Another Argument for Bills to Not Build a Billion $ Palace in B/Lo

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

He’s not putting out a billion out of pocket!! He’s probably not putting out half of that. NFL teams are constantly increasing in value but the Bills get a fairly sizable jump with a new stadium. Is it crazy to think that the value of the team increases $250M with a new stadium? That’s roughly, what I expect him to come out of pocket for. If the value jumps by $250M and he is generating more revenue it makes sense for him (depending on the debt he takes on). 

 

 

...why is that so hard for people to understand?......whatever his out of pocket is, he rightfully should expect ROI......and the value jumping by $250 mil because of a new stadium is highly questionable IMO.....

[Boatdrinks]

2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I think even a basic stadium is going to cost if not a billion very close to a billion. The Colts built their stadium in the late 2000's for 792 million dollars. That is a cost of 963 million in 2020 dollars adjusted for inflation. Also the Colts were aided by building before construction costs generally skyrocketed (I think there were various factors that made arenas and stadiums cost a lot more to build in the 2010's as opposed to the 2000's.) 

 

I think even a stadium that costs 950 million to build is still way too much money for a market like Buffalo to spend on a stadium that will sit empty 345 days a year. A 400-500 million dollar stadium renovation for New Era field is just a much better use of money and is much easier to finance. 

 

As another poster pointed out all those teams you mentioned did build new stadiums or massive renovations. I agree with you that if The Ralph is structurally sound I don't see why you would need to do anything and waste money building a new stadium or renovating the current one. Football stadiums sit empty 345 days a year. All I want for a stadium (esp in a market like Buffalo) is that it is a good place to see a game.

 

But the NFL is a business and new stadium and renovated stadiums create more revenue and revenue opportunities. The NFL will always pressure teams to build new stadiums or renovate as their stadiums age. I think the best way to keep the economics happy and not waste nearly as much money is to just do a massive 400-500 million dollar renovation to the Ralph. Make it as modern a stadium as possible and finance it in a way that doesn't cost the tax payers anything other than maybe loans/bonds that get paid back. 

Big stadium renos cost $500 million about a decade or so ago; including the one Erie County chose not to do in favor of the window dressing renovations last time around. You make a lot of assumptions, including that what you want in a stadium matches what the Bills feel they need to increase revenues. It’s highly unlikely these two things intersect where you’d like them to. The Bills are going to do what they feel is the best course to take, not what some fans hope they will do. 

[billsfan89]

11 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Big stadium renos cost $500 million about a decade or so ago; including the one Erie County chose not to do in favor of the window dressing renovations last time around. You make a lot of assumptions, including that what you want in a stadium matches what the Bills feel they need to increase revenues. It’s highly unlikely these two things intersect where you’d like them to. The Bills are going to do what they feel is the best course to take, not what some fans hope they will do. 

 

Arrowhead renovations cost 375 million in 2007 which would adjusted for inflation be just under 500 million in todays dollar even adjusting for increased construction costs in the past decade I think the massive renovations needed to make the Ralph more modern would probably cost 600ish million. But I do agree they are going to push for a new stadium that best aligns with their interest. I am merely saying that I think for a stadium that is going to be empty 345 days a year it is best for the city and the team to go the route or renovations as opposed to building a new stadium that will cost at a minimum a billion dollars. 

[Lurker]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Because they own a business!! I’ve never, in my life, seen a business owner that doesn’t care about how much money they make. I’ve never seen someone say, “I have enough money.” That’s just not the real world. He wants his asset, the Bills, to keep going up in value. He can use public funds to help make that a reality. Of course he is going to do that!!

 

Wrong.   They own an asset...that gets more and more valuable each year.    That, in a nutshell, is the NFL economic model.    It has virtually nothing to do with operating a business, given the financials we periodically see from Green Bay and other tidbits.   

 

And why does it get more valuable?   It sure as shooting has nothing to do with the game day experience or revenue stream.      Ownership exclusivity and TV contract   Full stop.

