referring to something entirely different.

 

As to your point, I don't find it worrying that Singletary didn't live up, particularly, to those first two games, during which he managed 17.5 YPC on four attempts in the first game and 9.5 yards on six attempts in the second game. I mean, in those first two games he managed 127 yards on 10 carries. He was absolutely never going to maintain anything close to that level. 

 

That was simply a small sample size.

 

Did they figure him out after that? Well, enough to stop him from getting 12.7 YPC, yeah. 

 

But as for the rest of last year  - leaving out those first four games just for the sake of argument - in the remainder of the season he went over 5.0 per carry in 4 out of 8 games and over 4.5 in 6 out of the 8. I don't find that concerning. Just the opposite. And again, that's leaving out the first four games, which contained his three best.

 

Instead, I find concerning the weakness of the whole run game this year. I'm hoping that when we finally get Winters on the bench and the best five OLs out there things will look up a bit. That's my best guess as well, but we'll have to see.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 22, 2020 by Thurman#1