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Could AJ Dillon be a younger/cheaper Derrick Henry?


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First off, I think we can all agree that we need a better #2 RB in 2020 to complement Devin Singletary. With all respect to the legend that is Frank Gore, he wore down as the season went on and the coaching staff never seemed to trust Yeldon. Christian Wade remains the wildest of wildcards, but it's very unlikely he could fill this role next year or at least it would be foolish to make that assumption.

 

However, there are several directions in which the team could go to fill this #2 RB spot. I've seen some posters asking McBeane to go big in free agency and sign Derrick Henry who is undoubtedly an excellent player. However, it's been my belief (and I think the past decade or so in the NFL has proven this) that it's unwise to invest huge contracts or high draft picks at the RB position. As I've researched the 2020 draft, I've been targeting names like Zack Moss, LaMichel Perine, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (probably in that order) as perfect fits for the Bills falling somewhere in the 3rd-4th Rounds. 

 

But could there be a potential compromise between these two scenarios (top free agent vs draft)? Is it at least possible for the Bills find a way to get a player like Derrick Henry without sacrificing a huge level or resources? To my knowledge, there is one similarly-sized RB with the stats to match who could be the perfect Thunder to Singletary's slightly slow Lightening for the cost of a 4th-6th Round draft pick. The draft is basically a lottery, but it seems like AJ Dillon could have a chance to make a Henry-like impact at the next level.

 

Dillon is 3 inches shorter than Henry, but outweighs him by 11 POUNDS. Think about that and then watch the highlights below...it's exactly what you'd expect. Nobody wants to tackle this guy. He's not going to be a 4.4 burner, but he has enough speed and enough shiftiness to make guys miss or run over them if they don't. Boston College was not an offensive juggernaut by any means during his time there and defenses were putting 8 guys in the box/keying in on stopping Dillon every week. Despite this, he put up 4,618 rushing/receiving yards and 40 TDs in 3 seasons. From day one, his physicality, pass blocking, and efficiency in short-yardage situations could help this team. All from a player who is 5 years younger than Derrick Henry and will take up about 1/25th of the cap space. 

 

It's not guaranteed he'll be a star or become a Derrick Henry, but I think this guy gives us a chance to zag (have a huge RB) when the rest of the league is zigging (defenses getting smaller and more spread out). I want to see the Bills pass more in general, but Dillon would give us the #2 back we desperately need and it would be well worth a 5th rounder to find out. Go Bills!

 

 

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yeah so I don't know anything about this guy other than the highlight reel you posted, but one thing that jumps out at me and I absolutely love is that he does the minimum move possible to ruin the balance of the defender, then runs right through them, no cute stuff, no dancing, no losing yards a la shady.  That's almost a martial arts type of skillset, and at 240lbs could be a real wrecking ball.  I'd absolutely go after him.  Heck, he could replace Gore and Dimarco

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3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I have him graded as a 5th or 6th rounder 

 

If we can get him for a 6th then 100% yes draft him even if we get a Zach Moss in the 3rd. Having a stable of Young and Cheap RBs is the way to go. Would love to see a RB room with:

 

RB1 - Devin Singletary

RB2 - Zach Moss (Utah)

RB3 - AJ Dillon (Boston College)

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Depends on quite a bit, including how our first couple rounds go, but I like Dillon as a late round option if Moss doesn't last until the 3/4/5 round picks.

 

Had to look at more of his game footage since his highlight reel above didn't have a tremendous amount of between tackle running, since that would primarily be the role he'd be asked to fill in this offense as far as we've seen with Gore. Boundary running isn't a bad thing, since he performed well against ACC in both regards, but he will find most of his calls at the next level b/t the Tackles.

 

Some criticism he's garnered so far is similar to the current/pre-draft criticisms of Henry - that he "takes a second to get the momentum going," and is susceptible to going down if hit early and defenses rally. It's what made Henry disappear for a chunk of his season two years ago, and until the Titans started putting together better PA schemes with Tannehill and a healthier OL, it was also an issue for them this past year. Where Dillon would immediately succeed is against secondary tackling and offset LBs, but he needs momentum moving before he can power through any tackler. It'll be interesting to see how this translates to the next level, especially in a tandem role. My own counter of this criticism is that Henry's center of mass is also higher than Dillon's, it would appear, which bodes better for power running and shedding tackles from front 7 defenders - Dillon's mass concentrates in mid/lower body which is ideal for any power runner and an absolute b**** to tackle. Add that with him being utilized in a tandem role with Singletary, and you remove the one dimensional running scheme that Henry plays in as RB1 that defenses can acclimatize to over the course of a game.

 

16 minutes ago, wppete said:

What round is he projected to go in? 

He's been widely projected in the 5th/6th which is where I'd love to get him at value if possible - I've seen him as high as 4th with obvious caveat being his stock could rise b/t now and the draft. Though I don't anticipate going higher than three at most with the power RBs currently in his class with Taylor/Moss/Perine and other class favorites in Akers/Dobbins.