 

Do you really think a guy like Pegs (or any other owner) would invest $1 billion+ to clear $30-$40 million a year in profit (a guess, based on Green Bay's net income--which was generated with substantially higher ticket prices than Buffalo)??   He'd have to be a moron...

 

https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2019/07/12/green-bay-packers-report-record-revenue-record-expenses-2018/1672592001/

 

 

Edited February 10, 2020 by Lurker

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Lurker said:

 

Wrong.   They own an asset...that gets more and more valuable each year.    That, in a nutshell, is the NFL economic model.    It has virtually nothing to do with operating a business, given the financials we periodically see from Green Bay and other tidbits.   

 

And why does it get more valuable?   It sure as shooting has nothing to do with the game day experience or revenue stream.      Ownership exclusivity and TV contract   Full stop.

 

Do you really think a guy like Pegs (or any other owner) would invest $1 billion+ to clear $30-$40 million a year in profit (a guess, based on Green Bay's net income--which was generated with substantially higher ticket prices than Buffalo)??   He'd have to be a moron...

 

https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2019/07/12/green-bay-packers-report-record-revenue-record-expenses-2018/1672592001/

 

 

He’s not investing $1B!!  The more money the NFL teams make the more valuable the franchise becomes. Would he be a moron to invest $250M to bring in $30M-$40M a year in profit? Keep in mind, that the franchise value will increase at the same time. 

[Lurker]

9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He’s not investing $1B!!  The more money the NFL teams make the more valuable the franchise becomes. Would he be a moron to invest $250M to bring in $30M-$40M a year in profit? Keep in mind, that the franchise value will increase at the same time. 

He invested $1.4 billion when he bought the team from Ralph.   That investment appreciates because of the TV contract (which accounts for the lion's share of NFL revenue) and the exclusivity of being one of only 32.   

 

Getting a measly $30 million net income per year on that investment is bad business.   Getting another $20 million or so by building a new stadium--which is a highly generous estimate, given that debt service would now be a new expense item--doesn't really make the IRR that much more attractive...

 

 

 

Edited February 10, 2020 by Lurker

[RochesterRob]

59 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He’s not putting out a billion out of pocket!! He’s probably not putting out half of that. NFL teams are constantly increasing in value but the Bills get a fairly sizable jump with a new stadium. Is it crazy to think that the value of the team increases $250M with a new stadium? That’s roughly, what I expect him to come out of pocket for. If the value jumps by $250M and he is generating more revenue it makes sense for him (depending on the debt he takes on). 

Toronto? I know no one wants to hear that but that’s probably the most sensical answer. That’s part of the reason though that the renovation route is unlikely. 

  I think that the Pegula's and the NFL already can see just how unpopular one season in Toronto would be without actually doing it.  If they want a US local that would accommodate tens of thousands of fans then they may have to look at playing in the Carrier Dome at least part of that season and perhaps the whole season.  Last I knew UB seated less but would keep the people of WNY somewhat happy.  

[SoCal Deek]

The Chargers have been playing in a 25,000 seat soccer stadium for a couple of years now. It’s not big of a deal. I’d imagine the Bills playing at UB for a single season.

 

With that said I don’t recall how Miami did it. They put that massive roof structure over their seats and I don’t think they missed a season. Anyone recall? 

[May Day 10]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He’s not putting out a billion out of pocket!! He’s probably not putting out half of that. NFL teams are constantly increasing in value but the Bills get a fairly sizable jump with a new stadium. Is it crazy to think that the value of the team increases $250M with a new stadium? That’s roughly, what I expect him to come out of pocket for. If the value jumps by $250M and he is generating more revenue it makes sense for him (depending on the debt he takes on). 

Toronto? I know no one wants to hear that but that’s probably the most sensical answer. That’s part of the reason though that the renovation route is unlikely. 

 

I dont mind toronto if it isnt a dress rehearsal that the bills in toronto series was.

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, corta765 said:

 

Thank you for posting this to show the two of these things are not mutually exclusive. From a pure watching standpoint the Ralph is like you fine no issues. But your in the largest entertainment league in the world where they do anything to make money ... and Buffalo has people jumping through tables lol. That isn't a shot just a point that compared to literally the rest of the league were still in 1995 by revenue standards. The Pegulas are really hard to read because for as much as they talk renovation and a Buffalo fit, I have this gut feeling they would LOVE to be downtown with the rest of their investment. The Byron Brown has already said he wants the team back downtown. Truthfully its a really hard egg to figure out if they do go downtown because you need to somehow keep the cost within reason, have the ability for a good amount of safe tailgating, while also having more family options pre game, with ok access in and out, and a facility that is able to be used more regularly....YIKES lol

 

Many NFL teams practice in one spot but play elsewhere. Carolina are building like a 100 million practice facility that is actually just in South Carolina no where near the stadium. If a stadium was downtown I don't doubt they keep everything else in Orchard Park. My solution to the old stadium is to make it a high end ampitheater/park mix which the area desperately needs.

 

As for reno vs. new I think the one crucial piece is how much the city of Buffalo wants to get the team downtown. The mayor could absolutely use that as another piece of showing the Buffalo revival and that's a lot of money that comes downtown pre and post game etc.. It'll be interesting

There is nothing that shows that a downtown stadium will bring an uptick in economy, nothing shows that

 

Also Buffalo IS already a beautiful city that's been being revitalized for years. It doesn't need a new stadium to do that

 

Buffalo has its own unique feel, from the Gothic revival architecture to the art nouveau and it's a historically beautiful city and the parks

 

Buffalo has had it's own identity and feel for a long long time, we don't need that change to our city by building a palace

 

Whatever they do they do but the city ABSOLUTELY doesn't need it. I live here and love it and wouldn't change anything

Edited February 11, 2020 by Buffalo716

[boater]

7 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Somewhere between 17 and 21 percent of attendees at Bills games are from Southern Ontario

Yes! I always liked Ontario, since my parents rented a summer cottage near Port Colborne. What a great childhood.

 

I'll never forget the Colborne lady with a glass eye who made the best fish fry known to man.

[Albany,n.y.]

14 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Just a thought... 

 

Build a very large geodesic dome around the existing stadium about 1000 - 2000 feet outside the stadium walls and leave it open year round. Fill it with hotel rooms, night clubs, a theatre for films and/or performing arts, rides like bumper cars and a merry go round, an arcade, pool hall, sports museum including busts and highlight vids and memorabilia for all the former Bills on the Wall, gardens, press conference rooms and great restaurants with wings and beef on weck. All of which would be paid for by the merchants and would bring in year round revenues. You wouldn't really need to heat it up to 70 degrees in the Winter and could cool it in the Summer with fans and a retractable roof. I honestly don't know how feasible all of that is, but it would be a great place to hang out and have fun while protected from the rain, wind and snow. You could also put large montors  and speakers around the inner wall of the dome for games and concerts. Solar panels could cover the outer wall of the dome and add a couple wind turbines to defray the cost of all that electricity. Make it nice, though. Don't get cheap. You could charge a nominal entry fee except for ticket holders. Maybe even season's passes.

Here's why it can't be done.  Wipes out too many parking spaces.  Also, the stadium is too close to Abbott rd.  They would have to close the road permanently and the people trying to go south on Abbott would have to re-route like they have to do on gamedays all the time instead of around 10 times a year.  

[bbb]

On 2/8/2020 at 12:33 PM, T master said:

the younger generation being lazy as they are & being less than their tougher relatives that raised them will rather sit in a warm living room watching the game than go to a nice brand new Billion $ stadium just because there is to much effort involved !!

 

Are you kidding?  I think the younger generation makes up 90% of the fans at the stadium.  

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He’s not putting out a billion out of pocket!! He’s probably not putting out half of that. NFL teams are constantly increasing in value but the Bills get a fairly sizable jump with a new stadium. Is it crazy to think that the value of the team increases $250M with a new stadium? That’s roughly, what I expect him to come out of pocket for. If the value jumps by $250M and he is generating more revenue it makes sense for him (depending on the debt he takes on). 