Edited by ctk232
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walterfootball:

 

BostonCollege_logo.gif A.J. Dillon, RB/FB, Boston College
Height: 6-0. Weight: 245.
Projected 40 Time: 4.59.
Projected Round (2020): 3-5.

2/1/20: Dillon averaged 5.3 yards per carry in 2019 for 1,685 yards with 14 touchdowns. He also made 13 catches for 195 yards and a touchdown. Dillon is a potential rotational power back for the NFL.

 

sounds good in those rounds

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My big question is this...

 

Can he catch?

 

I watched BC twice this year and can’t recall Dillon catching a pass. Gore being used solely for runs between the tackles was likely a big tell for defenses. This team has to move on from that. It’s one reason why I see Perine and Moss as more likely to be targeted. 

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I had the opportunity to watch Dillon throughout his college career and I'm a huge fan of his so take my comments with a grain of salt.  His biggest problem was playing for one of the dumbest head coaches in college football that mismanaged his carries to an enormous detriment of his career.  He was asked to repeatedly run his head into a brick wall when everyone in the stadium new exactly what the play call would be.  Unfortunately he dealt with injuries two years ago (but still produced) and last year had a diminished offensive line.  BC lost their starting quarterback to knee injury at the beginning of last season and the passing game never developed.  To say that he didn't catch passes in college was not necessarily AJ's fault.  The guy is a beast.  I think he'd be a great late round pickup, but like I said, I'm biased.  

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I saw him and the RB from UCLA listed as good fits for the Bills with Motor as people who can bang it inside.  I'd take him.  He's likely a 4th round or later pick due to the bevy of RB's in the draft.  And I'm not worried about his catching right now.  We have Motor and Yeldon for that.  

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With his kind of production in a bad situation, and his impressive tape and potential value, why is he a 5th or 6th rounder?  
 

This is a guy that looks like he should go much earlier than that like 3rd or 4th.

Edited by Alphadawg7
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6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

With his kind of production in a bad situation, and his impressive tape and potential value, why is he a 5th or 6th rounder?  
 

This is a guy that looks like he should go much earlier than that like 3rd or 4th.

The game has changed Alpha

 

Teams look for 3 down backs early... Ones that can catch balls out of the backfield and be a mismatch in multiple formations

 

Lots of really talented runners fall to the 4-5-6 round because they aren't very versatile and teams see them as 2 down runners

 

This is a league that drafted Bishop Sankey in round 2 because he can catch lol I prefer a RB that can ..... Run

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Don’t stop believing, this is exactly the guy I want.  Anything beyond the 3rd is fine with me.  I’m hopeful our first three picks go to a WR in the 1st, Edge Rusher in the 2nd, and another WR in the 3rd.  I know we other interests, but something like this with a battering ram like him is a huge improvement we should see on the field next year.  I’ve beaten the drum probably too often but at least one TE, not Olsen in FA.

 

I don’t if everyone read the article this morning on the argument to tag J. Phillips.  It made me think about it.  

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He’s not Derrick Henry.  Henry has speed.

 

Whomever we add, I hope they can hit home runs.  Singletary is great between the tackles.   We need someone that can hit the corner and be out the door.  I don’t think that Aj Dillon is that guy.  Gotta have some juice

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2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I like him late

 

Not super explosive so idk if he can ever be a gamechanger...

 

But I see a little Brandon Jacobs who had some good seasons

 

 

Oh he’s explosive all right! I watched him play quite a bit and there’s no doubt that he is explosive. What he is not is a gamebreaker. He won’t make long touchdown runs. He’s also very athletic. I’m curious to see how he does at the combine. Given how he does there, I’d be just fine getting him in the fourth round but preferably later.

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7 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

Oh he’s explosive all right! I watched him play quite a bit and there’s no doubt that he is explosive. What he is not is a gamebreaker. He won’t make long touchdown runs. He’s also very athletic. I’m curious to see how he does at the combine. Given how he does there, I’d be just fine getting him in the fourth round but preferably later.

That's why he isn't super explosive lol

 

He is a good athlete and has a nice Burst but not Henry explosiveness

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1 hour ago, NewEra said:

He’s not Derrick Henry.  Henry has speed.

 

Whomever we add, I hope they can hit home runs.  Singletary is great between the tackles.   We need someone that can hit the corner and be out the door.  I don’t think that Aj Dillon is that guy.  Gotta have some juice

Henry 4.54  40

Dillon 4.56 40 coming out of high school

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On 2/14/2020 at 12:01 PM, noacls said:

Love the idea. He ran a 4.56 40 coming out of high school at a Nike. That's a full .1 second faster than Motor. Very impressive

 

He looked faster than expected for 240#. Nice highlights, but my absolute favorite was the first play where he just tosses the tackler. THAT is worse than getting dunked on! 

On 2/14/2020 at 3:58 PM, NewEra said:

He’s not Derrick Henry.  Henry has speed.

 

Whomever we add, I hope they can hit home runs.  Singletary is great between the tackles.   We need someone that can hit the corner and be out the door.  I don’t think that Aj Dillon is that guy.  Gotta have some juice

 

I want productive players, but what I REALLY want is players that put FEAR into the opposing defense. 

 

.

Edited by Augie
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