Toronto? I know no one wants to hear that but that’s probably the most sensical answer. That’s part of the reason though that the renovation route is unlikely. 

 

$250 million out of pocket....for a new stadium?

 

 

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

$250 million out of pocket....for a new stadium?

 

 

 

We were hoping you would match?    

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, Augie said:

 

We were hoping you would match?    

 

I'm going to have to drill a few more ho's....

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I'm going to have to drill a few more ho's....

Can we add a poll mid-thread to see which direction the populous thinks this is going to go? You could end up a billionaire, or deep in debt with some new age STD’s that might be hard to treat.....

[Mr. WEO]

4 minutes ago, Augie said:

Can we add a poll mid-thread to see which direction the populous thinks this is going to go? You could end up a billionaire, or deep in debt with some new age STD’s that might be hard to treat.....

 

So it is written....so let it be done!

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

So it is written....so let it be done!

 

The poll, or the STD’s? I think the third option is a bit of a long shot. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Augie said:

 

The poll, or the STD’s? I think the third option is a bit of a long shot. 

 

Yeah, you're right.  But what if Vegas gives me 40:1 odds?!  

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Yeah, you're right.  But what if Vegas gives me 40:1 odds?!  

 

I’m guessing STD’s get even money, but I’m not an expert on that front. 

[corta765]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

There is nothing that shows that a downtown stadium will bring an uptick in economy, nothing shows that

 

Also Buffalo IS already a beautiful city that's been being revitalized for years. It doesn't need a new stadium to do that

 

Buffalo has its own unique feel, from the Gothic revival architecture to the art nouveau and it's a historically beautiful city and the parks

 

Buffalo has had it's own identity and feel for a long long time, we don't need that change to our city by building a palace

 

Whatever they do they do but the city ABSOLUTELY doesn't need it. I live here and love it and wouldn't change anything

my point is politicians use this as something to boast about regardless of the statistics that show it has no positive impact economically.

 

you can guarantee someone would say they helped keep the bills here if a new stadium was made downtown 

[without a drought]

8 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

To sum up this thread

 

Stupid cloud.

[bbb]

I always hear this stuff about it having no economic impact. But I also listen to Tony Kornheiser and Adam Carolla and they’ve both talked about how development and growth happened around the MCI Center and Staples Center, respectively. 

[PromoTheRobot]

15 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

The Chargers have been playing in a 25,000 seat soccer stadium for a couple of years now. It’s not big of a deal. I’d imagine the Bills playing at UB for a single season.

 

With that said I don’t recall how Miami did it. They put that massive roof structure over their seats and I don’t think they missed a season. Anyone recall? 

 

Not a big deal to you because you're likely not one of the 55K+ season ticket holders. You want to be the guy to tell half of them they aren't going get their seats for a year? It would make more sense to play at Penn State's Stadium.

 

But this is a moot discussion because I'm convinced they will not go the renovation route. Why? Because half the stadium is buried in the ground and you can't expand the concourses there.

 

All signs point downtown.

 

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by PromoTheRobot

[purple haze]

2 hours ago, bbb said:

I always hear this stuff about it having no economic impact. But I also listen to Tony Kornheiser and Adam Carolla and they’ve both talked about how development and growth happened around the MCI Center and Staples Center, respectively. 

It sure did.  Both areas are totally different from what they were.  Chinatown was ghost- like at night until Mr. Pollin built MCI Center (Now Capital One Arena).  

 

Staples Center begat L.A. Live.  That complex has given Downtown a different vibe.  It used to be desolate down there after 5pm.  Not anymore. 

 

Difference is those are hoops arena's which hosts so many games/events it leads to people being around the areas.

Edited February 11, 2020 by purple haze

[apuszczalowski]

8 hours ago, purple haze said:

It sure did.  Both areas are totally different from what they were.  Chinatown was ghost- like at night until Mr. Pollin built MCI Center (Now Capital One Arena).  

 

Staples Center begat L.A. Live.  That complex has given Downtown a different vibe.  It used to be desolate down there after 5pm.  Not anymore. 

 

Difference is those are hoops arena's which hosts so many games/events it leads to people being around the areas.

What about Vegas? They are building a football stadium in a desert, but I bet that will really give the City a huge boost, maybe bring in some tourists to the area?

12 hours ago, corta765 said:

my point is politicians use this as something to boast about regardless of the statistics that show it has no positive impact economically.

 

you can guarantee someone would say they helped keep the bills here if a new stadium was made downtown 

Politicians are usually the type that want to boast about things they do.......

I'm sure the ones that are against it will also be boasting about it when things work out and how they knew it would work, as long as their constituents are happy with it.

 

[PromoTheRobot]

31 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

What about Vegas? They are building a football stadium in a desert, but I bet that will really give the City a huge boost, maybe bring in some tourists to the area?

 

 

Vegas is a different animal. As popping a town as it is, it lacked a super-sized venue. That stadium will get used year round.

[BigBuff423]

18 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Vegas is a different animal. As popping a town as it is, it lacked a super-sized venue. That stadium will get used year round.

 

SHHHHHHH!!! Reasoned logic and deduction is not allowed on this board. You can yell at the sky! That's it!

[May Day 10]

It is definitely coming

 

Pegula himself said that a top of the line, state of the art $1-$2 Billion building does not fit the market here.

 

 

It seems like there are 3 choices of location currently everyone is talking about

 

Renovate in place

Build a new facility on-site in Orchard Park

Build Downtown, the most assumed spot is S and E of Cobblestone there.

* - I think over near the 'elbow' of 190 and 90 would be the best spot.  Lots of room and simple to set up the traffic pattern.

 

 

IMO, building a new facility in OP seems like the most cost-effective option for all parties.  Roughly, a major renovation of New Era Field will cost a similar amount as a new 'modest' build on-site, and a renovation is much more restricting than the clean-slate of a new build. There is also the question of where the Bills play during a renovation and the logistics of planning a major construction project in the snowbelt around a football season(s).

 

Downtown, from miles above seems like the obvious move.  However, land acquisition, demolition, updating infrastructure, updating the rail, Buffalo red-tape will add a great deal of cost, like maybe a 50% of the actual stadium price tag.  I think we could be looking at $500K+ of costs before the building itself is taken into account.  As it is now, I leave Sabres games early in the third period when there are only 14,000 people there because I dont want to get stuck in gridlock.     

Money is better spent, and the public ask would be a lot more reasonable in Orchard Park, where most things are in place and there are open lots to build in.  There is also the number of meaningful events that are realistically going to be held in the facility.  It is not enough to have a meaningful impact on businesses downtown.  If it were an MLB ballpark, put it there at all costs.  

 

 

I think an Orchard Park Lucas-Oil-type 'fieldhouse'-style build is the most likely scenario here.  If I could have my choice of a new facility, as much as I love New Era Field, I would love an outdoor, natural grass, semi enclosed/roofed stadium similar to Centurylink. 

 

 

It seems like some concrete details are going to come down this Spring or Summer.  Looking forward to it.  

[TheFunPolice]

all of the infrastructure is in OP

 

Just rebuild there and have everything on one campus. Open air, partially covered, with those cool red lights for night games. 

 

[Chicharito]

So if a complete overhaul of the Ralph is what the pegulas decide to do where would we play for a year while the renovations are being done? I don’t see UB being an option!

[PromoTheRobot]

39 minutes ago, Chicharito said:

So if a complete overhaul of the Ralph is what the pegulas decide to do where would we play for a year while the renovations are being done? I don’t see UB being an option!

 

Penn State?

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, TheFunPolice said:

all of the infrastructure is in OP

 

Just rebuild there and have everything on one campus. Open air, partially covered, with those cool red lights for night games. 

 

 

You want to talk about wasting money? Spend $500M-$1B building an open-air stadium in the suburbs.

 

New stadium will go downtown, and it will be enclosed so it can be used for more than 8-10 days a year. We already need a new convention center, boom there is your new convention center too.

 

And just like they built Lucas Oil Field in Indy to match the surrounding warehouses and industrial buildings, they can build the new stadium to match Buffalo's existing architecture.

[Punching Bag]

Sure more than 8-10 days a year. Bills draft, occasional home playoff game, etc. I hope no one is counting on revenue for these other events.

[buffalobillsfootball]

13 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

You want to talk about wasting money? Spend $500M-$1B building an open-air stadium in the suburbs.

 

New stadium will go downtown, and it will be enclosed so it can be used for more than 8-10 days a year. We already need a new convention center, boom there is your new convention center too.

 

And just like they built Lucas Oil Field in Indy to match the surrounding warehouses and industrial buildings, they can build the new stadium to match Buffalo's existing architecture.

 

You had me up until you suggested we mimic Lucas Oil Field. Buffalo already has WAY TOO MANY old, authentic warehouse and industrial buildings.

 

Why Micky Mouse it when we could design something that is bold and architecturally modern?

 

I cringe every time I see Lucas Oil and Ford Field.   

[DrDawkinstein]

11 minutes ago, buffalobillsfootball said:

 

You had me up until you suggested we mimic Lucas Oil Field. Buffalo already has WAY TOO MANY old, authentic warehouse and industrial buildings.

 

Why Micky Mouse it when we could design something that is bold and architecturally modern?

 

I cringe every time I see Lucas Oil and Ford Field.   

 

Differing opinions.

 

And I'm not saying it has to look like Lucas Oil, just that it doesnt HAVE to look like Minn's new US Bank Stadium or Atlanta's new MB Stadium which would be out of place and possibly tacky in Buffalo (although I personally do like both of those stadiums). Point is, there isn't a rule on how it has to be designed. Heck they could tie in some Frank Lloyd Wright aspects and have it look modern yet still very "Buffalo".

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

14 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Not a big deal to you because you're likely not one of the 55K+ season ticket holders. You want to be the guy to tell half of them they aren't going get their seats for a year? It would make more sense to play at Penn State's Stadium.

 

But this is a moot discussion because I'm convinced they will not go the renovation route. Why? Because half the stadium is buried in the ground and you can't expand the concourses there.

 

All signs point downtown.

 

 

 

Yep - Major infrastructure changes will need to take place... Lot of public money will have to be poured into this whether the pegulas are buying the stadium or not.  I do think since PSLs probably don't work here to the extent they need to, public money will get put into it.  

 

Conway park would be my pick?  Build some moveable bridges, and you have a ton of parking.  Rip down the projects and you have even more - plus what you have for sabres games etc.  I would assume a garage is on the table?  Maybe another hotel - near the casino?  There is a lot to think about there.

[buffalobillsfootball]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Differing opinions.

 

And I'm not saying it has to look like Lucas Oil, just that it doesnt HAVE to look like Minn's new US Bank Stadium or Atlanta's new MB Stadium which would be out of place and possibly tacky in Buffalo (although I personally do like both of those stadiums). Point is, there isn't a rule on how it has to be designed. Heck they could tie in some Frank Lloyd Wright aspects and have it look modern yet still very "Buffalo".

 

Yep - definitely different opinions and perspectives.  And I agree it doesn't have to imitate US Bank or Mercedes Benz stadiums - but I'm just not a fan of mimicking authentic architecture we already have here.  It's fake.

 

With that said - I always liked the look of this concept:

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Differing opinions.

 

And I'm not saying it has to look like Lucas Oil, just that it doesnt HAVE to look like Minn's new US Bank Stadium or Atlanta's new MB Stadium which would be out of place and possibly tacky in Buffalo (although I personally do like both of those stadiums). Point is, there isn't a rule on how it has to be designed. Heck they could tie in some Frank Lloyd Wright aspects and have it look modern yet still very "Buffalo".

 

I like the Frank Lloyd Wright idea - or maybe a modern take on art deco to sync up with city hall?  I dunno - something with some character i suppose.  I just dont like the idea of like - full on replicating it.  Like - modernize it.  Use it for inspiration.  

Edited February 11, 2020 by dneveu